Horse Racing questions and answers

[JBEX]

hey str

wanted to see what you thought of DD's horse at lrl R9..#7 andras (12-1)@ 4:22.. some legit excuses ..post,distance and off track .. puts the 5lb bug on and maybe has the debut effort in him..at price thought interesting

[str]

hey str

wanted to see what you thought of DD's horse at lrl R9..#7 andras (12-1)@ 4:22.. some legit excuses ..post,distance and off track .. puts the 5lb bug on and maybe has the debut effort in him..at price thought interesting

Just looked. I see what you are saying. It is a guess that he will revert back to that 1st race he ran but what a mess this field is. Mike Trombetta probably gets bet way down in hopes of doing the same thing. That is a flashy work for Fair Hill.

I can't believe that Damon has 3 separate horses in here. The 7,8,9. They allow a trainer to run 3 in a race now?? Man, you can almost fill the race yourself. Lolol. Sure wish I could have run 3 in the same race. Wow.

[JBEX]

Just looked. I see what you are saying. It is a guess that he will revert back to that 1st race he ran but what a mess this field is. Mike Trombetta probably gets bet way down in hopes of doing the same thing. That is a flashy work for Fair Hill.

I can't believe that Damon has 3 separate horses in here. The 7,8,9. They allow a trainer to run 3 in a race now?? Man, you can almost fill the race yourself. Lolol. Sure wish I could have run 3 in the same race. Wow.

yes trom bet ta will be bet lol but a perfect horse to take a stand against imo..work is a little concerning as you said and also this is a cheap pedigree so the $15k price not a huge negative..agree no automatic mine's going to be able to run that debut type race after what he did in R2 ..like that he was able to stay close to the route pace in race 3 in th

3 seperate entries does seem like an infrequent occurrence .. guess it's a nice thing for a trainer when he's got a few horses who are about at the same level

.

[JBEX]

just noticed a liam's map won gulfstream R4 ..paid $15.80

[Jellymancan]

Super speed bias on the rail today in NY, str. One of those days you were talking about that could happen.

[JBEX]

saturday

by army mule..laurel R8 #8 blanches mule (30-1)
..listed stakes for 2yo @ 7f..same race by liam's map #6 yara's quest (8-1) @ 3:55

[str]

Super speed bias on the rail today in NY, str. One of those days you were talking about that could happen.

Nice catch Jelly !

Do keep an eye on the Dec. 31st and the 1st of January. Typically, the staff gets New Years day off except for a small crew. As a result, they will often be forced to grade the track a little more than typical on the 31st because there will not be the staff available to grade it on Jan. 1st. When this occurs, the 31st can be incredible and the first a little lesser of an advantage but still an advantage. But, if the 31st is even for instance, the 1st will most likely be a little outside on the 1ST.
The weather will dictate how much the track needs to be worked on the night of the 31st for the Jan. 1st card. The more it needs to be worked , the more dirt will slowly slide down towards the rail.
Hope that makes sense.

[str]

saturday

by army mule..laurel R8 #8 blanches mule (30-1)
..listed stakes for 2yo @ 7f..same race by liam's map #6 yara's quest (8-1) @ 3:55

OMG ! How on earth does an Army Mule firster run at Charlestown going 4 1/2 and pay 51.40 to win???

This deserves a " YOU CAN'T BE SERIOUS !
When I see stuff like this, I wish I paid more attention. Good Grief.

This one certainly steps into a hornets nest today which includes that Liam's Map.

Gary has a nice one in there as does Brittany ( never met her), who gets a ton of great stock sent to her these days. Henry Walters has a decent one as well. Nice guy. Very quiet . Always said hello, but never really knew him well. I knew his brothers John (funny as hell) and David, who I gave my remaining horses to up at Charlestown when I retired. David is as honest as the day is long. Real good guy JBEX.
Where is Jerry Robb with Studydoright? Mr. Heft, who the stake is named after, was Jerry's owner.
It's an old home week race for me. Lol.

[JBEX]

OMG ! How on earth does an Army Mule firster run at Charlestown going 4 1/2 and pay 51.40 to win???

