nba chase 12/13

[olmec]

I have a question to Stifler or the other system chasers;

-- It is my first year that chasing the system, so I wonder that how is going the system if we compare the other years (considering middle of the March)

--Second question to Stifler; When do you think to start MBL chase? (That will be my first baseball bet, in my betting history)

[samrock67]

I have a question to Stifler or the other system chasers;

-- It is my first year that chasing the system, so I wonder that how is going the system if we compare the other years (considering middle of the March)

--Second question to Stifler; When do you think to start MBL chase? (That will be my first baseball bet, in my betting history)

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe this is the first "live" year of the system. It is underperfoming compared to the backtested results, but I know that Stifler has already mentioned that he has some tweaks for the system for next year.

The MLB chase will start up soon as the first game is slated for 4/1.

[dalogester]

clippers line is -12 right now... thoughts stif?

[samrock67]

clippers line is -12 right now... thoughts stif?

Stif will post when he thinks the line is good...as always

[dalogester]

Sure samrock, but I got Brooklyn at -4 as well.

[samrock67]

I wasn't saying the lines don't change in our favor sometimes after Stifler has already posted...but I am sure that Stifler is constantly checking the lines to look for movement. Besides, more often than not the little line movement that there is during the day won't have much of an impact.

[Stifler]

- Clippers line added.

17.03.2013

S1

(C Bet) Atl fade: Lakers +1 1,10u | Phoenix +9 2,31u | Brooklyn -4,5 4,85u
(A Bet) NYK fade: Clippers -13 1,10u

S2

(A Bet) Atl fade: Brooklyn -4,5 1,10u



________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

[dalogester]

I gotcha, stiflers better at reading line movement then me anyways, im a rookie. I think I got lucky on this one. At least the rest of you guys didn't lose.

[easysaid]

with the NYK fade do we continue with the B bet or scrap the whole thing?

[miczz14]

what does it mean when the lines is getting lower? example, -4.5 went to -4

[parlay100]

System for sure. I know I suck at most sports, my emotions get in the way. Ill place maybe 1/2u on emotion plays ( which seem to win) but I know my limitations. Find a system, play it till it breaks down and move on.

long run yea, but the key is knowing when to pull the plug and when to press.

MY only system is the NFL and its worked for 21 years but only about 40 plays a year.

I love that kind of backtest. Willing to share or top secret?

[John Deere]

Sick...
An other D bets.

[illisdre]

ya well .. i dug myself a deeper whole... thinking +4.5 was good at 4th quarter live.
..wtf.. are all these games plagued?? like consistently something goes wack.

[John Deere]

Mavs tomorrow !

[ABOSSSGAME]

hopefully this D can shoot though

[zonedog]

Mavs will be playing their 4th game in 5 days and that 4th game is on the road against a good team. Memphis was in the same situation against Utah (a team they beat by double digit prior twice) on Saturday where they ran out gas in the 4th quarter and lost. Just saying...

[Stifler]

17.03.2013

S1

(C Bet) Atl fade: Lakers +1 1,10u | Phoenix +9 2,31u | Brooklyn -4,5 4,85u
(A Bet) NYK fade: Clippers -13 1,10u

S2

(A Bet) Atl fade: Brooklyn -4,5 1,10u

records:
S1: W 69 | L 4 (- 4,80 units)
S2: W 36 | L 3 (-19,35 units)
S3: W 22 | L 0 (+22,00 units)
S4: W 47 | L 1 (+30,55 units)
additional:
-1,10 units Den fade
-3,41 units S4 Tor fade > closing line covers


pending:
- S1 Atl fade, D Bet on 18.03.2013
- S2 Bos, C Bet on 20.03.2013
- S2 Atl fade, B Bet on 24.03.2013
- S1 NYK fade, new A Bet on 18.03.2013

________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

[olmec]

records:

2006/07: 227-5 (+131,75 units)
2007/08: 217-2 (+180,10 units)
2008/09: 232-6 (+121,30 units)
2009/10: 240-4 (+166,20 units)
2010/11: 211-3 (+155,65 units)
2011/12: 181-3 (+125,65 units)

2012/13: 174-8 (+28,40 units) -till today- (not counting additional stuff)

For this year, we already have 8 loses. I think this is the worst year for the system. Hope that no more lose till the end of the regular season

[Stifler]

18.03.2013

S1

(D Bet) Atl fade: Lakers +1 1,10u | Phoenix +9 2,31u | Brooklyn -4,5 4,85u | Dallas - waiting on lm
(A Bet) NYK fade: Utah - no line up atm
(A Bet) Atl: Atlanta -3 1,10u

S2

(A Bet) Utah: Utah - no line up atm


________________________________________ ________________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

[Grinder12000]

(A Bet) NYK fade: Clippers -13 1,10u

(A Bet) NYK fade: Utah should be a (B) bet.

That is actually a loss if you are playing the System. Closing line was -13.5

Just say'in

[John Deere]

WTF Utah-10. Am I missing something ?

[Stifler]

- Dallas line added.

18.03.2013

S1

(D Bet) Atl fade: Lakers +1 1,10u | Phoenix +9 2,31u | Brooklyn -4,5 4,85u | Dallas +4 10,19u
(A Bet) NYK fade: Utah - no line up atm
(A Bet) Atl: Atlanta -3 1,10u

S2

(A Bet) Utah: Utah - no line up atm


________________________________________ ________________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

[dalogester]

You realize ny is tending down big time and probably without 2 best players vs a very good home Utah team that needs wins. -10 isn't so bad..

