Horse Racing questions and answers

[JBEX]

think there's potentially a lot of talented horses that will exit that race .. obviously difficult to win 1st out especially going two turns on the grass but will certainly be rooting for and would not be surprised with a good effort from yours .. I like #3 easy pick (9-2) and will probably post that in my thread tomorrow .. best of luck tomorrow batt

[JBEX]

soldier n diplomat (army mule) is a scheduled to run on sunday in the rebel stakes at oaklawn .. this race is the 2nd leg in their derby prep series .. it's R11 and he's #10 (10-1 ml) .. post time is 6:23

[JBEX]

soldier n diplomat (army mule) is a scheduled to run on sunday in the rebel stakes at oaklawn .. this race is the 2nd leg in their derby prep series .. it's R11 and he's #10 (10-1 ml) .. post time is 6:23

post is unfortunate but I think there's not a lot of speed just inside of him so he might be able to get good position into the turn.. could see him putting in a good effort here

[batt33]

I know Mike pretty well. Real good guy AND trainer. That low percentage for firsters makes total sense. Not saying he can’t win but am saying that race 2 will be better as will race 3, etc.
Thats his program and that was mine. Pretty cool lady to knowto hear Mike has your horse. He’s in good hands.
GL.

Good to know! Yes reading some of the updates with Mike and the managers you already know! I find it interesting that they are taking this route with him(long on the turf in his first start) and never working on the turf.... but kinda excited also with this route ! things ya just go hmmmm

[batt33]

think there's potentially a lot of talented horses that will exit that race .. obviously difficult to win 1st out especially going two turns on the grass but will certainly be rooting for and would not be surprised with a good effort from yours .. I like #3 easy pick (9-2) and will probably post that in my thread tomorrow .. best of luck tomorrow batt

Thanks JBEX ! this is what the managers thought of the race and background history from Lukas to trombetta. On a side note Kinda cool to hear about what goes on... of course STR lived it!
https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/b...1966944622.mp4

[str]

Thanks JBEX ! this is what the managers thought of the race and background history from Lukas to trombetta. On a side note Kinda cool to hear about what goes on... of course STR lived it!
https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/b...1966944622.mp4

Typically when you’re gonna go long in your first start on the turf, one of the bigger keys is that you just don’t break, runoff, get tired, and finish poorly. Typically in a case like this, you want the horse to break and settle .

He can settle fourth or fifth because he broke great. He could settle seventh or eighth, because he broke in the pack or was wide or what have you. But to me, the key is to not get exhausted and finish up slowly. I would much prefer to see him laying ninth and wind up sixth then I would see him lay third and wind up last. The idea will be to build off this race for his second and then third start. So watch For the lead switching to be proper, the horse to be settled, if possible, and to finish if possible. If he can relax and begin to understand what is going on, that’s something to build on. Anything more than that is a bonus. Hope that makes sense.
The plan is to start his career and build from each effort. It is not to win first time out. If he does, awesome. But there is so much more to look for that can be positive and be built on and that is what you might want to look for.

[batt33]

Typically when you’re gonna go long in your first start on the turf, one of the bigger keys is that you just don’t break, runoff, get tired, and finish poorly. Typically in a case like this, you want the horse to break and settle .

He can settle fourth or fifth because he broke great. He could settle seventh or eighth, because he broke in the pack or was wide or what have you. But to me, the key is to not get exhausted and finish up slowly. I would much prefer to see him laying ninth and wind up sixth then I would see him lay third and wind up last. The idea will be to build off this race for his second and then third start. So watch For the lead switching to be proper, the horse to be settled, if possible, and to finish if possible. If he can relax and begin to understand what is going on, that’s something to build on. Anything more than that is a bonus. Hope that makes sense.
The plan is to start his career and build from each effort. It is not to win first time out. If he does, awesome. But there is so much more to look for that can be positive and be built on and that is what you might want to look for.

Ah the Guru! so much more to look at and think about ! I always appreciate the insight! Thanks STR!

