Hotcross NHL 2018-19 Thread

[hotcross]

Up +6.50 units last week. I'm busy and will have to wait until end of this week to do an official tally.

Monday Jan.14

OVERTIME +295 STL@WSH // 1 unit to win 2.95

OVERTIME +295 MTL@BOS // 1 unit to win 2.95

OVERTIME +275 MINN@PHI // 1 unit to win 2.75


Honestly I don't have a strong feel for tonight's games. Playing these, if just one hits, it starts the week with a small profit. Maybe 2 or 3 would be real nice. I like MINN@PHI the most to see OT

[hotcross]

1 for 3 on the Overtime picks Monday, so up 0.95 units on the week

Wed. Jan.16

COLORADO -0.5 +145 first period win // 1 unit to win 1.45


still working on the later games......

[hotcross]

Wed. Jan.16 - adding ::

BUFFALO +1 +125 puckline *sell 0.5 goals // 1 unit to win 1.25

BUFFALO +230 regulation only moneyline // 1 unit to win 2.30
*push if game goes to Overtime

This is my thinking...last time these teams played, Calgary won 2-1 Overtime on the road. Currently, Calgary is on a 5-game win streak, getting an easy 7-1 win in their last game Sunday at home against Arizona - which goalie Mike Smith played for the Flames against his former team. But tonight David Rittich is back in net, and although he's been the better goalie on the overall season than Smith, Rittich gave up 3 goals in each of his previous 3 starts. Couple that with the Flames missing 3 defensemen for tonight's game. Meantime, Buffalo is starting Linus Ullmark in place of Carter Hutton tonight in net, Hutton has gotten shaky recently, but looking at Ullmark's prior starts they are all tight games he keeps them in. Also Buffalo is healthy with no notable injuries. After going 3-6-1 in their last 10 games including regulation losses in their last 3, it appears this should be a game they get up for against the team holding the best record currently in the Pacific. I like the big +plus odds on the Sabres tonight.

[hotcross]

Went 1-1-1 W/L/D on Wed for +0.25 units

Friday Jan.18

UNDER 5.5 -107 BUF@VANC // 3.21 units to win 3

Thatcher Demko making his NHL debut for the Canucks tonight. Meantime, Elias Pettersson is still sidelined with his knee injured. On the other side of the ice, Linus Ullmark will be in the Buffalo net, following up a splendid performance in the Sabres previous Overtime win at Calgary.

[hotcross]

adding ::

VANCOUVER -0.5 +158 regulation win // 5 units to win 7.90

[hotcross]

split last night, losing the Under pick, but winning the bigger Side as the home team won in regulation. +4.69 units yesterday, which brings the week to up +5.89 units.

Saturday Jan.19

BOSTON -250 ML // 5 units to win 2

Rather than playing the Boston puckline -1.5 @ +100, or the regulation time win @ a highly juiced -157, just taking the standard moneyline. This play will win and Tukka Rask will get his record.


Still working on the later games...

[hotcross]

Tukka got ran into in the first period and went out with a concussion. He was going for the Bruins franchise record for goalie wins, so that was my main reason for the pick. Not making excuses about the injury, obviously just an unforeseen factor.

Saturday Jan.19 - adding ::

EDMONTON +108 ML // 3 units to win 3.24

Calgary faces a scheduling disadvantage tonight, having played one more game on their overall schedule since Jan.1 compared to the Oilers. Also, the Flames come into town on a back-to-back, and they don't have a good record on the season in B2B. I believe this rivalry is heating up, giving both teams motivation. Leon Draisaitl could get his 100th career goal tonight - he tallied an assist in each of the previous 2 games this season against the Flames.

[hotcross]

Hit a slide Saturday losing both those for -8 units and killing a profitable week. I'll do a recap tally after we finish this week's games going into the All Star break.

Tuesday Jan.22

UNDER 6.5 -105 CAR@CGY // 2.10 units to win 2

[hotcross]

won the 2 units on the Under last night. Tonight is the last day on the schedule before the All-Star break.

Wed. Jan.23

MONTREAL -0.5 -125 regulation win // 1.25 units to win 1

It seems like I should have higher confidence in this pick, but something seems to hold me back. Montreal hasn't played since a 5-2 loss on home ice Saturday against the Flyers, in which they started Antti Niemi in net. Arizona has been playing really good, but tonight is a back-to-back and their 3rd game on the road trip, plus being the 4th game in 6 nights. Coyotes are starting Calvin Pickard for the first time as their goalie, and he's nothing special, but capable of a good game of course.


