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This is an interesting race JBEX. All these AM's run, albeit as a firster or shortly thereafter. That trainer wins a lot 2nd and 3rd start with babies if I am not mistaken. Not that they cannot win 1st out, especially an Army Mule.
Going through the race, I always look for a horse to catch my eye. Doesn't always happen but I did see another one in here. Not the obvious inside horse but the 4 horse. Green as grass 1st start. Most likely will be overlooked in here. Ran that Z pattern type race as a firster. Only lost 2nd by about 4 lengths and without seeing the replay, Was most likely hesitant throughout. Rider stay's on, which means he trusts the horse , which means a lot with green firsters and had a nice gate work since. You don't see gate work that often just after a horses 1st start.
So maybe a 1.00 triple box ( or whatever the budget would call for), with the 1,4,8. Crazy I know, but not expensive for a nice possible return if the 4 or 8 beats the 1.
Thanks JBEX.Comment -
np str
I agree with #4 as the other besides the favorite ..I like the passing horses/falling back lengths behind running line vs better company..think that's what you consider a z pattern..think he got some worthwhile experience and fitness from that and could easily improve..irad just inside of him will take a lot of money also
..think the army mule who ran in that churchill msw yesterday (with a good break) would be tough in this field though wouldn't be eligible being a ky bredComment -
no good on the AM ..close to the 4f mark and stopped badlyComment -
AM tomorrow (friday) .. CD R1 #6 vegas blackjack (6-1) @ 1pm..it's a msw restricted for 3 up
debut ,3yo gelding ..like this one ..trainer,jock,pedigree and works..definitely give him a shot
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[COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Caldera Breeze Report
[/COLOR]
Caldera breezed a strong solo five furlongs this morning in 1:00 flat (3/20). The barn was very pleased with the move, and caught him in internal splits of :23 2/5 and :35 2/5 and out six furlongs in 1:15.
As long as he exits this work in good order, we expect to enter on Monday for next Saturday’s one-mile maiden special weight at Oaklawn Park.
We may get some added insight on Saturday when the workmate from his prior breeze, American Promise, seeks his own diploma in the 12th race at Churchill (he’ll be the #6; post time is 6:18 p.m. ET).
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wisconsin gal (5-1) (AM) is running at cd R6 (3:21) on saturday ..it's a listed stakes at 6.5f..we've followed this one for her last few starts strLast edited by JBEX; 11-30-24, 06:42 AM.Comment -
I think "most of the time" when I mention that an army mule progeny is running not going to do any capping on the horse .. want to catch those occasional surprises when the horse's pp's look below avg or bad and the horse surprises at good odds .. ml as a guide post is enough for me .. going over a trip is a different story and I'm not referring to that aspect of itComment -
to me just off what AP did in his last race w/o winning, it's a tip-of-cap that he stayed with him regardless of the result today
two other points ,only because I looked at the race lol
#9 burnham square (15-1) ..a liam's map who just missed at 30-1 in his debut..stepping up from high maiden claimers
#5 multiverse (15-1)
expensive horse and did enough in his debut
(but not obvious) that he could improve at good odds
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So many of these well bred babies have so much potential upside that they can really improve overnight. I was never around this many high end young horses with so much upside. It is amazing too me.
JBEX mentioned two that certainly both turn it around quickly. So can the 1 horse if running inside works out well for that guy. Amazing talent in these races.
Good luck next Saturday Batt.Comment -
Thanks STR ! I thought 5 horses had a legitimate shot at winning.... with the scratch of the 2 and 3 ... 6 looks a little better and with a couple of nice workouts since his last race...one being with Caldera 11/12 ... lets see what happens!
And to add..... when I had a bigger piece of horses.... I never ever was involved in " high end horses"
mid grade.... okay lol....
With that being said...... It's fun to just be involved with some nice horses
Last edited by batt33; 11-30-24, 04:40 PM.Comment -
I am sure that it is a blast being involved in horses like these. The breeding across the board is incredible. This horse ran fine yesterday. Fourth but prominent throughout and can win in here in the next couple of starts it seems.Thanks STR ! I thought 5 horses had a legitimate shot at winning.... with the scratch of the 2 and 3 ... 6 looks a little better and with a couple of nice workouts since his last race...one being with Caldera 11/12 ... lets see what happens!
