ZdenoK's European Hockey and NHL thread

[ZdenoK]

6-1 with +5.62 units on the day. Updated stats:

Euro Hockey: 10-8-1 +1.61 units
NHL: 27-22-5 +8.58 units
Live (NHL): 1-2-1 +1 unit
Total: +11.19 units

[kevin101]

anything today in the Euro section?

[ZdenoK]

anything today in the Euro section?

Don't like the offer much today so no picks in Euro section.

[ZdenoK]

19.10.2013 - NHL
New Jersey Devils ML @ -117 MarathonBet 2 units



New Jersey is the only team without a victory yet but I expect this night to be huge for them. After a 5-games road trip this will be a second home match of the season for Devils. For the first time in Prudential Center Cory Schneider will start in net and according to his pregame interview I think he will come out strong and angry. Devils were playing very good vs Senators, they were creating good scoring chances but they lost due to lack of efficiency or you can blame both goaltenders. Anderson made many outstanding "robbing" saves. With 40 out of 42 shots stopped he was named the first star of the game. On the other hand Brodeur let in 4 goals in facing 23 shots. According to coach DeBoer his team is feeling energized and if they will continue to play good offensively, the results will come as well. They should also be more confident with Schneider minding the net. Rangers are finally coming off a victory, they have totally outplayed and shut down Capitals but they just have no luck. After scoring a goal in 2-0 victory their captain Callahan is injured again and out for 3-4 weeks. Rick Nash is still out and Del Zotto most likely won't play tomorrow yet. While they were a much better opponent in game vs Washington I think this is not really an indicator of their true current shape. Rangers are sort of Cryptonite for Capitals and Capitals are not in a much better position than Rangers as they are struggling themselves so this huge victory in my opinion doesn't mean New York has reached an end to their crysis. They still have problems when it comes bringing pucks into the net. While both teams could definitely use another pair of points I expect Devils to come out fired up and take their first victory of the season in front of home crowd.

[ZdenoK]

Devils are a winner

Euro Hockey: 10-8-1 +1.61 units
NHL: 28-22-5 +10.30 units
Live (NHL): 1-2-1 +1 unit
Total: +12.91 units


Here is a 100 % profit for today:

KHL in 30 minutes:
Salavat Ufa - SKA St. Petersburg totals over 5.5

Under @ 120 MarathonBet
Over @ -108 Pinnacle

Depending on your limits but it's a guaranteed small plus.

[ZdenoK]

20.10.2013 - EBEL (EHL)
EC Red Bull Salzburg @ +105 Pinnacle

If Salzburg wins today, they will get to the 2nd place. After very poor first month in the season they have now won 7 matches in a row by outscoring their opponents with 25-5 and rose to the 3rd place right behind Linz. They are back to playing offensive hockey and their defense along both goalies have made a huge progress compared to September. 2 days ago they have beaten Vienna which I rank better than Salzburg. Linz is a poor road team - they lost last 3 road matches vs some of the weakest teams in the league. On top of that Linz will still play without Leahy and Iberer in the offense who are among top players. We might see a close match but I think home team should comfortably win by a goal or two.

[HockeyRocks]

20.10.2013 - EBEL (EHL)
EC Red Bull Salzburg @ +105 Pinnacle

If Salzburg wins today, they will get to the 2nd place. After very poor first month in the season they have now won 7 matches in a row by outscoring their opponents with 25-5 and rose to the 3rd place right behind Linz. They are back to playing offensive hockey and their defense along both goalies have made a huge progress compared to September. 2 days ago they have beaten Vienna which I rank better than Salzburg. Linz is a poor road team - they lost last 3 road matches vs some of the weakest teams in the league. On top of that Linz will still play without Leahy and Iberer in the offense who are among top players. We might see a close match but I think home team should comfortably win by a goal or two.

I see the line on this game at 5Dimes at EC Red Bull Salzburg playing EHC Black Wing Linz II at PK at -165....Forgive me! Is this the same game??

