Horse Racing questions and answers

[str]

I just saw where a trainer named Johnathan Wong who trains in Northern California got a two year suspension for Metformin. It probably would have been much less severe but the arbitrator found that Mr. Wong was untruthful when asked questions about the incident.
His ban started Monday and he ran a horse on Wednesday in Louisiana because apparently Louisiana and West Virginia are still arguing in court against HISA being in affect.

So, when you get ruled off everywhere else, just go to Louisiana or W. Va. and have at it.

I am blown away at the level of disfunction that IS horse racing today.

Very sad to see it but I am not at all surprised. Individual track ownership with no governing body will be and already has been the slow ruination of the game.

Horsemen could combine forces and fix this. So could fans who bet and support racing. But neither group can agree on when to meet to discuss this much less all be on the same page.

What a shame.

[Jellymancan]

I just saw where a trainer named Johnathan Wong who trains in Northern California got a two year suspension for Metformin. It probably would have been much less severe but the arbitrator found that Mr. Wong was untruthful when asked questions about the incident.
His ban started Monday and he ran a horse on Wednesday in Louisiana because apparently Louisiana and West Virginia are still arguing in court against HISA being in affect.

So, when you get ruled off everywhere else, just go to Louisiana or W. Va. and have at it.

I am blown away at the level of disfunction that IS horse racing today.

Very sad to see it but I am not at all surprised. Individual track ownership with no governing body will be and already has been the slow ruination of the game.

Horsemen could combine forces and fix this. So could fans who bet and support racing. But neither group can agree on when to meet to discuss this much less all be on the same page.

What a shame.

This! 100% I always thought Wong might be suspect.

Also, another younger guy Blacker just got suspended out there as well. Sad but doesn’t surprise me. Sport needs a governing body and national commish with common rules/protocols amongst all tracks. But no let’s keep doing what we’re doing…its not working.

[JBEX]

guess they must be desperate for bigger fields .. why else would you let trainers who committed drug violations run at your track

[str]

guess they must be desperate for bigger fields .. why else would you let trainers who committed drug violations run at your track

Yep. More horses typically increase handle so yeah, let's welcome the convicted and sentenced trainer to run his horses here with us.


And when the management is asked that question they will most probably tell you how much they "love" the horses and fans.

I get it. Self preservation. Every man for themselves.

In the long run though, that is typically a slow death.

[str]

But... on a much lighter note, has anyone seen the DRF front page and seen this?


Withers winner Uncle Heavy stuck on farm due to herpesvirus quarantine

Lol. Uncle Heavy is Mark Reid. If you have read this column for a while, I have spoken about Mark several times and referred to him as Heavy Reid.

Mark came up under the Richard Dutrow tree back in the 70's. He was the groom next to me at Pimlico and we go way back. Mark was a very highly successful as a trainer in Pennsylvania at what was then Keystone among other places.

His nickname at the barn was "Heavy". He wasn't fat. He was huge. A gentle giant . A decorated wrestler in college, Mark was and still is a class act and a great guy.

Looks like the nickname stuck for the last 50 years.

I didn't know that but it made my day when I saw the horses name and made the connection.

That's awesome !

[JBEX]

But... on a much lighter note, has anyone seen the DRF front page and seen this?


Withers winner Uncle Heavy stuck on farm due to herpesvirus quarantine

Lol. Uncle Heavy is Mark Reid. If you have read this column for a while, I have spoken about Mark several times and referred to him as Heavy Reid.

Mark came up under the Richard Dutrow tree back in the 70's. He was the groom next to me at Pimlico and we go way back. Mark was a very highly successful as a trainer in Pennsylvania at what was then Keystone among other places.

His nickname at the barn was "Heavy". He wasn't fat. He was huge. A gentle giant . A decorated wrestler in college, Mark was and still is a class act and a great guy.

Looks like the nickname stuck for the last 50 years.

I didn't know that but it made my day when I saw the horses name and made the connection.

That's awesome !

remember mark's name in the form when simulcasting began to happen (believe early 90's)..always seemed to have excellent numbers from what I recall


.

[The_Mr-B_]

Heerre comes rusty...

[str]

Heerre comes rusty...

Isn't that a dog track thing?

