Thanks EZ !
Horse Racing questions and answers
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strSBR Posting Legend
- 01-12-09
- 11560
#3921Having known the families so well and watched these two make career's for themselves is really cool to see. I shared barns with both parents through the years and my youngest son went to high school with Maggie back in the day. I cannot tell you how happy I am not only for the girls but for Linda, Gabby's mom and Howard and Tammy, Maggie's parents. They are so proud of their daughters and boy does it show in their faces when someone mentions them. Another really cool thing to see.
Thanks EZ !Comment -
Easy-Rider 66BARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 02-14-12
- 36084
#3922Having known the families so well and watched these two make career's for themselves is really cool to see. I shared barns with both parents through the years and my youngest son went to high school with Maggie back in the day. I cannot tell you how happy I am not only for the girls but for Linda, Gabby's mom and Howard and Tammy, Maggie's parents. They are so proud of their daughters and boy does it show in their faces when someone mentions them. Another really cool thing to see.
Thanks EZ !Comment -
strSBR Posting Legend
- 01-12-09
- 11560
#392327 years in the same place, you know everyone. But in this case, we were the same age, growing in the game at the same time, and it was the mid- late 70's. The young people hung out together at parties and things like softball leagues, basketball leagues, etc. Whew. Good times.Comment -
JBEXSBR Posting Legend
- 01-02-12
- 23089
#3924In those cases of firsters or horses that have only run once, the rider really is not nearly as important as they are with experienced horses.
If there is one area where the quality of rider makes less difference than any other area, it's with firsters or 2nd time starters. This is because if the horse is not mentally as well as physically ready to perform well, the rider won't matter who is on the horse. Maybe that is what your stat is pointing to.
Conversely, if the horse is sitting on ready, doesn't it seem like no matter who the pilot is, they just pretty much sit there and enjoy the ride? That's because that is indeed the case very often.
Now the exception might be that if 2 horses are in the same race and both are all set to deliver 1st out, maybe that has a hand in the better rider winning, but that does not happen all that often. In most cases of this particular kind, it's the horse not the rider.
Let's face it, if a horse runs green, it doesn't matter how good the rider is, that rider will have to ride defensively because they can feel the apprehensive effort under them, just like we feel a car we are driving that hesitates because of bad gas, carburetor or whatever. And at least in a car, you don't worry about it steering itself through the fence at some point. With a green baby, you do.
So I think that what you are seeing is just about all on the horse and not on the rider. It's the horse being apprehensive, and the rider feeling that and then also becoming apprehensive.
One thing to watch for is when the same rider stays on that apprehensive mount even though they ran green 1st time. Most top riders will tell their agent to get them off that horse after the race. But when you see them ride the horse back, and see the blinkers go on and a quick work in between, THAT is something to really sink your teeth into. They don't all win, but enough do with one or two poor efforts and a sudden change and more often than not, the rider was either on the horse in the morning or is well aware of the sudden focus prior to getting back on the horse. Once they start to warm up, if what was said is true, the rider will feel it warming up because the horse will feel completely different, just like that old car would with a new carburetor, and the confidence will transfer from horse to rider as well as rider to horse. And just like that, you have a nice price with that equipment change. That change can not only be blinkers but can also be 1st time gelding. Another thing to take a second look at.
Yes, there are things can attribute to a sudden change that the public will not be able to read that can also make for a sudden change, but nobody will have ALL the info ALL the time. So I guess the thing to do when it's a bunch of firsters in not try and look at the race the way the average handicapper looks at most races but instead look at those races with firsters or lightly raced horses from a different angle all together. I know that a lot of players will simply pass these races because they feel they do not know enough to have an opinion. And if they are relying on form alone, they cannot possibly have much to go on. But a different approach even just a mental bet until you gain confidence, might help in the long run. ( I do realize that you JBEX, read the types of races much differently than most but I wanted to help anybody that reads this as well).