[ZdenoK]

I see the line on this game at 5Dimes at EC Red Bull Salzburg playing EHC Black Wing Linz II at PK at -165....Forgive me! Is this the same game??

Yes, it's the same game but my bet is Salzburg in regulation.

[ZdenoK]

Unlucky, Salzburg was a better team they just couldn't capitalize. No NHL plays tonight.

Euro Hockey: 10-9-1 +0.61 units
NHL: 28-22-5 +10.30 units
Live (NHL): 1-2-1 +1 unit
Total: +11.91 units

[ZdenoK]

I said I won't play anything tonight but Jack Campbell will start for Dallas:

Mark Stepneski @StarsInsideEdge

Looks like Jack Campbell gets the start in goal tonight for the Stars. It will be his NHL debut.

Anaheim is 5/7 and Dallas is 6/7 playing 1st period over 1.5 so far. Anaheim has also won 1st period in 5/7 matches, they are 4/4 at home while Dallas has lost 1st period in 3/4 matches on the road. Dallas has played some tough matches in the last 5 days. They lost in Colorado where they seemed a better opponent, they played a tough match vs San Jose at home 2 nights ago where they won after a SO and yesterday they got crushed in Los Angeles. After the initial loss Anaheim is 7-0 and tonight they have a chance to conclude the home series with a perfect score as next they will play 8 road games. To sum it up: Dallas is B2B, Campbell in net, last home game for Anaheim in a while + all the trends with both teams so far. Odds are good.

Dallas Stars/Anaheim Ducks totals over 1.5 in 1st period @ +104 Pinnacle
Anaheim Ducks in 1st period @ +150 Pinnacle

Added:
Dallas Stars/Anaheim Ducks totals over 5.5 @ +115 Pinnacle 0.5 unit
Anaheim Ducks team totals over 3.5 @ +140 Pinnacle 0.5 unit

[ZdenoK]

All NHL bets already decided after 2 periods. Another day concluded with profit: +0.32 unit but better than nothing! Updated stats:

Euro Hockey: 10-9-1 +0.61 units
NHL: 31-23-5 +11.62 units
Live (NHL): 1-2-1 +1 unit
Total: +13.23 units

[Ser Pucks]

Good stuff in here Zdeno. Where do you get your 1st period stats from?

[ZdenoK]

Good stuff in here Zdeno. Where do you get your 1st period stats from?

Thanks! I've gathered the stats by looking into past matches here.

[kevin101]

Zdenok what do you think about Pitts first period over 1.5?

last 5 matches only 1 game stayed under the first 1.5 and the final score was 2-2 after regulation(3-2 ot/s.o)

and by the way great site. Gives you a lot of information. Will be using that site for all of my picks. Thanks!!!

[Ser Pucks]

Thanks! I've gathered the stats by looking into past matches here.

Thanks bud. Pretty cool site, have to pin it up with the others. GL tonight!

[ZdenoK]

Zdenok what do you think about Pitts first period over 1.5?

last 5 matches only 1 game stayed under the first 1.5 and the final score was 2-2 after regulation(3-2 ot/s.o)

and by the way great site. Gives you a lot of information. Will be using that site for all of my picks. Thanks!!!

Pittsburgh is usually having a very strong start in home matches, they are good in scoring goals in 1st period. I think they have also won most of the opening periods at home so far. Colorado is not that great when it comes to scoring more than 1 goal in 1st 20 min but they are going with Giguere tonight so over is quite possible. Otherwise I would say under with Varlamov in net. I'm not really confident in any of the plays tonight so I'll take a night off. My initial play was LA, even have a write up for it but in the end I decided to lay off, after all it is a marathon not a sprint. You're welcome for the website, good luck with your picks

Thanks bud. Pretty cool site, have to pin it up with the others. GL tonight!

You're welcome and thanks, good luck to you too!

[ZdenoK]

My initial play was LA, even have a write up for it but in the end I decided to lay off

My point of view if it helps anyone...



