ZdenoK's European Hockey and NHL thread

ZdenoK · 11-05-13, 10:02 PM

San Jose Sharks in 1st period @ +105 Pinnacle 2 units

Here is a huge trend:

San Jose in 1st period: 8-3-3
Goals scored/allowed: 22-8

Buffalo in 1st period: 1-12-3
Goals scored/allowed: 2-20

Sabres scored in opening period only 2 goals so far! They are zero when it comes playing on the road, both goals in 1st period were scored at home ice.

Originally posted by tombuckers

Awesome video Z. Thought you were going to take Sabres after that but didn't!!!

I put half a unit on Sabres but I'm not very optimistic about it

Ser Pucks · 11-05-13, 10:58 PM

Originally posted by ZdenoK

San Jose Sharks in 1st period @ +105 Pinnacle 2 units

Here is a huge trend:

San Jose in 1st period: 8-3-3
Goals scored/allowed: 22-8

Buffalo in 1st period: 1-12-3
Goals scored/allowed: 2-20

Sabres scored in opening period only 2 goals so far! They are zero when it comes playing on the road, both goals in 1st period were scored at home ice.

Wish I saw this Zdeno....GL!

ZdenoK · 11-06-13, 12:50 AM

Shots on goal bet cashes in, that's 3-0 with main bets tonight

if anyone was tailing my Buffalo play, you can play it safe and cover your bet with Sharks ML @ +340.

ZdenoK · 11-06-13, 01:37 AM

Underdog play of the season Buffalo ML is a winner

Sharks should have won it, that was a regular goal in OT

but I sure won't complain. Will be interesting to see the epilogue of it. No doubt some angry posts will pop up around with bettors who were on Sharks

Updated stats:

Euro Hockey: 12-11-1 +0.69 units
NHL: 47-41-5 +11.62 units
Live (NHL): 2-4-2 +1.05 unit
Total: +13.36 units

ZdenoK · 11-07-13, 04:14 PM

7.11.2013 - NHL
Boston Bruins -1 @ -137 MarathonBet
St. Louis Blues -1 @ -125 MarathonBet
Tampa Bay Lightning -1 @ -108 MarathonBet
Washington Capitals @ +155 MarathonBet

kevin101 · 11-07-13, 05:12 PM

Zdenok check out this crazy trend Washington vs Minnesota:
past 12 games going back n fourth ex, caps, wild,caps,wild,caps wild etc. Only 1 break in the past 12 games where Minnesota won b2b. Last game Washington won so if the trend continues it should be Minnesota's win tonight? Also love the under in this game. 10/12 games stayed under 5.5, 1 game went 5 goals rest 2-4 range. Josh Harding playing exceptional well.

ZdenoK · 11-07-13, 05:43 PM

Originally posted by kevin101

Zdenok check out this crazy trend Washington vs Minnesota:
past 12 games going back n fourth ex, caps, wild,caps,wild,caps wild etc. Only 1 break in the past 12 games where Minnesota won b2b. Last game Washington won so if the trend continues it should be Minnesota's win tonight? Also love the under in this game. 10/12 games stayed under 5.5, 1 game went 5 goals rest 2-4 range. Josh Harding playing exceptional well.

As for trends, Minnesota didn't win in Washington for more than 10 years but I wouldn't pay much attention to it as these two didn't play very often in the past years. Entirely different teams today. It will be tough for Capitals to beat Wild, Minnesota is playing very good hockey lately, they have rock solid defense and good goaltending. Can't say the same for Capitals. If they have a good day, they will score a lot of goals and work well in the defense but on a bad day they will let in 5 goals, powerplay won't work and with Ovechkin it will be just controller disconnected. These two are currently top teams in powerplay but Minnesota is crap at penalty killing and Washington excels at it (91.5 % makes them #1). Should be quite a balanced match on paper but I have a feeling Ovie and co. will show Wild a warm East coast welcome tonight so I took them at +155. Not sure about the under, both teams played some high scoring matches lately. Line for 5.5 is too juiced up and seems too risky to me.

