Horse Racing questions and answers

[Easy-Rider 66]

The landmark 150th Kentucky Derby (G1) on Saturday, May 4, will be the richest in history as the purse for America's greatest race has been elevated to a guaranteed $5 million.


Used to 3 Million. I guess times are good with the game down in Blue Grass Country. Any reaction STR?

[str]

The landmark 150th Kentucky Derby (G1) on Saturday, May 4, will be the richest in history as the purse for America's greatest race has been elevated to a guaranteed $5 million.


Used to 3 Million. I guess times are good with the game down in Blue Grass Country. Any reaction STR?

It seems appropriate these days I guess. But let's face it, they aren't running for the purse. They are running for the history and future stud values.
Probably could offer a voucher to the Fasig Tipton yearling sales later that year for 4 million or the 3 million purse to the winner . That would be fun to watch.

Heck, you could even offer betting on purse or voucher before the race. The takeout would pay for the difference.
Now THAT, would create interest and handle. Lol.

Thanks EZ.

[Easy-Rider 66]

It seems appropriate these days I guess. But let's face it, they aren't running for the purse. They are running for the history and future stud values.
Probably could offer a voucher to the Fasig Tipton yearling sales later that year for 4 million or the 3 million purse to the winner . That would be fun to watch.

Heck, you could even offer betting on purse or voucher before the race. The takeout would pay for the difference.
Now THAT, would create interest and handle. Lol.

Thanks EZ.

[JBEX]

It seems appropriate these days I guess. But let's face it, they aren't running for the purse. They are running for the history and future stud values.
Probably could offer a voucher to the Fasig Tipton yearling sales later that year for 4 million or the 3 million purse to the winner . That would be fun to watch.

Heck, you could even offer betting on purse or voucher before the race. The takeout would pay for the difference.
Now THAT, would create interest and handle. Lol.

Thanks EZ.

like the fasig tipton voucher idea..

$3 million winners share

or


$2.5 million + $1M voucher


their choice

[JBEX]

like the fasig tipton voucher idea..

$3 million winners share

or


$2.5 million + $1M voucher


their choice

the choice part probably wouldn't go over well.. whatever the amount is in addition to the winner's share

.

[Pigpen]

Disarm working at Fair Grounds link:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1744433898082193507

Looking forward to his 4 yo season.

[str]

Disarm working at Fair Grounds link:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1744433898082193507

Looking forward to his 4 yo season.

Completely within himself there. A nice open gallop. Looks great. You can tell he likes it, wants to do it, and all signs from that show that he is on a perfect track for the season. Long way to go but seems he can't wait.

All business as a 4 year old. Last year, he would have been looking around and thinking. All he is thinking about there is business. Fun to see Pigpen.
Thanks for posting it.

[JBEX]

Disarm working at Fair Grounds link:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1744433898082193507

Looking forward to his 4 yo season.

gun runner now one of the three $250k stallions along with into mischief and curlin..his fee doubled from the last public listing in 2022 while IM was that and CU just a slight raise from $225k..I'm bad at remembering horses by sires off the top of my head but would think you've got to be a spectacular performer to not only be so expensive but ascend up the ranks so quickly
.

[str]

gun runner now one of the three $250k stallions along with into mischief and curlin..his fee doubled from the last public listing in 2022 while IM was that and CU just a slight raise from $225k..I'm bad at remembering horses by sires off the top of my head but would think you've got to be a spectacular performer to not only be so expensive but ascend up the ranks so quickly
.

Didn't Gun Runner move way up in ability as a 4 year old? I'm going on memory and was not paying a ton of attention.

Just thinking if that is correct, he might pass that along to his offspring. If so, and from the quick clip we saw from Pigpen, all the more reason to watch Disarm this year. Just something to think about.

[JBEX]

Didn't Gun Runner move way up in ability as a 4 year old? I'm going on memory and was not paying a ton of attention.

Just thinking if that is correct, he might pass that along to his offspring. If so, and from the quick clip we saw from Pigpen, all the more reason to watch Disarm this year. Just something to think about.

yes .. > 85% of his earnings were as a 4 and 5 yo and he finished with the pegasus stakes at gulfstream..believe that's the inaugural year and purse for the race was around $16M..he was an excellent 2 and 3yo also

[JBEX]

I agree str ..excellent chance the GR's will improve even more as they get older

[str]

yes .. > 85% of his earnings were as a 4 and 5 yo and he finished with the pegasus stakes at gulfstream..believe that's the inaugural year and purse for the race was around $16M..he was an excellent 2 and 3yo also

He was a very nice 2-3 year old but he became one of the top dogs as a 4 yr. Old and dominant as a 5 ? Is that right. ?

