How many Games per day shall I bet to minimize VARIANCE

[BeatTheJerk]

Watch the video. You want to find numbers that are sufficiently different from the prevailing line at Pinny, Bookmaker, BOL, etc. That could be pregame spread or totals, could be live, halftime, props, anything. But the point is to assume that those books are accurate and then find numbers that are different and bet those. While it's nice I suppose to calculate your exact edge, you really don't need to. You just need a rough idea of how much off is sufficiently off. The truth is that it doesn't take that much. But I suppose if funds are limited you might be pickier. There are many variables.

Personally, I currently bet a lot of live and halftime CBB and some NFL props. But others might be betting more pregame stuff, like NBA and such. There are many different ways to skin the cat, but the cat itself is value, always value.

Watch the video that I posted lol ? Yeah I already did & enjoyed it very much, but specific details on the way he bets were left out which is some knowledge I wanted to gain from.

[d2bets]

Watch the video that I posted lol ? Yeah I already did & enjoyed it very much, but specific details on the way he bets were left out which is some knowledge I wanted to gain from.

Even if you saw my individual bets, it wouldn't tell you that.

Again, you need to watch and look at Pinnacle, Bookmaker and/or BOL, preferably all of them to synthesize the true line. Now that you have the true number, go look at the numbers available at your outs. See a number that is significantly different from the true line? Yes? Good, bet that. As many as possibly for as much as possible. As part of this, you're going to generally want to know what the half point is worth in basketball, football, etc. You'll get a feel for it. It may be difficult to calculate. exact edge, but not that difficult to know that you have an edge.

But again, to truly make this worthwhile, you need considerable funding at at least 3-5 good outs, ideally more. And then from there limiting can be a cat and mouse game. Some places you can do this ad infinitim, others you won't last long at all.

[BeatTheJerk]

Even if you saw my individual bets, it wouldn't tell you that.

Again, you need to watch and look at Pinnacle, Bookmaker and/or BOL, preferably all of them to synthesize the true line. Now that you have the true number, go look at the numbers available at your outs. See a number that is significantly different from the true line? Yes? Good, bet that. As many as possibly for as much as possible. As part of this, you're going to generally want to know what the half point is worth in basketball, football, etc. You'll get a feel for it. It may be difficult to calculate. exact edge, but not that difficult to know that you have an edge.

But again, to truly make this worthwhile, you need considerable funding at at least 3-5 good outs, ideally more. And then from there limiting can be a cat and mouse game. Some places you can do this ad infinitim, others you won't last long at all.

Ok I got it Chief.

[dante1]

Thanks for sharing your valuable feed. You seem to be quite knowledgeable and experienced. Do you say that I should check H2H of two teams before deciding totals (under/over) bet? Or should I purely follow the number based on what model churns out. I know at times my decision of betting under/over is hugely influenced by looking at H2H.. Thanks

I have a bunch of experience but not so sure about the knowledge part. but thank you, I believe you can never know all one needs to know concerning betting because of the many variables. you seem to have a handle on what you want to do. you gotta work on it even if you paper bet for months and months. refine your handicapping the best you can, add what you think is important and take away peripheral crap that is only noise. the problem is for every serious player you might find a different idea concerning handicapping.

don't have much to say about H2H.

[coolguy73739]

I have a bunch of experience but not so sure about the knowledge part. but thank you, I believe you can never know all one needs to know concerning betting because of the many variables. you seem to have a handle on what you want to do. you gotta work on it even if you paper bet for months and months. refine your handicapping the best you can, add what you think is important and take away peripheral crap that is only noise. the problem is for every serious player you might find a different idea concerning handicapping.

don't have much to say about H2H.

