Hotcross NHL 2018-19 Thread

[hotcross]

Edmonton scores 2 in the latter stage of the 2nd period to tie up game 3-3, after having given up 3 goals in the 1st period to Buffalo. I'm just making a note of this game flow. I think Edmonton was about +520 Live ML at the end of 1p with the score 3-1. Buffalo still leads the shot count 26-19 and it was more of a margin up until the past couple minutes.

Edit: Edmonton just scored to make it 4-3 with 4 seconds remaining in 2p

[Winning oasis]

I'm watching the game and didnt see the 7th goal until I read your post LOL. I took Over 8.5 Live +111 end of 1st or beginning of the second. I tailed on Edmonton and got nervous and then took the over live.

[hotcross]

good job, man

I've been studying, felt like my picks last week were OK... but bad results and the amount hurt. That can happen, the way I spread the units around, but I still struggle sometimes with not recognizing I'm chasing losses until it goes on a bit too long.

The reason I'm here is trying to keep improving. Got some potential I think.

[hotcross]

Split Monday's picks but won the larger one, so up +2.70 units to begin this week. That late game in Calgary played out nothing like I expected. Even still the last 2 goals scored were kinda soft and flukey, but it just seems nearly impossible to call an Under this year, so why did I try?

Tuesday March 5

COLUMBUS -0.5 -125 regulation win // 2.50 units to win 2

This truly is a "must win" game on the road tonight, against a depleted roster of New Jersey who seem that only have one bright spot currently with Cory Schneider finally returning to form in net. Columbus has dominated this opponent, winning all previous 3 games this year in regulation, and by far they are the better team with much more talent on the roster. I considered going bigger on this pick, but with my Total pick losing last night, and the one concern that Columbus wasn't in very good form the last 2 games, I think limiting the risk to 2.50 units is very conservative for this game.

[hotcross]

Bizarre games tonight, bunch of Overtime games and shootouts. I'll try a couple of units on the late game, starts in less than 20 minutes.

JEFF CARTER - LA KINGS - PLAYER PROP OVER 0.5 POINTS (goal or assist) +120 // 1 unit to win 1.20

OVERTIME +290 MTL@LAK // 1 unit to win 2.90

Why not?

[hotcross]

Wed. March 6

WASHINGTON -125 regulation only moneyline // 5 units to win 4
*push if game goes to Overtime


I've got 4 or 5 big reasons why this is a 5 unit pick for me. Game starts in about 10 minutes, in Philadelphia. Maybe I'll post the reasons in a new post as the game gets underway.

[hotcross]

well I never posted the reasons for the Washington pick, but it got out of hand early in the 2nd period, with the Capitals going up 5-0 score, now they are just coasting to the end of the game, but Philly is trying to come back, so it's now 5-3, we'll see how it finishes.


adding ::

OVERTIME +295 STL@ANA // 1 unit to win 2.95

At face value, St. Louis should blow the Ducks out of their own building in Anaheim. Ducks are on a back-to-back, but have miraculously won their past two games vs. Colorado, then at Arizona last night. Ducks games have been very low-scoring for the past two weeks. St. Louis hasn't played since March 2 in which they lost at home to Dallas on a back-to-back, having lost the previous night at Carolina. Scoring for the Blues has really dropped off since their franchise record 11-game win streak, that stretch ended on Feb.19 when they beat Toronto at home in Overtime. They played two more OT games after that, but they really have had trouble scoring, tallying only 1-or-2 goals in their past 6 games going back to Feb.21 So although I know these OT prop bets are suckers, and I haven't been doing well with them, this could be a night to catch one, as the Ducks are "due" for an Overtime game, the last time they did was all the way back on Jan.13

[hotcross]

Tuesday won 3 units, the Anaheim game should have went to Overtime but a wild finish.

So this week up +1.20 units, after last week lost about -18 units. Will have time to do a recap after games this Sunday.


Friday March 8

WASHINGTON -1.5 -120 puckline // 2.40 units to win 2

Haven't decided on the other 3 games on tonight's schedule, but this one qualifies as a no brainer. New Jersey has a bunch of callups playing against the defending champs. Although they took Columbus to a shootout and there was talk about how well they played, but how Columbus played was a joke. Tonight will be different with Washington not having time for any nonsense. The moneyline is around -340 currently, so the way to play this game is on the puckline and risk a conservative amount.

