nba chase 12/13

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  • John Deere
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 10-19-11
    • 581

    #4656
    GSW cant hold it
    Comment
    • zonedog
      SBR Rookie
      • 10-08-10
      • 28

      #4657
      Originally posted by illisdre
      wtf does that mean?

      I think he meant baseball
      Comment
      • John Deere
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 10-19-11
        • 581

        #4658
        Red night.
        Beat : Gf too.
        Comment
        • miczz14
          SBR High Roller
          • 01-22-13
          • 146

          #4659
          this is why u need a chase system in nba. it's too unpredictable
          Comment
          • zonedog
            SBR Rookie
            • 10-08-10
            • 28

            #4660
            Stifler,

            I really appreciate all the hard work you put into backtesting. I know you said that you would have a new system for basketball next year. Do you think it would make sense to at least weigh in a little bit on the skill of the players of the current roster when picking teams?

            Example - Orlando is a drastically different team this year roster wise then what it was during the last 5 years since Howard left plus they have had injuries too. I know line moves accordingly but it seems like no matter what the line is they just don't have enough skill players this year to cover the spread most of the time.
            Comment
            • Wallco99
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 01-01-11
              • 7261

              #4661
              Originally posted by zonedog
              Stifler,

              I really appreciate all the hard work you put into backtesting. I know you said that you would have a new system for basketball next year. Do you think it would make sense to at least weigh in a little bit on the skill of the players of the current roster when picking teams?

              Example - Orlando is a drastically different team this year roster wise then what it was during the last 5 years since Howard left plus they have had injuries too. I know line moves accordingly but it seems like no matter what the line is they just don't have enough skill players this year to cover the spread most of the time.
              It sounds like you are starting a new system! What will the name of your thread be?
              Comment
              • Grinder12000
                SBR MVP
                • 04-21-11
                • 1809

                #4662
                I know in the NFL I always have one team that kills me. Normally the amazingly offense teams that crush the spread. They are my Orlando.
                Comment
                • dalogester
                  SBR MVP
                  • 01-02-13
                  • 1088

                  #4663
                  I'm more upset about the boston bet tonight then Orlando. They absolutely should have covered.
                  With that being said, we haven't lost until we lose the D bets fellas. Have faith
                  Last edited by dalogester; 03-20-13, 11:19 PM.
                  Comment
                  • knugen
                    SBR MVP
                    • 12-09-09
                    • 2612

                    #4664
                    Aahh, had cleveland ML tonight, a hard one... Gonna keep fading miami, thav gonna lose soon
                    Comment
                    • zonedog
                      SBR Rookie
                      • 10-08-10
                      • 28

                      #4665
                      Originally posted by Wallco99
                      It sounds like you are starting a new system! What will the name of your thread be?
                      It sounds like you are clueless as to what I was trying to get to. I was simply asking Stifler's opinion on teams that performed well one away or the other in the past 5 years and now has completely different make up may better be avoided some time until a pattern developed on how this new look team plays. He even admitted that he would tweak this system for the next year. So get a clue.
                      Comment
                      • Grinder12000
                        SBR MVP
                        • 04-21-11
                        • 1809

                        #4666
                        There are some parts of The Chase that I back tested for 10 years that are awesome. S1 follows kicked butt the last 10 years.

                        For instance - Orlando is one of the best teams in S1 going 52-1 and are 4-0 this year but are horrible fading being 12-4, they are 5-0 in S1 fade this year.

                        Utah was 54-0 and are 3-0 follow and 3-0 fade
                        Last edited by Grinder12000; 03-21-13, 08:15 AM.
                        Comment
                        • Stifler
                          SBR MVP
                          • 11-11-09
                          • 3511

                          #4667
                          Originally posted by Stifler
                          20.03.2013

                          S1

                          (B Bet) NYK fade: Utah -10 1,10u | Orlando +10,5 2,31u
                          (B Bet) Atl: Atlanta -3 1,10u | Atlanta -5,5 2,31u
                          (A Bet) SA fade: Golden State +8,5 1,10u
                          (A Bet) Bos: Boston -4,5 1,10

