Teddy Covers once again destroys overnight lines

[durito]

He would have had more value waiting until game day to post picks. He could have posted more winners for his clients, and his clients would have made more money if he had waited. He didn't, and now the market anticipates his release by killing the numbers as soon as they come out.

The arena pie (and WNBA pie, and all other niche markets) can grow and feed a lot more people if no one pigs out early. Or do you not understand how market collusion can help competitors?

There is no arena market. How much you make from arena this year? I bet covers dude kicked your ass.

[durito]

Cris, Pinny and Greek have never lowered a person's limits on sides/totals on the major sports. They might drop limits for the whole sport, but they generally don't take player-specific countermeasures.

Really?

[Justin7]

There is no arena market. How much you make from arena this year? I bet covers dude kicked your ass.

You're right. There is no market. It was actually larger the first week. No one had any idea how big/small it would be until it started and progressed.

[Justin7]

Really?

Generally, yes. If you exclude parlays, teasers and steam chasing. If you are just beating them on straight plays (and not controlling the whole market), I have never heard of any of these 3 books countering a player.

[Justin7]

You often give away(or at least try) to give away stuff that hurts all of us. You need to decide if you want to work for sportsbooks or be a bettor.

Once again I'm setting myself up, but... what have I done to cost you money this week?

[JohnnyC]

Cliff notes: Teddy Covers > Justin7

[Justin7]

Please, JohnnyC, spell it out. How is he better than me?

[whatsgood5]

Dude really knows his shit

[Thremp]

Once again I'm setting myself up, but... what have I done to cost you money this week?

Did you work on writing your book? Did you angle for more Bob Dancer-style consulting gigs posting free advice on how books can stop giving out money?

Really, why are we limiting ourselves to this week?

And the point is less that you're giving away money (I do this as well whenever I help anyone). It is that your are a ridiculous hypocrite.

[Thremp]

Please, JohnnyC, spell it out. How is he better than me?

Scoreboard.

[andywend]

Justin,

Teddy Covers is not the only handicapper analyzing arena football games.

If he did as you suggested and waited to release his picks closer to gametime when the limits went up, the chances are very strong that another handicapper would release his selections early and steal the spotlight.

It is unreasonable for you to expect Teddy Covers to care about your bottom line in any way, shape or form.

[SexyMit]

Yes this is where I picked up that Justin really doesn't have any idea what he is talking about. Bitching about a couple of worthless want to be touts (no offense personally dude, but you are a coin flipper) ****ing up his wnba market when they were doing nothing of the sort.

I wouldn't be making the money I do as a coin flipper.... Trust Me! I only flip coins on certain games not all of them.

[SexyMit]

Yes this is where I picked up that Justin really doesn't have any idea what he is talking about. Bitching about a couple of worthless want to be touts (no offense personally dude, but you are a coin flipper) ****ing up his wnba market when they were doing nothing of the sort.

And your right RAS Ed was moving the lines not us, not sure why Justin was bitching cause most of the time RAS just gave us a better line to take since he was on the wrong side more times then not last year. And even if he wasn't the total or play still would hit even after he moved the line.

[durito]

I wouldn't be making the money I do as a coin flipper.... Trust Me! I only flip coins on certain games not all of them.

Prop bet?

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-handicapping/210140-help-im-being-robbed-ck-sexymit-p5.html#post2538671

Any WNBA teasers this year?

You guys don't understand even the most basic fundamentals of advantage gambling.

[Justin7]

Prop bet?

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-handicapping/210140-help-im-being-robbed-ck-sexymit-p5.html#post2538671

Any WNBA teasers this year?

You guys don't understand even the most basic fundamentals of advantage gambling.

I probably overreacted last year. The first couple plays had some overlap, but there was a lot less after that. And then teasers... But I shouldn't say any more on the subject of WNBA half-point values, or I might get scolded.

