Possible new system

[egr99]

ugh... that didnt come out well... the red is the loss..6game chase.. the n/a is days there was no games...

also the way I have it in my sheet... if you see like above "abcde' than 'abaabc" that means game E won, B won, A won, C won

[SkivChef]

You mean there were no games on the schedule or no plays?

[egr99]

no games on schedule, mainly holidays / all star break...

Also, if 2 games opened up as same line and 1 lost and 1 won, I would consider the loss as the play... to keep hman element of picking out...

[Anders]

My lab. dont look pretty so far. Have decreased it from 4 to 3 lines.

Im also flexible with what line to bet. The better the game looks the higher line i bet. B-bets also come on the biggest line since a b-bet has a very good chance of hitting.

Im also flexible with moving different systems between different labs.

Im really not to positive about this sofar so i might give up.

Thinking of sitting out the A-bet and if it lose start chasing B and C with Martingale. Less games but also less money at risk.

[Stealinhome]

ugh... that didnt come out well... the red is the loss..6game chase.. the n/a is days there was no games...

also the way I have it in my sheet... if you see like above "abcde' than 'abaabc" that means game E won, B won, A won, C won

Bro I think that came out good it is a good lay out of how the system works.

[Stealinhome]

Yea bro my Lab is not looking to good I have been runin 3 lines since I started thinking about dropin it...

[Kelloggs]

It must be possible to gain some profit when we have such a high hitrate

[Panekkkk]

Also - to finish off the season - you could switch to a martingale to recoup your losses (just ensure that you have at least 6 games remaining). At that point you should have a decent profit to safeguard the large bets.

[Panekkkk]

It must be possible to gain some profit when we have such a high hitrate

Well, the season started out well, so had you started the season with this system even with a 3-line Lab you should be up at least 10+ units.

[Blargh]

06/07 is ugly. A 6 game chase loss (or a 7 game chase win) plus a E-B-E chases in a row. That'd be killer in a labouchere. Atleast inbetween every other d/e/f chase there half a dozen or more wins to make up your labouchere for that three year span.

In terms of how much of a bankroll you should chase I think you have to take a look at how much a worst case scenario will require.
In the past three years the worst case scenario winning a game on the 7th game of the chase. Assuming an average odds of -180, you would need 1350 unit bankroll to survive to bet on a Game 7 on a martingale. The average is -185 so far this year and should drop as year the progresses, but if the average drops to -150, you'd need a 610 unit bankroll. After a W you'll be up one unit.
Using a single line labouchere, you would need 212 units to chase to a game 7 and even after a W, you'd be down 60 units. If you're lucky you can get a few quick A game wins to make up thoses losses. If the average odds are around -150 you'll need 86 units and a win will leave down approx 32 units.

So based on the -180 odds, if you are playing martingale, you need to bet a max of 1/1350 of your bankroll or .07% of your bankroll. Using Lab, you would need to bet a max of .47% of your bankroll if you wanted to ensure you survive a worst case scenario based on the past 3 years. If really wanted to be cautious you could use -200 as an expected worst case scenario and bet .045% in martingale and .26% for Lab. Basically this very cautious $100 Lab bettor would have a bankroll of $40,000. If you expect a 100 chase wins over the year, you'd have a 25% ROI. Not suggesting anyone deposits 40 grand into thier book and chase for $100, just giving an example. For the .47% risk tolerant bettor, you'd need approx $21276 to chase $100.

Chase systems are not for the get rich quick crowd. You need to have discipline and patience and accept the small $10 or $25 payouts in the chase as opposed to looking for the $100 or $250 payouts. You have to accept winning a very small %age of your bankroll per chase and believe in long-term growth of the bankroll. And still in the end, pray you're not onboard for the seemingly impossible, like a 10 game chase.

More numbers;
At odds of -180 the chance of reaching a 3 game chase is 1 in 8.
At odds of -180 the chance of reaching a 6 game chase is 1 in 172.
At odds of -180 the chance of reaching a 10 game chase is 1 in 10,578.If we took the average of 107 plays the past three seasons, you should have a 6 game chase once every 1.6 years. A ten game chase happens once every 99 years.
So if you believe that means anything, a 6 game chase is due for this system this year.

I need to get another hobby for my days off. I am scaring myself too much.

