How many Games per day shall I bet to minimize VARIANCE

[d2bets]

wait, maybe I am misunderstanding this method. I really didn't pay too much attention until l read part of this. let me give an example. are you saying if a total increases from 156 to 158.5 you should play the 158.5 over? that is the line change method I am familiar with--or do I have this completely wrong?

No. If the line moves from 156 to 158.5, I want to have the O156 or even O156.5. I would pass on the O158.5.

If the Pinny/Cris close is 158.5, I am not going to bet 158.5 either way. I'd bet O157 or better. Or I'd bet U160 or better.

[dante1]

forgive me if I have this all messed up but a short paragraph on exactly what you guys are attempting would be helpful. I through my experimenting years have tried both.

thanks

[dante1]

No. If the line moves from 156 to 158.5, I want to have the O156 or even O156.5. I would pass on the O158.5.

If the Pinny/Cris close is 158.5, I am not going to bet 158.5 either way. I'd bet O157 or better. Or I'd bet U160 or better.

gotcha so you take the better line for possibilities.

[dante1]

so what are the mechanics of taking the 156 which is the better line. you don't get to see the better line change until it happens (obviously) now the line is 158.5 and you pass. so how do you bet the 156 now that it is gone.

[dante1]

unless you are watching line changes every second of every day before the game. then if possible you may find a slow moving out. Is that it? Or am I missing something?

[coolguy73739]

This is where your model number comes handy.. 156 or 158.5, I will bet both over as long as my model predicting 163 (JUST AN EXAMPLE) points on this game.. that's why I never believed in CLV. If line within your RANGE, YOU BET..

[dante1]

I am thinking maybe some of you are working with advanced technologies that alert you when a line changes more than 1 or something like that. if that is the case you guys must be spending 5 or 6 hours (at least) following and getting these line changes. then I would assume now matter how quickly you act you miss a lot. another alternative might be to have a local but most of them have hours. they quit at noon for baskets. come back at four and then usually at 7.

this seems like a ton of work unless again I am missing something obvious.

[dante1]

This is where your model number comes handy.. 156 or 158.5, I will bet both over as long as my model predicting 163 (JUST AN EXAMPLE) points on this game.. that's why I never believed in CLV. If line within your RANGE, YOU BET..

this makes more sense, I missed the model part. okay thanks.

I still make the same assertion if you bet a ton of games you will lose in the long run. I hope I am wrong because I cheer for the player over the book all the time, even if I had words with that particular player.

my humble advise before playing real money on up to 20 games a day test it. even if you have to test if for an entire year. listen playing 20 games will hurt you if you go on a bad streak even if you are only wagering $20 or $25. I am speaking from experience watching hundreds of players for decades.

maybe I am wrong, but I don't think so. lol

[dante1]

last comment from me. you do know when a line changes drastically lets say over 3 points in college baskets. it changes for a reason obviously. and that reason is always a huge ton of action being placed on a specific team. now if the line increases 3 points on the over that means one of two things. maybe one of three. first, a bunch of random action and that is rare, second, a serious move by a gambling syndicate (if they really exist), or third and this is just as rare a tout who is having a terrific year or decade or longer and he/she personally moves the line when he gives out his picks. that is so rare because touts are so full of shit. generally.

well whatever good luck to all.

[d2bets]

unless you are watching line changes every second of every day before the game. then if possible you may find a slow moving out. Is that it? Or am I missing something?

Yep. Keep an eye out and learn to read the tea leaves.

Personally, I'm more focused on live/halftimes these days, so that I don't have to stare at the the screen all day. But the general idea is the same.

[coolguy73739]

I have been losing for long playing limited number of games even though I had edges on games I left on the table.
Playing 17 games was unimaginable till last year for me. I'm working on this new plan. Hope it works. Thanks for your concern.

[dante1]

I am sorry. I just had another thought. if you are producing a line before the line comes out, or you are producing a line for every game before you know the line, well I think that is a legit method to cap. I did the same for a while but it became so much work because you need so much detail.

true story, when I was booking I would attempt to produce lines prematurely. I got so expert in the NFL I was almost always within 1 point of the actual line. most of the time within .5 of the actual line. that is relatively easy in the nfl. not so in college baskets and college foot because so many variables. but it is fun. so you produce that line and if the line coming out is different you make a play. maybe you guys are doing something like this. if so, I get it. but still don't play 20 to 30 games a day

[dante1]

and then again you can use a good source of power ratings which includes home or away and other variables. often these charts will give you a line very close to the actual line.

[coolguy73739]

I HV lot to say about betting and my model in general but first I need to win on my picks or its premature to talk..
I'm very much hopeful, it will all work out good.. Let's wait till GAME TIME.. !!

[d2bets]

I HV lot to say about betting and my model in general but first I need to win on my picks or its premature to talk..
I'm very much hopeful, it will all work out good.. Let's wait till GAME TIME.. !!

Can you backtest your model?

What leads you to believe your model produces a more accurate line?

[dante1]

I HV lot to say about betting and my model in general but first I need to win on my picks or its premature to talk..
I'm very much hopeful, it will all work out good.. Let's wait till GAME TIME.. !!

best luck, let us know.

