Hotcross NHL 2018-19 Thread

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Tuesday Oct.23 - adding ::

EDMONTON +107 first period moneyline // 2 units to win 2.14
*push if tied end 1p

Penguins been traveling and team building trip thru Canada, have not played since Thursday Oct.18

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2-3 W/L last night for -2.30 units. The Pittsburgh at Edmonton game was an Overtime thriller, Crosby scoring the first and last goals of the game.

Wed. Oct.24

TORONTO +114 regulation only moneyline // 2 units to win 2.28
*push if game goes to Overtime

I might be adding a couple other wagers on this game, but locked this part of it, in case the line moves.

This is an early start time for Winnipeg, face-off expected at 7:18pm eastern time

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Wed. Oct.24 - adding ::

OVER 1.5 GOALS -140 first period TOR@WPG // 2 units to win 1.43

UNDER 6.5 -120 FLA@NYI // 3.60 units to win 3


still looking at numbers for the 2 later games....

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Wed. Oct.24 - adding ::
OVER 1.5 GOALS -140 first period TOR@WPG // 2 units to win 1.43

notes:
man, Laine hit the post right at the end of the period, had the goalie beat. Well hopefully Toronto continues to hold for the ML.

That first period played about how I expected. Fast pace yes. WPG won 63% of the faceoffs.

Toronto led the shots because they had the only power play. 18 shots vs 14 for Winnipeg

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no more plays on the remaining games. Vancouver at Vegas line is way out of bounds with Vegas -260. Do think they win, but the Canucks have played surprisingly well and the game could be tight.

Tampa Bay -125 at Colorado is interesting and I was taking Tampa, but the stats are very even between these teams.

Got a winning night going with the Islanders game looking to go Under, and Toronto ahead late. So I'll take that and hold.

[pimike]

Great job again. Blackbart and I pulled the trigger on Vancouver to make it a nice night.

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Thursday Oct.25

CHICAGO -0.5 -105 regulation win // 2.10 units to win 2

EDMONTON -0.5 +165 regulation win // 2 units to win 3.30

ARIZONA -0.5 -122 regulation win // 5 units to win 4.10

[pimike]

I parlayed all 3 ML’s

Let’s get em

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ok Mike, 2 of them in the books at this point.

You must have liked all 3 picks on your own as well. Parlay tailing me would be bold, seeing how I usually go .500 overall.

Let's go Coyotes!

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CORRECTION of WEEK 2 and 3 RECORDS

I caught a couple of errors with my previous record keeping. They are pretty minor, and completely unintentional.

I was using a template from last year and think got flustered during Week 2 where my picks were losing left and right. The Overall W/L totaled up wrong - for example - I listed one "push" but none of my picks this year did actually push yet! Also I made a couple errors re-copying games with the wrong team name.

So here is my re-posting of the correct records for Week 2 and 3.

Also I am now posting the current Week 4 record to bring everything correct and current.
There were no errors in Week 1.

None of our readers pointed this out, and I'm not gonna say sorry about it because I've caught it myself and now everything should be completely correct. There is quite a bit of effort involved to keep this thread current with the amount of detail that I do.... and I do the detailed way to help me improve and stay focused on the details of the games I'm trying to predict.

Noticed these errors because my balances at the books I use were showing figures different than what I had posted here in my thread.

Week 2 results:
--------Oct.8----------
- 1.18 ANAHEIM -0.5 -118 regulation ---> score 3-2 home Shootout win vs DET
--------Oct.9----------
- 1.02 UNDER 6.5 -102 TOR@CHI ---> score 7-6 CHI home Overtime loss vs TOR
**wrong game – this was already tallied on Oct.7 during Week 1
**replace with actual Oct.9 game picked:
- 1.12 UNDER 6 -102 VANC@CAR ---> score 5-3 VANC road loss at CAR