Also , is this his first crop of 4 year olds. ?

[JBEX]

He was a very nice 2-3 year old but he became one of the top dogs as a 4 yr. Old and dominant as a 5 ? Is that right. ?

Also , is this his first crop of 4 year olds. ?

he only ran once and finished his career as a 5yo winning the pegasus stakes ..aside from the enormous purse of that race most of the damage was done as a 4yo

believe his first crop raced in 2020 which means his first 4yos hit the track in 2022

[JBEX]

my 2024 ky derby future pick "locked" is by him also

[str]

he only ran once and finished his career as a 5yo winning the pegasus stakes ..aside from the enormous purse of that race most of the damage was done as a 4yo

believe his first crop raced in 2020 which means his first 4yos hit the track in 2022

He took a huge step forward as a 4 yr. old and of course the 5 year old race. He looked different to me in all the good ways as memory serves.
I have not followed his older offspring so I wonder if stats point to something. Reason for all this is in that easy breeze Pigpen posted, it reminded me of the way Gun Runner had filled out. Seemingly much more shoulder and rump. Those are the horse power of the stride.

I did not remember Disarm as built quite like that in those areas. Maybe I'm wrong. Just not sure.

[JBEX]

GR extremely stout and classy pedigree and wouldn't be surprised if he eventually winds up in the elite circle of all time us sires ..ap indy,seattle slew (api's sire),storm cat ,mr p
danzig etc..northern dancer a league of his own imo and danzig (son) and storm cat (grandson) are from his line

[Easy-Rider 66]

In a Jan. 13 social media posting Albaugh Family Stables announced that their grade 1-winning mare Juju's Map had produced the first foal for Flightline, the undefeated 2022 Horse of the Year.


Hey STR: This will be interesting to see how Flightline does with his offspring.

[str]

In a Jan. 13 social media posting Albaugh Family Stables announced that their grade 1-winning mare Juju's Map had produced the first foal for Flightline, the undefeated 2022 Horse of the Year.


Hey STR: This will be interesting to see how Flightline does with his offspring.

It sure will.

On the track he was a generational talent.

If he comes close to the hype, that would be really good.

If he matches the hype, the sky is the limit.

Thanks EZ.

[Madison]

Well, Well, look who turns up in a G3 in its 3rd start.

01/20/2024

FG

Lecomte-G3

1 1/16 m

D

3

Nash, Can Group, Track Phantom, Next Level, Awesome Road, Lat Long, Tizzy Indy, Ethan Energy

[str]

Well, Well, look who turns up in a G3 in its 3rd start.

01/20/2024

FG

Lecomte-G3

1 1/16 m

D

3

Nash, Can Group, Track Phantom, Next Level, Awesome Road, Lat Long, Tizzy Indy, Ethan Energy

This might help explain his last race:

From the DRF:


Ethan Energy is the best alternative to Track Phantom and Nash. Front-runners dominated Dec. 23 dirt races at Fair Grounds, but Ethan Energy rallied sharply from fourth at the five-sixteenths pole to win a maiden route by 5 1/4 lengths. His final 2 1/2 furlongs in 31.19 went considerably quicker than the closing fractions in the faster-paced Gun Runner, but Ethan Energy, sixth in his sprint debut last October, needs another step forward.
Luis Saez replaces Florent Geroux on Ethan Energy

[JBEX]

hey str

with how some horses are prepping these days for the derby (later debuts and fewer races) do you agree that breaking your maiden first out in december @ GP (vs msw) at 7f while opening up >3 lengths in the stretch might not be a bad starting point ? that extra furlong as a baseline an important thing to me as i wouldn't otherwise consider this horse for a play .. things are in place with connections, pedigree and odds (future bet) imo ..kind of reminds me of kingsbarns (todd also) but his debut was at a mile in january

