Horse Racing questions and answers

[JBEX]

I watched the race. The rider rode him every inch of the way. He showed no speed at all early and passed a couple very late. Can't say he would have won at all but I do think he would have run somewhat better if the track was fair. That said, so would all of the closers in all probability.

not attuned to the biases as much as others but the tvg guys did describe it as a "no passing zone"..guess that's not a surprise approaching a breeders cup card..don't think it would have mattered enough but probably did affect his performance


I noticed afterwards that besides the lone win @ 5-2 the lowest odds on the other 4 races was 42-1..really strange set of past performances

[str]

I do not think I mentioned it before so I thought I would let anyone interested know that a book will be released next April about Spectacular Bid and his quest for the Triple Crown. The author is Jack Gilden. He has written several books about Maryland sports. Pretty sure he wrote one about Johnny Unitas. Anyway, I was told yesterday it is preselling on Amazon and apparently doing really well. The name of the book is "The Fast Ride" and the undoing of a sure thing. There is also some talk about possibly making a movie about it. But it's just talk at this point.

Because this took place 40 + years ago, many of the people surrounding Bid are now gone. Jack was getting conflicting stories from those still alive so it must have been tough to sift through who was saying what. He interviewed me twice for information about those times and had really solid questions that only a handful of people would have known to ask. I'm not sure how the book actually turned out as I do not know what stories he went with or if he offered multiple stories for the reader to decide. I hope he got it right because there was some serious BS coming from certain people he interviewed. Not my opinion of BS, but total BS because I was there and saw it first hand and it was BS.

Like I said, I don't know which way the book will actually tell the story but I have to think it will be a great read for someone that loves horses and the history of Bid.

I hope it tells the readers what really took place leading up to and of course, that day of the Belmont and just as importantly, the next day when Bid was back at Pimlico which is where some of the BS was flying around. It was a quiet Sunday morning . It was right in front of my face. I know what I saw and while I am getting older, I'm not that old yet that I can't recall it. I have to admit, I had not thought about it before but it is pretty special that I was able to witness a lot of that stuff. I never realized then that it would be such a big deal down the road.

[solring]

Taking preorders for release on 01 April 2022 for US$34.95 : https://www.amazon.com/Fast-Ride-Spe...dp/B09JS31PDD/

Kindle version preorder price the same as the hardcover.

[Easy-Rider 66]

I do not think I mentioned it before so I thought I would let anyone interested know that a book will be released next April about Spectacular Bid and his quest for the Triple Crown. The author is Jack Gilden. He has written several books about Maryland sports. Pretty sure he wrote one about Johnny Unitas. Anyway, I was told yesterday it is preselling on Amazon and apparently doing really well. The name of the book is "The Fast Ride" and the undoing of a sure thing. There is also some talk about possibly making a movie about it. But it's just talk at this point.

Because this took place 40 + years ago, many of the people surrounding Bid are now gone. Jack was getting conflicting stories from those still alive so it must have been tough to sift through who was saying what. He interviewed me twice for information about those times and had really solid questions that only a handful of people would have known to ask. I'm not sure how the book actually turned out as I do not know what stories he went with or if he offered multiple stories for the reader to decide. I hope he got it right because there was some serious BS coming from certain people he interviewed. Not my opinion of BS, but total BS because I was there and saw it first hand and it was BS.

Like I said, I don't know which way the book will actually tell the story but I have to think it will be a great read for someone that loves horses and the history of Bid.

I hope it tells the readers what really took place leading up to and of course, that day of the Belmont and just as importantly, the next day when Bid was back at Pimlico which is where some of the BS was flying around. It was a quiet Sunday morning . It was right in front of my face. I know what I saw and while I am getting older, I'm not that old yet that I can't recall it. I have to admit, I had not thought about it before but it is pretty special that I was able to witness a lot of that stuff. I never realized then that it would be such a big deal down the road.

Thx for the info STR. Good deal that you are interviewed for the book. I do not read books but may check out the movie if they make one. Also question on the Mountain R8 tonight. The #5 Collude sat down in the gate. She then got up and sat down again. She finally righted herself and was cleared by the vet I guess to run. She went off as the Heavy odds on Favorite and lagged behind by 12 lengths early until she made up ground late. She placed 5th or 6th. Two part question: 1. What does that indicate to you by the horse sitting down? and 2. do you think if that horse was not the heavy odds on Favorite Mountaineer would have run her? THX in advance.