I don't know anything about that but our man Madison who reads here does. Don't know when he might see this though. He's probably still counting his money from the Super bowl 2-5 square hit. Lol. Just kidding Madison, real happy for you.

[str]

remember mark's name in the form when simulcasting began to happen (believe early 90's)..always seemed to have excellent numbers from what I recall


.

Mark tore them up at Keystone for years. He was the king there back then.

[Oulalapasbien]

Hi str,
sorry if it's off-topic but I just would like to know what was your opinion on that day where Betfair decided to cancel all bets due to a sort of "bug" in their system :

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2012/mar/24/betfair-punters-voler-la-vedette

I mean, did you know any guy, friend who was directly involved in that case ?
I should have won 10k that day but they void all bets. Also i would like to know if you're a bettor on exchanges or on other platforms.
Thanks again

[JBEX]

since we went back n'forth in pigpens thread figured I'd put up a link

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/horse-racing-betting/3736176-future-pool-4-a.html#post31282554

[str]

Hi str,
sorry if it's off-topic but I just would like to know what was your opinion on that day where Betfair decided to cancel all bets due to a sort of "bug" in their system :

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2012/mar/24/betfair-punters-voler-la-vedette

I mean, did you know any guy, friend who was directly involved in that case ?
I should have won 10k that day but they void all bets. Also i would like to know if you're a bettor on exchanges or on other platforms.
Thanks again

I read your link. I did not know of anyone that was affected by this at all.

As for the last question, no, I do not currently bet on any exchanges and play only sparingly in the U.S. pools. I'm a casual fan of the game these days but still somewhat follow my friends who are training or riding.

When and if I retire, I will become more active I suppose and I have to say that the foreign market that would let you bet " in race", would be something I would love to get a hold of.

As for that particular race, I can see why Betfair cancelled those plays for that race. 28-1 near or at the finish line and in front and seemingly drawing off was an unfair advantage to say the least. It every gamblers dream to play into that. So yes, I agree with them in this situation.

However, if there was a way to honor all bets made up to a certain part of the race, well before the outcome was inevitable, I would side with doing that. I just don't know if that actually exists. It certainly sucks for you if your play was legit and you lose because of bets that were made when it became an unfair advantage. Hard to believe they could not differentiate between bet placements to accurately stop honoring tickets at a specific time line but I just do not know enough about it to speculate with that.

Hope that helps and thank you for posting a question. Hope to hear from you in the future sir.

All the best,

str

[Madison]

Isn't that a dog track thing?

I don't know anything about that but our man Madison who reads here does. Don't know when he might see this though. He's probably still counting his money from the Super bowl 2-5 square hit. Lol. Just kidding Madison, real happy for you.

Spot on!! One of my buddies said "You've used up all your luck for the rest of the year". LOL

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: have you watched any races from Laurel Park recently? They have a new information deal where they have a live prediction on who will win the race. With changing percentages. Interesting feature.

[JBEX]

going to take a crack at what kingsbarns next 2 starts might be factoring he'll only go to the 2nd with a solid performance in the first ..looked at nyra and keeneland stakes schedule

3/9 .. grade 3 @ 1/16 on tampa bay derby undercard (mentioned in here a couple of weeks ago)


4/20 .. grade 3 kee @ 1 3/16


thinking 6 weeks is good spacing 2nd off the long layoff and would be nice to win at kee..gets to run in another grade 3 vs taking a step up in class right away ..also the same extended distance he won the louisiana derby at..with his running style of being close up or on the front kee is a good fit

[jamesrav]

I read your link. I did not know of anyone that was affected by this at all.
When and if I retire, I will become more active I suppose and I have to say that the foreign market that would let you bet " in race", would be something I would love to get a hold of.
str

The in-race betting that Betfair (and Orbit and others) offers might sound intriguing but it has a big problem: those offering the bets seem to think that 1 second out of the gate every horse is going to win the race. The overround figure immediately goes from 101% to 170%. It's very rare to find situations where a favorite goes above the last offer before the race starts. The only exception is when a favorite is 4th or 5th about 30 seconds into a race - in that case there seems to be some allowance for an increase in the offered payout. It's rare. I did have two 'last to first' winners (favorites) that I probably would have voided the bet for if I could have lol. Plus the liquidity for in-race can be very small on Betfair (literally $10), whereas Orbit does seem capable of matching larger bets.