--------Oct.10----------
- 5.00 VEGAS -0.5 +202 regulation ---> score 5-2 road loss at WSH
--------Oct.11----------
- 4.00 EDMONTON +150 ML ---> score 4-1 road loss at BOS
- 2.00 MINNESOTA -0.5 +105 regulation ---> score 4-3 home Overtime win vs CHI
- 1.00 PARLAY 2-TEAMS:
EDMONTON +150 ML
VEGAS +160 ML ---> score 4-2 road loss at PITT
--------Oct.13----------
+4.00 EDMONTON -105 ML ---> score 2-1 road win at NYR
+1.56 UNDER 6 +104 VGS@PHI ---> score 1-0 VGS road win at PHI

- 1.56 MINNESOTA -0.5 +145 regulation ---> score 4-3 road Overtime loss at CHI
**wrong team name – **replace with actual Oct.13 game picked:
- 1.56 ST.LOUIS -0.5 +145 regulation ---> score 4-3 road Overtime loss at CHI

- 3.48 ARIZONA -0.5 +115 ---> score 3-0 home loss vs BUF
--------Oct.14----------
- 1.00 SAN JOSE -0.5 +135 regulation ---> score 3-2 road loss at NJ
- 1.00 CAROLINA -0.5 +230 regulation ---> score 3-1 road loss at WPG
- 1.00 ST.LOUIS -0.5 +100 regulation ---> score 3-2 home loss vs ANA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 2 = -16.78 units (W/L = 2-11 = .153 pct)
**units were wrong by only 0.10 units
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OVERALL THREAD = -15.58 units (W/L = 4-13 = .235 pct)
**units were wrong by 2.00 units, and Overall W/L was wrong as of End Week 2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Week 3 results:
--------Oct.15----------
+1.19 MONTREAL -167 regulation ML ---> score 7-3 home win vs DET
+1.40 UNDER 6 +112 DAL@OTT ---> score 4-1 OTT home win vs DAL
--------Oct.16----------
+2.82 VEGAS -195 ML ---> score 4-1 home win vs BUF
--------Oct.18----------
+1.00 TAMPA BAY -1.5 -108 puckline ---> score 3-1 home win vs DET
+3.70 ARIZONA -1.5 +370 alternative puckline ---> score 4-1 road win at CHI
--------Oct.19----------
+2.54 MINNESOTA +127 ML ---> score 3-1 road win at DAL
+1.50 MINNESOTA +120 regulation ML
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 3 = +14.15 units (W/L = 7-0)
**no error on Week 3 units or W/L
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OVERALL THREAD = -1.43 units (W/L = 11-13 = .458 pct)
**corrected as of End of Week 3
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Week 4 results:
--------Oct.23----------
- 3.15 CALGARY -105 ML ---> score 3-2 road loss at MTL
- 1.15 UNDER 5.5 -115 SJ@NSH ---> score 5-4 NSH home loss vs SJ
+2.00 UNDER 5.5 -110 CGY@MTL
+2.20 UNDER 6 +110 CGY@MTL
- 2.00 EDMONTON +107 first period ML ---> score 1-0 PITT lead end 1p (final Overtime 6-5 PITT)
--------Oct.24----------
+2.28 TORONTO +114 regulation ML ---> score 4-2 road win at WPG
- 2.00 OVER 1.5 -140 first period TOR@WPG ---> score 1-0 TOR lead end 1p
+3.00 UNDER 6.5 -120 FLA@NYI ---> score 3-2 FLA road Overtime win at NYI
--------Oct.25----------
+2.00 CHICAGO -0.5 -105 regulation win ---> score 4-1 home win vs NYR
+3.30 EDMONTON -0.5 +165 regulation win ---> score 4-1 home win vs WSH
+4.10 ARIZONA -0.5 -122 regulation win ---> score 4-1 home win vs VANC
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 4 = +10.58 units (W/L = 7-4 = .636 pct)
**this is the current week
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OVERALL THREAD = +9.15 units (W/L = 18-17 = .514 pct)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For Friday I won't make any picks of the 4 games. I might have plays for Saturday/Sunday.

[pimike]

Thursday Oct.25

CHICAGO -0.5 -105 regulation win // 2.10 units to win 2

EDMONTON -0.5 +165 regulation win // 2 units to win 3.30

ARIZONA -0.5 -122 regulation win // 5 units to win 4.10

Hell ya !!! South Point paying me 5,000

Thanks

Yes I liked as well!!!