Hope this does help reaffirm your stats as well as show others why these types of races can be approached, but usually best from a different angle. Please follow up if necessary.
so maybe the "n/a" bad stats are worth following on those few good/excellent jocks.. think more opportunities are with the others you talked about..the debuters or very lightly raced horse where the top jockeys stay aboard or switch to that particular horse.. there was a $725k second time starter who was making his 2nd start and castellano was either on in first start or switched to him.. showed speed to the half and didn't give it up horribly in debut (finished mid pack) in a route race.. finished 4th by less than two lengths @ about 8-1 in a big field (another route of course).. 1st 3 finishers in order 46-1/45-1/24-1 lol.. so guess have to consider that a fluke thing and a solid effort..definitely one of my favorite angles 1st three or 4 starts (2-4) show a smidgen of talent (not closing with a bad trip to come in the money.. too obvious) and stick with that horse for a few starts as long as the good jockey stays aboard or steps aboard for the 1st time.. thanks strComment -
JBEXSBR Posting Legend
- 01-02-12
- 23089
#3925couple of nice things come together in the last (R11) at gulfstream (1 1/16 turf).. a $750k first time starter from chad brown (#1 north broadway 7-2) but this is"4 and up"so fact she's starting this late probably not the best sign (we've discussed before).. also johnny v one of those jocks you take a huge beating with on "n/a''s".. the rail on the turf never easy for a first time starter and its worse than avg place to be at gulfstream besides.. like factoring price #5 perfect view (15-1)Comment -
strSBR Posting Legend
- 01-12-09
- 11560
#3926couple of nice things come together in the last (R11) at gulfstream (1 1/16 turf).. a $750k first time starter from chad brown (#1 north broadway 7-2) but this is"4 and up"so fact she's starting this late probably not the best sign (we've discussed before).. also johnny v one of those jocks you take a huge beating with on "n/a''s".. the rail on the turf never easy for a first time starter and its worse than avg place to be at gulfstream besides.. like factoring price #5 perfect view (15-1)
Probably the lader with his training style.
If he’s bet down, an easy play against looking for a price IMO.Comment -
littlekonaSBR Hall of Famer
- 11-19-15
- 5242
#3927
To me the gulfstream turf course looks horrid...patchy with kick back ect ect....the tampa course looks so much better and ive seen a number of Tampa turf shippers pop at decent prices...Comment -
SBR_Guest_ProSBR MVP
- 02-10-15
- 3955
#3928some good answers here. thanks guysComment -
Easy-Rider 66BARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 02-14-12
- 36084
#3929Bob Baffert, Hall of Fame trainer of Pegasus contender Mucho Gusto: “Lasix is probably more important in dirt racing because of the kickback. We have a lot of kickback. In turf racing, they don't need Lasix on turf because there's no kickback. It's going to be interesting. Everybody seems to be leaning that way. It never entered my thought about worrying about that part of it.”
Hey STR: The Pegasus is being run medication free on SAT. Do you agree with the sentiments expressed here by Baffert on Lasix being more important for dirt racing? THx.Comment -
Louisvillekid1SBR Aristocracy
- 10-17-07
- 52143
#3930Hey str
hope all is well
sorry I ain’t been around
but I gotta Ask
I had a $200 Late double in ny
1/1
If you can peep the replay of the finale @ AQU
junior has been on a great run , but what was he doing holding that left rein so tight at the turn???
Then he released it crazy late
—- anyway much love the family , and everything you do hereComment -
Easy-Rider 66BARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 02-14-12
- 36084
#3931good to see you back posting LKID1. GL if playing Pegasus tomorrow.Comment -
Louisvillekid1SBR Aristocracy
- 10-17-07
- 52143
#3932Hey str
hope all is well
sorry I ain’t been around
but I gotta Ask
I had a $200 Late double in ny
1/1
If you can peep the replay of the finale @ AQU
junior has been on a great run , but what was he doing holding that left rein so tight at the turn???