                          S2

                          (C Bet) Bos: Boston +11 1,10u | Boston -11 2,31u | Boston -4,5 4,85u
                          (B Bet) Orl: Orlando +11 1,10u | Orlando +10,5 2,31u
                          records:
                          S1: W 71 | L 4 (- 2,80 units)
                          S2: W 36 | L 3 (-19,35 units)
                          S3: W 22 | L 0 (+22,00 units)
                          S4: W 47 | L 1 (+30,55 units)
                          additional:
                          -1,10 units Den fade
                          -3,41 units S4 Tor fade > closing line covers


                          pending:
                          - S2 Bos, D Bet on 22.03.2013
                          - S2 Atl fade, B Bet on 24.03.2013
                          - S1 NYK fade, C Bet on 22.03.2013
                          - S2 Utah, B Bet on 25.03.2013
                          - S2 Orl, C Bet on 27.03.2013
                          - S1 Bos, B Bet on 22.03.2013
                          - S1 SA fade, B Bet on 22.03.2013

                          ________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

                          all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586
                          Comment
                          • ABOSSSGAME
                            SBR Rookie
                            • 11-13-12
                            • 23

                            #4668
                            Big day tomorrow ..
                            Comment
                            • John Deere
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 10-19-11
                              • 581

                              #4669
                              Originally posted by ABOSSSGAME
                              Pay day tomorrow ..
                              FYP
                              Comment
                              • dalogester
                                SBR MVP
                                • 01-02-13
                                • 1088

                                #4670
                                No plays today Stif? Im sad we don't have enough money out there LOL
                                Comment
                                • Teamprofit101
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 12-14-11
                                  • 336

                                  #4671
                                  Originally posted by Grinder12000
                                  There are some parts of The Chase that I back tested for 10 years that are awesome. S1 follows kicked butt the last 10 years.

                                  For instance - Orlando is one of the best teams in S1 going 52-1 and are 4-0 this year but are horrible fading being 12-4, they are 5-0 in S1 fade this year.

                                  Utah was 54-0 and are 3-0 follow and 3-0 fade
                                  With teams changing players and coaches some years will be different on a team to team basis.........

                                  do you have the record for S1-S4 for every team all together in the past years?
                                  Comment
                                  • Stifler
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 11-11-09
                                    • 3511

                                    #4672
                                    21.03.2013

                                    S4

                                    (A Bet) Chic fade: Portland +6 1,10u


                                    ________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

                                    all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586
                                    Comment
                                    • Stifler
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 11-11-09
                                      • 3511

                                      #4673
                                      Originally posted by zonedog
                                      Stifler,

                                      I really appreciate all the hard work you put into backtesting. I know you said that you would have a new system for basketball next year. Do you think it would make sense to at least weigh in a little bit on the skill of the players of the current roster when picking teams?

                                      Example - Orlando is a drastically different team this year roster wise then what it was during the last 5 years since Howard left plus they have had injuries too. I know line moves accordingly but it seems like no matter what the line is they just don't have enough skill players this year to cover the spread most of the time.
                                      I definately will take a look closer in the next season. I mean its easy to talk about the impact after the regular season is done. Orlando was undefeated for S2 the previous 6 seasons. If any drastical team changings are going to happen next year i think its better to lay of that teams. Still hard to decide before the season, could have been the same with Brooklyn aswell.

                                      There will probably new systems next year. I already made the backtesting, will take a look closer as soon as the nba season is done.
                                      Im also willing to do my own nba database with 1H, 2H, 1Q, 2Q 3Q, 4Q spreads and maybe a bit more, but this is a hell of a work and will probably take alot time. This wont be finished for the next season, i dont even know if this can be done for the 2014/15 season. This will take atleast 1 year to add all those things together, cause i wanna have atleast 3 or 4 full seasons of data.

                                      Im also looking for a soccer chase, cause soccer is the sport i am most addicted to. Plus there is still NHL in my mind. But even my day has 24 hours, i will do everything step by step.