[Panekkkk]

I'll have to double check that math blargh, it seems too high for the Lab. Especially with the multiple line Lab where you halve the losses between lines. It also depends where in your lines you are (i.e., how far into the season) for the multi-line Lab. If it's early in the season, on the LEFT side you'll be clearing your standard unit size, if it's late into the season, your LEFT side might be formed from higher numbers due to prior lost chases.


Assuming we started the season on a six-game chase with 3-line lab:

For a 3-line LAB - you're looking at wagering upwards of 40 units to start the season if you hit a 6-game chase (assuming you win on the 6th game, you would recoup 14.7 units -- this includes what you won and what you wagered on your 6th game). This is assuming average -180 odds. This also depends on how you spread your lines, I am using my example posted previously where a GM2 loss is split between GM1 and GM3, and a GM3 loss is split between GM1 and GM2 (my preference).

So we wagered up to 40 units, then recouped 14.7 = 25.3 units lost so far

If let's say, the next chase went up to a 3-game chase:
You would require an extra 30 units with a recoup of 17.2 units if the 3rd game wins

Total invested on a 6-game chase followed by 3-game chase = 25.3 + 30 units = 55.3 units (upon 3rd game win you recoup 17.2 units)

That's not SOOO bad and that's a pretty bad "worst case scenario". If you had started this at the beginning of the season you'd be up a fair bit so you could easily get away with unit sizes of 1% of your bankroll (or maybe even 1.5%). Keep in mind that later in the season those chases could compound so you might be looking at upwards of 80 units or more (however, with a decent win rate, some of those lines should clear so it probably wouldn't be so bad).

But as you can see, that's the beauty of the multi-line Lab = you minimize loses considerably even on a six-game chase.

06/07 had a B-B-F chase. I can resimulate this season from scratch using -180 average lines and I'll come up with something for you guys later. But, I can't see a worse case scenario going past 100 units if you use the system as I suggested. Blarg, the worst-case scenario was a 6-game chase, not a 7 (but I guess going to 7 would be a tad more conservative).

[SkivChef]

egr99,
so which one should we play today?(or when 2 open the same)

[egr99]

I usually play both when they open the same... Another issue so far, hasnt been many big big favs which usually cut down the juice on the PL.

[SkivChef]

Do you treat them both as a b or split amongst the 2?

[Blargh]

Panekk,
I was using a single line Labouchere. A multi-line would cut down on your chase costs but would ofcourse take longer to recoup your losses from previous chases. The only real way to know the best way to place your bets on this system would be to take a few years of actual games and PLs and spend a day or two doing data entry. Historical PL data is hard to find and backtracking each system would be very tedious work.

egr/Skivchef
In terms of who to play tonight, I am face with that debacle as well. I was on the wrong side of it a few nights ago and had the Minn/Chic instead of the Mon/NYI. Both started as equal odds but then I took the play which had the better PL odds, thinking it had statistcally a better chance of winning. Also at the time of my bet, they had the same odds, this was before the odds jumped for Mont and made the NYI a clear top dog. I had work and had to place the bet early.
Personally I feel Toronto has a better chance than Montreal covering the 1.5PL but we're not supposed to be handicapping system plays. Since I picked Minn over NYI as the top dog a few night ago, I am on game 5 of a chase.

I have 30mins to decide on how to make the bet(s). Pick Toronto, or Montreal, or both. Maybe place a smaller hedge bet on the -1.5PL on the same game. If the +1.5PL wins, then either keep the lose on the -1.5Pl to chase on the next long chase of a +1.5PL. Or maybe take the loss on the +1.5PL and put it into the Lab line. Losing a game on an empty-netter really sucks. But losing a game cause you picked the wrong game sucks the most.

[Panekkkk]

I also am conflicted on who to take. egrr backtracked with opening lines which would say Tor I think, sprn used closing lines which would say MTL.

[Panekkkk]

I definitely think that TOR has the better chance to cover, but ... there should not be any handicapping involved. That can get you into trouble.

[Blargh]

I took Tor at +1.5PL tonight. I figure I went when Minn last time they were equal opening odds since thier PL had higher odds, so I may as well be consistent. I will continue to play it that way until some research can be done to show an edge to either play.

[Panekkkk]

Ugh I went with MTL ...

[egr99]

Do you treat them both as a b or split amongst the 2?

sorry for late answer,

i usually split the next bet amongst the 2.. but say if one game starts at 7 and one at 10 i go bigger @ 10 if 7pm game loses... If it wins I would pass for the night... Tonite thats not an option 7:30&8 starts.