Will have a pick or two for the later games, checking into lineup confirmations...

[hotcross]

adding ::

OVERTIME +310 MINN@COL // 1 unit to win 3.10

if this game goes to Overtime, and then Colorado wins it, both teams will have exactly 54 points and be tied for 3rd place in the Central division. Dubnyk has been very good in his most recent games, while Colorado is starting Philipp Grubauer in net.

[hotcross]

adding ::

ST.LOUIS -0.5 +130 regulation win // 3 units to win 3.90

UNDER 6 -110 CAR@VANC // 2.20 units to win 2

[hotcross]

Week 15 results: Monday Jan.7 – Sunday Jan.13

--------Jan.7----------
- 1.00 MINNESOTA -1.5 +260 alternative puckline ---> score 1-0 road win at MTL

--------Jan.8----------
+2.00 OVER 6.5 -105 COL@WPG ---> score 7-4 WPG home win vs COL

--------Jan.9----------
- 1.00 COLORADO +160 ML ---> score 5-3 road loss at CGY

--------Jan.10---------
+2.00 COLUMBUS +100 ML ---> score 4-3 home Overtime win vs NSH
+3.00 ST.LOUIS -133 regulation only ML ---> score 4-1 home win vs MTL
- 1.00 OVERTIME +310 MTL@STL
- 1.00 OVERTIME +310 WPG@MINN ---> score 3-2 WPG road loss at MINN
- 2.00 FLORIDA +105 ML ---> score 4-3 road Shootout loss at EDM
+5.50 SAN JOSE +110 ML ---> score 3-2 road win at VGS

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 15 = +6.50 units (W/L = 4-5 = .444 pct)
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OVERALL THREAD = +37.52 units (W/L = 64-73-3 = .467 pct)
**as of end Week 15
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Week 16 results: Monday Jan.14 – Sunday Jan.20

--------Jan.14----------
- 1.00 OVERTIME +295 STL@WSH ---> score 4-1 WSH home loss vs STL
+2.95 OVERTIME +295 MTL@ BOS ---> score 3-2 MTL road Overtime win at BOS
- 1.00 OVERTIME +275 MINN@PHI ---> score 7-4 MINN road loss at PHI

--------Jan.16----------
- 1.00 COLORADO -0.5 +145 first period win ---> score 0-0 end 1p (final 5-2 road loss at OTT)
+1.25 BUFFALO +1 +125 puckline *sell 0.5 goals ---> score 4-3 road Overtime win at EDM
+0 push BUFFALO +230 regulation ML

--------Jan.18----------
+7.90 VANCOUVER -0.5 +158 regulation win ---> score 4-3 home win in regulation vs BUF
- 3.21 UNDER 5.5 -107 BUF@VANC

--------Jan.19----------
- 5.00 BOSTON -250 ML ---> score 3-2 home loss vs NYR (Tukka Rask concussion, got ran-into, was going for franchise record for goalie wins)
- 3.00 EDMONTON +108 ML ---> score 5-2 home loss vs CGY

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Week 16 =-2.11 units (W/L = 3-6-1 = .333 pct)
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OVERALL THREAD = +35.41 units (W/L = 67-79-4 = .458 pct)
**as of end Week 16
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Week 17 results: Monday Jan.21 – Sunday Jan.27

--------Jan.22----------
+2.00 UNDER 6.5 -105 CAR@CGY ---> score 3-2 CGY home Overtime win vs CAR

--------Jan.23----------
+1.00 MONTREAL -0.5 -125 regulation win ---> score 2-1 home win in regulation vs ARIZ
- 1.00 OVERTIME +310 MINN@COL ---> score 5-2 COL home loss vs MINN
+3.90 ST.LOUIS -0.5 +130 regulation win ---> score 5-1 road win at ANA
- 2.20 OVER 6 -110 CAR@VANC ---> score 5-2 VANC home loss vs CAR

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 17 =+3.70 units (W/L = 3-2 = .600 pct)
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OVERALL THREAD = +39.11 units (W/L = 70-81-4 = .463 pct)
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Thread is now up-to-date. Saturday, Jan.26 had the Metropolitan division winning the All-Star games with a 7-4 score beating the Atlantic, and then 10-5 over the Central to earn them the $1 Million purse.


Current week has short cards until Friday, so I've just been observing as the teams return to form.

[hotcross]

- 2.20 OVER 6 -110 CAR@VANC ---> score 5-2 VANC home loss vs CAR


"OVER" was a typo, I had the Under as the posted pick, and it was a loss.