[Optional]

Reducing variance also means reducing your chances of big winning weeks, as well as avoiding big losing ones.

[coolguy73739]

Reducing variance also means reducing your chances of big winning weeks, as well as avoiding big losing ones.

Can you please elaborate on that?

[coolguy73739]

thanks for your encouraging words d2bets, really appreciate although i am very impatient and cannot sustain these intermittent losses for long. Switched to totals for the time being and again getting into +ve territory. Totals have less variables in my opinion and are less stressful, i don't feel jittery or anxious with total bets but i might be wrong. Playing following games, playing more due to edge on these games and less expected variance.
I can post my picks for some days just to see how it goes if no one has an issue posting picks in this forum.
Umkc o140.5 w
penn state o138 w
mercer o138 l
drexel o139.5 l
austin peay u137 w
duke o143.5 l
morehead st o137 l
s utah u147.5 w
wyoming o146 w
n mexico u136 w hopefully, game is still on.
Colgate o138 l
liberty o137 l
howard u150.5 w
alcorn st u138 l
jackson st u131.5 l
alabama st u134.5 w
norfolk st u137 p

i never waited till close up time but now will bet just before game start time to check closing lines fitting exactly as expected.
Out of these 17 games, i am expecting to click at least 10-11 games to be in the range of 12-22% roi.. Thanks..

8-8-1.. Not the kind of results i expected.. There's always next day..

[coolguy73739]

Can you backtest your model?

What leads you to believe your model produces a more accurate line?

My model is not about the Line but a Range of numbers.
I will explain with one of the games that I won today.
UMKC-W ILLINOIS.. LINE: 143.0, My Range: 143.8 - 151.7 based on Pace and OR/DR. There are 2 more ways I arrive at the totals.
2nd Average based on Average FGA and OR/DR: 147.2; Third average is based on Defense and TS%: 149.2.

TBH, Some of the games I lost today, I ignored my Third Average and paid the price. Will be careful from now on.. Thanks..

[Optional]

Can you please elaborate on that?

Lowering your chances of losing big money also lowers your chances of winning big money basically.

But if you have a profitable model and plan to grind, you probably would still prefer it that way.

[coolguy73739]

Lowering your chances of losing big money also lowers your chances of winning big money basically.

But if you have a profitable model and plan to grind, you probably would still prefer it that way.

Thanks Opti.. I would still want to play all games having EDGE ( even though I still find edge a complicated term). Not sure whether by playing 15-20 games, it actually brings down the Variance.

[d2bets]

Thanks Opti.. I would still want to play all games having EDGE ( even though I still find edge a complicated term). Not sure whether by playing 15-20 games, it actually brings down the Variance.

Of course it does. The more results you have the less variance. So if on the year you make 5,000 plays you will have less variance than if you make 500. Obvious, right? This isn't controversial. We call this the long-run, right?

And if your model is accurate, then you want to bet every time you have an edge that beats the juice. You could bet size if that's an issue in terms of limits and bankroll, but certainly you bet a 54% and you bet a 60% edge. I don't think that much about bet sizing because it's generally determined by my book's limits.

[coolguy73739]

Ball State o145.5
Rutgers u131.5
kent state u138
richmond u138
nebraska o144.5
tulsa u137
uc riverside u128.5
fresno st u126

Playing my THE BEST picks to cut down on variance.. following a reverse technique.. hoping to get 5-6 correct out of 8... Lets see..

[d2bets]

Ball State o145.5
Rutgers u131.5
kent state u138
richmond u138
nebraska o144.5
tulsa u137
uc riverside u128.5
fresno st u126

Playing my THE BEST picks to cut down on variance.. following a reverse technique.. hoping to get 5-6 correct out of 8... Lets see..

Majority of those have seen line moves against you. That's not good.

If you are doing a good job tracking results, I want you to also track the closing line vs. the line that you wagered. If you are regularly getting the worst of the number, quite simply you are not going to win. I know you think you're smarter than everyone else, but in the nicest way possible I can assure that you are not. I mean no offense by it, really. I'm not either.

[coolguy73739]

Majority of those have seen line moves against you. That's not good.

If you are doing a good job tracking results, I want you to also track the closing line vs. the line that you wagered. If you are regularly getting the worst of the number, quite simply you are not going to win. I know you think you're smarter than everyone else, but in the nicest way possible I can assure that you are not. I mean no offense by it, really. I'm not either.

Lets track the numbers and results, that's the whole point of posting these games. As I mentioned earlier many times, I never believed in CLV if your numbers are good. Books are always keeping a MARGIN of points with them for certain games they are sure of. The case in point is the one I explained in earlier post about yesterday's UMKC game.. Whether they moved the Line to 145 or 141 from 143, I would have still played OVER because I have a margin of 4-5 points ( my number was around 147-148). I am definitely not thinking myself to be smarter, in fact always feeling low esteemed due to not having enough confidence in my numbers. But this season has brought some positivity and ray of hopes and I am looking forward to refine my betting techniques..

