Possible new system

sprn · 10-19-09, 10:28 AM

Now I've backtracked the 2007/2008 season and it ended 115-0 with the average odds of 1.66 (-150). Here's the breakdown:
A-bets: 70-45
B-bets: 35-10
C-bets: 6-4
D-bets: 4-0
E-bets: 0-0
F-bets: 0-0

In total, for the past two seasons the system is 224-0 in chases.

PacmanJr_00 · 10-19-09, 11:30 AM

looks good with labourchere...good thinking

So, right now, you are on bet [B] since DET @ -260 failed to cover -1.5 goals?

PacmanJr_00 · 10-19-09, 11:38 AM

I wonder if their is a qualifier to stay away from some of the [C] bets. For example, could you stay away from nights like tonight where the highest favorites is only -140 since it is a small card tonight.

sprn · 10-19-09, 11:40 AM

No, the last play was a C-bet on Nashville Predators and they covered +1.5 goals against Washington. Next bet is a A-bet.

sprn · 10-19-09, 11:41 AM

Originally posted by PacmanJr_00

I wonder if their is a qualifier to stay away from some of the [C] bets. For example, could you stay away from nights like tonight where the highest favorites is only -140 since it is a small card tonight.

I won't be betting tonight since there's no big underdog in any of the games being played tonight.

Anders · 10-19-09, 11:51 AM

Im also betting the biggest ML home-dog +1.5. Im not using Martingale though.

Did not have thoose numbers, looks very nice, thanks sprn.

PacmanJr_00 · 10-19-09, 11:52 AM

I see I failed to correctly read your post. Sorry for my mistake. Kind of crazy the heavy favorite would fail to cover more often than not.

JIMBOK · 10-19-09, 12:23 PM

what is a 6 game chase and the diff between a b c d game ect??

Panekkkk · 10-19-09, 02:10 PM

Good thinking sprn. This would definitely work best with a Labouchere betting system but even with that you're looking at huge number of units wagered once you're into a 5 or 6-game chase!

Panekkkk · 10-19-09, 02:26 PM

srn, did you count days where only 1 or 2 teams were playing?

And did most of the A bet wins come in October?

sprn · 10-19-09, 03:31 PM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

srn, did you count days where only 1 or 2 teams were playing?

And did most of the A bet wins come in October?

I skipped days with only one game but counted days with 2 games.

The most profitable month for the past two seasons have been March, so that is presumably the month with most A-bet wins.

SkivChef · 10-19-09, 04:01 PM

sprn, since your not playing tonite do you have a minimum for skipping a play?

supra23 · 10-19-09, 04:18 PM

im kind of confused on your system sprn, it seems profitable if i understand correctly....so basically for instance you look at all the games being played today and say for instance the detroit redwings are -200 favorites against the nyi....would you then bet the puckline of +1.5 for the nyi and use that as an A bet...then if that lost keep looking day after day for another -200 or more favorite and bet on the opposite team their playing on the puckline of +1.5 and consider that a B bet and so on and so forth.....

Anders · 10-19-09, 04:39 PM

supra

Just look for the biggest home dog and bet the PL. You dont need any speciell lines, just bet the biggest home dog.

egr99 · 10-19-09, 04:51 PM

I do something very similar, good work on figuring this out. Hope it performs like in the past this year !

egr99

egr99 · 10-19-09, 05:02 PM

In 2006-2007, Nov 18 to Nov 23 there was a series loss... Odds for those games were (in order) +105, +105, -130, -235, -105, -175.

Acrhived opening odds ofcourse...

My stats do differ then yours a little, I did use OPENING lines in testing and on nights when 2+ games were tied if one WON and one LOST I would count the loss as the play in my back tracking.

My stats are as follows:

2006/07: 47 - A, 34 - B, 12 - C, 2 - D, 3 - E, 1 Loss (stated above) for 98 -1.

2007/08: 71 - A, 34 - B, 7 - C, 5 - D for 117 - 0.

2008/09: 60 - A, 30 - B, 12 - C, 3 - D, 2 - E for 107 - 0.

Our stats are pretty close, I tried to keep them as pure as possible with no filters and "WORSE CASE SCENARIO" outcomes.

egr99

sprn · 10-19-09, 05:08 PM

Originally posted by SkivChef

sprn, since your not playing tonite do you have a minimum for skipping a play?