Thank you for your honest opinion. Some encouraging words there.. Do you bet these days or enjoying your retirement time? Thanks

[chilidog]

check out oddsjam.com if you want something automated to give you the same kinds of bets that d2bets is talking about. only works with regulated books in your state

[dante1]

Thank you for your honest opinion. Some encouraging words there.. Do you bet these days or enjoying your retirement time? Thanks

hey my friend. I still wager but this is a true story. I bet less now when I actually have some discretionary income than I did when I was a kid and had almost nothing. I remember on Mondays trying to hustle up money to pay the book. and I would swear I will never bet again. but I did. I realized it is part of my DNA and I love the thrill. but, I also realized that a $50 wager gives me just as much enjoyment as a $500 wager.

if you can't stop playing in lieu of killing yourself go easy on your plays. I certainly don't mean you I mean anybody who loves to bet on sports and just can't stop. my largest plays now are usually the Super Bowl and the Championship college game. often since I don't have great interest in base or basket I take a break. the irony of that is base is probably the easiest sport to win at. when I booked and we had a bad week it was almost always base. many locals shut down during base.

[dante1]

check out oddsjam.com if you want something automated to give you the same kinds of bets that d2bets is talking about. only works with regulated books in your state

hmm, interesting I will check it out. TY

[coolguy73739]

hey my friend. I still wager but this is a true story. I bet less now when I actually have some discretionary income than I did when I was a kid and had almost nothing. I remember on Mondays trying to hustle up money to pay the book. and I would swear I will never bet again. but I did. I realized it is part of my DNA and I love the thrill. but, I also realized that a $50 wager gives me just as much enjoyment as a $500 wager.

if you can't stop playing in lieu of killing yourself go easy on your plays. I certainly don't mean you I mean anybody who loves to bet on sports and just can't stop. my largest plays now are usually the Super Bowl and the Championship college game. often since I don't have great interest in base or basket I take a break. the irony of that is base is probably the easiest sport to win at. when I booked and we had a bad week it was almost always base. many locals shut down during base.

Thanks for the info. TBH, I am not addicted to betting but always striving to find that MAGIC FORMULA where I can bet with confidence knowing that I will be +ve at the end of the day, month or year. I know its hard to find anything sure-shot but have been working on some good outs in college basketball where I am confident that I will be up to something soon.. Rest all Variance and Destiny. GL & Cheers.

[Kindred]

Hey Guys,
Looks like finally I found a method to bet NCAAB totals and win consistently.
I have been trying this for last 1 week and I have been winning consistently with an average ROI of 15%.
Some day its 5-4, sometimes 6-4, 5-5, 7-3 etc.
What I like to know is how many games shall I play everyday to minimize the variance on this one.
With so many games and my edge on a few of them, I am underwhelmed/overwhelmed at times and need guidance.
For the time being I am planning on to keep about 10 games per day.

Thoughts and valuable suggestions from SHARP minds here?

Never minimize how many games per day..some days may be no games worth betting, others there will be many. Why artificially limit the amount of games. If you are even thinking like that, you're missing the point. You bet when you have +EV, when you don't then you don't bet. No reason to pass up on +EV bets just because it surpasses some artificial limit you set on how many games you can bet that day...it's all about +EV, figure that out the rest falls into place. It's not easy though, if it were we'd all be rich.

If warren buffet limited himself to only buying one stock a month, would that make sense to you? When opportunity knocks, jump..otherwise play it safe, unnecessary risk is -EV

[coolguy73739]

Never minimize how many games per day..some days may be no games worth betting, others there will be many. Why artificially limit the amount of games. If you are even thinking like that, you're missing the point. You bet when you have +EV, when you don't then you don't bet. No reason to pass up on +EV bets just because it surpasses some artificial limit you set on how many games you can bet that day...it's all about +EV, figure that out the rest falls into place. It's not easy though, if it were we'd all be rich.

If warren buffet limited himself to only buying one stock a month, would that make sense to you? When opportunity knocks, jump..otherwise play it safe, unnecessary risk is -EV

Thanks. The issue is with just a few games in each league, its hard to find +EV everyday and we are tempted to bet wrong games. College basketball being an exception as there are so many games to choose from. Even with best value +EV picked, its bound to go wrong on a regular basis.. Sports betting is tough..

