John Morrison 2010-11 NHL thread

[Wallco99]

2/5/11 - JM NHL v1 Plays

Ottawa Senators (+1 ½) @ N.Y. Islanders v1 (A)
N.Y. Rangers (+1 ½) @ Montreal v1 (A)

[jas19illini]

This is the part i find hard to get behind. The odds on those two games payout about $30 on a $100 bet. Just doesnt seem like theres a lot of EV in that bet.

[Wallco99]

This is the part i find hard to get behind. The odds on those two games payout about $30 on a $100 bet. Just doesnt seem like theres a lot of EV in that bet.

This is because both teams are close. A 1 goal game is very likely, so juice is higher on these games. If you feel like gambling, play the M/L. But than both your teams actually have to win the game and on the road. And if they happen to lose by 1 goal, the series will be a win and will be over at that point. So you would have to decide whether to accept your losses, or continue playing series. There are many bets like this throughout the season. If it seems too high, it may not be for you. I didn't make the system, I only post the plays. And I am not going to continue trying to justify why the system is the way it is, or whether or not you should play the game. That is up to you. I will post the plays, if you don't like the odds, skip the game. Or come up with a creative way to get around it. There is a reason the odds are so high. Vegas feels this bet will probably win, so we have to pay to take the chance. This is the third time I've answered a similar post. In future, I will just refer to this post to answer this question.

[jas19illini]

Are you cranky? I wasnt trying to get under your skin or anything...

[Wallco99]

Are you cranky? I wasnt trying to get under your skin or anything...

No not at all, it just seems like you want me to talk you in to betting this system. I wouldn't be comfortable doing that, since you are jumping in mid-season, and a loss could really hurt you. It just seems that all your posts are reasons why you don't think this system is profitable, when in fact, it has been nothing but. Any chase system loss can get expensive, that's why this type of wagering is not for everyone. I wasn't trying to be rude, but just saying that if it wasn't your "cup of tea", then just find an alternate way to bet it that you are comfortable with. Yes it is expensive, but it is expensive for a reason, we are wagering on the probable picks.

[jas19illini]

Im always a skeptic, though i do want to believe in this system. I think i might just bets the games where we're betting the favs on the ML. Idk, ill have to figure something out. I do appreciate the help though.

[Wallco99]

Money lines get just as high. Play $10 units, until your bankroll grows. Then when comfortable with system, up your bets.

[mcbain]

Looks like you guys are on the right track this year.

By the way, "Morrison" stole this sytem from me after I posted about it here http://forum.sbrforum.com/hockey-han...hl-system.html
in March of 2009!

He did not have a hockey system before that. He even took the spreadsheet posted in the thread which was proven when he sent out a game as a play which was a mistake on that spreadsheet.

Don't ever pay him for anything. It is not worth it.

Anyway, good luck with the system. I suggest using a Labouchere money management system with it not chase but either way good job Wallco keeping things organized.

[Wallco99]

JM NHL v1 System
2010-11 System to date: 43-0

(2/5/11) Ottawa (+1 ½) v1 (A) - Loss
(2/5/11) N.Y Rangers (+1 ½) v1 (A) – Loss

(A) 31-14
(B) 8-4
(C) 4-0

Next JM v1 plays:
(2/7/11) Ottawa Senators @ Vancouver v1 (B)
(2/7/11) N.Y. Rangers @ Detroit v1 (B)

[Wallco99]

2/7/11 - JM NHL v1 Plays
2010-11 System to date: 43-0


Ottawa Senators (+1 ½) @ Vancouver v1 (B)
N.Y. Rangers (+1 ½) @ Detroit v1 (B)

[rkelly110]

Looks like you guys are on the right track this year.

By the way, "Morrison" stole this sytem from me after I posted about it here http://forum.sbrforum.com/hockey-han...hl-system.html
in March of 2009!

He did not have a hockey system before that. He even took the spreadsheet posted in the thread which was proven when he sent out a game as a play which was a mistake on that spreadsheet.

Don't ever pay him for anything. It is not worth it.

Anyway, good luck with the system. I suggest using a Labouchere money management system with it not chase but either way good job Wallco keeping things organized.

I remember you said that, mcbain, good job on your system.

After buying JM's basketball, before he had an NHL system, I experimented
with a 3 game chase. I looked for teams with a home winning record over
50% and bet their next 3 home games with good success. The odds were
definitely better.

[Wallco99]

JM NHL v1 System
2010-11 System to date: 44-0

(2/7/11) Ottawa (+1 ½) v1 (B) -Loss
(2/7/11) N.Y Rangers (+1 ½) v1 (B)– Win

(A) 31-14
(B) 9-5
(C) 4-0

Next JM v1 plays:
(2/9/11) Ottawa Senators @ Calgary v1 (C)

[UCcats]

I haven't really followed hockey much in my life but I did start doing this system this february so are 111 foot empty netters with 34 seconds left a common occurrence?

