possible NHL system

**billdo75** · 10-27-09, 01:58 PM

Just thought I would pass along some results. I've been playing this system since the start of the season. Since the spreadsheet offered up both home and away trips, I decided to play both sides of it. The results include ALL plays, including unofficial plays and first series, through October 26th. I should also mention that I play it Martingale style...

Away 3+
A games: 15-8, -3.25 units, -6.1% ROI (3 ML, 20 PL)
B games: 3-4, -14.54 units, -35.6% ROI (4 ML, 3 PL) **PHX 10/28 pending
C games: 3-0, +31.99 units, +35.1% ROI (0 ML, 3 PL) **DET 10/27 pending
Overall Record: 21-12, +14.20 units, +7.6% ROI

Home 3+
A games: 16-8, +4.35 units, +10.8% ROI (21 ML, 3 PL)
B games: 6-2, +6.47 units, +20.6% ROI (7 ML, 1 PL)
C games: 2-0, +13.19 units, +56.1% ROI (2 ML, 0 PL)
Overall Record: 24-10, +24.01 units, +25.2% ROI

Playing both systems, there have been nine games so far that qualified on both sides. Those games have resulted in +16.70 units and a +26.7% ROI when wagered on both sides with four of them winning both wagers:

10/6 - Dallas -240 PL (A) @ Edmonton -135 ML (B) [ 4 - 5 ] +2.15 units
10/8 - Colorado -260 PL (A) @ Nashville -130 ML (A) [ 2 - 3 ] +2.00 units
10/14 - Minnesota -240 PL (C) @ Anaheim -150 ML (A) [ 2 - 3 ] +11.80 units
10/15 - St Louis -310 PL (A) @ Phoenix -115 ML (A) [ 2 - 3 ] +2.00 units

I'm liking the results so far. Both systems have turned a nice profit. +38 units in less than a month...

Good luck to you all!

**Carson05** · 10-27-09, 02:35 PM

Colorado Avalanche is an official play tonight correct?

**h00dini** · 10-27-09, 03:51 PM

no games lost a C bet'?

**h00dini** · 10-27-09, 03:52 PM

yes.

**scratbandit** · 10-27-09, 09:30 PM

det does suck bad. Definitely not the team of old. looks like its going to be the first c bet loss tonight.

**scratbandit** · 10-27-09, 09:33 PM

Looks like playing the home team is alot more profitable from the get go. Less juice across the board. thx billdo75 for the records.

**scratbandit** · 10-27-09, 11:15 PM

damn detriot might actually cover ....

**scratbandit** · 10-27-09, 11:35 PM

WOW I love the system.....................

**prylac** · 10-27-09, 11:37 PM

Amazing game tonight! No losses to speak of on the away system so far! Pheeeeew!

**punterfriend** · 10-27-09, 11:40 PM

Hey Scrat spoke up a little soon, Gotta have FAITH>

DOOUGH!

**mcbain** · 10-27-09, 11:42 PM

Man, you guys are jumpy!

**threeg5** · 10-28-09, 03:12 AM

Remember folks just because the fat lady is warming up doesnt mean she aint going to slip on her way to the stage

3g5

**scratbandit** · 10-28-09, 08:16 AM

Your right man what a swing that was in the third period. Well come on phoenix your next

**friskyfrog** · 10-28-09, 08:44 AM

Please correct me if I'm wrong but are the ground rules (McBain) for the Home 3+ the same as the Away 3+?.... bet on home team on a 3 game home stand ML or PL based on fave/dog status?

I might give it a shot come Nov 1. I haven't verified this but I'm sure the juice is a lot better on the Home stands than the away ones.

Thanx in advance y'all and GL with all your plays!

**mcbain** · 10-28-09, 09:37 AM

Not sure the ground rules for any home team system Friskyfrog, I only came up with and researched a road teams system. Juice probably is better but I just don't know how it performs historically or what the exact rules would be.