[str]

Hey STR: have you watched any races from Laurel Park recently? They have a new information deal where they have a live prediction on who will win the race. With changing percentages. Interesting feature.

I had not seen that EZ. Thanks for the heads up. I will make it a point to watch and see what it's all about.

[Easy-Rider 66]

I had not seen that EZ. Thanks for the heads up. I will make it a point to watch and see what it's all about.

OK STR good deal. Yeah hit me back when you see it. thx.

[str]

going to take a crack at what kingsbarns next 2 starts might be factoring he'll only go to the 2nd with a solid performance in the first ..looked at nyra and keeneland stakes schedule

3/9 .. grade 3 @ 1/16 on tampa bay derby undercard (mentioned in here a couple of weeks ago)


4/20 .. grade 3 kee @ 1 3/16


thinking 6 weeks is good spacing 2nd off the long layoff and would be nice to win at kee..gets to run in another grade 3 vs taking a step up in class right away ..also the same extended distance he won the louisiana derby at..with his running style of being close up or on the front kee is a good fit

Without looking at condition books as you have, this seems like it would fit. I guess I am being very careful because of my concern of the speed/ relax problem by saying that a one turn mile would be perfect if that even exists as a starting point. I am confident he would relax early in that. Just not sure about seeing that 1st turn coming up right away. I know I am treating this horse in my mind as a big baby. Just feel he has plenty to offer if he has the right mindset.
The next work will be telling. If he works 3/4's he is set up for what you spoke to.
Fun to watch. I'm getting excited to see him again.
Thanks JBEX. You keep me interested and thinking with stuff like this. Appreciate it.

[JBEX]

no problem str..I agree with you in that if he's able to relax and sit just off the pace he has the chance to be something really good..tampa bay was the 1 time around 2 turns where he came from off the pace to win so maybe that'd be another good reason to run him there..if he does wind up at kee for the race I mentioned in my prior post it's a road heading to the stephen foster (G1 @ 1 1/8) with another G3 prep in between .. if 2 turns doesn't work out maybe he'll be a better 7f/1 turn mile horse..nothing wrong with that to make a good stallion but opportunities are much more limited..like you ,looking forward to seeing his 4yo debut which seems likely to be in the next few weeks

[JBEX]

here's that tampa bay race which as you know was his 2nd career start

https://youtu.be/58bc_z58Nw8?si=IqmOM21LolR6RUta

.

[JBEX]

not sure if anything can be gleaned from this quick look but here it is ..arriving at churchill downs for the derby

https://youtu.be/RFwuFsc_7KI?si=tMkK-nFxgsPklJ2s

.

[str]

The in-race betting that Betfair (and Orbit and others) offers might sound intriguing but it has a big problem: those offering the bets seem to think that 1 second out of the gate every horse is going to win the race. The overround figure immediately goes from 101% to 170%. It's very rare to find situations where a favorite goes above the last offer before the race starts. The only exception is when a favorite is 4th or 5th about 30 seconds into a race - in that case there seems to be some allowance for an increase in the offered payout. It's rare. I did have two 'last to first' winners (favorites) that I probably would have voided the bet for if I could have lol. Plus the liquidity for in-race can be very small on Betfair (literally $10), whereas Orbit does seem capable of matching larger bets.

I have to think that the reason behind this is that they understand that their ( whoever will be running these calculations) learning curve will be outmatched in at least some instances, by trained professionals that can see things more clearly and quicker than the Betfair employee can.

With a higher exposure to losses, they must cut all payouts to offset that. Nobody is perfect at this but that is why I said I would enjoy the challenge of using this. There would seemingly be an edge as long as Betfair didn't dilute that edge by offering below market pricing continually.
Appreciate the info. Thanks.

[str]

not sure if anything can be gleaned from this quick look but here it is ..arriving at churchill downs for the derby

https://youtu.be/RFwuFsc_7KI?si=tMkK-nFxgsPklJ2s

.

Three things. He has such a smart, poised eye. The first picture of him in the stall , they must not have put the hay in yet because he was eating then straw, and then the picture changes and he IS eating hay.

Be fun to get a video of him as a 4 year old and see what the difference might be.

Almost forgot, Brook Ledge is still in business I see. Always a solid van company. Guess they still are.

