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he has a good clock in his head knows how to rate front runners..Plus knows the great race place as good as anyone... Joel and Sadler combo are extra dangerous too if you ever see...Some of my old fav jocks where known for closing style like Mark Gudiry and Eddie Delahoussaye but on fron where just as dangerous...I'll probably include anything at any price the Ortiz Bro's and Joel are on in horizontalsComment -
Thank you for the link.
I had the pleasure of knowing Dick Jerardi when he worked in Maryland prior to going up to Philadelphia.
What a great guy !
A lot of you folks here would really like him.
Funny, smart, and called it like he saw it.
He really knew the game back then and still does I'm sure.
Helluva smart handicapper.
One of my favorites in the newspaper business locally back in the day.
I have not been a fan of Beyers figures but that is not to say they did not have a purpose. IMO they were a real nice tool for Andy, and worked well for major races and probably for major tracks for a time. But a high school buddy of mine and I found clear holes in them at lesser tracks like for instance, CharlesTown. I'm not complaining though as they led to again, IMO, many a false favorite or more accurately, many an overlay. We kind of used them against themselves. I worked very well but I had very limited time in which to bet within them. Just had too much work to do. But he didn't. And he killed it , as best you could with those smaller pools. Probably still can but I don't know for sure.Last edited by str; 10-17-19, 07:46 AM.Comment -
As for the switch to Joel from Mike Smith, I cannot have an opinion. I just do not watch Joel nearly enough to know him as a rider other than the fact that I do know he is really really solid. I will say that sometimes you don't have to be a send um type to fit well on a speed horse. But, you do need to be more active even if it is very subtle. The relationship from the rider to the horses brain flows through the bit, the hands, and the feel. I suppose that any change can't hurt because it just was not working as well as it should have with Smith.
The horse should improve with a change of rider if Smith was not connecting as well as he might have and there should be more pace than his last race had. But my question about him is the distance. Just don't get the feeling he wants that long a race. Also have to worry about a bias which shows up for big events plenty often. Lots to chew on.Comment -
hey str
in R6 at keeneland (nothing to do with capping this race) you have a horse with 7 career starts.. talented 3yo filly.. 3 starts back and 2nd start of the year she tries a 2 turn msw at churchill with a $95k purse.. breaking from the 10 post (outermost) she runs 2nd losing by less than a length.. back 6 weeks later she shows up at arlingtion for same type of race but this time purse is $30k ouch!! wins easy at 2/5.. so how do you make up for that .. ship to kentucky downs 5 weeks later and win a n1x (still turf route) with a $145k purse.. pretty interesting sequence wouldn't you say lolComment -
Here you go, in the 2nd @ belmont on Friday.
the #1 Barbara P for James Ferraro (underrated horsemen btw) Hasn't raced since April 17th 2019, has since worked 4/30 (13 days later) , 5/14, 5/28, 6/3 , 8/23, 8/30, 9/8, 9/20, 9/28/ & 10/1... Im sure something happened between june and august but this is type of info I wish they would share to the player. Clearly horse wasn't hurt after last race and either got hurt or sick over the summer, but that info is important to me.Comment -
I want to ask what I need to get involved in the other side of the game down the road.
But I know that’s a book response, and plus it’s probably unrealistic so don’t want to waste your time. I see they have all these new platforms where can you buy in groups for as low as $100 lol. I saw 125 people on tv at Belmont last week hoping to get their picture taken with prob 1/100000 of a share.
I would imagine it would simply start in the claiming game, being of low means.
But it’s not like I can put a claim in (win the drawing) that is how it works if multiple trying to claim right?
Then pick up the phone and call up some of favorite trainers lol
And clearly I would need license , a barn , Employees , or would the trainer handle that?
You know I’m not as dumb as I sound right now,
but down the road , I’d love nothing more to be involved in.
