nba chase 12/13

**Stifler** · 03-02-13, 06:53 AM

Originally posted by Stifler

01.03.2013

S1

(D Bet) Utah: Utah +9 1,10u | Utah -6,5 2,31u| Utah -4 4,85u | Utah -9 10,19u
(B Bet) Det fade: Washington -7 1,10u | New Orleans -3,5 2,31u
(A Bet) Utah fade: Charlotte +9 1,10u
(A Bet) NYK fade: Washington +3 1,10u

S2

(B Bet) Bos: Boston -4 1,10u
(A Bet) Cle: Cleveland +7,5 1,10u

S3

(D Bet) Atl fade: Mil -4,5 1,10u | Detroit +3 2,31u| Utah -4 4,85u | Phoenix +4 10,19u

S4

(B Bet) Sac fade: Orlando -1 1,10u | Spurs -14,5 2,31u
(A Bet) Mia fade: Memphis +8 1,10u

records:
S1: W 58 | L 3 (+ 2,65 units)
S2: W 32 | L 2 (- 4,90 units)
S3: W 20 | L 0 (+20,00 units)
S4: W 44 | L 1 (+27,55 units)
additional:
-1,10 units Den fade
-3,41 units S4 Tor fade > closing line covers

pending:
- S2 Orl fade, C Bet on 04.03.2013
- S1 Utah fade, B Bet on 04.03.2013
- S1 NYK fade, B Bet on 03.03.2013
- S2 Cle, B Bet on 04.03.2013

________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

**Stifler** · 03-02-13, 07:08 AM

02.03.2013

S1

(A Bet) Tor fade: Milwaukee -5 1,10u

S3

(A Bet) Tor fade: Milwaukee -5 1,10u

________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

**rustie** · 03-02-13, 07:31 AM

Originally posted by Wallco99

I am just starting it as a four game chase now, no reason not to. In my opinion, this makes it a 5 game chase for the price of 4 since the A bet already lost and we lost no money. I think our odds improve greatly this way.

Actually just started playing this way, except I wait till the C bet then jump in on the chase as if it were a A bet and start from there ,figure
this gives me a hypothetical 6 game chase and improves my odds of hitting .
I may miss out on a few A+B bets hitting but I feel its worth it.
Anyone else playing this way?

**wade1** · 03-02-13, 08:06 AM

why change something that's working

**Stifler** · 03-02-13, 08:43 AM

Originally posted by rustie

Actually just started playing this way, except I wait till the C bet then jump in on the chase as if it were a A bet and start from there ,figure
this gives me a hypothetical 6 game chase and improves my odds of hitting .
I may miss out on a few A+B bets hitting but I feel its worth it.
Anyone else playing this way?

It still stays a 4 game chase without any backtested background. I dont like it at all, but that doesnt mean this couldnt work. Most of u probably just see the previous hitting % the seasons before on C/D bets and make their decisions based on that stats. Dunno if thats the way to go, but i wont talk u out of it.

**rustie** · 03-02-13, 08:54 AM

Originally posted by Stifler

It still stays a 4 game chase without any backtested background. I dont like it at all, but that doesnt mean this couldnt work. Most of u probably just see the previous hitting % the seasons before on C/D bets and make their decisions based on that stats. Dunno if thats the way to go, but i wont talk u out of it.

Thanks for the reply Stiffler, not really trying to change your system
just trying to minimize the risk. And your right I have not backtested,
I just feel their is a better chance of any streak breaking the longer it progresses (gamblers fallacy perhaps , but ?).
Anyway ,thanks for the system and your consistent posting of the plays.

**Grinder12000** · 03-02-13, 09:02 AM

Congrats - FINALLY we have eclipsed the support level - it's all good now!! That barrier has been a real wall to get past!

**Grinder12000** · 03-02-13, 09:38 AM

Actually just started playing this way, except I wait till the C bet then jump in on the chase as if it were a A bet and start from there ,figure this gives me a hypothetical 6 game chase and improves my odds of hitting .
I may miss out on a few A+B bets hitting but I feel its worth it.
Anyone else playing this way?

if you work out the numbers this is not a money maker as you miss out on to many A and B games. What happens is that while you have a better quality of games you lose money because the quantity goes down.

