nba chase 12/13

[tjohnstone3]

I back tested 10 years (could have gone 25 but lets not get anal LOL) and added some teams, for instance - I added Lakers LOSING streaks as they are 72-2. Portland is on my list (93-1) but I'm not sure I recommend veering from the StifChase. A friend of mine is using Stiflers system in a reverse labby and on paper he has won a TON!

BTW - I do have EVERY NBA Teams S1 record this year and it's 62-3. 30-2 WIN 30-1 fade

tjohn - if it's not too hard I would love to see StifChase broken down to WIN/Fade streaks - if it's a hassle no biggie - I'll do it myself. I'm working a Buying Half Point post (not here I'll post it elsewhere) as I have 30,000 games of pointspread data I'm churning over.

Here are the follow/fade numbers. Omitted the S4 because those are obviously all fades.

Follow					Fade
S1	W	L	PCT		S1	W	L	PCT
A Bet	4	6	40.0%		A Bet	5	8	38.5%
B Bet	5	1	83.3%		B Bet	4	4	50.0%
C Bet	1		100.0%		C Bet	1	3	25.0%
D Bet			#DIV/0!		D Bet	2	1	66.7%
S2	W	L	PCT		S2	W	L	PCT
A Bet	3	2	60.0%		A Bet	5	1	83.3%
B Bet	1		100.0%		B Bet		1	0.0%
C Bet			#DIV/0!		C Bet		1	0.0%
D Bet			#DIV/0!		D Bet	1		100.0%
S3	W	L	PCT		S3	W	L	PCT
A Bet	2	1	66.7%		A Bet	1	3	25.0%
B Bet	1		100.0%		B Bet	1	2	33.3%
C Bet			#DIV/0!		C Bet	2		100.0%
D Bet			#DIV/0!		D Bet			#DIV/0!
Total	W	L	PCT		Total	W	L	PCT
A Bet	9	9	50.0%		A Bet	11	12	47.8%
B Bet	7	1	87.5%		B Bet	5	7	41.7%
C Bet	1	0	100.0%		C Bet	3	4	42.9%
D Bet	0	0	#DIV/0!		D Bet	3	1	75.0%

[Grinder12000]

gamewinninglv - corrected - oops - wrong little thing I was looking at.

The above chart. I find it interesting how FADE S1 and FADE S2 are so different. Pretty low numbers. I love this stuff. Numbers ROCK!

[gamewinninglv]

Thank you for the SBR point Mr. Grinder

[Grinder12000]

It was nice being corrected in an adult fashion without name calling.

[J.M. Disciple]

Grinder what did you play for online poker? HU, sh, fr, mtt? Just wondering why you had so many different poker sites when you could just use pokerstars.

[gamewinninglv]

It was nice being corrected in an adult fashion without name calling.

[jimmy007oc]

Alert!!! If Knicks win this 3Q. Bet Laker on 4Q guys !!!!!

[Grinder12000]

Since it's a slow night - Pokerstars - horrible place to play - tight aggressive. I never did well there - to many good players. I did much better at the smaller European sites and with their monthly $100 Euro bonuses it was easy money. I started playing online in 1998 when there was only one online poker room.

I used to write a monthly article for Full Tilt Magazine and was a bonus whore and would review different sites. Basically I would get a "new account bonus" - play the required number of hands, cash out an move on unless I really liked the place.

Did that with internet casinos also. Put in $100, get a free $100 and play 2000 hands of perfect blackjack. 38 casinos had bonuses and only once did I lose money. One time I swear they were cheating and I took my final $20 and played a loser game - video poker!! Hit a Royal Flush LOL

I used to have Poker Tracker which blew up after I played 1.4 million hands. I was playing 8000 hands a week. I believe Poker Tracker really hurt poker. All I play now is Bovada.

BUT - I'm looking to do a little Sportsbook whoring now. Some "ok" bonuses out there. Not like the old days. Absolute Poker had a bonus - 100%, play 5 hands, leave your money in for 30 days max of $300. That was it. It was AMAZING!!

[msetai]

Alert!!! If Knicks win this 3Q. Bet Laker on 4Q guys !!!!!

this lost, right?

[LakeShow]

i have went through this thread in an attempt to learn the system..i think i have a decent grasp, but what is the difference between s1 and s2??

thanks in advance

[jimmy007oc]

this lost, right?

Lakers won 3Q so there was no bet for this system !!!

[laca07]

i have went through this thread in an attempt to learn the system..i think i have a decent grasp, but what is the difference between s1 and s2??

thanks in advance

S1: Whenever a team has a winning or losing streak of 3 games start the 4 game chase following that streak.