Maybe strike a few good claimers for a few years, and buy a few yearlings couple years down roadLast edited by Louisvillekid1; 10-17-19, 07:12 PM.Comment -
Assuming that the work on 8/23 was 3/8ths or an easy 1/2, it probably took 30-40 days of galloping to achieve that. Working backwards, the horse was off about 4-5 weeks. Anything that caused that is well behind the horse now. I would not consider it while handicapping its 1st race back. See how it does off time, as well as the trainer, see the spot it lands, and see if all that fits. Disregard the old works or the short time off.
It probably does not matter what happened but do check the shoe board that day. See if the horse runs in a bar shoe. Most likely a Broken foot if so, not a problem now. There IS a nerved list of all horses nerved as that has to be reported and made public. I know it is in the racing Sec. office but probably online as well.
Only the bar shoe itself can be a problem. Cuppy track, probably will struggle for traction. Muddy track, will probably scratch because Mud can suck that shoe off and that could mess up the wall of the foot. Traction typically not the best either with that on.
Might have gotten sick. If so, again, that is probably behind the horse now. You can also check the weight of the horse if they post that. Compare it to the last reported weight.
Or. 1st time lasix. Might have bled badly? Could be a lot of things Kid.
Bottom line, if the horse runs well off of time and the trainer does well off time, chances are the horse is going to run well. If it's the opposite, probably need a race.
Keep me posted.Comment -
All of this starts with where you live being as I assume you would want to be directly involved in order to experience the game itself. By that I mean, go to the barn in the morning some. Feed the horse some carrots. See and feel the game behind the scenes. Meet the grooms, hot walkers, exercise riders, trainer, and FEEL the game.
Second, affordability. You have to decide how much money to set aside for the horse.
From all that I have heard, I would NOT suggest one of those large partnerships. I have seen the letters they blast out to all the people that own into a syndicate and quite frankly, they are mostly filled with B.S. and 1/2 truths or phony nonsense, none of which put a nickel into your pocket. They get everyone's hopes up, and IMO, are mostly crap . I say mostly because I have to think that somewhere, they are genuine. But the ones I have read are pathetic, but you would not know that without knowing the game from the inside, which is nothing like what you know from the outside.
Many of these syndicates buy multiple horses at the yearling sales, get them home, spend some time with them, and cull the ones that do not stand out into these partnerships. No, that does not happen every time, but trusting a complete stranger with your money rarely works well right? Heck, you know me better than you will know them. I would not recommend that at all.
I would say to have enough to claim a horse. I would stay far away from any baby.
If you want to pursue that, I can find you a trainer that you will have a shot with if you like, especially in Maryland. But I would definitely do it where you can go and visit the horse, trainer and barn area on a Saturday or something like that. I think I know you well enough to know that you want to learn about the backside as much as own a horse. Maybe I'm wrong, if so, please tell me.Comment -
it's a little interesting, but probably a bit of a reach, that after the very unremarkable wire to wire maiden win at arlington she went of at 7-2 in the allowance race at KD in a 12 horse field ... probably based on the prior good effort(s) at churchill downs..big step up from a msw at arlington to an allowance at the downs..but bottomline that's about the most extreme move from a good effort in a big purse msw to win at a smaller purse one next start that I ever remember seeingComment -
just saw tvg interview bill boniface about maryland millions day tomorrow..seen his name a lot over the years along with bonita farm which I believe he owns ? you ever run in a millions race and any tips on playing the card ?Comment -
Q. just saw tvg interview bill boniface about maryland millions day tomorrow..seen his name a lot over the years along with bonita farm which I believe he owns ?
A. Yep. He does own Bonita Farm. He's gotta be getting up there in years. I mean, I was the youngest guy around and I am. Lol.
Q. you ever run in a millions race
A. I ran a some of those and won one back in the day.
As for tips, I am actually going there today as one of my group of guys from cutting school and going to the track days owns one. He asked me to come watch the race so I said I would. That is the 2 year old filly race. It's the 7th race. Anybody from SBR going today?
I was there last Tuesday for a celebration of Life for a longtime friend, former employee and the best person I ever saw ride a horse. His name was Charlie Linton. Among other things, he was a head outrider in Md. for many years back in the 70's, 80's and 90's. He was one of those people that never gets the attention of the fans or the media but without people like him, racing would not exist. He was one of a kind and while I say that alot, honestly, you could never make up some of the stories that come from people like him. Helluva guy.