**Blargh** · 10-28-09, 11:46 AM

Juice is better on homestands since you'd rarely play PL. But of course you have a better chance on winning on the PL than the ML.
I did research on 4+ game homestands the past two years. It was 166-2. The two losses were Canucks and Caps and both were last season. there were also three other occasion were the chase went to 5 games before winning. I didn't look at whether a team was a dog or not for the wins, so a couple of the 5 game chases may be cut to 1 or 2 gamers if the Pl was available. The Caps were favs for thier 4 game homestand loss and the Canucks were dogs once but lost by two during thier 5 game homestand loss.
The Caps loss was a 77 unit loss.
The Canucks loss a 190 unit loss if only playing by moneyline. I don't have what the Pl was in thier one dog game at home but if we estimated -210 (based on being a +140 dog) as the PL for that game, the 5 game loss would have been 345 units.
I am playing the 4 game homestands this year and hoping that it's have a record like 07-08 or that if there is a loss it will not be a high chalk team.
I never did any research on 3 game homestands.

Also, in the 5th game in which the Canucks lost on thier homestand they lost 6-5 in a shootout. People are freaking out over a game 3 win here, imagine the reaction if they lost game 5 in a shootout?

**mcbain** · 10-28-09, 12:27 PM

Interesting info Blargh, nice work.

Good point about the shootout loss -- imagine the expletive-filled messages you would have seen on this forum that night!

**h00dini** · 10-28-09, 04:12 PM

do anyone of you guys do this for a living?

**mcbain** · 10-28-09, 04:19 PM

what to do with the juice problem?

Regarding the complaints about low odds/high juice:

The system does not account for low prices/high juice (how could it?) I am sure since I invented it. It is unfortunate that the odds seem so much worse on the +1.5 line this year and I am considering what we could do about it. Money management will always work as long as the team covers once in the three games, the bad odds just mean that if there is a loss you could lose 20-40 units instead of even the 18 you would usually lose in the NBA.

We could:
1. wait until later in the season when the good and bad teams are more clearly defined meaning we can bet more moneylines and the underdogs are bigger underdogs and pay more like 1.6-1.8 even on the +1.5 lines
2. play only the teams that are likely to be favored on the road at least 2 of the 3 games (or 1 of 3?)
3. play moneylines only for every team, encounter possibly more losses, but much smaller losses because not so much is needed to bet when the prices are so much higher
4. bet +1 on Pinnacle and get a better price but then if our team loses by one we get a push but must quit the series because technically we should have already won it.
5. abandon the system.

Intelligent responses welcome...

**h00dini** · 10-28-09, 04:33 PM

Originally posted by mcbain

Regarding the complaints about low odds/high juice:

The system does not account for low prices/high juice (how could it?) I am sure since I invented it. It is unfortunate that the odds seem so much worse on the +1.5 line this year and I am considering what we could do about it. Money management will always work as long as the team covers once in the three games, the bad odds just mean that if there is a loss you could lose 20-40 units instead of even the 18 you would usually lose in the NBA.

We could:
1. wait until later in the season when the good and bad teams are more clearly defined meaning we can bet more moneylines and the underdogs are bigger underdogs and pay more like 1.6-1.8 even on the +1.5 lines
2. play only the teams that are likely to be favored on the road at least 2 of the 3 games (or 1 of 3?)
3. play moneylines only for every team, encounter possibly more losses, but much smaller losses because not so much is needed to bet when the prices are so much higher
4. bet +1 on Pinnacle and get a better price but then if our team loses by one we get a push but must quit the series because technically we should have already won it.
5. abandon the system.

Intelligent responses welcome...

stick with the system!!!!

**pelos879** · 10-28-09, 04:45 PM

I don't like how there are no unfiltered loses this year so far...

**owll52** · 10-28-09, 04:52 PM

I am going to wait until B bets and also use Labrouchre. I know I will be giving up A bet profits but I just want to see how this fits my comfort level. I know the system has been posted a lot but go to this website and read up if you are not familiar with it. By system I mean Labrouchre

**scratbandit** · 10-28-09, 08:58 PM

Stick to the system it is working great. I am a believer and thanks to the guys for helping me out as I am new this year.

**scratbandit** · 10-28-09, 09:01 PM

[COLOR=#000000 ! important]Regarding the complaints about low odds/high juice:

The system does not account for low prices/high juice (how could it?) I am sure since I invented it. It is unfortunate that the odds seem so much worse on the +1.5 line this year and I am considering what we could do about it. Money management will always work as long as the team covers once in the three games, the bad odds just mean that if there is a loss you could lose 20-40 units instead of even the 18 you would usually lose in the NBA.