                                      There will also be a new pitcher chase system for mlb. I will post all the mlb stuff on the weekend, including all the team-changes.
                                      Comment
                                      • dalogester
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 01-02-13
                                        • 1088

                                        #4674
                                        Awesome stuff stifler, I think we need to all keep in mind that its also plausible to have seasons like this one that just simply under perform. We can't expect every single season in every single sport to double up our bankroll. As far as im concerned, if we still show a profit from this season then I am happy. Its a marathon, not a sprint. Can't wait to try out baseball season!
                                        Comment
                                        • olmec
                                          SBR Hustler
                                          • 11-30-12
                                          • 50

                                          #4675
                                          Originally posted by Stifler
                                          Im also looking for a soccer chase, cause soccer is the sport i am most addicted to.
                                          Have you ever try any soccer chase and share on sbr or somewhere else? Also i have a soccer chase and i really wonder yours..
                                          Comment
                                          • Stifler
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 11-11-09
                                            • 3511

                                            #4676
                                            Originally posted by olmec
                                            Have you ever try any soccer chase and share on sbr or somewhere else? Also i have a soccer chase and i really wonder yours..
                                            I Never did any Soccer chasing. Never Even did it with Single betting seriously.
                                            Is your system documented anywhere?
                                            Comment
                                            • olmec
                                              SBR Hustler
                                              • 11-30-12
                                              • 50

                                              #4677
                                              Originally posted by Stifler
                                              I Never did any Soccer chasing. Never Even did it with Single betting seriously.
                                              Is your system documented anywhere?
                                              No. I havent documented it. It's martingale based system like yours. If you wish i can explain you by pm.
                                              Comment
                                              • miczz14
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 01-22-13
                                                • 146

                                                #4678
                                                incoming d bet and c bet! heres to tomorrow! let's win these
                                                Comment
                                                • Stifler
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 11-11-09
                                                  • 3511

                                                  #4679
                                                  Originally posted by Stifler
                                                  21.03.2013

                                                  S4

                                                  (A Bet) Chic fade: Portland +6 1,10u

                                                  records:
                                                  S1: W 71 | L 4 (- 2,80 units)
                                                  S2: W 36 | L 3 (-19,35 units)
                                                  S3: W 22 | L 0 (+22,00 units)
                                                  S4: W 48 | L 1 (+31,55 units)
                                                  additional:
                                                  -1,10 units Den fade
                                                  -3,41 units S4 Tor fade > closing line covers


                                                  pending:
                                                  - S2 Bos, D Bet on 22.03.2013
                                                  - S2 Atl fade, B Bet on 24.03.2013
                                                  - S1 NYK fade, C Bet on 22.03.2013
                                                  - S2 Utah, B Bet on 25.03.2013
                                                  - S2 Orl, C Bet on 27.03.2013
                                                  - S1 Bos, B Bet on 22.03.2013
                                                  - S1 SA fade, B Bet on 22.03.2013

                                                  ________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

                                                  all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Stifler
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 11-11-09
                                                    • 3511

                                                    #4680
                                                    22.03.2013

                                                    S1

                                                    (C Bet) NYK fade: Utah -10 1,10u | Orlando +10,5 2,31u | Toronto - waiting on line movement
                                                    (B Bet) SA fade: Golden State +8,5 1,10u | Utah - no line up atm
                                                    (B Bet) Bos: Boston -4,5 1,10 | Boston - waiting on line movement
                                                    (A Bet) NYK: Knicks -1 1,10u


                                                    S2

                                                    (D Bet) Bos: Boston +11 1,10u | Boston -11 2,31u | Boston -4,5 4,85u | Boston - waiting on lm
                                                    (A Bet) Bos fade: Dallas - waiting on line movement

                                                    S4

                                                    (A Bet) Mem fade: New Orleans - waiting on lm



                                                    ________________________________________ ________________________________________

                                                    all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586
                                                    Comment
                                                    • dogs1972
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 11-22-09
                                                      • 509

                                                      #4681
                                                      Yeeeeeeehaaaaaaw!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Stifler
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 11-11-09
                                                        • 3511

                                                        #4682
                                                        - NO & Utah line added.

