Teddy Covers once again destroys overnight lines

[Om3n]

Teddy Covers Rockzzzz....

[rwsmith]

whoop whoop

[Thremp]

This is a business. The purpose is to extract as much money as possible. Another business is making irrational decisions, and costing me money. Both businesses could be more profitable if rationality were used.

Sick irony. Since you seem to have massive cognitive dissonance with this idea.

[Justin7]

Sick irony. Since you seem to have massive cognitive dissonance with this idea.

Care to elaborate? And are you sure you understand all the forces at work?

[Thremp]

Yes. You're starting a thread on an internet forum whining about someone else competent releasing numbers (this directly helps his income) that crush the market so you can't get a milkshake.

Yet... you're writing a book that would make a McDonald's worker laugh at the income (I think King Yao expects to make around 13k lifetime from his). So you can feel good? It can't both not harm others and be the best book ever written.

So congrats. You're possibly insane.


PS: I like the obfuscating 2nd question. Did you yank that from Star Wars?

[Justin7]

Yet... you're writing a book that would make a McDonald's worker laugh at the income (I think King Yao expects to make around 13k lifetime from his). So you can feel good? It can't both not harm others and be the best book ever written.

So congrats. You're possibly insane.


PS: I like the obfuscating 2nd question. Did you yank that from Star Wars?

The real benefits are not from sales. Any theories on my motives that assume that are likely to be wrong. Ergo, do you understand the forces at work?

[yuperz]

who

u know who is he on?

[Thremp]

The real benefits are not from sales. Any theories on my motives that assume that are likely to be wrong. Ergo, do you understand the forces at work?

Yep. You're whining about a guy taking money from your perceived pocket, when you're doing that to everyone else. The reasoning is plain. He does this for what he thinks will be more money down the road (increase subscriptions, fanbois etc). You are doing the exact same things as direct returns from your sales aren't the reason, so clearly you're either an idiot or hoping to extract some sort of value by being a perceived expert while utterly lacking in expertise.

Either way... we're back to cognitive dissonance.

No movie quotes this time? Or have you been starting another thread whining about someone else taking money that isn't yours to begin with.

[Justin7]

Yep. You're whining about a guy taking money from your perceived pocket, when you're doing that to everyone else. The reasoning is plain. He does this for what he thinks will be more money down the road (increase subscriptions, fanbois etc). You are doing the exact same things as direct returns from your sales aren't the reason, so clearly you're either an idiot or hoping to extract some sort of value by being a perceived expert while utterly lacking in expertise.

Either way... we're back to cognitive dissonance.

No movie quotes this time? Or have you been starting another thread whining about someone else taking money that isn't yours to begin with.

He would have had more value waiting until game day to post picks. He could have posted more winners for his clients, and his clients would have made more money if he had waited. He didn't, and now the market anticipates his release by killing the numbers as soon as they come out.

The arena pie (and WNBA pie, and all other niche markets) can grow and feed a lot more people if no one pigs out early. Or do you not understand how market collusion can help competitors?

[Thremp]

How do you know he has more value allowing you to bet his numbers? Will a higher WR not make more money in tout subscriptions?

You're so laughably naive and hypocritical, yet your whole ruse is positioning yourself at some sort of quasi-expert. You ever wonder why none of your ideas work season to season (Your own words)? Obv not.

Then again perhaps with the quality of some of your advice you're doing a lot to keep the pie as big as possible and ever growing.

FWIW I'll likely pig out on the WNBA pie as soon as I'm able. I personally don't give a **** about what you make. And actually with your arrogance and disregard for others, I'd like to see you have less than nothing.

[Justin7]

Wow. Did someone poop in your Cheerios this morning?

It has been spelled out for you. You're either clueless on sports markets, or just an antagonist. Given your ongoing tirades, I'll assume you aren't clueless (at least at sports).

[Thremp]

If I send you an e-mail each morning saying "You the best J7" will learn to STFU or is there no stopping you from giving away milkshakes to troll for ideas until someone comes along and un****s your ideas and roflpwns?

[Justin7]

I'm not fluent in troll-speak. Can you translate your last post?

[Thremp]

If I give you e-hugs, will you stop giving away my money?

