possible NHL system

Panekkkk · 10-07-09, 01:18 PM

Originally posted by Blargh

Labouchere helps keep bet sizes down by spreading out the previous lost units over a few other bets. Martingale attempts to recover previous losses in the very next bet. Thus with Martingale a longer chase will cost you more units to continue, but at the end of the bet you will be +1 unit. With Labouchere you may end up in the negative after a successful 6 game chase but those losses will be spread out to next few chases. It may take a few chases before you get your +1 unit. The big difference is the bankroll needed. A much bigger bankroll is needed for Martingale as bets are doubling (or in this road chase, tripling) after each loss. Research the difference between Martingale and Labouchere to help with your chase options. All chasers should have a basic understanding of the Martingale and labouchere systems.

This is a good site that helps explain how to use Labouchere in a chase system with high odds.
http://platinumsportsinvesting.com/labourchere.aspx

This site also makes no sense. For this NHL system one would probably want to use "6/18/09 - Latest Labourchere Update" which is what I am referring to.

All these explanations make sense up to GM2. But none explain what happens when you get to a GM3 (at which points the lines no longer match up). When GM2 loses, do you split the line between GM2 and GM3, or do you split the line between GM1 and GM3?

Can someone with experience in this please show us how this is done assuming 25$ lines and -200 average lines?

Panekkkk · 10-07-09, 01:43 PM

Okay, I think I understand the Labouchere in reference to this chase system:

So, if you want to play this system using the MODIFIED LABOUCHERE TO WIN OPTION #1 as described in http://platinumsportsinvesting.com/labourchere.aspx do the following:

On a piece of paper write down the following:

GM1 50-50-50-50
GM2 50-50-50-50
GM3 50-50-50-50

For this example, we will assume that you are betting TO WIN 100 per game (half of 100 is 50, hence the 50's you see in the lines above). We will also assume the +1.5 line is -200 for all 3 games of the chase (which obviously wouldn't be the case; in real life, the lines would fluctuate).

For GM1 you bet TO WIN the sum of the two outside numbers in your GM1 line:

GM1 [50]-50-50-[50]
GM2 50-50-50-50
GM3 50-50-50-50

The two outside numbers are designated by square brackets [ ] (50+50=100) -- So, assuming -200 odds, You bet 200 to win 100

Let's say GM1 loses. Take what you just bet, and divide it in half (200/2 = 100). Add this value to GM1 and GM2 lines as follows:

GM1 50-50-50-50-100
GM2 [50]-50-50-50-[100]
GM3 50-50-50-50

You are now on to GM2. Again, take the sum of the two outside values (50+100=150) and bet TO WIN 150. Assuming -200 odds, you bet 300 to win 150. Now, if GM2 loses, divide what you bet in half (300/2=150) and add that value to the GM1 line and the GM3 line as below. *** This is the only step I'm not sure of. You have two options here. You could A) add the 1/2 value to GM2 OR b) you could add it to GM1 (in both cases you add the other 1/2 value to GM3). I guess either way has it's advantage. If you add it to GM1 then you make it up quicker (but you end up betting more on the 1st game of a new chase) than if you add it to GM2.***

GM1 50-50-50-50-100-150
GM2 50-50-50-100
GM3 [50]-50-50-50-[150]

Your are now on to GM3. You now bet TO WIN the sum of the outside numbers (50+150=200). Assuming -200 odds, you bet 400 to win 200. Since this is a GM3, let's say you win (finally). You then CROSS OFF the two outside numbers of GM3 (they were 50 and 150 in the previous line above):

GM1 [50]-50-50-50-100-[150]
GM2 50-50-50-100
GM3 50-50-50 (we crossed off the 50 and 150 from GM3's prior line)

You then start over again (note the boxes directly above are now around the outside numbers of GM1). GM1 bet is now TO WIN (50+150=200). So, assuming -200 odds, you bet 400 to win 200. If that WINS. You cross out the outside numbers again as follows:

GM1 [50]-50-50-[100] (we crossed off the 50 and 150 from GM1's prior line)
GM2 50-50-50-100
GM3 50-50-50

You then bet 300 to win 150 (50+100). Etc. If you lose, you take 1/2 of what you bet and split between GM1 and GM2 as before. This cycles constantly until you clear your lines (add 50's when nothing remains).

I think that's pretty clear. If you have any questions post. Again, there are a ton of modifications that you can make to this system, but the difference from a Martingale is that you don't go broke from a series loss and make it up over time.

NOW IF YOU HAVE MULTIPLE GAME CHASES ON THE GO (and there will be).
You can either run separate chase systems as proposed above, or you can mix them into one model. This latter approach is too complicated to explain and I haven't yet worked out the details myself. GL all.

Panekkkk · 10-07-09, 01:44 PM

If anyone wants to let me know if that's right that would be greatly appreciated. People who come up with this stuff have absolutely no skills to explain these things in plain English.