LA seems to have warmed up. They've played 9 games of regular season already and have won 5 out of last 6. I think they are playing much better in defense but in offense they still have some reserves left as none of the 4 centers has scored yet. On Saturday they have beaten Dallas with the highest score in the season so far. Kings have been a very solid home team over the past couple of seasons so backing them up at Staples Center seems like a good idea when they are facing Calgary who had a really good start of the season but now they are slowly dropping as they have lost their last 2 matches. They are struggling with defense on the road where they allowed 16 goals in 4 matches and tomorrow they are going to play B2B in Phoenix so backup Karri Ramo will start in net tonight. Their big story of the day is possible return of Cammalleri into the lineup. It is a game-time decision though so we'll have to wait and see. So we have the home team which is raising their form and away team which is slacking but the most important info for me today to select the home team is Kings' coach Darryl Sutter. Before he took over LA he was coaching and managing in Calgary for more than 3 years so he should be quite familiar with Flames. As a result Kings have won last 4 mutual meetings under Sutter's coaching and I think chances for another victory tonight are good. I just don't trust Kings to win in regulation. Calgary doesn't have problems scoring and Kings are scoring little more than 2 goals per game in average so I can easily see the game going into OT... I think Kings will eventually win the match so play Kings in ML or pass because the odds are low.

[ZdenoK]

23.10.2013 - NHL

Detroit Red Wings/Ottawa Senators totals under 5.5 @ -125 Pinnacle
Detroit Red Wings/Ottawa Senators 1st period under 1.5 @ -113 Pinnacle
Detroit Red Wings ML @ -143 Pinnacle

Ottawa and Detroit are both decent defensive teams with good goalies so I think we will see a duel of Howard and Anderson. If they will show at least 90 % of their good performance, I can expect a low scoring match. Howard is coming from a shutout vs San Jose where the match ended with 0-0, both goalies were amazing. Anderson last played vs New Jersey, Senators got outshot badly and Anderson stoped 40/42 shots to secure the victory. There are some good news for Red wings - Kronwall feels ready to play so that's another plus for Detroit's defense. While Ottawa is a decent road team so far I think Detroit won't drop another game at home. I'll grab this one early before the odds go down.

[ZdenoK]

23.10.2013 - NHL
Buffalo Sabres @ +280 MarathonBet 0.5 unit

Boston is a much much better team but Buffalo won't lose ALL of their matches. Chad Johnson will start in net for Bruins and tomorrow they are playing B2B so I think tonight if Miller will give his 100 % and Vanek gets a little support by other players, we have a nice value bet in home team.

[ZdenoK]

Another BS rule:

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/nhl-linesmen-stopping-fights-involve-voluntary-helmet-removal-164904711--nhl.html

[ZdenoK]

Awful night.

Euro Hockey: 10-9-1 +0.61 units
NHL: 31-27-5 +8.12 units
Live (NHL): 1-2-1 +1 unit
Total: +9.73 units

[ZdenoK]

25.10.2013 - EBEL (EHL)
Vienna Capitals -2.5 @ +100 MarathonBet

Vienna Capitals is one of the best teams in the league. They are usually very good at home and teams have hard times scoring vs them in Vienna. In their last match they have beaten Alba Volan with a shutout. Innsbruck is 2nd worst team of the league, they have lost all away matches in the season so far. In their last match they got completely crushed by the worst team in the league - Olimpija Ljubljana, with result 5-1. In 2 years since Innsbruck has rejoined the EBEL league they only managed to score 1 goal vs Capitals in 5 matches with totals of 25-1. First match in the season has ended with 5-0 for Capitals at their home ice and tomorrow I think we'll see a similar result. Innsbruck is playing B2B on Saturday, they are going on the road to Alba Volan. Always tough to play in Hungarian fortress and Alba Volan is one of the most important opponents to reach the playoffs for Innsbruck so I think they will dedicate more effort for that match and just accept the faith vs Vienna Capitals.

