Horse Racing questions and answers

[str]

hey str

do you feel the race a horse had prior to a win can have an effect on it repeating ?

an even run or slow fade vs better (faster) company might propel a horse more than a win or competitive effort in the race prior to the win .. along the lines that there might be more of a tightening effect that carries forward exiting the faster race vs a good finish in the slower one .. like winning via feeling the relief of the class drop might be more likely to carryover for one more race

Really important question for me to try and relay my thoughts correctly without screwing it up. So I think I might approach this question by breaking it down. Because there are so many scenarios to that last win, I really do not want to type something that is not fully explained.
Let me figure out how to break this down into shorter responses over several posts instead of one long rambling mess which I would otherwise end up typing.

The early answer is it depends on too many scenarios when you talk about the race BEFORE the win to give one answer. I will try and put together a few scenarios over a few different answers. This one will keep me busy for a while. Lol.
I'll be back to start ASAP. Thanks JBEX.

[JBEX]

Really important question for me to try and relay my thoughts correctly without screwing it up. So I think I might approach this question by breaking it down. Because there are so many scenarios to that last win, I really do not want to type something that is not fully explained.
Let me figure out how to break this down into shorter responses over several posts instead of one long rambling mess which I would otherwise end up typing.

The early answer is it depends on too many scenarios when you talk about the race BEFORE the win to give one answer. I will try and put together a few scenarios over a few different answers. This one will keep me busy for a while. Lol.
I'll be back to start ASAP. Thanks JBEX.

apologize if I opened up a can of worms str lol ..no need to bother if you'd rather not and it makes sense to me that it's not a straightforward one size fits all answer .. I will (not right now) give you one example that I like and set parameters for variables like time in-between,distance and class..
appreciate you offering to do it either way

[str]

apologize if I opened up a can of worms str lol ..no need to bother if you'd rather not and it makes sense to me that it's not a straightforward one size fits all answer .. I will (not right now) give you one example that I like and set parameters for variables like time in-between,distance and class..
appreciate you offering to do it either way

Its a wide ranging question for sure. I like it though. What I will explain is how I saw and see different scenarios. It m ight make sense or not really register with everyone. That's fine. Certainly more than one way to handicap. But if people wanted to see how I made certain judgements about things, if that helps, I'm all for it. This entire thread has been about helping people see from other directions what others ( me) ,(I) saw. I hope it helps.

[JBEX]

Its a wide ranging question for sure. I like it though. What I will explain is how I saw and see different scenarios. It m ight make sense or not really register with everyone. That's fine. Certainly more than one way to handicap. But if people wanted to see how I made certain judgements about things, if that helps, I'm all for it. This entire thread has been about helping people see from other directions what others ( me) ,(I) saw. I hope it helps.

look forward to see how you view this or maybe more accurately different types of scenarios involving this situation .. I will hold off on my example for now so we can focus on what you have to say about it

[JBEX]

deterministic ( R9 , #10 , 5-1 ) is scheduled to make his 5yo debut in the maker's mark mile (grade 1) at keeneland on Friday .. the favorite is last year's breeders cup mile winner

[Optional]

Awful jockey accident in Australia today

"Queensland country jockey Shane McGovern is facing the devastating prospect of losing both legs after being trapped beneath a dead horse for six agonising hours at Charters Towers on Wednesday."

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/queensland-country-jockey-shane-mcgovern-facing-the-prospect-of-having-both-legs-amputated-after-trackwork-accident-20260410

[JBEX]

deterministic ( R9 , #10 , 5-1 ) is scheduled to make his 5yo debut in the maker's mark mile (grade 1) at keeneland on Friday .. the favorite is last year's breeders cup mile winner

about half the field is scratched including deterministic and it's a firm turf .. not sure what's going on there .. very disappointed

[batt33]

about half the field is scratched including deterministic and it's a firm turf .. not sure what's going on there .. very disappointed

That is strange at first glance with all the scratches I thought it was weather related.

