this is why u need a chase system in nba. it's too unpredictable
Comment
zonedog
SBR Rookie
10-08-10
28
#4660
Stifler,
I really appreciate all the hard work you put into backtesting. I know you said that you would have a new system for basketball next year. Do you think it would make sense to at least weigh in a little bit on the skill of the players of the current roster when picking teams?
Example - Orlando is a drastically different team this year roster wise then what it was during the last 5 years since Howard left plus they have had injuries too. I know line moves accordingly but it seems like no matter what the line is they just don't have enough skill players this year to cover the spread most of the time.
Comment
Wallco99
SBR Hall of Famer
01-01-11
7261
#4661
Originally posted by zonedog
Stifler,
I really appreciate all the hard work you put into backtesting. I know you said that you would have a new system for basketball next year. Do you think it would make sense to at least weigh in a little bit on the skill of the players of the current roster when picking teams?
Example - Orlando is a drastically different team this year roster wise then what it was during the last 5 years since Howard left plus they have had injuries too. I know line moves accordingly but it seems like no matter what the line is they just don't have enough skill players this year to cover the spread most of the time.
It sounds like you are starting a new system! What will the name of your thread be?
Comment
Grinder12000
SBR MVP
04-21-11
1809
#4662
I know in the NFL I always have one team that kills me. Normally the amazingly offense teams that crush the spread. They are my Orlando.
Comment
dalogester
SBR MVP
01-02-13
1088
#4663
I'm more upset about the boston bet tonight then Orlando. They absolutely should have covered.
With that being said, we haven't lost until we lose the D bets fellas. Have faith
Aahh, had cleveland ML tonight, a hard one... Gonna keep fading miami, thav gonna lose soon
Comment
zonedog
SBR Rookie
10-08-10
28
#4665
Originally posted by Wallco99
It sounds like you are starting a new system! What will the name of your thread be?
It sounds like you are clueless as to what I was trying to get to. I was simply asking Stifler's opinion on teams that performed well one away or the other in the past 5 years and now has completely different make up may better be avoided some time until a pattern developed on how this new look team plays. He even admitted that he would tweak this system for the next year. So get a clue.
Comment
Grinder12000
SBR MVP
04-21-11
1809
#4666
There are some parts of The Chase that I back tested for 10 years that are awesome. S1 follows kicked butt the last 10 years.
For instance - Orlando is one of the best teams in S1 going 52-1 and are 4-0 this year but are horrible fading being 12-4, they are 5-0 in S1 fade this year.
(B Bet) NYK fade:Utah -10 1,10u | Orlando +10,5 2,31u (B Bet) Atl:Atlanta -3 1,10u | Atlanta -5,5 2,31u (A Bet) SA fade:Golden State +8,5 1,10u (A Bet) Bos:Boston -4,5 1,10 S2
(C Bet) Bos: Boston +11 1,10u| Boston -11 2,31u | Boston -4,5 4,85u (B Bet) Orl: Orlando +11 1,10u | Orlando +10,5 2,31u
records: S1: W 71 | L 4 (- 2,80 units)
S2: W 36 | L 3 (-19,35 units)
S3: W 22 | L 0 (+22,00 units)
S4: W 47 | L 1 (+30,55 units)
additional: -1,10 units Den fade
-3,41 units S4 Tor fade > closing line covers
pending:
- S2 Bos, D Bet on 22.03.2013
- S2 Atl fade, B Bet on 24.03.2013
- S1 NYK fade, C Bet on 22.03.2013
- S2 Utah, B Bet on 25.03.2013
- S2 Orl, C Bet on 27.03.2013
- S1 Bos, B Bet on 22.03.2013
- S1 SA fade, B Bet on 22.03.2013
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586
Comment
ABOSSSGAME
SBR Rookie
11-13-12
23
#4668
Big day tomorrow ..
Comment
John Deere
SBR Wise Guy
10-19-11
581
#4669
Originally posted by ABOSSSGAME
Pay day tomorrow ..
FYP
Comment
dalogester
SBR MVP
01-02-13
1088
#4670
No plays today Stif? Im sad we don't have enough money out there LOL
Comment
Teamprofit101
SBR Sharp
12-14-11
336
#4671
Originally posted by Grinder12000
There are some parts of The Chase that I back tested for 10 years that are awesome. S1 follows kicked butt the last 10 years.
For instance - Orlando is one of the best teams in S1 going 52-1 and are 4-0 this year but are horrible fading being 12-4, they are 5-0 in S1 fade this year.
Utah was 54-0 and are 3-0 follow and 3-0 fade
With teams changing players and coaches some years will be different on a team to team basis.........
do you have the record for S1-S4 for every team all together in the past years?
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586
Comment
Stifler
SBR MVP
11-11-09
3511
#4673
Originally posted by zonedog
Stifler,
I really appreciate all the hard work you put into backtesting. I know you said that you would have a new system for basketball next year. Do you think it would make sense to at least weigh in a little bit on the skill of the players of the current roster when picking teams?
Example - Orlando is a drastically different team this year roster wise then what it was during the last 5 years since Howard left plus they have had injuries too. I know line moves accordingly but it seems like no matter what the line is they just don't have enough skill players this year to cover the spread most of the time.
I definately will take a look closer in the next season. I mean its easy to talk about the impact after the regular season is done. Orlando was undefeated for S2 the previous 6 seasons. If any drastical team changings are going to happen next year i think its better to lay of that teams. Still hard to decide before the season, could have been the same with Brooklyn aswell.