[str]

Thx for the info STR. Good deal that you are interviewed for the book. I do not read books but may check out the movie if they make one. Also question on the Mountain R8 tonight. The #5 Collude sat down in the gate. She then got up and sat down again. She finally righted herself and was cleared by the vet I guess to run. She went off as the Heavy odds on Favorite and lagged behind by 12 lengths early until she made up ground late. She placed 5th or 6th. Two part question: 1. What does that indicate to you by the horse sitting down? and 2. do you think if that horse was not the heavy odds on Favorite Mountaineer would have run her? THX in advance.

So this one is a bit tricky in that sitting down usually does not equate to being injured. If the sole job of the state vet is to inspect the horse to make sure it is racing sound, the horse probably was no worse the wear for sitting down. However, when a horse does this and rights itself and then does it AGAIN, whoa, that horse has it's mind on something else. Certainly not racing.

The difficulty here IMO, if it's way back when, anyone that is going to call that shot and scratch the horse at a place like Mountaineer on a hunch or a whim, especially a 4-5 shot would be in line for getting a ton of grief by management. I mean, if this is Saratoga, yep, scratched would be my expectation. But this is Mountaineer. Every dollar counts and a call like that would not be well received if it knocked out a lot of the pool. It's just the way it is Easy. So has it changed or is it still in way back when mode?

We have seen great strides over the last 20-30 years compared to what it was like back in the day in many facets of the game at a place where there is no bottom line worries like Saratoga and maybe the same at other solid tracks. But West Virginia is not that. It has to be viewed upon as buyer beware I think. Just my opinion but when we see it over and over again so at some point it goes from opinion to past performance.

Q. 1. What does that indicate to you by the horse sitting down?

A. It could simply indicate that the horse was startled, went to rear up and the back legs could not support the weight so they gave way and the horse sat down. Nothing really mental at all about that , it just happened. But to sit down a second time tells me that the mare was smart and was mentally unprepared to run, and not by just a little. Not all react that way but some do. Typically the smarter ones.
I guess I would need to see it to really confirm my thoughts but what I just said makes sense too me. I see 4-5, I assume a big drop and not races in about 80 days. That's probably not the best scenario to be in.

Q. 2. do you think if that horse was not the heavy odds on Favorite Mountaineer would have run her?

A. I don't know what their track record for gate scratches in this case is. I guess what you have to ask yourself is " would they have scratched her as a fav or longshot at Saratoga? Then, work it backwards through the other tracks until you get to Mountaineer.
You would hope that being the favorite or not had no bearing on the call, but geez, where money and handle is it's life blood, it's hard to not consider that isn't it?

I guess you just have to concede going in that when you play at a lesser track, you should expect lesser expectations. That is not the way it should be, but should be and reality are not always in line.

Sorry if you played her. Hope you didn't but if you play at a lesser track, like I said, I would go in with lesser expectations. And probably lesser amounts bet as well.

Wish I could have sugar coated it better for everyone and again, I did not see it or know this horses gate habits at all. So a lot of assumption goes into this response which could very well be really unfair. If so, I stand corrected. But if not, it kind of makes sense as your question basically alluded to when you asked it.

All the best Easy.

Great to hear from you !

[Easy-Rider 66]

THx for the take STR. Good read. Yeah I did not play her. I had a long shot that came in so was happy to see her run poorly.

[JBEX]

hey str

aqu R7 #7 labarde (15-1)

loaded field of big pedigrees and/or lightly raced horses who've showed promise

what I like about mine is ..

big debut and now gets to run off a rest

bet heavily in that race and horse who beat him came back to repeat

had the rail and 2 post last couple and gets further outside today

jose ortiz rides and he's done well with this trainer


trainer change to de paz who has excellent roi's over a large overall sample in addition to with new acquisitions and adding blinkers


at a price find interesting



if you like another feel free lol

[str]

hey str

aqu R7 #7 labarde (15-1)

loaded field of big pedigrees and/or lightly raced horses who've showed promise

what I like about mine is ..

big debut and now gets to run off a rest

bet heavily in that race and horse who beat him came back to repeat

had the rail and 2 post last couple and gets further outside today

jose ortiz rides and he's done well with this trainer


trainer change to de paz who has excellent roi's over a large overall sample in addition to with new acquisitions and adding blinkers


at a price find interesting



if you like another feel free lol

This race looks like a highlight real of what you want to see next time out when they didn't win last time. LOL.

We see Seaz on the 1, taking off of the 10 who ran very well 1st out.

The 2 ran really well from the 1 hole and should improve 2nd time out.

The 3 ran 2nd last out in the same type of race.

The 6 looks like a solid firster.

The 8 is Michelle's horse and we know this one is ready to run better 2nd out with Blks. ON. Of course, the mentor angle talked about all the time here and lost to yours by a head last time.

