How many Games per day shall I bet to minimize VARIANCE

[dante1]

the greater the number of pieces the greater your chance of losing. that is unless you are magic man and can hit above 55% constantly. how many can do that? maybe D2 and I wish him all the luck in the world, in fact I wish all of you great luck. but remember this is math and math does not lie. unless you are really tired and feel like shit and make a mistake--that is very possible. so check my math

[d2bets]

the greater the number of pieces the greater your chance of losing. that is unless you are magic man and can hit above 55% constantly. how many can do that? maybe D2 and I wish him all the luck in the world, in fact I wish all of you great luck. but remember this is math and math does not lie. unless you are really tired and feel like shit and make a mistake--that is very possible. so check my math

It doesn't take magic. It takes beating the closing line. And if you bet -110 you don't need 55%, although it's certainly attainable. Anything above 52.4% is profit.

[dante1]

It doesn't take magic. It takes beating the closing line. And if you bet -110 you don't need 55%, although it's certainly attainable. Anything above 52.4% is profit.

it takes magic and luck my friend. how many college football games might a player win in a season. of course that depends on his number of plays. so again let's do a hypothetical situation. a player makes 200 college football plays in a year and wins 110. now think about college football or for that matter any sport. how many games are decided in the last minute, the last play or the last score. a ton of them. you don't think that is luck. you win a game by one point or two points or three or four there is a certain amount of luck involved. no person on the planet is good enough to win a number of close games without luck.

my friend I have booked for decades and played for many decades. when you win a close game luck is involved, when you lose a close game luck is involved. and if you play a ton of games daily you will be headed to bankruptcy. of course you are the exception.

[dante1]

true story and many of you if you are playing for a long time this has happened to you.

you have a team lets say they are getting 2.5 and it is a college basketball game. they score first and never not for one second are losing by the spread. that is until the very last 15 seconds when the other team makes a three pointer at the buzzer and you lose by three. you were winning that game for the entire game and you lose it at the last shot. that is total luck.

I have been in this game too long not to understand luck and basic math. that example could easily be the other way around and you win the game at the last shot. again total luck, there is no formula that includes figuring out the luck aspect. that is another reason it is difficult to hit that magic percentage season after season. and if you play a ton of games you are in trouble.

[dante1]

one last thought. who in the universe can have the knowledge, expertise and skill to handicap a large number of games every day. my god if I decide to seriously handicap a game it takes hours. no individual short of a divine soul can handicap 60 games a day and do it properly. that again is total and complete luck. I or you can't handicap 60 games in a week.

come on my friends this isn't brain surgery this is common sense and understanding math.

[d2bets]

true story and many of you if you are playing for a long time this has happened to you.

you have a team lets say they are getting 2.5 and it is a college basketball game. they score first and never not for one second are losing by the spread. that is until the very last 15 seconds when the other team makes a three pointer at the buzzer and you lose by three. you were winning that game for the entire game and you lose it at the last shot. that is total luck.

I have been in this game too long not to understand luck and basic math. that example could easily be the other way around and you win the game at the last shot. again total luck, there is no formula that includes figuring out the luck aspect. that is another reason it is difficult to hit that magic percentage season after season. and if you play a ton of games you are in trouble.

I bet basketball more than anything. I make sure I beat the prevailing line. Damn near I everyday I have a game that I win that I get to shout "line value". Without the line value wins, I wouldn't win. Imagine betting 20 games where you would go 10-10. But with line value you go 11-9. Now do that every day. Winning.

[d2bets]

one last thought. who in the universe can have the knowledge, expertise and skill to handicap a large number of games every day. my god if I decide to seriously handicap a game it takes hours. no individual short of a divine soul can handicap 60 games a day and do it properly. that again is total and complete luck. I or you can't handicap 60 games in a week.

come on my friends this isn't brain surgery this is common sense and understanding math.

I do virtually zero handicapping. I just watch the numbers. That's it. Easiest way to win.