[hotcross]

how many spanks can you buy with 5000 thanks

or something like that

Proud of you, brother. Proud of me, too. Taking Friday off to enjoy.

[pimike]

how many spanks can you buy with 5000 thanks

or something like that

Proud of you, brother. Proud of me, too. Taking Friday off to enjoy.

Good day to take off. I’m flying to San Diego tonight myself. Anyways keep up the good work.

[hotcross]

Saturday Oct.27

ST.LOUIS -134 ML // 4.02 units to win 3

Chicago beat the struggling Blues twice already this season (both games decided in Overtime). I'm still of the opinion St.Louis is better than their record indicates, and many of the numbers I look at support the thought. With today's home game against the rival Blackhawks, they must find a way to win. Sometimes I have used this type of logic before and it ends up not working out and looking foolish like wishful thinking... today will be different.

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Saturday Oct.27 - adding ::

ARIZONA +100 regulation only moneyline // 3 units to win 3
*push if game goes to Overtime

OVERTIME +295 TB@ARIZ // 1 unit to win 2.95

Last game of a 5-game road trip for Tampa Bay, which they only lost once on the trip, it was the first game in Minnesota and that was in Overtime. A key to this is Louis Domingue is the starting goalie for Tampa tonight, in the arena where he recently was with the Coyotes until last year. Anyway, Arizona almost always beats Tampa, usually as a huge underdog. Tonight they are about even money at home! I would be going larger on this pick, but the Power Rankings are so far in Tampa's favor. However, Arizona has only played Overtime once this season after 9 games, so although I shouldn't risk money on the sucker prop bet for OT, taking a one unit stab on it tonight.

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Week 4 results:
**this completes the current week, Monday Oct.22 – Sunday Oct.28

--------Oct.23----------
- 3.15 CALGARY -105 ML ---> score 3-2 road loss at MTL
- 1.15 UNDER 5.5 -115 SJ@NSH ---> score 5-4 NSH home loss vs SJ
+2.00 UNDER 5.5 -110 CGY@MTL
+2.20 UNDER 6 +110 CGY@MTL
- 2.00 EDMONTON +107 first period ML ---> score 1-0 PITT lead end 1p (final Overtime 6-5 PITT)

--------Oct.24----------
+2.28 TORONTO +114 regulation ML ---> score 4-2 road win at WPG
- 2.00 OVER 1.5 -140 first period TOR@WPG ---> score 1-0 TOR lead end 1p
+3.00 UNDER 6.5 -120 FLA@NYI ---> score 3-2 FLA road Overtime win at NYI

--------Oct.25----------
+2.00 CHICAGO -0.5 -105 regulation win ---> score 4-1 home win vs NYR
+3.30 EDMONTON -0.5 +165 regulation win ---> score 4-1 home win vs WSH
+4.10 ARIZONA -0.5 -122 regulation win ---> score 4-1 home win vs VANC


--------Oct.27----------
+3.00 ST.LOUIS -134 ML ---> score 7-3 home win vs CHI
+3.00 ARIZONA +100 regulation ML ---> score 7-1 home win vs TB
- 1.00 OVERTIME +295 TB@ARIZ

-------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 4 = +15.58 units (W/L = 9-5 = .642 pct)
**this completes the current week
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OVERALL THREAD = +14.15 units (W/L = 20-18 = .526 pct)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Tuesday Oct.30

UNDER 6 -105 CGY@BUF // 3.15 units to win 3

COLUMBUS -0.5 -138 regulation win // 4.14 units to win 3


might add a game or two for the 8pm eastern and later games....