[Thremp]

Nah. You'd probably just try to attract more attention so you can either pass off other people's ideas/data/systems as your own or just outright try to get a consulting gig so you can give away more information that you didn't even figure out solely. It is nice of your to see you actually addressing a criticism for once instead of just using some handwaving bullshit.

[Naz18]

Man Justin7 is getting exposed...

[Justin7]

Ok, Thremp. What did I pass off as my own idea that wasn't mine?

[Thremp]

A better question would be: Do you have any original ideas that weren't taken from others?

[Justin7]

Once again, you duck when confronted.

When someone else gives me an idea, I either attribute it to them, or don't share it, depending on their wishes.

But back to the original question. You said "You'd probably just try to attract more attention so you can either pass off other people's ideas/data/systems as your own". You are accusing me of plagiarism.

Surely you have one example where I wrongly plagiarized? Even one little one?

[SexyMit]

Once again, you duck when confronted.

When someone else gives me an idea, I either attribute it to them, or don't share it, depending on their wishes.

But back to the original question. You said "You'd probably just try to attract more attention so you can either pass off other people's ideas/data/systems as your own". You are accusing me of plagiarism.

Surely you have one example where I wrongly plagiarized? Even one little one?

You can blame ED from RAS for the line moves last year and this year, since he always beats the closing line. That seems to be all he is worried about is beating the closing line and not winning games.

[Justin7]

You can blame ED from RAS for the line moves last year and this year, since he always beats the closing line. That seems to be all he is worried about is beating the closing line and not winning games.

For most of the season, the line moves were after limits went up. At that point, the pie is as big as it gets.

[durito]

You can blame ED from RAS for the line moves last year and this year, since he always beats the closing line. That seems to be all he is worried about is beating the closing line and not winning games.

RAS releases after the games are un-circled. Thus they are irrelevant to Justin's problem.

Good luck picking winners.

[20Four7]

You need to quit crying about this

I agree, he's in here to make money (from selling picks) which is different than how your attempting to make yours. First you whined about the WNBA and now this.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Ok, Thremp. What did I pass off as my own idea that wasn't mine?

I'd be curious to know which ideas you conceptualized yourself. Didn't you just say you were working with some European statistician to develop an MLB RL conversion chart for your book and that you had never heard of logistic regression before? LOL.

I happen to agree with the vast majority of what Thremp has said here. It's very curious that you are so infatuated with what touts are doing in these markets. Certainly, those markets aren't efficient and what you're suggesting is that the steam from those touts (who are playing blindly into those markets at ANY price) is creating a line of no value. Please. Are you actually deriving your own lines or are you just playing picks from touts? I've never seen an advantage handicapper give a flying fukk what a tout is doing to the market other than to use it to take advantage of their influence in the market themselves. Then again, I've never seen an advantage handicapper claim that a book they're writing (which is supposed to be a cookbook for modeling sports) will help them in the long run when, if it were to be relevant, would only aid in creating higher efficiency in the markets.

[Justin7]

If I have no original ideas, I'm not likely to cost anyone anything. I do find it a bit humorous that I am accused of both plagiarism, being an idiot, and possibly hurting the markets at the same time.

The focus is on modeling and line setting. I doubt most people will have the time or patience to try it. If they do, it is still very hard to execute all the pieces. I am not worried about costing myself money. It's not like I'm giving out a list of sportsbook vulnerabilities, or a blueprint on how to win 97% of your bets. In the past though, giving out ideas has been profitable for me from the contacts and ideas that are bounced back at me.

One other thing I enjoy about sports is the thought process and the odd relationships that appear. I certainly wouldn't study sports without the expectation of making money, but the thinking and modeling process is actually fun.

It will hopefully go to the printer in the next 6 weeks. You can decide for yourself.

[Thremp]

Just "Bob Dancer" 7,

I'm glad you have come to grips that giving out handouts to get something in return is your MO. I wouldn't willingly give you a slice of information and hope you busto since you're basically a crook.

