go kings they won. 2.50 to get it. here is to our first official dollar.
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nice winComment -
minn shit the bed and didn't cover the b bet-(unofficial b bet)Comment -
Los Angeles
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Ver#2 of Morrison says, not to have that Minnesota bet from the start of the A bet. You shouldnt hvae bet the A bet eitherComment -
So whats up tap for tomorrow.Comment -
good first 10days I must admint, the 4 systems I am running for NHL netted over 20units so far.
Continued success to everyone... It's a very long season let's hope we keep it up.
egr99Comment -
Minn should be filtered out. 0-3 road record thus far. It would make this team one of the worst bottom 4 teams.Comment -
Its hard to filter teams out after only 3 road games and consider them one of the worst teams, isn't it?Comment -
Anyone Know where i can get the NHL schedule for last year and the year before? I have found some but, they seem to have a few games that are different. Is there games that get cancelled at times or maybe postponed or moved to another day after the final schedule is released?
Thanks for any help,
3g5
I am mainly looking for series home and away games do not care too much about the single games but, will do the work myself if I can find a usable schedule.Do what you did to get it and don't stop just go and get it!!Comment -
do we have any official plays for today?Comment -
coolbreeze....first OFFICIAL play is San Jose October 15th.Comment -
Hey I am new to betting hockey...would really appreciate it if someone could give me some insight on the system you guys are using to win...thanksComment -
read from the begining of the thread and download the attachment which I believe is on thread 32
Everything you need is in this thread but not just one post can sum it up for you. take a few minutes and understand what you are doing so when you come in here and see what we are doing you are able to keep up with the different things that will begin to happen as the season goes on.
Cheers and Good Luck!!
3g5Do what you did to get it and don't stop just go and get it!!Comment -
pbradjr99.....sorry my friend. First and last 3 game road trip for each team does not count as an official play. This system is McBain's, so I think we ought to at least follow his rules. If you want to play a modified version of the system, go elsewhere with it.Comment -
How do you guys feel about the Wild? They kind of suck and I dont know whether to take them this Wednesday.Comment -
Has anyone looked at chasing to win more than once on a road trip? For example I have won 3 times on the Avs on the +1.5 PL this road trip. My threory is how often a team goes 4 or more games losing by 2 or more goals. In 08-09 it happened 8 times. I did not record whether the games were road or home. I told myself I'd only start another chase if there is 5 or more games left on the road trip but looking at way the Avs are playing and thier remaining games on the road trip, I keep seeing myself wanting another unit from this road trip.
COLO
O8 at Nash W
O10 at Chi W
O12 at Bos W
O13 at Tor
O15 at Mont
O17 at Det
O21 at Minn
W/L based on PL for dogs and ML for Favs
I have won 2 units on the Kings trip. And they have 4 games left as well.
Am I on to something? Or I am getting too greedy/action happy?Comment -
Blargh: you would have got crushed last season if you bet DET in the second part of a road trip when they lost 3 games in a row as favorites. That is partly why we only bet games 1-3 of the trip.
As for continuing to bet a team after they have already won for you in a series, it may be working with the Avs right now (and Kings) but I don't consider it advisable. First of all it is a series bet to win 1 unit. After that 1 unit is gained, it is irrelevant what the team does after that. You can certainly continue to bet them if you think they are going to win/cover, but you are not system betting them, you are betting them based on handicapping, think they are hot team, etc. It is NOT the system!
Looking at my records from last season, there were at least 5 instances where a team won on the A bet Game 1 and then lost Games 2 and 3. Those would have got you in trouble if you kept betting as you suggest above.
Your team wins the A bet? Rejoice, collect, move on to next series.Comment -
One of the filters I would use would be having the team as an expected dog for the rest of the trip. If I use that filter then Detroit would be excluded the majority of the time. Which Road trip are you refering to? Is it the one the Wings played Jan 12th to 27th? Detroit played the 4th game of thier 6 game trip in SJ on Jan 17th and was +112 according to Covers.com. Meaning a likely -270 +1.5 PL bet which would have been a winner since SJ won 5-4 if it was chased. Playing only expected dogs would have filtered out the only loss from last year which was Montreal. Who last 4 games on the road by 2 or more goals after winning one game on the road. They were heavy favs in 3 of 4 games.
I would never play a road trip that was only 3 games. For a V2.0 chase to happen there would have to be atleast 4 games (or maybe 5) after the original road trip chase ended.
This system would be another system. Based on a theory that a team on the road will not lose 4 (or 5) games consecutive on the road by 2 or more goals.
I do think I am moving more away from the road factor and more towards the low probablilty of a team losing X number of games by 2 or more goals. But using road teams factor in good since they tend to be dogs and thus have much lower and more readily availble +1.5 PL odds.
In terms of handicapping vs the playing a system, Handicapping led me to reasearch more into another possible verison of a system. Next step if deciding on what, if any, filters need to be added. Once filters are added (or not) I have another possible system to play. Perhaps another year of backtesting may be required before adding this my chase system portfolio.Comment -
See what you are getting at here Blargh but chasing 4 games at the odds you normally get betting +1.5 is going to be mighty expensive.