[ZdenoK]

24.10.2013 - NHL
Philadelphia Flyers ML @ -125 MarathonBet 2 units
Philadelphia Flyers @ +130 MarathonBet



Both teams are in huge need for points. Flyers will be playing after 7 days of rest and I think they are in similar spot as Devils were when facing Rangers at home. They only have 2 points after a disastrous start of the season and a break of 7 days was almost called for. They fired Laviolette and it's time for a new start. Flyers will have to play without Hartnell, he is still injured but they will probably get Lecavalier back and they still have players who should be able to score goals. If they are hoping to turn the season over, they have to start by winning vs Metropolitan Division rival tomorrow as New York might become their main concurent in the playoffs chase. Rangers had 5 days of rest and it seems like they could use it as well. Their road trip is ending soon but their troubles are far from being over. Tomorrow they will still have to play without first-liners Callahan and Nash. On top of that Lundqvist is also dealing with an injury so Cam Talbot will start in net. First NHL game in his career. He seems to have been a solid AHL starter but we have recently seen Zatkoff and Campbell who both allowed 6 goals in their NHL debut.

[Ser Pucks]

Nice write up. I had to double check that too when I saw Philly's last game was 1 week ago today....crazy!

GL tonight.

[ZdenoK]

24.10.2013 - NHL
Dallas Stars @ +112 MarathonBet
Dallas Stars/Calgary Flames totals over 5.5 @ -107 MarathonBet

It seems like Dallas is a totally different team with Lehtonen in net so tonight they have a nice chance to get 2 points at home ice vs Calgary who will play 4th match in 6 days on the road. Some value in Calgary but I think Flames are too tired to beat Dallas tonight who didn't play for 4 days. They both can score goals and don't excel in defense (they both have very bad GApG with ~3.5) so totals over is worth of trying as well.


Edmonton Oilers/Washington Capitals totals over 5.5 @ -112 Pinnacle

I think we will see a similar match as Winnipeg-Washington with lots of goals. Edmonton doesn't have good defense and their goalies are the worst in the league while Washington allows too many turnovers. Both teams allow in average more than 3 goals per game and can find back of the net themselves. It helps that Capitals have the most efficient powerplay in the league and Oilers are second worst in penalty killing. First mutual match of the season has ended with 4-2 in Washington and I can see such result tonight as well.

Nice write up. I had to double check that too when I saw Philly's last game was 1 week ago today....crazy!

GL tonight.

Thanks, mate. Best of luck to you too, lets get them tonight

[ZdenoK]

25.10.2013 - NHL
Colorado Avalanche @ -103 MarathonBet

Khudobin and Ward are out for Carolina so Justin Peters or Mike Murphy will have to start in net tomorrow. Good chance for Colorado to grab another 2 points at home. Carolina is playing pretty good hockey lately but Colorado is amazing with their goaltending supported by solid defense which causes great difficulties for opponents to score. In their last match they shut down Penguins who have one of the best offenses in the league. Carolina played a tough match in Minnesota tonight so they might be tired tomorrow and won't be able to bring enough power in the offense to score.

[ZdenoK]

4-1 tonight. Updated stats:

Euro Hockey: 10-9-1 +0.61 units
NHL: 35-28-5 +12.08 units
Live (NHL): 1-2-1 +1 unit
Total: +13.69 units

[ZdenoK]

25.10.2013 - NHL
Colorado Avalanche @ -103 MarathonBet

Khudobin and Ward are out for Carolina so Justin Peters or Mike Murphy will have to start in net tomorrow. Good chance for Colorado to grab another 2 points at home. Carolina is playing pretty good hockey lately but Colorado is amazing with their goaltending supported by solid defense which causes great difficulties for opponents to score. In their last match they shut down Penguins who have one of the best offenses in the league. Carolina played a tough match in Minnesota tonight so they might be tired tomorrow and won't be able to bring enough power in the offense to score.