S2: Whenever a team has a winning or losing streak of 3 games start the 4 game chase following that streak. Divide in home/road games.

---

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #786

[LakeShow]

S1: Whenever a team has a winning or losing streak of 3 games start the 4 game chase following that streak.

S2: Whenever a team has a winning or losing streak of 3 games start the 4 game chase following that streak. Divide in home/road games.

---

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #786

i guess the dividing home/road game rule is what i dont understand..thanks in advance

[Asset]

I got a question about quarterly bets. For example, if I bet on a quarter, doesn't the points that I take or minus is ONLY for that upcoming quarter? I'm assuming not. So lets say after the 3rd quarter, I take for example team A +2.5. This +2.5 is added to the ending total score at the end of the game correct? It's not only for the 4th quarter points.

[LakeShow]

am i right to think the system tells me to fade Dal due to the OT game yesterday against Bos?

[fooubar]

There are a ton of things you can do with what Stifler started here.
I'm not going into details, but I have 3 times as many plays as Stifler posts here and that is only using S1 type of plays.

[Stifler]

Since it's a slow night - Pokerstars - horrible place to play - tight aggressive. I never did well there - to many good players. I did much better at the smaller European sites and with their monthly $100 Euro bonuses it was easy money. I started playing online in 1998 when there was only one online poker room.

ur playing sbr poker aswell? Cause i do...i qualified for the championship final tomorrow. Will see how far i can get there.

I got a question about quarterly bets. For example, if I bet on a quarter, doesn't the points that I take or minus is ONLY for that upcoming quarter? I'm assuming not. So lets say after the 3rd quarter, I take for example team A +2.5. This +2.5 is added to the ending total score at the end of the game correct? It's not only for the 4th quarter points.

Depends what ur playing. If ur playing the quarter spreads only the quarters count. If ur playing the live-spread for the full game, full game counts. As most bookies dont offer live 4Q bets after the 3rd Q u can also play the live spread for the game. This works here cause we are in the last quarter, for every other quarter it would make a difference.

am i right to think the system tells me to fade Dal due to the OT game yesterday against Bos?

right, i will post the games sooner or later.

[Asset]

Oh okay I was right then. Thank-you for confirming it for me Stif Like alwayz keep up the good work

[Stifler]

14.12.2012

S1

(A Bet) Mil: Milwaukee -2,5 1,10u
(A Bet) Utah: Utah -1,5 1,10u

S4

(A Bet) Dal fade: Toronto +5,5 1,10u


________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #786

[mcrisp]

is bos (b bet) (s2) applicable for 12-14-12?

[Stifler]

is bos (b bet) (s2) applicable for 12-14-12?

pending:
- S2 Bos, B Bet on 19.12.2012

Posted 1 page before. They had their winning streak @ home, so we will just play them @ home for S2.

[samcro1]

Best of luck tomorrow guys!!

[mcrisp]

oh i get it! thank you sir stifler! i honestly respect this system cuz it really works!

[okbyme123]

[QUOTE=Stifler;17118268]ur playing sbr poker aswell? Cause i do...i qualified for the championship final tomorrow. Will see how far i can get there.

Good Luck tomorrow Sir Stifler! Please let us know how you finished?

[Asset]

Best of luck tomorrow guys!!

Not today?

@Stif: good luck on your game tomorrow, you probably don't need it LOL

[LakeShow]

i think i get it..except s2, can someone give me a real time example of an s2 bet? please explain why bos on 12/19 will be s2? how do we do the calculations on "divide Home/away" games?

thanks

[Asset]

i think i get it..except s2, can someone give me a real time example of an s2 bet? please explain why bos on 12/19 will be s2? how do we do the calculations on "divide Home/away" games?

thanks

Ok, take a look at these dates over at covers.com 11/30, 12/05, and 12/08. It's all W correct? And it's all @home. Now we chase ONLY @home games until we win or lose the chase. I was exactly like you when I first hopped on board. I hope this helps

@Stif: I hope you don't mind me answering the Q for you

[LakeShow]

Ok, take a look at these dates over at covers.com 11/30, 12/05, and 12/08. It's all W correct? And it's all @home. Now we chase ONLY @home games until we win or lose the chase. I was exactly like you when I first hopped on board. I hope this helps

@Stif: I hope you don't mind me answering the Q for you

perfect, thanks!

[Snort909]

Im new 2 stiflers system so is utah, Milwaukee, toronto the picks for tonight, Is S1 or S4 better odds?