[hotcross]

Washington got it done, but didn't make it real easy. The 3-0 score was more because New Jersey just didn't have the offensive firepower to compete, although they gave great effort especially on defense. The refs called a ton of penalties against both sides. Side note: with the shutout, Braden Holtby ties the Capitals franchise record for goalie shutouts, it was his 35th.


adding ::

OVERTIME +285 MTL@ANA // 1 unit to win 2.85

Both of these teams have not played Overtime in many moons. I stated a couple nights ago that Anaheim hasn't gone to OT since Jan.13 and they really almost did against St.Louis. So I'm following-up with this chase play again. Also, Montreal last saw OT on Feb.9. Both teams also are on their 3rd game in 4 nights here in Anaheim, and its a back-to-back for Montreal, who need the points at all costs in their quest for a wildcard spot in the playoffs. Anaheim has been playing much better hockey recently, with a few callup players who are getting in the groove and helping to change the team dynamic. I actually think the Ducks will win this game as a thin underdog at home, but it's far from a lock, so I'd rather risk the single unit on a much better potential payout for Overtime.

[hotcross]

Saturday March 9

PARLAY 2-TEAMS @ +273
CAROLINA +140 ML
ARIZONA -180 ML
Risk 1 unit to win 2.73

[hotcross]

Week 22 results: Monday Feb.25 – Sunday March 3

--------Feb.25----------
- 8.00 NASHVILLE -0.5 -160 regulation win ---> score 3-2 home Shootout win vs EDM

--------Feb.26----------
+4.00 CALGARY -102 regulation only ML ---> score 3-1 road win at NYI
- 3.00 WINNIPEG -0.5 +110 regulation win ---> score 3-2 home loss vs MINN
- 3.00 ARIZONA -0.5 +123 regulation win ---> score 4-3 home Shootout win vs FLA
- 1.15 UNDER 6 -115 FLA@ARIZ

--------Feb.27----------
- 5.00 EDMONTON -0.5 +210 ML ---> score 6-2 road loss at TOR

--------Feb.28----------
- 3.00 VANCOUVER +164 regulation only ML ---> score 5-2 road loss at ARIZ
- 2.00 VANCOUVER -0.5 +228 regulation win
+2.50 BOSTON -0.5 +125 regulation win ---> score 4-1 home win vs TB

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 22 = -18.65 units (W/L = 2-7 = .222 pct)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OVERALL THREAD = +27.85 units (W/L = 89-114-4 = .438 pct)
**as of end Week 22
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////


Week 23 results: Monday March 4 – Sunday March 10

--------Mar.4----------
+5.10 EDMONTON +125 ML ---> score 4-3 road win at BUF
- 2.40 UNDER 7 -120 TOR@CGY ---> score 6-2 CGY home loss vs TOR

--------Mar.5----------
- 2.50 COLUMBUS -0.5 -125 regulation win ---> score 2-1 road Shootout win at NJ
- 1.00 JEFF CARTER (LAK) PLAYER PROP OVER 0.5 POINTS +120
- 1.00 OVERTIME +290 MTL@LAK ---> score 3-1 LAK home loss vs MTL

--------Mar.6----------
+4.00 WASHINGTON -125 regulation only ML ---> score 5-3 road win at PHI
- 1.00 OVERTIME +295 STL@ANA ---> score 5-4 ANA home loss in regulation vs STL

--------Mar.8----------
+2.00 WASHINGTON -1.5 -120 puckline ---> score 3-0 home win vs NJ
- 1.00 OVERTIME +285 MTL@ANA ---> score 8-2 MTL road loss at ANA

--------Mar.9----------
+2.73 PARLAY 2-teams:
>>>>>CAROLINA +140 ML ---> score 5-3 road win at NSH
>>>>>ARIZONA -180 ML ---> score 4-2 home win vs LAK

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 23 = +4.93 units (W/L = 4-6 = .400 pct)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OVERALL THREAD = +32.78 units (W/L = 93-120-4 = .436 pct)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


These Overtime bets have cost me…haven’t hit enough to justify them, much worse than last year.

As for the -18.65 unit loss in Week 22, it’s happened two other previous week along the way this season, similar amount lost in a single week...that needs to be avoided by being more disciplined, halting the action for a couple days, if that’s what I have to do when a bad turn begins to take shape. Notice then, I got more conservative and felt like this week missed a lot of easy wins, even though did get back to the plus-side.

[hotcross]

Monday March 11

COLUMBUS -105 regulation only moneyline // 4.20 units to win 4
*push if game goes to Overtime


PARLAY 2-TEAMS @ +115
>PHILADELPHIA -310 ML
>EDMONTON -160 ML
Risk 2 units to win 2.30

also,

EDMONTON -0.5 +105 regulation win // 2 units to win 2.10


Yeah, it's the most "square" parlay on the board with the two biggest favorites. Edmonton has played better in recent games, playing at home, and they still think they have a shot at making the playoffs....doubtful, but they must win if that's the case. As for Ottawa, it doesn't appear they will win another game this season. Philly isn't great but the past several weeks have been playing their best hockey of the season. So it seems only if Philly decides to pull a troll-job on the betting world, they'll be booking a win tonight.