People have already pointed out (in this thread) the possible high juice involved in a 3 game chase of a team that might be a relatively slight underdog in each game. Some have said you could lose 41 units in such a chase. Adding a 4th game where you have to recover all that and it has to be +1.5 and your odds might be just as bad would certainly not be for the faint of heart.
I'll stick to 3 game chases myself. C bet is enough, no D for me.
Let us know if you start that though and how you fare with it.Comment -
Noob here, but, this is a great thread from top to bottom (minus the NFL & NBA chatter). Thanks to mcbain, threeg5 and everyone else that contributed to it. I will also be following this NHL season.
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Im new to THE LABOURCHERE and wonder one thing.
If you need 2 wins after a loss to make a profit dont you have to win 2 of 3 in the long run? Does this really suit this system?
I might be missing something here, please set me straight.Comment -
Set you straight.............Start by reading the Whole thread and then come back and check in with in us !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Comment -
Anders,
You still have a profit on a Chase if you win in game B. Assuming it's either a new line or one without a loss on it, you be up .5 units in the chase after winning a chase in game B.
You'd be down in a single chase in any chase that goes to a Game C or later. What the Labouchere does for chases with high odds is it keeps the amount you are chasing lower.
To keep my example simple, I will only use one line
Let's use the current Minnesota chase
The labouchere line 5-5-5-5-5-5
For game 1 to win $10 at -288 bet $28.80; lose 28.80; new line 5-5-5-5-5-5-28.80
For Game 2 to win $33.80 at -170 bet $57.46; lose 57.46; new line 5-5-5-5-5-5-28.80-57.46
For game 3 to win $62.46 at -215 bet $134.29
If you win game 3, you have lost $23.80 on this chase. But you would betting to win $33.80 in your first game of the next chase instead of $10.
For Martingale
For game 1 to win $10 at -288 bet $28.80; lose 28.80;
For game 2 to win $38.80 at -170 bet $65.96; lose 65.96
For game 3 to win $104.76 at -215 bet $225.23
If win game three, you win $10 on the chase.
The total $ bet on all three games of the Labouchere is less than the amount bet on game 3 of the Martingale. The total bankroll needed to bet on chase game C is $220.55 for Lab and $319.99 for Martingale. Those numbers would also be the loss for a three game chase loss.
This quick example may not be the best since it shows a loss on the Labouchere for this 3 game chase but the theory behind the Labouchere is that future wins will recoup the losses and help clear the line.
Lab is a low risk - low reward strategy. Martingale is a high risk/ high reward strategy.
Personally I am using Martingale for the 3 game chases.
I have a few other chases that uses the +1.5 PL and does not have a cap on the chase games for which I use Labouchere.Comment -
First of all. Im active in another forum creating systems.
paw, i have read the whole thread and only wanted to clarify one thing, excuse me!
Blargh, thanks alot for youre reply!
2 lines 5-5-5-5 5-5-5-5 lines -200
I lose the first bet so, 5-5-5-20 if i move to my second line for bet 2 and win thats + .5u but in total after 2 games that -.5u, correct?
For game 3 i move back to line 1 and a win would earn me 1.25u, total after 3 games +.75u, right?
With Martingale i would be up 1u so thats the difference in award i guess, .25u.
If i instead spread the first loss over both lines, 5-5-5-5-10 x2. the result will be -1u,+.75u,+.75u total +.5u, right?
Ok, i think i got it now. Thanks again Blargh for youre kind reply.Comment -
Who is plannig to bet on the stinky Minn?Comment -
john.....no I'm going to stay away because its not a system play!Comment -
Steve,
Congrats on going an easy 1-0 to start of the NHL season!
As a customer of my NHL system, I want to send you a reminder of our upcoming NHL betting series:
[A] St. Louis Blues 10/15/09 Thu @Phoenix
[B] St. Louis Blues 10/17/09 Sat @Anaheim
[C] St. Louis Blues 10/20/09 Tue @Pittsburgh
and:
[A] San Jose Sharks 10/15/09 Thu @Washington
[B] San Jose Sharks 10/17/09 Sat @NY Islanders
[C] San Jose Sharks 10/19/09 Mon @NY Rangers
This means that you would make the [A] wager for the team on the left on the date that the game is played. Remember to bet on the
+1.5 Puck Line if it is offered, and bet on the Money Line if
the Puck Line shows up as -1.5.Comment -
Minnesotta come through with a last second goal and the season so far (pre offical) has gone undefeated!!!
G/L to all as we hope to continue the success tomorrow - offically!Comment -
DO WORK + KROW OD
do work! do work! do work! do work!
od krow! od krow! od krow! od krow!
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Wild chase over!
I guess you can say it was a very successful preseason for the road chase system.Comment -
Anders, read my post on the Labouchere if you are having trouble understanding how it works. There are various ways of using such a system. If you decide to split the losses between lines, for example, on your first chase, if you lose GM1, you won't make a profit after winning GM2, but then you will make up that extra profit when you win your next GM1 line since it will be larger. It becomes more difficult if you are betting multiple games in the same day.
Post #212 if that link doesn't workLast edited by Panekkkk; 10-15-09, 10:59 AM.Comment