The 9 had the 1 hole and all the worst of it 1st out for Shug.

The 10 ran fine 1st out in the same spot.

The 11 turns back and has shown it can sprint.

Even the 12 comes in with solid connections when it comes to firsters.

Whew !

Now your horse.

Has multiple solid things going for it as you spoke about. I agree with all of what you said. Can't beat that price if it holds up.

An incredible race with all the things we have talked about all year for players to watch for.

If someone wanted to teach a course on babies early in their careers, this would be the race to look at. Only problem is only one can win and the other theory's will take a hit. Lol.

Very cool race and at the end of the day, finding a price seems a must being as you can make a case for almost all of them.

Good luck JBEX and thanks for showing me this race. It's loaded with potential form for players.

[JBEX]

This race looks like a highlight real of what you want to see next time out when they didn't win last time. LOL.

We see Seaz on the 1, taking off of the 10 who ran very well 1st out.

The 2 ran really well from the 1 hole and should improve 2nd time out.

The 3 ran 2nd last out in the same type of race.

The 6 looks like a solid firster.

The 8 is Michelle's horse and we know this one is ready to run better 2nd out with Blks. ON. Of course, the mentor angle talked about all the time here and lost to yours by a head last time.

The 9 had the 1 hole and all the worst of it 1st out for Shug.

The 10 ran fine 1st out in the same spot.

The 11 turns back and has shown it can sprint.

Even the 12 comes in with solid connections when it comes to firsters.

Whew !

Now your horse.

Has multiple solid things going for it as you spoke about. I agree with all of what you said. Can't beat that price if it holds up.

An incredible race with all the things we have talked about all year for players to watch for.

If someone wanted to teach a course on babies early in their careers, this would be the race to look at. Only problem is only one can win and the other theory's will take a hit. Lol.

Very cool race and at the end of the day, finding a price seems a must being as you can make a case for almost all of them.

Good luck JBEX and thanks for showing me this race. It's loaded with potential form for players.

busy so didn't have a chance to check back during the day...was a very competitive race on paper..easy when looking at it afterwards but the winner wasn't bad at $33 and think a big part of why you got that was it wasn't one of the glam trainers..bob klesaris goes back a long way as you know and back in the 80's and 90's one of the better ny trainers


I mean he ran 4 races and the debut along with 2 back effort were both near misses..slop at saratoga start 2 and did some decent running last out at at bel going 1 1/16... that was a nice price for this one


my horse was very erratic early and looked like maybe he didn't like the kick back..dont think the blinkers would have caused that



no problem on showing you the race and appreciate the feedback str

[JBEX]

bel R6 tomorrow a 2yo msw for NY breds..nothing like today's but still a nice field..I always toss horses who finished in the money last out as they are not what I'm looking for in these type of races..going to stay away from asmussen also as there's no value there long term (don't always just toss him despite what I just said lol)


ortiz bros look like they're on a couple of decent firsters..think I like jose's #3 yo cuz (6-1) a little better..fits my expensive relative to ped angle and like the work pattern especially for a mott horse..looks like they asked her for a little bit more
each work


feel free to give your thoughts on the race

[str]

bel R6 tomorrow a 2yo msw for NY breds..nothing like today's but still a nice field..I always toss horses who finished in the money last out as they are not what I'm looking for in these type of races..going to stay away from asmussen also as there's no value there long term (don't always just toss him despite what I just said lol)


ortiz bros look like they're on a couple of decent firsters..think I like jose's #3 yo cuz (6-1) a little better..fits my expensive relative to ped angle and like the work pattern especially for a mott horse..looks like they asked her for a little bit more
each work


feel free to give your thoughts on the race

I see what you are seeing. Makes sense to me. Two horses in here by a 37% FTS sire win rate. Whew. I'm assuming a low amount of firsters help make up that high %.
Gotta think the 2 ( other Ortiz brother) will get a ton of play and not be 5-1 ML if it is live.
If that's the case, your pick seems logical at what seems like it would be a decent price.
GL if you play JBEX.