Then he released it crazy late
—- anyway much love the family , and everything you do here
I just didn’t understand juniors grip on the left reinComment -
Louisvillekid1SBR Aristocracy
- 10-17-07
- 52143
-
Easy-Rider 66BARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 02-14-12
- 36084
-
Louisvillekid1SBR Aristocracy
- 10-17-07
- 52143
#3935A friend of mine bred Untilted , out of Kozhan
Had 6 bidders
Pletcher , brown , etc
he flipped him to mark Casse
for $500k
plus 20% purses and 20% breeding rights
Casse running him in the swale
he wanted the holy bull
but really cool this horse is only 1/1
won by 11 dec 14th in Florida
and my boy only had Like $60k to start
Ralph nicks was OG trainerComment -
strSBR Posting Legend
- 01-12-09
- 11560
#3938Hey str
hope all is well
sorry I ain’t been around
but I gotta Ask
I had a $200 Late double in ny
1/1
If you can peep the replay of the finale @ AQU
junior has been on a great run , but what was he doing holding that left rein so tight at the turn???
Then he released it crazy late
—- anyway much love the family , and everything you do here
As they hit the wire, the horse maintains a straight path even though he does take some pressure off with the left hand. Because of that, and without a head on, I cannot say for sure. And without knowing the rider better, I cannot say how active his left arm typically is.
Wish I could tell you more. I'm a bit confused on this one Kid. Sorry about that.
Great to hear from you.
All the best.Comment -
JBEXSBR Posting Legend
- 01-02-12
- 23089
#3939A friend of mine bred Untilted , out of Kozhan
Had 6 bidders
Pletcher , brown , etc
he flipped him to mark Casse
for $500k
plus 20% purses and 20% breeding rights
Casse running him in the swale
he wanted the holy bull
but really cool this horse is only 1/1
won by 11 dec 14th in Florida
and my boy only had Like $60k to start
Ralph nicks was OG trainer
wow what a score that is.. seen that stallion around and looked him up.. half to royal delta by distorted humor which you probably know.. nice pedigreeComment -
strSBR Posting Legend
- 01-12-09
- 11560
#3940Bob Baffert, Hall of Fame trainer of Pegasus contender Mucho Gusto: “Lasix is probably more important in dirt racing because of the kickback. We have a lot of kickback. In turf racing, they don't need Lasix on turf because there's no kickback. It's going to be interesting. Everybody seems to be leaning that way. It never entered my thought about worrying about that part of it.”
Hey STR: The Pegasus is being run medication free on SAT. Do you agree with the sentiments expressed here by Baffert on Lasix being more important for dirt racing? THx.
I should know in a few days and will respond asap.
Thanks for your understanding.Comment -
strSBR Posting Legend
- 01-12-09
- 11560
#3941Bob Baffert, Hall of Fame trainer of Pegasus contender Mucho Gusto: “Lasix is probably more important in dirt racing because of the kickback. We have a lot of kickback. In turf racing, they don't need Lasix on turf because there's no kickback. It's going to be interesting. Everybody seems to be leaning that way. It never entered my thought about worrying about that part of it.”
Hey STR: The Pegasus is being run medication free on SAT. Do you agree with the sentiments expressed here by Baffert on Lasix being more important for dirt racing? THx.
The reason I went to the lengths I did to speak to them about your question was to make sure some miracle discovery had not been found since I left . Long story short, no miracle discovery.
If indeed that was his quote it only further strengthens my opinion that he often says whatever serves his agenda with no regard for the truth.
When I read it, the 1st thing I thought about was why would he pick on the turf horses? And then a second later I realized that he does not seem to run much on the turf. Looks like he starts 9 dirt horses to every 1 turf horse.
Secondly, it might be the only way he can stop Chad Brown from winning eclipse awards instead of himself.
This entire quote is shameful in my opinion EZ. "Everybody's leaning that way"? LOL. "It never entered my thought about worrying about that part of it"? Then why do you know that everyone is leaning that way? Unreal.
One of those I spoke with said, do you know how to tell when he is lying? I said no, how? He said, his lips are moving.
I couldn't have said it better myself.