[d2bets]

Hey Guys,
Looks like finally I found a method to bet NCAAB totals and win consistently.
I have been trying this for last 1 week and I have been winning consistently with an average ROI of 15%.
Some day its 5-4, sometimes 6-4, 5-5, 7-3 etc.
What I like to know is how many games shall I play everyday to minimize the variance on this one.
With so many games and my edge on a few of them, I am underwhelmed/overwhelmed at times and need guidance.
For the time being I am planning on to keep about 10 games per day.

Thoughts and valuable suggestions from SHARP minds here?

15% ROI would be pretty insanely good. If you claim to do that over a long period I'd need to see that proof. That's off the charts. Personally if you bet a lot, I feel like 5-6% is super and attainable, unless you have an out(s) that hangs loads of totally absurd numbers. Just aim for volume. Bet an average of $250k per week, with time off that's $10 mil for the year and you'll make $500k to $600k. Not bad. As I've said I'd rather go 5-6% for $10 mil annual than 15% for only $1 mil annual. The tough part is finding the outs that take the volume.

[coolguy73739]

15% ROI would be pretty insanely good. If you claim to do that over a long period I'd need to see that proof. That's off the charts. Personally if you bet a lot, I feel like 5-6% is super and attainable, unless you have an out(s) that hangs loads of totally absurd numbers. Just aim for volume. Bet an average of $250k per week, with time off that's $10 mil for the year and you'll make $500k to $600k. Not bad. As I've said I'd rather go 5-6% for $10 mil annual than 15% for only $1 mil annual. The tough part is finding the outs that take the volume.

Its VERY HARD to maintain 15% ROI long term. Like I said, Its been only a few days that I have picked up a trend thats giving me good returns, of course I am not betting BIG just as yet. Mainly focused on CBB due to shear size of volume or number of games. I wish it was always Saturdays everyday as I could select the THE BEST OF THE BEST +EV games daily! Today went 6-1 on totals so ya its happening but then again it was due to selecting 7 games out of about 140 games being played today.. Another issue is whether books will accept that kind of heavy bets you are talking about from a known winner everyday?.. Lets see.. Its all at the EXPERIMENT stage.. Thanks

[coolguy73739]

23 Jan 2022
09 : 26 AM


Under 131.5
PENDING

Arizona State Sun Devils @ Stanford Cardinal - ( Total Score +131.5 )
2.2
$100
Bet placed



23 Jan 2022
07 : 19 AM


Under 135.5
PENDING

UCLA Bruins @ Colorado Buffaloes - ( Total Score +135.5 )
1.95
$100
Bet placed



23 Jan 2022
12 : 51 AM


Under 143

Penn State Nittany Lions @ Iowa Hawkeyes - ( Total Score +143 )
1.9
$100
Win $190.00



23 Jan 2022
12 : 15 AM


Under 134

Saint Joseph's Hawks @ Virginia Commonwealth Rams - ( Total Score +134 )
1.95
$100
Win $195.00



22 Jan 2022
11 : 23 PM


Over

Valparaiso Crusaders @ Indiana State Sycamores - ( 1st Half Total Points +65 )
1.85
$100
Win $185.00



22 Jan 2022
10 : 18 PM


Under 130.5

University Of Massachusetts At Lowell @ New Hampshire Wildcats - ( Total Score +130.5 )
1.93
$100
Win $193.00



22 Jan 2022
10 : 17 PM


Under 138.5

Vanderbilt Commodores @ Florida Gators - ( Total Score +138.5 )
1.9
$100
Win $190.00



22 Jan 2022
10 : 16 PM


Over 142.5

Elon Phoenix @ Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens - ( Total Score +142.5 )
1.95
$100
Win $195.00



22 Jan 2022
10 : 16 PM


Over 142.5

Hofstra Pride @ Northeastern Huskies - ( Total Score +142.5 )
1.95
$100
Loss

[Waterstpub87]

