nba chase 12/13

[lapi7]

You're only adding to the "off topic posts", and now I am too!

Oh yeah? Well I happen to know a dog who once saw a chicken with lips kiss a giant green gorillia who once saw a man eat his own head !!! Now I'd lay -113 any day for more information like that !!!

.

[tr4sh]

That was my other suggestion. But the way my luck went last year, I missed three bets, tried that each time, and by the luck of the bet gods, lost two series at a higher rate. I know it was just a freak coincidence, but it soured me on upping my bets.

First off, I want to state to @TheJettylife that 3 units in the big spectrum of gambling in general is nothing. Unless you're going to hit and run and never gamble again, I don't think 3 missed units here/there is something you should ever trouble yourself with.

However just for the sake of continuing our convo, *theoretically* as long as you have the bankroll to sustain the losses and bet every series, betting to win more units per series will net you more money (as long as the system is successful obviously). Based on our current situation (4 months to go in this season with 2 losses already) there's a very high probability that my suggestion will win him back the 3 units considering the last 5-6 years of backtest.

Here's some simple calculation so @TheJettylife can have some numbers to go by which are specific to our current situation.

The system over the past 6 years has averaged +146 units. We are currently at +43 units for the system. Lets prepare for the worst scenario and pick the worst season (+121 units) and predict a worse season than that at roughly ~100 units for season. This projects us to net an extra ~57 units the rest of the season. This system loses ~4 series per season. With 2 losses (2 by stifler's lines and 3 by covers lines?) already, we would probably lose 2 more the rest of the season (2 * 18.45 = 36.9). Based on those numbers, system is projected to lose 37 units and net 57 which means the record for the system from now till end of season is projected to be 94 wins and 2 losses. Essentially a win/loss ratio of 48:1.

Now lets look at what win/loss ratio you need in order to gain more units when betting to win 1.1 units per series. You win 0.1 extra unit and lose 1.84 extra units (20.29 per loss compared to 18.45) per win/loss. Essentially, when betting to win 1.1 units per series, you need to win 19 series per 1 loss in order to have better results than betting to win 1 unit. 19:1 win/loss ratio. Obviously 48:1 is much better than 19:1.

Based on 94/2 projection for the rest of the season, here are actual calculations between 1 and 1.1.

94 * 1 = 94 unit gain
2 * 18.45 = 36.9 unit loss
94 - 36.9 = 57.1 net

94 * 1.1 = 103.4 unit gain
2 * 20.29 = 40.58 unit loss
103.4 - 40.58 = 62.82 net

So it's projected to win ~5 extra units. Obviously, please consider this is solely based on the belief that this system will produce similar but slightly worse results than the past 6 years. Hope this helps in any way.

[Stifler]

03.01.2013

S1

(A Bet) SA: Spurs +1 1,10u


________________________________________ ________________________________________ ____________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

[Stifler]

btw, my thoughts on buying 0.5 points for every game. I dont like it overall. I already said something about that earlier. For any accurate proof this should be backtested, but i will never start buying a half point anyway. I just did some long run maths.

buying a half point @ -118 odds will end in a total series loss of -21,59 units overall, not the mentioned -20,... Means we are losing like 3,14 units more on a series.

bet stages would be:

A: 1,18u to win 1u
B: 2,57u to win 2,18u
C: 5,61u to win 4,75u
D: 12,23u to win 10,36u

This 3,14 units extra loss needs to be covered. Every 5,87 series loss needs to be returned into a win to break even with the standard -110 chase. Im thinking out of 10 series losses u should win 1 or 2 more series when buying 0.5 points on every game (just my individual thought). That pretty much will break even with the -110 chase, so personally im not seeing every 2nd or 3rd series-outcome will be changed with buying 0.5 points. Thats why i will always stay with the -110 lines.

[lapi7]

Sorry...double post.

.

[Wallco99]

Not understanding why people just can't play stiffler's posted plays.....