[coolguy73739]

one last thought. who in the universe can have the knowledge, expertise and skill to handicap a large number of games every day. my god if I decide to seriously handicap a game it takes hours. no individual short of a divine soul can handicap 60 games a day and do it properly. that again is total and complete luck. I or you can't handicap 60 games in a week.

come on my friends this isn't brain surgery this is common sense and understanding math.

Totally Agree.. Well said..

[d2bets]

one last thought. who in the universe can have the knowledge, expertise and skill to handicap a large number of games every day. my god if I decide to seriously handicap a game it takes hours. no individual short of a divine soul can handicap 60 games a day and do it properly. that again is total and complete luck. I or you can't handicap 60 games in a week.

come on my friends this isn't brain surgery this is common sense and understanding math.

60 games a week. On a good CBB Saturday where I'm dialed in, I can get over 60 wagers in in one day. With that many, I'm almost certain to win.

[coolguy73739]

I do virtually zero handicapping. I just watch the numbers. That's it. Easiest way to win.

Do you check last H2H of both teams (current or last season) and does those numbers affect your selection? Or You purely go based on your Model numbers irrespective of what H2H indicates? Thanks

[BeatTheJerk]

I do virtually zero handicapping. I just watch the numbers. That's it. Easiest way to win.

You should create a thread & post your picks. I’d like to follow your success that you so consistently talk about.

[d2bets]

You should create a thread & post your picks. I’d like to follow your success that you so consistently talk about.

I've described this so many times.

I don't "make picks".

I follow the line movement and pick off value wherever and whenever I find it. Often, it's live or at halftimes and the lines I get are not widely available. Props also, but everything is super price-sensitive.

It works and that's all I care about. Not looking for a following.

Just trying to help people here by describing what works. But it's clear that most just can't even conceive, even though most could probably do it if they understood, cared and put the effort in.

[d2bets]

Do you check last H2H of both teams (current or last season) and does those numbers affect your selection? Or You purely go based on your Model numbers irrespective of what H2H indicates? Thanks

The only thing that affects my selections is line movement, market price, and price available to me.

[dante1]

The only thing that affects my selections is line movement, market price, and price available to me.

it would be almost impossible to find significant line movement in 50 or 60 games. I used that strategy for years and a significant line movement, a movement that is relevant is almost rare.

I state the obvious the more games you play the greater chance you will lose (in the long run)

[dante1]

maybe I am wrong about finding significant line movement. I am not afraid to write...I may be wrong. tell you what the next time one of you guys find 50 significant line movements in any sport in any day be kind enough to list them. I don't think that will happen, but if I am proved wrong I will apologize.

I searched for line movements for more than a year in more than one sport and finding a significant line movement is not easy. Oh, it happens but if on a college football full schedule day you can even find a half dozen line movements that is a good day. BTW a half point or a point is not significant.

[d2bets]

maybe I am wrong about finding significant line movement. I am not afraid to write...I may be wrong. tell you what the next time one of you guys find 50 significant line movements in any sport in any day be kind enough to list them. I don't think that will happen, but if I am proved wrong I will apologize.

I searched for line movements for more than a year in more than one sport and finding a significant line movement is not easy. Oh, it happens but if on a college football full schedule day you can even find a half dozen line movements that is a good day. BTW a half point or a point is not significant.

Wrong. If you beat the closing line by one full point every time you will win. Of course different points have different values, but generally speaking. I am not looking for "sure things". Just looking for "55%" things and betting them as much as possible.

Currently, I find 1.5-2.5 point differences plus at halftimes. Massive edges.