[ProSportsEdge]

This is where I might be behind in the times. There is soooo much info out there today that did not exist 10 years ago that I do not want to tell you the wrong thing. To my knowledge DRF.com ( Daily Racing Form) is still the leader in info. But be aware that their is SO much for you to learn and so many variables involved that if you bet more than 2.00 dollars a race at this point , I would say you are crazy. Probably best served to watch as many races as possible and just start to get a feel for the game.
So, with that said, please do me 2 favors.
1st. READ THE CHARTS of the races you watch the next day and review what you think you saw.
2nd. Learn to watch replays of every race you witness. Both angles. Even if you do not know what you are watching yet, you will see things along the way and become a better handicapper for it.
Most handicappers are only as good as there routine. Make sure that yours is better than the guys you are playing against , namely all the other bettors out there.
Keep me posted.

That’s great advice honestly. It’s easy to get overwhelmed with all the info out there now. Starting small, reading charts, and watching replays is the smart way to really learn the game. Routine is everything.

[ProSportsEdge]

Typically when you’re gonna go long in your first start on the turf, one of the bigger keys is that you just don’t break, runoff, get tired, and finish poorly. Typically in a case like this, you want the horse to break and settle .

He can settle fourth or fifth because he broke great. He could settle seventh or eighth, because he broke in the pack or was wide or what have you. But to me, the key is to not get exhausted and finish up slowly. I would much prefer to see him laying ninth and wind up sixth then I would see him lay third and wind up last. The idea will be to build off this race for his second and then third start. So watch For the lead switching to be proper, the horse to be settled, if possible, and to finish if possible. If he can relax and begin to understand what is going on, that’s something to build on. Anything more than that is a bonus. Hope that makes sense.
The plan is to start his career and build from each effort. It is not to win first time out. If he does, awesome. But there is so much more to look for that can be positive and be built on and that is what you might want to look for.

That makes a lot of sense. It’s not always about winning first time out, it’s about how the horse runs and whether he settles and finishes the right way. I’d rather see him relax and close a bit than burn out up front. If he builds from this one, that’s a win in itself.

[batt33]

just got to laugh... gates open... and he was looking at his phone and checking his email......

[str]

just got to laugh... gates open... and he was looking at his phone and checking his email......

Honestly, I have no problem with the race at all. I saw enough to know that he will win. He got very tired. Makes sense. All that kickback from a wet track? Never happened to him before most likely. He was understandably confused and burned a ton of energy from the gate to the 5/8ths pole, finally took a breath, actually responded for about 6 jumps when asked but was clearly out of gas and leg weary at the 3/8ths pole area.
So what now? He needs to pick himself up, and he will, work a bit behind some horses and learn to split them or go by and finish up NOT out of air. Once he gets the hang of that, he will be ready to run back where he will improve. Of course Mike knows all of this.
He will be just fine, and now the expectations are low. Perfect time to get better. No pressure.

[batt33]

Honestly, I have no problem with the race at all. I saw enough to know that he will win. He got very tired. Makes sense. All that kickback from a wet track? Never happened to him before most likely. He was understandably confused and burned a ton of energy from the gate to the 5/8ths pole, finally took a breath, actually responded for about 6 jumps when asked but was clearly out of gas and leg weary at the 3/8ths pole area.
So what now? He needs to pick himself up, and he will, work a bit behind some horses and learn to split them or go by and finish up NOT out of air. Once he gets the hang of that, he will be ready to run back where he will improve. Of course Mike knows all of this.
He will be just fine, and now the expectations are low. Perfect time to get better. No pressure.

Thanks STR ! Always enjoy your critique !

[batt33]

Munny Problem has come back in mostly good order from yesterday’s debut, but the Trombetta barn notes that he appears a bit body sore today, which can often be a sign of tying up (an electrolyte imbalance that can cause muscle cramping and stiffness). It was on the warmer side yesterday, and that scenario—plus Munny Problem being asked to exert himself more than ever before—could certainly cause a horse to tie up.

Mike has ordered some blood tests to determine definitively whether or not Munny Problem did in fact tie up. It’s not a major concern moving forward, and is generally pretty manageable.

Otherwise, Mike shared our interpretation of the race and is still confident that Munny Problem has significant ability. He plans to work him from the gate again before a next start, and will also contemplate adding blinkers to help your colt stay more focused.