Blargh · 10-07-09, 04:47 PM

That's a problem I find with searching for betting systems. Explainations are given but it is very rare to see it in action, especially for sports betting.

I would say that they way you have it listed is the way I would do it.
In terms of multiple chases, I think the problem would having chases on the same game number on the same day. If you have three chases and they all start on different days you could use the same lines for each chase. If you have multiple chases on the same game on the same day you could use multiple sets of lines. Each time you start a new chase use the set of lines with the most losses on it.

threeg5 · 10-07-09, 07:12 PM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

Okay, I think I understand the Labouchere in reference to this chase system:

So, if you want to play this system using the MODIFIED LABOUCHERE TO WIN OPTION #1 as described in http://platinumsportsinvesting.com/labourchere.aspx do the following:

On a piece of paper write down the following:

GM1 50-50-50-50
GM2 50-50-50-50
GM3 50-50-50-50

For this example, we will assume that you are betting TO WIN 100 per game (half of 100 is 50, hence the 50's you see in the lines above). We will also assume the +1.5 line is -200 for all 3 games of the chase (which obviously wouldn't be the case; in real life, the lines would fluctuate).

For GM1 you bet TO WIN the sum of the two outside numbers in your GM1 line:

GM1 [50]-50-50-[50]
GM2 50-50-50-50
GM3 50-50-50-50

The two outside numbers are designated by square brackets [ ] (50+50=100) -- So, assuming -200 odds, You bet 200 to win 100

Let's say GM1 loses. Take what you just bet, and divide it in half (200/2 = 100). Add this value to GM1 and GM2 lines as follows:

GM1 50-50-50-50-100
GM2 [50]-50-50-50-[100]
GM3 50-50-50-50

You are now on to GM2. Again, take the sum of the two outside values (50+100=150) and bet TO WIN 150. Assuming -200 odds, you bet 300 to win 150. Now, if GM2 loses, divide what you bet in half (300/2=150) and add that value to the GM1 line and the GM3 line as below. *** This is the only step I'm not sure of. You have two options here. You could A) add the 1/2 value to GM2 OR b) you could add it to GM1 (in both cases you add the other 1/2 value to GM3). I guess either way has it's advantage. If you add it to GM1 then you make it up quicker (but you end up betting more on the 1st game of a new chase) than if you add it to GM2.***

GM1 50-50-50-50-100-150
GM2 50-50-50-100
GM3 [50]-50-50-50-[150]

Your are now on to GM3. You now bet TO WIN the sum of the outside numbers (50+150=200). Assuming -200 odds, you bet 400 to win 200. Since this is a GM3, let's say you win (finally). You then CROSS OFF the two outside numbers of GM3 (they were 50 and 150 in the previous line above):

GM1 [50]-50-50-50-100-[150]
GM2 50-50-50-100
GM3 50-50-50 (we crossed off the 50 and 150 from GM3's prior line)

You then start over again (note the boxes directly above are now around the outside numbers of GM1). GM1 bet is now TO WIN (50+150=200). So, assuming -200 odds, you bet 400 to win 200. If that WINS. You cross out the outside numbers again as follows:

GM1 [50]-50-50-[100] (we crossed off the 50 and 150 from GM1's prior line)
GM2 50-50-50-100
GM3 50-50-50

You then bet 300 to win 150 (50+100). Etc. If you lose, you take 1/2 of what you bet and split between GM1 and GM2 as before. This cycles constantly until you clear your lines (add 50's when nothing remains).

I think that's pretty clear. If you have any questions post. Again, there are a ton of modifications that you can make to this system, but the difference from a Martingale is that you don't go broke from a series loss and make it up over time.

NOW IF YOU HAVE MULTIPLE GAME CHASES ON THE GO (and there will be).
You can either run separate chase systems as proposed above, or you can mix them into one model. This latter approach is too complicated to explain and I haven't yet worked out the details myself. GL all.

Why not just smooth the losses over the 3 lines?

there are really so many ways to put this to use. the idea of PSI lebouchere version is to clear the lines as quickly as possible. He has the system set up so you are using the games to clear the lines instead of the lines to wager on the games.
spread out the loss and keep the money moving across the line.

3g5

dukipl · 10-08-09, 05:54 AM

Are all the NHL system plays for today played +1,5 ?

threeg5 · 10-08-09, 07:48 AM

Originally posted by dukipl

Are all the NHL system plays for today played +1,5 ?

I would play:
Pitt - PL
ATL - PL
Min - PL
NJ - ML the PL is the fav line so I would play the ML and keep it an even game

This is only if you are playing now and not waiting till the first series.
Dukipl it is like the MLB system Ml on the favs and PL on the dogs

Regul8er · 10-08-09, 07:53 AM

NO PLAYS TODAY......the first system play isn't officially until Oct 15th, don't get it twisted people.