[dante1]

again my final point for today. remember when you do find a significant line movement many times that is generated by a bunch of high action on one team. so think about this for a second if that action is lets say generated by a syndicate of high knowledge players that is no guarantee they will win. granted syndicate betting, if it still exists, might give you a slight advantage who knows for sure.

l

[dante1]

again my final point for today. remember when you do find a significant line movement many times that is generated by a bunch of high action on one team. so think about this for a second if that action is lets say generated by a syndicate of high knowledge players that is no guarantee they will win. granted syndicate betting, if it still exists, might give you a slight advantage who knows for sure.



l

my friend I always respected your opinion on almost everything. lets say on this particular subject we agree to disagree.

however, a member a few posts ago challenged you to list your plays. why not do that. the next time you have even 20 plays for a day which you produced through line movement or whatever method list them. make a dedicated thread and call it whatever you please produce the games you liked via your method and do that for a month or so.

if you do I will make a friendly gentleman wager with you. if you produce lets say 200 picks in a month and have a winning record I will apologize and give you the benefit of every doubt. playing he said, he said about this issue is ridiculous especially when I know by decades of experience you got this one wrong.

one friend to another prove me wrong.

[d2bets]

my friend I always respected your opinion on almost everything. lets say on this particular subject we agree to disagree.

however, a member a few posts ago challenged you to list your plays. why not do that. the next time you have even 20 plays for a day which you produced through line movement or whatever method list them. make a dedicated thread and call it whatever you please produce the games you liked via your method and do that for a month or so.

if you do I will make a friendly gentleman wager with you. if you produce lets say 200 picks in a month and have a winning record I will apologize and give you the benefit of every doubt. playing he said, he said about this issue is ridiculous especially when I know by decades of experience you got this one wrong.

one friend to another prove me wrong.

Again, friend, that's not how I wager. In fact, I don't bet that much pregame stuff. Sometimes I do, but it's a bit more work than I'm willing to do most days. But if I do, I'm going to be betting numbers that won't be available anymore when I post them. So I'd be accused of posting fake numbers.

If a total moves from 132 to 134, I'm betting O132...I will absolutely not wager O134. Those are two different animals. But by the time I post it, nobody would be able to wager O132. And again, most of what I do now is live and halftime.

I don't care to prove anybody wrong. If I showed you my sportsbook accounts, you'd understand.

But I will agree with you that virtually nobody can win long-run betting -110 against ATS closing numbers. You can't model around it. The way to win is to squeeze out value in every wager. Of course a lot of that will depend on an individual's portfolio of outs and associated limits. My biggest obstacle to winning the way I want to is wager limits and limited outs.

[coolguy73739]

The only thing that affects my selections is line movement, market price, and price available to me.

So you absolutely don't check H2H of both teams before or even after placing your wager ? H2H has no bearing on how lines are set you are saying?

[d2bets]

So you absolutely don't check H2H of both teams before or even after placing your wager ? H2H has no bearing on how lines are set you are saying?

I'm sure it has bearing on how lines are set. But I don't handicap the game. I bet line movement value. Consistently beat the closing/prevailing line and you will win. I could restate that 100 different ways and I'm still not sure you are going to get it, so I'll leave it at that. Feel free not to believe me, doesn't affect me.

[BeatTheJerk]

I'm sure it has bearing on how lines are set. But I don't handicap the game. I bet line movement value. Consistently beat the closing/prevailing line and you will win. I could restate that 100 different ways and I'm still not sure you are going to get it, so I'll leave it at that. Feel free not to believe me, doesn't affect me.

Mr.D2bets is this you pal ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7N05vGcw_tI&t=432s

You both describe a way of betting in the same manner from my POV.

[d2bets]

Mr.D2bets is this you pal ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7N05vGcw_tI&t=432s

You both describe a way of betting in the same manner from my POV.

No, but basically yes. Good shit. Thanks for sharing. If I could, I'd consider moving to Colorado. Clearly, Colorado is better than Illinois right now.

But yeah, that's what I do. And see how that guy is betting hundreds of games per day. The more the better. That's how to do it.

But really, that guy should not have allowed that video. He might regret that.