Hope that helps EZ.Comment -
Easy-Rider 66BARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 02-14-12
- 36084
#3942OK STR. thx for the take. Yeah was going to pm you in a couple of days as I thought you may have overlooked the question. Thx for double checking and I got that quote off the Paulick report so hopefully it's accurate.Comment -
JBEXSBR Posting Legend
- 01-02-12
- 23089
#3943hey str
from a betting standpoint.. back in your day were there some trainers who were perennial 6-9% guys who would on occasion via the claim, private purchase acquisition or trainer change really surprise the betting public every now and then...guess what I'm saying is were you aware of this beforehand and might be interested in a horse they're sending out first time.. whether you would actually play them is secondary but just an awareness that on occasion this trainer can turn things around with a shaky form horseComment -
strSBR Posting Legend
- 01-12-09
- 11560
#3944hey str
from a betting standpoint.. back in your day were there some trainers who were perennial 6-9% guys who would on occasion via the claim, private purchase acquisition or trainer change really surprise the betting public every now and then...guess what I'm saying is were you aware of this beforehand and might be interested in a horse they're sending out first time.. whether you would actually play them is secondary but just an awareness that on occasion this trainer can turn things around with a shaky form horse
One thing that kind of separated me from a lot of the trainers in Md. at the time was my age. Back then most trainers were in their 40s,50s and 60's or older . Several were younger but it was unheard of to start out at 21 years old with claimers and active in the claiming game like I was.
I remember winning my first race and the old timers in the press box were saying I was the youngest trainer to win in Md. that they could remember. No idea if that is true but that shows you how young I was compared to the others. And because of that, I was doing some " cutting edge" Lol, things at the time that not many did. I really paid close attention to other trainers as to their strengths and weaknesses as I saw them. I knew of one other trainer that did that. It was my mentor and I took it way past what he was doing. After all, he had 100 horses and I had 10. I had more time to put towards that stuff. I literally watched every race run. And closely. Watched every horse. Watched every replay both angles. If anyone else was doing that, I did not see them.That is how I was taught and it's what I knew. So I did it.
I still have the programs from the summer of 79 at Bowie. Guess I should post some photos of them . It would help explain what I was seeing in each horse and you could see some of those old names from back in the day.
There were a few trainers that I gauged as speed trainers or better with sprinters or distance or closers or speed horses. Seemed like most had a niche. What I tried to do was find horses that I had seen and were ok with physically, and try and match the horses style to the weakness of the trainer as I perceived it. Not sure I was always right but that is what I used as a tool to select some of my claims. That would also keep me off certain horses I felt were in line with a certain trainers strength. Like I said, new wave state of the art stuff, Lol.
But back then, all the info you see today was not available. But quite a bit of it, I had, by keeping a years worth of old forms and a years worth of notes on programs. That and general notes I jotted down when I saw things in the morning.
Back then, betting was way on the back burner for me so I probably missed out on plenty of bets that could have been cashed but I was focused on claiming and it's real hard to focus on both. It took a lot of years to be able to even entertain that idea much less implement it.
Those certain trainers did exist though and I imagine that was true at every track.
Hope that answered the question well enough. If not, please comment more.Comment -
cutchemist42SBR Wise Guy
- 04-08-12
- 737
#3945Hey str,
Came across something I rarely see at Sam Houston when reviewing past races. The 6th race on Saturday featured a horse that just ran and won 3 days earlier. The horse went on to win again. Link to the pp is below, just scroll down to Saturday the 25th.
The race wasnt a suspicious drop....stayed at open 10k. The only major difference was the past race was a sloppy 5furlong race. He went off both times as the fave.
Is this an example of a horse coming out well and the trainer knowing the horse was in a good spot?
I was also wondering when it comes to the condition book.....would this horse have been entered into both races at once or is there enough time in 3 days to get into another race?Comment -
strSBR Posting Legend
- 01-12-09
- 11560
#3946Hey str,
Came across something I rarely see at Sam Houston when reviewing past races. The 6th race on Saturday featured a horse that just ran and won 3 days earlier. The horse went on to win again. Link to the pp is below, just scroll down to Saturday the 25th.
