Hotcross NHL 2018-19 Thread

[pimike]

I’m watching. My Islanders and Sharks pick worked perfectly game 1.

Let’s get em pal.

[hotcross]

Sharks have been a confusing team all year. They were the only team who CONVINCINGLY won last night. Do they finally go all the way?

[pimike]

Sharks have been a confusing team all year. They were the only team who CONVINCINGLY won last night. Do they finally go all the way?

All the way? Not sure about that

[pimike]

Sharks have been a confusing team all year. They were the only team who CONVINCINGLY won last night. Do they finally go all the way?

12-1 why not put something on em. I like it.

Lol

[hotcross]

added ::

CAROLINA +142 regulation only ML // 1 unit to win 1.42
*push if game goes to Overtime

Not only is this one unit added to Carolina for tonight, but since the odds have moved towards the Capitals, the book offers better odds on the dog to win in regulation time (as always with this type of wager). So this game I now have 3 separate wagers on Carolina which all will be individually graded. To summarize:

CAR ML including OT +126
CAR reg. ML +142 (pushes if OT)
CAR -0.5 +206 regulation win (must win in regulation time)

[hotcross]

strange things sometimes. Halfway thru the game, 3 goals on 11 total shots in favor of Washington.

[hotcross]

0-3 last night for -3.00 units

Carolina almost completed the same comeback that Columbus made the first night after being down 3-0 score early.

It was undisciplined of me to add the additional units on game 1 on the road in Washington. I think the series is not done, although many people might be thinking it is. Even if Carolina loses game 2 in Washington, they could still go on to win the series if they can win both home games and tie up the series. So I've added just one unit more on Carolina at the current series price, and again will be willing to add-on even if they lose game 2.


Friday April 12

VEGAS +108 first period moneyline // 1 unit to win 1.08
*push if tied after 1p

SERIES VEGAS +163 (down 0-1 games) // 1 unit to win 1.63

SERIES CAROLINA +238 (down 0-1 games) // 1 unit to win 2.38


already pending:

SERIES NY ISLANDERS +137 // 2 units to win 2.74

SERIES WINNIPEG +115 // 5 units to win 5.75

SERIES CAROLINA +128 // 1 unit to win 1.28

[hotcross]

^^^not a big difference, but the original Carolina Series odds were +126
so that bottom line should read 1 unit to win 1.26


I will do an update summary at the end of each Playoff Round. Will keep a running playoff tally until then.

[hotcross]

Results: Apr.10,11,12 = -3.00 units (1-4-1 W/L/D)

For crying out loud! Vegas goes ahead 3-0 score pretty quickly tonight, penalties start flying both sides, and Sharks score 3 in a row before the end of the first period. Was sitting here wondering why I didn't bet more on the first period Vegas, but then it pushed.

So have all these series picks pending regardless of how the rest of tonight's games finish. I might be buying out of a partial amount of the Islanders series once the odds become available. Or could take Penguins to win game 3 at home.

pending:

SERIES NY ISLANDERS +137 // 2 units to win 2.74

SERIES WINNIPEG +115 // 5 units to win 5.75

SERIES CAROLINA +126 // 1 unit to win 1.26
SERIES CAROLINA +238 (down 0-1 games) // 1 unit to win 2.38

SERIES VEGAS +163 (down 0-1 games) // 1 unit to win 1.63

[hotcross]

Saturday April 13 - Game 2

CAROLINA +140 ML // 2 units to win 2.80


This is where I especially kick myself for firing away 3 units on Carolina in game 1. Percentage play for them winning game 2. As shown above, already have a couple units on them winning the series, and those odds have come down a little from where it opened after the loss in game 1 (was +238, but currently offered at +220).

Since this is the earliest game on today's schedule (3pm eastern) and the games are pretty well staggered times, I'll begin here.


Not buying out of the Islanders series.

[hotcross]

POS Mrazek lets in 2 on 6 shots early. Capitals are outplaying them, but it's ridiculous. Gotta change goalies, he's not giving them a chance.

Edit: Hurricanes get one back towards the end of the first period. 2-1 score....wait maybe not, challenging for goalie interference.

[hotcross]

added ::

CAROLINA +272 ML (LIVE end 1p, down 2-1 score) // 1 unit to win 2.72

[hotcross]

game is getting nasty

[hotcross]

3-3 tie going to Overtime. I'm in a great position here with big +plus odds on what is now essentially a true coinflip game (maybe 55% Capitals advantage). Need this one to come in and keep my own playoff hopes alive.