I gotta get a bunch of assistants to keep me logged in. Yeah, a bunch of books log me out every 10 damn minutes. Super annoying.

[d2bets]

^^ Actually, does anybody know that guy? He looks familiar, like I'm thinking maybe he was at an SBR Bash in the past?

[coolguy73739]

again my final point for today. remember when you do find a significant line movement many times that is generated by a bunch of high action on one team. so think about this for a second if that action is lets say generated by a syndicate of high knowledge players that is no guarantee they will win. granted syndicate betting, if it still exists, might give you a slight advantage who knows for sure.

l

Thanks for sharing your valuable feed. You seem to be quite knowledgeable and experienced. Do you say that I should check H2H of two teams before deciding totals (under/over) bet? Or should I purely follow the number based on what model churns out. I know at times my decision of betting under/over is hugely influenced by looking at H2H.. Thanks

[chilidog]

one last thought. who in the universe can have the knowledge, expertise and skill to handicap a large number of games every day. my god if I decide to seriously handicap a game it takes hours. no individual short of a divine soul can handicap 60 games a day and do it properly. that again is total and complete luck. I or you can't handicap 60 games in a week.
come on my friends this isn't brain surgery this is common sense and understanding math.

maybe I am wrong about finding significant line movement. I am not afraid to write...I may be wrong. tell you what the next time one of you guys find 50 significant line movements in any sport in any day be kind enough to list them. I don't think that will happen, but if I am proved wrong I will apologize.
I searched for line movements for more than a year in more than one sport and finding a significant line movement is not easy. Oh, it happens but if on a college football full schedule day you can even find a half dozen line movements that is a good day. BTW a half point or a point is not significant.

i use a web scraper and along with excel, it takes me about 30 minutes in the morning to analyze every US game on the board that day, and then another 15-20 minutes at night to run through tomorrow's international soccer games. i put in my US bets every morning, and i do my soccer picks the night before.

i couldn't imagine manually capping any given game. just about any info you can find that you use in your capping is going to be built into the line anyway. the key is to set your own lines and bet the discrepancies.

[BeatTheJerk]

No, but basically yes. Good shit. Thanks for sharing. If I could, I'd consider moving to Colorado. Clearly, Colorado is better than Illinois right now.

But yeah, that's what I do. And see how that guy is betting hundreds of games per day. The more the better. That's how to do it.

But really, that guy should not have allowed that video. He might regret that.

I gotta get a bunch of assistants to keep me logged in. Yeah, a bunch of books log me out every 10 damn minutes. Super annoying.

You’re welcome dude. That was a very interesting/entertaining vid into the world of professional bettors on a high scale both volume & amounts.

[d2bets]

You’re welcome dude. That was a very interesting/entertaining vid into the world of professional bettors on a high scale both volume & amounts.

Even though that's a higher scale professional operation, really anybody can do what he's doing and win on a smaller scale. As I've said before, the only variables are knowledge, time, funding, and access to good outs. If you have all of those, you can win for sure. No handicapping required. Actually, no handicapping allowed.

[dante1]

i use a web scraper and along with excel, it takes me about 30 minutes in the morning to analyze every US game on the board that day, and then another 15-20 minutes at night to run through tomorrow's international soccer games. i put in my US bets every morning, and i do my soccer picks the night before.

i couldn't imagine manually capping any given game. just about any info you can find that you use in your capping is going to be built into the line anyway. the key is to set your own lines and bet the discrepancies.

good points.

[dante1]

Even though that's a higher scale professional operation, really anybody can do what he's doing and win on a smaller scale. As I've said before, the only variables are knowledge, time, funding, and access to good outs. If you have all of those, you can win for sure. No handicapping required. Actually, no handicapping allowed.

do me a big favor my friend and I only ask because I know you are basically an honest guy. how about listing a few plays today or tomorrow. no judgement, no criticism. you decide how many and toss them in this exact thread. no need for 50 or 60 how about 10 of them. you need not even rationalize/explain them.