Over the years, there have been some years where the rail was a big advantage but typically it is pretty fair for all the horses.Comment -
MAE NEVER NO (IRE)
3 B F (IRE) No Nay Never - Sweet Shirley Mae
there is another winner Keenland from sire No Nay NeverComment -
American Pharoaho filly ORSAY in maiden race belmont chad brown 3/5 horrible 3rd looks like a need the lead type LOL the sire so far is a bustComment -
Str- first, I wanted to thank you for this thread. I don’t post much most but have learned a lot from you throughout the years in this thread.
I’ve got a question that I’ve been thinking about recently and have not had any luck coming up with a rational answer.
There’s a filly that ran Friday night at Charlestown in the 6th race “won lil Indian”. She’s technically still a maiden by record 0 for 8 but has ran against non2s the last three races since finishing 2nd in a maiden race on July 6th at Ellis and there is no published disqualification. The only thought that I’ve had is that there might be a pending ruling against the winner of the July 6 maiden race by the Kentucky racing commission but haven’t found any information if that is the case.
I believe one of my partners made an offer on the filly over the weekend, but if we don’t have the maiden condition, it drastically reduces what we can do with her.
Any thoughts on what might be going on?
any insight would be greatly appreciated.Comment -
You are welcome. I hope it has helped.
It does seem to be a pending ruling . In that maiden race apparently there was a bad start for several horses. My best guess is someone is appealing the race. It could also be a positive on the winner but typically that comes back quickly as a result and DQ through a ruling and then it is appealed.
You can call the Kent. horse racing comm. for clarity. That is what I would do if interested in obtaining the horse. Just google it and a number will come up.
Looks like the horse can win that 5k race and probably a nw/3 for a nickel. They do write a nw/4 for 5k also and in time she could probably win that. Hopefully some 2nds along the way to help pay the bills. After that, unless she improves, which she might, it might be tough.
What did they offer for her if I may ask? Hard to believe they would sell for 5k unless the horse has problems. They do not manage her like she does. I would assume they would want 7500 or 8k.
If you don't mind, let me know. There is a way to help hedge claiming her next out for 5k if that becomes the alternative. That way if she does win and lose the condition, at least all is not lost. If you are interested, let me know.Comment -
Thanks for the prompt reply.
We’ve been in contact with Mr Tomlinson on this filly a few different times going back to before the July 6 maiden race. A friend of ours had the dam at the end of her career and that’s what drew our attention to her.
We primarily race in the Midwest (Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota and Oklahoma) and are upfront with anyone we’re potentially dealing with about where we need to be as most of our horses are in Nebraska and Iowa and the purses aren’t the best. We typically are looking for maidens and non 2Ls that will find the competition a bit easier and might have lost the interest of the current ownership. I’m going to assume he offered in the $3,000-$4,000 range (which is undervalued after how she ran Friday night) but this is probably where we would have been prior to the race. I obviously don’t see that number working and we’ll probably let him run her back in a few weeks.
I’d definitely be interested in help hedging if we do decide to tag her next out.
Thanks.Comment -
Yeah. She probably ran a little too well. But maybe she runs a lesser effort next out. If not, you have made a contact for a future sale maybe.
As for the hedge, let me tell you now so you can use it when and if you wanted to. It's pretty simple.
Let's say the horse is in for 5k nw/2 and you want to claim it. You definitely want it to lose so as to keep the condition. Hopefully by a nose but you know what I mean. So you start to do the math on 5k to buy + 250.00 tax , then see how much the purse is and what it will potentially cost you (or the final bottom line once all the conditions are run through) if it does win and you do lose the condition.