Because he has nothing better to do but sit in here all day and spew self-invented stats and off topic rhetoric.

[Grinder12000]

You don't have to be an ass you know!! Happy New Year.

[Wallco99]

You don't have to be an ass you know!! Happy New Year.

Did that boy with the glowing tooth just eat Lincoln?....Where the F is Lincoln? He does look like the clown who was pointing at Lincoln though!

[Grinder12000]

Wow. Look who,is posting pure garbage now. Perhaps you should practice what you preach. You are spewing more garbage then me now.

[thelimit0310]

Weird, the Spurs at my book were the favorite at -1, not +1. Though due to my schedule i was only able to snag the closing line.

[J.M. Disciple]

I got -1 as well, but friends book had +1. Just depends on bookie...

[rustie]

Pinny had Spurs at +1

[Stifler]

03.01.2013

S1

(A Bet) SA: Spurs +1 1,10u

records:
S1: W 33 | L 2 (-3,90 units)
S2: W 15 | L 0 (+15,00 units)
S3: W 9 | L 0 (+9,00 units)
S4: W 22 | L 0 (+23,00 units)

pending:
- S2 Orl, B Bet on 07.01.2013
- S4 Tor fade, C Bet on 04.01.2013
- S1 Mil, B Bet on 04.01.2013
- S1 SA, B Bet on 05.01.2013


________________________________________ ________________________________________ ____________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

[Stifler]

04.01.2013

S1

(B Bet) Mil: Milwaukee +5,5 1,10u | Milwaukee - waiting on line movement
(A Bet) Tor: Toronto - waiting on line movement

S2

(A Bet) Cle: Cleveland - no line up atm

S4

(C Bet) Tor fade: Orlando -4 1,10u | Portland +4 2,31u | Sacramento +7 4,85u
(A Bet) Mia fade: Chicago - waiting on line movement


________________________________________ ______________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

[vigster]

Cle line up @ +1.5

[Stifler]

- Milwaukee, Toronto and Cleveland line added.

04.01.2013

S1

(B Bet) Mil: Milwaukee +5,5 1,10u | Milwaukee -1 2,31u
(A Bet) Tor: Toronto -6,5 1,10u

S2

(A Bet) Cle: Cleveland +1,5 1,10u

S4

(C Bet) Tor fade: Orlando -4 1,10u | Portland +4 2,31u | Sacramento +7 4,85u
(A Bet) Mia fade: Chicago - waiting on line movement


________________________________________ ______________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

[sbrhgary]

Miami fade (S4) again? Didn't we win with Dallas recently.

[kilrathi]

Miami fade (S4) again? Didn't we win with Dallas recently.

was an OT game again ... so i guess the chase starts another time...

[ColdBeerHere]

Stifler, bankroll management question....You said on the first page of your thread that you play somewhere around 2% of your bankroll.....Do you use the same # for the whole season even though you bankroll increases.....ie:$20 for the whole season even though BR may have doubled from 1k to 2k......

Or do you increases your wager # at some point....say if BR would go from 1k to 2k, then you increase wager to $40 ?

[Just Enough]

Because he has nothing better to do but sit in here all day and spew self-invented stats and off topic rhetoric.

ok....was just wondering. thanks bro.

[J.M. Disciple]

Stifler, bankroll management question....You said on the first page of your thread that you play somewhere around 2% of your bankroll.....Do you use the same # for the whole season even though you bankroll increases.....ie:$20 for the whole season even though BR may have doubled from 1k to 2k......

Or do you increases your wager # at some point....say if BR would go from 1k to 2k, then you increase wager to $40 ?

Bad Idea to use 2% as a unit size in a 4 game chase. Talking about losing 30% of your bankroll on a single series. Say you win 50 units over half the season, then 2nd half you increase your bankroll unit size from $20 to $40. You take a hit and 34 units you earned are gone in one series. You would have too much of your bankroll in play on any given day.