[JBEX]

I see what you are seeing. Makes sense to me. Two horses in here by a 37% FTS sire win rate. Whew. I'm assuming a low amount of firsters help make up that high %.
Gotta think the 2 ( other Ortiz brother) will get a ton of play and not be 5-1 ML if it is live.
If that's the case, your pick seems logical at what seems like it would be a decent price.
GL if you play JBEX.

yeah he's a first year sire who's off to an amazing start .. being by "into mischief" he's likely to keep getting better especially when bred to higher quality mares

could see them both taking money..englehart (irad's) no slouch when it comes to winning with firsters

thanks str

[JBEX]

I think a good wildcard at a price is #9 leeloo (15-1)..by that same sire practical joke (irad's) and it's the dam's first foal to race (albeit she was a winner..nothing special)..dam sire above average with firsters..good chunk of change for those specs imo..we discussed trainer once before but couldn't find the post..also good gate jockey lol and outside has been doing well over a very small sample

[JBEX]

hey str

mahoning has a big race day today.. 2 stakes races and one of them is for $250k which of course drew big out of town connections.. already saw something a little interesting in the lesser stake (haven't looked at the other yet)


connections better hope I don't land on their horse the way I've been going lol

R1 (only other race I'm looking at besides the stakes)


#4 Irie island man (8-1)

where'd that last race come from ?? talk about a form reversal .. not exactly an easy race either pressured on the front end .. only things I noticed is in his career he hasn't come in the money in 6 sprint races, has caught a lot of muddy tracks and even 1 turf race.. 4 back was off a 7 week layoff against allowance company (admittedly didn't lift a hoof)


I'll put up the other two by 10am.. the earlier stake (R7) post is 3:34..as always if you can't it'll just be picks and write-ups

[str]

hey str

mahoning has a big race day today.. 2 stakes races and one of them is for $250k which of course drew big out of town connections.. already saw something a little interesting in the lesser stake (haven't looked at the other yet)


connections better hope I don't land on their horse the way I've been going lol

R1 (only other race I'm looking at besides the stakes)


#4 Irie island man (8-1)

where'd that last race come from ?? talk about a form reversal .. not exactly an easy race either pressured on the front end .. only things I noticed is in his career he hasn't come in the money in 6 sprint races, has caught a lot of muddy tracks and even 1 turf race.. 4 back was off a 7 week layoff against allowance company (admittedly didn't lift a hoof)


I'll put up the other two by 10am.. the earlier stake (R7) post is 3:34..as always if you can't it'll just be picks and write-ups

Two nice races from the 1 post and every other post he runs terrible. Lol. I don't see how that could be it but... That is the only thing I see that would lend any understanding to this horses form reversal.
And I don't get why the one post would matter unless there was some ridiculous rail bias both times he drew inside, which I have seen plenty of times but still, without knowing for sure, you can't use that as a reason. It would be a guess at best.
If you went back and checked the charts on the 10th it would probably answer that question. DRF only goes back a week.

[JBEX]

Two nice races from the 1 post and every other post he runs terrible. Lol. I don't see how that could be it but... That is the only thing I see that would lend any understanding to this horses form reversal.
And I don't get why the one post would matter unless there was some ridiculous rail bias both times he drew inside, which I have seen plenty of times but still, without knowing for sure, you can't use that as a reason. It would be a guess at best.
If you went back and checked the charts on the 10th it would probably answer that question. DRF only goes back a week.

I like the possibility that it was an inside bias explanation the best especially with both good efforts being from the rail..going to stay with him in spite of the fact he's returning rather quick and the possible bias



R7 #5 prodigy doll (6-1)

of course the out-of-towners will draw a lot of attention but 1 good thing is they are drawn outside and that's not a good thing at this track


like the progression from Penn up to winning the same type of race here impressively off the long layoff..she's run well over the surface and best jock at this track is riding..he also happened to be on her in that win..another nice run in the off the turf stakes at pimilico..was really coming late but not quite at 5f..have to mention bad effort race before at pimlico..looks like may have been a tough trip from the comment..2 slops and a poly after that with the last effort at cd a decent 2nd..kind of race I would think the local jock would love to win going up against the big guys


going to look at other stakes soon

[str]

I like the possibility that it was an inside bias explanation the best especially with both good efforts being from the rail..going to stay with him in spite of the fact he's returning rather quick and the possible bias



R7 #5 prodigy doll (6-1)

of course the out-of-towners will draw a lot of attention but 1 good thing is they are drawn outside and that's not a good thing at this track


like the progression from Penn up to winning the same type of race here impressively off the long layoff..she's run well over the surface and best jock at this track is riding..he also happened to be on her in that win..another nice run in the off the turf stakes at pimilico..was really coming late but not quite at 5f..have to mention bad effort race before at pimlico..looks like may have been a tough trip from the comment..2 slops and a poly after that with the last effort at cd a decent 2nd..kind of race I would think the local jock would love to win going up against the big guys


going to look at other stakes soon

Small track leading riders on days like this get PUMPED UP to ride against the out of town big name riders. Happens all the time. So that angle is solid. That bad race in the Miss Preakness can be thrown out. Outside trip from well back on Preakness day in that race has no chance and last year was not an exception if I recall.
With the outside not the place to be for the monster ship ins and the outside riders possibly not aware of that, that can only help. I like your take on hometown horses in here. No, they are not the best horses, but the best horse doesn't always win right?
Go for it. GL.

