nba chase 12/13

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  • olmec
    SBR Hustler
    • 11-30-12
    • 50

    #4586
    I have a question to Stifler or the other system chasers;

    -- It is my first year that chasing the system, so I wonder that how is going the system if we compare the other years (considering middle of the March)

    --Second question to Stifler; When do you think to start MBL chase? (That will be my first baseball bet, in my betting history)
    Comment
    • samrock67
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 05-05-12
      • 647

      #4587
      Originally posted by olmec
      I have a question to Stifler or the other system chasers;

      -- It is my first year that chasing the system, so I wonder that how is going the system if we compare the other years (considering middle of the March)

      --Second question to Stifler; When do you think to start MBL chase? (That will be my first baseball bet, in my betting history)
      Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe this is the first "live" year of the system. It is underperfoming compared to the backtested results, but I know that Stifler has already mentioned that he has some tweaks for the system for next year.

      The MLB chase will start up soon as the first game is slated for 4/1.
      Comment
      • dalogester
        SBR MVP
        • 01-02-13
        • 1088

        #4588
        clippers line is -12 right now... thoughts stif?
        Last edited by dalogester; 03-17-13, 09:31 AM.
        Comment
        • samrock67
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 05-05-12
          • 647

          #4589
          Originally posted by dalogester
          clippers line is -12 right now... thoughts stif?
          Stif will post when he thinks the line is good...as always
          Comment
          • dalogester
            SBR MVP
            • 01-02-13
            • 1088

            #4590
            Sure samrock, but I got Brooklyn at -4 as well.
            Comment
            • samrock67
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 05-05-12
              • 647

              #4591
              I wasn't saying the lines don't change in our favor sometimes after Stifler has already posted...but I am sure that Stifler is constantly checking the lines to look for movement. Besides, more often than not the little line movement that there is during the day won't have much of an impact.
              Comment
              • Stifler
                SBR MVP
                • 11-11-09
                • 3511

                #4592
                - Clippers line added.

                17.03.2013

                S1

                (C Bet) Atl fade: Lakers +1 1,10u | Phoenix +9 2,31u | Brooklyn -4,5 4,85u
                (A Bet) NYK fade: Clippers -13 1,10u

                S2

                (A Bet) Atl fade: Brooklyn -4,5 1,10u



                ________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

                all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586
                Comment
                • dalogester
                  SBR MVP
                  • 01-02-13
                  • 1088

                  #4593
                  I gotcha, stiflers better at reading line movement then me anyways, im a rookie. I think I got lucky on this one. At least the rest of you guys didn't lose.
                  Comment
                  • easysaid
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 05-18-12
                    • 690

                    #4594
                    with the NYK fade do we continue with the B bet or scrap the whole thing?
                    Comment
                    • miczz14
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 01-22-13
                      • 146

                      #4595
                      what does it mean when the lines is getting lower? example, -4.5 went to -4
                      Comment
                      • parlay100
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 09-23-09
                        • 117

                        #4596
                        Originally posted by Grinder12000
                        System for sure. I know I suck at most sports, my emotions get in the way. Ill place maybe 1/2u on emotion plays ( which seem to win) but I know my limitations. Find a system, play it till it breaks down and move on.

                        long run yea, but the key is knowing when to pull the plug and when to press.

                        MY only system is the NFL and its worked for 21 years but only about 40 plays a year.
                        I love that kind of backtest. Willing to share or top secret?
                        Comment
                        • John Deere
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 10-19-11
                          • 581

                          #4597
                          Sick...
                          An other D bets.
                          Comment
                          • illisdre
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 06-22-12
                            • 360

                            #4598
                            ya well .. i dug myself a deeper whole... thinking +4.5 was good at 4th quarter live.
                            ..wtf.. are all these games plagued?? like consistently something goes wack.
                            Comment
                            • John Deere
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 10-19-11
                              • 581

                              #4599
                              Mavs tomorrow !
                              Comment
                              • ABOSSSGAME
                                SBR Rookie
                                • 11-13-12
                                • 23

                                #4600
                                hopefully this D can shoot though
                                Comment
                                • zonedog
                                  SBR Rookie
                                  • 10-08-10
                                  • 28

                                  #4601
                                  Mavs will be playing their 4th game in 5 days and that 4th game is on the road against a good team. Memphis was in the same situation against Utah (a team they beat by double digit prior twice) on Saturday where they ran out gas in the 4th quarter and lost. Just saying...
                                  Comment
                                  • Stifler
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 11-11-09
                                    • 3511

                                    #4602
                                    Originally posted by Stifler
                                    17.03.2013

                                    S1

                                    (C Bet) Atl fade: Lakers +1 1,10u | Phoenix +9 2,31u | Brooklyn -4,5 4,85u
                                    (A Bet) NYK fade: Clippers -13 1,10u

                                    S2

                                    (A Bet) Atl fade: Brooklyn -4,5 1,10u

                                    records:
                                    S1: W 69 | L 4 (- 4,80 units)
                                    S2: W 36 | L 3 (-19,35 units)
                                    S3: W 22 | L 0 (+22,00 units)
                                    S4: W 47 | L 1 (+30,55 units)
                                    additional:
                                    -1,10 units Den fade
                                    -3,41 units S4 Tor fade > closing line covers


