nba chase 12/13

**scrotum_scr@cher** · 02-26-13, 01:01 PM

Originally posted by noveggies

Sorry if this is too far OT stif, but there are some helpful people in here that I thought might be able to help me understand something... I've been watching the O/U for the kings game waiting for the U to get more reasonable than 210.5, and it finally moved about 15 minutes ago to 211. That lasted for about 5 minutes and now it's at 210. What would cause that? Was it just that the U got crashed at 211, so it overcompensated to 210?

EDIT: Just in general, I've seen this kind of thing happen quite a few times and I'm curious as to what causes it.

you've just answer your question they've
got crushed

**Britton333** · 02-26-13, 01:24 PM

Originally posted by noveggies

Sorry if this is too far OT stif, but there are some helpful people in here that I thought might be able to help me understand something... I've been watching the O/U for the kings game waiting for the U to get more reasonable than 210.5, and it finally moved about 15 minutes ago to 211. That lasted for about 5 minutes and now it's at 210. What would cause that? Was it just that the U got crashed at 211, so it overcompensated to 210?

EDIT: Just in general, I've seen this kind of thing happen quite a few times and I'm curious as to what causes it.

Between 11-11:30 is when most lines are moving around. Most books post their official or reduced lines at 11 o'clock. There are overnight lines available, but generally at regular juice and the limits are much smaller and therefore make less impace on the lines. I think the books use these lines to feel out where they anticipate action.

**dalogester** · 02-26-13, 03:14 PM

I tried to bet ahead of time thinking the 76ers line would go to -10.5.. and it totally went down to -9.5. I suck at predicting line movement I guess.. What if they win by 10 and i push and you guys all win? Go on to next one?

**Jellybeans** · 02-26-13, 03:42 PM

ATL and UTAH, 2 C bets heads up

I am sure this question may have come up....
tomorrow 27-Feb-2013, Atl and Utah both are on their C bets, but they will be playing each other...so you gonna have a series win and a D bet after...
Question...I assume just bet on both and lose the juice, or there is a different way to do it, like cancel out the bets and just do the D bet?

**Wallco99** · 02-26-13, 06:23 PM

Originally posted by Jellybeans

I am sure this question may have come up....
tomorrow 27-Feb-2013, Atl and Utah both are on their C bets, but they will be playing each other...so you gonna have a series win and a D bet after...
Question...I assume just bet on both and lose the juice, or there is a different way to do it, like cancel out the bets and just do the D bet?

Definitely cancel, especially on a C bet. There will definitely be a D bet, outside of a push. Why spend more money than you have to if that D bet should happen to lose.

**Grinder12000** · 02-26-13, 06:30 PM

Originally Posted by Grinder12000
Have to dummy it up a little.

Gee thanks

Take stuff out that would make no sense

ON ANOTHER NOTE - I places the wrong bets this morning at 5 freaking 30 WRONG DAY LOL Minnesota STILL had a +1.5 so I never caught the change. grrrrrrr COME ON TIMBER!

Better get to work on the RIGHT PLAY

MINUS SIXTEEN???

I got -9 on 76ers

I assume just bet on both and lose the juice, or there is a different way to do it,

Cancel each game out - I'll have 0.15u on Utah to cancel but I would not play either or just enough to cover any difference in how much you have spent already. In your books you can add and subtrack the games but they will wash and all will come out good or bad in the D game

**John Deere** · 02-26-13, 06:31 PM

Mouvement line on 76ers game.

**miczz14** · 02-26-13, 07:52 PM

Originally posted by Jellybeans

I am sure this question may have come up....
tomorrow 27-Feb-2013, Atl and Utah both are on their C bets, but they will be playing each other...so you gonna have a series win and a D bet after...
Question...I assume just bet on both and lose the juice, or there is a different way to do it, like cancel out the bets and just do the D bet?

it's a atl fade and uta play so it's a win win scenario if uta won and covers

**Maleku** · 02-26-13, 08:53 PM

Really Philly?