[JBEX]

Small track leading riders on days like this get PUMPED UP to ride against the out of town big name riders. Happens all the time. So that angle is solid. That bad race in the Miss Preakness can be thrown out. Outside trip from well back on Preakness day in that race has no chance and last year was not an exception if I recall.
With the outside not the place to be for the monster ship ins and the outside riders possibly not aware of that, that can only help. I like your take on hometown horses in here. No, they are not the best horses, but the best horse doesn't always win right?
Go for it. GL.

thanks str and the insight on the outside posts not the place to be on preakness day is very good to know..thought you would like the local good rider being highly motivated to beat the big jocks angle..exactly on the best on paper not always getting it done..what makes this game interesting


here's the other


R8 #5 new bomb (5-1)

just like the way he continually improves @ 6f and I'll give him a pass @ 38-1 in the grade 1@ 7f two starts back.. top 3 in that race came back to repeat and counting his it's at least 4..2nd place horse in his last race (he won) came back to win..he did misfire in his only other start at 7f..lot of speed in here gives me cause for concern though..did pass 4 horses in the 7f race 4 back so possibly she could sit a little off the likely battle here

[JBEX]

had it written up as a filly race when it's for the boys..doesn't matter to me and corrected it

[str]

thanks str and the insight on the outside posts not the place to be on preakness day is very good to know..thought you would like the local good rider being highly motivated to beat the big jocks angle..exactly on the best on paper not always getting it done..what makes this game interesting


here's the other


R8 #5 new bomb (5-1)

just like the way he continually improves @ 6f and I'll give him a pass @ 38-1 in the grade 1@ 7f two starts back.. top 3 in that race came back to repeat and counting his it's at least 4..2nd place horse in his last race (he won) came back to win..he did misfire in his only other start at 7f..lot of speed in here gives me cause for concern though..did pass 4 horses in the 7f race 4 back so possibly she could sit a little off the likely battle here

Wow, there is a lot of speed for sure. All the horses that break 1st. They should have a bet on that. Lol.

You never know with these races with tons of speed. It usually comes down to the break .

I see what you are looking at with your pick . He needs to be forward but with outside position will allow him to be just off I think.

With so much coming down to the break, you being outside of several speeds is probably a good thing. guess it comes down to is the horse able to step up and play with these big boys. Certainly has a chance to off his latest form.

GL if you play.

[JBEX]

Wow, there is a lot of speed for sure. All the horses that break 1st. They should have a bet on that. Lol.

You never know with these races with tons of speed. It usually comes down to the break .

I see what you are looking at with your pick . He needs to be forward but with outside position will allow him to be just off I think.

With so much coming down to the break, you being outside of several speeds is probably a good thing. guess it comes down to is the horse able to step up and play with these big boys. Certainly has a chance to off his latest form.

GL if you play.

thanks str..yeah I think being able to lay a little off of the pace key here..was thinking of #6 mister luigi (8-1) as he's proven laying off the pace and hit a big figure 2 back..just can't play that trainer as he's a real money burner in today's categories..we'll find out soon enough

[JBEX]

winner won with a huge close and paid $121(59-1)
..horse was claimed 2x in his last 4 starts and the claim 4 back was for 12.5k from his owner/breeder
(cheap Michigan bred ..1k stallion fee)..then claimed 2 back for $15k ..two who lost him ..gotta hurt especially the breeder 4 back..winners share $150k ..chalk (maybe the wrong word lol) one up for the little guys

[JBEX]

parx


R8 #6 icy cold (7-2)

not a hunch play (me)

only reason I'm putting it in your thread str is he's a homebred out of a 24 yo "allen's prospect" mare..we've discussed him b4 being he was a solid maryland sire..
dam extremely productive overall, with 2yo's and has a stakes winner..sire relatively new and a son of uncle mo so proclivity to win early..top trainer (although admittedly way overbet with debuters) ..excellent works including the last,a bullet 4f from the gate .. overall decent race for penn breds

[JBEX]

parx


R8 #6 icy cold (7-2)

not a hunch play (me)

only reason I'm putting it in your thread str is he's a homebred out of a 24 yo "allen's prospect" mare..we've discussed him b4 being he was a solid maryland sire..
dam extremely productive overall, with 2yo's and has a stakes winner..sire relatively new and a son of uncle mo so proclivity to win early..top trainer (although admittedly way overbet with debuters) ..excellent works including the last,a bullet 4f from the gate .. overall decent race for penn breds

one other important thing that I should've mentioned that might not be so good..servis has the favorite also and he was ridden by jock on mine today..best jock at the track pennington rides the that one ..he also gets an outside post today whereas first 2 he left from inside posts


maybe that's not a bad thing as it will likely attract money to the other



.