I figured this system out very recently so I've only made 3 bets this season. The only filter I have at the moment is to not place a bet when there's only one game on the card.

The reason that I'm not placing any system bet tonight is that there's no big underdog, resulting in some very low odds for the +1.5 PL. Just a gut feeling from my side. If one decides to play tonight the play would be LA Kings +1.5 against DAL Stars.

sprn · 10-19-09, 05:15 PM

egr99: I've used the CLOSING ML lines for my backtracking. If two teams were at the same ML closing line I picked the one with the highest ML opening line. I also checked to see if the team with the closing ML line had the highest opening ML line, which in most cases were true. If not, I noted the score in the other game too and in most cases that one would've ended up the same way. If it didn't I put a * in my spreadsheet next to that game. This happened less than 10 times in two seasons combined and it actually was more losses what would've been wins than vice versa.

EDIT: I looked into the loss you mentioned. With the only filter I have when backtracking (don't play on days with only one game), Nov 23rd would've been a no-play and STL Blues would've covered on the 24th. It's also highely unlikely that I would've played the Sharks on the 21st, but I would include it in the tracking though.

supra: That's correct. This system doesn't take home/away teams into account as Anders wrote though, just the biggest ML underdog of the day regardless of playing a home or road game.

Anders · 10-19-09, 05:27 PM

Yeah supra, ignore my post.

My system is only home-dogs but this is biggest home or away dog.

I missed that, sorry.

We should really agree on a line to bet or always bet the biggest dog no matter what line.

egr99 · 10-19-09, 05:43 PM

Originally posted by sprn

egr99: I've used the CLOSING ML lines for my backtracking. If two teams were at the same ML closing line I picked the one with the highest ML opening line. I also checked to see if the team with the closing ML line had the highest opening ML line, which in most cases were true. If not, I noted the score in the other game too and in most cases that one would've ended up the same way. If it didn't I put a * in my spreadsheet next to that game. This happened less than 10 times in two seasons combined and it actually was more losses what would've been wins than vice versa.

EDIT: I looked into the loss you mentioned. With the only filter I have when backtracking (don't play on days with only one game), Nov 23rd would've been a no-play and STL Blues would've covered on the 24th. It's also highely unlikely that I would've played the Sharks on the 21st, but I would include it in the tracking though.

supra: That's correct. This system doesn't take home/away teams into account as Anders wrote though, just the biggest ML underdog of the day regardless of playing a home or road game.

Using closing lines I think is a bad idea, because there is different closing lines at different shops as well as the archived closing lines vary from site/site.

As for not playing games on days with 1 game, it is a possible filter, however you are giving up some wins.

2006/2007: 11-1 on 1game days. The loss was the one you stated above.
2007/08: 3-2.
2008/09: 2-0.

I did my backtesting ths way to eliminate 100% of human judgement calls to keep the numbers pure.

If you use proper MM w/ a good recovery plan when taking a loss, you should be ok either way.

egr99

supra23 · 10-19-09, 05:47 PM

ok sprn and anders thanks for clearing things up...this looks like you guys have something here with this system...i wish i could understand how this would work with the labouchere style betting, but il just stick with martingale

...we should track the plays in this thread, i can see this being quite successful with how crazy how can be....good work fellas

Panekkkk · 10-19-09, 06:01 PM

Originally posted by egr99

In 2006-2007, Nov 18 to Nov 23 there was a series loss... Odds for those games were (in order) +105, +105, -130, -235, -105, -175.

Acrhived opening odds ofcourse...

My stats do differ then yours a little, I did use OPENING lines in testing and on nights when 2+ games were tied if one WON and one LOST I would count the loss as the play in my back tracking.

My stats are as follows:

2006/07: 47 - A, 34 - B, 12 - C, 2 - D, 3 - E, 1 Loss (stated above) for 98 -1.

2007/08: 71 - A, 34 - B, 7 - C, 5 - D for 117 - 0.

2008/09: 60 - A, 30 - B, 12 - C, 3 - D, 2 - E for 107 - 0.

Our stats are pretty close, I tried to keep them as pure as possible with no filters and "WORSE CASE SCENARIO" outcomes.

egr99

egr what source were you using for backtracking? Your results are both fairly comparable so not too much cause for concern.

I think playing opening lines more accurately reflects how a bettor may approach this, since it's not always possible to wait right before close to place your bet. However, the longer you wait in some instances the better the line.