There will probably new systems next year. I already made the backtesting, will take a look closer as soon as the nba season is done.
Im also willing to do my own nba database with 1H, 2H, 1Q, 2Q 3Q, 4Q spreads and maybe a bit more, but this is a hell of a work and will probably take alot time. This wont be finished for the next season, i dont even know if this can be done for the 2014/15 season. This will take atleast 1 year to add all those things together, cause i wanna have atleast 3 or 4 full seasons of data.
Im also looking for a soccer chase, cause soccer is the sport i am most addicted to. Plus there is still NHL in my mind. But even my day has 24 hours, i will do everything step by step.
There will also be a new pitcher chase system for mlb. I will post all the mlb stuff on the weekend, including all the team-changes.
Comment
dalogester
SBR MVP
01-02-13
1088
#4674
Awesome stuff stifler, I think we need to all keep in mind that its also plausible to have seasons like this one that just simply under perform. We can't expect every single season in every single sport to double up our bankroll. As far as im concerned, if we still show a profit from this season then I am happy. Its a marathon, not a sprint. Can't wait to try out baseball season!
Comment
olmec
SBR Hustler
11-30-12
50
#4675
Originally posted by Stifler
Im also looking for a soccer chase, cause soccer is the sport i am most addicted to.
Have you ever try any soccer chase and share on sbr or somewhere else? Also i have a soccer chase and i really wonder yours..
Comment
Stifler
SBR MVP
11-11-09
3511
#4676
Originally posted by olmec
Have you ever try any soccer chase and share on sbr or somewhere else? Also i have a soccer chase and i really wonder yours..
I Never did any Soccer chasing. Never Even did it with Single betting seriously.
Is your system documented anywhere?
Comment
olmec
SBR Hustler
11-30-12
50
#4677
Originally posted by Stifler
I Never did any Soccer chasing. Never Even did it with Single betting seriously.
Is your system documented anywhere?
No. I havent documented it. It's martingale based system like yours. If you wish i can explain you by pm.
Comment
miczz14
SBR High Roller
01-22-13
146
#4678
incoming d bet and c bet! heres to tomorrow! let's win these
Comment
Stifler
SBR MVP
11-11-09
3511
#4679
Originally posted by Stifler
21.03.2013
S4
(A Bet) Chic fade: Portland +6 1,10u
records: S1: W 71 | L 4 (- 2,80 units)
S2: W 36 | L 3 (-19,35 units)
S3: W 22 | L 0 (+22,00 units)
S4: W 48 | L 1 (+31,55 units)
additional: -1,10 units Den fade
-3,41 units S4 Tor fade > closing line covers
pending:
- S2 Bos, D Bet on 22.03.2013
- S2 Atl fade, B Bet on 24.03.2013
- S1 NYK fade, C Bet on 22.03.2013
- S2 Utah, B Bet on 25.03.2013
- S2 Orl, C Bet on 27.03.2013
- S1 Bos, B Bet on 22.03.2013
- S1 SA fade, B Bet on 22.03.2013
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586
Comment
Stifler
SBR MVP
11-11-09
3511
#4680
22.03.2013
S1
(C Bet) NYK fade:Utah -10 1,10u | Orlando +10,5 2,31u | Toronto - waiting on line movement
(B Bet) SA fade:Golden State +8,5 1,10u | Utah - no line up atm
(B Bet) Bos:Boston -4,5 1,10 | Boston - waiting on line movement (A Bet) NYK: Knicks -1 1,10u
S2
(D Bet) Bos: Boston +11 1,10u| Boston -11 2,31u | Boston -4,5 4,85u | Boston - waiting on lm (A Bet) Bos fade: Dallas - waiting on line movement
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586
Comment
dogs1972
SBR Wise Guy
11-22-09
509
#4681
Yeeeeeeehaaaaaaw!
Comment
Stifler
SBR MVP
11-11-09
3511
#4682
- NO & Utah line added.
22.03.2013
S1
(C Bet) NYK fade:Utah -10 1,10u | Orlando +10,5 2,31u | Toronto - waiting on line movement
(B Bet) SA fade:Golden State +8,5 1,10u | Utah +10,5 2,31u
(B Bet) Bos:Boston -4,5 1,10 | Boston - waiting on line movement
(A Bet) NYK: Knicks -1 1,10u
S2
(D Bet) Bos: Boston +11 1,10u| Boston -11 2,31u | Boston -4,5 4,85u | Boston - waiting on lm (A Bet) Bos fade: Dallas - waiting on line movement
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586
Comment
dogs1972
SBR Wise Guy
11-22-09
509
#4683
quiet around here
Comment
Stifler
SBR MVP
11-11-09
3511
#4684
- Dallas line added.
22.03.2013
S1
(C Bet) NYK fade:Utah -10 1,10u | Orlando +10,5 2,31u | Toronto - waiting on line movement
(B Bet) SA fade:Golden State +8,5 1,10u | Utah +10,5 2,31u
(B Bet) Bos:Boston -4,5 1,10 | Boston - waiting on line movement
(A Bet) NYK: Knicks -1 1,10u
S2
(D Bet) Bos: Boston +11 1,10u| Boston -11 2,31u | Boston -4,5 4,85u | Boston - waiting on lm (A Bet) Bos fade: Dallas -4,5 1,10u