The race wasnt a suspicious drop....stayed at open 10k. The only major difference was the past race was a sloppy 5furlong race. He went off both times as the fave.
Is this an example of a horse coming out well and the trainer knowing the horse was in a good spot?
I was also wondering when it comes to the condition book.....would this horse have been entered into both races at once or is there enough time in 3 days to get into another race?
So in this case he was entered in both prior to running in the first one. That can make sense because if he did or over exerted in the first race or not come out perfectly, the trainer could have easily scratched out of the 2nd race when talking to the state vet the morning of the 2nd race. But because he won going 5/8ths so easily, chances are he came out of the race perfectly and the trainer figured, why not.
I have long said that horses that come back very quickly out of there last race are typically very good plays. Especially if they won easily or did not run well at all in the 1st effort. In either case, the were most likely not tired at all after the race. And they are probably tearing the barn down with energy.
The next rule of thumb on this is to play against them next out after 2 races in rapid succession. More often than not, they will lose and are usually favored if they performed well in the last effort or in this case, both. This is because, after 2 quick wins, they have probably given more effort than they have in quite a while and the after effects of that have a tendency to linger over to the next race. But, if he gets 4-8 weeks, then he has probably recovered sufficiently, although in my book, I would still probably try and beat him , especially if he was a favorite.
Hope that makes sense.Last edited by str; 01-30-20, 07:13 AM.Comment -
Easy-Rider 66BARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 02-14-12
- 36084
#3948Hey STR: could not find in the thread your analysis of 2015 Travers. Did a search on American Pharoah and did not come up. Anything Victor Espinoza could have done differently? Classic right eye situation? And do you agree shows the greatness of Pharoah that he put away Frosted? Thx in advance.Comment -
Easy-Rider 66BARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 02-14-12
- 36084
#3949Well,we are all experts after the fact. We all sound so smart. But with all honesty, no.
It was a spot chosen by the owners and the extreme pressure the sport put on the decision not by Baffart training a horse and finding the right spot.
Do I understand why Baffart did it? Absolutely. But the horse I saw yesterday warming up was a horse that had lost a decent amount of weight since the Belmont. Ribs were there for all to see. My bet is that left totally up to Baffart with no outside influence, the spot he would have chosen for AP yesterday would have been his stall in Calif. But the game isn't played like that and decisions of that magnitude are never easy ones.
With that said, the horse ran very well. Frosted went into a suicidal duel around the 5/8s pole and they cut back to back 23's. And this is Saratoga we are talking about not Santa Anita or some other highway. They were flying around the far turn. Frosted got right into AP's right eye and he fought back and finally put Frosted away. Great effort there. But it left him little resistance for the solid closer late.
All in all, he ran very well.Last edited by Easy-Rider 66; 01-30-20, 11:02 AM.Comment -
Louisvillekid1SBR Aristocracy
- 10-17-07
- 52143
#3950
Dubai sheek called my boy because their analytics matched one of his 5 B mares
crazy story
someone dropped $300k on ‘em 125/1 derby future in Casse ‘s camp
now 50/1
promoting the swale as a match race with green light goComment -
Louisvillekid1SBR Aristocracy
- 10-17-07
- 52143
#3951He said his next move is to get in on Tapwrit foal
cheap 12.5k sure fee from a triple crown winnerComment -
Louisvillekid1SBR Aristocracy
- 10-17-07
- 52143
#3952Str,
thanks for response
I have a few more questions
most importantly , I still don’t understand how these big name trainers who work for several ownership groups , decide who to give their best ideas too...
i.e
Mark Casse loves a claim horse or a breeding situation , he trains horses for several owners ... who does he bring this too... cuz isn’t putting up that $500k himself
I’ve asked this before in another way, but I’m still blind eyes to it
like my boy with untitled , Casse was talking to him directly entire time
casse doesn’t own the horse
I.e chad brown basically runs klarivach
but several other ownerships
how does he pick and choose ? Just presents it to everyone and highest bidder wins?
im sure I’m being blind to a simple answer here
but much love
miss all you horse guys
drink one for your boyComment -
JBEXSBR Posting Legend
- 01-02-12
- 23089
#3953Have to admit that things were very different in the beginning if my career. And yes, there were trainers that got a reputation with me as what you described. Not that often at that type of win % but I saw that.