Best advice is to keep your unit size the same through out the season and play 1-3 systems at a time. So if one takes a hit the others will make up for it. Also take note at 2% some series C & D bets over lap with systems, there for if you had a 2% unit size you would be losing close to 60% of your bankroll on a single series.

Dont be greedy.

[Stifler]

Stifler, bankroll management question....You said on the first page of your thread that you play somewhere around 2% of your bankroll.....Do you use the same # for the whole season even though you bankroll increases.....ie:$20 for the whole season even though BR may have doubled from 1k to 2k......

Or do you increases your wager # at some point....say if BR would go from 1k to 2k, then you increase wager to $40 ?

my advice is to play with atleast 50 units for the nba chase, talking about mlb chase i would even start with 70+ units. I started with 3000€ and 1u=50€, but i also play sweetjones for 1u=100€. I had (still have) 1500€ in future plays. So i just started with around 1500€. But im doing this cause i know what im doing and i dont need any bankroll management advice. For everyone starting the chase i would say start with atleast 50units. Personally im probably always starting with like 50units.
I never change my unit size during a season, i will increase my unit size next season if everything is working out this year. Increasing the units midway is a bad idea in my opinion.

[overcome]

time to take chicago at +7

[olmec]

time to take chicago at +7

think so

[Spartacuss]

Just use 1% and u can increase or decrease as your roll moves.

[Stifler]

- Bulls line added.

04.01.2013

S1

(B Bet) Mil: Milwaukee +5,5 1,10u | Milwaukee -1 2,31u
(A Bet) Tor: Toronto -6,5 1,10u

S2

(A Bet) Cle: Cleveland +1,5 1,10u

S4

(C Bet) Tor fade: Orlando -4 1,10u | Portland +4 2,31u | Sacramento +7 4,85u
(A Bet) Mia fade: Chicago +7 1,10u


________________________________________ ______________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

[sbrhgary]

C bet Sac is cash.
A bet Cle is cash.
Waiting on B bet Mil and A bet Chi and they looking good.

[Riceboi]

bucks looking shaky, hope they pull through.

[Stifler]

04.01.2013

S1

(B Bet) Mil: Milwaukee +5,5 1,10u | Milwaukee -1 2,31u
(A Bet) Tor: Toronto -6,5 1,10u

S2

(A Bet) Cle: Cleveland +1,5 1,10u

S4

(C Bet) Tor fade: Orlando -4 1,10u | Portland +4 2,31u | Sacramento +7 4,85u
(A Bet) Mia fade: Chicago +7 1,10u

records:
S1: W 33 | L 2 (-3,90 units)
S2: W 16 | L 0 (+16,00 units)
S3: W 9 | L 0 (+9,00 units)
S4: W 24 | L 0 (+25,00 units)

pending:
- S2 Orl, B Bet on 07.01.2013
- S1 Mil, C Bet on 05.01.2013
- S1 SA, B Bet on 05.01.2013
- S1 Tor, B Bet on 06.01.2013


________________________________________ ________________________________________ ____________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

[oldscho0led]

S4 = money

[overcome]

not liking the milwaukee bet tomorrow.

[gamewinninglv]

not liking the milwaukee bet tomorrow.

Does that mean the Bucks will cover easily tomorrow ?

[overcome]

lol i hope so.. im still going to continue the chase

[thefonzo]

Post edited, question answered

[Stifler]

05.01.2013

S1

(C Bet) Mil: Milwaukee +5,5 1,10u | Milwaukee -1 2,31u | Milwaukee - waiting on line movement
(B Bet) SA: Spurs +1 1,10u | Spurs - waiting on line lovement

S2

(A Bet) Bos fade: Atlanta - waiting on line movement

S3

(A Bet) Ind: Indiana -4 1,10u

S4

(A Bet) Dal fade: New Orleans - waiting on line movement



________________________________________ ________________________________________ ____________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586