[str]

one other important thing that I should've mentioned that might not be so good..servis has the favorite also and he was ridden by jock on mine today..best jock at the track pennington rides the that one ..he also gets an outside post today whereas first 2 he left from inside posts


maybe that's not a bad thing as it will likely attract money to the other



.

I tried comparing works as babies train together always within an outfit. But not these two. They were in different sets or groups. Doesn't look like they ever worked together, at least not in the past couple of months. If you look at Bernie Houghton's 2 entries, they worked together each time. See what I mean? Bernie made it a point to keep his together and not let either one draw away. That makes sense and is often implemented. But, chances are one was more in hand than the other. Looks like Bernie could be showing his hand with the rider selections. We will have to see.

But back to your horse, everything you mentioned is what I look for to make a determination on babies as best I can. Outside post is certainly a plus for the other Servis horse as long as the track is fair, hopefully, but it is cold these days and the track is typically graded much more often, even everyday because by now they have added more cushion while winterizing the track. More cushion means more room for error during the winter.
Kate's firster probably runs 5th but watch that one for start number 3. Your selection is bred for speed up and down as well as running well first time out. While the other horse outside is a challenge, the money will show on that one for sure. Yours should want to be forwardly placed early with a decent chance to run very well. I'm good with that. And Allens Prospect yes, real solid sire back in the day and plenty of his offspring showed speed.
The PA Bred program has come a very long way. It was a joke back in the day. Not anymore.

Also, on a previous post I mentioned the Miss Preakness Stakes and not being able to close from well back early and wide in that race. That is true but didn't want to say that the outside post was not good. It can be, but horses just struggle to rally wide and from far back in sprints on Preakness day. The track typically favors speed AND more importantly, rail on that day and the day before. They grade it quite a bit Thursday night so it will be fine both days weather permitting. But Pimlico does not have the same pitch angle as Laurel, thus it takes dirt longer to filter back down to the rail, therefore favoring inside and typically speed.
That is what I meant with that comment. I didn't want to mislead. Good one to file away and dig out every 3rd weekend in May.
GL JBEX !

[JBEX]

I tried comparing works as babies train together always within an outfit. But not these two. They were in different sets or groups. Doesn't look like they ever worked together, at least not in the past couple of months. If you look at Bernie Houghton's 2 entries, they worked together each time. See what I mean? Bernie made it a point to keep his together and not let either one draw away. That makes sense and is often implemented. But, chances are one was more in hand than the other. Looks like Bernie could be showing his hand with the rider selections. We will have to see.

But back to your horse, everything you mentioned is what I look for to make a determination on babies as best I can. Outside post is certainly a plus for the other Servis horse as long as the track is fair, hopefully, but it is cold these days and the track is typically graded much more often, even everyday because by now they have added more cushion while winterizing the track. More cushion means more room for error during the winter.
Kate's firster probably runs 5th but watch that one for start number 3. Your selection is bred for speed up and down as well as running well first time out. While the other horse outside is a challenge, the money will show on that one for sure. Yours should want to be forwardly placed early with a decent chance to run very well. I'm good with that. And Allens Prospect yes, real solid sire back in the day and plenty of his offspring showed speed.
The PA Bred program has come a very long way. It was a joke back in the day. Not anymore.

Also, on a previous post I mentioned the Miss Preakness Stakes and not being able to close from well back early and wide in that race. That is true but didn't want to say that the outside post was not good. It can be, but horses just struggle to rally wide and from far back in sprints on Preakness day. The track typically favors speed AND more importantly, rail on that day and the day before. They grade it quite a bit Thursday night so it will be fine both days weather permitting. But Pimlico does not have the same pitch angle as Laurel, thus it takes dirt longer to filter back down to the rail, therefore favoring inside and typically speed.
That is what I meant with that comment. I didn't want to mislead. Good one to file away and dig out every 3rd weekend in May.
GL JBEX !