Not gonna play any of today's remaining schedule, but here are my leans:

Nashville ML -155
Boston ML -140/-145 varies
Colorado +190 ML
Over 6 -115 COL@CGY

[hotcross]

that was quick

[Philmill]

The game was moving your way.... I thought Carolina was going to get this one....

Damn... tuff luck Buddy...

[hotcross]

Results: Apr.10-13 = -6.00 units (1-6-1 W/L/D)

That was a backbreaker for me. Thought I had seen some things telling me Carolina wins this series. Well the moment was too big for them. Gave up 3 early goals in game 1, another 2 goals today, along with Michael Ferland earning himself a 5-minute match penalty with a likely suspension on the way for a hit to head penalty. Just giving it away. So now Hurricanes are only 10% chance to win the series, against a team who has dominated them and defending champions. Cannot waste anymore money on them, my mistake for going too big on them. Also got a worthless looking series bet on Winnipeg. I'll try to re-group and maybe try to catch a unit or two. But this looks like it will come pretty close to wiping out all of the season profit I had achieved....so what does that amount to?...a colossal waste of time.


pending:

SERIES NY ISLANDERS +137 // 2 units to win 2.74

SERIES WINNIPEG +115 // 5 units to win 5.75

SERIES CAROLINA +126 // 1 unit to win 1.26
SERIES CAROLINA +238 (odds: down 0-1 games) // 1 unit to win 2.38

SERIES VEGAS +163 (odds: down 0-1 games) // 1 unit to win 1.63

[hotcross]

Saturday April 13 - Game 2

COLORADO +180 ML // 1.50 units to win 2.70

F' it. Play my lean on the late game. Colorado lost in 6 games in the first round last year to Nashville, after losing the first two games on the road. I figure they've been "here" before and can springboard from that experience perhaps. After getting shutout last game, they can't be worse tonight. Calgary goalie Mike Smith had a big game 1, but can he repeat? The odds are too good if you consider the first 2 games should be split about 45% of the time.

[hotcross]

Sunday April 14 - game 3

VEGAS -155 regulation only ML // 1.55 units to win 1
*push if game goes to Overtime

[hotcross]

Most recent past two picks won, gaining back +3.70 units


Monday April 15

CALGARY -112 ML // 1.12 units to win 1

DALLAS -120 regulation only moneyline // 1.20 units to win 1
*push if game goes to Overtime

SERIES DALLAS +103 (tied 1-1 games) // 2 units to win 2.06

Tues. April 16 - early odds

WINNIPEG +130 ML // 2.50 units to win 3.25

SERIES WINNIPEG +240 (down 2-1 games) // 2.50 units to win 6


Locked in Winnipeg overnight for Tuesday's game, and added units to my series position at the current odds. I've seen enough in game 3 to believe St. Louis might not win another game.

[hotcross]

0-2 last night on games for -2.32 units. Still got all the series picks alive, plus Winnipeg game ML tonight.

Tuesday April 16

COLUMBUS +117 regulation only moneyline // 2 units to win 2.34
*push if game goes to Overtime

[eddycash]

Bol

[hotcross]

Playoff Results:

Previous Last Updated = -6.00 units (1-6-1 W/L/D)

New results: from Saturday Late Game Apr.13 thru Tuesday Apr.16:

+2.70 COLORADO +180 ML (Apr.13)
+1.00 VEGAS -155 reg. only ML (Apr.14)
- 1.12 CALGARY -112 ML (Apr.15)
- 1.20 DALLAS -120 reg. only ML (Apr.15)
+3.25 WINNIPEG +130 ML (Apr.16)
+2.34 COLUMBUS +117 reg.only ML (Apr.16)
+2.74 SERIES NY ISLANDERS +137 (settled Apr.16)
-------
+9.71 units from New Results (5-2 W/L)

///////////////////////////////////////////////////

PLAYOFFS TOTAL RESULTS = +3.71 units (6-8-1 W/L/D)
&
pending:

SERIES WINNIPEG +115 // 5 units to win 5.75

SERIES WINNIPEG +240 (odds: down 2-1 games) // 2.50 units to win 6.00

SERIES CAROLINA +126 // 1 unit to win 1.26

SERIES CAROLINA +238 (odds: down 0-1 games) // 1 unit to win 2.38

SERIES VEGAS +163 (odds: down 0-1 games) // 1 unit to win 1.63

SERIES DALLAS +103 (odds: tied 1-1 games) // 2 units to win 2.06

///////////////////////////


Was on mobile the past couple days, so here tonight I had time to do a proper update on the computer. I felt real discouraged Saturday when Carolina lost the second game in Washington because I put too much stock in them and had to back-out of my plan to continue betting on them, and had to reload my wagering ammunition. Of course they won Monday night at home after that. Wish I had waited for that spot, but I still make those kind of mistakes...trying to improve...said it before.