Thanks JBEX.

[JBEX]

Three things. He has such a smart, poised eye. The first picture of him in the stall , they must not have put the hay in yet because he was eating then straw, and then the picture changes and he IS eating hay.

Be fun to get a video of him as a 4 year old and see what the difference might be.

Almost forgot, Brook Ledge is still in business I see. Always a solid van company. Guess they still are.

Thanks JBEX.

no problem str and thanks for the feedback

with no background that's the impression I had of him .. I think when you commented on ruffian's look and how cool a customer KB was in the gate when the horse in the adjoining stall went crazy (la derby) may have biased me a bit

if I happen to see something about him as a 4yo will post ..would love to hear your opinion on his appearance although I guess you would've had to have a good look at him as a 3yo to make a comparison..that quick off the van probably not enough


went to brookledge's site ..even just being a player that would be the name I would give off the top of my head for horse transporters.. people who drive were involved in all phases of the industry on and off the track .. impressive operation




.

[JBEX]

with his quickness out of the gate and getting a 1 turn mile in his debut he might be very effective 7f to 1 turn mile horse (you referenced the distance part earlier).. possibly with more experience he could learn to handle a 2 turn mile because more than likely that's what the breeders cup will be

uncle mo can produce excellent turf runners also which might add to his stallion value should he be one..can definitely see why the long rest made a lot of sense .. a great 4 and 5yo season and he probably will start off as an elite stallion and be worth a bundle

[jamesrav]

I have to think that the reason behind this is that they understand that their ( whoever will be running these calculations) learning curve will be outmatched in at least some instances, by trained professionals that can see things more clearly and quicker than the Betfair employee can.
With a higher exposure to losses, they must cut all payouts to offset that. Nobody is perfect at this but that is why I said I would enjoy the challenge of using this. There would seemingly be an edge as long as Betfair didn't dilute that edge by offering below market pricing continually.
Appreciate the info. Thanks.

It's important to note that Betfair is strictly a middleman, they have no stake in the outcome - they just collect commissions. All these bets are real-time 'me vs. you' judgments. I think in-play betting for horses does offer some opportunity, since it's a free-for-all and mistakes can be made.

In looking at some data, not surprising that low favorites that lead after 2 or 3 furlongs go on to win in very high numbers. But the same cannot be said for higher odds runners (like 8/1). Seems to be a detriment in fact, more likely for a 'come from behind' win at those odds vs. leading after 2 or 3 furlongs.

[str]

It's important to note that Betfair is strictly a middleman, they have no stake in the outcome - they just collect commissions. All these bets are real-time 'me vs. you' judgments. I think in-play betting for horses does offer some opportunity, since it's a free-for-all and mistakes can be made.

In looking at some data, not surprising that low favorites that lead after 2 or 3 furlongs go on to win in very high numbers. But the same cannot be said for higher odds runners (like 8/1). Seems to be a detriment in fact, more likely for a 'come from behind' win at those odds vs. leading after 2 or 3 furlongs.

Good to know. Thanks.

1st highlighted Quote:
Most likely, if the me vs. you person is the same , they will have a style, or a tell, so to speak, that you could figure out and hopefully find his or hers flaws. Most everyone has one somewhere. It might be with horses coming from way back, mid pack or on or just off the lead. Probably NOT the last one as they are the most seen and probably the most over bet of the bunch.

I think when playing speed horses it would be crucial to play those BEFORE they post the first quarter fractions. That is more difficult for sprints but going two turns, not nearly as tough. Same would go for a stalker.
Case in point was the Classic last fall. That race was over as far as the winner was concerned going down the backside. The only hope for the eventual winner to lose was if they slowed down considerably after a 1/2 mile and before the 3/4 time was posted. I remember telling my very good friend that if they go 1:10 for 3/4's we could not lose. Nobody was running on down the backside, the duel up front was too fast, and White Albarrio was sitting alone 3rd, relaxed, totally within himself and just bidding his time. When they threw up nine and change, the only question was who was going to rally for 2nd.
It's not always as easy to see as that was , but it can still be seen often enough that when it does not materialize, you just sit it out and wait for the right circumstance.
Same goes for a two turn race if a solo speed horse gets alone early. Before they put up the 1st quarter time, you can see if it is going to be too slow. ( Do note that learning to see a relaxed horse, a rider who is just sitting there is not something you just see. This takes a lot of time to understand. ) But ,If and when you develop that vision, you can play that lone speed even at lesser odds because it quickly becomes that horses race to lose. That is a quicker call, and probably lesser odds, but probably worth it because you are alone and "walking the dog" on the lead.
Playing a deep closer would be more tricky. Not because the pace is perfect but they still need to have a trip , fire when asked, etc. And, it is setting up for all the closers, not just that one horse. In that case, you would need higher odds to offset, a perfect trip where the closer still got beat. So that would make sense.

