Horse Racing questions and answers

[str]

by army mule..monday @ mahoning R7 #1 holidays army brat (8-1)..post @ 3:03

ohio bred stakes race for 3 year old fillies



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just noticed she's still a maiden.. a little aggresive but being it's vs statebreds and AM a kentucky sire not concerned with it

Let's start with this.
Still a maiden. Filly against the boys. She has worked 3/8ths, a 1/2, another 1/2, and a 5/8ths on a surface where she was the only horse to work 5/8ths that day. Then no works for 18 days. She is asked to run 3/4's from the 1 post today. Funny thing is, she will run hard all the way today and I won't be surprised if she isn't right there.
And while I would, and maybe should, bash the connections for this spot, I do understand that this is a very odd stake in that it is restricted to Ohio Bred horses that went through the Ohio Breeders sales ring. That kind of race can make owners a big name in the Ohio breeders community sometimes and as a result, you can and do see crazy stuff happen at the entry box when it comes to this race. This is most likely that.

The form screams that she is not as prepared to run well as she could be. The filly against the boys, well you know my thoughts on that. Fronts on for every start. Maybe she really needs them but....??

All in all, if she was by just about any other sire., she would be a bet against off all the things she has going against her.

But she is an Army Mule. She has never been off the board in her life. All she know is to try her guts out. She will today I'm sure. This is her 3rd start against the boys out of five races. In spite of all the hurdles she just keeps on going.

This last sentence in the race conditions makes breeders heads spin .

"Trophies presented by the OTBO to the winning Owner, Trainer, Jockey and Breeder".

Hey, it's not like I never got pressure from an owner to run in a race that I probably would not have. And a few of those won.

So while I do not like it at all.... I understand.

As always I appreciate the heads up. These AM horses are incredible.

[str]

While we are on the Army Mule subject and mismanagement of placement for some of these horses by their connections, it will be cool to watch the horse Army Gal that Linda Rice just won her 2nd race in two starts with. As you know, I constantly praise her for putting her horses in really good situations. That's what she does. And the theory of a horse improving by being successful is hopefully something we will witness together.
That said, she is quickly running out of spots without trying a Stake as 2 other than races for 3 year olds in March are hard to fill and may not even be written quite yet. Either way, she will be looking for what is best for the horse which is always a breath of fresh air.

[JBEX]

Let's start with this.
Still a maiden. Filly against the boys. She has worked 3/8ths, a 1/2, another 1/2, and a 5/8ths on a surface where she was the only horse to work 5/8ths that day. Then no works for 18 days. She is asked to run 3/4's from the 1 post today. Funny thing is, she will run hard all the way today and I won't be surprised if she isn't right there.
And while I would, and maybe should, bash the connections for this spot, I do understand that this is a very odd stake in that it is restricted to Ohio Bred horses that went through the Ohio Breeders sales ring. That kind of race can make owners a big name in the Ohio breeders community sometimes and as a result, you can and do see crazy stuff happen at the entry box when it comes to this race. This is most likely that.

The form screams that she is not as prepared to run well as she could be. The filly against the boys, well you know my thoughts on that. Fronts on for every start. Maybe she really needs them but....??

All in all, if she was by just about any other sire., she would be a bet against off all the things she has going against her.

But she is an Army Mule. She has never been off the board in her life. All she know is to try her guts out. She will today I'm sure. This is her 3rd start against the boys out of five races. In spite of all the hurdles she just keeps on going.

This last sentence in the race conditions makes breeders heads spin .

"Trophies presented by the OTBO to the winning Owner, Trainer, Jockey and Breeder".

Hey, it's not like I never got pressure from an owner to run in a race that I probably would not have. And a few of those won.

So while I do not like it at all.... I understand.