[str]

Munny Problem has come back in mostly good order from yesterday’s debut, but the Trombetta barn notes that he appears a bit body sore today, which can often be a sign of tying up (an electrolyte imbalance that can cause muscle cramping and stiffness). It was on the warmer side yesterday, and that scenario—plus Munny Problem being asked to exert himself more than ever before—could certainly cause a horse to tie up.

Mike has ordered some blood tests to determine definitively whether or not Munny Problem did in fact tie up. It’s not a major concern moving forward, and is generally pretty manageable.

Otherwise, Mike shared our interpretation of the race and is still confident that Munny Problem has significant ability. He plans to work him from the gate again before a next start, and will also contemplate adding blinkers to help your colt stay more focused.

Not surprised at all. He showed effort and try. That is what makes for body sore unless you get pounded or smashed in the race. (Think of you deciding to start jogging or doing sit ups for the 1st time in forever and how your body will likely feel on the morning of day 2.)

Tying up while not best defined this way, is more of a shock both mentally and physically to the horses system, typically caused by circumstances the horse did not expect. While it is rather rare that a horse does actually tie up from racing ( it is generally seen after a workout or extended gallop of some sort), the symptoms are similar. It's more often than not both physical but helped by the mental that occurred during the event. Kind of like cramping up but it can be deadly if not treated and the horse responds soon thereafter. Sounds like he did respond so no worries. Usually more severe in Females than males generally speaking.
Again, Mike knows exactly what he is doing. Smart move to figure it out, cover every angle and devise a plan to get him where he needs to be for his next start.
Mike will achieve that.

[JBEX]

soldier n diplomat (army mule) is a scheduled to run on sunday in the rebel stakes at oaklawn .. this race is the 2nd leg in their derby prep series .. it's R11 and he's #10 (10-1 ml) .. post time is 6:23

just a reminder cause I posted this 3 days ago.. I'm neutral on him this race and mainly rooting for him to do well because of the sire..not a lot of speed inside of him and think he should be able to secure a good position into the turn to overcome the post..also might be a little tighter 2nd off the layoff ..ultimately think he's more cut out to be a sprinter/miler type but would love to see a good performance today and a shot to move on to a final leg prep race

[batt33]

Not surprised at all. He showed effort and try. That is what makes for body sore unless you get pounded or smashed in the race. (Think of you deciding to start jogging or doing sit ups for the 1st time in forever and how your body will likely feel on the morning of day 2.)

Tying up while not best defined this way, is more of a shock both mentally and physically to the horses system, typically caused by circumstances the horse did not expect. While it is rather rare that a horse does actually tie up from racing ( it is generally seen after a workout or extended gallop of some sort), the symptoms are similar. It's more often than not both physical but helped by the mental that occurred during the event. Kind of like cramping up but it can be deadly if not treated and the horse responds soon thereafter. Sounds like he did respond so no worries. Usually more severe in Females than males generally speaking.
Again, Mike knows exactly what he is doing. Smart move to figure it out, cover every angle and devise a plan to get him where he needs to be for his next start.
Mike will achieve that.

Thanks again STR! as always I enjoy reading your thoughts!

[batt33]

just a reminder cause I posted this 3 days ago.. I'm neutral on him this race and mainly rooting for him to do well because of the sire..not a lot of speed inside of him and think he should be able to secure a good position into the turn to overcome the post..also might be a little tighter 2nd off the layoff ..ultimately think he's more cut out to be a sprinter/miler type but would love to see a good performance today and a shot to move on to a final leg prep race

I haven't looked at the race yet... But as you know I have his daddy in the sire bets!

[JBEX]

I haven't looked at the race yet... But as you know I have his daddy in the sire bets!

take a peek .. see what you think

hey you never know .. be nice to see him continue to what would probably be the arkansas derby

[batt33]

take a peek .. see what you think

hey you never know .. be nice to see him continue to what would probably be the arkansas derby

Second race off a lay off and Ortiz rides him back.... He has a chance! How many times do I look at a race when the favorite dominates other horses in the field in previous races and then they come back to win the next race...