ZdenoK · 11-07-13, 05:48 PM

7.11.2013 - NHL
San Jose Sharks team totals over 2.5 @ -139 Pinnacle

ZdenoK · 11-07-13, 09:49 PM

Here comes the regulation pick to bite me in my ass.

ZdenoK · 11-08-13, 12:04 PM

8.11.2013 - NHL
Calgary Flames team totals under 2.5 @ -136 Pinnacle

Colorado's 1.79 goals allowed per game in average with Giguere's 0.75 GAA should be enough to stop Calgary who are playing B2B tonight. They were helpless vs St. Louis in first half of the match, then scored two in the final period after being 3-0 down. I think Colorado will want to forget the Nashville loss and play up to their reputation tonight.

ZdenoK · 11-08-13, 12:19 PM

Toronto Maple Leafs @ -113 Pinnacle

Devils played twice B2B this season already and lost both 2nd matches. Toronto is fresh, they didn't play since Saturday's loss vs Vancouver where they got shut down and couldn't score. I think this can be pretty frustrating for a team which was scoring about 4 goals per game lately so they had some free days to get their heads straight and will come out strong tonight. They have a good chance to rebuild their confidence by playing New Jersey who are B2B. Devils will go with Schneider so it might turn into low scoring match but I think Maple Leafs should be able to beat them despite the injuries they are dealing with. Match will be marked by the first duel of Clarkson vs his old team. After the 10 matches suspension he only contributed 1 pass in 5 matches so he is due. He should be highly motivated tonight to show his old team he is better off without them.

Lift2beFit · 11-08-13, 02:07 PM

This is my favorite play of the day BY FAR

BOL to you today

kevin101 · 11-08-13, 03:31 PM

Looks good man but is the Toronto game ML or in 60?

Absolutely love the UNDER 2.5 goals in the Calgary game. They are missing their 2 best goal scorers too.

I think AVS will come out firing and just destroy Calgary here. Might take -1.5 and over 5.5

ZdenoK · 11-09-13, 01:37 PM

9.11.2013 - NHL (early match)
Ottawa Senators @ -118 Pinnacle

ZdenoK · 11-09-13, 02:46 PM

Boston Bruins/Toronto Maple Leafs under 5 @ +115 Pinnacle

Game 7 of the playoff series between these two teams was something everyone was talking about. Toronto can still feel the bitter taste. They have won vs New Jersey yesterday but they got outshot and they could only score a single goal in regulation which makes it 1 scored goal in 2 matches. They have troubles with injuries - first two centers are injuried so they improvise by setting up a line-up of their top scoring players Kessel-Van Riemsdyk-Lupul. Not much efficiency by other players. Maple Leafs have played a long match vs Devils, perhaps they were saving strength for Boston but Toronto didn't get outshot only in 2 matches in the season so far, they are 3rd lowest team with S/G average (26.2) which makes me believe Rask will have a more calm evening tonight, especially Maple Leafs playing B2B. Boston lacks efficiency as well, they have finally caught a break from losing but they had more troubles beating Florida than the result would tell. 3rd and 4th scorers of the team are rookies Smith and Krug. Toronto will start Reimer who is currently 4-1-0 with a 94.2 save percentage and I can see this match having a playoff atmosphere. Two teams which lack offensive efficiency and two of the top goalies in the league, it smells like an under.

ZdenoK · 11-10-13, 11:27 AM

10.11.2013 - NHL
New York Rangers @ -134 Pinnacle

Rangers are slowly picking up, they have won 6 out of last 8 matches, last they have demolished Pittsburgh with 5-1 and won B2B vs Columbus on the road with 4-2. They are playing the best hockey so far, they are aggressive again, they are taking shots, they are creating scoring chances, they have worked up their defense and Lundqvist/Talbot duo seems solid. Nash is skating after the concussion injury so it looks like some bright days ahead for Rangers, although we might not see him in the lineup for a long time still. Brad Richards is finally receiving some support when it comes to scoring, Hagelin and Callahan are also back in sync with the team. Florida has lost 8 matches straight, they have replaced their coach prior to yesterday's match vs Ottawa but it seems like it doesn't help much. After 3 minutes Panthers were already down by 0-2. Tim Thomas doesn't seem to be fully recovered from the injuries yet and since he played yesterday I think tonight Markstrom will start. Either way, I wouldn't be too confident starting these two goalies at the moment. With every new game Florida will be more and more desperate for win but Rangers have finally gotten a taste of how it is when you are not a loser anymore so this seems like a good spot to back them up vs Florida who is B2B.