Its VERY HARD to maintain 15% ROI long term. Like I said, Its been only a few days that I have picked up a trend thats giving me good returns, of course I am not betting BIG just as yet. Mainly focused on CBB due to shear size of volume or number of games. I wish it was always Saturdays everyday as I could select the THE BEST OF THE BEST +EV games daily! Today went 6-1 on totals so ya its happening but then again it was due to selecting 7 games out of about 140 games being played today.. Another issue is whether books will accept that kind of heavy bets you are talking about from a known winner everyday?.. Lets see.. Its all at the EXPERIMENT stage.. Thanks

Its really a question of what you are betting. Books did not like cbb totals a few years ago. One good month of CBB totals led to me losing bookmaker bonuses/rewards, heritage limited to $50 ect. End up having a losing year anyway, just a good Nov-Dec. If you were consistently winning on big things, NBA sides, NFL sides, NFL totals, MLB moneylines ect, you have a longer rope. If you are arbing russian table tennis, you won't last long.

College basketball scares the hell out me. Too many games, I don't touch it now. Even on those Saturdays, betting 10% of the games, totals and sides, you still wind up with like 30 bets. Its too much to keep up with injuries and other stuff.

Good luck with your stuff though, people may give you a hard time, by we are all rooting for you.

[coolguy73739]

The only sport I love to bet will be CBB.. So many unknowns, Its all ENIGMA for masses and If you have an edge, it can be exploited to MAX..
Can never touch NBA/NFL sides, its frightening!..
Thanks for your Good wishes and wish you a winning season.. Cheers

[coolguy73739]

Apart from Variance issue, I am always caught up between Point Spread and Totals. I am not sure which is more reliable/winnable to be bet and won in the long run. They say books are best at Spread and weak at Totals as obvious from low limits been offered on totals than sides. So if you have an edge on point spread, this looks more promising than betting on totals.
Thoughts?

[dante1]

Apart from Variance issue, I am always caught up between Point Spread and Totals. I am not sure which is more reliable/winnable to be bet and won in the long run. They say books are best at Spread and weak at Totals as obvious from low limits been offered on totals than sides. So if you have an edge on point spread, this looks more promising than betting on totals.
Thoughts?

obviously you are giving a ton of thought about this subject. reminds me of me. I guess part of the fun is attempting to out think the book and prevailing thought concerning all these wagering variables. studying even just one of them seems like it is a life long endeavor. problem is my friend we have very few givens, very few factual answers with the exception of the math involved that is constant and can't change.

now think about all the other advantages and disadvantages. first you must be aware almost every aspect of sports betting sides with the bookie. the only positive you have is you make the decision of who to play (and maybe this is more of a negative). first the vig, then misinformation, then the inability to use even good info, then player prejudice, and think about all the different types of wagers. Almost every one has worse vig than a straight bet. all the different types of betting gadgets may be fun but very difficult to beat. players who constantly play many piece parlays--oh my god. do they even have any idea the math involved.

this and so much more. but, stay the course even if you don't find anything helpful you will have fun during the journey.

[coolguy73739]

Totally agree.. So many questions, so less Answers.. Even with your best efforts and hard work nothing is guaranteed. The ride is getting quite BUMPY of lately.. lol.. chugging on..

[Waterstpub87]

Apart from Variance issue, I am always caught up between Point Spread and Totals. I am not sure which is more reliable/winnable to be bet and won in the long run. They say books are best at Spread and weak at Totals as obvious from low limits been offered on totals than sides. So if you have an edge on point spread, this looks more promising than betting on totals.
Thoughts?

I don't know if I would co-sign that. Books take less action on totals, especially less square action, leading to less money, to lower limits to avoid being pinned to a side. Think of the guy who is betting an NBA game cause he's bored. He is picking a side to root for. Less likely to pick the total. I don't know what kind of model you are using, but if it works for sides, its likely to work for totals as well if you are trying to project a game score.