[JBEX]

Second race off a lay off and Ortiz rides him back.... He has a chance! How many times do I look at a race when the favorite dominates other horses in the field in previous races and then they come back to win the next race...

his race was over right out of the gate..my feeling is he will be off the derby trail (even with the legit excuse) and won't head to a final prep..love to see him run in the listed stakes for 3yo at 7f on opening day at keeneland .. think that'd be a perfect spot and he might benefit for a race like that off the conditioning he got yesterday

[str]

his race was over right out of the gate..my feeling is he will be off the derby trail (even with the legit excuse) and won't head to a final prep..love to see him run in the listed stakes for 3yo at 7f on opening day at keeneland .. think that'd be a perfect spot and he might benefit for a race like that off the conditioning he got yesterday

As you know, every single step for 3 yr. olds is all about the Ky. Derby until the Derby runs. Then, the very next morning, owners and trainers sober up and start making more logical decisions for their horses. It's like a drug. Incredible !

For the vast majority of all horses, including the winners sometimes, getting the Derby in the rear view mirror is almost a blessing. I find it to be the craziest thing but it never changes.
You are most likely right JBEX.

[JBEX]

As you know, every single step for 3 yr. olds is all about the Ky. Derby until the Derby runs. Then, the very next morning, owners and trainers sober up and start making more logical decisions for their horses. It's like a drug. Incredible !

For the vast majority of all horses, including the winners sometimes, getting the Derby in the rear view mirror is almost a blessing. I find it to be the craziest thing but it never changes.
You are most likely right JBEX.

army mule speed and dam sire violence is speed so even on pedigree he's not meant to route let alone go 10f .. army mule as you know ran his final big race in the Carter at 7f and I think that's where this one will be best in extended one turn sprints..like to see him have a nice career and possibly be a sire down the road

[str]

army mule speed and dam sire violence is speed so even on pedigree he's not meant to route let alone go 10f .. army mule as you know ran his final big race in the Carter at 7f and I think that's where this one will be best in extended one turn sprints..like to see him have a nice career and possibly be a sire down the road

Totally agree JBEX. Hope your right.

Derby fever ruins or sets many more horses back than it has ever helped develop. Whatever happened to running against a few cupcakes to start the career so as to learn about all the things only a race can help teach. You cannot duplicate all that stuff in ther mornings, try as you might.

[JBEX]

Totally agree JBEX. Hope your right.

Derby fever ruins or sets many more horses back than it has ever helped develop. Whatever happened to running against a few cupcakes to start the career so as to learn about all the things only a race can help teach. You cannot duplicate all that stuff in ther mornings, try as you might.

yes he's had a few shots at it and imo (and yours) lt's time to move on .. I wouldn't be shocked if they ran him in a final prep but have a hunch they wont
.. looking down the road (if he's capable) wins or big efforts @ 7f to a mile in big races probably look good on a stallions resume ..realize it's a ways away from that but have to think it's in the back of the connections mind anyway

[JBEX]

just watched shadow dragon (army mule) gut out a win at aqueduct (honestly just came across it as the race went off) .. 1 1/8 miles on a muddy track ..runs in the alwance optional claimers and has to be up for sale now to qualify ..claimed in his prior race .. closing in on $500k career earnings and from army mule's 1st crop (so now a 6 year old)

we've discussed him multiple times befotre

[str]

just watched shadow dragon (army mule) gut out a win at aqueduct (honestly just came across it as the race went off) .. 1 1/8 miles on a muddy track ..runs in the alwance optional claimers and has to be up for sale now to qualify ..claimed in his prior race .. closing in on $500k career earnings and from army mule's 1st crop (so now a 6 year old)

we've discussed him multiple times befotre

Gutted out the win!

It's what makes them so intriguing. I always admired that in a horse.

[str]

I just read that Laurel has cancelled the races for later this week for lack of entries.

I’ve never seen that in Md. before I do not think.
If the trainers understood that they need to work in conjunction with the racing secretary instead of against her, this would never happen. I learned that in the late 70’s. But try and tell some of these trainers today and they look at you like you are on the racing secretary’s side. Well… there is only one side and it’s to race. Anything else is ridiculous to even address.
Hard heads create thin wallets.Unbelievable!

