Possible new system

Anders · 10-20-09, 08:10 AM

Originally posted by Anders

Would it not be interesting to just make it a 3 game chase?

Last 2 years you would have lost 4 times/year, around 9.5 units each time, a total of 38 units.

You would have won around 75 units. 75-38=37u in profit.

Let say you have 950$ per chase to bet with, 100-250-600. Youre total bankroll is 4k.

Your profit would then be 7500-3800=3700$

If you chase 6 games you must start off much lower but lets say you use all of the br, 4k. Bets 30-70-170-410-1k-2.4k

You would win 20$ in every chase. 20*115=2300 or 20*109=2180. So you make less and dont forget, 1 loss will cost you 4k.

I def. like the 3 game chase better.

Thoughts?

Come on guys, work with me here.

Panekkkk · 10-20-09, 08:58 AM

Anders,

I picked up on this as well.

The 2-game chase is actually more profitable than the 3-game chase

and much less risky. It gives a moderate yield in the end but still decent.

GL

Anders · 10-20-09, 11:48 AM

Panekkkk, thanks for replying.

I looked at a 2 game chase but looking at last season i think its worse. The season before it might been better.

The main issue is how much of youre br you would use/chase. I had 4k in total in my examples and last season there was 16 losses.

Even by using 1k/chase (witch i think is to much) you would have won less then with the 3 game chase.

The last 3 seasons have had 10-20 c-bets.

Blargh · 10-20-09, 01:03 PM

I have been betting the biggest dog on the Pl since opening night. It's 13-0 in chases and 13-4 in individual games. I have been using Labouchere.
I was doing the +1.5 RL top fav chase in baseball as well and was trying to see if it would work for hockey. I checked playing the top fav in hockey on the +1.5 RL.

For the two game chase you would have lost 18 times last season. Assuming a loss of 4.75 units per chase loss. This is assuming an average odds of -140 (last year average top dog odds were -232 so a average of -140 odds may be too high) 18*5.25 = 85.5, You would have won 117 chases last year and had a overall proft of 31.5 units. While that certainly doesn't sound very good compared to someone chasing 6 or more games who would have +117 units. You have to look at the minimum bank roll to start a chase. Creating a worst case scenario for odds in a two game chase I'd pick back-to-back games with -250 odds. A chase loss on that would be 11.25 units.
For martingale a 6 game chase with average odds of -140 would tie up approx 395 units. A worst case scenario of a 6 game chase with -200 average odds would tie up 728 units.
If you had a 500 unit bankroll, it'd be unwise to bet more than one unit per chase uusing martingale since a 6 games chase for two units would exceed your bankroll. But with this 2 game chase you could easily chase 2 or 3 units or even 5 if you want to push it and even with a 10 2-game chase losing streak still have close to half your bankroll left.
Based on the past two years you could have started the season with a 10 unit bankroll chasing one unit on the 2 game chase and survived the entire season. In 07-08 you would have had +59 units. In incredible 590% ROI.
I think we get cuaght up too much in wins/losses rather than looking at unit sizes/min bankroll or ROI.
I might look at switching over to a two game chase. I think I'll have to crunch some actual numbers instead of estimating them, but historical puckline data is a pain to get.

Panekkkk · 10-20-09, 01:24 PM

.

Panekkkk · 10-20-09, 01:28 PM

Sorry Anders, you are right, had the math off -- the 3-game chase is much much better.

Panekkkk · 10-20-09, 01:29 PM

How certain are we that the average odds was -139? Can anyone verify? That seems very low considering that today's -215 ML odds yield -150 on the +1.5 PL. I have a feeling that the +1.5 is going to be much more expensive this year. Anyone noticed that?

td4life · 10-20-09, 02:36 PM

anders and panekkkk,
are you both decided on the 3 game chase (vs the 2 game or the 6 game chase)?
and have you gone ahead and wagered with this system this season?
Today St. Louis PL -195 qualifies , yes?

mcbain · 10-20-09, 03:53 PM

STL at 1.524 (-191) looks right to me. Those are the odds at Pinnacle.

Good work in this thread everyone.

sprn · 10-20-09, 04:03 PM

I really appreciate all the effort you guys put in for tweaking and improving the system. The 3-game chase sure is interesting since the high risk with the 6-game chase was the biggest concern of mine. I'm playing STL tonight, bol!

Blargh · 10-20-09, 06:52 PM

"

Blargh · 10-20-09, 06:58 PM

Chasing three games would have resulted in 5 loses last season.
The key is getting a good eastimate on the average PL odds you'd be forced to play.
Assuming the early season is a good indicator then you'd be looking at approx -189.
A three game chase on loss -189 would cost you 23.13 units.
Bet To Win Tot Lost
1.89 1.89 1.00 -1.89
1.89 5.46 2.89 -7.35
1.89 15.78 8.35 -23.13
But I do believe based on previous years average Top fav ML that the PL odds will come down but by how much? Cause if -189 is the actual average odds, you'd have only won 1.35 units last year using this chase. Actually less since the season ending with a game A loss.
Using a two game chase you would have lost 15.3 units.