If you look at the half point calculator, a half point of a total of 220 is worth about 6 cents, a half point on 4 spread is worth about ~7.5 cents. So if you beat the close by a half point, you'd rather do it in spreads. You should be beating totals by more to make the same amount.

Ride will be bumpy. Early last MLB season, I was down close to 60 units across sides, totals and props by may, went like 2-18 on opening day. Finished the year up 30 units. Its like that sometimes. Keep track of stuff. Lines moving in your favor means you'll win long term. Very important to keep track of it, so you know. If not, may be best to cut your losses, try to improve your process.

[coolguy73739]

I don't know if I would co-sign that. Books take less action on totals, especially less square action, leading to less money, to lower limits to avoid being pinned to a side. Think of the guy who is betting an NBA game cause he's bored. He is picking a side to root for. Less likely to pick the total. I don't know what kind of model you are using, but if it works for sides, its likely to work for totals as well if you are trying to project a game score.

If you look at the half point calculator, a half point of a total of 220 is worth about 6 cents, a half point on 4 spread is worth about ~7.5 cents. So if you beat the close by a half point, you'd rather do it in spreads. You should be beating totals by more to make the same amount.

Ride will be bumpy. Early last MLB season, I was down close to 60 units across sides, totals and props by may, went like 2-18 on opening day. Finished the year up 30 units. Its like that sometimes. Keep track of stuff. Lines moving in your favor means you'll win long term. Very important to keep track of it, so you know. If not, may be best to cut your losses, try to improve your process.

Played a few spreads and lost overall.. 4-6.. wanna go back to totals now.. lol..

[carolinacapper]

I tend to agree with D2 that a “top down” approach seems more sustainable than handicapping/originating numbers. Just go and find the best number. If you’re not gonna pay out for Don Best, I found MadduxSports has a website that does has live offshore odds. It’s not the best but it’s free and for someone just wanting to make a little extra each month it works. If you watch lines long enough you can learn a lot! I also agree that you need lots of outs, the more the better.

I do have a question that maybe someone can help with. What books do you feel are sharpest in each major sport? Used to be Pinny but in CBB I’m not sure they are anymore. Seems like BOL has sharper numbers and BM is often slow to move in CBB. Any info would be appreciated!

[Optional]

I do have a question that maybe someone can help with. What books do you feel are sharpest in each major sport? Used to be Pinny but in CBB I’m not sure they are anymore. Seems like BOL has sharper numbers and BM is often slow to move in CBB. Any info would be appreciated!

SBR is working on having this type of info available in our sportsbook reviews section. A deep analysis of odds timing, movement, spread changes etc.

[carolinacapper]

That would be awesome, however, I would be most interested in offshore books because I live in a state that does not have legalized books. I do look at Circa though, they seem pretty sharp. Thanks!

[coolguy73739]

That would be awesome, however, I would be most interested in offshore books because I live in a state that does not have legalized books. I do look at Circa though, they seem pretty sharp. Thanks!

Look Mate, what sharp book has got to do with your Number? If your number is SHARP, books will fall in line for you and your Model. The tussle is always about who is more skilled and then the better wins.. Instead of being worried about the sharpness of the books, you should be worried about how Good/Sharp your numbers are.. Its that simple!!..GL

[coolguy73739]

[COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.87)]Lets see SHARP..

New Hampshire Wildcats -2

Stony Brook Seawolves @ New Hampshire Wildcats - ( Line +2 )
1.85
$100
$185.00







Akron Zips 7

Akron Zips @ Toledo Rockets - ( Line +7 )
1.93
$100
$193.00







Niagara Purple Eagles -1.5

Niagara Purple Eagles @ Siena Saints - ( Line -1.5 )
1.9
$100
$190.00







Fairfield Stags -2

Fairfield Stags @ Rider Broncs - ( Line -2 )
1.9
$100
$190.00







Rhode Island Rams 6.5

Rhode Island Rams @ Dayton Flyers - ( Line +6.5 )
1.85
$100
$185.00







Wyoming Cowboys -7.5

Wyoming Cowboys @ U.S. Air Force Falcons - ( Line -7.5 )
1.9
$100
$190.00









[/COLOR]
[COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.87)]