[d2bets]

Lets track the numbers and results, that's the whole point of posting these games. As I mentioned earlier many times, I never believed in CLV if your numbers are good. Books are always keeping a MARGIN of points with them for certain games they are sure of. The case in point is the one I explained in earlier post about yesterday's UMKC game.. Whether they moved the Line to 145 or 141 from 143, I would have still played OVER because I have a margin of 4-5 points ( my number was around 147-148). I am definitely not thinking myself to be smarter, in fact always feeling low esteemed due to not having enough confidence in my numbers. But this season has brought some positivity and ray of hopes and I am looking forward to refine my betting techniques..

You can never go wrong with more data. What if you had the data and you dove in and you found that you won on the subset where the line moved in your favor but you lost on the subset where the line moved against you? Would you act on that data in any way?

[coolguy73739]

You can never go wrong with more data. What if you had the data and you dove in and you found that you won on the subset where the line moved in your favor but you lost on the subset where the line moved against you? Would you act on that data in any way?

I would always believe in Data than Line movement. Data is GOD.. Without my Model and Data I will be CLUELESS AND CANNOT BET..

[coolguy73739]

Playing Finland Basketball game right now.. KTP-- Salon Over 172.5.. Half time score 57-58.
Never checked CLV, Line movement nothing. Purely playing on the basis of DATA and most likely will win.. Another 58 points to score in second half.. My style of betting is totally unconventional..

[coolguy73739]

Ball State o145.5 W
Rutgers u131.5 L
kent state u138 L believe it or not, it was typo, I played Over (can show my betting card) for this but I will take it as loss.
richmond u138 W
nebraska o144.5 W
tulsa u137 W
uc riverside u128.5 W
fresno st u126 W

Playing my THE BEST picks to cut down on variance.. following a reverse technique.. hoping to get 5-6 correct out of 8... Lets see..

6-2.. Now I am thoroughly confused as to play less or more games to avoid VARIANCE..

[d2bets]

6-2.. Now I am thoroughly confused as to play less or more games to avoid VARIANCE..

There is nothing to be confused about. Good or bad, more results = less variance. This is just math.

[coolguy73739]

Thanks..Are you saying more results meaning i should play more games?
I have decided to keep as many games as i m comfortable with.. meaning more games based on my MARGIN..
YOU MIND ME ASKING HOW WAS YOUR DAY IN TERMS OF WINNING?

[d2bets]

Thanks..Are you saying more results meaning i should play more games?
I have decided to keep as many games as i m comfortable with.. meaning more games based on my MARGIN..
YOU MIND ME ASKING HOW WAS YOUR DAY IN TERMS OF WINNING?

You should make any and every wager in which you have an edge greater the juice. That's it. Whether that's 0, 5, or 100. And of course, the more different things you wager on, the less variance and the faster you will get to your true result.

Yesterday? Basically broke eve, slightly up. But the last few weeks have been very good, even though I had 2 very bad days mixed in. It happens. Unavoidable. You cannot win every day. That's what variance is all about. But you just chart your results over time and you'll see where you are headed.

And be realistic. You are not going to hit on 65% of your -110 bets. You simply won't. Period and end of story. Pretty safe to say that you won't hit 60% if you are betting market plays either. Shoot for 55-56%, multiply your volume and then you'll know what you expect to win.

If you wager $110/100 and you make 10 bets per day, be realistic. That's $55/day profit. If you do that every single day for the year you'll make about 20k.

But now let's make that 20 bets of $550/500 each every day. Now you're making $200k.

Better yet, try to get down 10x that and make 20x as much.

Of course it's not entirely scalable because of limits.

If you're not betting limits, then you either don't have the edge you think or you're leaving a lot of money on the table.

[BeatTheJerk]

You should make any and every wager in which you have an edge greater the juice. That's it. Whether that's 0, 5, or 100. And of course, the more different things you wager on, the less variance and the faster you will get to your true result.

Yesterday? Basically broke eve, slightly up. But the last few weeks have been very good, even though I had 2 very bad days mixed in. It happens. Unavoidable. You cannot win every day. That's what variance is all about. But you just chart your results over time and you'll see where you are headed.

And be realistic. You are not going to hit on 65% of your -110 bets. You simply won't. Period and end of story. Pretty safe to say that you won't hit 60% if you are betting market plays either. Shoot for 55-56%, multiply your volume and then you'll know what you expect to win.

If you wager $110/100 and you make 10 bets per day, be realistic. That's $55/day profit. If you do that every single day for the year you'll make about 20k.

But now let's make that 20 bets of $550/500 each every day. Now you're making $200k.

Better yet, try to get down 10x that and make 20x as much.

Of course it's not entirely scalable because of limits.

If you're not betting limits, then you either don't have the edge you think or you're leaving a lot of money on the table.

How long have you been successful now at this style of betting ? I know you haven’t always bet this way early on in your gambling career.

[coolguy73739]

TBH This season has been a recreational experiment for me. Bet size is 50-100..if things work out, Sky is truly the limit I can bet in future.
I feel like I'm learning some fine techniques of betting this season..
Thanks for sharing your thoughts..And let's make it happen.. Good luck with your betting!! Cheers!!