Possible new system

[Kelloggs]

I just ran the numbers for my example:

1. game Risk 140 Odds -140 Profit -140
2. game Risk 180 Odds -150 Profit -180
3. game Risk 200 Odds -160 Profit 126
4. game Risk 180 Odds -150 Profit 120
5. game Risk 185 Odds -150 Profit 125

Total profit $51

Using ** the profit would have been $300, but the Risks would also have been larger and if the 3. game was lost it would have costed a lot more.

[Panekkkk]

The profit is the same since you make it up over time (i.e., your bet sizes increase as you go depending on the number of losses).

[Kelloggs]

But using ** you could also increase the bets as you go on.

How do you calculate what numbers to use on the lines compared to your bankroll ? I find it a bit difficult to see what sizes bets you could run into.

[TGoat]

Wouldn't this work just as well with roulette? You could bet one unit on the first third (1-12) and one unit on the second third (13-24). If you lose, you are down two units and and if you win you are plus 1 unit. You win the bet 24/38% of the time (.6315) and you lose the bet .3684% of the time.

The odds against losing two straight are .3684^2 =.1357 or 6.38 to 1.

The odds against losing three straight are .3684^3=.050 or 18.99 to 1.

The odds against losing four straight bets are .0184 or 53.3 to 1.

The odds against losing five straight bets are 146 to 1.

You can use Martingale, or Labourchere, with a 5 bet, 4 bet, 3 bet or 2 bet structure.

Using Martingale and making $5 minimum bets ($10 total for the first spin), you would need a bankroll of $310 and baring five consecutive losses you could grind out $20 a session, three sessions a day for $1800 a month.

It looks like easy money to me.

[Blargh]

Labouchere is best known as a Roullette system but for back/red or odds/even.

[Blargh]

I uploaded a pic of my spreadsheeting thinking I had a point to make. But now I don't think I had a point to make.
Anyways know that it's uploaded, that's what a single line labouchere system would look like. I modified the system to add another 10 if I had one number left on the line that was less than 20. And if I lost a game aftering adding a unit to make it 20, I would take the number back off. It makes it a min. bet to win 20.
I wouldn't mind seeing exactly how the multi-lined labouchere is doing so far.

[Blargh]

Played with some numbers using $20 unit size.
With Martingale you would have bet a total of $1271.13 and won $287.80 to date for a 22.64% ROI The largest amount tied up in a chase at any moment was $375.14 On Oct 17 which was on a C bet. The $375.14 includes the amount bet on the game plus the losses from the previous games in the chase. Based on the minimum bankroll required for the chase to date, your ROI would be 76.72%.
For a single line Labouchere you would have bet a total of $1138.10 and won $221.60 for a 19.47% ROI. The largest amount tied up in a chase was $259.80. The ROI based on the minimum bankroll required is 85.30%.
While at the moment there isn't large gaps in comparing ROI, it'd be interesting to see what the results are later in the season after we have lost more games on the system.

[egr99]

The labourchere will never outperform martingale up untill a loss... But once that loss hits martingale it STINGS. Right now my labourchere lines have approximatly 34 units of juice tied up across 4 systems... Very big mess, going to fix this tomorrow...

egr99

[Stealinhome]

Great insight on the labourchere MM system guys I have just started using it for the first time seem like a smart way to manage the risk when chasing. I have been going with the single line.

[Kelloggs]

25. oct
B: Edmonton +1.5

[Panekkkk]

So what's the play for tonight? Both MIN and the NYI opened the same. I'm leaning NYI.

[dimon]

juts wait till the game and see the biggest underdog then

[Panekkkk]

dimon -- it depends on how you want to play the system. You can go by closing lines or opening lines.

[dimon]

well you just said that the lines are the same at open, so it is smarter to wait till the game time...looks like NYI will be bigger underdog

[dimon]

can someone confirm this...what to do if the lines are the same for 2 or more teams...i offered to wait till the game time and make a decision then...today the play was NYI and they covered

[dimon]

hey guys, I have an idea, maybe it is not that good...however, what are the records for A, and B bets? here what I thought might work much better...basically all I wanted to add is wait for the largest underdog to loose 2 days in a row (with +1.5 spread) and then martingale/lab bets 4 more games...not sure that past month the biggest underdogs actually lost 2 days in a row, but maybe have some numbers...thanks

[Kelloggs]

hey guys, I have an idea, maybe it is not that good...however, what are the records for A, and B bets? here what I thought might work much better...basically all I wanted to add is wait for the largest underdog to loose 2 days in a row (with +1.5 spread) and then martingale/lab bets 4 more games...not sure that past month the biggest underdogs actually lost 2 days in a row, but maybe have some numbers...thanks

Post #1 and #2

16 and 10 C-bets = the times A and B have lost in a row

[dimon]

yeah I saw that....not too many picks at all

[dimon]

here what I also thought off...have 3 lines and play three 2 game mini-series...this way limit your losses in case of loosing and get somethng back in case of wining...what you guys think about it?