                                    pending:
                                    - S1 Atl fade, D Bet on 18.03.2013
                                    - S2 Bos, C Bet on 20.03.2013
                                    - S2 Atl fade, B Bet on 24.03.2013
                                    - S1 NYK fade, new A Bet on 18.03.2013

                                    ________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

                                    all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586
                                    Comment
                                    • olmec
                                      SBR Hustler
                                      • 11-30-12
                                      • 50

                                      #4603
                                      records:

                                      2006/07: 227-5 (+131,75 units)
                                      2007/08: 217-2 (+180,10 units)
                                      2008/09: 232-6 (+121,30 units)
                                      2009/10: 240-4 (+166,20 units)
                                      2010/11: 211-3 (+155,65 units)
                                      2011/12: 181-3 (+125,65 units)

                                      2012/13: 174-8 (+28,40 units) -till today- (not counting additional stuff)

                                      For this year, we already have 8 loses. I think this is the worst year for the system. Hope that no more lose till the end of the regular season
                                      Comment
                                      • Stifler
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 11-11-09
                                        • 3511

                                        #4604
                                        18.03.2013

                                        S1


                                        (D Bet) Atl fade: Lakers +1 1,10u | Phoenix +9 2,31u | Brooklyn -4,5 4,85u | Dallas - waiting on lm
                                        (A Bet) NYK fade: Utah - no line up atm
                                        (A Bet) Atl: Atlanta -3 1,10u

                                        S2

                                        (A Bet) Utah: Utah - no line up atm


                                        ________________________________________ ________________________________________

                                        all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586
                                        Comment
                                        • Grinder12000
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 04-21-11
                                          • 1809

                                          #4605
                                          (A Bet) NYK fade: Clippers -13 1,10u
                                          (A Bet) NYK fade: Utah should be a (B) bet.

                                          That is actually a loss if you are playing the System. Closing line was -13.5

                                          Just say'in
                                          Comment
                                          • John Deere
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 10-19-11
                                            • 581

                                            #4606
                                            WTF Utah-10. Am I missing something ?
                                            Comment
                                            • Stifler
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 11-11-09
                                              • 3511

                                              #4607
                                              - Dallas line added.

                                              18.03.2013

                                              S1

                                              (D Bet) Atl fade: Lakers +1 1,10u | Phoenix +9 2,31u | Brooklyn -4,5 4,85u | Dallas +4 10,19u
                                              (A Bet) NYK fade: Utah - no line up atm
                                              (A Bet) Atl: Atlanta -3 1,10u

                                              S2

                                              (A Bet) Utah: Utah - no line up atm


                                              ________________________________________ ________________________________________

                                              all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586
                                              Comment
                                              • dalogester
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 01-02-13
                                                • 1088

                                                #4608
                                                You realize ny is tending down big time and probably without 2 best players vs a very good home Utah team that needs wins. -10 isn't so bad..
                                                Comment
                                                • Nino7
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 07-11-09
                                                  • 798

                                                  #4609
                                                  Originally posted by olmec
                                                  records:

                                                  2006/07: 227-5 (+131,75 units)
                                                  2007/08: 217-2 (+180,10 units)
                                                  2008/09: 232-6 (+121,30 units)
                                                  2009/10: 240-4 (+166,20 units)
                                                  2010/11: 211-3 (+155,65 units)
                                                  2011/12: 181-3 (+125,65 units)

                                                  2012/13: 174-8 (+28,40 units) -till today- (not counting additional stuff)

                                                  For this year, we already have 8 loses. I think this is the worst year for the system. Hope that no more lose till the end of the regular season
                                                  I assume that the backest results are not reliable because after the selections criterions were set up,the selection of the eligible teams for the systems were established on the basis of the backtest results in the purpose of virtually improving them.
                                                  Stifler tryed to build some good systems here but i assume that setting up any selection on the basis of the backtests rather than backtesting the whole of the selection criterions is a mistake.
                                                  What you guys think?
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Stifler
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 11-11-09
                                                    • 3511

                                                    #4610
                                                    - Utah line added.

                                                    18.03.2013

                                                    S1

                                                    (D Bet) Atl fade: Lakers +1 1,10u | Phoenix +9 2,31u | Brooklyn -4,5 4,85u | Dallas +4 10,19u
                                                    (A Bet) NYK fade: Utah -10 1,10u
                                                    (A Bet) Atl: Atlanta -3 1,10u

                                                    S2

                                                    (A Bet) Utah: Utah -10 1,10u


                                                    ________________________________________ ________________________________________

                                                    all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586
                                                    Comment
                                                    • TensionX1
                                                      SBR Hustler
                                                      • 02-23-13
                                                      • 79

                                                      #4611
                                                      Hey, what does the bold red team mean? Your solid pick?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • thelimit0310
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 01-24-11
                                                        • 1233

                                                        #4612
                                                        It's just been a bad season, every system I've looked at is underperforming many are in the red. Makes me glad that we are less than a month out from wrapping things up, I need to wash this season off with some MLB.