One thing that kind of separated me from a lot of the trainers in Md. at the time was my age. Back then most trainers were in their 40s,50s and 60's or older . Several were younger but it was unheard of to start out at 21 years old with claimers and active in the claiming game like I was.
I remember winning my first race and the old timers in the press box were saying I was the youngest trainer to win in Md. that they could remember. No idea if that is true but that shows you how young I was compared to the others. And because of that, I was doing some " cutting edge" Lol, things at the time that not many did. I really paid close attention to other trainers as to their strengths and weaknesses as I saw them. I knew of one other trainer that did that. It was my mentor and I took it way past what he was doing. After all, he had 100 horses and I had 10. I had more time to put towards that stuff. I literally watched every race run. And closely. Watched every horse. Watched every replay both angles. If anyone else was doing that, I did not see them.That is how I was taught and it's what I knew. So I did it.
I still have the programs from the summer of 79 at Bowie. Guess I should post some photos of them . It would help explain what I was seeing in each horse and you could see some of those old names from back in the day.
There were a few trainers that I gauged as speed trainers or better with sprinters or distance or closers or speed horses. Seemed like most had a niche. What I tried to do was find horses that I had seen and were ok with physically, and try and match the horses style to the weakness of the trainer as I perceived it. Not sure I was always right but that is what I used as a tool to select some of my claims. That would also keep me off certain horses I felt were in line with a certain trainers strength. Like I said, new wave state of the art stuff, Lol.
But back then, all the info you see today was not available. But quite a bit of it, I had, by keeping a years worth of old forms and a years worth of notes on programs. That and general notes I jotted down when I saw things in the morning.
Back then, betting was way on the back burner for me so I probably missed out on plenty of bets that could have been cashed but I was focused on claiming and it's real hard to focus on both. It took a lot of years to be able to even entertain that idea much less implement it.
Those certain trainers did exist though and I imagine that was true at every track.
Hope that answered the question well enough. If not, please comment more.
yes str this is along the lines of what I meant.. I like the claim off another trainers weakness strategy as long if you felt the horse was physically sound.. you definitely worked hard to gain an edge in the claiming game and must have felt very rewarding (besides the money) to win with those claims
I was also referring to things like a below avg trainer winning more often for a certain owner or with a specific move (class hike or drop, distance switch etc).. guy named mark cramer wrote a book about this and other angles back in the 80's..think it was called "thoroughbred cycles" but not positive.. also along the lines of keeping records and noticing things when lesser trainers hit with off form horses at big prices.. only thing is these don't come up very often and require a lot patience.. and many times these types of winners are just random events that more than likely won't happen again.. thanks again strComment -
JBEXSBR Posting Legend
- 01-02-12
- 23089
#3954yes str this is along the lines of what I meant.. I like the claim off another trainers weakness strategy as long if you felt the horse was physically sound.. you definitely worked hard to gain an edge in the claiming game and must have felt very rewarding (besides the money) to win with those claims
I was also referring to things like a below avg trainer winning more often for a certain owner or with a specific move (class hike or drop, distance switch etc).. guy named mark cramer wrote a book about this and other angles back in the 80's..think it was called "thoroughbred cycles" but not positive.. also along the lines of keeping records and noticing things when lesser trainers hit with off form horses at big prices.. only thing is these don't come up very often and require a lot patience.. and many times these types of winners are just random events that more than likely won't happen again.. thanks again strLast edited by JBEX; 01-31-20, 10:52 AM.Comment -
JBEXSBR Posting Legend
- 01-02-12
- 23089
#3955
I noticed the 2nd dam is by storm cat out of a blushing groom mare.. not claiming to be a pedigree expert but that's some serious bloodlines.. I know blushing groom is extremely stout and both are very classy.. hopefully more good things to come for your buddyComment
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