Teddy Covers once again destroys overnight lines

**bozeman** · 04-09-10, 01:47 PM

is he very solid in AFL, what's his %?

**Bluehorseshoe** · 04-09-10, 02:24 PM

If he didn't do it, I'd like to know what moved the line on Spokane. My local has -9 1/2 and a price of -120 on them after they opened 2 point dogs.

**Naz18** · 04-09-10, 07:48 PM

Of course it's Teddy

**IrishTim** · 04-09-10, 09:06 PM

I just came to the Arena forum to post this exact same thread.

**spongerat** · 04-10-10, 12:02 AM

justin maybe you should have a talk with him

**spongerat** · 04-10-10, 12:05 AM

also, i don't get why he'd do this, can't he get more down if he waits?

**Spanks** · 04-10-10, 01:50 AM

lol

**Justin7** · 04-10-10, 09:53 AM

Originally posted by spongerat

also, i don't get why he'd do this, can't he get more down if he waits?

He is selling picks. He is also inflating his win-record on an easy market, even if none if his subscribers can get the same numbers.

**Emily_Haines** · 04-10-10, 02:09 PM

You need to quit crying about this

**mangina11** · 04-10-10, 02:22 PM

Id love to inflate my win record

**andywend** · 04-11-10, 06:49 AM

Teddy lost both games.

SAT, APRIL 10 Tulsa 63, Dallas 59SAT, APRIL 10 Bossier-Shreveport 73, Orlando 67

If Teddy is moving the lines that much then it makes sense to buy his picks solely for middle opportunities.

**Justin7** · 04-11-10, 09:21 AM

Originally posted by Emily_Haines

You need to quit crying about this

This is a business. The purpose is to extract as much money as possible. Another business is making irrational decisions, and costing me money. Both businesses could be more profitable if rationality were used.

**Club** · 04-11-10, 12:17 PM

Justin, do you think this mighty work in your favor at times? If Teddy Covers isn't very good and move the lines so much in arena football, shouldn't he move the lines in your favor every now and then which should be a pretty big bonus given how far the lines move in this league. Do you recall that happening with arena football in the past?

**Justin7** · 04-11-10, 03:59 PM

Club,

Tedd Covers is in the "boys club". He has the best information out there. Every one of his plays has been the right side so far.

**Club** · 04-11-10, 06:07 PM

That's too bad.

**Service Plays** · 04-11-10, 07:12 PM

When do arena lines normally come out? Also when does Teddy release these selections?

**Justin7** · 04-11-10, 07:51 PM

Lines come out Wednesday. Limits don't go up to max until game day. Teddy gives out the whole weekend card on Friday, even though Saturday games still have overnight limits.

**HoulihansTX** · 04-11-10, 09:58 PM

You should E-Mail Chad Millman about this.

**IrishTim** · 04-11-10, 10:42 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

You should E-Mail Chad Millman about this.

The ESPN guy? What does he have to do with anything?

**egr99** · 04-12-10, 09:02 AM

i think their doing a reality tv show with covers/fezz etc...

**skrtelfan** · 04-12-10, 04:09 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

This is a business. The purpose is to extract as much money as possible. Another business is making irrational decisions, and costing me money. Both businesses could be more profitable if rationality were used.

What's irrational about it? As a tout, his goal is to have the best W-L record possible. Of course when almost no one can get down at his numbers the W-L record is inflated and useless, but the gaudy W-L record is his main motivation.

Would you rather he go work for Pinnacle and cost you money that way?

**Justin7** · 04-12-10, 05:15 PM

Originally posted by skrtelfan

What's irrational about it? As a tout, his goal is to have the best W-L record possible. Of course when almost no one can get down at his numbers the W-L record is inflated and useless, but the gaudy W-L record is his main motivation.

Would you rather he go work for Pinnacle and cost you money that way?

He could make a ton more betting Arena versus mature markets than any amount of money he could generate selling "3-packs".

The long-term cost to his information supply may be significant as well.

**durito** · 04-12-10, 05:40 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

Lines come out Wednesday. Limits don't go up to max until game day. Teddy gives out the whole weekend card on Friday, even though Saturday games still have overnight limits.

Originally posted by Justin7

He could make a ton more betting Arena versus mature markets than any amount of money he could generate selling "3-packs".

The long-term cost to his information supply may be significant as well.

Did you see the limits this week?

Pinny had $250 till gameday and then $500. Greek/Bookmaker had $500 open to close. Is this really worth your time?

Is this covers clown really sharp?

Most of those lines bounced everywhere. You so sure he isn't gonna go move a line 10pts the wrong way? That'd be a nice pick up.

**Justin7** · 04-12-10, 07:46 PM

Bookmaker took 1k from a post up account on game day. If you don't mind burning out accounts, you can easily get 10k per game in net exposure. But this does not work against the opening number - you need to wait a bit.

**Justin7** · 04-12-10, 07:46 PM

Originally posted by durito

Most of those lines bounced everywhere. You so sure he isn't gonna go move a line 10pts the wrong way?

I'm sure.

**durito** · 04-12-10, 09:06 PM

My bookmaker account had 1k the first week and $500 the 2nd, right up to game time. Same thing at oly.

You need to find some locals.

**durito** · 04-12-10, 09:14 PM

What do his picks cost? I can't imagine he has that many subscribers, but it wouldn't have to be that many. You'll get a delay anywhere for max betting a arena line that's about to move 10pts.

RAS was gonna do 25 subscribers at $10k for their hoops totals. He was +44 units (though at over 60% every year he is leaving money on the table by not playing more games). He'd have to get more than 5k down on each to make more than that. I suppose that's wouldn't be difficult if you had access to new account every year. That's way more betting opportunities than arena though.

Not to mention the tout makes the same bad season or good season. No hassles from books, no hassles moving money, etc. I don't think he's losing much $.

Try and get him to release after full limits come out like RAS does.

**spongerat** · 04-13-10, 12:00 AM

not worth it, he moves the lines too much.

**egr99** · 04-13-10, 03:58 AM

Originally posted by durito

Is this covers clown really sharp?

I guess he is decent... 5-2 so far.

His record as per the recap on site:

Wk1: 2-1
Wk2: 3-1

Apr 10
Orlando +7.5 WIN
Dallas -3.5 LOSS

Apr 9
Clev +12.5 WIN
Spoke -5.5 WIN

Apr 3
Tampa -3 LOSS
Jacksonville +1 WIN

Apr 2
Chicago -3 WIN

**Bluehorseshoe** · 04-14-10, 07:26 PM

Originally posted by durito

My bookmaker account had 1k the first week and $500 the 2nd, right up to game time. Same thing at oly. You need to find some locals.

But a local won't put up Arena until game day.

**skrtelfan** · 04-14-10, 10:01 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

He could make a ton more betting Arena versus mature markets than any amount of money he could generate selling "3-packs".

The long-term cost to his information supply may be significant as well.

That assumes he's actually a winning bettor.

**Justin7** · 04-14-10, 11:09 PM

If you have good information in a small sport, it's almost impossible to lose. I don't know how he is in other sports, but he will win in Arena.

**durito** · 04-16-10, 06:39 PM

Nice $250 maxes at pinny 20 minute before game time.

**pat venditto** · 04-23-10, 04:00 AM

Teddy Covers is pounding them fuks durito