As always I appreciate the heads up. These AM horses are incredible.

so distracted by an army mule running vs ohio breds I didn't notice it was a filly..didn't stop them from smashing her at the windows in the first 2 starts including 1/5 in start 2..that 2nd start was at belterra Park which might be a notch below this track and thistledown ..possibly has something to do with the odds

I think the class of AM compensates and more for fillies vs boys in her 1st 2 starts as the typical ohio stallion is very inexpensive ..that early in the year for 2yos as you know str it's not unheard of to run against colts

thought the pace scenario was a little unfavorable last out as the eventual winner went by her before the 3/8th marker..the AM gained 3 lengths in the stretch and possibly because of the early move the winner was a bit tired at the end ..thought possibly the winner didn't switch leads till very late but not sure

could see her on the lead alone or pressed by (possibly stalking)
the 5 ..be interesting to see how this race develops ..I don't get 8-1 ml and think will be significantly lower

[JBEX]

did you notice #3 john fitzgerald by the sire kennedy..perfect name although you'd think someone would've done that sooner

[str]

so distracted by an army mule running vs ohio breds I didn't notice it was a filly..didn't stop them from smashing her at the windows in the first 2 starts including 1/5 in start 2..that 2nd start was at belterra Park which might be a notch below this track and thistledown ..possibly has something to do with the odds

I think the class of AM compensates and more for fillies vs boys in her 1st 2 starts as the typical ohio stallion is very inexpensive ..that early in the year for 2yos as you know str it's not unheard of to run against colts

thought the pace scenario was a little unfavorable last out as the eventual winner went by her before the 3/8th marker..the AM gained 3 lengths in the stretch and possibly because of the early move the winner was a bit tired at the end ..thought possibly the winner didn't switch leads till very late but not sure

could see her on the lead alone or pressed by (possibly stalking)
the 5 ..be interesting to see how this race develops ..I don't get 8-1 ml and think will be significantly lower

Probably right in the difference in stallions JBEX.

I did watch that race and yes, the Army Mule continued to run and finish but the horse in front hit a wall and was totally out of gas that last 70 yards. That is why the field made those lengths up late. The winner struggled galloping out after the race.
The in race pace did make it real tough on her IMO.
Agree that 8-1 is high. Probably a good bit less than that.

[str]

did you notice #3 john fitzgerald by the sire kennedy..perfect name although you'd think someone would've done that sooner

I missed that. Good catch. Great name !

[JBEX]

think there's any chance str that she could be taught to sit off the pace or is an established frontrunner by now ?
if the latter not sure there's much you could do to improve her ..she finished 4th by 8L for those who didn't watch..pressed on the lead and was passed around the quarter pole

[str]

think there's any chance str that she could be taught to sit off the pace or is an established frontrunner by now ?
if the latter not sure there's much you could do to improve her ..she finished 4th by 8L for those who didn't watch..pressed on the lead and was passed around the quarter pole

I will watch the replay tomorrow. Looks like SBR will be down 2 days but when it is back up, we will continue this conversation about her.

Without seeing it, I am assuming she was not fit enough from the weak work schedule and the 1 post probably made her go hard early.
The replay will let me see all that.
Hopefully she gains in fitness and can find a spot vs. fillies that is not too crazy.
I'll pick up there when we return.

Thanks JBEX.

[Easy-Rider 66]

I will watch the replay tomorrow. Looks like SBR will be down 2 days but when it is back up, we will continue this conversation about her.

Without seeing it, I am assuming she was not fit enough from the weak work schedule and the 1 post probably made her go hard early.
The replay will let me see all that.
Hopefully she gains in fitness and can find a spot vs. fillies that is not too crazy.
I'll pick up there when we return.

Thanks JBEX.

Hey STR based on what I read the site will be down Tues night into WED morn/afternoon. Just a heads up.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hi all,

Following up again to let you know we are on track for the forum upgrade to go ahead next week. We have targeted the evening of Tuesday, March 4th into the morning of Wednesday, March 5th to complete the migration. During this time, the forum and contests will be offline.

No action is required on your end. All post and message history will transfer over with the upgrade. I will touch base again here prior to launch to ensure everything is ready to go.

from SBR Andy

[JBEX]

I will watch the replay tomorrow. Looks like SBR will be down 2 days but when it is back up, we will continue this conversation about her.