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Tuesday Oct.30 - adding ::


PHILADELPHIA -105 regulation only moneyline // 4.20 units to win 4
*push if game goes to Overtime

that's all for tonight

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Saturday Nov.3 - early game

UNDER 6.5 -115 OTT@BUF // 1.15 units to win 1

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Saturday Nov.3 - adding ::

UNDER 6 -110 DAL@WSH // 3.30 units to win 3

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Saturday Nov.3 - adding :: late games ::

UNDER 6 -107 PHI@SJ // 4.28 units to win 4

CAROLINA -1.5 +310 alternate puckline // 1 unit to win 3.10

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terrible 0-4 last night

Sunday Nov.4

UNDER 6 -115 BUF@NYR // 3.45 units to win 3

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won last night, will tally week results soon

Monday Nov.5

NY ISLANDERS -120 ML // 6 units to win 5

This is a max 5 unit play for me. I see a little RLM on the odds, which I don't understand, as most of the metrics I look at scream Islanders win. Add to that, Montreal has not yet lost two consecutive games on the season, but tonight they are starting Antti Niemi in goal, on the road, against a hot Islanders team looking for an elusive sixth win in a row. Montreal also has more players on the injured list than the Islanders.

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lost last night, Islanders led 3-1 end 1p, but after that it just seemed they didn't have the energy to keep up with Montreal as they scored once in the 2nd and 3rd periods each, then forced a Shootout in which nobody scored until the bottom of the 5th round Canadiens put one in the net. Disappointing loss there.

Tuesday Nov.6

UNDER 6 +101 NJ@OTT // 3 units to win 3.03


will have a couple more picks, just checking some numbers and info still...

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Tuesday Nov.6 - adding ::

UNDER 5.5 -105 VANC@DET // 3.15 units to win 3


checking the later two California games stil...

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Tuesday Nov.6 - adding ::

LA KINGS -155 ML // 7.75 units to win 5


Another max 5-unit wager for me on consecutive nights. I very carefully considered this game and believe it's the correct play. The -155 juice is high, but not out of my range. Just to give a couple bullet point reasons why:

Kings have played 2 fewer games on the season than the Ducks. Most recently, both teams beat Columbus at home, but the Ducks faced the backup goalie for Columbus and barely won 3-2 score Overtime, while the Kings faced Bobrovsky in net and handily won 4-1 score.

Ducks have played Overtime in 3 of their last 4 games, going back to Oct.28, while the Kings have not played any Overtime.

Both teams are generally secretive with their lineups, but from what can be assumed the Ducks still have a ton of significant players on the injured list. Meantime, the Kings recently got Dustin Brown back and have won 2 of the 3 games he has played. I don't see the Kings allowing the Ducks call-up players to come into their building and win tonight.

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2-1 W/L on Tuesday, winning the big play on the Kings

Thursday Nov.8

BUFFALO +124 regulation only moneyline // 2 units to win 2.48
*push if game goes to Overtime (not the 3-way line)

BUFFALO -0.5 +170 regulation win // 2 units to win 3.40
*must win in regulation (this is the 3-way line)

BUFFALO -1.5 +290 alternative puckline // 1 unit to win 2.90


I don't see a lot of great potential picks on tonight's schedule. I see some leans but cannot make the cut other than this game. Risking a total of 5 units with Buffalo on the road in Montreal is probably never a lock, but I'm splitting up the risk by betting it with some alternate lines, thus getting better odds on the potential payout. My numbers show Buffalo with a slight edge. Couple that with Montreal having way more injuries. Also, Sabres last played on Nov.4, while Montreal has played 3-games since Nov.3 in which they went 1-2 W/L


still checking the later games....

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Thursday Nov.8 - adding ::

UNDER 5.5 +103 SJ@DAL // 2 units to win 2.06

Don't see how this game will go Over. Ben Bishop is not the starting goalie for the home team, it will be Anton Khudobin

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Saturday Nov.10 - early games ::

BUFFALO -0.5 -105 regulation win // 4.20 units to win 4

BUFFALO -1.5 +165 puckline // 1 unit to win 1.65

UNDER 6 -115 VANC@BUF // 1.15 units to win 1


OVERTIME +290 NSH@DAL // 1 unit to win 2.90

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Saturday Nov.10 - adding ::

BOSTON -1.5 +180 puckline // 1 unit to win 1.80

UNDER 6 +100 OTT@TB // 1.50 units to win 1.50

OTTAWA +1.5 -105 puckline // 2.10 units to win 2

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ended yesterday about even for the day. Will tally up past two weeks after today's games.