Game was 0-0 after 1p, then the flood gates opened as each team scored 2 goals in the first 7 minutes of 2p. Second period saw all the scoring in that game. I thought Markstrom would be better for the Canucks in that game.

Speaking of the Canucks, they sit at 4th place in the Pacific division, and tied with Colorado at 52 points in the Western Conference. Will be interesting to see if Vancouver can make the playoffs in what was expected to be a rebuilding year. Of course, Elias Pettersson the 20-year-old is front-running for the Calder Trophy rookie of the year award.

Canucks have a 4-game road trip after the All-Star break beginning on Saturday.... in Colorado.

[hotcross]

Thursday Jan.31

BOSTON -0.5 -125 regulation win // 1.25 units to win 1

OVERTIME +335 NYR@NJ // 1 unit to win 3.35


Getting the hockey competitive juices flowing again tonight.

Also, goes without saying, but a reminder to shop around for the best odds available. Both of these lines are available at time of this post.

[hotcross]

totally backwards, Boston went to Overtime and lost after committing a penalty.

3 games on the schedule all tight scores, and late go-ahead and/or tie goals.

It's OK just 2x 1-unit bets to get back in the flow tonight.

Think I've won 2 of the Overtime bets all year.

[hotcross]

Friday Feb.1

DALLAS -132 regulation only moneyline // 6.60 units to win 5
*push if game goes to Overtime


There's only one game I really like tonight and it's the 8pm Eastern start.

Minnesota is the division rival who is currently 1 point ahead of Dallas in the standings.

Dallas is 16-8-2 at home, winning their previous game on Wednesday. Tomorrow they go to Nashville.

Minnesota is 13-12 on the road and it's their first game back from the All-Star break, they haven't played since Jan.23, which I see as a disadvantage. They go back home tomorrow to host Chicago.

Furthermore, the historical record favors Dallas:
Wild are 8-26 in the last 34 meetings in Dallas.
Home team is 43-21 in the last 64 meetings of these teams.

[Philmill]

Just played Dallas aswell...Wild could have all-star break hangovers....

GL

[hotcross]

you brought me luck Phil, glad we both got paid on this one.

Dallas closed it out with a 3rd period goal plus a late empty-netter.

Game was pretty tight, although the Stars totally dominated the shot count.

[hotcross]

up +2.75 units on the week after the Dallas win on Friday night

Sunday Feb.3

EDMONTON +150 ML // 1.40 units to win 2.10

CAROLINA +110 ML // 1.40 units to win 1.54

[hotcross]

Wed. Feb.6

PARLAY 2-teams @ +206
TORONTO -330 ML
NY RANGERS +135 ML

risk 1 unit to win 2.06

[Philmill]

I like your sides …

GL hotcross

[hotcross]

Won that parlay yesterday

Thursday Feb.7

NEW JERSEY -0.5 +190 regulation win // 1 unit to win 1.90

NEW JERSEY -1.5 +325 alternative puckline // 1 unit to win 3.25


Not sure if I'm seeing games clearly today. Still working on the card, but locked this one in.

[hotcross]

about even money overall the past 2 weeks. Will update records after Sunday's schedule.

Saturday Feb.9

WINNIPEG -0.5 +100 regulation win // 5 units to win 5

OVERTIME +335 WPG@OTT // 1 unit to win 3.35


Starting the day off with Winnipeg as the road team again inferior Ottawa. Senators 3rd game in 4 days. The Jets lost two in a row, and usually play furiously in these situations. I am (sheepishly) hedging this pick by putting 1 unit on the Overtime prop, because Ottawa is particularly due for an OT game. I'd rather play it this way, than risking -160 moneyline on Winnipeg...which would be 8 units risk to win 5. So instead in can win 4 units if Winnipeg wins in regulation, or lose 1.65 units if the game goes to Overtime. Or of course lose 6 units if Ottawa wins in regulation time.

Will find another pick on the later games....

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adding ::

ST. LOUIS -105 ML // 5.25 units to win 5

[hotcross]

St. Louis saved me on the early games. I didn't watch the Winnipeg game, but gotta believe it was a bad game for goalie Brossoit.... I'm not a believer in him, and avoided picking the Jets almost any game he's played, although he's performed surprisingly good... until today. Blasted 5-2 in Ottawa. Senators have done that to a handful of the contenders this year. Gotta say it must be a case where the better team is "looking past" Ottawa, thinking they have an easy win.