This deserves a " YOU CAN'T BE SERIOUS !
When I see stuff like this, I wish I paid more attention. Good Grief.

This one certainly steps into a hornets nest today which includes that Liam's Map.

Gary has a nice one in there as does Brittany ( never met her), who gets a ton of great stock sent to her these days. Henry Walters has a decent one as well. Nice guy. Very quiet . Always said hello, but never really knew him well. I knew his brothers John (funny as hell) and David, who I gave my remaining horses to up at Charlestown when I retired. David is as honest as the day is long. Real good guy JBEX.
Where is Jerry Robb with Studydoright? Mr. Heft, who the stake is named after, was Jerry's owner.
It's an old home week race for me. Lol.

yeah pretty amazing with the army mule going off that factoring CT...shows he's still a bit under the radar bit..good fit though as he was a cheap purchase earlier this year so that was a level that makes sense..the liam's map cost a bunch and was very game in that race..trainer is excellent also..I'd take a shot with him at a price but the AM does seem in a little deep (hence 30-1 ml)would be really impressed if he just came in 3rd here ..have noticed a lot of these AM didn't cost a bunch at auction and many have won over $100k to a few hundred thousand dollars..one got up over $1M (danse macabre) the filly turf sprinter..probably a date with an expensive stallion in the future for her ..be interesting to see the 2yo's of 2026 and 27 who paid the higher fee to breed to their mares

nice connections to some of the trainers and family at laurel ..be an interesting race for you to watch



.

[Jellymancan]

Nice catch Jelly !

Do keep an eye on the Dec. 31st and the 1st of January. Typically, the staff gets New Years day off except for a small crew. As a result, they will often be forced to grade the track a little more than typical on the 31st because there will not be the staff available to grade it on Jan. 1st. When this occurs, the 31st can be incredible and the first a little lesser of an advantage but still an advantage. But, if the 31st is even for instance, the 1st will most likely be a little outside on the 1ST.
The weather will dictate how much the track needs to be worked on the night of the 31st for the Jan. 1st card. The more it needs to be worked , the more dirt will slowly slide down towards the rail.
Hope that makes sense.

Yes. Makes sense. When I get some time I’ll go back and watch each rest from yesterday in NY and key on the horses who ran well but against the track.

[str]

Yes. Makes sense. When I get some time I’ll go back and watch each rest from yesterday in NY and key on the horses who ran well but against the track.

The other thing to do is to note which horses did NOT run well when they maybe should have with no apparent excuse. Or flashed speed and stopped when they usually do not.
You will know that excuse, but others will not. THAT, is almost like having tomorrows paper with results today sometimes.

[JBEX]

by liam's map ..FG R8 #5 lost and found (8-1) @ 5:15..2yo first time starter ..sloppy track ..like him

[JBEX]

by liam's map ..FG R8 #5 lost and found (8-1) @ 5:15..2yo first time starter ..sloppy track ..like him

her

[str]

by liam's map ..FG R8 #5 lost and found (8-1) @ 5:15..2yo first time starter ..sloppy track ..like him

her

What a nice field of MSW's. And sloppy track. That helps according to the breeding. A Tapit mare. Love it.

A bunch of these should not mind the surface. The mud kickback will create some problems as most in all probability have never had to deal with wet kickback in the morning. So who runs through it?
Cool race and your pick has as much chance to deal with that surface as anyone it seems.

GL JBEX.

[JBEX]

What a nice field of MSW's. And sloppy track. That helps according to the breeding. A Tapit mare. Love it.

A bunch of these should not mind the surface. The mud kickback will create some problems as most in all probability have never had to deal with wet kickback in the morning. So who runs through it?
Cool race and your pick has as much chance to deal with that surface as anyone it seems.

GL JBEX.

thanks str

is a nice field..LM and AM progeny run well on off tracks (although it didn't help at laurel today) so at least on pedigree it shouldn't be a negative factor going in along with tapit on the bottom as you said..with the AM more (or all) he was overmatched in that race ..wouldn't be surprised at all if she's a good runner..either right away or with some seasoning

[str]

thanks str

is a nice field..LM and AM progeny run well on off tracks (although it didn't help at laurel today) so at least on pedigree it shouldn't be a negative factor going in along with tapit on the bottom as you said..with the AM more (or all) he was overmatched in that race ..wouldn't be surprised at all if she's a good runner..either right away or with some seasoning

Overmatched for sure. Really reaching far to win at C.T. and run back as a 2nd time starter at Laurel in a stake. Trainers do get carried away sometimes. The horse usually has to show them the error in their ways.

