Hotcross NHL 2018-19 Thread

[hotcross]

well I want to add Vancouver for a unit, to try for a profitable night, but they are too banged up with a couple fresh injuries and on a back-to-back. Florida won in a Shootout, but once again blew their lead late in regulation to cost me the swing from +1.80 units to -1.00 instead on that game. The Dallas and Columbus picks weren't even close.

My 2-unit pick on Colorado looks like it should win, so will go 1-4 W/L on the night, but just -0.60 units not too much damage.

[hotcross]

Saturday Feb.16

OVERTIME +290 OTT@WPG // 1.40 units to win 4.06

MONTREAL +218 regulation only moneyline // 1 unit to win 2.18
*push if game goes to Overtime


still working on the later games....

[hotcross]

adding ::

OVERTIME +280 DAL@CAR // 1 unit to win 2.80

COLUMBUS -123 ML // 2.46 units to win 2


still looking at the 3 West Coast late games....

[hotcross]

adding ::

SAN JOSE -0.5 -170 regulation win // 5.10 units to win 3


Not only is San Jose the obvious better team, they have a huge scheduling advantage tonight, having played 2 less games since the All-Star break than the Canucks. Also it's 3rd game in 4 nights of the Canucks road trip.

[hotcross]

lean on Nashville +115 road game in Vegas, but it probably will be a tight game. Malcolm Subban starting goalie for Vegas for the first time in awhile, and with his brother PK Subban on the Predators it could bring out the best in him. I see public consensus showing about 53% on Vegas for the game, I'm just looking at that like do people realize Vegas has lost 5-in-a-row at home?? They are struggling.

Ottawa @ Winnipeg went to Overtime, so it looks like I got a profitable night working an will stand pat for the night.

[Philmill]

Nice work hotcross

[hotcross]

Thanks Phil

I'm 7-7 W/L on the week, but up +12.86 units

That brings me up to a new season high overall of +43.54 units.

Might just pass on Sunday's 6-game card.

[spippen]

Nice work.

[hotcross]

Sunday Feb.17

FLORIDA -0.5 +120 regulation win // 3 units to win 3.60

FLORIDA -1.5 +190 puckline // 1 unit to win 1.90


still trying to decide if I want to play the late game Washington @ Anaheim. Those teams usually play pretty tight games when they meet.

[hotcross]

Week 20 results: Monday Feb.11 – Sunday Feb.17

--------Feb.12----------
- 1.40 OVERTIME +305 CAR@OTT ---> score 4-1 OTT home loss vs CAR
+1.05 UNDER 6 +105 CAR@OTT
+3.45 ST.LOUIS -1.5 +115 puckline ---> score 8-3 home win vs NJ
+3.30 COLUMBUS -0.5 +110 regulation win ---> score 3-0 home win vs WSH


--------Feb.14----------
- 1.00 FLORIDA -0.5 +180 regulation win ---> score 3-2 home Shootout win vs CGY
- 1.00 COLUMBUS -0.5 +125 regulation win ---> score 3-0 home loss vs NYI
- 1.00 OVERTIME +295 OTT@DET ---> score 3-2 road loss at DET
- 1.00 DALLAS -0.5 +255 regulation win ---> score 6-0 road loss at TB
+3.40 COLORADO +170 regulation only ML ---> score 4-1 road win at WPG


--------Feb.16----------
+4.06 OVERTIME +290 OTT@WPG ---> score 4-3 OTT road Overtime win at WPG
- 1.00 MONTREAL -0.5 +218 regulation win ---> score 3-0 road loss at TB
- 1.00 OVERTIME +280 DAL@CAR ---> score 3-0 DAL road loss at CAR
+2.00 COLUMBUS -123 ML ---> score 5-2 road win at CHI
+3.00 SAN JOSE -0.5 -170 regulation win ---> score 3-2 home win in regulation vs VANC


--------Feb.17----------
+3.60 FLORIDA -0.5 +120 regulation win ---> score 6-3 home win vs MTL
+1.90 FLORIDA -1.5 +190 puckline

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 20 = +18.36 units (W/L = 9-7 = .562 pct)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OVERALL THREAD = +49.04 units (W/L = 83-101-4 = .451 pct)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Great week….lost all the small wagers, won all the bigger ones.