see what you mean with houghton's 2 horses..exact same times for both but even then as you said one could be doing it easier than the other and he did kind of tip his hat with rider selection..funny I like the one with the lesser jockey's pedigree..better first out sire ,dam productive and tremendous with 2yo winners..lower ml also kind of interesting ..both owned and bred by the same entity..I agree pa breds have come a long way although I think purses at parx have come down a lot in recent years


get what you're saying regarding outside posts at pim on preakness day..it's more about getting to the front vs post position


thanks str

[JBEX]

hey str


1st shot at the ky derby futures today and fun to take an early position now..Pretty much a rhetorical question but figure I'd throw it at you anyway

#3 commandperformance
(29-1 @ 9am)

obviously first 2 efforts solid .. 2nd in saratoga debut followed by a 2nd in the champagne..the
2 horses in the futures who finished ahead of him both had their first route experience in the previous race ..mine was coming off the 1 turn champagne at belmont..pretty big disadvantage to be trying two turns for the first time in the breeders cup ,don't you think ? didn't run horrible

while I'm sure they would have liked to win the juvenile these long time big pletcher clients really more interested in down the road..solid route pedigree top and bottom so certainly bred to do it


not running this weekend so price will probably be around what it is now

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/future-wager/derby-pool-1

[JBEX]

hey str


1st shot at the ky derby futures today and fun to take an early position now..Pretty much a rhetorical question but figure I'd throw it at you anyway

#3 commandperformance
(29-1 @ 9am)

obviously first 2 efforts solid .. 2nd in saratoga debut followed by a 2nd in the champagne..the
2 horses in the futures who finished ahead of him both had their first route experience in the previous race ..mine was coming off the 1 turn champagne at belmont..pretty big disadvantage to be trying two turns for the first time in the breeders cup ,don't you think ? didn't run horrible

while I'm sure they would have liked to win the juvenile these long time big pletcher clients really more interested in down the road..solid route pedigree top and bottom so certainly bred to do it


not running this weekend so price will probably be around what it is now



https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/...r/derby-pool-1

also worth mentioning the brisnet pace and final figs
for the juvenile were well above average

[str]

hey str


1st shot at the ky derby futures today and fun to take an early position now..Pretty much a rhetorical question but figure I'd throw it at you anyway

#3 commandperformance
(29-1 @ 9am)

obviously first 2 efforts solid .. 2nd in saratoga debut followed by a 2nd in the champagne..the
2 horses in the futures who finished ahead of him both had their first route experience in the previous race ..mine was coming off the 1 turn champagne at belmont..pretty big disadvantage to be trying two turns for the first time in the breeders cup ,don't you think ? didn't run horrible

while I'm sure they would have liked to win the juvenile these long time big pletcher clients really more interested in down the road..solid route pedigree top and bottom so certainly bred to do it


not running this weekend so price will probably be around what it is now



https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/...r/derby-pool-1

Futures can be a lot of fun in all the sports early on. They are sooo hard to hit though. As you know, you can get a ton of excitement and entertainment out of a small play.
I do like the fact that you are chasing 30-1. IMO, it's about the only way to do them. At least you know that the entire focus is on the Derby.

That first time at 2 turns was a pretty big disadvantage and the horse ran a credible race. I think your explanation on the play is sound. And sure, the Derby is the number one target, not the BC Juvenile. It makes sense. And if you only hit one every twenty years you are still well ahead of the game. Sounds reasonable to me.
Thanks for sharing.
GL JBEX.

[JBEX]

Futures can be a lot of fun in all the sports early on. They are sooo hard to hit though. As you know, you can get a ton of excitement and entertainment out of a small play.
I do like the fact that you are chasing 30-1. IMO, it's about the only way to do them. At least you know that the entire focus is on the Derby.

That first time at 2 turns was a pretty big disadvantage and the horse ran a credible race. I think your explanation on the play is sound. And sure, the Derby is the number one target, not the BC Juvenile. It makes sense. And if you only hit one every twenty years you are still well ahead of the game. Sounds reasonable to me.
Thanks for sharing.
GL JBEX.

np str

got a little ride ,no pun, out of one last year and just that makes it worthwhile ..glad you like the pick and hopefully he stays healthy..
no question you've got to get some odds..still sitting at around what he was yesterday


thanks for the feedback

[JBEX]

hey str



going forward from here with mine ..he's not entered in the remsen next saturday (at least not a probable)

holy bull and fountain of youth on same days as withers and gotham

former both @ 8.5 with withers and gotham 9f and a mile respectively


do you think the ny path a turnoff going from two turns to one in the gotham ? how about withers to wood memorial and skipping the gotham..to me that doesn't make sense


if they decide on gulfstream do you think they'd be more likely to skip the holy bull as it would mean less to owners who are used to having big horses..a win or good effort in the foy sets them up nicely for the florida derby..understand what's best for the horse factors into it also

btw I'm not trying to toot my own horn here but rather understand what the thought process might be