[batt33]

I just read that Laurel has cancelled the races for later this week for lack of entries.

I’ve never seen that in Md. before I do not think.
If the trainers understood that they need to work in conjunction with the racing secretary instead of against her, this would never happen. I learned that in the late 70’s. But try and tell some of these trainers today and they look at you like you are on the racing secretary’s side. Well… there is only one side and it’s to race. Anything else is ridiculous to even address.
Hard heads create thin wallets.Unbelievable!

I just read about it., Hopefully it's a one and done deal.

[str]

From what I have learned to understand in my trips back there in recent weeks to Laurel, is the trainers for the most part, (never always), do not understand that working WITH the racing office makes training easier. Why? Because you train a horse up to a specific race. Then, the race does not fill. Now what? Well, you scramble around and try and find another spot. Let's stop right there. You have your horse built up to peak. Sitting on go. And now you have to wait another week or ten days or even 2-3 weeks ? That is detrimental to being at PEAK.
This is not rocket science. You cannot keep a horse that exists on ebb and flow at PEAK, for an unlimited time. Pretty simple. It's routine, it's a schedule. Throw that schedule off and you have havoc, confusion, and a loss of focus. Heck, we see it when an NFL team gets thrown off it's schedule. At least you can explain to the players what is going on and often times they still cannot fully adjust. And how does that usually work out for all parties? Answer : Not Well at all.

Do be aware of this: IF the Kentucky Derby was cancelled 3-4 days before the race and run 10 days later, IMO, the chances of a different outcome would be about 95%. And I don't mean a slight change. It would be much more than that.

The winning trainer would tell everyone exactly how they did it. And every trainer that lost would look back and know exactly why their horse did not run as well as it could. They probably would not admit it. But they would know.
Except for whatever horse actually jumped up and ran better. That would most likely happen as well.
I just shake my head. Love the game. Love those people. But damn. Can somebody please stand up and handle this ?

[JBEX]

am not sure I understand the mechanics of this .. what are the trainers doing wrong .. they are getting their horse ready for an upcoming race and it doesn't fill .. obviously not arguing with you on this but wouldn't races not filling have to do with the horse volume at the track and appropriate types of races for what's there ? the condition book is written well in advance so doesn't the racing secretary
have to try and anticipate what types of races might fill ? I guess the other thing you are saying is they should run these short field races as it's not fair to the trainers not to .. it will generate less betting volume but that's a hit the track must take to do the right thing .. I hope I'm in the ballpark with at least some of the things I've said lol

[batt33]

Str, What is your take on the Article in the Blood horse Magazine on the cancellation?

[str]

I will answer these asap. A few things to explain here.

[str]

am not sure I understand the mechanics of this .. what are the trainers doing wrong .. they are getting their horse ready for an upcoming race and it doesn't fill .. obviously not arguing with you on this but wouldn't races not filling have to do with the horse volume at the track and appropriate types of races for what's there ? the condition book is written well in advance so doesn't the racing secretary
have to try and anticipate what types of races might fill ? I guess the other thing you are saying is they should run these short field races as it's not fair to the trainers not to .. it will generate less betting volume but that's a hit the track must take to do the right thing .. I hope I'm in the ballpark with at least some of the things I've said lol

Your in the ballpark JBEX. More so than some of the trainers comments at their meeting last week from what I heard.

The book is written a month plus before it starts. It is written based on what horses are stabled there. The secretary has a list of every horse on the grounds. Naturally, the majority of horses are claimers. The problem is, the horsemen are NOT talking to the Racing Sec.