Obviously tonight was a big Overtime win for Winnipeg on the road, series tied 2-2 now with St. Louis. Neither of those teams have won a home game in the series yet. It was big for me also because I felt a strong read on Winnipeg after their performance in game 3 on Sunday....woulda been real disappointed if they lost tonight. But the Jets did what they needed to do, giving my both my positions on them in the series new life. Have 7.50 units total at risk on them taking the series for a total possible win of 11.75 units. Don't know yet what the series new odds offered will be going into game 5 in Manitoba. And if Winnipeg wins that game 5, they will have a chance to closeout the series in St. Louis after that....at which time I could certainly bet St. Louis at +plus odds on the series to guarantee some profit. But I'm 90% sure going to just let it ride with Winnipeg, stay with my read, unless the odds are big enough to justify any type of hedge.

Dallas on the other hand, it's kinda the same position I'm in with Carolina. I tried to get "out in front" of both those series, but the game results went against me. I want to take Dallas again for upcoming game 4 and add to the series position at the new better odds, but will probably pass. My initial read about the Dallas vs Nashville series was that it will go 7 games.

Thread up to date now.

[hotcross]

Saturday Apr.20

LIVE WINNIPEG +890 ML (end 2p down 2-0) // 1 unit to win 8.90


Obviously this is a waste of money, but I'll burn a unit at these odds. I guess it would have been similar in game 5 when St.Louis was down 2-0 entering the third period.... more comments on that later. This Live bet "just in case"

[hotcross]

Results: Apr.20 = -8.50 units (0-3 W/L; Winnipeg Series x2 and Live game x1)
Playoffs Total = -4.79 units (6-11-1 W/L/D)


How does Winnipeg lose game 5 at home with the 2-0 lead going into the 3rd period? And the way/timing which it went down?? The better team won the series, that I can admit, but how Winnipeg doesn't hold that lead with 20-minutes remaining in a huge playoff game at home is astounding (I mean ANY team should hold that lead in that spot). I really do think they looked tired towards the end of the game, wore out, probably mentally as well as physically. Also think it shows their lack of "clutch factor" because they had at least one if not two solid chances to make that score 3-0 and found ways not to do it. If anyone watched the game I'm sure you follow what I'm saying.

Meantime, Carolina keeps losing players to injury, making their chances real slim in that series with Washington.

pending:

SERIES CAROLINA +126 // 1 unit to win 1.26

SERIES CAROLINA +238 (odds: down 0-1 games) // 1 unit to win 2.38

SERIES VEGAS +163 (odds: down 0-1 games) // 1 unit to win 1.63

SERIES DALLAS +103 (odds: tied 1-1 games) // 2 units to win 2.06

[hotcross]

Sunday April 21 - Game 6

OVERTIME BOS@TOR +280 // 1 unit to win 2.80

[hotcross]

adding ::

SAN JOSE +165 ML // 4 units to win 6.60

SERIES SAN JOSE +372 (odds: down 3-2 games) // 1 unit to win 3.72


Because I already have one unit at +163 on Vegas to win the Series, I'm putting a unit on San Jose winning the series at today's price of +372. That guarantees either a small profit, or 2.72 units profit if the Sharks do win game 6 and 7.

I'm also taking the Sharks in the game with these odds being way too good to pass up. Calculating what do you give Vegas for home game, plus the difference in goalie play....so does it really add up to -180 Vegas favored in an elimination game?? Remember the series price opened at -115 each side evenly, with Vegas catching more of the bids prior to game 1. Let's not forget the Sharks finished 2nd in this division, ahead of Vegas by 8 points in the standings, and +9 higher goal differential than Vegas. This Sharks team has been a confusing one for me during the ups and downs of the season, but aside from their goalie deficiency, this version of the team is the best they've had in awhile.