[/COLOR]

[carolinacapper]

Look Mate, what sharp book has got to do with your Number? If your number is SHARP, books will fall in line for you and your Model. The tussle is always about who is more skilled and then the better wins.. Instead of being worried about the sharpness of the books, you should be worried about how Good/Sharp your numbers are.. Its that simple!!..GL

Thanks CoolGuy but I don’t make any numbers or use a model. I just want to get a number that’s off- maybe at a square book or one that moves slow. I prob couldn’t name any players on a lot of the CBB teams that I bet. I just want to beat the closing line. If i have time I’ll do live betting to get good middles, especially if it’s a game I bet pre-game.

[d2bets]

[COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.87)]Lets see SHARP..

New Hampshire Wildcats -2

Stony Brook Seawolves @ New Hampshire Wildcats - ( Line +2 )
1.85
$100
$185.00







Akron Zips 7

Akron Zips @ Toledo Rockets - ( Line +7 )
1.93
$100
$193.00







Niagara Purple Eagles -1.5

Niagara Purple Eagles @ Siena Saints - ( Line -1.5 )
1.9
$100
$190.00







Fairfield Stags -2

Fairfield Stags @ Rider Broncs - ( Line -2 )
1.9
$100
$190.00







Rhode Island Rams 6.5

Rhode Island Rams @ Dayton Flyers - ( Line +6.5 )
1.85
$100
$185.00







Wyoming Cowboys -7.5

Wyoming Cowboys @ U.S. Air Force Falcons - ( Line -7.5 )
1.9
$100
$190.00









[/COLOR]
[COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.87)]

[/COLOR]

Looks like 2-4. Although had you bet Akron at the right time you could have had +9 and went 3-3. Most important thing is getting the best number. We'll say this over and over until you get it. In other words, we'll keep saying it.

[d2bets]

Thanks CoolGuy but I don’t make any numbers or use a model. I just want to get a number that’s off- maybe at a square book or one that moves slow. I prob couldn’t name any players on a lot of the CBB teams that I bet. I just want to beat the closing line. If i have time I’ll do live betting to get good middles, especially if it’s a game I bet pre-game.

He doesn't get it and never will.

You need to move to a new state. You'll be tripping over yourself picking up the cash. Almost like the early days of offshore.

As to the original question, the answer is simple. The more different wagers you make the less variance. You will get to where you belong faster. If you make good bets, that's good. If you make bad bets, that's bad. But variance goes down as you bet more.

[coolguy73739]

Looks like 2-4. Although had you bet Akron at the right time you could have had +9 and went 3-3. Most important thing is getting the best number. We'll say this over and over until you get it. In other words, we'll keep saying it.

Thanks for your encouraging words D2bets, really appreciate although I am very impatient and cannot sustain these intermittent losses for long. Switched to TOTALS for the time being and again getting into +ve territory. Totals have less variables in my opinion and are less stressful, I don't feel jittery or anxious with total bets but I might be wrong. Playing following games, playing more due to EDGE on these games and less expected Variance.
I can post my picks for some days just to see how it goes if no one has an issue posting picks in this forum.
UMKC o140.5
Penn state o138
Mercer o138
drexel o139.5
austin peay u137
duke o143.5
morehead st o137
s utah u147.5
wyoming o146
n mexico u136
colgate o138
liberty o137
howard u150.5
alcorn st u138
jackson st u131.5
alabama st u134.5
norfolk st u137

I never waited till close up time but now will bet just before game start time to check closing lines fitting exactly as expected.
Out of these 17 games, I am expecting to click at least 10-11 games to be in the range of 12-22% ROI.. Thanks..