[JBEX]

Overmatched for sure. Really reaching far to win at C.T. and run back as a 2nd time starter at Laurel in a stake. Trainers do get carried away sometimes. The horse usually has to show them the error in their ways.

yeah I couldn't see him running in that spot..how about an allowance at CT or a reasonable priced claimer for 3yo (not too low) at laurel if available..seems more appropriate for where he ran in his debut

[JBEX]

What a nice field of MSW's. And sloppy track. That helps according to the breeding. A Tapit mare. Love it.

A bunch of these should not mind the surface. The mud kickback will create some problems as most in all probability have never had to deal with wet kickback in the morning. So who runs through it?
Cool race and your pick has as much chance to deal with that surface as anyone it seems.

GL JBEX.

she ran a big race..talented filly for sure

[JBEX]

active day for AM today

[JBEX]

active day for AM today

aqu R2

#2 ferris muler (10-1)
@ 12:39

oak R5

#3 war mule (9-2)
#9 battleoftheravine (6-1)

thematic names

@ 3:22



.

[JBEX]

active day for army mule progeny today

aqu R2

#2 ferris muler (10-1)
@ 12:39

oak R5

#3 war mule (9-2)
#9 battleoftheravine (6-1)

thematic names

@ 3:22



.

oaklawn race for arkansas breds..stickout sire in those type of races



.

[str]

aqu R2

#2 ferris muler (10-1)
@ 12:39

oak R5

#3 war mule (9-2)
#9 battleoftheravine (6-1)

thematic names

@ 3:22



.

Ferris Muler has made 33.5k going off 30-1 or higher and getting crushed in MSW races for NY Breds.

Unbelievable.

[JBEX]

Ferris Muler has made 33.5k going off 30-1 or higher and getting crushed in MSW races for NY Breds.

Unbelievable.

those 4 and 5th place finishes add up in big purse statebred races ..also the 2nd which accounted for about half of it and the 2nd today added about 50% to his overall earnings

[JBEX]

real gritty/dig in win at oaklawn .. that's what they do..nice patient ground saving ride from the jockey

other one in the race did nothing


.

[str]

those 4 and 5th place finishes add up in big purse statebred races ..also the 2nd which accounted for about half of it and the 2nd today added about 50% to his overall earnings

They sure do. I do realize that money today is not anything like it was. And it costs thousands more per month to carry a horse. It is just something I see from time to time that makes me shake my head.

[str]

real gritty/dig in win at oaklawn .. that's what they do..nice patient ground saving ride from the jockey

other one in the race did nothing


.

And that is why we love them so much. Nothing beats a horse that runs their guts out for you.
They make you feel like you owe them something in return. And, you do !

[JBEX]

by army mule..parx R9 #6 mission first (8-1) @ 3:41

2yo listed stakes at the tough 7f distance .. field very deep and could see him going off double digit odds




.

[JBEX]

michael pino has a 2yo debuter in parx R3 #6 harrigan (9-2) @ 12:59..realize as you've said from the dutrow school winning first out is not the main objective ..looks halfway decent and not the greatest field imo



.

[JBEX]

michael pino has a 2yo debuter in parx R3 #5 very bad guy (9-2) @ 12:59..realize as you've said from the dutrow school winning first out is not the main objective ..looks halfway decent and not the greatest field imo



.

going 7f like the stakes race above

[JBEX]

michael pino has a 2yo debuter in parx R3 #5 very bad guy (9-2) @ 12:59..realize as you've said from the dutrow school winning first out is not the main objective ..looks halfway decent and not the greatest field imo



.

oh man ..it's #6 harrigan (9-2)..sorry..very careless ..half hour to post

[JBEX]

oh man ..it's #6 harrigan (9-2)..sorry..very careless ..half hour to post

typically when I infrequently make this type of mistake I get the name right and mess up the number..both like today is unusual