So let's just say that the purse would be 4k to the winner ( insert the real purse amount minus the 10%'s to trainer and rider etc., so the true NET .) Let's say using 4k to the winner that the actual amount becomes 3200.00, ( 20% paid out off the top). What you can do is similar to buying insurance. You figure out an amount of money that it will take to win 3200.00 by betting the horse you are claiming to win in that race the day you are claiming it. If you can bet any of that amount or all off shore or at a casino where the money is not put into the pool, that is optimal being as it does not affect the actual pool. But you have to be able to be paid so careful there. The horses payoff price will determine the amount you put in and obviously betting on a huge favorite is not what is most desirable. But if you were claiming 3-1 shot it would potentially pay 8.00 . That means for 1000.00 to win, if it wins, you get back 4k minus the 1k you bet and you have recouped 3k. If it loses, you make it back up on winning the purse when it wins the condition you hoped to retain. That 1000 becomes part of the bottom line.
So the question becomes, would you pay 1k to make sure the horse did not win and blow the condition? If so, make the bet. If not, let it run and hope on hope that it does not win. Or bet a lesser amount that fits into what you would pay to retain the condition.
I do realize that at smaller tracks the pools are small so you have to be creative. My claims as you probably know were usually in Maryland. So the pools were big enough usually that if an owner wanted to do this, they could. Nowadays with off shore and casinos, it's even better I'm sure, IF you can trust the place.
Remember, this is NOT betting. I do not look at this as betting at all. It is strictly buying insurance within a business venture . And I will say that I rarely if ever did it personally but I did have owners that wanted to do it. All I did was tell them how to do it. But if you do it, you cannot put yourself in any position to win but not cash, like selecting only some other horses to finish off daily doubles or exactas. You have to be able to do the math quickly and late so as to wheel in the win position the amounts that you need for each other horse to complete the daily double or exacta based on each horses payouts. Spreading throughout a few pools will help dilute the money throughout smaller pools. But again, you must be covered everywhere. You can not win and somehow not get paid. THAT is gambling, THIS is insurance. It has to pay out correctly. Now hopefully the horse you are claiming is more like 5-1 or 8-1 and not a favorite, thus having to bet less by gaining better value. As a favorite, there is a line that is too much risk for too little reward. In that scenario, it becomes not worth it in my mind. Or, you have to settle to not recoup as much thus buying less insurance. Under these terms you can become over insured just like when really having true insurance.
This might not be for you and if not, that's ok. Like I said, some people like it and some including me didn't find the need to do it very much. But I did want to bring it to your attention. If you are like me, I wanted every tool I could have in the tool box.
If any of that does not make sense, please let me know and good luck finding horses that fit into your program.Comment -
hey str
I was wondering what you thought about omaha beach coming up to the breeders cup mile.. for starters let me say I understand richard mandella is a hall of fame trainer and have all the respect in the world for him.. but from a bettors point of view he will be the hype horse and doubtful they'll be any value there.. do you like a horse going to a 2 turn mile off a very hard earned g1 sprint win? I'm guessing that was the plan with a win or a good effort but just seems like kind of a harsh transition to make vs top grade 1 milersComment -
I have wierd feeling
baffert might shock with Omaha beach and McKenzie
nothing to do with handicapping
horse player instinctComment -
Can somebody show str
joel’s ride on in the 3rd yesterday
and have I wanna hear from str
Joel Rosario is top 6-7 imo in NY , some say top 5 in the world
he has so many great rides but misses so many from bad timing
I swear Joel has more losses by a neck than anymore
and prob more wins by a nose than anyone
and is strong on front end
but this ride cost me life changing money
wtf is wrong with him
str, you know it’s all love, and I struggle sometimes
but am I wrong?
And not just this ride specifically
I see it daily
he’s kinda like pat day in a way
but bottom line
my fav riders don’t do this
he does it ALL THE TIME... and everybody gives him a pass
yes he missed break , fine , but zero chance after he checked was gonna win
so let her go Atleast right ???
prob wouldn’t of won
but man zero speed in race and I thought wire jobComment -
Guess please post replay for str
someone look me out
I can’t copy link from nyraComment -
I swear i felt like going joe Pesci, easy money -eskeComment -
Str I’m sick
sorry for blowing up
but this makes me sick
im hoping you put me in place and tell me why !!!
but I see Joel doing this all the time
I could be bias
but man oh man , I hate thisComment