[str]

hey str

with how some horses are prepping these days for the derby (later debuts and fewer races) do you agree that breaking your maiden first out in december @ GP (vs msw) at 7f while opening up >3 lengths in the stretch might not be a bad starting point ? that extra furlong as a baseline an important thing to me as i wouldn't otherwise consider this horse for a play .. things are in place with connections, pedigree and odds (future bet) imo ..kind of reminds me of kingsbarns (todd also) but his debut was at a mile in january

Yes. I do agree. For me, what it shows is that going longer has been on the mind of the trainer and in the training schedule since probably the first timed workout. Relax, respond, finish, gallop out. It would be pretty much the same idea going 7/8ths or a mile with most horses IMO.
Not talking about the one trainer who never had a horse he didn't train to go to the front, but everybody else. And I'm not bashing that trainer for it, heck, it has been as successful as anything but that stance is a lot easier to take when you receive the babies he does.

So talking about most others, yes, I think I prefer that. That extra 1/8th of a mile starts early on in the training process. Relax, kick on doesn't just happen. It starts day one. That can be very beneficial down the road. We saw it with Kingsbarns up until his brain melted in the Derby. Too me, he looked totally different at Monmouth after that than he had leading up to early May.
Just seems in my mind that it HAS to help prep for the Derby distance and all the hoopla that comes with it.
Good question JBEX. I say use that as a plus for sure.

[JBEX]

Yes. I do agree. For me, what it shows is that going longer has been on the mind of the trainer and in the training schedule since probably the first timed workout. Relax, respond, finish, gallop out. It would be pretty much the same idea going 7/8ths or a mile with most horses IMO.
Not talking about the one trainer who never had a horse he didn't train to go to the front, but everybody else. And I'm not bashing that trainer for it, heck, it has been as successful as anything but that stance is a lot easier to take when you receive the babies he does.

So talking about most others, yes, I think I prefer that. That extra 1/8th of a mile starts early on in the training process. Relax, kick on doesn't just happen. It starts day one. That can be very beneficial down the road. We saw it with Kingsbarns up until his brain melted in the Derby. Too me, he looked totally different at Monmouth after that than he had leading up to early May.
Just seems in my mind that it HAS to help prep for the Derby distance and all the hoopla that comes with it.
Good question JBEX. I say use that as a plus for sure.

thanks str and i think it's something i may have brought up in the past with you..know the other trainer you speak of lol
..


this is the horse i posted for this round of the futures l..probably the only 2 positions (pool 2) i will take for these bets



.

[JBEX]

do you think a top ny jock might have more success getting a young 3yo to rate vs an average midwest jock ?? trying to establish the big difference in talent with my example.. understand some horses just can't

[Madison]

This might help explain his last race:

From the DRF:


Ethan Energy is the best alternative to Track Phantom and Nash. Front-runners dominated Dec. 23 dirt races at Fair Grounds, but Ethan Energy rallied sharply from fourth at the five-sixteenths pole to win a maiden route by 5 1/4 lengths. His final 2 1/2 furlongs in 31.19 went considerably quicker than the closing fractions in the faster-paced Gun Runner, but Ethan Energy, sixth in his sprint debut last October, needs another step forward.
Luis Saez replaces Florent Geroux on Ethan Energy

yes, makes me feel a bit better. Would a repeat of last get him home here??

[str]

do you think a top ny jock might have more success getting a young 3yo to rate vs an average midwest jock ?? trying to establish the big difference in talent with my example.. understand some horses just can't

It more depends on the horse. No jock could rate a horse that just won't. Obviously a NY rider is probably a more solid all around rider than a midwest one or THEY would be in NY also but there are plenty of sit still types out there that could do it. Especially if they have been able to in the past.

[str]

yes, makes me feel a bit better. Would a repeat of last get him home here??

He will most likely have to add to that repeat performance . The water gets deeper quickly in these.

The comment says 31.19 and that's fine but the writer compares it to a race that went much faster early. Only a handful can run much faster early and much faster late. That comment might be a bit misleading without thinking it through.

The 31.19 I will assume is 24 and change from the 3/16ths pole to the 1/16th pole and 6 and change from the 16th to the wire. Nice win for a maiden and high hopes but I have to think a closer would need a bit more in here. All things being equal of course.
Hope that helps.

[str]

Thought I would make sure horse players and enthusiasts saw this.