**John Deere** · 02-26-13, 09:45 PM

WTF is going on with Clips line.

**Tyssul** · 02-26-13, 10:58 PM

Curious

Probably been asked before Stif but I'm curious what outcomes were if you ran series to 5 instead of 4. I'm guessing with less than 4 plays a year on average anything could happen. Curious what the outcomes would have been on your 28 series losses since you kept track. After D loses you would be playing $21.39 to win $19.45 so after losing D you weigh up eating $18.45 loss against risking $21.39 more to achieve the win. If E win rate was 75% as per D then you would expect only 1 series loss a year costing $39.84 compared to 4 losses costing $73.80. Cheers!

**Wallco99** · 02-26-13, 11:12 PM

Originally posted by miczz14

it's a atl fade and uta play so it's a win win scenario if uta won and covers

Yeah, you are right, and two of us answered this improper question. This is all because some people just can't fukking wait for Stifler to post the plays, no matter how many times we say it. Instead, they go on with their "what if's...what if's...what if's?". Really getting tiresome. no matter how many times we say it.

**cambertos** · 02-27-13, 12:53 AM

Did anyone double take when they saw the Orlando score? I had to refresh my page 3 times

**cambertos** · 02-27-13, 12:57 AM

Originally posted by Wallco99

Yeah, you are right, and two of us answered this improper question. This is all because some people just can't fukking wait for Stifler to post the plays, no matter how many times we say it. Instead, they go on with their "what if's...what if's...what if's?". Really getting tiresome. no matter how many times we say it.

This, is really good posting.

**Jellybeans** · 02-27-13, 02:29 AM

Sorry guys....I totally screwed up!!!
It is a Utah C bet and a Atl fade C bet (misunderstood as a Atl play/follow), so basically 2 separate series, but same game Atl @ Utah.
Damn hope I didn't cause anymore confusion than I already have

Thanks for pointing that out.

**Stifler** · 02-27-13, 05:34 AM

Originally posted by Stifler

26.02.2013

S2

(B Bet) Orl fade: Memphis -13,5 1,10u | 76ers -9,5 2,31u

S3

(A Bet) Char fade: Clippers -15,5 1,10u

records:
S1: W 56 | L 3 (+ 0,65 units)
S2: W 30 | L 2 (- 6,90 units)
S3: W 19 | L 0 (+19,00 units)
S4: W 41 | L 1 (+24,55 units)
additional:
-1,10 units Den fade
-3,41 units S4 Tor fade > closing line covers

pending:
- S2 Bos, B Bet on 01.03.2013 (missed series)
- S2 Orl fade, C Bet on 04.03.2013
- S3 Atl fade, C Bet on 27.02.2013
- S1 Utah, C Bet on 27.02.2013

________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

**Grinder12000** · 02-27-13, 09:59 AM

Not sure this will work - Note that the dates are ALL 2013 - my bad. So I have Column A is a Sort.

Can't say this is error free and some numbers could be off by one or two - if you have any questions just PM me.

Welcome to the cloud! LOL

Dropbox - 404

https://dl.dropbox.com/u/78115710/CHASE_sheet1.xlsx

**parlay100** · 02-27-13, 10:22 AM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

Not sure this will work - Note that the dates are ALL 2013 - my bad. So I have Column A is a Sort.

Can't say this is error free and some numbers could be off by one or two - if you have any questions just PM me.

Welcome to the cloud! LOL

https://dl.dropbox.com/u/78115710/CHASE_sheet1.xlsx

Damn i should have paid more attention in class. Great job. and thanks for sharing.