Without seeing it, I am assuming she was not fit enough from the weak work schedule and the 1 post probably made her go hard early.
The replay will let me see all that.
Hopefully she gains in fitness and can find a spot vs. fillies that is not too crazy.
I'll pick up there when we return.

Thanks JBEX.

no problem str..sounds right what you are saying but definitely have a look when you can..no rush

I looked at the condition books and they have multiple levels of maiden claiming races if they need to go that path .. besides the in-betweens and succesfull ones interesting to follow some of them trying to find some success at the bottom levels

[batt33]

think there's any chance str that she could be taught to sit off the pace or is an established frontrunner by now ?
if the latter not sure there's much you could do to improve her ..she finished 4th by 8L for those who didn't watch..pressed on the lead and was passed around the quarter pole

Blinkers and hustled from the get go.... But that seems the way she has raced in all her starts....
Can she be taught to rate?


the one thing we dont see (unless we follow the horse closely) is how they are trained... case in point is "straight no chaser..." I've posted training video's and comments from Dan Blacker on how they are/were teaching him to relax behind horses as he has gotten older.( without being involved with the horse I would have never had the "inside" info)

Breeders cup sprint he actually sat behind horses and finished ! last race in Saudi Arabia he wasn't happy with the other horse having the lead... but Velaquez worked with him and he settled and finished well.


so I would say with a smart horse and a good trainer and competent jockey yes.

[JBEX]

Blinkers and hustled from the get go.... But that seems the way she has raced in all her starts....
Can she be taught to rate?


the one thing we dont see (unless we follow the horse closely) is how they are trained... case in point is "straight no chaser..." I've posted training video's and comments from Dan Blacker on how they are/were teaching him to relax behind horses as he has gotten older.( without being involved with the horse I would have never had the "inside" info)

Breeders cup sprint he actually sat behind horses and finished ! last race in Saudi Arabia he wasn't happy with the other horse having the lead... but Velaquez worked with him and he settled and finished well.


so I would say with a smart horse and a good trainer and competent jockey yes.

appreciate the feedback batt..will be interesting to see if she can change tactics otherwise probably will be dropping into maiden claimers

understand not every army mule
going to be a runner which I'll define as suceeding at some level of the game ..we'll see with this one

[str]

think there's any chance str that she could be taught to sit off the pace or is an established frontrunner by now ?
if the latter not sure there's much you could do to improve her ..she finished 4th by 8L for those who didn't watch..pressed on the lead and was passed around the quarter pole

no problem str..sounds right what you are saying but definitely have a look when you can..no rush

I looked at the condition books and they have multiple levels of maiden claiming races if they need to go that path .. besides the in-betweens and succesfull ones interesting to follow some of them trying to find some success at the bottom levels

Blinkers and hustled from the get go.... But that seems the way she has raced in all her starts....
Can she be taught to rate?


the one thing we dont see (unless we follow the horse closely) is how they are trained... case in point is "straight no chaser..." I've posted training video's and comments from Dan Blacker on how they are/were teaching him to relax behind horses as he has gotten older.( without being involved with the horse I would have never had the "inside" info)

Breeders cup sprint he actually sat behind horses and finished ! last race in Saudi Arabia he wasn't happy with the other horse having the lead... but Velaquez worked with him and he settled and finished well.


so I would say with a smart horse and a good trainer and competent jockey yes.

appreciate the feedback batt..will be interesting to see if she can change tactics otherwise probably will be dropping into maiden claimers

understand not every army mule
going to be a runner which I'll define as suceeding at some level of the game ..we'll see with this one

If ,you watch the replay, only look at the different hand placements of the riders near the lead. The 1 horse had slacked reigns and the hands were at least /1/2 - 3/4's way up the neck all the way around the track. Look at the other two riders near the lead. Their hands are much further down the neck towards their crotch. Their reigns were tighter and their horses awaiting instructions from the bit. What that is, is the 1 horse is being asked early and entirely while both outside horses are being reserved down the backside. At no point did the reigns of the 1 horse (Army Mule) get tightened and jocks hands slid back so as to try and relax, rate, or even give the horse a comfortable breather. Honestly, in my judgement, it was ridiculous.
Now I understand that if he had not pressed the issue with the 1 horse all the way, she most likely would have been headed or even passed by a 1/2 a length . So What! If the trainers orders were to do that, that rider was simply riding to instructions. If so, that is ALL on the trainer.
From purely an effort point of view I give the 1 horse an A+. I give whoever decided that that was the best way to try and win and teach the horse anything, I give an F. Riding her like that is detrimental to the horses best chance to be all she can be not only in that race, but long term as well. For me, it is hard to watch.