Good idea as I looked into it but long run you win less.

**Jellybeans** · 03-02-13, 09:50 AM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

if you work out the numbers this is not a money maker as you miss out on to many A and B games. What happens is that while you have a better quality of games you lose money because the quantity goes down.

Good idea as I looked into it but long run you win less.

Hehe, hmmmm....sounds like a system chase for systems chases

**Grinder12000** · 03-02-13, 11:42 AM

If you just cut out the "A" games because they only hit 52% (421-379) at first it seems logical to skip them. HOWEVER - those 379 losses on "A" turn into 359 wins sooner or later and THEN you miss out completely on the 421 wins you never played.

Instead of 20 "10.19u" losses (203.8u) you have 20 "4.84u" (96.8u) losses so you gain 107 units, BUT you still miss out on 421 missed wins which is the kicker.

So by skipping "A" you lose 107 units LESS but also win 421 units less.

**wade1** · 03-03-13, 09:02 AM

I agree with Grinder, too many people trying to out think the system

**comala57** · 03-03-13, 09:19 AM

Last night being proof. Two A bet wins, granted it was 1 game, but still a double A bet win.

**Ji-a** · 03-03-13, 09:24 AM

Grinder explained it well and I'll add something very simple to it.

If you played Stifler's chase as it is, you won 12 units this week (Mon-Sat). If you had played that "starting from c bet" thingy you would've won 2.

**rustie** · 03-03-13, 10:32 AM

Originally posted by Ji-a

Grinder explained it well and I'll add something very simple to it.

If you played Stifler's chase as it is, you won 12 units this week (Mon-Sat). If you had played that "starting from c bet" thingy you would've won 2.

Okay guys I see the error of my ways, wasn't trying to ruffle any feathers.

Just one more thing though because I was playing that "starting from c bet " thingy there are a lot
less plays so I was able to up my unit amount to compensate for missing some A & B bets.

Didn't mean to come across as one of those who come into threads and try to change the system,but looking at it now
I can see thats how it could be interpreted.

Anyhow good luck to us all, however we do this crazy gambling thingy

**JJPLAT22** · 03-03-13, 10:50 AM

Grinder- Apologies in advance if this has already been mentioned but does the y axis represents units? If so, then why are we only at ~positive 15 units? Is this just for one particular system?

**Stifler** · 03-03-13, 11:11 AM

Originally posted by Stifler

02.03.2013

S1

(A Bet) Tor fade: Milwaukee -5 1,10u

S3

(A Bet) Tor fade: Milwaukee -5 1,10u

records:
S1: W 59 | L 3 (+ 3,65 units)
S2: W 32 | L 2 (- 4,90 units)
S3: W 21 | L 0 (+21,00 units)
S4: W 44 | L 1 (+27,55 units)
additional:
-1,10 units Den fade
-3,41 units S4 Tor fade > closing line covers

pending:
- S2 Orl fade, C Bet on 04.03.2013
- S1 Utah fade, B Bet on 04.03.2013
- S1 NYK fade, B Bet on 03.03.2013
- S2 Cle, B Bet on 04.03.2013

________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

**Stifler** · 03-03-13, 11:39 AM

03.03.2013

S1

(B Bet) NYK fade: Washington +3 1,10u | Miami -4 2,31u

________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

**Alwarrete** · 03-03-13, 03:36 PM

**Jellybeans** · 03-03-13, 03:41 PM

Nice comeback Miami

**dalogester** · 03-03-13, 03:45 PM

huge comeback and win. Love when series ends before C bet.