We're definatly in troubled waters, need some A/Bs now for a nice winning streak...

egr99

[Blargh]

Looks like another night with two co-top dogs. Atl and Nash both opened at +153 at pinnacle. Both home dogs as well. Nashville has quickly been bet down to +141.

The Toronto game worked out perfect for me. I had Toronto on the +1.5PL but then I hedged it win Dall -1.0. Toronto PL wins and Dallas -1 pushes. Lucky me.

[dimon]

so guys can someone fill me in on the current status...seems like we had 2 teams opened with the same lines last couple of days, split, and I wanted to know what are the chase bet now is?

thanks

[SKiLLsSoLoN]

06/07: abaababcaaabaabaaababcdeaababcabcaaabaabaabababcdefaaabaaabaaaaababcababaaaababcdeababcdeabaabcabaabcababcan/an/an/an/an/ababaabaabcaaabcaababcaaaabcdaaabcababaaababaaabaabcaaaabaaabaababcdababaa

So if you went to G you would of recovered from the loss.... that's not to bad.

I tried to backtest just using the +ML it works well until the break.
Using http://www.sbrforum.com/Scores/NHL+Odds/20081028.aspx and the open lines.

[egr99]

06/07 was the year with the loss, one thing i noticed was that year the totals were 5-5.5-6-6.5 etc... The last 2years totals were mostly 5-5.5 & some 6. So far this year we're seing alot more totals along the lines of 06/07 so this might not be a coincidence. The same way majority of books don't allow you to bet -1.5&over etc... Could be a reason why PLs arent doing that well... Unfortunatly, im not sure I will continue this chase system, its not really worth it for me right now...good luck to those who continue...

egr99

[Panekkkk]

Hey egr, I'm not so sure that there have been more 2-goal games this year. Look at how this system started, it started fantastic and was bound to regress. In fact, I recall reading an article an article on SBR regarding how many 1-goal games there had been to start the season. I'm going to stick with this, but have decreased the unit size. I'm still undecided on how to handle the opening/closing line discretions as I got stung by MTL last night (I knew that they would get smoked and just didn't want to doubt the system).

If we can get some solid data on totals this year compared to last then you may have a case.

Anyone?

[Panekkkk]

If possible, egr or sprn, could you guys go back to the days in which two games had the same opening line, and can you track the most successful outcome (whether taking the ML that ended up closing the largest etc.)?

Thx

[Bluehorseshoe]

06/07 was the year with the loss, one thing i noticed was that year the totals were 5-5.5-6-6.5 etc... The last 2years totals were mostly 5-5.5 & some 6. So far this year we're seing alot more totals along the lines of 06/07 so this might not be a coincidence. The same way majority of books don't allow you to bet -1.5&over etc... Could be a reason why PLs arent doing that well... Unfortunatly, im not sure I will continue this chase system, its not really worth it for me right now...good luck to those who continue... egr99

So why not adjust your system to apply to games with total of 5 1/2 and under? Don't use games of 5 1/2 and up. (5 1/2 over -120 and up.) There is more of a correlation between taking a low total and getting 1 1/2 goals. It has to weed out some of the losses.

[Panekkkk]

So why not adjust your system to apply to games with total of 5 1/2 and under? Don't use games of 5 1/2 and up. (5 1/2 over -120 and up.) There is more of a correlation between taking a low total and getting 1 1/2 goals. It has to weed out some of the losses.

You never just pull such stunts on the fly without checking them first. For all we know, all the +1.5 wins came in games with totals of 6 (not likely, but without checking you never know). That may be a good filter to check though.

SPRN or EGR, please check the results if you took games which closed with lines <6 (5 or 5.5).

[sprn]

I won't have the time to check that this week. If you want to, you can do it yourself at http://www.sbrforum.com/Scores/NHL+Odds.aspx

[egr99]

Didnt track O/U during my backtesting.. but did keep the scores...