[batt33]

Honestly, I have no problem with the race at all. I saw enough to know that he will win. He got very tired. Makes sense. All that kickback from a wet track? Never happened to him before most likely. He was understandably confused and burned a ton of energy from the gate to the 5/8ths pole, finally took a breath, actually responded for about 6 jumps when asked but was clearly out of gas and leg weary at the 3/8ths pole area.
So what now? He needs to pick himself up, and he will, work a bit behind some horses and learn to split them or go by and finish up NOT out of air. Once he gets the hang of that, he will be ready to run back where he will improve. Of course Mike knows all of this.
He will be just fine, and now the expectations are low. Perfect time to get better. No pressure.

Munny problem is making his second start at STR's Stomping grounds
Munny Problem: Entered



Munny Problem has been entered to run on Sunday, Apr. 12 in race 9 at Laurel Park. Your colt will break from post 3 of 7 with Mychel Sanchez aboard. Trainer Michael Trombetta saw that this option in the condition book seemed to be coming up a tad light and opted to enter your son of Munnings in this three-and-up, two-turn turf maiden special weight event. We will be back in the coming days with a closer look at the race.

Munny Problem: Race Overview



Munny Problem is set to make his second career start in race 9 on Sunday, Apr. 12 at Laurel Park. He will break from post 3 in a 7-horse field with Mychel Sanchez in the irons. Post time will be at 3:51 p.m. ET.

Your son of Munnings has posted two fast works at Fair Hill since he shipped north from Florida and seems to be doing very well coming into this start. In his debut, he was a bit tardy out of the gate and was hung out very wide throughout, making the task of debuting around two turns that much more difficult. Though her will face older horses for the first time, he will have a nice weight allowance and we expect a much-improved effort from him with a race under his belt.

the competition:

#1 Rosie’s Word: Missed by a head for the $30K tag at Turfway last out. He was competitive on synthetic, though his figures are a bit slow. He will try turf for the first time, but lacks any real turf pedigree.

#2 Copper Ghost: Fellow Trombetta trainee and past workmate of Munny Problem who will have to carry 126lbs (9lbs more than Munny Problem) due to being a year older. Makes his turf debut after four decent tries on synthetic.

#4 Roktar: Was well beaten on debut at Turfway Park in an auction price-restricted maiden event. Faces a tougher group here and will seek improvement switching to the turf.

#5 Zencat: Has been beaten a combined 39 3/4 lengths in his two starts this year. Goes back to the turf in hopes of improvement.

#6 Chatbot: Well beaten in both career starts. Will try turf in what seems to be a bit of desperation. This gelding lacks any real turf pedigree.

#7 Free Refills: Sports 9 works on the year coming into this debut with a bit of an irregular work pattern and will debut around two turns, making this a tall task.

[JBEX]

I like your horse at laurel batt .. even better than the trainer's other one

[batt33]

I like your horse at laurel batt .. even better than the trainer's other one

This was from awhile back..

Munny Problem has remained on a normal training routine at Gulfstream Park since his debut and had his first work back this morning breezing a very easy half mile in :51.34.

After speaking with trainer Mike Trombetta further, we have decided we will be moving your colt to Fair Hill this coming week. In speaking with Mike, he feels that the Laurel Park turf course will suit him much better as it has a bit more give to it versus the very firm Gulfstream Park turf course. In addition, Fair Hill is a tremendous place for a horse to train and be stabled with the various courses to train over (dirt, synthetic, and turf gallops), along with the potential for turn-out time as well. While the turf season does not begin until about mid-April at Laurel, Mike said he would not be afraid look at a MSW on dirt either if Munny Problem trains forwardly enough over it in the coming weeks. This time of year, the dirt maiden special weights typically go with light and short fields, which is a bonus. We will let Mike make those final determinations of where and when exactly he wants to run, but we wanted to inform you of our current plan and thought process.

[JBEX]

just saw an army mule miss by a neck at oaklawn (R9) .. an allowance race ($125k) .. just happened to notice the name as the race was being run .. wasn't looking for them

[JBEX]

Awful jockey accident in Australia today

"Queensland country jockey Shane McGovern is facing the devastating prospect of losing both legs after being trapped beneath a dead horse for six agonising hours at Charters Towers on Wednesday."

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/quee...ident-20260410

and what he had to endure for that many hours .. awful incident

[JBEX]

army mule has an even money favorite in R4 @ kee saturday which is a msw race .. #4 shewontbudge