[laca07]

Im new 2 stiflers system so is utah, Milwaukee, toronto the picks for tonight, Is S1 or S4 better odds?

yes, they are the picks. S1 & S4 are different chase systems.

post 786 has all the info you should need. BOL.

[Grinder12000]

Buying a 1/2 point at home - the actual numbers!

There has been some talk about buying a half point to get better odds in the NBA. Not being one to just take someones word for it I wanted to see the actual numbers. So I took the last 10 (I wanted to still be in the long shorts era) years of all NBA games and started to do all sorts of number crunching.

I'm done with the HOME version.

The chart below has W/L for each line. The main thing to look at are the right side columns which are how many units +/- that particular line is.

Notice that in SOME cases it is better to buy a 1/2 point. However is it just an anomaly? is there a reason behind those certain numbers?

It is assumed that you are paying -110 for the regular bet and -120 for the half point.

Any thoughts? AWAY soon . .

HOME FAVS of 9 stand out to me!! RIGHT CLICK - View Image - Ctrl - wheel up to enlarge.

[Nino7]

Buying a 1/2 point at home - the actual numbers!

There has been some talk about buying a half point to get better odds in the NBA. Not being one to just take someones word for it I wanted to see the actual numbers. So I took the last 10 (I wanted to still be in the long shorts era) years of all NBA games and started to do all sorts of number crunching.

I'm done with the HOME version.

The chart below has W/L for each line. The main thing to look at are the right side columns which are how many units +/- that particular line is.

Notice that in SOME cases it is better to buy a 1/2 point. However is it just an anomaly? is there a reason behind those certain numbers?

It is assumed that you are paying -110 for the regular bet and -120 for the half point.

Any thoughts? AWAY soon . .

HOME FAVS of 9 stand out to me!! RIGHT CLICK - View Image - Ctrl - wheel up to enlarge.

These stats are good for straight bets but you can't apply this logic for chase systems.I mean when you chase it's about winning 1 out of 4 games and buying half a point can make the difference between +1 unit and -18,45 units so its different in my opinion.
Yes a serie consist of 4 staight bets but they are linked somehow cuze if one of them wins it turns the other 3 in to a win also.

[J.M. Disciple]

Since it's a slow night - Pokerstars - horrible place to play - tight aggressive. I never did well there - to many good players. I did much better at the smaller European sites and with their monthly $100 Euro bonuses it was easy money. I started playing online in 1998 when there was only one online poker room.

I used to write a monthly article for Full Tilt Magazine and was a bonus whore and would review different sites. Basically I would get a "new account bonus" - play the required number of hands, cash out an move on unless I really liked the place.

Did that with internet casinos also. Put in $100, get a free $100 and play 2000 hands of perfect blackjack. 38 casinos had bonuses and only once did I lose money. One time I swear they were cheating and I took my final $20 and played a loser game - video poker!! Hit a Royal Flush LOL

I used to have Poker Tracker which blew up after I played 1.4 million hands. I was playing 8000 hands a week. I believe Poker Tracker really hurt poker. All I play now is Bovada.

BUT - I'm looking to do a little Sportsbook whoring now. Some "ok" bonuses out there. Not like the old days. Absolute Poker had a bonus - 100%, play 5 hands, leave your money in for 30 days max of $300. That was it. It was AMAZING!!

Coworker was telling me of a casino where there is a $1,000 bonus. They would just play baccarat and match each others bet, one on Banker and other on Player. Once the number of hands or money was met they would just leave. He did it 2-3 months back. I maybe way off on the bonus, but I did hear $1,000. It could be like 20% of starting with $1,000 not sure. Near central Cali though.

[J.M. Disciple]

These stats are good for straight bets but you can't apply this logic for chase systems.I mean when you chase it's about winning 1 out of 4 games and buying half a point can make the difference between +1 unit and -18,45 units so its different in my opinion.
Yes a serie consist of 4 staight bets but they are linked somehow cuze if one of them wins it turns the other 3 in to a win also.

I think someone has a system based on point spreads, so I wouldn't say it is totally different. It is just a 3 tier chase... I think Chillidog post the systems, but I maybe wrong. Look under service plays.

[Grinder12000]

Nino7. you missed the point. I was saying that buying a point does not really do anything. But yea- this is more for straight betting I suppose.

But you do suggest a person should ALWAYS buy a half point right? no matter what? If it's free it would be silly not to ALWAYS buy a half point. .

IN THEORY - you could be correct. And if so why doesn't everybody always buy a half point ( a serious question??)