She ran as hard as she could. The two outside horses were fitter and better yesterday than she was, she ran out of air as they were turning for home, and she gallantly and gamely continued to fight all the way to the wire while out of breath.
Can she rate? Sure as long as they don't fry her brain before it is too late.
Being honest and I do hate to judge, I really do, but damn man, just give her a chance.
This horse is really cool. I admire her so much.

That is what I see.

[JBEX]

If ,you watch the replay, only look at the different hand placements of the riders near the lead. The 1 horse had slacked reigns and the hands were at least /1/2 - 3/4's way up the neck all the way around the track. Look at the other two riders near the lead. Their hands are much further down the neck towards their crotch. Their reigns were tighter and their horses awaiting instructions from the bit. What that is, is the 1 horse is being asked early and entirely while both outside horses are being reserved down the backside. At no point did the reigns of the 1 horse (Army Mule) get tightened and jocks hands slid back so as to try and relax, rate, or even give the horse a comfortable breather. Honestly, in my judgement, it was ridiculous.
Now I understand that if he had not pressed the issue with the 1 horse all the way, she most likely would have been headed or even passed by a 1/2 a length . So What! If the trainers orders were to do that, that rider was simply riding to instructions. If so, that is ALL on the trainer.
From purely an effort point of view I give the 1 horse an A+. I give whoever decided that that was the best way to try and win and teach the horse anything, I give an F. Riding her like that is detrimental to the horses best chance to be all she can be not only in that race, but long term as well. For me, it is hard to watch.

She ran as hard as she could. The two outside horses were fitter and better yesterday than she was, she ran out of air as they were turning for home, and she gallantly and gamely continued to fight all the way to the wire while out of breath.
Can she rate? Sure as long as they don't fry her brain before it is too late.
Being honest and I do hate to judge, I really do, but damn man, just give her a chance.
This horse is really cool. I admire her so much.

That is what I see.

see what you mean with the reigns..I wonder if thats comparable to torque ..hands further up towards the neck there'd be more force on bit vs the way the AM jock had his hands positioned ..maybe not a good example but throwing it out there just in case it is

even to me it made sense to try and use different tactics and not sure why it wouldn't to the connections ..at this point if they don't attempt to in her next start
would be a real head-scratcher

[JBEX]

have to think if an ohio bred with a ky sire has a good career would be an attractive broodmare prospect ..long ways away from that if it happens

[JBEX]

by army mule..weds gulfstream R9 #5 molly's a bullet (8-1)
@ 5:06


full sister to bel pensiero who missed by a nose last Sunday at the same distance and surface..making her 9th career start and still a maiden .. just don't want it confused that because I gave the pedigree info that she was a first time starter..feel she's priced about right (ml)




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[str]

by army mule..weds gulfstream R9 #5 molly's a bullet (8-1)
@ 5:06


full sister to bel pensiero who missed by a nose last Sunday at the same distance and surface..making her 9th career start and still a maiden .. just don't want it confused that because I gave the pedigree info that she was a first time starter..feel she's priced about right (ml)




.

It seems to me that some of these AM's that do not win within 4-5 starts are horses that are state breds and the trainers/owners do not want to drop down for class relief for fear of losing them in the claim box. I understand that but it makes it tough on the horse who is asked to improve through being well beaten.
Kind of a double edged sword if you ask me.

