Possible new system

[sprn]

I play opening lines. If two teams opening with the same lines as top dog, I play the team that becomes less of a dog. That's how I have been doing it.

That's how I've been doing it too.

[egr99]

Using closing lines I think is a bad idea, because there is different closing lines at different shops as well as the archived closing lines vary from site/site.

As for not playing games on days with 1 game, it is a possible filter, however you are giving up some wins.

2006/2007: 11-1 on 1game days. The loss was the one you stated above.
2007/08: 3-2.
2008/09: 2-0.

I did my backtesting ths way to eliminate 100% of human judgement calls to keep the numbers pure.

If you use proper MM w/ a good recovery plan when taking a loss, you should be ok either way.

egr99

during my backtesting i used: http://www.sbrforum.com/Scores/NHL+Odds

Yesterday it was TOR the clear opening high fav but as today, the URL above isn't listing opening lines... Weird... So yesterday the play should have been TOR according to this... Kind of weird the friggen site isn't working all of sudden during game day w/ opening lines anymore... ?#%?%#

egr99

Today, according to the info mposted above the play was definatly TB +1.5 they opened at -160.

The site above is messed up now and doesn't show the OPENING before game time, you got to click each ML game at a time and see where it opened. The default they used during my backtesting for listing OPENING numbers was 5Dimes... 5Dimes opened OTT ML today @ -160...

egr99

[dimon]

man, I should of take the opening lines and take TB...played Nashville indeed...damn it...oh well you win some you loose some

[dimon]

NYI is a clear play today right?

[egr99]

As I stated before I do not understand how you can go by closing lines... What happens if the biggest favorite of the day is at 7pm but then a line move makes the 10pm play the biggest favorite...?

You have already played the 7PM game then the 10pm game becomes the play...? Just doesn't make sense.

egr99

[sprn]

It was nice that the Islanders won tonight, lots of juice on this chase compared to the other chases that went to a C-bet. Predators is the play for Saturday (A-bet).

[sprn]

A small recap of how the system is doing:

35-0 in series with A-bets going 26-10, B-bets 4-5 and C-bets 5-0. Still haven't gone past a C-bet this season. Had a really nice run during last week with 7 straight A-bet wins until Carolina lost two days ago. Today's bet is Montreal Canadiens.

[PacmanJr_00]

i still see no losses at this point.

[PacmanJr_00]

Phi lost to Pit last night. Stl is the play tonight [B].

[Blargh]

The ROI on this chase has been fairly low.
If you were doing Labouchere you'd have a ROI of approx 5.5% on total bet and approx 33% on min bankroll.
I don't even want to think what the ROI is for Martingale. From Nov 1st to 5th (based on the plays I had) a Martingale would have required a min bankroll of 232 units. I.E betting 168 units to win back 64 units of losses just to be up 1 unit.

I am using what I coined LaBlargh MM. Basically making a line of 4-5 units, after any losses take the amount of the loss, divide it by the numbers remaining on your line, add that into your remaining units on the line.
Example.
Have a line of 10-10-10-10-10
Bet 15 to win 10 at -150; lose 15
15/5=3 3+10=13
New line
13-13-13-13-13

Every win is a unit won like a Martingale but like a Labouchere it helps to keep the amounts bet down. Only disadvantage is if you win 4 staright at 13 and then you basically have a martingale chasing 13 instead of 10 if you go on a losing streak. But you can easily divide the last number into 2 or 3 (and add in your unit of 10) to get the amounts back down and still win a unit a win. I doubt it is a new form of money management but I have never seen it on the net before.

I am using it on this chase but even with it ROI is only 7.7% on total bet and 45.5% on min bankroll.

I may be abandoning this chase soon to be able to increase my unit sizes in other chases.
Average odds on this system is -181 but it has performed at -151

[mintybetmachine]

how many total units lost would losing an F bet be?

[Blargh]

Check back after the 20th and I will let you know.

So is this a rough stretch? Or will this be par for the course the rest of the season? Last two seasons the +1.5PL hit 63% and 66% of the time. Right now it's down to 58.6% this season. I don't have PL odds from prev years but the Top Fav lines have been lower in prev years which suggest the +1.5PL have been higher. So not only is this system suffering from a lower win % but it also suffer from higher lines.

[egr99]

15/1: LOSS -115
16/1: LOSS -130
17/1: LOSS -115
18/1: LOSS -200
19/1: LOSS -175 / -175

6 game loosing streak on 5days following largest fav of day odds. PL odds for +1.5 above...



egr99

[egr99]

MY BAD...dates were wrong... 6 straight days... 7 total games... so definatly a loss for this system.

14/1: LOSS -115
15/1: LOSS -130
16/1: LOSS -115
17/1: LOSS -200
18/1: LOSS -175 / -175
19/1: LOSS -160

egr99

[Blargh]

I stopped playing on Dec 23rd. It had underperformed compared to the past two years. I was considering going the other way and playing the -1.5PL for the favs. How has the system performed this month?
I have it as 20-9 in Oct
18-12 in Nov
12-11 upto Dec 23rd.

[Glitch]

interesting system. will be watching

[Blargh]

I have it as 20-9 in Oct
18-12 in Nov
12-11 upto Dec 23rd.
This is the +1.5PL. Remember with the +1.5Pl you are often paying -150 or more.

[egr99]

anaheim -160... LOSS

8days... 9games...WOW

egr99

[bombCanada]

Anyone care to provide an update, or has every bailed on the chase for warmer waters and better returns elsewhere?