[JohnnyC]

Your opinions do not fit with your actions justin. Teddy could very well get more value out of releasing the numbers early rather than waiting for the circles to come off. Lots of his value comes from media exposure, if he reports his results truthfully then jumping on good numbers at low limits is obviously going to benefit him in a variety of different ways.

Now you think you are aware of all the forces at work do you? Nope you don't. You do not know how Teddy hopes to benefit from betting early and there is much more going into his calculations than the EV of his subscibers/himself. Even if there is not, who cares it's none of your business.

You think you know what's best for all the competitors in this market. Yet you are set to release a book on sports betting that will take money away from all current competitors yourself included...then again I don't know your forces. Maybe we'll see you on E60 next month pal.

Also, keep thos phoenix wish lists coming.

Johnny.

[Justin7]

Covers got one week of easy-to-beat lines. In years past, most of the sharps would wait until limits went up. The same thing could have happened this year. If that happened, he could have posted winning picks for his clients all season long. Never mind money, but his own objective was likely diminished. The timing of his early releases destroyed the market in a way that hurt his own ability to get easy wins for his record.

There really aren't that many specialists in the smaller markets. Two years ago, the markets were mostly untouched until limits went up -- there was a collusive understanding among the Arena players to wait. Most of the bigger players cooperated, and it worked. If you have one who does not cooperate, everything disappears.

[JohnnyC]

Debating Teddy's best strategy is pointless due to too many unknown forces.

We know two things here:

1. You want competitors to bet in a way that you can benefit from.
2. You are writing a book that benefits you at the expense of current competitors.

[Justin7]

Debating Teddy's best strategy is pointless due to too many unknown forces.

We know two things here:

1. You want competitors to bet in a way that you can benefit from.
2. You are writing a book that benefits you at the expense of current competitors.

How do my actions affect his self-interest? It's easier to circumvent a logical argument than address it, but that tactic is often ineffective.

[19th Hole]

Id love to inflate my win record

That's easier said than done.

[Thremp]

How do my actions affect his self-interest? It's easier to circumvent a logical argument than address it, but that tactic is often ineffective.

They don't. But you make a ton of assumptions about how he should best make his money while freely giving away money. This is rampant hypocrisy. You use some handwaving and voodoo to assuage this. It'd probably be best though if it came out in the open and hopefully people would realize what you are: a ****ing hypocritical idiot.

[Justin7]

Thremp,

Do you even bet? Do you have ANY clue how the offshore market works? I really, really try to give you the benefit of the doubt - you contribute a in lot of interesting areas in other threads... But you really don't get it.

[Justin7]

Ok Themp. Instead of passively aggressively slinging shit my way, let's start with your statement: "Justin7 is a ****ing hypocritical idiot".

Well, there's actually two implicit statements in there. So pick one. I'm hypocritical? I'm an idiot? Make your case.

[Thremp]

Hypocrite. You whine about someone else giving away ricebowlz when its exactly what you do.

Idiot. That is self-evident. Backtesting models against data you derived it from? Using power rankings in lieu of Log5? Substituting players with less than three years played with league average? You're a meelie man. You're whole ruse is being a pseudo-expert so people give you freebie ideas.

[Thremp]

Idiot. Thinking I'm being "passive aggressive". Calling some a hypocritical idiot is not "passive aggressive".


Justin7: Using phrases he don't even know the meaning of.

[Justin7]

Hypocrite. You whine about someone else giving away ricebowlz when its exactly what you do.

I am annoyed when someone makes a decision that hurts their own self interests in addition to mine. The stuff I give away typically does not hurt me (or anyone else other than Sportsbooks).

Idiot. That is self-evident. Backtesting models against data you derived it from? Using power rankings in lieu of Log5? Substituting players with less than three years played with league average? You're a meelie man. You're whole ruse is being a pseudo-expert so people give you freebie ideas.