[str]

It seems to me that some of these AM's that do not win within 4-5 starts are horses that are state breds and the trainers/owners do not want to drop down for class relief for fear of losing them in the claim box. I understand that but it makes it tough on the horse who is asked to improve through being well beaten.
Kind of a double edged sword if you ask me.

From a betting perspective, if you did not play these state breds that are kind of trapped in this situation, I have to think the ROI with most of the others is decent. And because it seems that as many are 8, to 10-1 or higher, it would be interesting to see a win/place ROI on selective plays. I'm not much of a place, show bettor but that is up to the individual. And it seems we see quite a few that run 2nd at 30-1 or whatever. That might work. Certainly playing those that fit races well would seem to fit as well in that, it does not seem that then public is aware of this situation. IDK. Maybe they are but with a 10.00 win mutual on the Linda Rice 2nd time starter who won from the 1 post first out at Aqueduct the other day, that one was certainly overlooked. I was really surprised at that price.

[JBEX]

It seems to me that some of these AM's that do not win within 4-5 starts are horses that are state breds and the trainers/owners do not want to drop down for class relief for fear of losing them in the claim box. I understand that but it makes it tough on the horse who is asked to improve through being well beaten.
Kind of a double edged sword if you ask me.

guess when they use a ky sire like AM (in ohio) they want to give the horse every chance to be good enough to run in statebred stakes races especially for a young 3yo ..much more lucrative if successful..if it doesn't work out there's the low tag claiming races and if they do well at that level good chance they'll lose the horse to a claim anyway .. in general (everywhere) i think with army mule's running in sb programs (except ny) giving it more than avg chances to be good makes some sense..huge difference in earnings potential over the course of their career

I think he's a perfect sire to breed to for mid-atlantic track sb programs if they allow horses by out of state sires in sb races which I believe is at least mostly the case .. not too expensive but also not a $10k sire either plus we feel he's an overachiever at the $20k fee anyway




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[JBEX]

by army mule..weds gulfstream R9 #5 molly's a bullet (8-1)
@ 5:06


full sister to bel pensiero who missed by a nose last Sunday at the same distance and surface..making her 9th career start and still a maiden .. just don't want it confused that because I gave the pedigree info that she was a first time starter..feel she's priced about right (ml)




.

scratched

[str]

guess when they use a ky sire like AM (in ohio) they want to give the horse every chance to be good enough to run in statebred stakes races especially for a young 3yo ..much more lucrative if successful..if it doesn't work out there's the low tag claiming races and if they do well at that level good chance they'll lose the horse to a claim anyway .. in general (everywhere) i think with army mule's running in sb programs (except ny) giving it more than avg chances to be good makes some sense..huge difference in earnings potential over the course of their career

I think he's a perfect sire to breed to for mid-atlantic track sb programs if they allow horses by out of state sires in sb races which I believe is at least mostly the case .. not too expensive but also not a $10k sire either plus we feel he's an overachiever at the $20k fee anyway




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Yeah, I agree.

They call them whatever BRED, but it is really where they land when they are born, not conceived.

I wonder if anyone ever said the mare had the foal in the van while going to a certain state, they pulled over just before birth and happened to be right on the state line between NJ and N.Y.
That way they might be both. Lolol. Have to think some racetracker tried it.

[JBEX]

From a betting perspective, if you did not play these state breds that are kind of trapped in this situation, I have to think the ROI with most of the others is decent. And because it seems that as many are 8, to 10-1 or higher, it would be interesting to see a win/place ROI on selective plays. I'm not much of a place, show bettor but that is up to the individual. And it seems we see quite a few that run 2nd at 30-1 or whatever. That might work. Certainly playing those that fit races well would seem to fit as well in that, it does not seem that then public is aware of this situation. IDK. Maybe they are but with a 10.00 win mutual on the Linda Rice 2nd time starter who won from the 1 post first out at Aqueduct the other day, that one was certainly overlooked. I was really surprised at that price.

at big odds they are probably great horses to key in 3rd and 4th in verticals .. i've always been a big fan in general of that strategy .. WP figure there's a lot of potential to move forward when they're lightly raced and flash some talent or are stepping up aggressively ..imo want them a little bit camouflaged to get some value

[JBEX]

Yeah, I agree.