Columbus in the early game - I think found some big confidence by finally beating Pittsburgh. They MUST keep the momentum going tonight against the Islanders, who seem to be struggling. Tomas Greiss is starting goalie for NY as the home team, who is having a good season but I think is their weaker goalie.

[hotcross]

adding ::

ARIZONA +102 regulation only moneyline // 4 units to win 4.08
*push if game goes to Overtime

Arizona is by far the better team than Chicago at this point, the question to be answered tonight is can they go win this road game tonight. Corey Crawford is starting in net for the home team, with Darcy Kuemper making his usual start for the Coyotes. Arizona has a back-to-back tomorrow in St.Louis, which is the tougher matchup for them, so I believe they have to go all-in to get the win tonight.

[hotcross]

terrible job Monday, while the parlay won, the other 3 picks lost (Edmonton won in Overtime). So started off the week down -7.90 units.

Wed. March 13

EDMONTON -0.5 -155 regulation win // 6.20 units to win 4

CONNOR McDAVID PLAYER PROP OVER 1.5 POINTS (goals+assists) -117 // 2 units to win 1.71


Why put my hand on the same stove that burned me last time? There are too many factors aligning tonight pointing to an Oilers win at home, before they go on the road. Just because it's against New Jersey on a back-to-back isn't the whole story, in fact they have been playing decent hockey with their AHL call-up players, although they've lost 7 games in a row.

I have leans on the other two games on tonight's short card, but this home favorite is the strongest pick. I'm deciding still if I'll play smaller action on the late game Rangers at Canucks.

[hotcross]

adding ::

NY RANGERS +112 regulation only moneyline // 2 units to win 2.24
*push if game goes to Overtime

Rangers have won 7 of the last 10 games against Vancouver, and the Rangers also 4-1 W/L in these meetings as the road team. Neither team has been playing well, and Vancouver still has numerous injuries.

[hotcross]

Off the rails now, down another -8 units yesterday

Thurs. March 14

PITTSBURGH -0.5 -105 regulation win // 2.10 units to win 2

[hotcross]

Got the 2 unit win yesterday

Friday March 15

OVERTIME +315 CAR@CBJ // 1 unit to win 3.15

UNDER 5.5 -107 CAR@CBJ // 2.14 units to win 2

OVERTIME +305 VGS@DAL // 1 unit to win 3.05

Still working on the later games....

[hotcross]

Even money yesterday with the Under winning.

Saturday March 16

MINNESOTA -0.5 -125 regulation win // 3 units to win 2.40

Minnesota has dominated NY Rangers in previous meetings. Both teams have lost 3 in a row. Rangers 4th game of the road trip. Minnesota must win game for any hopes of making the playoffs. I'm playing the regulation time win, instead of moneyline -205 or puckline +120

[hotcross]

Minnesota won on Saturday. I'll have to do a 2 week summary after this week.

SAN JOSE -0.5 +100 regulation win // 3 units to win 3

[Hman]

GL tonight

[hotcross]

adding ::

LOS ANGELES +150 ML // 2 units to win 3

LOS ANGELES -1.5 +390 alternative puckline // 1 unit to win 3.90

[hotcross]

0-3 yesterday for -6 units. So frustrated with this losing streak. Put together a good year, then just fell off a cliff.

Tuesday March 19

NY ISLANDERS -0.5 +150 regulation win // 2 units to win 3

[hotcross]

adding ::

COLORADO -0.5 +190 regulation win // 2 units to win 3.80

COLORADO -1.5 +305 alternative puckline // 2 units to win 6.10


Minnesota has played more games in the past week, although they are the home team tonight. It's a must win game for both team's playoff chances as a wildcard team, and Colorado is currently 3 points behind the Wild in the standings. Colorado's captain Gabriel Landeskog was injured a couple games ago, won't be available for 4-6 weeks, however in the previous meetings, he was not a big contributor other than his time on ice. This is a who wants it more type of game. I see anywhere between 52-60% public consensus on the home team, but it seems that is the only reason, because both teams have been in fairly poor form. Minnesota however is only 15-15-7 this year at home, while Colorado is 15-15-6 on the road. I'll take the bigger +plus odds on MacKinnon in this spot where they should be the fresher team. Also wanted to mention Philipp Grubauer is the starting goalie for Colorado tonight and he has looked very good recently.

[hotcross]

Colorado came thru with a 3-1 score including the empty net goal.
NY Islanders got shutout, only had 13 shots in the game at home against Boston.

So 2-1 W/L for +7.90 units tonight.