[hotcross]

adding ::

FLORIDA -1.5 +350 alternate puckline // 2 units to win 7

FLORIDA TEAM TOTAL OVER 2.5 -128 // 2 units to win 1.56

[hotcross]

adding ::

EDMONTON +125 ML // 4 units to win 5

[hotcross]

My picks are off the mark, lost about -5.50 units yesterday, with the bad pick on Edmonton, plus Florida winning in Overtime after blowing their lead in Washington.

Sunday Feb.10

BUFFALO -0.5 +180 regulation win // 1 unit to win 1.80

COLORADO -1.5 +425 alternative puckline // 1 unit to win 4.25

COLORADO -0.5 +255 regulation win // 1 unit to win 2.55


1 unit each looking for pretty good plus odds on these.

[hotcross]

Tuesday Feb.12

OVERTIME +305 CAR@OTT // 1.40 units to win 4.27

UNDER 6 +105 CAR@OTT // 1 unit to win 1.05

ST.LOUIS -1.5 +115 puckline // 3 units to win 3.45

[hotcross]

also ::

COLUMBUS -0.5 +110 regulation win // 3 units to win 3.30

[hotcross]

Week 18 results: Monday Jan.28 – Sunday Feb.3

--------Jan.31----------
- 1.25 BOSTON -0.5 -125 regulation win ---> score 3-2 home Overtime loss vs PHI
- 1.00 OVERTIME +335 NYR@NJ ---> score 4-3 NJ home loss vs NYR

--------Feb.1----------
+5.00 DALLAS -132 regulation only ML ---> score 3-1 home win vs MINN

--------Feb.3----------
- 1.40 EDMONTON +150 ML ---> score 4-3 road Overtime loss at MTL
- 1.40 CAROLINA +110 ML ---> score 4-3 home loss vs CGY

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Week 18 = -0.05 units (W/L = 1-4 = .200 pct)
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Week 19 results: Monday Feb.4 – Sunday Feb.10

--------Feb.6----------
+2.06 PARLAY 2-teams:
>>>>>TORONTO -330 ML ---> score 5-4 home win vs OTT
>>>>>NY RANGERS +135 ML ---> score 4-3 home Shootout win vs BOS


--------Feb.7----------
- 1.00 NEW JERSEY -0.5 +190 regulation win ---> score 2-1 home Shootout loss vs NYI
- 1.00 NEW JERSEY -1.5 +325 alternative puckline


--------Feb.9----------
- 5.00 WINNIPEG -0.5 +100 regulation win ---> score 5-2 road loss at OTT
- 1.00 OVERTIME +335 WPG@OTT
+5.00 ST.LOUIS -105 ML ---> score 3-2 home win vs NSH
- 2.00 FLORIDA -1.5 +350 alternative puckline ---> score 5-4 road Overtime win at WSH
+1.56 FLORIDA TEAM TOTAL OVER 2.5 -128
- 4.00 EDMONTON +125 ML ---> score 5-2 home loss vs SJ


--------Feb.10----------
- 1.00 BUFFALO -0.5 +180 regulation win ---> score 3-1 home loss vs WPG
- 1.00 COLORADO -1.5 +425 alternative puckline ---> score 2-1 road Overtime loss at BOS
- 1.00 COLORADO -0.5 +255 regulation win

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 19 = -8.38 units (W/L = 3-9 = .250 pct)
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OVERALL THREAD = +30.68 units (W/L = 74-94-4 = .440 pct)
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Bit of a rough patch, especially last week, splashed around too much.
Although a few of those losses were one-goal games. But still I need to be more precise when locking in a pick.


Today’s picks on Feb.12 went 3-1 for +6.40 units, with the Overtime pick being the only miss.
These will be counted on the next weekly summary.

[hotcross]

Thursday Feb.14

FLORIDA -0.5 +180 regulation win // 1 unit to win 1.80

COLUMBUS -0.5 +125 regulation win // 1 unit to win 1.25

OVERTIME +295 OTT@DET // 1 unit to win 2.95


working on the later games...

[hotcross]

adding ::
DALLAS -0.5 +255 regulation win // 1 unit to win 2.55

working on the later games...

[hotcross]

adding ::

COLORADO +170 regulation only moneyline // 2 units to win 3.40
*push if game goes to Overtime

[hotcross]

I like Montreal, but not enough to play it. Nashville lost 3 in a row, and the intrigue in this game is PK Subban and Shea Weber both playing against their former teams. Should be a good one.