How many Games per day shall I bet to minimize VARIANCE

[d2bets]

How long have you been successful now at this style of betting ? I know you haven’t always bet this way early on in your gambling career.

What style? Value betting? Betting based on the number? Started in 2002, with some time off gaps in between. In other words, yeah, I know what works. And I know it has nothing to do with luck or with guesswork.

[d2bets]

TBH This season has been a recreational experiment for me. Bet size is 50-100..if things work out, Sky is truly the limit I can bet in future.
I feel like I'm learning some fine techniques of betting this season..
Thanks for sharing your thoughts..And let's make it happen.. Good luck with your betting!! Cheers!!

Alright man, track it all. Let us know your win percentage after the NCAA Tourney.

Honestly, I don't know even know my win %. I don't really bet that way so I don't care. Sometimes I bet both sides. Sometimes I bet alts or ML or props. Anywhere I see value. Sometimes I'll grab +180 and can come back partial the other way at -160. Stuff like that.

[coolguy73739]

Went 8-4 today.. I believe if I play with Larger MARGIN of points, I could cut down on losses.. But there's always that Variance biting you occasionally.. But definitely this refined technique is working. I am spending much lesser time on my Model and don't check games after bets are placed. Can spare and spend good quality time with Family too.. Thanks..

[coolguy73739]

Alright man, track it all. Let us know your win percentage after the NCAA Tourney.

Honestly, I don't know even know my win %. I don't really bet that way so I don't care. Sometimes I bet both sides. Sometimes I bet alts or ML or props. Anywhere I see value. Sometimes I'll grab +180 and can come back partial the other way at -160. Stuff like that.

Hope you had a winning day too.. Cheers.. GL!!

[coolguy73739]

08 Feb 2022
11 : 28 PM


Over 144.5

Lipscomb Bisons @ Liberty Flames - ( Total Score +144.5 )









08 Feb 2022
11 : 28 PM


Under 136

Wichita State Shockers @ UCF Knights - ( Total Score +136 )









08 Feb 2022
11 : 26 PM


Under 144.5

Syracuse Orange @ Boston Eagles - ( Total Score +144.5 )









08 Feb 2022
11 : 25 PM


Under 140.5

Saint Louis Billikens @ La Salle Explorers - ( Total Score +140.5 )









08 Feb 2022
11 : 24 PM








Multi Bet

2 Legs Bet - ( Over 129, And 1 Others )











Over 129 - Total Score
Includes Overtime
Michigan Wolverines @ Penn State Nittany Lions@1.85



Over 131.5 - Total Score
Includes Overtime
Evansville Purple Aces @ Indiana State Sycamores@1.93

[coolguy73739]

08 Feb 2022
11 : 28 PM


Over 144.5

Lipscomb Bisons @ Liberty Flames - ( Total Score +144.5 ) WIN









08 Feb 2022
11 : 28 PM


Under 136

Wichita State Shockers @ UCF Knights - ( Total Score +136 ) LOST FINAL SCORE 66-71..HURTS









08 Feb 2022
11 : 26 PM


Under 144.5

Syracuse Orange @ Boston Eagles - ( Total Score +144.5 ) WIN









08 Feb 2022
11 : 25 PM


Under 140.5

Saint Louis Billikens @ La Salle Explorers - ( Total Score +140.5 ) WIN









08 Feb 2022
11 : 24 PM








Multi Bet

2 Legs Bet - ( Over 129, And 1 Others ) LOSS











Over 129 - Total Score
Includes Overtime
Michigan Wolverines @ Penn State Nittany Lions@1.85



Over 131.5 - Total Score
Includes Overtime
Evansville Purple Aces @ Indiana State Sycamores@1.93

3-2,

[BeatTheJerk]

3-2,

Keep posting your picks & keep up the solid work here.

[coolguy73739]

Keep posting your picks & keep up the solid work here.

Thanks Mate..