[hotcross]

Tuesday Feb.19

DALLAS +100 first period moneyline // 2 units to win 2
*push if tied end 1p

DALLAS +102 regulation only moneyline // 1 unit to win 1.02
*push if game goes to Overtime


game starts in 10 minutes.

[hotcross]

lost those 3 units on Dallas Tuesday.... a lot of good scoring chances, but didn't finish on 'em

Thursday Feb.21

TAMPA BAY -0.5 -165 regulation win // 3.30 units to win 2


will have one or two more picks...

[Hman]

GL Hc

[pimike]

Solid thread!!

One of the good guys!

[hotcross]

thanks men


adding ::

NASHVILLE -220 ML // 4.40 units to win 2

DALLAS -0.5 +170 regulation win // 2 units to win 3.40


Nashville has an opportunity to claim first place in the Central division tonight at home with a win against the LA Kings. Viktor Arvidsson was questionable for this game, which would have worried me a bit, but he was on the ice for warm-ups.

Dallas faces the red-hot St.Louis Blues, but the Blues have not won many games in this building in the past. Dallas showed a lack of finish on several goal-scoring chances in their previous game Tuesday (and really all season), but for the most part I'm following through on this Dallas team tonight.

[hotcross]

got my Tampa and Nashville backwards.....
Tampa win 2-1 in a Shootout at home vs Buffalo
Nashville win 2-1 in regulation at home vs LA Kings

But Dallas home-cooked smoked the Blues 5-2 to end the 11-game win streak.

2-1 W/L on the night for +2.10 units. Makes the week -0.90 units thus far.

[hotcross]

Friday Feb.22

COLUMBUS -225 ML // 4.50 units to win 2

I decided not to get cute on this with the puckline or regulation win, and just pay up the juice for what should be a lock to win, road game in Ottawa on the day Columbus acquires Matt Duchene to be their 2nd line center.

[hotcross]

Columbus won easy last night, so my week 3-3 W/L for +1.10 units

Saturday Feb.23

ANAHEIM -0.5 +200 regulation win // 1.5 units to win 3

[hotcross]

Bad pick on Anaheim yesterday, they could only muster one goal. They appeared to score forcing Overtime at the end, but the goal was disallowed for goalie interference.

Having a middling-ass week. I'm playing today's early game this way...

Sunday Feb.24

UNDER 6 +108 NYR@WSH *sell 0.5 goals // 2 units to win 2.16

[hotcross]

Goal 26 seconds in by NYR.

Oh boy... Figured these teams would be sluggish.

[hotcross]

adding ::

UNDER 6.5 -107 DAL@CHI // 2.14 units to win 2

DETROIT TEAM TOTAL OVER 2.5 -137 // 2.74 units to win 2

[hotcross]

Week 21 results: Monday Feb.18 – Sunday Feb.24

--------Feb.19----------
- 2.00 DALLAS+100 first period moneyline ---> score 1-0 NSH lead end 1p
- 1.00 DALLAS+102 regulation only ML ---> final score 5-3 home loss vs NSH

--------Feb.21----------
- 3.30 TAMPA BAY -0.5 -165 regulation win ---> score 2-1 home Shootout win vs BUF
+2.00 NASHVILLE -220 ML ---> score 2-1 home win in regulation vs LAK
+3.40 DALLAS -0.5 +170 regulation win ---> score 5-2 home win vs STL

--------Feb.22----------
+2.00 COLUMBUS -225 ML ---> score 3-0 road win at OTT

--------Feb.23----------
- 1.50 ANAHEIM -0.5 +200 regulation win ---> score 2-1 road loss at EDM

--------Feb.24----------
- 2.00 UNDER 6 +108 NYR@WSH *sell 0.5 goals ---> score 6-5 NYR road Overtime loss at WSH
- 2.14 UNDER 6.5 -107 DAL@CHI ---> score 4-3 CHI home loss in regulation vs DAL
+2.00 DETROIT TEAM TOTAL OVER 2.5 -137 ---> score 5-3 home loss vs SJ

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 21 = -2.54 units (W/L = 4-6 = .400 pct)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OVERALL THREAD = +46.50 units (W/L = 87-107-4 = .448 pct)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Felt like missed some easy games this week. Maybe picked too conservative thinking I wanted to protect after winning last week. Also continue to struggle with Totals.