                                                        We are actually at 9 losses for the season Stifler is not counting one that he won but lost on Covers
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Stifler
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 11-11-09
                                                          • 3511

                                                          #4613
                                                          Reading some of the last posts im thinking most of u are professionals. Just reading some of the last posts feels like im down -50 units. Looks like most of u guys easily make 50+ units every nba/mlb season.

                                                          Im glad i can deal with the backtested numbers. I never expect to come out as strong as the backtested numbers, if im doing it its a monster season. U guys need to realize finishing a season with +100 or more is such a big achievement in sports betting. Those backtested numbers look that good because i simply choose the best records after backtesting all numbers. If i would have started next season i probably would have different teams on every system. I just feel good losing some extra series will still end in the + zone, thats the only thing i really like on those backtested numbers, cause i know i cant finish that strong every season. Hell, if someone is telling me a bad season will still end with like lets say +30 units, believe me im the first one signing this. I even would sign a constantly +50 units. This is still sports betting not tic tac toe!


                                                          (A Bet) NYK fade: Utah should be a (B) bet.

                                                          That is actually a loss if you are playing the System. Closing line was -13.5
                                                          I aleady said im playing live lines, those closing lines on covers are just important to indicate plays. Those closing lines have nothing to do with any lines anyone is getting. As soon as u place the bet u have to live with the line you locked in. The covers closing line wont win ur money.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • olmec
                                                            SBR Hustler
                                                            • 11-30-12
                                                            • 50

                                                            #4614
                                                            Originally posted by Stifler
                                                            Reading some of the last posts im thinking most of u are professionals. Just reading some of the last posts feels like im down -50 units. Looks like most of u guys easily make 50+ units every nba/mlb season.

                                                            Im glad i can deal with the backtested numbers. I never expect to come out as strong as the backtested numbers, if im doing it its a monster season. U guys need to realize finishing a season with +100 or more is such a big achievement in sports betting. Those backtested numbers look that good because i simply choose the best records after backtesting all numbers. If i would have started next season i probably would have different teams on every system. I just feel good losing some extra series will still end in the + zone, thats the only thing i really like on those backtested numbers, cause i know i cant finish that strong every season. Hell, if someone is telling me a bad season will still end with like lets say +30 units, believe me im the first one signing this. I even would sign a constantly +50 units. This is still sports betting not tic tac toe!.
                                                            Actually, I compare the results and wondering where are we going (just comparing not judging you Stif) I have been betting always soccer game and my back tests about my system says that i am succesfull if i get %55 success of my bets. So, your results better than mine. And Stifler, your system really change my viewpoint of betting. (this is the first year that i chase)

                                                            I rehandled my soccer system according the some rules of this system. I start betting Basketball games with you and i think i will make my first MLB bets this year with your system

                                                            So thanks for this great job.

                                                            +30 units of course not bad, hope that we will finish this season with better account.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Mr. Green
                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                              • 02-01-11
                                                              • 251

                                                              #4615
                                                              [QUOTE=TensionX1;18134332]Hey, what does the bold red team mean? Your solid pick?[/QUOTE

                                                              The red indicates that game was a loss in the chase series
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Grinder12000
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 04-21-11
                                                                • 1809

                                                                #4616
                                                                Those backtested numbers look that good because i simply choose the best records after backtesting all numbers.
                                                                EXACTLY - that's what I said a few months ago and got my a-hole reamed for even saying it!!

                                                                I WISH I was up 30 units. The tricky thing is that many lines that you get we here in America have no chance at (unless we wake up at 3 in the morning). That one "D" loss that I had no chance to get a good line on is a 20u swing.

                                                                And also - no matter how we end up I hope people appreciate the work Stif has put into this - posting plays EVERY DAY is a pain in the arse!
                                                                Last edited by Grinder12000; 03-18-13, 03:38 PM.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Nino7
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 07-11-09
                                                                  • 798

                                                                  #4617
                                                                  Stifler I think your system is kicking asses. Though,since the live and backtested numbers seem to be in a different range,I'm wondering how to get them to be close so we could reliably test and find interesting filters and produce an optimal money management.Great success are in the details.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • NYC's Finest
                                                                    Restricted User
                                                                    • 11-27-12
                                                                    • 52

                                                                    #4618
                                                                    Really not feeling this D bet. Mavs playing their 4th game in 5 days, and this one is a back to back. I don't think 4 points is enough, but we'll see, GL everyone!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • dalogester
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 01-02-13
                                                                      • 1088

                                                                      #4619
                                                                      sigh now dallas is +4.5, i know this shouldnt make the difference just wish the line was bigger to begin with.. i was thinking it would be 5 or 5.5
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • samrock67
                                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                                        • 05-05-12
                                                                        • 647

                                                                        #4620
                                                                        Strong first half by the Mavs for all you doubters. Atlanta lookin pretty wiped out there, let's close this one out.
                                                                        Comment
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