Today's game could depend heavily on how the referees decide to call penalties, and although I don't have inside information, my guess is they might call it pretty tight due to the shenanigans earlier in the series involving Reaves, Kane, Thornton, etc. It is Easter Sunday after all, they don't want guys getting out of hand. Sharks have the better special teams in that case. Both teams want to win, of course, but also Tomas Hertl "guaranteed" a game 7 after they won game 5....so do the Sharks make good on his promise, or does Vegas make him eat those words...we'll find out shortly. I'm taking a gamble on this big time, but I think the true probability is more like 55% Vegas, perhaps as high as 60%. So not only am I choosing to believe the Sharks win today, there is value in the odds also.

[hotcross]

adding ::

OVERTIME +315 SJ@VGS // 1 unit to win 3.15


My feeling was one of the games should see Overtime today. I played the Toronto one and they didn't make much of their 6 on 5 at the end of the game. Was gonna let this one go, but decided to follow-thru on it now, better odds offered on it because of the high favorite odds on the Vegas team.

One other interesting thing I wanted to mention in my notes, these teams split the regular season meetings 2-2 games, splitting their home games as well (both teams were 1-1 at home). San Jose only won by 1 goal in both of their wins, while Vegas coasted in their wins by 6-0 and 7-3 scores. I think today should be a tight one.

[hotcross]

Results: Apr.21 = +8.75 units (2-1 W/L)
Playoffs Total = +3.96 units (8-12-1 W/L/D)


Ohhhhh yeaaaah! Nailed that Sharks win, shorthanded goal by Tomas Hertl...in OOOOOvertime! 2nd OT period, in fact.
Cleared me of the Winnipeg debacle.


pending:

SERIES CAROLINA +126 // 1 unit to win 1.26
SERIES CAROLINA +238 (odds: down 0-1 games) // 1 unit to win 2.38

SERIES VEGAS +163 (odds: down 0-1 games) // 1 unit to win 1.63
SERIES SAN JOSE +372 (odds: down 3-2 games) // 1 unit to win 3.72

SERIES DALLAS +103 (odds: tied 1-1 games) // 2 units to win 2.06

[Totolover1409]

Nice call on the sharks!

[hotcross]

Wednesday Apr.24

LIVE CAROLINA +450 ML (end 1p down 2-0) // 1 unit to win 4.50

Probably burning a unit, but good odds with the frequency of comeback wins we've seen in this Round 1

[hotcross]

PLAYOFFS RECAP: Round 1 results: Wednesday April 10 – Wed.April 24

---- Apr.10 – Game 1 -----
+2.00 UNDER 5.5 -110 STL@WPG ---> score 2-1 STL road win at WPG
- 2.00 UNDER 6 +106 VGS@SJ ---> score 5-2 VGS road loss at SJ

---- Apr.11 – Game 1 -----
- 1.00 CAROLINA +128 ML ---> score 4-2 road loss at WSH
- 1.00 CAROLINA -0.5 +206 regulation win
- 1.00 CAROLINA+142 regulation only ML

---- Apr.12 – Game 2 -----
+0 push VEGAS +108 first period moneyline ---> score 3-3 tie end 1p (Final 5-3 VGS road win at SJ)

---- Apr.13 – Game 2 -----
- 2.00 CAROLINA +140 ML --->score 4-3road Overtime loss at WSH
- 1.00 LIVE: CAROLINA +272 ML (LIVE end 1p, down 2-1 score)
+2.70 COLORADO +180 ML ---> score 3-2 road Overtime win at CGY

---- Apr.14 – Game 3-----
+1.00 VEGAS -155 regulation only ML ---> score 6-3 home win vs SJ

---- Apr.15 – Game 3-----
- 1.12 CALGARY -112 ML ---> score 6-2 road loss at COL
- 1.20 DALLAS -120 regulation only ML ---> score 3-2 home loss vs NSH

---- Apr.16 – Game 4-----
+3.25 WINNIPEG +130 ML ---> score 2-1 road Overtime win at STL
+2.34 COLUMBUS +117 regulation only ML ---> score 7-3 home win vs TB (CBJ sweeps series)

---- Apr.20 – Game 6-----
- 1.00 LIVE: WINNIPEG +890 ML (LIVE end 2p, down 2-0 score) ---> final 3-2 road loss at STL


---- Apr.21 – Game 6-----
- 1.00 OVERTIME BOS@TOR +280 --->score 4-2 TOR home loss vs BOS
+6.60 SAN JOSE +165 ML ---> score 2-1 road 2xOvertime win at VGS
+3.15 OVERTIME +315 SJ@VGS

---- Apr.24 – Game 7-----
+4.50 LIVE: CAROLINA +450 ML (LIVE end 1p, down 2-0 score) ---> final 4-3 road 2xOvertime win at WSH