[hotcross]

Monday Feb.25

NASHVILLE -0.5 -160 regulation win // 8 units to win 5

Edmonton has been playing a little better for their standards, but second game without Connor McDavid. Nashville is only 5-4-1 in their past 10-games but they have won 9 out of the 10 previous contests against Edmonton. With a win, Nashville can claim first place in the Central division.

[hotcross]

not a good start to the week, as Nashville won via Shootout at home. In hindsight it was a really bad max unit pick by me. They went from dominating the 2nd period to go up by 2-1 score in the game, to then playing prevent in the 3rd, and then making a mistake taking a high-sticking penalty late in the game which allowed the Oilers to tie it and force Overtime. Actually the other big mistake was early after the game started on the power play, they gave up a shorthanded goal to Draisaitl. The problem with the pick was as I had stated the Oilers have been in better form, Nashville wasn't, and although the Predators needed and got the win, they had a makeshift lineup due to the trades made where they sent out a couple players and had not yet welcomed the incoming players.

Tuesday Feb.26

CALGARY -102 regulation only moneyline // 4.08 units to win 4
*push if game goes to Overtime


looks like a bit of a tricky card. I'm still working on the later games. Even the heavy favorites Carolina hosting LA Kings, and Washington at home vs Ottawa - don't seem clear-cut.... but yet it's hard to put money on those dogs.

[Hman]

GL tonight HC

[hotcross]

adding:

WINNIPEG -0.5 +110 regulation win // 3 units to win 3.30


Have to play this game. Winnipeg has only won once in their last 5 games, and have a tough schedule upcoming.

Also wanted to mention Minnesota has played two more games than Winnipeg overall since the All-Star break.

[hotcross]

adding ::

ARIZONA -0.5 +123 regulation win // 3 units to win 3.69

UNDER 6 -115 FLA@ARIZ // 1.15 units to win 1


Arizona has a big scheduling advantage for this game. Not only back-to-back road game for Florida, but the Panthers have played one more game overall since the All-Star break AND this is their 3rd game in 4 nights. These teams have a history of playing low-scoring games, and Darcy Kuemper has been very good in his previous stretch of games.

I will note that Florida has been playing good, also they have a good record this season in back-to-back games 7-5 W/L including 4-1 on the road, but those weren't 3 games in 4 nights scenarios.

[hotcross]

unreal Winnipeg blows the game allowing 2 goals in 26-seconds with less than 2 minutes remaining in regulation, to lose by the score 3-2. First was a power play, much like Nashville committed a late penalty on Monday night.

Minnesota has now won all 4 games this season against Winnipeg, with one more coming during the final week of the season they will meet in Minnesota. I thought this would provide extra motivation for Winnipeg tonight, but they are simply not in good form lately.

[hotcross]

1-3 W/L yesterday for -3.15 units, with Arizona blowing the lead in the 3rd period, scored to tie, then hit 3 posts during a late power play to go to Overtime in which they won in a shootout. Another tough break for my regulation win pick.

Wed. Feb.27

EDMONTON +210 ML // 5 units to win 10.20

I've been planning to make a big play on this game in Toronto for awhile. With the Oilers playing in better form lately, I'm actually surprised to see the odds this good. I don't want to give all my reasons, but I locked this in early today. Odds listed for Connor McDavid scoring at least one point (goal or assist) is -300 if you're into that sort of thing.

[Hman]

GL HotCros

[xxx]

Felt like missed some easy games this week. Maybe picked too conservative thinking I wanted to protect after winning last week. Also continue to struggle with Totals.

so true after a good run. changing strategy being conservative.