[coolguy73739]

Under 120.5

Indiana-Purdue Indianapolis Jaguars @ Indiana-Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons - ( Total Score +120.5 )
1.95












Under 130.5

Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles @ Eastern Illinois Panthers - ( Total Score +130.5 )
1.9












Under 140.5

Southeast Missouri State Redhawks @ Austin Peay State Governors - ( Total Score +140.5 )
2












Under 140.5

Ohio Bobcats @ Central Michigan Chippewas - ( Total Score +140.5 )
1.95












Under 140.5

The Citadel Bulldogs @ North Carolina Greensboro Spartans - ( Total Score +140.5 )
1.8












Under 137.5

Northeastern Huskies @ Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens - ( Total Score +137.5 )
1.87


















Multi Bet

2 Legs Bet - ( Under 128, And 1 Others )
3.67










Under 128 - Total Score
Includes Overtime
Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers @ Wagner Seahawks@1.93



Over 155 - Total Score
Includes Overtime
South Dakota State Jackrabbits @ Denver Pioneers@1.90

[coolguy73739]

2-5.

[coolguy73739]

Akron u 129.5
xavier u 138.5
detroit u 142.5
green bay u 128.5
saint louis u 140.5
boise st u130.5
fresno u 130.5

[dante1]

cool guy you had a couple of bad days. we all do and I thought I read you were working on a system. my advice don't give up so easily on a system you nerd a ton of pieces to properly evaluate. second, if you want to try again use your system but only play two or three gaemes. the games that seem the strongest.

or paper play for a year or so.

[coolguy73739]

cool guy you had a couple of bad days. we all do and I thought I read you were working on a system. my advice don't give up so easily on a system you nerd a ton of pieces to properly evaluate. second, if you want to try again use your system but only play two or three gaemes. the games that seem the strongest.

or paper play for a year or so.

Thanks for your motivational words, Appreciate it. Indeed, it was a shocker to see 2-5 kind of result on two consecutive days, not happened in a long time. Taken a break, started looking for flaws in the system, not betting my real money until I am confident again. You are absolutely right, I will PAPER PLAY for a few more days and then see how it goes. Honestly, my system is good but sometimes I am unable to read between the numbers as I have included so many data ( at least 3-4 different ways) to arrive at my final number. Working on same.
Thanks for not trolling as these forums are so full of negative and hapless minds but can't blame them for not winning as Guess work or Hypothesis don't work in betting. I still strongly believe that Betting has to be Data driven and Major leagues are not winnable in the long run especially NFL.
Your message has definitely pumped in some positivity into me and I can't thank you enough to uplift my self-esteem.
Will be in touch.. Cheers and as Always Good Luck and Happy Days !!..

[dante1]

Thanks for your motivational words, Appreciate it. Indeed, it was a shocker to see 2-5 kind of result on two consecutive days, not happened in a long time. Taken a break, started looking for flaws in the system, not betting my real money until I am confident again. You are absolutely right, I will PAPER PLAY for a few more days and then see how it goes. Honestly, my system is good but sometimes I am unable to read between the numbers as I have included so many data ( at least 3-4 different ways) to arrive at my final number. Working on same.
Thanks for not trolling as these forums are so full of negative and hapless minds but can't blame them for not winning as Guess work or Hypothesis don't work in betting. I still strongly believe that Betting has to be Data driven and Major leagues are not winnable in the long run especially NFL.
Your message has definitely pumped in some positivity into me and I can't thank you enough to uplift my self-esteem.
Will be in touch.. Cheers and as Always Good Luck and Happy Days !!..

your words are powerful and it seems you know the ups and downs. I think you have a good chance at success. as you know now it is a very difficult game to beat. keep up research and let us know if you have some confidence in your revised system. don't forget a hitter fails 7 times out of 10, a sports bettor fails often also hopefully not 70% of the time.

hang in.

[Waterstpub87]

Thanks for your motivational words, Appreciate it. Indeed, it was a shocker to see 2-5 kind of result on two consecutive days, not happened in a long time. Taken a break, started looking for flaws in the system, not betting my real money until I am confident again. You are absolutely right, I will PAPER PLAY for a few more days and then see how it goes. Honestly, my system is good but sometimes I am unable to read between the numbers as I have included so many data ( at least 3-4 different ways) to arrive at my final number. Working on same.
Thanks for not trolling as these forums are so full of negative and hapless minds but can't blame them for not winning as Guess work or Hypothesis don't work in betting. I still strongly believe that Betting has to be Data driven and Major leagues are not winnable in the long run especially NFL.
Your message has definitely pumped in some positivity into me and I can't thank you enough to uplift my self-esteem.
Will be in touch.. Cheers and as Always Good Luck and Happy Days !!..