Are you saying that all the ideas put forth in this thread are your own and you developed? I'd like to wager a LARGEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE sum of money that is not the case and you're just looking for more handouts.

[Justin7]

If I say betting +3.5 -125 is probably better than +3 -110 in NFL, is that my idea? If I did my own conversion work, but other people have done this before also, does this make me a plagiarist? I think with your thinking, it does. There is a lot of somewhat common knowledge (where perhaps 5% or less of the bettors know it). You can figure it out for yourself, or someone can show you a bit faster. Are you angry that I'm helping people with things that are obvious to you?

You have accused me of plagiarism. Once again, I would ask you: point to one example where I stole someone's work and claimed it as my own.

[SexyMit]

I know of someone that did... John Morrison with WNBA last year. I know that is irrelevant in this thread, but he popped up last yr stole Samson 15's idea and then packaged and sold it as HIS OWN findings, when clearly it was not. It does happen, not saying that you have.

[Thremp]

If I say betting +3.5 -125 is probably better than +3 -110 in NFL, is that my idea? If I did my own conversion work, but other people have done this before also, does this make me a plagiarist? I think with your thinking, it does. There is a lot of somewhat common knowledge (where perhaps 5% or less of the bettors know it). You can figure it out for yourself, or someone can show you a bit faster. Are you angry that I'm helping people with things that are obvious to you? You have accused me of plagiarism. Once again, I would ask you: point to one example where I stole someone's work and claimed it as my own.

Again, put up your money. Why would I out people for no gain of my own? Everyone who is in the intelligentsia knows you peddle for handouts.

Under my thinking, you could not complete a single idea without outside help. But for this we'll just settle for blatant handouts. Other people giving/doing/helping you with ideas that you are incapable of doing yourself. I suppose though if you want to count some of the models you made (That sweet 57% NFL model), I guess those are entirely your own creation and the results bear out your ability.

[Thremp]

I'd like to point out how you cleverly twist everything other's say. Moving from where I said you were a beggar pushing off other's work as your own to "stealing", which are far different idea. You're a panhandler who gives away information to panhandle for more leads/information/handouts. You're not hacking computers for data. You do this with confusing "unfounded" and "untrue". What I'm saying might be "unfounded". IE I can't prove it without outing my sources which provides me no gain other than making a fool of you to other people who already know you're a jokester, but you've never once denied that panhandling is your calling card.

This is A++ level forum jockeying. You slowly distort the stance of the opposing party rather than just initially strawmanning it up. It'd the long con of strawmen. There should be a name for this sort of strawman. Maybe the Justin-trying-to-lie-about-his-pandling-ways-7-strawman-defense. That flows quite nicely.

[Justin7]

If you can't prove your point, change your point.

[Thremp]

If you can't prove your point, change your point.

Obfuscation. The best tactic of a man caught in the spotlight. Whatever. I like how you contend that morons can't hurt other's bottom line. As if by virtue of being an idiot, everything is completely incorrect. You seem completely naive to the idea that bringing up an idea may actually inspire someone who isn't completely dumb who try a non-retarded implementation of "your" idea.

But lets try to address the issues. Are you claiming you are not the beneficiary of handouts, or that what I have said is "untrue"? If so, I would like you to put up a large amount of money on this, so that I can have it and it can become friends with my money and be spent on gas, groceries, strippers, drugs, booze, etc and not used for your kids education, your rent, or whatever you spend your money on.

[Justin7]

But lets try to address the issues. Are you claiming you are not the beneficiary of handouts, or that what I have said is "untrue"?

A handout is something given with nothing in return. I have collaborated with many people. Sometimes they improve my product, sometimes I improve theirs. In every case where I worked with a person at length, both sides received substantial benefit. So to answer your question, I look for collaboration, not handouts.

If you are working solo, you'll never be more than a minnow.

[MonkeyF0cker]

If you are working solo, you'll never be more than a minnow.

That's one of the most ignorant statements I've ever seen.