[dimon]

just a though so all criticism welcome:

scenario 1:

three lines like equal value:

50-50-50-50
50-50-50-50
50-50-50-50

game 1-6 looses odds (-180)
you have this

50-50-50-50-180-414

50-50-50-50-180-414

50-50-50-50-180-414

Total loss is $1782

Potential profit/loss after wining each game:

Game 1 +$100
Game 2 +$50
Game 3 -$494 - loss
Game 4 -$544 - loss
Game 5 -$1080 -loss
Game 6 -$1138 -loss

[dimon]

today PHI is the play but the line is -222 so better to stay away and wait till tomorrow

[Panekkkk]

Not sure what you're describing above dimon. And a system is a system, regardless of the line. Philly is the play today (remember you usually want to wait to see if you can get a better line since the public will inflate the favorite -- usually). The lines are fairly high which makes such a system pretty scary in the early going, even with the Labouchere.

[Kelloggs]

The system looks good, but as we allready know we will loose about 1 out of 25, so what is the best way to bet this system, to gain the most profit with the least amount of effort

With Martingale we would land about 100 wins and 4 looses, at around -200 and going for a win of $10 that would give $1000 in wins and (20+60+180) $1040 in looses, give and take a few.

The better way would proberly be Labouchere, but how ?

Looking at Blarghs screenshoot one line seems to be ok for the moment, but as we know we will loose a C-bet at some point and if that had happend with Nashville the next bet would have been to Win 150.90 at -239 and some fingers crossed for the next A-bet to make it.

So I guess we need to spread the looses in more lines, but how do you setup Lab correct and is it possible ? I would assume that odds, hitrate and number of chases are the keys, is there a formula

I was looking at the website mentioned earlier, but I am still unsure what solution is the best, how many lines, should the looses be added as a seperat number, should it be added to existing number on the next line, should it be spread on all lines etc.

As I can see, to few lines and the bets are getting to high, but many lines and the looses are spread over to many bets.

[Blargh]

While a high PL at -224 hurts with the chalk, it has a getter probablilty of winning than a PL at -120. You won't find a chase that wins close to 66% of its individual games that plays odds close to even.
The problem with the multi-line Labouchere chase is that there is no in-depth example of it on the web in regards with Sports betting. By In-depth I mean an example that shows at least 20-30 plays rather than 3-4. In fact I think the screenshot I posted earlier is the most in-depth example of using a single line labouchere I have seen on the web. Which is not exactly
I may attampt to backtrack the system using a multi-line labouchere sometime in November. Using a multi-line Lab you'd need more wins to recoup your losses so you need a larger sample size to get a better idea of it's performance. For multi-line I'd also be concerned as to when you need to start consolidating your lines near the end of the season to ensure you don't leave too many (preferably any) loses on your lines.

Regardless of what money management system your using, we really need the Flyers to pull this one out. An early season 6 game chase will really sting.

[egr99]

The problem with the multi line labourchere that I am encountering right now is the juice on the games is too high and we are not clearing enough lines fast enough to cover a potential loss that we will encounter.

Right now for example, on my chases, I am up a little under 20units, however in reality If I were martingaling I should be up nearly 40-45 (minus pending series chases). I got 24.4 units of juice tied up on my lines. Another issue that has me a little nervous is also the fact if the loss comes with high numbers pending from previous series it will compound the loss into a bigger loss. What really sucks I am still undefeated.

I been working on figuring out a way to optimize my MM for a couple days... Its difficult but I am looking at a couple different options for future chases...

egr99

[egr99]

Another open netter sinks the ship... winning 59:15 outta 60mins... lol... what can you do, up 2-0 midway 2nd and loose 4-2.

egr99

[SkivChef]

UGH!

[dimon]

looks like Toronto tomorrow at -170 or so....Good luck guys

[Panekkkk]

That was just brutal. It was a terrible empty netter too.