The NFL being this hyper efficient league is the most nonsense thing. If NFL lines move more than ~1 point between open and close, its beatable. All the major leagues are beatable. I haven't paid a cent in vig overall in MLB Moneylines in a few years. Literally looking at the odds page destroys this argument every day. You have to bet early.

College sports are easier, yes.

Can be a data driven approach, that's my way, but many people do ok with Pinny lean/chasing steam/jumping injuries.

Stick with it. Keep good records, so you can go back and analyze next year. I like to start getting ready for a season a couple months ahead of time. Go back and look at what I bet, how did it go against the closing line. I look at, did I bet one team over and over again, try to figure out why. If it was good, then great. If it wasn't, what did I do wrong. So for example, this would be my process for baseball right now, after the super bowl.

[coolguy73739]

your words are powerful and it seems you know the ups and downs. I think you have a good chance at success. as you know now it is a very difficult game to beat. keep up research and let us know if you have some confidence in your revised system. don't forget a hitter fails 7 times out of 10, a sports bettor fails often also hopefully not 70% of the time.

hang in.

Thanks!!.. will be putting up my PAPER PLAYS whenever they are ready .. got rid of some unwanted data and added some.. will post soon..

[coolguy73739]

The NFL being this hyper efficient league is the most nonsense thing. If NFL lines move more than ~1 point between open and close, its beatable. All the major leagues are beatable. I haven't paid a cent in vig overall in MLB Moneylines in a few years. Literally looking at the odds page destroys this argument every day. You have to bet early.

College sports are easier, yes.

Can be a data driven approach, that's my way, but many people do ok with Pinny lean/chasing steam/jumping injuries.

Stick with it. Keep good records, so you can go back and analyze next year. I like to start getting ready for a season a couple months ahead of time. Go back and look at what I bet, how did it go against the closing line. I look at, did I bet one team over and over again, try to figure out why. If it was good, then great. If it wasn't, what did I do wrong. So for example, this would be my process for baseball right now, after the super bowl.

Thanks for your valuable insight!!.. If you can beat NFL market consistently over a period of time, you are GOD imo.. I know NFL is over hyped but at the same time lines are invariably very sharp where even books have no clue which way the game will go finally..
You must be doing incredibly astonishing to beat that market with just 1 point of line variable.. Hats off !!
I am fully focused on Data driven Capping..
Good Luck !!

[coolguy73739]

Followings are my PAPER PLAY for Spread and Totals. Will post for a few days and then will see how it goes..

Saint louis +2
Austin Peay O122.5
Kansas State U135
Virginia U118.5
Drexel O149.5
Delaware O147.5/James Mad +6
S Utah O156.5/ S Utah +1.5
W Kentucky O138.5/ W Kentucky -12
Oregon U134.5 / Washington St +4.5
Lehigh O145.5
Vermont -11.5
NC central +1.5
Morgan st O148.5
Florida a&m +5
Grambling st O143.5/ Grambling st +5
Bethune cook +6.5
Southern U +2.5
Alabama State O145

[coolguy73739]

Followings are my PAPER PLAY for Spread and Totals. Will post for a few days and then will see how it goes..

Saint louis +2 L
Austin Peay O122.5 L
Kansas State U135 L
Virginia U118.5 W
Drexel O149.5 W
Delaware O147.5/James Mad +6 L/L
S Utah O156.5/ S Utah +1.5 W/L
W Kentucky O138.5/ W Kentucky -12 W/L
Oregon U134.5 / Washington St +4.5 W/W
Lehigh O145.5 W
Vermont -11.5 L
NC central +1.5 W
Morgan st O148.5 L
Florida a&m +5 L
Grambling st O143.5/ Grambling st +5 L/W
Bethune cook +6.5 L
Southern U +2.5 W
Alabama State O145 W

Out of 23 games tested.. Result W/L : 11/12.. Disappointing ..

[coolguy73739]

One more PAPER PLAY.. Could be the last one hopefully..

Akron -8
Miami Oh +11
Tulane U130.5
Wake Forest +11
N Iowa O145.5
Minnesota +13
Wyoming -4.5
Iowa State +4 and Game U128
Kentucky Game U140
San Jose St +15
Liberty -9

[coolguy73739]

5-7

[coolguy73739]

Refined my System.. playing following games:

Fairfield +11.5
Quinnipiac +5.5
SMU +3