We could:
1. wait until later in the season when the good and bad teams are more clearly defined meaning we can bet more moneylines and the underdogs are bigger underdogs and pay more like 1.6-1.8 even on the +1.5 lines
2. play only the teams that are likely to be favored on the road at least 2 of the 3 games (or 1 of 3?)
3. play moneylines only for every team, encounter possibly more losses, but much smaller losses because not so much is needed to bet when the prices are so much higher
4. bet +1 on Pinnacle and get a better price but then if our team loses by one we get a push but must quit the series because technically we should have already won it.
5. abandon the system.

Intelligent responses welcome...

Take the home team in the same manner as you did in away team. Most of the bets are home favorites equal a moneyline. Will cut down on juice and the favorite wins more often. I am new but it would cut down on the juice.

[/COLOR]

**SKiLLsSoLoN** · 10-29-09, 12:30 AM

Originally posted by billdo75

Home 3+
A games: 16-8, +4.35 units, +10.8% ROI (21 ML, 3 PL)
B games: 6-2, +6.47 units, +20.6% ROI (7 ML, 1 PL)
C games: 2-0, +13.19 units, +56.1% ROI (2 ML, 0 PL)
Overall Record: 24-10, +24.01 units, +25.2% ROI

New games coming up (if you playing the Home 3+):
St. Louis Blues

Oct 29 Phoenix Coyotes 8:00 PM
Oct 31 Florida Panthers 8:00 PM
Nov 5 Calgary Flames 8:00 PM

**Stealinhome** · 10-29-09, 08:59 PM

I am on St. Louis 2night looks like we are gonna go to a B bet vs the Panthers

**rkelly110** · 10-30-09, 11:36 AM

I've been using mcbain's system starting 10/20. Using 3 game away series with a good
away record. So far I'm 5-0. 3 A bets. 1 B bet and 1 C bet. Sure some of the +1.5 lines
are low but, a win is a win. Some of the 5 games faced good home team records and won.
+5 units. The next series starts Nov. 1st w/ San Jose against Carolina.

**scratbandit** · 10-30-09, 11:53 AM

Florida is not a play as its only a 2 game road series.

currently this is what is going on the Home +3 and away +3
oct 31
ottawa a bet
st louis b bet

nov 1
san jose a bet

nov 2
tampa bay a bet

**Stealinhome** · 10-30-09, 11:58 AM

Originally posted by scratbandit

Florida is not a play as its only a 2 game road series.

currently this is what is going on the Home +3 and away +3
oct 31
ottawa a bet
st louis b bet

nov 1
san jose a bet

nov 2
tampa bay a bet

Thanks for the update bro

**scratbandit** · 10-30-09, 12:25 PM

My two alternative plays for tonight.

[53] TOTAL o5½ 1.95
(PITTSBURGH vrs COLUMBUS)

[66] TOTAL u5½ 1.83
(COLORADO vrs SAN JOSE)

Tell me what you guys think..

**Stealinhome** · 10-30-09, 12:28 PM

Originally posted by scratbandit

My two alternative plays for tonight.

[53] TOTAL o5½ 1.95
(PITTSBURGH vrs COLUMBUS)

[66] TOTAL u5½ 1.83
(COLORADO vrs SAN JOSE)

Tell me what you guys think..

I like the first one alot

**palmer2712** · 10-31-09, 04:09 AM

Originally posted by scratbandit

My two alternative plays for tonight.

[53] TOTAL o5½ 1.95
(PITTSBURGH vrs COLUMBUS)

[66] TOTAL u5½ 1.83
(COLORADO vrs SAN JOSE)

Tell me what you guys think..

scar, where you come up with those O/*u, hit nice.

**scratbandit** · 10-31-09, 06:31 PM

Tonight I like the over in the det vs. calgary. TOTAL o6 1.75

scrat

**scratbandit** · 10-31-09, 06:40 PM

ottawa lost tonight. get them next time. playing both sides of the home and away +3. Have st louis tonight for b bet.

scrat.

**Stealinhome** · 10-31-09, 09:50 PM

First series I bet on the home chase is going to a C bet LOL