[Wallco99]

I haven't really followed hockey much in my life but I did start doing this system this february so are 111 foot empty netters with 34 seconds left a common occurrence?

Just this week so far. 3 times.

[Wallco99]

2/9/11 – JM NHL v1 Plays
2010-11 System to date: 43-0


Ottawa Senators (+1 ½) @ Calgary v1 (C)

[on3]

first loss of the year. on to the next one.

[COYLO]

i choose the wrong night to tail oh well as on3 said "on to the next one"

[c-fut]

Can't win them all. Just a little bump in the road. Lets get the next one

[gamecockfan]

I'm enjoying figuring this out. Not a big hockey guy but i think i could be with a proper system to follow. Thanks for the postings Wallco99. Please keep up the good work.

[Wallco99]

JM NHL v1 System
2010-11 System to date: 44-1

(2/9/11) Ottawa (+1 ½) v1 (C) -Loss

(A) 31-14
(B) 9-5
(C) 4-1

Next JM v1 plays:
(2/11/11) Pittsburgh Penguins @ N.Y. Islanders v1 (A)

[Wallco99]

2/11/11 – JM NHL v1 Plays
2010-11 System to date: 44-1

Pittsburgh Penguins (M/L) @ N.Y. Islanders v1 (A)

** I have chosen this game for my two unit play. So far, I am 6 for 7 on these plays, the other one covered on (B) bet.

[Wallco99]

JM NHL v1 System
2010-11 System to date: 44-1

(2/11/11) Pittsburgh v1 (A) -Loss

(A) 31-15
(B) 9-5
(C) 4-1

There are no plays for 2/12/11

Next JM v1 plays:
(2/13/11) Pittsburgh Penguins @ N.Y. Rangers v1 (B)

[thelimit0310]

Hey Wallco, just had a question or two

Did the recent loss cause a net loss to the bankroll? I'm not sure how much of a unit loss a system loss is for this system.

Did you ever finish the backtesting of playing both ML and PL on all the picks (or was it just favs?)? Would love to double my unit gain.

Thanks bud

[Wallco99]

Hey Wallco, just had a question or two

Did the recent loss cause a net loss to the bankroll? I'm not sure how much of a unit loss a system loss is for this system.

Did you ever finish the backtesting of playing both ML and PL on all the picks (or was it just favs?)? Would love to double my unit gain.

Thanks bud

System is still +19 units, even with the loss. I haven't finished my backtest yet, in fact I am actually backtesting a home dog system at this time. Will let you know what I find.

[thelimit0310]

Alright awesome, good work and thanks for the answer!

[bauerranch]

Did not realize that someone started this thread- thanks

[Wallco99]

2/13/11 – JM NHL v1 Plays
2010-11 System to date: 44-1

Pittsburgh Penguins (+1 ½) @ N.Y. Rangers v1 (B)

[Wallco99]

2/13/11 – JM NHL v1 Plays
2010-11 System to date: 44-1

Pittsburgh Penguins (+1 ½) @ N.Y. Rangers v1 (B)

[imotiv8]

that Pittsburg line is dropping faster than a $2 hookers skirt!

[Wallco99]

JM NHL v1 System
2010-11 System to date: 44-1

(2/13/11) Pittsburgh v1 (B) - Loss

(A) 31-15
(B) 9-6
(C) 4-1

Next JM v1 plays:
(2/14/11) Washington Capitals @ Phoenix v1 (A)

[Wallco99]

2/14/11 – JM NHL v1 Plays
2010-11 System to date: 44-1

Washington Capitals (-110) or (+1 ½) @ Phoenix Coyotes v1 (A)

[alex81]

I have to admit that I am a little skeptical about playing the Pens right now since they are so banged up... Half their team is missing! I can guarantee you that JM is already preparing an explanation of why this series won't count if they lose the C bet. Also... seeing that Washington may end up getting favored here, what happens if they lose by a goal? Will there be a B bet?

[Wallco99]

I have to admit that I am a little skeptical about playing the Pens right now since they are so banged up... Half their team is missing! I can guarantee you that JM is already preparing an explanation of why this series won't count if they lose the C bet. Also... seeing that Washington may end up getting favored here, what happens if they lose by a goal? Will there be a B bet?

I agree with you, I went out on a limb last night and put a but load on Anaheim, to try and recoup my Pittsburgh loss, fortunately, I won. I put extra on Washington tonight, odds are only (-110), I also put two units on Washington + 1/2 in reg. If I hit these, I will play Pittsburgh small tomorrow, If not, I will play three units on pitt, and two on Wash (B). See what happens. At least I managed to recoup my (A) and (B) loss, so no matter what, no extremely large (C) bet now. Good luck.

[Wallco99]

This is one of those games that JM will find a way to claim a win no matter what happens.

[alex81]

I personally would probably lean Phoenix but taking Washington +0.5 is definitely not a bad idea considering Phoenix's last 2 wins came in OT.