[threeg5]

While a high PL at -224 hurts with the chalk, it has a getter probablilty of winning than a PL at -120. You won't find a chase that wins close to 66% of its individual games that plays odds close to even.
The problem with the multi-line Labouchere chase is that there is no in-depth example of it on the web in regards with Sports betting. By In-depth I mean an example that shows at least 20-30 plays rather than 3-4. In fact I think the screenshot I posted earlier is the most in-depth example of using a single line labouchere I have seen on the web. Which is not exactly
I may attampt to backtrack the system using a multi-line labouchere sometime in November. Using a multi-line Lab you'd need more wins to recoup your losses so you need a larger sample size to get a better idea of it's performance. For multi-line I'd also be concerned as to when you need to start consolidating your lines near the end of the season to ensure you don't leave too many (preferably any) loses on your lines.

Regardless of what money management system your using, we really need the Flyers to pull this one out. An early season 6 game chase will really sting.

The first thought I have is this are we really talking money managemen? Or are we talking about the most simplest ways to recoup our losses? I believe there is a fine line between those 2.

that said:

The simple answer for those that really understand lab MM is 2 lines is the most you can use for SHORT TERM GAIN.

For those that have a little grasp on Lab MM then hear is the answer:

In other words the more lines you have be prepared to have x BR and be in it for a few years

if you are playing 2 lines for short term gain as in this season only then you would want to begin reducing to 1 line lab MM in Feb so that come March you can hopefully begin hitting the daily wins as it seems to be the most profitable month.

For all this is a thought on the "long term" idea:

carry your losses over to the next year not counting them into this year (so you never really have to "end" the season with a loss but, carry your line 1(you should be there by the end of the season) loss this year (if there is one) over to your lines 2 or 3 or 4 the next year )
I hope this make sense as it is a thought that I had after reading this.
i understand Lab MM but I currently use Martingale with some other systems that I am playing. I plan ove the next week to convert the entire process over to lab for each sport but, i have to wait for a win at each system to get it to that point ugggh.

Thanks for those that read thes 47 cents,

3g5

If anyone knew the write way we wouldn't know about it anyways beacuase smart people are selfish

and remember its bad lusk to be superstitious

[Panekkkk]

I started with the 3-line Lab but am down over 4 units since starting (I started at a bad time with a 3-game chase and now moving onto a 2-gamer ... of course ). But it certainly does and will take a long time to clear these lines and I'm wondering when if ever I will start to see any profit from this. As suggested, it may be best to move to fewer lines when this system becomes more profitable.

With a 3-game multi-line approach like this:

GM1 loses split the loss between GM1 and GM2
GM2 loses split the loss between GM1 and GM3 OR GM2 and GM3
GM3 loses split the loss between GM1 and GM3 or GM1 and GM2

I bolded my preferences.

[Panekkkk]

I mentioned this in some posts to individual users. But using a 3 or 4-line multiline Lab I would suggest unit size be no bigger than 2% of your bankroll. I am at 3.5% and already forseeing huge problems. The issue with the Lab is that losses compound if multiple chases present themselves in a row. For example. If you have THREE C-Game chases in a row (without hitting any GM1's), your ship will be near sunk. Maybe even a 1% unit size is the way to go then. Will run some simulations.

[Panekkkk]

What would be most relevant to know, egrr or sprn, was the order of chases in real time:

E.g., A, A, A, B, B, C, B, A, D, C, A, A etc. (where A = A win, B = B win and so on progressing throughout the season). If in the past we hit a situation where a few B's and C's and D's stack up you're in trouble (e.g., B B C D B)

[Panekkkk]

And what's the play for tonight? Leafs opened worse but Montreal looking worse now.

[egr99]

what would be most relevant to know, egrr or sprn, was the order of chases in real time:

E.g., a, a, a, b, b, c, b, a, d, c, a, a etc. (where a = a win, b = b win and so on progressing throughout the season). If in the past we hit a situation where a few b's and c's and d's stack up you're in trouble (e.g., b b c d b)

06/07: abaababcaaabaabaaababcdeaababcabcaaabaabaabababcdefaaabaaabaaaaababcababaaaababcdeababcdeabaabcabaabcababcan/an/an/an/an/ababaabaabcaaabcaababcaaaabcdaaabcababaaababaaabaabcaaaabaaabaababcdababaa

07/08:
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08/09:
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