I looked since the last Summary recap, picks from March 11 thru tonight have lost -10.09 units. That still puts me up +22 units on the season, but I'm not feeling proud right about now, there's definitely been a bit of a tilt factor going on. I could elaborate more, but don't feel like it right now, just being honest. Mostly, wagering on bad teams are the picks I regret.

[hotcross]

Wed. March 20

OVERTIME +300 WPG@ANA // 1.25 units to win 3.75

ANAHEIM +127 ML // 1 unit to win 1.27


Mainly a follow-thru play on Anaheim going to OT (both these teams are actually "due"), and fading Winnipeg. With this logic, it would seem the +1.5 puckline on Anaheim would be the pick, but I cannot justify laying the -215 juice on those dog pucklines...I'd rather just play the underdog moneyline.

[hotcross]

adding ::

ANAHEIM +245 ML LIVE (end 1p WPG leads 1-0) // 1 unit to win 2.45

[hotcross]

Anaheim got shutout yesterday for -3.25 units. Had a lot of scoring chances, although they made plenty of mistakes with taking penalties, and couldn't put anything past goalie Connor Hellebuyck.

Thursday March 21

CAROLINA -1.5 +172 puckline // 2 units to win 3.44

Tampa comes into Carolina on a back-to-back after a hard-fought battle beating Washington in Overtime last night. In previous situations like this during the current season, Tampa has either won the game outright, or lost by multiple goals. So I'm taking the playoff-bound Hurricanes to get the victory tonight at home. Tampa will start backup goalie Louis Domingue.

[DavidGoliath5003]

Anaheim got shutout yesterday for -3.25 units. Had a lot of scoring chances, although they made plenty of mistakes with taking penalties, and couldn't put anything past goalie Connor Hellebuyck.

Thursday March 21

CAROLINA -1.5 +172 puckline // 2 units to win 3.44

Tampa comes into Carolina on a back-to-back after a hard-fought battle beating Washington in Overtime last night. In previous situations like this during the current season, Tampa has either won the game outright, or lost by multiple goals. So I'm taking the playoff-bound Hurricanes to get the victory tonight at home. Tampa will start backup goalie Louis Domingue.

Your fading the best team in hockey... they are trying to set the Record for wins in a season... and the entire planet is on carolina, hilarious

[hotcross]

I respect you gave your opinion early on in the game, so let's see how it plays out. I gave my reasons for the play.

Where are you seeing everyone on Carolina in this game? Real question. The public consensus sites I look at had 67% range on Tampa on both the moneyline and the +1.5 dog puckline. Would like to know if there exists another source of this info....of course I know consensus data isn't necessarily accurate.

[hotcross]

just noticed live odds end 2p with Carolina leading 3-2 score, showing Tampa available at +309

think that is pretty standard odds end of 2p....seems pretty tasty if you like Tampa down by only one goal

[DavidGoliath5003]

I respect you gave your opinion early on in the game, so let's see how it plays out. I gave my reasons for the play.

Where are you seeing everyone on Carolina in this game? Real question. The public consensus sites I look at had 67% range on Tampa on both the moneyline and the +1.5 dog puckline. Would like to know if there exists another source of this info....of course I know consensus data isn't necessarily accurate.

.40 cent movement at pinnacle prior to match. I understood your logic, however TB owns Carolina

[hotcross]

thanks

Well as I said in original post today, Tampa either wins outright or loses by multiple goals. Guess I should have taken my own advice and hedged by grabbing that Live +309 end 2p. Carolina melted down in that 3p with all the penalties.

Also to think, pregame odds on the alternate puckline for Tampa -1.5 were higher than +300.... believe I also saw around +200 for Tampa regulation win.

[hotcross]

adding ::

LOS ANGELES +195 ML // 1 unit to win 1.95

Playing what could be another stupid pick here. Just have a hunch Quick and the Kings are gonna step up against the Sharks, who have lost their previous 3 games. I don't like how Martin Jones has been playing for the Sharks, and with him being a formed member of the Kings, I wonder if Quick will have some extra motivation tonight....I know he has played like trash also.

[hotcross]

split the two picks Thursday for -0.05 units, as the Kings defeated the Sharks by a 4-2 score

Friday March 22

OVERTIME +315 SJ@ANA // 1.27 units to win 4.00

I've been chasing Anaheim to go to Overtime. Sharks have lost 4-in-a-row, now tonight on a S.Cal back-to-back and their roster is not completely healthy. I would think the Sharks should win this game, they go back home after this and don't play until Monday, but I'll stick with the Overtime pick on this game.

[hotcross]

won +4.00 units yesterday when Anaheim beat the Sharks in Overtime

Saturday March 23

FLORIDA -0.5 +200 regulation win // 1 unit to win 2

NASHVILLE -0.5 +155 regulation win // 1 unit to win 1.55


still working on the later games....