ZdenoK · 11-10-13, 09:45 PM

Another winner

stats:

Euro Hockey: 12-11-1 +0.69 units
NHL: 53-44-6 +13.78 units
Live (NHL): 2-4-2 +1.05 unit
Total: +15.52 units

ZdenoK · 11-12-13, 11:48 AM

12.11.2013 - NHL
Montreal Canadiens @ -114 Pinnacle

Tough spot for Lightning being B2B with injured Stamkos who provided (roughly) half of the goals/assists for the team lately. Also some other players seem injured on D - Salo and Aulie. They suffered their first loss in 5 matches which will endanger their first place on East. Seems like two teams with change of momentum. Montreal might get Briere back and they are slowly picking up after the cold streak. I think tonight they have good oppertunity to take advantage of the opponent's injuries and beat Tampa Bay who is without their main scorer. If they stop St. Louis as Lightning's main playmaker, they should win it. The only thing that worries me is Ben Bishop but I'll trust Montreal to get this one.

ZdenoK · 11-12-13, 04:04 PM

New York Islanders ML @ -118 Pinnacle

Neither of the teams is in good shape. Islanders have lost all 4 of the recent road games. After the Vanek trade a raise of form was expected but team is underperforming and on top of it Vanek got injured so he is out tonight. One of the huge problems is they are too undisciplined with terrible penalty-killing (72.9 %) and lack of efficiency in the offense. In the 4 matches on the road they were scoring in average 1.5 goal while allowing 4. At least Tavares, team captain, seems to be in a good spot, he has 7 points in last 6 matches so his form is something to build on. Nashville comes to Long Island for 6th straight road game after getting humiliated twice in a row, first 5-0 in Winnipeg and next 5-0 in New Jersey. Predators have scored 14 goals in 3 matches before this debacle so that was a huge drop. They are dealing with injury of starting goalie Rinne and huge pressure is on inexperienced goalie Hutton. Both teams are in a dark place at the moment but one of them will take 2 tonight. Islanders are finally back home and Marek Mazanec, a rookie goalie, will start for Nashville tonight. If Islanders still plan to make something out of this season, they will win tonight.

ZdenoK · 11-12-13, 04:55 PM

Another play which I like tonight:

Parlay: Washington Capitals ML & St. Louis Blues ML @ +169 Pinnacle 0.5 unit

Washington was playing like shit vs Colorado, they lost both recent matches away on the West side. They practically had the Phoenix match won already but choked in the final minutes with drawing stupid penalties. Tonight they return at home ice where they will try to grab 5th home victory in a row. Columbus comes from same division so we should expect a derby for points tonight. Columbus is not in a great shape, they have lost 5 matches in a row and then finally at home managed to beat Islanders who are/were even in a worse shape. With good 3rd period they have clinched the victory. Blue Jackets have problems with defense so they are relying on scoring more goals than allowing. First mutual match was won by Capitals (score was 4-1) who I think will tonight come out strong and angry after the bad game vs Colorado and get another 2 points at home. Can't trust these guys to win in regulation though.

Battle between two of the top West teams. St. Louis has played the fewest matches in the league so their ranking is perhaps not the most accurate. Tonight they are chasing 4th victory in a row. They are coming from a victory over Pittsburgh where they played very good and showed another excelent defensive effort. They have paid high cost though, Leopold got injured. Motor of the offense remains Steen who recorded at least a point in last 10 matches. Phoenix is having a good streak going on, they have won last 4/5 matches but all in shootout. In last match they were about to lose vs Washington but managed a big comeback in the final minutes and win after "the lottery". Smith is performing better with every game and Shane Doan is currently hot but I don't see winning so much games as the real face of Coyotes. St. Louis has won all 3 mutual matches in last season and I think they will continue to dominate the mutual series tonight. It will probably be a close match but I think Blues are a much better team at the moment.