Backtesting bias... There is a difference between mini-maxing against spreads (where you may be curve fitting against past selections) versus using statistics to find relationships. If you look at 10,000 NCAAF games to conclude that 8 yards of added offense is worth about 1 point, this data has a tiny relationship to the spreads on the game you are later reviewing.Same thing on turnover analysis. If I conclude that turnovers are roughly 80% random, are the games I used to determine that relationship now "ruined"? If you never looked at the game spreads when generating your model, your bias is negligible. In a perfect world, you would use out of sample data... But are you better off isolating portions of your data for later testing and reducing your sample? Maybe yes, maybe no. But if you blindly say yes without weighing the costs, you have missed the big picture.

Power rankings vs log5... Power rankings are a starting point that most people can understand. I bet one loses more power by ignoring the impact of totals on moneylines, or misapplying strength of schedule adjustments than one gains from using log5 vs power rankings. There are an infinite number of ways you can spend your energy in modeling. You call someone an idiot because they allocate energy differently from you? Have you ever developed a successful model?

You misstated my conclusion in MLB. My conclusion was that using a current season's YTD statistics in MLB to project future performance is a bad idea. I read a thesis showing that this approach is so bad, you're better off using the league average (i.e. assume each player bats about .250) than trying to make projections on the current year's data. When discussing that thesis, the author concluded that until you have 3 seasons of data for a player, using the league average is a more accurate predictor. (and one would observe that after you have 3 years of data, much of the data you are relying on is now dated).

If you're going to attack every idea I share, at least have the decency to read and comprehend them first.

[Justin7]

Idiot. Thinking I'm being "passive aggressive". Calling some a hypocritical idiot is not "passive aggressive".


Justin7: Using phrases he don't even know the meaning of.

Passive aggressive. Making backhanded jabs that are false. Up until know, you have refused to come forward when confronted.

[SexyMit]

I remember this same conversation with WNBA last year....

[Justin7]

I remember this same conversation with WNBA last year....

And after awhile, the openers were left alone until limits went up.

[Thremp]

Nah bro. You're just making shit up cause now you're a lying hypocritical idiot. And they aren't backhanded jabs. I'm full on flaming you for being a meelie ****. Stop misrepresenting my position. I called you a "hypocritical liar" and supported that view with evidence. Now you're either 1) confirming the fact you're an idiot 2) adding liar to it.

Whatever. Goodluck spewing money and being a pseudo-expert to pay the rent. Have fun.

[Thremp]

Backtesting bias... Like your NFL model?
Power Ranking v Log5... This isn't a ****ing discussion. Its a question with an answer. Log5 is the ****ing answer. Anything else is ****ing retard talk. Like your above drivel. Anyone with a pulse could figure this out. You're arguing for 2+2=5 nonsense.
MLB... I'm glad. I read the back of shampoo bottles when I shit. Its probably better than that "paper".

[Justin7]

If you can't address the argument, call them a liar and say you are done.

[Thremp]

If you can't address the argument, call them a liar and say you are done.

I like this level of projection. You claim handwaving that your view of offshore markets, Teddy Covers modus operandi/utility curves, etc are correct while claiming this is "self-evident" (Do you even bet? Do you have ANY idea about offshore markets?).

You're a decent forum jockey. But sadly you're too **** stupid (stupid = idiot for purposes of discussion here) to avoid saying stuff that is obviously attacked. Why don't you post more free consults to sportsbook about how to make it harder to beat their lines and post some chickenshit reasoning for it.

[durito]

Thremp,

Do you even bet? Do you have ANY clue how the offshore market works? I really, really try to give you the benefit of the doubt - you contribute a in lot of interesting areas in other threads... But you really don't get it.

He bets and he gets it. You don't.

Your arena market had $250 limits 5 minutes before game time at pinny today. I could get more down on Colombian soccer.

[durito]

I am annoyed when someone makes a decision that hurts their own self interests in addition to mine. The stuff I give away typically does not hurt me (or anyone else other than Sportsbooks).

You often give away(or at least try) to give away stuff that hurts all of us. You need to decide if you want to work for sportsbooks or be a bettor.

[durito]

I remember this same conversation with WNBA last year....

Yes this is where I picked up that Justin really doesn't have any idea what he is talking about. Bitching about a couple of worthless want to be touts (no offense personally dude, but you are a coin flipper) ****ing up his wnba market when they were doing nothing of the sort.