[JBEX]

by army mule..parx R9 #6 mission first (8-1) @ 3:41

2yo listed stakes at the tough 7f distance .. field very deep and could see him going off double digit odds




.

scratched

[str]

Sorry I missed this JBEX.
As for the firsters from a typical Dutrow employee, they can win first out but when they do it is more the horse than the over training if that makes sense.
Some horses can get more fit than others and for those , they can win more so than the typical horse.Can’t see that in the form though unless the site throws FTS winners with ease. 7/8ths only makes it tougher first out because for the most part we just don’t breeze then 3/4’s or 7/8ths. I know I never did for a firster. Dickie didn’t either.

[JBEX]

Sorry I missed this JBEX.
As for the firsters from a typical Dutrow employee, they can win first out but when they do it is more the horse than the over training if that makes sense.
Some horses can get more fit than others and for those , they can win more so than the typical horse.Can’t see that in the form though unless the site throws FTS winners with ease. 7/8ths only makes it tougher first out because for the most part we just don’t breeze then 3/4’s or 7/8ths. I know I never did for a firster. Dickie didn’t either.

with the sire/dam-sire combo definitely bred for distance and to love mud..7f and starting a little later in the 2yo season makes sense..an impressive win but talk about running in a bog ..geez 1:28 lol

so unless he's just a lot better in mud this could be a really nice horse .. maybe wind up at gulfstream if pino runs there ..will keep an eye out for him




.

[str]

Sorry I missed this JBEX.
As for the firsters from a typical Dutrow employee, they can win first out but when they do it is more the horse than the over training if that makes sense.
Some horses can get more fit than others and for those , they can win more so than the typical horse.Can’t see that in the form though unless the site throws FTS winners with ease. 7/8ths only makes it tougher first out because for the most part we just don’t breeze then 3/4’s or 7/8ths. I know I never did for a firster. Dickie didn’t either.

michael pino has a 2yo debuter in parx R3 #6 harrigan (9-2) @ 12:59..realize as you've said from the dutrow school winning first out is not the main objective ..looks halfway decent and not the greatest field imo



.

with the sire/dam-sire combo definitely bred for distance and to love mud..7f and starting a little later in the 2yo season makes sense..an impressive win but talk about running in a bog ..geez 1:28 lol

so unless he's just a lot better in mud this could be a really nice horse .. maybe wind up at gulfstream if pino runs there ..will keep an eye out for him




.

Again, sorry I missed this. A couple of things:

IMO the field was pretty weak on paper. All except Mikes horse. As you know, very well bred, and ironically bred to love mud as well, but I doubt that had much to do with it. With that long a work tab, Mike was working this horse with long on his mind the entire time. Why? Because when you see all those 1/2 mile works after a solid 5/8ths work, those are the portion of the exercise that went fast enough to be timed. My guess is he was actually working 7/8ths or a mile but NOT fast off the pole. A two minute clip for 3/8ths and a finish up in what he was timed at. When you see a 5/8ths and it is followed by a 1/2 mile and then a race, that makes sense. It's like a wake up call 1/2 mile for the horse to get them on their toes and sharp for next week. But when you see three of those after a nice 5/8ths work, they are much more than that. A sharp quick work, 4-5-6 days before is a sharpener. Those slower 1/2 mile works are the tail end of longer exercises that are building lung capacity, strength, and of course, where and when to expect to pick things up.

The 1:28 is probably a decent time over that winterized track especially for a two year old firster. That deep a track, which is to be expected this time of year for added cushion to fight freezing temps, is demanding but he has trained over it so he was that much fitter.

I don't know if Mike goes down south or not. An option is to simply take his time into January and maybe find a race in February going that distance or a mile ( or 1 1/16th), and by the 3rd race it is late March and he has beaten winter, has a fresh horse and is ready to put together a 3 year old year.
Do keep an eye out for him. It will be fun to watch Mike handle this one in the next few races.

Shame I has away and didn't see this in time yesterday. I could have explained a lot of this beforehand but whatever. at least you can see what all Mike was doing and kind of read between the lines.

Thanks JBEX. Nice call !