And to add..... when I had a bigger piece of horses.... I never ever was involved in " high end horses"
mid grade.... okay lol....
With that being said...... It's fun to just be involved with some nice horses
Real glad you are getting to enjoy this level of talent. It's a different game for sure. It's kind of like playing cards. Five card draw or seven card stud, it's all cards. Just different avenues to get to the winners circle. But as you know, when you win a race, the price, purse, etc. really doesn't matter. It is the job, the victory, the winning, the having a solid game plan and seeing it executed. All the moving parts working in conjunction with one another. That is what it is all about and what makes winning so sweet, at any level.
I know that you know this. It's important that anyone that appreciates horse racing understands it as well. It is such a hard game to win. When you do, it's unbelievable.Comment -
hey str
since it was just sire futures weekend have a question regarding the two whose progeny we follow
army mule $20k
liam's map $40k
do you think if the quality of the broodmares that are bred to them was that of stallions double their fee that they "might" produce a crop worthy of the higher fee ?
that's really what we think there'd be a good chance of happening if we like the progeny they get at their current fee ..would you agree ?Comment -
I guess you never know for sure but it would make perfect sense that if either of those two got mares that are going to Gun Runner, Into Mischief, etc., etc. they would have better chances of throwing better horses than they already do.
So sure, I would definitely agree with that.Comment -
I remember you did talk about that.
Exactly ! At the end of the day, the money is great but it's not about that. It's about the other stuff.Comment -
Speaking of breeding.....
It was announced Sunday evening that Goodnight Olive (Ghostzapper), champion female sprinter of both 2022 and 2023 and the $6-million co-topper at last year's Night of the Stars sale, will be bred to Seize the Grey this upcoming season. This is a very nice addition to Seize the Grey's first book of mares, and not the type of name you often see heading to a stallion standing for $30K.[COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Goodnight Olive Booked to STG[/COLOR]
Click here to read more, including comments from Goodnight Olive's owner John Stewart.
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an elite stallion quality mare is nice to get ..hopefully she produces something really good batt..I was thinking that being a son of arrogate is a good thing also as he was so short-lived and a brilliant performer..did very well I believe from a limited sample with his progenyComment -
Kinda cool at this is another aspect of horse racing that I never thought I would be a part of. As I mentioned earlier I can't wait to follow his offspring!
Yes Arrogate actually had some really great offspring from just 3 crops... including a Kentucky oaks winner, a Belmont winner, and of course the Preakness winner among other winners.
As the article stated they want to keep the Arrogate lineage going, Hopefully STG lives up to it!Comment -
That's a nice boost for Seize The Grey. I read the article as to the owners explanation. Probably worth a try. I also could not help but read some of the comments. Some are good, some not so much. All in all, not bad I guess. Although I was hoping to see a comment when the headline said she will "visit" STG that someone did not like that so much. In todays world it probably should have said, go see STG to have a couple of water buckets and maybe split a hay rack and see where it goes.Comment -
In yesterday’s 5 th race at Parx, Paco Lopez rode the winner of the 5th race. The horse is a 2 year old Maiden special weight going long. If you watch the replay the horse looses interest as he is easily drawing away from the field as they turn for home. When the horse looses interest he starts pulling up and going to the outside. I would bet a lot of money that he galloped in company and pulled up just past the wire everyday for months and my guess is recently he either stopped galloping in company, which can be somewhat typical once the horse starts running races. I assume the horse has run a couple times but did not see the form. Anyway, if this is the case all this would make a lot of sense. I saw it all the time when I was there.
so assuming he did start galloping by himself but even if not, if he was used to galloping past the wire daily and now that it is colder outside especially in the morning, the rider might choose to start pulling up a little earlier than usual because it is a long jog home on the outside fence if you go past the wire to start to pull up but a lot quicker if you start pulling up at the 3/16ths or 1/8th pole. And… it’s cold .
