AFL opening spreads

**Alt75** · 07-21-11, 01:15 AM

Good to hear

What will you be betting on over summer? Padball?

LOL at Martingale. Funny you mention I've had some dude tell me the other day martingale for red/black is a foolproof system for roulette and the casinos will boot you when they catch on when you're using it, after my Giants/Padres **** up I haven't felt in a position to call him a blithering idiot so I just sarcastically agree.

It would have been around 8/9pm or so EST I checked in here. I'm on a few private mma stream/trackers sites the boxing wasn't scheduled for any site, all justintv links had been copywritten killed had nearly given up on finding one but some Aussie bloke hooked up a last minute ustream with a HD webcam on his tv lol just before the entrances, it wasn't the best quality but did the job. Every other sport I check myp2p.eu, veetle or googling.

Should have chanced some more, at least it mended the dent in my sportingbet hit a little.
Tarver wasn't going to be in on some friends fix like RJJ or take a dive like that other scrub, old man strength is the last thing to go. I was kind of expecting a dodgy decision for Green if it went the distance but felt Tarver would easily outbox him enough for a tko from Green not being able to defend/accumulated damage, at those odds it was worth at least a few coins, didn't think he'd be KO'd on his feet though. Green can fight ex rugby/afl players in netball stadiums now. Everyone get on Vic Darchinyan, he can box.

**aunty jack** · 07-21-11, 07:19 AM

don't worry about a tarver vs green rematch. i want to see tarver take on wendi deng!

i doubt he'd go the distance against rupert's biyatch...

**sportscash** · 07-21-11, 08:28 AM

Yeah i agree that that Freo prop is value

**donkson** · 07-21-11, 09:08 AM

It would take some ball to martingale on 1.15 lines.

**Gee** · 07-21-11, 06:56 PM

lol, no i meant the spread.

I was joking btw. I would never advocate martingale betting anything seriously.

Alt: you are on mmatracker? I moved out of home a few years back and forgot my username and password there

I had been a member since around 2001 or very early on anyway. I may need to get back in at some point to get old pride vids etc, although I think I have most of them. I'll expect betting will slow down in the offseason from bases and afl, but I'll bet a lot of american football, college baskets, pick up tennis again and nbl. Goo wildcats!

The Crows really SHOULD cover tonight... but I'm not sure I'd put money on it. I'm having a good look at their TT o/62.5 as well... That will likely be my play.

**benrama** · 07-21-11, 08:47 PM

I think you would be martingaling the quarter spreads, not the ML - that would be suicide.

I do like the 1Q bet on Collingwood though, GC have started most games horribly.

**brettels** · 07-21-11, 09:04 PM

saints/crows over 164.5

saints 1-39

saints QT line -9.5

if you tail me and lose its your own fault, or just dont let me know cause if i know and lose i feel bad

**Lookingtostart** · 07-21-11, 09:22 PM

Don't mention the "m" word around here.

Gee, the TT over for Adelaide looks alright, how confident are you with the Crows at Etihad?

**Gee** · 07-21-11, 09:38 PM

I think they cover the 37.5. its a good bet, but I've marked the TT over as a stronger play. I'm moving away from playing two correlated plays on the same game, especially at this stage of the season.

Saints have played a good brand of footy of late and could put the Crows away, especially at Etihad.

All the stats point to the Crows scoring over 62.5 points though. I'm going to have 2x or 2.5x on it I think. To be confirmed later.

Edit: currently have 2x on it. Line just dropped to 36.5. It will drop further IMO.

**brettels** · 07-21-11, 09:43 PM

this year adelaides played 4 games at etihad for an average score of 77

**Lookingtostart** · 07-21-11, 10:12 PM

Cheers guys, I might take the over

**benrama** · 07-21-11, 11:21 PM

St Kilda's defense is what has been keeping them alive and they kept both West Coast and the Bulldogs below this Adelaide total, so I'd suggest not making your play too large on them. I do however, like the +36.5 handicap and just jumped on it for 1X. Just have to hope the side that played strong against Carlton (lost by 7 at Etihad) and Collingwood (had them for 3Q's) comes to play - get the sense that Adelaide likes getting up for the "big" games and I think they'll treat this game as one.

Also love the Fiji +61.5 handicap against the All Blacks for those following the game at 5:30pm.

**Alt75** · 07-21-11, 11:25 PM

Originally posted by Gee

lol, no i meant the spread.