ZdenoK · 11-14-13, 06:58 PM

14.11.2013 - NHL
Grand Salami Under 38.5 @ -107 Pinnacle

Ser Pucks · 11-14-13, 07:11 PM

Originally posted by ZdenoK

14.11.2013 - NHL
Grand Salami Under 38.5 @ -107 Pinnacle

I like it Zdeno. I was looking at this earlier, and the only reason I shied away was because I lost on it earlier in the season and was a bit gun shy. BOL.

ZdenoK · 11-14-13, 07:47 PM

Originally posted by Ser Pucks

I like it Zdeno. I was looking at this earlier, and the only reason I shied away was because I lost on it earlier in the season and was a bit gun shy. BOL.

Thanks

I was deciding between totals under on Tampa Bay/Anaheim and the grand salami, in the end I rather chose salami.

ZdenoK · 11-14-13, 09:22 PM

Now that's a bust...

ZdenoK · 11-15-13, 10:11 AM

16.11.2013 - SM Liiga
Karpat -1 @ -124 Pinnacle

Karpat is undefeated since September, they will try to win 15th match in a row tomorrow which would set a new league record. They are quite solid at home (8-1-1) while their opponent Assat is poor on the road (2-8). Assat played yesterday and at home lost against Kalpa which is last team in the league. I think Karpat has good chances tomorrow to win. They are motivated and playing in their home arena where there will be good atmosphere with everyone expecting a record. Karpat has goal ratio 43-16 at home, 17-0 on last 3 matches, though there was a break for national team.

ZdenoK · 11-15-13, 10:48 AM

15.11.2013 - NLA
Ambri-Piotta -1 @ -117 Pinnacle

Ambri lost the first place in the league because they lost last 2 matches but they played 2 tough road games against Kloten and Geneve who are pretty strong at home. Today they play at home again, vs one of the worst teams in the league. Biel is having hard times being an equal opponent to top Swiss teams. I think Ambri should win this match by 2-3 goals.

ZdenoK · 11-15-13, 04:14 PM

15.11.2013 - NHL
Parlay: Pittsburgh Penguins ML & Minnesota Wild ML @ +109 MarathonBet

Penguins are in the worst shape of the season but I silently expected it. They had a really good schedule in October so they were gathering points but now they had some tough matches in the last 3. Though the main problem is inefficiency, they only scored 3 goals in 3 matches. There are some troubles with injuries as Martin, the D-man with most TOI is injured but vs Flyers they only allowed 2 goals so they lost because they couldn't score. James Neal is back and I was expecting some fresh wind in the offense. Perhaps they need a little more time but Malkin and Crosby are missing. Similar story as last year's playoffs. Tonight they will face Nashville who is in even worse spot, they have lost last 3 matches and were totally demolished with goal ratio of 13-1. They didn't score a goal for 175 minutes. Without Rinne they are in huge troubles. Predators will conclude the 7 matches roadtrip tonight. Both teams have lost last 3 matches so they are looking to turn the momentum and I think this is a good chance for Pittsburgh to get something moving. Nashville is asleep and they should wait the return on home ice which Penguins should take advantage of tonight.

Minnesota is searching for revenge vs Florida tonight. On first mutual season match they lost in shootout in a close match which ended with 1-1 after regular time. Panthers have ended their 9-games losing streak by beating the leading team - Anaheim - after being 2-0 down already. But I don't think Florida is playing any better, it's Anaheim who started dropping their form. Ducks are struggling with injuries and many are saying the team was overperforming in the first place. Panthers have also made some changes in roster last night. They have traded Kris Versteeg to Chicago for Jimmy Hayes and Dylan Olsen. It should be a good trade which can freshen up the line-up for Panthers. Minnesota is one of the hottest West coast teams. They have a very good defense and Harding is perhaps the best goalie at the moment. Ironically he is Minnesota's backup. Backstrom got injured so Harding will start tonight but I think he is backup only on paper and for a while Harding is actually a starter. In last 10 matches they have gathered 17 points, last 3 went into shootout. It might be a low scoring duel tonight but I think Minnesota will win this one.