Probably the best way to attack this is to have identified your premium speed play if it is a slow pace and you best stalker play and your best deep closer play. Pick the one that makes sense before or as close to the first 1/4 mile split is posted going long and let the race flow dictate your play.
Going long will be easier to identify if you are trying to learn this than most sprints will. Simply because everything is slowed down just enough for players to learn to see it.


2nd highlighted quote:

All that makes perfect sense. Speed favorites that indeed get the trip they want WILL win at a high rate. Higher prices probably won't mainly because they are higher prices and probably show that they cannot get the distance or fade when they try even if they DO make the lead. The public loves to bet speed. It a horse shows it and is not bet well, it is because their probably are others in the race that show more. But,
if the best speed gets left and the longer shot DOES get the lead, that's a different story. In that case, you WOULD potentially play that longer shot speed because the odds on speed horse got left.

Bottom line is I think you have to have a couple of plans ready to execute prior to the running of the race. If nothing unfolds, you sit it out. But when one of your plans does unfold, bet it.

Like most gambling, it all goes to patience and preparation. Have a plan or two ready to install quickly for each race, like an , if this than that and if that then this approach, but be willing to wait for the right scenario's to unfold.

Thank you for the info.

Hope all that makes sense.

[jamesrav]

I appreciate the detailed response, and can definitely see the value in knowing if a favorite is more or less likely (based on their history, if there is such) to mount a comeback from 5th or 6th position. In the two 'last to first' wins I had the other day, even the announcers seemed skeptical it could happen just 30 seconds into the race. Certainly a major factor is whether its a 4 1/2f or 1m or longer race. But to a non-horse person (me), it seems like an even odds horse would always have a chance no matter their history. If they are just 'doomed' to have a bad race that day and never get in gear, nothing can be done about that.

The in-play situation is quite interesting, the odds fluctuate every second and 'bargains' seem to emerge from nowhere from time to time. I have to think that's often (or solely) due to computer bots, since it's hard to explain why a favorite would be offered at 3.0 (for a $1 bet) when its near or in the lead at 30 seconds, and went off at 2.5 or some such (the true best guess of The Crowd).

With around 90 races in the US available Wed-Sat , this becomes closer to high-speed trading rather than handicapping. Knowing a tidbit about the favorite certainly could help in cases of 'should I' when the horse is way behind at 30 seconds. If that knowledge could save money avoiding foolish losses or generate revenue on wins, it would be worth knowing.

[Oulalapasbien]

I read your link. I did not know of anyone that was affected by this at all.

As for the last question, no, I do not currently bet on any exchanges and play only sparingly in the U.S. pools. I'm a casual fan of the game these days but still somewhat follow my friends who are training or riding.

When and if I retire, I will become more active I suppose and I have to say that the foreign market that would let you bet " in race", would be something I would love to get a hold of.

As for that particular race, I can see why Betfair cancelled those plays for that race. 28-1 near or at the finish line and in front and seemingly drawing off was an unfair advantage to say the least. It every gamblers dream to play into that. So yes, I agree with them in this situation.

However, if there was a way to honor all bets made up to a certain part of the race, well before the outcome was inevitable, I would side with doing that. I just don't know if that actually exists. It certainly sucks for you if your play was legit and you lose because of bets that were made when it became an unfair advantage. Hard to believe they could not differentiate between bet placements to accurately stop honoring tickets at a specific time line but I just do not know enough about it to speculate with that.

Hope that helps and thank you for posting a question. Hope to hear from you in the future sir.