They call them whatever BRED, but it is really where they land when they are born, not conceived.

I wonder if anyone ever said the mare had the foal in the van while going to a certain state, they pulled over just before birth and happened to be right on the state line between NJ and N.Y.
That way they might be both. Lolol. Have to think some racetracker tried it.

that would certainly be the border to be at lol..ny is the best and I would think nj,md and pennsylvania are probably contenders for 2nd to 4th

[JBEX]

It seems to me that some of these AM's that do not win within 4-5 starts are horses that are state breds and the trainers/owners do not want to drop down for class relief for fear of losing them in the claim box. I understand that but it makes it tough on the horse who is asked to improve through being well beaten.
Kind of a double edged sword if you ask me.

at mahoning today they have 4 allowance races ..3 of them are open 3up n2 or 3L with purses around $26k ..the other for ohio bred "3YO only" fillies has a $40k+ purse..not a small difference and you get to avoid older horses and run vs statebreds

[Madison]

Askari TP R9

35K 50K CLM. Looks like rain.

[batt33]

35K 50K CLM. Looks like rain.

I remember the name.... Cant remember why lol...

[batt33]

I remember the name.... Cant remember why lol...

looked at my notes ... STR! Thanks !

[batt33]

[QUOTE=batt33;31405916]looked at my notes ... STR! Thanks ![/QUOTE

okay in my stable alerts I had "STR likes" for the life of me can't find the post that you mentioned it.

[batt33]

And Fyi "straight no chaser" looks no worse for the wear...... looks like the boss.... uhm because he is the bosshttps://x.com/AdolphsonRacing/status/1897131842060407020?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw% 7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1897131 842060407020%7Ctwgr%5E513b79b55dffa4b930 a291df29833cfb019937b4%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref _url=https%3A%2F%2Fmyracehorse.com%2Fapp %2Fhome

[batt33]

https://myracehorse.com/app/home

[JBEX]

https://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-2025-brown-using-tampa-derby-get-chancer-mcpatrick-rolling

chancer mcpatrick running in saturday's tampa bay derby..says in the article he had a tiny flake surgically removed from a front ankle after the bc juvenile .. said he also had a quarter crack on a hind foot..str do you think with the latter they mean it was something that happened during the race ?



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[str]

[QUOTE=batt33;31405919]

looked at my notes ... STR! Thanks ![/QUOTE

okay in my stable alerts I had "STR likes" for the life of me can't find the post that you mentioned it.

Not sure either. Do you mean "like" in the next race off it's last effort to run real well, or the baby that is the life of the party who is my favorite baby so far?
Black Tie Optional is the goof ball with a great personality. He makes me laugh. And THAT, is the kind of stuff you wish you could see in the mornings training. I'm laughing inside just thinking about it.

[JBEX]

by army mule..fairgrounds R7 #7 flick (10-1) @ 4:45

first time starter and trainer is bad at that..has a nice turf sprint pedigree (AM's run on grass and bottom also) but I think and sure str would agree the trainer info takes precedence .. considering that a good effort here would show a lot

[str]

by army mule..fairgrounds R7 #7 flick (10-1) @ 4:45

first time starter and trainer is bad at that..has a nice turf sprint pedigree (AM's run on grass and bottom also) but I think and sure str would agree the trainer info takes precedence .. considering that a good effort here would show a lot

Agree JBEX. The trainer stats usually should take precedent. In a perfect world, this horse breaks a bit tardy today, which goes to the preparation of a firster sometimes, shows hidden run, which I assume he has being by AM, and runs back next time in the same type of race, or lesser, which would be a gift as this does not look like a real tough event. When you watch for things, this is stuff that can really show up.
Am I surprised if he runs well today? No, they all seem to. But if what I mentioned happens, he could be a real decent play next out. Trainers win %'s probably increase a bit as a 2nd time starter, then 3rd. A horse to watch closely today IMO.
Thanks for the heads up. This one is worth following I think.