Bob Baffert and Zedan Racing will drop their appeal of a ruling by the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission to disqualify Medina Spirit from the 2021 Kentucky Derby and issue Baffert a 90-day suspension for the horse’s positive drug test after the race, Baffert said in a social-media post Monday night.


“Zedan Racing’s owner, Amr Zedan, and I have decided that it is best to positively focus on the present and future that our great sport offers,” Baffert said in the social-media post. “We thank the KHRC and Churchill Downs for listening and considering our point of view and we are grateful for the changes and the clarity that HISA brings to our sport.”

[str]

Cody's Wish wins the 2023 Horse Of The Year.

Really glad to see that.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Cody's Wish wins the 2023 Horse Of The Year.

Really glad to see that.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: no rush on this question. But I am back capping the game after about a 5 month hiatus. I looked briefly in the search thread but could not find the time you referenced the Z Patttern. If you could talk about that specific running line (maybe an example of it) and why you don't play horses running that type of pattern I would appreciate it. THX in advance.

[str]

Hey STR: no rush on this question. But I am back capping the game after about a 5 month hiatus. I looked briefly in the search thread but could not find the time you referenced the Z Patttern. If you could talk about that specific running line (maybe an example of it) and why you don't play horses running that type of pattern I would appreciate it. THX in advance.

Sure EZ.
A speed type or stalker horse that lays 3rd early so let's say 3rd by 3, then 4 by 5, then 6th by 8 and finishes 5th by 4 1/2. That horse put in no real late run in all probability. The final lengths and position was probably a byproduct of a collapse of the leaders who stopped quicker than the slow methodical fade of the horse we are talking about. While never threatening, he only loses by 4 1/2 lengths but was never a serious contender.

A mid stalk or closer Z pattern might look like 7th by 5, 7th by 6, 9th by 10 , 6th by 6.

What these most times are , are other horses in the field creating a false feeling for this horse. Maybe a horse on the lead drew off by 6 lengths at the 1/8th pole and costed home to a very impressive 2 length win eased up so 3 or 4 lengths shows up in the beaten horse as lengths possibly made up.

One way to quickly check this is look at the final 1/16th, or 1/8th of a mile time and see how fast, or slow it was. That tells you how the horses on and near the lead finished. Now gauge your horses final time and it will probably be just average and nothing to get all excited about by using 1/5ths of a second and adding or subtracting from the 1/8th pole time and the final time.

We have seen a horse open up 5 lengths at the 1/8th pole and win by a nose before. Most likely the horse in 2nd was running well late but were the horses running 5,6,7,8 at the 1/8th pole running well? Probably not as well as the lengths on the chart might suggest.

Those are some examples. If you see one and question it, let me know if you want me to look at it.


Off subject but just a little:
We do know of a horse, White Albarrio, that kind of did this stuff somewhat before Ricky got him. In hindsight it was most likely his feet that he started thinking about instead of being focused on running. If the horses mind wonders during the race, not many of those can win consistently. A wondering mind, an ache or pain, etc. can produce that.
I know I have said it in here several times but the old adage, "No Feet, No Horse" is really true and more times than not they show up on grey hoses or chestnuts with white legs and feet. Thinner skin or shell of foot than dark feet or skin.
That was something we all learned from Dickie early on. His help worked on feet more than any trainer I ever saw. Which in anyone's case that became a trainer after being employed by Dickie and wanting to learn, would take with them most likely. Obviously Ricky and Chip did.

Knock on wood but that horse looks amazing and is seriously ready for his next race from what I see and have heard Ricky say. Just handle the flight over and the track and good things will show up. Sure hope so.



Keep me posted EZ. GL.

[Easy-Rider 66]

THX STR. makes sense. Going to copy your response to my email to keep it in mind. And White Albarrio heading to Dubai. BOL to him and Rick.

[Jellymancan]

Hey STR: no rush on this question. But I am back capping the game after about a 5 month hiatus. I looked briefly in the search thread but could not find the time you referenced the Z Patttern. If you could talk about that specific running line (maybe an example of it) and why you don't play horses running that type of pattern I would appreciate it. THX in advance.

Nice to see you back in the game, ez. Good luck this year!

[Easy-Rider 66]

Nice to see you back in the game, ez. Good luck this year!

THX Jelly. usually when I take a break I come back stronger. so far so good. When will you start posting plays again. I assume this Spring? GL.