[d2bets]

Thanks for your encouraging words D2bets, really appreciate although I am very impatient and cannot sustain these intermittent losses for long. Switched to TOTALS for the time being and again getting into +ve territory. Totals have less variables in my opinion and are less stressful, I don't feel jittery or anxious with total bets but I might be wrong. Playing following games, playing more due to EDGE on these games and less expected Variance.
I can post my picks for some days just to see how it goes if no one has an issue posting picks in this forum.
UMKC o140.5
Penn state o138
Mercer o138
drexel o139.5
austin peay u137
duke o143.5
morehead st o137
s utah u147.5
wyoming o146
n mexico u136
colgate o138
liberty o137
howard u150.5
alcorn st u138
jackson st u131.5
alabama st u134.5
norfolk st u137

I never waited till close up time but now will bet just before game start time to check closing lines fitting exactly as expected.
Out of these 17 games, I am expecting to click at least 10-11 games to be in the range of 12-22% ROI.. Thanks..

So you're going to bet all these totals at the closing number even if it's moved 2 or 3 points or whatever? You're just going to take whatever is there? If so, you're doing it all wrong.

Here's my bet: I bet at least 1, probably more, will be dependent on your getting the right number, which could easily be the difference between going 8-9 and 10-7. You must get the best number and you must bet at the right time. It's the single most important factor. Going to drill this in until you get it because for some reason I want you to win.

On Saturday, I ended up with 60 wagers. I counted at least 5 that I won because of line value. Meaning my side would have lost with consensus line but I won because I had a better number. I went 36-24 (60%), but had I taken market lines I would have gone 31-29 and lost against the juice. Most of this is halftime where the number is even more critical, but it applies to pregame as well.

[coolguy73739]

So you're going to bet all these totals at the closing number even if it's moved 2 or 3 points or whatever? You're just going to take whatever is there? If so, you're doing it all wrong.

Here's my bet: I bet at least 1, probably more, will be dependent on your getting the right number, which could easily be the difference between going 8-9 and 10-7. You must get the best number and you must bet at the right time. It's the single most important factor. Going to drill this in until you get it because for some reason I want you to win.

On Saturday, I ended up with 60 wagers. I counted at least 5 that I won because of line value. Meaning my side would have lost with consensus line but I won because I had a better number. I went 36-24 (60%), but had I taken market lines I would have gone 31-29 and lost against the juice. Most of this is halftime where the number is even more critical, but it applies to pregame as well.

I'm not gonna bet all the games but will check closing numbers whether they fit into my numbers. Might end up playing about 14-15, will see. Whats the right time to bet anyways? I believe closing number is the best judge and the right time. All the consensus and biases are balanced during that time I guess..
I have experimented with many variables this season and these picks could be some of the last experiments I can afford to take before I close down and move on.. A lot depends how I perform from now on.. GL

[d2bets]

I'm not gonna bet all the games but will check closing numbers whether they fit into my numbers. Might end up playing about 14-15, will see. Whats the right time to bet anyways? I believe closing number is the best judge and the right time. All the consensus and biases are balanced during that time I guess..
I have experimented with many variables this season and these picks could be some of the last experiments I can afford to take before I close down and move on.. A lot depends how I perform from now on.. GL

The best time to bet is whenever you can get the best number on what you want. If you know your side in advance, best to watch the screen and if you see it your number getting worst, grab it; if its' getting better, then wait. There is no one best time to bet.

The problem with only betting closers at your number is you'll end up having to pass on some of the best stuff. So if you like O136, but it moved to 139 and so you pass; well, you should have grabbed the O136. That's a great bet. You just have to get the best number. So important. You also need to shop around because even at the closer if you have enough options you can usually find 1-1.5 pt differences.

[coolguy73739]

Thanks for such critical info. Will check the numbers at the closure for today at least and will try to post updated picks if I can..
You seem to be on FIRE with your winnings.. Will b in touch.. GL

[dante1]

wait, maybe I am misunderstanding this method. I really didn't pay too much attention until l read part of this. let me give an example. are you saying if a total increases from 156 to 158.5 you should play the 158.5 over? that is the line change method I am familiar with--or do I have this completely wrong?