That secretary and the horsemen have to work together, as one, and the horsemen can't seem to get this. THEY ACTUALLY NEVER HAVE.
If the horsemen would walk into the racing sec. office and speak directly to the racing secretary, they could go right down the line with their large stable and inform him or her where each horse was going to run and when. The secretary keeps a count of who is committed and just like that, they know before the 1st entry is made what is going on. This allows races to fill with expectation which is vital to getting a decent card put together. But when nobody communicates, then the race doesn't fill, the horsemen want to ship out for a race. This screws up both the racing sec. AND all the other trainers trying to get that race to fill. But the damn horsemen somehow think the racing sec. is being difficult when she gets upset when they ship out. Let's see. They use Laurel 's water, laurels track, Laurels real estate , electricity, waste management, etc. but ship to Phily. Park because their horse is sitting on a race. Then, they can't enter back because the van ride took too much out of the horse when the race comes back in the book in 11 days. It is a vicious cycle of stupid to cut right too it.

Trainers need races to fill when they enter. Otherwise, they are up against a multitude of things. Working as one cohesive unit makes more sense. They are a TEAM , like it or not. And both sides need to perform equally and work together.

Example: Next Friday I will be using the 1,3,4,7,9 sub 1 and sub 2 in the condition book. Seven total entries on the card. You get all the trainers to do that and the Secretary is in great shape and does not have to write extras because they already know these will fill. 9 out of 11 races offered fill and everybody is happy.

These were type of edges I took when I trained. Rarely a Stake horse for me. But my races filled. Maybe I was just lucky to have a best friend in the beginning of my career that was an asst. racing secretary at the time. We shared our thoughts after we went home for the day. Happy hour.. or two. LOL. I was in my early twenties. He went on the be the Director of Racing at Hollywood Park as well as Gulfstream Park. Bobby Umphrey. Still think about him . Miss him. You folks would have loved him. Man did we laugh. And we got it done. He filled them and I entered them. Like Peas and Carrots. He taught me a lot.

[str]

Str, What is your take on the Article in the Blood horse Magazine on the cancellation?

I will read this today for sure.

[JBEX]

Your in the ballpark JBEX. More so than some of the trainers comments at their meeting last week from what I heard.

The book is written a month plus before it starts. It is written based on what horses are stabled there. The secretary has a list of every horse on the grounds. Naturally, the majority of horses are claimers. The problem is, the horsemen are NOT talking to the Racing Sec.

That secretary and the horsemen have to work together, as one, and the horsemen can't seem to get this. THEY ACTUALLY NEVER HAVE.
If the horsemen would walk into the racing sec. office and speak directly to the racing secretary, they could go right down the line with their large stable and inform him or her where each horse was going to run and when. The secretary keeps a count of who is committed and just like that, they know before the 1st entry is made what is going on. This allows races to fill with expectation which is vital to getting a decent card put together. But when nobody communicates, then the race doesn't fill, the horsemen want to ship out for a race. This screws up both the racing sec. AND all the other trainers trying to get that race to fill. But the damn horsemen somehow think the racing sec. is being difficult when she gets upset when they ship out. Let's see. They use Laurel 's water, laurels track, Laurels real estate , electricity, waste management, etc. but ship to Phily. Park because their horse is sitting on a race. Then, they can't enter back because the van ride took too much out of the horse when the race comes back in the book in 11 days. It is a vicious cycle of stupid to cut right too it.

Trainers need races to fill when they enter. Otherwise, they are up against a multitude of things. Working as one cohesive unit makes more sense. They are a TEAM , like it or not. And both sides need to perform equally and work together.

Example: Next Friday I will be using the 1,3,4,7,9 sub 1 and sub 2 in the condition book. Seven total entries on the card. You get all the trainers to do that and the Secretary is in great shape and does not have to write extras because they already know these will fill. 9 out of 11 races offered fill and everybody is happy.

These were type of edges I took when I trained. Rarely a Stake horse for me. But my races filled. Maybe I was just lucky to have a best friend in the beginning of my career that was an asst. racing secretary at the time. We shared our thoughts after we went home for the day. Happy hour.. or two. LOL. I was in my early twenties. He went on the be the Director of Racing at Hollywood Park as well as Gulfstream Park. Bobby Umphrey. Still think about him . Miss him. You folks would have loved him. Man did we laugh. And we got it done. He filled them and I entered them. Like Peas and Carrots. He taught me a lot.

it's really amazing that there can't be better communication between the RS and trainers in regards to this ..seems like a small adjustment to make to ensure (or increase the chances) races fill which benefits everyone involved.... thanks str