Might be underestimating Hurricanes but I'll add Carolina Hurricanes team totals under 2.5 @ -125 Pinnacle

[kevin101]

Love the avs tonight. What you think about Toronto? No Lupul tonight though... bruised foot or something. Just heard it on the radio. Sends? Anderson playing very well with Ducks slumping and Ferderik Anderson will LIKELY start for the ducks too.

[ZdenoK]

Hard to say... Columbus has won vs Vancouver (and New Jersey), they had pretty decent goaltending and defense. Also other players started scoring along Gaborik. Toronto might play without Lupul but Clarkson is back which is a huge hype and story of tonight. I think they are more relying on offense here. These two teams seem to be not compatibale much so hard to say anything. Anaheim is still dealing with injury of Souray and Sbisa so their defense problems are not so small. Penner got out as well but I think they can survive that. After 7 victories they lost 2 road matches now, their form is dropping. Senators have surprisingly lost to Edmonton but after that totally demolished Detroit. Spezza is on fire and Anderson is very good in net. They have a healthy team which is rare nowadays. In first mutual match Anaheim has outshot Ottawa badly and Anderson was pulled off after a couple of min but tonight Senators are in good spot to tie the mutual series result. Though you never know with Ducks, they were up 2-0 vs Toronto already, then lost. Perreault is very efficient lately, if they get 1st and 2nd line working, they can score goals. And again we have Silfverberg vs Ryan emotional match. These 2 matches are the hardest to predict for me tonight so I'm staying away.

[ZdenoK]

Colorado gets the job done

Euro Hockey: 10-10-1 -0.39 units
NHL: 37-28-5 +13.87 units
Live (NHL): 1-2-1 +1 unit
Total: +14.48 units

[ZdenoK]

26.10.2013 - SM Liiga
Jokerit -1 @ +100 Pinnacle
Pelicans -1 @ +120 Pinnacle

[Up and Up]

picks have been solid. enjoy the write-ups. you like anything this afternoon ZdenoK?

[ZdenoK]

picks have been solid. enjoy the write-ups. you like anything this afternoon ZdenoK?

I was away for entire day so didn't have time to look into matches. I'd probably roll with Detroit, Boston, Tampa Bay and Dallas today. I've put smaller stakes on those teams a minute ago but as I said, didn't have time to cap them properly so I'm not posting anything tonight.

SM Liiga was 1-1 with +-0 unit today.

Cheers.

[ZdenoK]

27.10.2013 - NHL
Columbus Blue Jackets ML @ -107 Pinnacle

I don't know why people are backing up Anaheim so much today. Columbus has won last 3 home matches with convincing totals ratio of 12-4. They have beaten Vancouver, New Jersey and Toronto so after lost 4 road games they have now posted a record of 3 won home games. Hard to bet against a team who has the momentum. Blue Jackets' defense is getting better and better, Bobrovsky is slowly starting to remind of his fame in the last season. Players have started scoring so Gaborik's burden is easier. Anaheim has beaten Ottawa on the road but it was a close victory with a lucky game winning goal and before that they have dropped 2 matches with totals ratio of 8-3. On top of that Silfverberg got injured, accompanied by Perreault. Two of important players, they are 2nd-liners but they are (or were) hot and for a while they were responsible for leading the team unil Perry and Getzlaf have woken up. They remain 3rd and 4th scorers of Anaheim so I see the loss as a huge problem for them. They are still trying to cope with injury of Souray and Sbisa which is visible in defense. Ducks are rescuing the problem by outscoring their opponents, they are playing fast pace offensive hockey. But they have the worst powerplay in the league and are terrible at penalty killing as well while Blue Jackets have a decent powerplay and are below average in penalty killing. I think Columbus can shut the Ducks down tonight with their defense and eventually score enough goals to win. In previous season all 3 mutual matches were close, 2 of them were decided in OT, Columbus has won 2/3 - the only home one and last one on the road.