---- SERIES BETS – Round 1-----

+2.74 SERIES NY ISLANDERS +137 ---> won 4-0 games vs PITT

- 5.00 SERIES WINNIPEG +115 ---> lost 4-2 games vs STL
- 2.50 SERIES WINNIPEG +240 (odds: down 2-1 games)

+2.06 SERIES DALLAS +103 (odds: tied 1-1 games) ---> won 4-2 games vs NSH

- 1.00 SERIES VEGAS +163 (odds: down 0-1 games)
+3.72 SERIES SAN JOSE +372 (odds: down 3-2 games) ---> won 4-3 games vs VGS

+1.26 SERIES CAROLINA +126
+2.38 SERIES CAROLINA +238 (odds: down 0-1 games) ---> won 4-3 games vs WSH

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PLAYOFFS ROUND 1 = +16.88 units (W/L = 13-13-1 = .500 pct)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REGULAR SEASON = +15.20 units (W/L = 112-149-6 = .429 pct)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OVERALL THREAD = +32.08 units (W/L = 125-162-7 = .435 pct)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

this is the link to the End of the Regular Season:
https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/hockey-betting/3497730-hotcross-nhl-2018-19-thread-p8.html#post28542893


Wow! I was right about Carolina from the beginning of the Playoffs... they just took out the champs. Lost faith when they lost both the first two road games...saved their road win for when it counted! Well, I got some vindication by catching that Live bet tonight in game 7.

Said my goal was to double-up my Regular Season profit total, which now has already been accomplished. Remember at the high-point in the season I was up over +50 units. Now I will need to proceed only if/when I have clarity. It’s been such a wild Round 1 just unbelievable results, comebacks, and highly entertaining.

[hotcross]

PLAYOFFS ROUND 2

Thursday April 25

DALLAS +140 ML (game 1) // 1 unit to win 1.40

SERIES DALLAS +145 // 5 units to win 7.25

EXACT OUTCOME SERIES DALLAS 4-1 games +995 // 0.6 unit to win 5.97

EXACT OUTCOME SERIES DALLAS 4-3 games +595 // 0.4 unit to win 2.38


I'm taking a big position on Dallas to dominate this series. As I write this, debating how big of a write-up I feel like doing on this, because I've studied a bunch of reasons as to why I like this so much.

One thing I don't love is the prospect of losing game 1 tonight on the road in St. Louis, knowing that the series prices would be much different if that happens.

The exact series outcome odds, as shown here I've taken two options which have Dallas closing the series in St. Louis on the road.

OK so I don't feel like doing a huge write-up with all my reasoning in detail. Here are a few main points:

Dallas won 3 of the 4 regular season games. If you wonder if Jordan Binnington was the goalie for St. Louis in these, yes... he didn't play in the first meeting which St. Louis lost, then won the his first attempt at home, but then was the losing goalie for the last two games against Dallas (one road, one home).

Coaches - give the edge to Dallas, my opinion. Montgomery been with the team for the full-year as head coach, while Berube was inserted mid-season, and if I'm not mistaken he actually is still under an interim-basis with the Blues. If you wonder, yes it has been done 6 times in NHL history that a coach who came in mid-season lead his team to win the Stanley Cup.

Goalies - again Dallas has the edge. This opinion would stir much debate, so I'm not going to divulge my own research on this.

Players experience and quality / Speed / Defense - Dallas.

First Round Series - both teams won 4-2 games.

>Dallas goal differential was +8 in their series against Pekka Rinne (Nashville).
Dallas went 2-1 W/L both at home and away.

>St. Louis goal differential was 0 in their series against Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg).
St.Louis went 3-0 W/L away, but only 1-2 W/L at home with the one home win to closeout the series in game 6.


Add to this, I went big against St. Louis in Round 1, and was wrong. In hindsight I overvalued Winnipeg, who had the "home advantage" in the series. I think Dallas has much more of a playoff-style game which they have been playing pretty much that style all year.

[hotcross]

Game started, end 1p now.

Dallas came out dominating the action, but Blues scored on their very first shot, Bishop let in the soft goal.

Refs really swallowed the whistles for this game apparently, no penalties called so far. Each team committed at least one cross-check that went uncalled.

[hotcross]

Blues up 3-1 with about 13-minutes remaining in the game. Bishop with a bad game, although the 3rd goal was a beauty by Tarasenko.

Dallas not great at late comebacks, so I didn't bet Live. Would rather add units to the series odds after tonight.