I was joking btw. I would never advocate martingale betting anything seriously.

Alt: you are on mmatracker? I moved out of home a few years back and forgot my username and password there

I had been a member since around 2001 or very early on anyway. I may need to get back in at some point to get old pride vids etc, although I think I have most of them. I'll expect betting will slow down in the offseason from bases and afl, but I'll bet a lot of american football, college baskets, pick up tennis again and nbl. Goo wildcats!

The Crows really SHOULD cover tonight... but I'm not sure I'd put money on it. I'm having a good look at their TT o/62.5 as well... That will likely be my play.

Indeed I am, another site you'll find handy too. Will send you a PM.

If you do a padball thread I will hang out in that. I'm not big on it I get some tips from a Yank friend on MLB/NFL & NCAA padball. College hoops I followed and bet on a little last season. Good thing about MMA is there are no seasons and there's orgs like Bellator, Strikeforce (soon to be disbanded most likely) Dream and the K1-GP which is personally the best combat sport event on the year imo. Shark/HDnet fights and other bushleague orgs in between UFC events. Most of these are only up on sportingbet though. On the Bellator card this weekend really liking Ronnie Mann over Pat Curran at $2.05.

I'm pretty much on the same page as you guys for footy tonight, St Kilda 1-39 or Adelaide to cover. Not sure about the total, seems low for Etihad but Adelaide aren't a high scoring side and neither are St Kilda really.

In league Storm to cover the -4.0 and I think I'm staying away from Bulldogs v Eels.

**Gee** · 07-22-11, 04:36 AM

Thanks for PM. Will reply in a sec.

Good luck tonight!

I upped my bet to 3x

I also got on the storm for 1x.

I haven't looked into bellator yet. I will later on on this boring night in... I won't have a padball thread - I leave that kind of thread to the yanks. It isn't a very thread friendly area is you just wanna hang out and talk about the games. I've never had a thread, but as you know its pretty hostile in the american sports forums

Maybe I'll keep posting what I'm playing in here from time to time... we'll see.

**Alt75** · 07-22-11, 04:49 AM

Just put fitty cents on Adelaide @ $7 and another fitty cents on Crows, Broncos and Bulldogs multi'd to win $23 in case it's a night of underdogs again.

Anyone needs a stream for Storm v Broncos

http://www.stopstream.tv/ch4.html

Bellator is still fairly new, it was originally targeted at the Hispanic crowd on ESPN Deportes, now it's on MTV2. They use a tournament format for diff weight classes each year, to get a title shot fighter has to win the tourney. It's not decided by matchmakers favouring money makers or star names, don't have the depth of the UFC/Strikeforce, mostly lighter guys but some really great fights/events as a whole. No bawdy production either.

Oh btw cheers and good luck to you too, need it following me.

Storm looking good early though.

SBR chat is down? I just tried to join and see if we could get the other Friday night scragglers on.

**brettels** · 07-22-11, 05:08 AM

QT line wins again

**Alt75** · 07-22-11, 05:25 AM

What a ******* bs try

**Gee** · 07-22-11, 05:28 AM

Tippet fukn killing me. Buried.

Nice call on the 1q. I was close to taking it too, but laid off

**brettels** · 07-22-11, 05:30 AM

i ment to get on milne most goals but forgot

really hope broncos do not score again and melbourne get couple more tries in at least.

adelaide need to be more competetive and take a shot to keep em under 40

**Gee** · 07-22-11, 05:40 AM

Crows can't kick straight.

Game over.

Can barely even watch this.

**Alt75** · 07-22-11, 05:54 AM

I'm not even gonna bother to put it on delay. Can see the scores on bet365 looks like I'm gonna lose both $5 bets. Try being sensible and I'm either completely wrong and/or get screwed. Hopefully Adelaide put in a better performance in the 2nd half and I scrape in 1-1 for the evening.

Can't believe the HT/FT double was ruined by that bs last minute try. The draw - Melbourne HT/FT double was paying $19 on bet365. I thought of putting even just 25 cents in case it was drawn at HT.

Now I'm trying to minimise a loss, potentially 2 with a live margin bet I could have taken $1+ higher before the game.

**Lookingtostart** · 07-22-11, 05:59 AM

Anyone got any live betting advice for this game?

I couldn't bet on the total, Centrebet wouldn't let me log in

, though I bet on the Adelaide line.