                                                        22.03.2013


                                                        S1

                                                        (C Bet) NYK fade: Utah -10 1,10u | Orlando +10,5 2,31u | Toronto - waiting on line movement
                                                        (B Bet) SA fade: Golden State +8,5 1,10u | Utah +10,5 2,31u
                                                        (B Bet) Bos: Boston -4,5 1,10 | Boston - waiting on line movement
                                                        (A Bet) NYK: Knicks -1 1,10u

                                                        S2

                                                        (D Bet) Bos: Boston +11 1,10u | Boston -11 2,31u | Boston -4,5 4,85u | Boston - waiting on lm
                                                        (A Bet) Bos fade: Dallas - waiting on line movement

                                                        S4

                                                        (A Bet) Mem fade: New Orleans +6,5 1,10u



                                                        ________________________________________ ________________________________________

                                                        all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586
                                                        Comment
                                                        • dogs1972
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 11-22-09
                                                          • 509

                                                          #4683
                                                          quiet around here
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Stifler
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 11-11-09
                                                            • 3511

                                                            #4684
                                                            - Dallas line added.

                                                            22.03.2013


                                                            S1

                                                            (C Bet) NYK fade: Utah -10 1,10u | Orlando +10,5 2,31u | Toronto - waiting on line movement
                                                            (B Bet) SA fade: Golden State +8,5 1,10u | Utah +10,5 2,31u
                                                            (B Bet) Bos: Boston -4,5 1,10 | Boston - waiting on line movement
                                                            (A Bet) NYK: Knicks -1 1,10u

                                                            S2

                                                            (D Bet) Bos: Boston +11 1,10u | Boston -11 2,31u | Boston -4,5 4,85u | Boston - waiting on lm
                                                            (A Bet) Bos fade: Dallas -4,5 1,10u

                                                            S4

                                                            (A Bet) Mem fade: New Orleans +6,5 1,10u



                                                            ________________________________________ ________________________________________

                                                            all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586
                                                            Comment
                                                            • illisdre
                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                              • 06-22-12
                                                              • 360

                                                              #4685
                                                              Originally posted by dogs1972
                                                              quiet around here
                                                              Very.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • dalogester
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 01-02-13
                                                                • 1088

                                                                #4686
                                                                oh sorry just busy losing all my winnings on stupid college basketball. I won't ever bet on that shitty sport again.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • illisdre
                                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                                  • 06-22-12
                                                                  • 360

                                                                  #4687
                                                                  I guess I'm waiting for someone to say this is a lock and they put there house on it.
                                                                  That'd make me feel better!

                                                                  Awell. Pulling the trigger on this mawf.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Stifler
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 11-11-09
                                                                    • 3511

                                                                    #4688
                                                                    - Toronto line added.

                                                                    22.03.2013


                                                                    S1

                                                                    (C Bet) NYK fade: Utah -10 1,10u | Orlando +10,5 2,31u | Toronto +1 4,85u
                                                                    (B Bet) SA fade: Golden State +8,5 1,10u | Utah +10,5 2,31u
                                                                    (B Bet) Bos: Boston -4,5 1,10 | Boston - waiting on line movement
                                                                    (A Bet) NYK: Knicks -1 1,10u

                                                                    S2

                                                                    (D Bet) Bos: Boston +11 1,10u | Boston -11 2,31u | Boston -4,5 4,85u | Boston - waiting on lm
                                                                    (A Bet) Bos fade: Dallas -4,5 1,10u

                                                                    S4

                                                                    (A Bet) Mem fade: New Orleans +6,5 1,10u



                                                                    ________________________________________ ________________________________________

                                                                    all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Stifler
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 11-11-09
                                                                      • 3511

                                                                      #4689
                                                                      - Boston line added.

                                                                      22.03.2013


                                                                      S1

                                                                      (C Bet) NYK fade: Utah -10 1,10u | Orlando +10,5 2,31u | Toronto +1 4,85u
                                                                      (B Bet) SA fade: Golden State +8,5 1,10u | Utah +10,5 2,31u
                                                                      (B Bet) Bos: Boston -4,5 1,10 | Boston +4,5 2,31u
                                                                      (A Bet) NYK: Knicks -1 1,10u

                                                                      S2

                                                                      (D Bet) Bos: Boston +11 1,10u | Boston -11 2,31u | Boston -4,5 4,85u | Boston +4,5 10,19u
                                                                      (A Bet) Bos fade: Dallas -4,5 1,10u

                                                                      S4

                                                                      (A Bet) Mem fade: New Orleans +6,5 1,10u



                                                                      ________________________________________ ________________________________________

                                                                      all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • John Deere
                                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                                        • 10-19-11
                                                                        • 581

                                                                        #4690
                                                                        BOL !
                                                                        Comment
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