Blargh · 10-08-09, 12:06 PM

Originally posted by threeg5

I would play:
Pitt - PL
ATL - PL
Min - PL
NJ - ML the PL is the fav line so I would play the ML and keep it an even game

Add Colorado to the Unofficial playlist. They start a 7 game roadtrip vs Nashville tonight.

dukipl · 10-08-09, 02:29 PM

I know its allunofficial, thanx for the answer threeg5

threeg5 · 10-08-09, 06:54 PM

Originally posted by dukipl

I know its allunofficial, thanx for the answer threeg5

mcbain · 10-08-09, 09:33 PM

For those that started from Day 1, system has been hot. Almost every series winning on A bet!

But let's not get overconfident.

Hope this continues when we really get going in November.

johncrud · 10-08-09, 09:38 PM

Wow, you kidding me.. I want at least couple of plays to go to B so I can start at B.

Anyways, when I said one loss will cost you 41+ units, I am not kidding about that. Check out the PL for NJ today. hahah

10+ straight wins will get someone pumped up but imagine if you lost on the 41th game. All your profit will be erased.

Please let the Minn game go to B..

Bluehorseshoe · 10-08-09, 09:46 PM

Originally posted by mcbain

For those that started from Day 1, system has been hot. Almost every series winning on A bet!

But let's not get overconfident.

Hope this continues when we really get going in November.

Are the filters worth bothering with then? Every teams first series have been a winner so far.

supra23 · 10-08-09, 10:00 PM

...this guys been truly on fire with this

...hope it continues, but i would suggest others do like i do...

since we all know that a series loss in this system will be immense..upwards of at least 35+ units...he often times has 2-4 plays going on the same day, for instance today was a good example when he had Pitt, NJD, Wild, Avalanche, and Atlanta...well since my bankroll isnt exactly the greatest in the world and i cant afford to take a risk betting all these teams in hopes of winning the series, i just chose the best team out of the bunch which gave me the best chance of actually winning the series...so for today i just bet more than what i normally bet on Pitt and NJD since their record last year proved worthy instead of the more medicore teams like wild, avalanche and atlanta...

dont get me wrong tho, avalanche and atlanta both covered as well thus far today but at least i didnt have to worry about going to C bets with them...also remember betting the puckline if its available is VERY important with this system but just do so selectively if you know what i mean, like today NJD were -300 puckline, which is crazy but i just took a shot with it moneyline at -110 and luckily won

coolbreeze02 · 10-08-09, 11:50 PM

so what do we have going for todays games?

threeg5 · 10-08-09, 11:52 PM

Originally posted by supra23

...this guys been truly on fire with this

...hope it continues, but i would suggest others do like i do...

like today NJD were -300 puckline, which is crazy but i just took a shot with it moneyline at -110 and luckily won

Hey that line was on Pinny (and maybe a few others) but it was a +1.5 line and on some others like BetJam there was a -1.5 line @+245 so if you felt that NJD was that strong you could play that line.

just got to pay attention to whats out there and some will get hit by this when you have a game where both ML start at -110

3g5

after thought: of course you would have lost that bet but it was still there and available none the less

palmer2712 · 10-09-09, 12:06 AM

Dam Minnesota. I parlayed all 5 bets tonight cause I did not like the payouts on spreads today. Minnesota Oct 10th in San Jose. I am new, but have all systems. Cant wait for hoops.

palmer2712 · 10-09-09, 12:31 AM

Anyone on here also do the NFL System? If no, let me know, I will get you the games.

prylac · 10-09-09, 03:33 AM

Originally posted by palmer2712

Dam Minnesota. I parlayed all 5 bets tonight cause I did not like the payouts on spreads today. Minnesota Oct 10th in San Jose. I am new, but have all systems. Cant wait for hoops.

haha oops! you can go a B bet on MINN if you want, so far this 'pre-system' run has only gone to B once, and won easy.

Next bets are 10/10

MINN @ SnJ (B)
LA @ StL (A)

GL to all, lets hope this run stays hot!

Panekkkk · 10-09-09, 07:14 AM

Originally posted by johncrud

Wow, you kidding me.. I want at least couple of plays to go to B so I can start at B.

Anyways, when I said one loss will cost you 41+ units, I am not kidding about that. Check out the PL for NJ today. hahah

10+ straight wins will get someone pumped up but imagine if you lost on the 41th game. All your profit will be erased.

Please let the Minn game go to B..

Switch to the Labouchere and one 3-game loss will cost you about 14 units, and you'll make it back slowly over the next few chases.

pelos879 · 10-09-09, 01:18 PM

How do you guys feel about Minnesota? Not much of a hockey guy, just know they are an expansion team from some years back.

coolbreeze02 · 10-09-09, 02:06 PM

palmer hook me up with the nfl system bro, i would appreciate it.
also are there any nhl plays tonight?