[hotcross]

thanks for the comment

Now this week I've opened up the throttle and get on the wrong side of 3x regulation wagers. Then last night's pick on Edmonton was contrarian for sure, but I really thought they were gonna go into Toronto and win that game. Didn't foresee them falling victim to the 2nd period barrage. It's messed with my head again for tonight because Edmonton should absolutely beat Ottawa, but I question if they can/will !!!

Down -16.15 units on this week. Maybe that's justice after the +18.36 unit week...well my selections need to be better.

Thursday Feb.28

VANCOUVER +164 regulation only ML // 3 units to win 4.92
*push if game goes to Overtime

VANCOUVER -0.5 +228 regulation win // 2 units to win 4.56
(this must win in regulation)


For some reason tonight, I focused heavily on the Vancouver Canucks. Really worked on this a double-checked everything to question myself if it's a good pick or not. And I think the odds are so good with it being a back-to-back road game for Vancouver, it becomes a must-play for me. Admittedly, I might not be "seeing" this game correctly, coupled with the fact that Arizona has won 7 of the previous 9 meetings against the Canucks, but here are my reasons.

Arizona - since Monday Feb.18 they won 4 of 5 games played, including 2 of 3 on the road, and the last 4 in a row. But 3 of the 5 games went to Overtime and Arizona won all 3 of those. They scored a total of 16 goals, including the 3x OT/Shootout games (so 13 regulation goals). Their opponents also scored a total of 13 goals. Arizona special teams have been pretty good in these 5 games, with 3 power play goals, 1 shorthanded, and limiting the opponents to just 1 power plays tally.

Vancouver - didn't play any games after Feb.16 until Thursday Feb.21. In fact, Feb.21 was a home OT loss to this same Arizona team. Including that game and up thru last night, they played 4 games going 1-1-2 meaning 2x OT losses. Scored a total of 8 goals, all in regulation (not too impressive). But opponents only scored a combined 10 goals (8 in regulation). Canucks scored only 1 power play goal in this stretch of 4 games, and gave up just 2 on the penalty kill.

Jacob Markstrom has played really good in the past 2 games, but tonight it appears that Thatcher Demko will make the start for the Canucks tonight returning off the Injured list. Demko has only played 2 career NHL games, but got wins in both of them...to be clear though, I'm not really basing this pick on Demko at all.

If you look at Darcy Kuemper starting again for Arizona, its his 5th start in a row, and he pretty much has to, because their only other option is Calvin Pickard. Arizona's current win streak is at 4...they achieved 4 win-streak at the end of November, and only matched/bettered that one other time this season with a 5 game win-streak at the end of October. I doubt the Coyotes will extend the streak. They have won all 3 meetings this year against Vancouver, who are the team I think will have the heightened motivation tonight.

Seeing Arizona as -160 to -165 range home favorite is the first time this season. They were favored a couple other times around -200 and did in fact win convincingly. But the -160 feels a little strange, considering Arizona's recent previous domination against the Canucks.

[hotcross]

adding ::

BOSTON -0.5 +125 regulation win // 2 units to win 2.50

[hotcross]

Terrible last week, losing about -20 units. Had to take a break after Thursday, even though I missed some easy ones this weekend, my head wasn't right. I'll post a recap summary, but wanted to post my pick on tonight's early game.

Monday March 4

EDMONTON +120 ML // 4.25 units to win 5.10

Buffalo goalie Ullmark has looked really bad in his starts since about Feb.15. Carter Hutton had a pre-game injury several days ago, so the Sabres are going with Ullmark, although neither Buffalo goalie has been great since early December. This is the 3rd game in 4 nights for Buffalo. Edmonton meantime is playing their 5th and last game of the current road trip, in which they've gone 2-1-1 against pretty tough competition, besides Ottawa. In the game Saturday, they went into Columbus and shut them out 4-0 score, a game in which Columbus really needed and were heavily favored.

Also wanted to mention, Edmonton beat Buffalo 7-2 score when they played in Edmonton on Jan.14

[hotcross]

adding ::

UNDER 7 -120 TOR@CGY // 2.40 units to win 2