All the best,

str

Thanks for that, str. Bookmakers are always the winners. I heard that only 2% of customers were winners on Betfair in long-term. I just would like add two things :
- especially in the case of Voler La Vedette race, for me, it was a proof that Betfair was behind of (maybe) 90% of liquidities that paraded in front of our eyes. If it was only customer's money, they would have applied their rule to take a % of each winning bets. No matter of how market reacts, Betfair should have won money. That's was not the case here. Betfair was too involved in that market imo so they had to cancel all bets.
- in others cases, Betfair settled a ton of bets in "dirty" markets especially in tennis (ex : Davydenko and others crazy russian tools) because they were not involved. Simply as that.
Well, i'm not a big fan of controversial theories but i think i'm right in this one.
Thanks again for your answer

[JBEX]

be pulling for white abarrio today str..love to see rick notch this win

[str]

I appreciate the detailed response, and can definitely see the value in knowing if a favorite is more or less likely (based on their history, if there is such) to mount a comeback from 5th or 6th position. In the two 'last to first' wins I had the other day, even the announcers seemed skeptical it could happen just 30 seconds into the race. Certainly a major factor is whether its a 4 1/2f or 1m or longer race. But to a non-horse person (me), it seems like an even odds horse would always have a chance no matter their history. If they are just 'doomed' to have a bad race that day and never get in gear, nothing can be done about that.

The in-play situation is quite interesting, the odds fluctuate every second and 'bargains' seem to emerge from nowhere from time to time. I have to think that's often (or solely) due to computer bots, since it's hard to explain why a favorite would be offered at 3.0 (for a $1 bet) when its near or in the lead at 30 seconds, and went off at 2.5 or some such (the true best guess of The Crowd).

With around 90 races in the US available Wed-Sat , this becomes closer to high-speed trading rather than handicapping. Knowing a tidbit about the favorite certainly could help in cases of 'should I' when the horse is way behind at 30 seconds. If that knowledge could save money avoiding foolish losses or generate revenue on wins, it would be worth knowing.

Personally, I think I would be selective in my plays. But it is something that would take time to get used to with fast paced action and the volume offered.
Like most things, I would most likely pour way more into it than I should, but it would likely benefit the bottom line and speed up the learning curve.

A very interesting concept for sure. Please keep me posted if you can as to the availability in the U.S. for this.

Thanks again !

str

[Madison]

Lengthy interview with Dutrow about White Abarrio just now on FS2.

[str]

Thanks for that, str. Bookmakers are always the winners. I heard that only 2% of customers were winners on Betfair in long-term. I just would like add two things :
- especially in the case of Voler La Vedette race, for me, it was a proof that Betfair was behind of (maybe) 90% of liquidities that paraded in front of our eyes. If it was only customer's money, they would have applied their rule to take a % of each winning bets. No matter of how market reacts, Betfair should have won money. That's was not the case here. Betfair was too involved in that market imo so they had to cancel all bets.
- in others cases, Betfair settled a ton of bets in "dirty" markets especially in tennis (ex : Davydenko and others crazy russian tools) because they were not involved. Simply as that.
Well, i'm not a big fan of controversial theories but i think i'm right in this one.
Thanks again for your answer

You know much more than I do about all of this so I certainly respect your position. Without having knowledge of how these things have been handled in the past, I am only guessing.
It stinks for any player to have happen, the circumstances you had to deal with. And because of my ignorance on the exact subject, I could very well be missing a key point. I do indeed believe you and your frustration and yeah, The books always win in the end over time. Not from every player, but as a group of players with different skill sets.
My guess would be that the 2% of winners are either limited or asked to leave over time. While I am quite confident I could profit over time doing this, you would need to breakdown the amount of time put in against the actual profit to see if it was worth while or just a fun hobby and pastime.
For me, it's all about having an edge. Not against the book but against the other players within pari-mutuel. If you have one, in any betting venue, you can succeed. But the question has to be, at what cost time wise and effort wise. Weighing those against each other can give you an idea of what you actually make per hour. Weigh that against is it really work or a hobby you very much enjoy. If it's work, that's a tough task, but if it's pure recreation and enjoyment and you can make money at it, that's a win, win because you ARE making money and also having fun doing it.
Please keep me posted as I do have interest in this venue for the U.S. market when and if available.

All the best sir.

[Jellymancan]

be pulling for white abarrio today str..love to see rick notch this win

Ditto. I’m going to try to watch!