**Stifler** · 03-04-13, 05:05 AM

Originally posted by Stifler

03.03.2013

S1

(B Bet) NYK fade: Washington +3 1,10u | Miami -4 2,31u

records:
S1: W 60 | L 3 (+ 4,65 units)
S2: W 32 | L 2 (- 4,90 units)
S3: W 21 | L 0 (+21,00 units)
S4: W 44 | L 1 (+27,55 units)
additional:
-1,10 units Den fade
-3,41 units S4 Tor fade > closing line covers

pending:
- S2 Orl fade, C Bet on 04.03.2013
- S1 Utah fade, B Bet on 04.03.2013
- S2 Cle, B Bet on 04.03.2013

________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

**dalogester** · 03-04-13, 11:56 AM

i know this might have been asked but should we go ahead and place our bets for these 3 games pending if we see good lines? Or should we wait for the "official" line being used in this system?

For instance, about an hour or so go on my site New Orleans was -8.5 Now they are -9.5 and -9 on different sites. And Milwaukee was -4.5 now they are -5. Cleveland was +2.5 now they are +3. Hate guessing, guess ill wait for the master Stifler

**Stifler** · 03-04-13, 12:01 PM

04.03.2013

S1

(B Bet) Utah fade: Charlotte +9 1,10u | Milwaukee -4,5 2,31u
(A Bet) Mil: Milwaukee -4,5 1,10u

S2

(C Bet) Orl fade: Memphis -13,5 1,10u | 76ers -9,5 2,31u| New Orleans -9 4,85u
(B Bet) Cle: Cleveland +7,5 1,10u | Cleveland - waiting on line movement

S3

(A Bet) GS: Golden State -6,5 1,10u

S4

(A Bet) Tor fade: Golden State -6,5 1,10u

________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

**dalogester** · 03-04-13, 12:23 PM

he corrected the date, no biggie everything else looks the same.

**olmec** · 03-04-13, 12:24 PM

eveything is ok date too

hope that the picks will be too

**Alwarrete** · 03-04-13, 12:30 PM

Mmmmmmmm. Hard picks tonight.

**Stifler** · 03-04-13, 03:04 PM

- Cleveland line added.

04.03.2013

S1

(B Bet) Utah fade: Charlotte +9 1,10u | Milwaukee -4,5 2,31u
(A Bet) Mil: Milwaukee -4,5 1,10u

S2

(C Bet) Orl fade: Memphis -13,5 1,10u | 76ers -9,5 2,31u| New Orleans -9 4,85u
(B Bet) Cle: Cleveland +7,5 1,10u | Cleveland +3 2,31u

S3

(A Bet) GS: Golden State -6,5 1,10u

S4

(A Bet) Tor fade: Golden State -6,5 1,10u

________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

**knugen** · 03-04-13, 03:14 PM

weird lines tonight, isnt it?

Cavaliers only +3 and Hornets -(!!) 9?

**dalogester** · 03-04-13, 04:12 PM

that just means its going to cover. no worries.

**samrock67** · 03-04-13, 04:36 PM

Knicks and Magic are both going to be tired since theyre both playing b2b. NO and Clev didn't play yesterday

**MARCUS** · 03-04-13, 04:39 PM

On Monday the NBA Power System Play is on the New Orleans Hornets. Game 704 at 8:05 eastern. Orlando gets blown out on a regular basis these days and fresh off another loss they travel to New Orleans to take on a Hornets teams that is 7-0 ats in the series and has won the last 5 from Orlando. The Magic also fit a big system that plays against road teams that scored 90 or less as a home dog of 5 or more, vs an opponent that scored 90 or more as a home favorite and shot 45% or less. These road teams lose by an average 19 points and have failed to cover every time the last 18+ years if not getting 15 or more. The Magic are 7-21 ats vs losing teams and 1-8 of late in this role.The Magic are 1-4 ats on the road with no rest off a home game and all teams going into New Orleans with no rest off a home game are 1-6 ats. Look for the Hornets to get the win and cover.

**kuru** · 03-04-13, 05:49 PM

Is anthony davis playng today ?

**miczz14** · 03-04-13, 07:09 PM

^afaik hes injured but -9 is still too much. oh well, maybe it's a trap for orl takers

**samrock67** · 03-04-13, 09:31 PM

that was weird...i was watching the espn gamecast and it went final at 100-97(Knicks game) now its 102-97. wtf

**illisdre** · 03-04-13, 09:31 PM

wtf happened with cleveland.. free throw at 0 seconds.?