So the horse, if I am right and I’d bet on it, over thinks it and starts taking himself to the outside fence to pull up . Paco starts hitting him on his neck that is a complete waste of time as the horse is now thinking and Paco is not in charge.
The horse still wins but it’s ugly and when finally pulling up about an 1/8 of a mile later, Paco losses his cool and hits the horse hard on the neck when the horse is no longer galloping out.
The outrider then steps in and gets him back home. Next day, he is suspended and probably gets the rest of the year off. So stupid! A bad temper within a really good rider.
A couple of things. The horse was wearing 3/4 blinkers which are very common. He ran in the mildest bit trainers use meaning he must not have shown any signs of this previously.
It will be an easy fix unless the horse latches onto this habit and hopefully it doesn’t happen again. But like I said, this horse just did not do this from out of nowhere.
I doubt you will get the real reason it happened but plenty of people already know.
The trainer Durarte seems to win often I think and probably has a barn full of horses. He only made matters worse when asked about what happened. He defended the rider and might not have seen the problem after the race. But a little diplomacy would have gone a long way there. Gotta be better than that . This isn’t the 70’s anymore and fans get upset and rightly so. I remember it happening too me back then and I was so pissed I could hardly breath. I was upset for the horse. But OMG I was mad at the rider.
We will see what happens. A quick note. This horse could have and should have won by at least 10 length’s yesterday. He won by one length. When he runs back he should be a tough out. Maybe keep an eye on that. He is a lot better than this race will show on the form.
To watch the replay go to http://www.parxracing.com/ Tuesday 5th race.Last edited by str; 12-04-24, 04:33 PM.Comment -
Paco is reckless and has a past history. He might be talented but I don’t like or respect him. I think he should get a hefty suspension or more for his despicable act. Another black eye on the sport.Comment -
As you know from your time with horses Batt, they are creatures of habit . Remember that video of your green baby walking around the shed and when the rider had relaxed and the horse was allowed to think, which is not a good thing with a rider on it's back, that it started to move towards going into it's stall or shed, I don't recall which, because it was what it normally did? The rider had to correct the horse to keep walking past? This was very similar to that in all probability. There was only one reason the horse did that and it is because it had DONE that to a similar extent recently.
Also, the rider had that horse so asleep on the front end, and sure, that is what you want to do usually when easily drawing away from the field. But this is a green baby. And Paco probably did not remember that at the time. He probably did not stay in the moment of, "this is a baby so let's get him home the right way". And I can understand that lapse in judgement to an extent. But a small extent. I mean by that, he is a damn PRO. ACT LIKE ONE !
Note that the reigns were slacked exactly like they were on your baby walking in the shed that thought it was time to go into the stall.
I was taught by my mentor as well as many jockey's of which several are HOF riders, that you must keep in mind the horse you are on. You are there to do two things with a young inexperienced horse. Try and win and try and teach. Make the horse better. This isn't about you, it's about the team. Everyone employee that works everyday for this horse, that trainer, that owner. Respect your fortunate position and ride for a purpose. To win, teach and learn. He did ride to win as it takes a lot of balls to keep riding when your horse is on the outside fence and you do not know what the hell he is going to do next. Like maybe make the winners circle gap or cut into the paddock, or wheel, ,prop or who knows what. That took guts. Paco could have been injured, maimed or killed. I'll give that to him. But what he did after the race when finally stopped was display a lost temper, anger, and a lack of professionalism. That was totally unacceptable.
I might suggest anger management for starters. Then, remind him of who he was on HIS first day at the track. Find out what has changed since then. This guy has had multiple chances and monetary or penalties like days have not seemed to work so far. More of then same will most likely be just that. Help him try and understand what he was and what he has become. Give him a chance to understand the whole picture of his career. And if that resonates, great. If not, well IMO, he should not ride until it does.
I hope this is not something that is done to appease the fan base like a window dressing of some sort. This needs to be for Paco. Help him all you can but until the light bulb comes on, if it ever does in his head, but until that time, keep him on the ground. Time to wake up or walk IMO .Comment
My best win ever was when I took dad to watch a lower level horse race at Bay Meadows ( owned a small share) and got our pic taken! ( talked about it a while back on this thread) .