Thx bro

Hybris · 10-19-09, 06:12 PM

Is this going to be JMs next system

Panekkkk · 10-19-09, 06:33 PM

Out of interest, egr or sprn, how many of the bets were won on ML and not +1.5 PL?

Anders · 10-19-09, 07:10 PM

Would it not be interesting to just make it a 3 game chase?

Last 2 years you would have lost 4 times/year, around 9.5 units each time, a total of 38 units.

You would have won around 75 units. 75-38=37u in profit.

Let say you have 950$ per chase to bet with, 100-250-600. Youre total bankroll is 4k.

Your profit would then be 7500-3800=3700$

If you chase 6 games you must start off much lower but lets say you use all of the br, 4k. Bets 30-70-170-410-1k-2.4k

You would win 20$ in every chase. 20*115=2300 or 20*109=2180. So you make less and dont forget, 1 loss will cost you 4k.

I def. like the 3 game chase better.

Thoughts?

Fairthorne66 · 10-19-09, 07:39 PM

Can somebody explain this to a guy who's always gambled, but never followed a system?? Key terms: A,B,C,D,E,F bets....how to bet the system....etc. Martingale? What? I'm so eager to learn!!

Much, much appreciated.

sprn · 10-19-09, 09:04 PM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

Out of interest, egr or sprn, how many of the bets were won on ML and not +1.5 PL?

58 of 174 in the 08/09 season and 63 of 177 in the 07/08 season.

PacmanJr_00 · 10-19-09, 09:06 PM

wasn't a recommended play tonight but it looks like it will be a winner..+1.5 was -290 though..

egr99 · 10-20-09, 01:30 AM

Originally posted by sprn

58 of 174 in the 08/09 season and 63 of 177 in the 07/08 season.

That is something I noticed myself... Definatly worth looking at more in depth with a creative MM strategy.

egr99

egr99 · 10-20-09, 01:33 AM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

egr what source were you using for backtracking? Your results are both fairly comparable so not too much cause for concern.

I think playing opening lines more accurately reflects how a bettor may approach this, since it's not always possible to wait right before close to place your bet. However, the longer you wait in some instances the better the line.

Thx bro

Opening lines is a must because what happens if your backtracking with closing lines depends on the line movement. What if the biggest fav of the day at the start of the 7pm games isn't the closing line fav of the day because of line movement on the 10pm games?

Granted our stats are very close, im not bashing sprn's results one bit, just explaining why I used opening and not closing lines.

egr99

egr99 · 10-20-09, 01:37 AM

Originally posted by PacmanJr_00

wasn't a recommended play tonight but it looks like it will be a winner..+1.5 was -290 though..

The worse they look, the more they come in it seems. Anyway, juice is high on this system so its all about your MM. As with any other type of betting you need to have multiple outs to place your bets, especially to get down bigger on the 4/5/6 games of the chase but to always save on juice as well.

Today for instance, i got LAK +1.5 @ -245... It was available as high as -280 at the time I placed my play. 35cents of juice down the line saves you big bucks on a chass loss.

egr99

sprn · 10-20-09, 06:19 AM

Originally posted by egr99

That is something I noticed myself... Definatly worth looking at more in depth with a creative MM strategy.

egr99

Maybe it should be looked into how many of the wins was at home and how many was on the road. If a big majority of the wins came either at home or on the road I'm sure we have another nice system

floridagolfer · 10-20-09, 06:54 AM

Originally posted by egr99

The worse they look, the more they come in it seems. Anyway, juice is high on this system so its all about your MM. As with any other type of betting you need to have multiple outs to place your bets, especially to get down bigger on the 4/5/6 games of the chase but to always save on juice as well.

Today for instance, i got LAK +1.5 @ -245... It was available as high as -280 at the time I placed my play. 35cents of juice down the line saves you big bucks on a chass loss.

egr99

This is what I've been thinking, also, as I read this post. By only playing teams at +1.5, aren't the overwhelming majority of the plays going to be -200 or higher? That seems very expensive.

TodaysAction · 10-20-09, 07:38 AM

Originally posted by Fairthorne66

Can somebody explain this to a guy who's always gambled, but never followed a system?? Key terms: A,B,C,D,E,F bets....how to bet the system....etc. Martingale? What? I'm so eager to learn!!

Much, much appreciated.

What they are referring to is the play in a series (of games) where A is game one, B is game two ... F is game six to win a certain portion of money/cash/your term.