MacAttack13 · 10-09-09, 05:46 PM

I know we are talking about hockey but someone had mentioned about his NFL system working in college football. Has anyone sone any work on that? I mean I can not find the thread but someone said they were going to try it in college football. If they are please post the picks as I would love to follow them as I have with the NHL and the spreadsheet someone posted (which ended up getting emailed to me. I have played both home and away systems and have made some nice money even when they played against each other +1.5 goals has helped nicely.

palmer2712 · 10-09-09, 09:07 PM

No NHL plays today, Dont bet Minnesota tomorrow. San Jose is pretty freakin good. Only LA on A bet tomorrow. Does anyone have all the games they can copy and paste, from ver#2 and/or #1.

NFL games for Sunday:
KC Chiefs- B Bet, they did not cover last week. But Cleve, Miami, and Tampa did
Seattle- A Bet
Tennessee- A Bet
Carolina - A bet,

in NFL, bet the spread if the dog, and moneyline is favored. This week Carolina is only favored out of all of them, but I am betting the spread on them -3.5 as they will cover. I bet on football often and I like that bet. Plus payout on moneyline in this game is like a +1.5 on puck line in hockey. Basically in NFL, we are taking the teams, that has gone 0-3 ATS, and 0-3 straight up. Pick them up in a 3 game series. If underdog, then you bet the spread, buy .5 point if line is +2.5, +3, +6.5, or +7

palmer2712 · 10-09-09, 09:08 PM

Dont know if the NFL system works in College, but take Memphis Tigers +2 tomorrow and we will see. It will cover even if the system dont work like that

chilidog · 10-09-09, 10:16 PM

Why Memphis? They haven't lost 3 games in a row. If they lose tomorrow, then yah, you could play them. Just from a brief glance, looks like there's around 9 games tomorrow for college football, if you were applying the JM NFL system to it. I'm not going to play them, just tracking them for now to see if the NFL system works for college ball as well.

And I got this email a little earlier from JM:

Steve,

As a customer of my NHL system, I want to send you a reminder of our upcoming NHL betting series:

[A] Los Angeles Kings 10/10/09 Sat @St. Louis
[b] Los Angeles Kings 10/12/09 Mon @NY Islanders
[C] Los Angeles Kings 10/14/09 Wed @NY Rangers

This means that you would make the [A] wager for the team on the left on the date that the game is played. Remember to bet on the
+1.5 Puck Line if it is offered, and bet on the Money Line if
the Puck Line shows up as -1.5.

If your [A] bet happens to lose on the first day, then you would make a [b] bet for the same team again on their next game when they play, and a [C] bet on their last play if necessary.

Note that if you bet on the +1.5 Puck Line, then you will win your bet even if your team loses by 1!

One more thing to keep in mind is that sometimes you may not immediately see the game or the Puck Line available for betting on the betting site. If that's the case, just wait and check back later.

mikey360 · 10-10-09, 08:30 AM

I can't do it, I can't pull the trigger when the juice is -238.

Im just gonna watch this season and see how it goes.

palmer2712 · 10-10-09, 11:52 AM

Nice, I understand you are tracking them, Keep me informed if it works. I bet memphis, cause I bet on alot of college games, and IMO it will hit.

palmer2712 · 10-10-09, 11:54 AM

What are the 5 College games, that would fall into the system today?

chilidog · 10-10-09, 12:18 PM

Okay, if you strictly follow the JM NFL system, and apply it to college, there would be only one system play: Bowling Green. A team has to lose on both money line and spread for their last 3 games to be a 'system play'.

If you go with the teams that have just lost straight up for their last 3 games, I have: eastern michigan, purdue, miami oh, ball state, new mexico, bowling green, louisville, rice, fresno state, western ky, n texas, and suny-buffalo.

I'm going to track both ways and see how it goes. I just hope that there's not an all-new killer JM system next yr for ncaa fb, citing his 'never lost a game in 522.7 seasons!' winning record.

mcbain · 10-10-09, 01:12 PM

Well this thread has gone to garbage.

College football, NFL football and people advising NOT to make the proper B bet because SJ is too good?

Either you bet the whole series the system says indicates or you don't, you cannot pick and choose games within the series, people.

And take the football talk to the football area, there is lots of room there.

Refer to cheme82's thread if you want further explanation of how to bet my NHL system. He will also be posting his system bets once he starts up later this month.

coolbreeze02 · 10-10-09, 03:35 PM

so the LA Kings are the "A" bet for tonight at 8:00? offically or unofficially?

khaden · 10-10-09, 06:57 PM

hey lets keep the football stuff out of here--i bet college and pro football as well but this is a hockey thread.

chilidog · 10-10-09, 07:12 PM

kings are officially a play 2nite