[BeatTheJerk]

do me a big favor my friend and I only ask because I know you are basically an honest guy. how about listing a few plays today or tomorrow. no judgement, no criticism. you decide how many and toss them in this exact thread. no need for 50 or 60 how about 10 of them. you need not even rationalize/explain them.

+1.

[d2bets]

do me a big favor my friend and I only ask because I know you are basically an honest guy. how about listing a few plays today or tomorrow. no judgement, no criticism. you decide how many and toss them in this exact thread. no need for 50 or 60 how about 10 of them. you need not even rationalize/explain them.

Do I need to do it in real-time? I'm a little too busy when I'm actually entering the play, mostly live and at halftime. I think I did 2 or 3 pregames yesterday vs. 20+ live.

And, like I said, I am almost exclusively doing live/halftimes, and the numbers I bet are not going to be what is widely available offshore. That's kinda the whole "point" (or two or three).

So when BM/Pinny have a halftime where the total is, let's say 137, I may be betting O134.5, or something like that. On any given day, that play may win or lose, but over time if that 137 is roughly 50/50, then I know that O134.5 is > 55% winner easy. Rinse and repeat ad nauseam. But again, a small sample size of 10 of those bets means nothing.
Watch the youtube video -- it pretty much explains how it works.

I did quite well yesterday. I could post them now, but wouldn't expect anyone to believe it. Plus, the amounts/units do differ -- I basically just bet whatever the book will let me bet.

Speaking of variance, I did have one hellish day a couple weeks ago where I lost damn near every play. Almost had me questioning myself. Took me more than a week to get that back, but now I'm back over that hill. It happens from time to time.

[chilidog]

do me a big favor my friend and I only ask because I know you are basically an honest guy. how about listing a few plays today or tomorrow. no judgement, no criticism. you decide how many and toss them in this exact thread. no need for 50 or 60 how about 10 of them. you need not even rationalize/explain them.

Why's he need to prove anything to you?

Just because you don't know how to do it, doesn't mean it can't be done.

I 100% can assure you that d2bets is right, and I've never even spoken to him.

When you have an edge, you make as many bets as you possibly can. It's a mathemetical certainty you will make money. Why would you bet as few as you could? Makes zero sense.

If you know that you have a 2% edge on 50 games, why on earth would you not bet on all 50?

Majority of people have zero clue how to quantify their edge. Majority of people lose, too.

[BeatTheJerk]

Why's he need to prove anything to you?

Just because you don't know how to do it, doesn't mean it can't be done.

I 100% can assure you that d2bets is right, and I've never even spoken to him.

When you have an edge, you make as many bets as you possibly can. It's a mathemetical certainty you will make money. Why would you bet as few as you could? Makes zero sense.

If you know that you have a 2% edge on 50 games, why on earth would you not bet on all 50?

Majority of people have zero clue how to quantify their edge. Majority of people lose, too.

Dante & I are not looking for proof, we are looking for a real life example for one night to get a better idea of what he is betting on. I think I can speak for both of us & say we believe him 100%.

[d2bets]

Dante & I are not looking for proof, we are looking for a real life example for one night to get a better idea of what he is betting on. I think I can speak for both of us & say we believe him 100%.

Watch the video. You want to find numbers that are sufficiently different from the prevailing line at Pinny, Bookmaker, BOL, etc. That could be pregame spread or totals, could be live, halftime, props, anything. But the point is to assume that those books are accurate and then find numbers that are different and bet those. While it's nice I suppose to calculate your exact edge, you really don't need to. You just need a rough idea of how much off is sufficiently off. The truth is that it doesn't take that much. But I suppose if funds are limited you might be pickier. There are many variables.

Personally, I currently bet a lot of live and halftime CBB and some NFL props. But others might be betting more pregame stuff, like NBA and such. There are many different ways to skin the cat, but the cat itself is value, always value.