ZdenoK · 11-15-13, 04:40 PM

Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5 @ +137 Pinnacle 0.5 unit

Sabres/Maple Leafs Total Shots on Goal under 60 @ -118 Betsson

Buffalo finally won their first home match of the season. They were outshot badly by Kings but took advantage of Quick's injury to win in SO. Owner of the franchise decided to fire GM after 17 years and coach Rolston. Ted Nolan is the new coach and tonight Sabres will make his debut. Seems like the only bright spot at the moment are their goalie - Miller - and Moulson who proved to be worthy replacement for Vanek. Toronto has lost last 2 matches and with Bozak's and Bolland's injuries now Kadri made a dumb move and received a suspension for 3 matches so Maple Leafs are without first 3 centres. They are relying on pretty good goalie duo Bernier-Reimer. With 2 hot goalies in the net it smells like a good chance to hit under as Toronto has played 8 out of last 10 matches under but we are talking about Buffalo who played last 5/10 matches over so this seems like a coin toss. I was hoping for better odds on Buffalo but with given situation I'll just stay away from this match and I advice you to do the same. There is just one bet which I like. Betsson is offering total shots on goal in regular time. They have set the line at 60. Both teams are at the bottom with S/G stats, Buffalo averages 24.8 S/G and Toronto 26.5 S/G. If we are to see a close match, I think they will play below the 60 line.

kevin101 · 11-15-13, 05:13 PM

Bud, what you think of Toronto? They have been playing pretty well. Bernier has been a stud. I know they have lost in SO but those games were 1-1 and 2-2? after 60 I don't think this game will go past 60 mins. We are getting a pretty fair price on them. Buffalo is struggling and will continue to struggle. New coach and the puck isn't bouncing their way.

ZdenoK · 11-15-13, 05:26 PM

Originally posted by kevin101

Bud, what you think of Toronto? They have been playing pretty well. Bernier has been a stud. I know they have lost in SO but those games were 1-1 and 2-2? after 60 I don't think this game will go past 60 mins. We are getting a pretty fair price on them. Buffalo is struggling and will continue to struggle. New coach and the puck isn't bouncing their way.

Hey, I have wrote about the match in my last post (it's above your reply). I found a good SOG props but I'm staying away from chosing sides and totals, too unpredictable with whole Buffalo leadership change and Toronto playing without first 3 centres. I was thinking about half a unit play on Sabres but Toronto is not being favored so much so no bet for me.

ZdenoK · 11-15-13, 11:25 PM

3-0-1 on the day. I was right about Buffalo heh.

kevin101 · 11-16-13, 01:54 AM

Yea shit didn't see that one comming. Nice day sir well done.

ZdenoK · 11-17-13, 05:24 PM

17.11.2013 - NHL
Blackhawks/Sharks Over 62.5 Shots on Goal @ -118 Betsson

Not much philosophy for this pick... Chicago's 35.4 S/G average vs San Jose's 36.8 S/G average. Blackhawks are playing B2B so they might be tired and shoot less pucks on Niemi's net but if that will be the case, they should also allow more shots on their own net. Yesterday they had 41 shots vs Nashville but lost badly so they will want to come out strong on home ice tonight. San Jose is back on the winning streak, they had 38 shots in Edmonton where they have won 2 days ago. Given the trends for both teams I think we are in for a high scoring match which would also mean lots of shots on goal.

ZdenoK · 11-18-13, 12:44 PM

18.11.2013 - NHL
Penguins/Ducks over 5 @ -120 MarathonBet

ZdenoK · 11-19-13, 05:15 PM

19.11.2013 - NHL
Detroit Red Wings @ -106 Pinnacle
Detroit Red Wings team totals over 2.5 @ -143 Pinnacle
Detroit Red Wings/Nashville Predators over 5 @ -113 MarathonBet

St. Louis Blues @ -121 Pinnacle
St. Louis Blues team totals over 2.5 @ -152 Pinnacle

Chicago Blackhawks team totals over 2.5 @ -150 Pinnacle

Edmonton Oilers/Columbus Blue Jackets over 5 @ -137 MarathonBet