06/07: 4-1 LOSS
4-5 WIN
3-4 WIN
0-2 LOSS
2-3 WIN
0-2 LOSS
2-4 LOSS
5-4 WIN
6-5 WIN
4-3 WIN
0-5 LOSS
4-3 WIN
5-3 WIN
1-9 LOSS
4-1 WIN
2-1 WIN
4-5 WIN
2-4 LOSS
3-2 WIN
2-5 LOSS
1-6 LOSS
1-3 LOSS
2-7 LOSS
2-3 WIN
2-3 WIN
4-2 LOSS
6-5 WIN
2-5 LOSS
1-4 LOSS
2-1 WIN
2-6 LOSS
1-4 LOSS
4-3 WIN
2-3 WIN
6-5 WIN
0-3 LOSS
1-2 WIN
4-5 WIN
0-2 LOSS
2-3 WIN
2-4 WIN
0-3 LOSS
7-4 WIN
2-6 LOSS
4-3 WIN
1-6 LOSS
4-6 LOSS
2-7 LOSS
0-5 LOSS
3-6 LOSS
0-6 LOSS
3-2 WIN
4-2 WIN
3-5 LOSS
1-2 WIN
0-1 WIN
1-2 WIN
0-6 LOSS
1-2 WIN
4-3 WIN
3-2 WIN
6-5 WIN
3-0 WIN
0-3 LOSS
3-4 WIN
0-2 LOSS
3-5 LOSS
1-2 WIN
0-4 LOSS
3-1 WIN
1-4 LOSS
4-2 WIN
3-2 WIN
2-3 WIN
2-1 WIN
1-4 LOSS
4-1 WIN
0-5 LOSS
2-4 LOSS
1-3 LOSS
0-7 LOSS


2-3 WIN
1-3 LOSS
3-2 WIN
4-6 LOSS
0-5 LOSS
2-6 LOSS
1-3 LOSS
1-2 WIN
0-3 LOSS
2-3 WIN
4-3 WIN
2-5 LOSS
1-6 LOSS
2-1 WIN
2-5 LOSS
3-2 WIN
4-2 WIN
0-2 LOSS
3-6 LOSS
4-3 WIN
1-3 LOSS
6-2 WIN
3-6 LOSS
2-5 LOSS
3-4 WIN
3-6 LOSS
N/A N/A
N/A N/A
N/A N/A
N/A N/A
N/A N/A
3-2 WIN
1-3 LOSS
2-1 WIN
1-3 WIN
1-7 LOSS
1-2 WIN
4-2 WIN
3-5 LOSS
2-4 LOSS
3-4 WIN
4-3 WIN
3-2 WIN
2-4 LOSS
0-2 LOSS
1-2 WIN
4-1 WIN
4-7 LOSS
1-6 WIN
3-5 LOSS
0-4 LOSS
2-3 WIN
0-1 WIN
5-3 WIN
4-3 WIN
1-4 LOSS
3-6 LOSS
2-4 LOSS
6-5 WIN
4-3 WIN
4-2 WIN
3-5 LOSS
2-5 LOSS
5-6 WIN
0-2 LOSS
3-4 WIN
2-6 LOSS
2-3 WIN
3-4 WIN
1-2 WIN
0-3 LOSS
1-2 WIN
1-5 LOSS
2-3 WIN
1-2 WIN
6-3 WIN
2-4 LOSS
2-3 WIN
5-4 WIN
2-5 LOSS
2-5 LOSS
2-3 WIN
5-3 WIN
2-1 WIN
2-3 WIN
0-5 LOSS
2-1 WIN
3-4 WIN
3-2 WIN
0-5 LOSS
0-1 WIN
3-4 WIN
3-1 LOSS
4-3 WIN
2-4 LOSS
2-5 LOSS
2-6 LOSS
4-2 WIN
0-3 LOSS
3-2 WIN
0-3 LOSS
7-2 WIN
3-2 WIN
2-3 WIN

egr99

[dimon]

so what is the play tonight?

[egr99]

during my backtesting i used: http://www.sbrforum.com/Scores/NHL+Odds

Yesterday it was TOR the clear opening high fav but as today, the URL above isn't listing opening lines... Weird... So yesterday the play should have been TOR according to this... Kind of weird the friggen site isn't working all of sudden during game day w/ opening lines anymore... ?#%?%#

egr99

[Blargh]

This year is not much worse than last season.
Last year the system was 17-7 in October for a 70.8 win pct.
This year the system is 17-9 so far for a 65 win pct.

Also, One goal games are down slightly from 08/09 and 06/07 but are up slightly from 07/08. In the past four years one goal games rang from 44.9% to 46.1%.
If you go to NHL.com, click on stats and team stats you go to a page where you can get a drop down menu to get goals-game. That has the W-L records of all the teams for 1g, 2g and 3+g games.

[Panekkkk]

thanks sprn, I just wasn't sure if you had entered all this data into a spreadsheet for easy tracking

I'll have a look later

[Panekkkk]

Both Tor and Mtl opened at +177 yesterday