**Alt75** · 07-22-11, 06:02 AM

Live line at HT is 64.5 - total 163.5 @ $1.85

No advice I can't even win myself money tonight. Not risking any more, played Storm 1-12 live. I'm just hoping Crows scrape it back under 37 points.

3rd Quarter handicap -9.5. Saints have won both quarters by 4 goals.

**brettels** · 07-22-11, 06:56 AM

Adelaide are worse than richmond lol can't believe it.

**shari91** · 07-22-11, 07:03 AM

Originally posted by brettels

Adelaide are worse than richmond lol can't believe it.

They're horrible. On a good note, I made some nice money on this match by just continuing to dump cash on the Saints on bet365. Even better I only wasted about 15 minutes of my life watching this crap before turning Masterchef back on. This is a Gold Coast scoreline.

**brettels** · 07-22-11, 07:08 AM

Originally posted by shari91

They're horrible. On a good note, I made some nice money on this match by just continuing to dump cash on the Saints on bet365. Even better I only wasted about 15 minutes of my life watching this crap before turning Masterchef back on. This is a Gold Coast scoreline.

consider it 15 minutes paid work

**Alt75** · 07-22-11, 07:52 AM

Shari we mostly lost on this game, there is no good note. Unless of course you're offering to cook us all lunch and buy beers with your winnings and inspiration from Masterchef.

**shari91** · 07-22-11, 08:15 AM

Originally posted by Alt75

Shari we mostly lost on this game, there is no good note. Unless of course you're offering to cook us all lunch and buy beers with your winnings and inspiration from Masterchef.

I was wondering if some of you were on the Crows somehow just based on the posts during the match. I was moderating though so didn't have a chance to pay really close attention to what people were saying or had said pre match. And for sure I'll share - I learned how to make pumpkin ice cream, smashed cheesecake, damper and grill kangaroo tonight so if any of that sounds appetising, let me know!

Tomorrow will be a better day in the AFL.

**Alt75** · 07-22-11, 08:43 AM

I think we were all pretty much on Crows to cover or Saints 1-39. Poor Gee was on Crows to cover the 62.5 TT quite large. I was watching the Storm game, just keeping track of the AFL scores on bet365. Didn't care to play Saints live, knowing my luck Crows would've come back, although could've martingaled Saints to kick the next goal and ended up with a few k

Smashed cheesecake? I love cheesecake when smashed haha... Damper most Aussies learnt in Grade 3 or 4 school camp

pumpkin ice cream sounds a bit weird I love pumpkin soup though so would give it a try, my rsvp is in!

Yes tomorrow should be a better day. Pies 1Q -18.5 & full time -99.5 pyol should make up for tonight.

I'm off to watch the new ep of Breaking Bad, back tomorrow to post my square plays

**donkson** · 07-22-11, 07:37 PM

x2 for the cheesecake.

Pies 100+ at 2.65 lololol, I don't think I can bring myself to take that. But Collingwood Goals>Behinds @ 1.39 is a lock, gonna multi that with something for sure.

**Gee** · 07-22-11, 08:26 PM

lol. what a debacle of a night. that was unwatchable.

sweating out the reds here. tied 4-4, bottom of the 8th. c'mon votto. also KC, but they look good.

Going to take the bulldogs here i think. and yes, lets get the pies 1q to get us back in it. i'll figure out unit sizes after the bases. go cinci.

**brettels** · 07-22-11, 08:38 PM

NM vs BL
i'm taking a risk with the NM 1-39 for a small play today. kangaroos are better at etihad stadium than any other ground. based on the lions solid performance against geelong shows me they can at least be competitive. 40+ might be the better option but for value and faith i will take the kangaroos with a 1-39 win.
QT line roos -9.5
no total yet will get back to it

sydney/WB
wont pick a winner on this one
barry hall most goals
no total yet either will come back

**brettels** · 07-22-11, 09:18 PM

nm/bl totals 192.5 - over

**brettels** · 07-22-11, 09:32 PM

and swans/dogs total OVER 153.5

**Alt75** · 07-22-11, 10:05 PM

Originally posted by donkson

x2 for the cheesecake.

Pies 100+ at 2.65 lololol, I don't think I can bring myself to take that. But Collingwood Goals>Behinds @ 1.39 is a lock, gonna multi that with something for sure.

$2.65?

Sportsbet has the Pies -99.5 @ $3.40

Brettels remember no J Brown for Brisbane again, the forward line is going to be as organised... well as something that's not very organised, sorry couldn't think of an analogy.