Sunday Nov.11

MINNESOTA +100 ML // 3 units to win 3

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adding ::

ARIZONA +1.5 -155 puckline // 4.65 units to win 3

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VEGAS +155 regulation only moneyline // 3 units to win 4.65
*push if game goes to Overtime

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SAN JOSE -0.5 -120 regulation win // 3 units to win 2.50


still examining the last game on the board, Edmonton game....

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Week 5 results: Monday Oct.29 – Sunday Nov.4

--------Oct.30----------
+3.00 UNDER 6 -105 CGY@BUF ---> score 2-1 CGY road Overtime win at BUF
- 4.14 COLUMBUS -0.5 -138 regulation win ---> score 5-3 home loss vs DET
+4.00 PHILADELPHIA -105 regulation ML ---> score 3-2 road win at ANA

--------Nov.3----------
- 1.15 UNDER 6.5 -115 OTT@BUF ---> score 9-2 OTT road loss at BUF
- 3.30 UNDER 6 -110 DAL@WSH ---> score 4-3 WSH home Overtime loss vs DAL
- 4.28 UNDER 6 -107 PHI@SJ ---> score 4-3 PHI road Overtime loss at SJ
- 1.00 CAROLINA -1.5 +310 alternate puckline ---> score 3-0 road loss at VGS

--------Nov.4----------
+3.00 UNDER 6 -115 BUF@NYR ---> score 3-1 NYR home win vs BUF

-------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 5 = -3.87 units (W/L = 3-5 = .375 pct)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OVERALL THREAD = +10.28 units (W/L = 23-23 = .500 pct)
**as of end Week 5
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////


Week 6 results: Monday Nov.5 – Sunday Nov.11

--------Nov.5----------
- 6.00 NY ISLANDERS -120 ML ---> score 4-3 home Shootout loss vs MTL

--------Nov.6----------
- 3.00 UNDER 6 +101 NJ@OTT ---> score 7-3 road loss at OTT
+3.00 UNDER 5.5 -105 VANC@DET ---> score 3-2 DET home Shootout win vs VANC
+5.00 LA KINGS -155 ML ---> score 4-1 home win vs ANA

--------Nov.8----------
+0 push BUFFALO +124 regulation ML
- 2.00 BUFFALO -0.5 +170 regulation win ---> score 6-5 road Overtime win at MTL
- 1.00 BUFFALO -1.5 +290 alternative puckline
- 2.00 UNDER 5.5 +1.03 SJ@DAL ---> score 4-3 SJ road loss at DAL

--------Nov.10----------
- 4.20 BUFFALO -0.5 -105 regulation win ---> score 4-3 home Shootout win vs VANC
- 1.00 BUFFALO -1.5 +165 puckline
- 1.15 UNDER 6 -115 VANC@BUF
+2.90 OVERTIME +290 NSH@DAL ---> score 5-4 NSH road Overtime win at DAL
+1.80 BOSTON -1.5 +180 puckline ---> score 5-1 home win vs TOR
- 1.50 UNDER 6 +100 OTT@TB
+2.00 OTTAWA +1.5 -105 puckline ---> score 6-4 road win at TB

--------Nov.11----------
+3.00 MINNESOTA +100 ML ---> score 3-2 road win at STL
+3.00 ARIZONA +1.5 -155 puckline ---> score 4-1 road win at WSH
- 3.00 VEGAS +155 regulation ML ---> score 4-1 road loss at BOS
+2.50 SAN JOSE -0.5 -120 regulation win ---> score 3-1 home win vs CGY

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 6 = -1.65 units (W/L = 8-10-1 = .444 pct)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OVERALL THREAD = +8.63 units (W/L = 31-33-1 = .484 pct)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Record & Profit has dipped down a little after the past two weeks.

There was a big swing on the 2 Buffalo games I picked this week to win in regulation.... they won in Overtime then a Shootout, resulting in -8.20 units lost total on just those two games...

Very frustrating to have the winning team picked, but still lose because I thought they would win by more convincing scores.

Strong finish Sunday with 3-1 W/L is encouraging.