We really need a good source for previous season's PL. Anyone know of a good site?

pelos879 · 10-20-09, 08:14 PM

B bet tomorrow night

Anders · 10-21-09, 08:41 AM

Originally posted by Blargh

Chasing three games would have resulted in 5 loses last season.
The key is getting a good eastimate on the average PL odds you'd be forced to play.
Assuming the early season is a good indicator then you'd be looking at approx -189.
A three game chase on loss -189 would cost you 23.13 units.
Bet To Win Tot Lost
1.89 1.89 1.00 -1.89
1.89 5.46 2.89 -7.35
1.89 15.78 8.35 -23.13
But I do believe based on previous years average Top fav ML that the PL odds will come down but by how much? Cause if -189 is the actual average odds, you'd have only won 1.35 units last year using this chase. Actually more since the season ending with a game A loss.
Using a two game chase you would have lost 15.3 units.

We really need a good source for previous season's PL. Anyone know of a good site?

I used sprns first post for my math. It says 4 losses and av. line -139.

I was also sceptic to the low line but that was what i had to work with.

Since im using Lab. instead of ** im really not that worried about the lines though.

Panekkkk · 10-21-09, 09:48 AM

Yes, if the average odds are worse than -140 than you begin to have a problem (depending on how much worse) with the 3-game chase (and a 6-game chase becomes virtually impossible). As Anders said, approach it with the Labouchere and you'll be much better off. I won't be starting this until November and will probably not move beyond a game 4.

egrr or sprn, what month did the chase get beyond 3 games?

Thx for everyone's work.

pelos879 · 10-21-09, 12:43 PM

Wut's the pick for today?

Anders · 10-21-09, 04:35 PM

Nashville +1.5

sprn · 10-21-09, 05:39 PM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

egrr or sprn, what month did the chase get beyond 3 games?

07/08 season:
November 1 time (D-bet won)
December 1 time (D-bet won)
March 1 time (D-bet won)
April 1 time (D-bet won)

08/09 season:
November 1 time (D-bet won)
December 1 time (D-bet won)
February 1 time (F-bet won)
March 1 time (D-bet won)

sprn · 10-21-09, 09:19 PM

Nashville covered the B-bet

14-0 in series for the season.

Josu · 10-22-09, 10:30 AM

Predators +1,5 a play tonight?

Anders · 10-23-09, 08:16 AM

Good win.

Stealinhome · 10-23-09, 09:33 AM

Hey every one I stumbled on this site a few days back then found this thread any way this sounds like good business I think I am on the same page as you all if I am then FL is a A play at+1.5 is this correct? Thanks!

Anders · 10-23-09, 12:09 PM

Wellcome Steal

Florida it is, +1.5

Stealinhome · 10-23-09, 09:24 PM

Nice win eh

Stealinhome · 10-23-09, 09:38 PM

Looks like its FLA again tomorrow?

MacAttack13 · 10-23-09, 10:04 PM

Can you give me an example for Saturday's plays since there is a big card? Also what is the cut off -200?

Blargh · 10-23-09, 11:18 PM

I don't believe anyone has mentioned an odds cut-off as a filter.
If you mean not playing any team with a +1.5 PL over -200 you be missing out on 7 wins and 0 losses.
If you mean only playing on games when the top fav of the night is -200 or more then depending on your book and timing, would have filtered out 15 to 19 plays so far.

dimon · 10-24-09, 01:00 AM

Looks like Florida at +140 tomorrow...matchbook will be the best one for this system....so 6 game series with lab, and no play when 1 game a?

Kelloggs · 10-24-09, 06:34 AM

Originally posted by Anders

Since im using Lab. instead of ** im really not that worried about the lines though.

Could you or somebody else explain the Lab for this system in details ? Fx. use the first games that has qualified for this system.

I have used ** for a long time, but I am not 100% sure I know how I should use Lab.

Anders · 10-24-09, 08:38 AM

http://platinumsportsinvesting.com/labourchere.aspx

Panekkkk · 10-24-09, 09:05 AM

Kelloggs - have a look at my post in http://forum.sbrforum.com/hockey-han...system-p7.html

Florida +1.5 would be the play today. I missed the last few days of bets so of course they will probably lose today. And remember you are betting on the biggest dog, so your best bet is to wait the line out until as late as possible.

Kelloggs · 10-24-09, 09:18 AM

I read that a description a couple of times allready, is this how it is used ?

Start lines for 3 game chase going for $100:

Game 1: 50-50-50-50
Game 2: 50-50-50-50
Game 3: 50-50-50-50

A-Team loose -140 to win 100, adding 70 to line 1 and 2

Game 1: 50-50-50-50-70
Game 2: 50-50-50-50-70
Game 3: 50-50-50-50

B-Team loose -150 to win 120 ?, adding 75 to line 2 and 3

Game 1: 50-50-50-50-70
Game 2: 50-50-50-50-70-75
Game 3: 50-50-50-50-75

C-Team win -160 to win 125 ?, removes 50 and 75 from line 3

Game 1: 50-50-50-50-70
Game 2: 50-50-50-50-70-75
Game 3: 50-50-50

A-Team win -150 to win 120 ?, removes 50 and 70 from line 1

Game 1: 50-50-50
Game 2: 50-50-50-50-70-75
Game 3: 50-50-50

A-Team win -150 to win 125 ?, removes 50 and 75 from line 2

Game 1: 50-50-50
Game 2: 50-50-50-70
Game 3: 50-50-50

Kelloggs · 10-24-09, 09:28 AM

Panekkkk - thx, you can have posted that a bit earlier, then I could have look there instead of making the calculation myself

But it looks like I finally got it, right

Panekkkk · 10-24-09, 10:02 AM

Yeah it's fairly complicated and there are many variations on how you can use it. GL!

supra23 · 10-24-09, 10:55 AM

damn!...the labouchere system is so confusing to grasp, i just cant seem to get it...i wish i knew so i could use it for this system