[str]

hey str



going forward from here with mine ..he's not entered in the remsen next saturday (at least not a probable)

holy bull and fountain of youth on same days as withers and gotham

former both @ 8.5 with withers and gotham 9f and a mile respectively


do you think the ny path a turnoff going from two turns to one in the gotham ? how about withers to wood memorial and skipping the gotham..to me that doesn't make sense


if they decide on gulfstream do you think they'd be more likely to skip the holy bull as it would mean less to owners who are used to having big horses..a win or good effort in the foy sets them up nicely for the florida derby..understand what's best for the horse factors into it also

btw I'm not trying to toot my own horn here but rather understand what the thought process might be

I totally get that you are not tooting a horn but trying to understand a process. Most of your questions lean in that direction which is why I enjoy them. I've always been big on "why" and what all goes with that.

In this case, he is still a maiden. There are a ton of possibilities because of that. Todd has to figure out exactly how many horses he has that are pointing for the Derby. Then, he will map out races to get there. I would assume that this horse, with all his upside, would go to Florida. I would assume a MSW would be ideal because he will buy extra time by running earlier in the month. There is also Tampa to consider. He does that every year as well I think?

He might need 3 starts before the Derby but because of all his conditions, he can go MSW, Allow. , Stake, Derby if he wants or needs to. Or anything in between.

My take is, he has not experienced winning yet. That was always something Mr. Whiteley (he was much younger in your avatar than when I knew him) talked about. So did Bud with Bid. My mentor was really big on that. If I was in that position I would look back and rely on what all three preached.
It would sound something like this: "You got to know HOW to win and how to WANT to win and BOTH come with experiencing it".

A ton of options whereas some of the others don't have that and will be limited to the ones you spoke about.

With the weather such a huge factor training ( or not) in NY, I can't see him happy about that with a horse like this with all that upside as well as conditions. I guess it becomes a numbers game for him with all his horses but at least with this one, he can pick more spots than some of the other horses are eligible for.

[JBEX]

I totally get that you are not tooting a horn but trying to understand a process. Most of your questions lean in that direction which is why I enjoy them. I've always been big on "why" and what all goes with that.

In this case, he is still a maiden. There are a ton of possibilities because of that. Todd has to figure out exactly how many horses he has that are pointing for the Derby. Then, he will map out races to get there. I would assume that this horse, with all his upside, would go to Florida. I would assume a MSW would be ideal because he will buy extra time by running earlier in the month. There is also Tampa to consider. He does that every year as well I think?

He might need 3 starts before the Derby but because of all his conditions, he can go MSW, Allow. , Stake, Derby if he wants or needs to. Or anything in between.

My take is, he has not experienced winning yet. That was always something Mr. Whiteley (he was much younger in your avatar than when I knew him) talked about. So did Bud with Bid. My mentor was really big on that. If I was in that position I would look back and rely on what all three preached.
It would sound something like this: "You got to know HOW to win and how to WANT to win and BOTH come with experiencing it".

A ton of options whereas some of the others don't have that and will be limited to the ones you spoke about.

With the weather such a huge factor training ( or not) in NY, I can't see him happy about that with a horse like this with all that upside as well as conditions. I guess it becomes a numbers game for him with all his horses but at least with this one, he can pick more spots than some of the other horses are eligible for.

wasn't thinking about the tampa path but that certainly is a possibility.. pretty sure you're right about todd running there with some of his prospects


dismissed running VS msw because I figured they'd want to keep him going vs top competition.. does makes sense to me that the experience of winning is important.. can't get that from more knowledgeable sources than the trainers you mentioned

as you said florida makes sense as there's more potential for bad weather in NY..lots of path options with him being a maiden and hopefully the horse remains sound and gets an opportunity


thanks str

[JBEX]

todd talks about 7 of his better horses including a few running on cigar mile day this saturday.. one of them is commandperformance (not running on saturday) and he seems very optimistic ..written on tuesday so it's fresh info

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Barn_Tour_Check_out_Pletcher_s_plans_for_7_prominent_horses_123

[JBEX]

hey str

delta

R9 #6 miss e fu (9-2) 5:40

concerns me a little that after a 4 month layoff they waited another 6 weeks to run her again..then 7 weeks up to this race .. works have been swift leading up to today's race..
does that spacing bother you for today's race and her last race ? maybe there's only so many spots available in this condition..like the horse for many reasons from a capping perspective


If you don't get to it before post time like your opinion anyway