**Stifler** · 02-27-13, 11:36 AM

27.02.2013

S1

(C Bet) Utah: Utah +9 1,10u | Utah -6,5 2,31u| Utah - waiting on line movement
(A Bet) Det fade: Washington - waiting on line movement

S2

(A Bet) Orl fade: Sacramento +1 1,10u

S3

(C Bet) Atl fade: Milwaukee -4,5 1,10u | Detroit +3 2,31u| Utah - waiting on line movement

S4

(A Bet) Sac fade: Orlando -1 1,10u

________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

**Grinder12000** · 02-27-13, 12:05 PM

this is the one thing I don't like about this Chase but I can't think of how to fix it. Putting so much on one game, BUT I suppose it's just like a D game.

**Stifler** · 02-27-13, 12:34 PM

- Washington line added.

27.02.2013

S1

(C Bet) Utah: Utah +9 1,10u | Utah -6,5 2,31u| Utah - waiting on line movement
(A Bet) Det fade: Washington -7 1,10u

S2

(A Bet) Orl fade: Sacramento +1 1,10u

S3

(C Bet) Atl fade: Milwaukee -4,5 1,10u | Detroit +3 2,31u| Utah - waiting on line movement

S4

(A Bet) Sac fade: Orlando -1 1,10u

________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

**on3** · 02-27-13, 01:05 PM

hate this Utah (-4.5)/ATL line. Utah is 1-5 against ATL last 6, ugh. Just hate, hate, hate this line, should be -1. Looking to tease against something else. Any recommendations?

**imotiv8** · 02-27-13, 01:29 PM

Originally posted by on3

hate this Utah (-4.5)/ATL line. Utah is 1-5 against ATL last 6, ugh. Just hate, hate, hate this line, should be -1. Looking to tease against something else. Any recommendations?

tease with Golden State

**parlay100** · 02-27-13, 01:57 PM

Originally posted by on3

hate this Utah (-4.5)/ATL line. Utah is 1-5 against ATL last 6, ugh. Just hate, hate, hate this line, should be -1. Looking to tease against something else. Any recommendations?

play a two team parlay on the ML with a solid or leave it open for a stronger play down the road

**Grinder12000** · 02-27-13, 02:28 PM

Utah is 1-5 against ATL last 6,

Hell - that is the reason you SHOULD bet Utah - crap like that is meaningless and will always come back to even.

**DustyDiamond** · 02-27-13, 06:09 PM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

Not sure this will work - Note that the dates are ALL 2013 - my bad. So I have Column A is a Sort.

Can't say this is error free and some numbers could be off by one or two - if you have any questions just PM me.

Welcome to the cloud! LOL

https://dl.dropbox.com/u/78115710/CHASE_sheet1.xlsx

Thanks!!!!

**Stifler** · 02-27-13, 06:32 PM

- Utah line added.

27.02.2013

S1

(C Bet) Utah: Utah +9 1,10u | Utah -6,5 2,31u| Utah -4 4,85u
(A Bet) Det fade: Washington -7 1,10u

S2

(A Bet) Orl fade: Sacramento +1 1,10u

S3

(C Bet) Atl fade: Milwaukee -4,5 1,10u | Detroit +3 2,31u| Utah -4 4,85u

S4

(A Bet) Sac fade: Orlando -1 1,10u

________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

**Grinder12000** · 02-27-13, 06:43 PM

Why are some books waiting on Utah! Is there an upside or downside with an injury? Been waiting all day for -4.0 can get -4.5 -105 at a couple books but no movement yet down.

**Stifler** · 02-27-13, 06:57 PM

milsap is questionable

**Grinder12000** · 02-27-13, 07:11 PM

Ronnie Milsap can sing.

**CheeseHead** · 02-27-13, 07:12 PM

Wizards line already down to -6 and 5dimes has never moved to -4 for the Jazz. Ugh

**Grinder12000** · 02-27-13, 07:23 PM

All 3 of my books have been at -4.5 -105 all day

**John Deere** · 02-27-13, 08:08 PM

-3.5 now.

**CheeseHead** · 02-27-13, 08:10 PM

Utah at -4 -105 now on 5dimes

**CheeseHead** · 02-27-13, 08:11 PM

Millsap is OUT