[Nino7]

records:

2006/07: 227-5 (+131,75 units)
2007/08: 217-2 (+180,10 units)
2008/09: 232-6 (+121,30 units)
2009/10: 240-4 (+166,20 units)
2010/11: 211-3 (+155,65 units)
2011/12: 181-3 (+125,65 units)

2012/13: 174-8 (+28,40 units) -till today- (not counting additional stuff)

For this year, we already have 8 loses. I think this is the worst year for the system. Hope that no more lose till the end of the regular season

I assume that the backest results are not reliable because after the selections criterions were set up,the selection of the eligible teams for the systems were established on the basis of the backtest results in the purpose of virtually improving them.
Stifler tryed to build some good systems here but i assume that setting up any selection on the basis of the backtests rather than backtesting the whole of the selection criterions is a mistake.
What you guys think?

[Stifler]

- Utah line added.

18.03.2013

S1

(D Bet) Atl fade: Lakers +1 1,10u | Phoenix +9 2,31u | Brooklyn -4,5 4,85u | Dallas +4 10,19u
(A Bet) NYK fade: Utah -10 1,10u
(A Bet) Atl: Atlanta -3 1,10u

S2

(A Bet) Utah: Utah -10 1,10u


________________________________________ ________________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

[TensionX1]

Hey, what does the bold red team mean? Your solid pick?

[thelimit0310]

It's just been a bad season, every system I've looked at is underperforming many are in the red. Makes me glad that we are less than a month out from wrapping things up, I need to wash this season off with some MLB.

We are actually at 9 losses for the season Stifler is not counting one that he won but lost on Covers

[Stifler]

Reading some of the last posts im thinking most of u are professionals. Just reading some of the last posts feels like im down -50 units. Looks like most of u guys easily make 50+ units every nba/mlb season.

Im glad i can deal with the backtested numbers. I never expect to come out as strong as the backtested numbers, if im doing it its a monster season. U guys need to realize finishing a season with +100 or more is such a big achievement in sports betting. Those backtested numbers look that good because i simply choose the best records after backtesting all numbers. If i would have started next season i probably would have different teams on every system. I just feel good losing some extra series will still end in the + zone, thats the only thing i really like on those backtested numbers, cause i know i cant finish that strong every season. Hell, if someone is telling me a bad season will still end with like lets say +30 units, believe me im the first one signing this. I even would sign a constantly +50 units. This is still sports betting not tic tac toe!

(A Bet) NYK fade: Utah should be a (B) bet.

That is actually a loss if you are playing the System. Closing line was -13.5

I aleady said im playing live lines, those closing lines on covers are just important to indicate plays. Those closing lines have nothing to do with any lines anyone is getting. As soon as u place the bet u have to live with the line you locked in. The covers closing line wont win ur money.

[olmec]

Reading some of the last posts im thinking most of u are professionals. Just reading some of the last posts feels like im down -50 units. Looks like most of u guys easily make 50+ units every nba/mlb season.

Im glad i can deal with the backtested numbers. I never expect to come out as strong as the backtested numbers, if im doing it its a monster season. U guys need to realize finishing a season with +100 or more is such a big achievement in sports betting. Those backtested numbers look that good because i simply choose the best records after backtesting all numbers. If i would have started next season i probably would have different teams on every system. I just feel good losing some extra series will still end in the + zone, thats the only thing i really like on those backtested numbers, cause i know i cant finish that strong every season. Hell, if someone is telling me a bad season will still end with like lets say +30 units, believe me im the first one signing this. I even would sign a constantly +50 units. This is still sports betting not tic tac toe!.

Actually, I compare the results and wondering where are we going (just comparing not judging you Stif) I have been betting always soccer game and my back tests about my system says that i am succesfull if i get %55 success of my bets. So, your results better than mine. And Stifler, your system really change my viewpoint of betting. (this is the first year that i chase)

I rehandled my soccer system according the some rules of this system. I start betting Basketball games with you and i think i will make my first MLB bets this year with your system

So thanks for this great job.

+30 units of course not bad, hope that we will finish this season with better account.

[Mr. Green]

[QUOTE=TensionX1;18134332]Hey, what does the bold red team mean? Your solid pick?[/QUOTE

The red indicates that game was a loss in the chase series

[Grinder12000]

Those backtested numbers look that good because i simply choose the best records after backtesting all numbers.

EXACTLY - that's what I said a few months ago and got my a-hole reamed for even saying it!!

I WISH I was up 30 units. The tricky thing is that many lines that you get we here in America have no chance at (unless we wake up at 3 in the morning). That one "D" loss that I had no chance to get a good line on is a 20u swing.

And also - no matter how we end up I hope people appreciate the work Stif has put into this - posting plays EVERY DAY is a pain in the arse!

[Nino7]

Stifler I think your system is kicking asses. Though,since the live and backtested numbers seem to be in a different range,I'm wondering how to get them to be close so we could reliably test and find interesting filters and produce an optimal money management.Great success are in the details.

[NYC's Finest]

Really not feeling this D bet. Mavs playing their 4th game in 5 days, and this one is a back to back. I don't think 4 points is enough, but we'll see, GL everyone!

[dalogester]

sigh now dallas is +4.5, i know this shouldnt make the difference just wish the line was bigger to begin with.. i was thinking it would be 5 or 5.5

[samrock67]

Strong first half by the Mavs for all you doubters. Atlanta lookin pretty wiped out there, let's close this one out.