Simple MLB system

[nash13]

Apr 08, 2018

box

Sun

home

Giants

Ty Blach - L

Dodgers

Clayton Kershaw - L

185

7.0

Apr 08, 2018

box

Sun

home

Phillies

Jake Arrieta - R

Marlins

Trevor Richards - R

-180

7.5

Apr 08, 2018

box

Sun

home

Pirates

Jameson Taillon - R

Reds

Tyler Mahle - R

-142

7.5

today 3 games. but it will be interesting to see how the lines change.

[nash13]

2-1 yesterday

[danshan11]

Dont bet it on Mondays !! LOL, you guys are not serious with this thing are you, you got to be kidding me, there is zero logic behind it.

this is like saying the roulette wheel will be black because last time it was red.

there is zero connection between the two games

[nash13]

Dont bet it on Mondays !! LOL, you guys are not serious with this thing are you, you got to be kidding me, there is zero logic behind it

the main point for me: why are the bookies are lowering the odds compared to the game before?
and if so, how does the market react.common mistake in betting: you aren't beating other players or the bookies, you are playing the market odds.
so if the lower odds are not connected to "sports" related reasons, just market related, there might be reasons to bet them.
but on the other hand it might be complete trash.
there is no harm in trying.

[nash13]

http://killersports.com/mlb/query?su=1&ou=1&sdql=0.5+%3C%3D+p%3Atotal+-+total+%3C%3D+1+and+season+%3D+2018&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

same problem as days before: in the morning phillies/marlins game was included in the results.
now in retrospective they were not.

[danshan11]

http://killersports.com/mlb/query?su...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
same problem as days before: in the morning phillies/marlins game was included in the results.
now in retrospective they were not.

any SDQL system that involves factors that update later, can give you very bad results.

[Bsims]

the main point for me: why are the bookies are lowering the odds compared to the game before?

Different pitchers.

[nash13]

4-2 yesterday

[nash13]

88-62 so far this year (that's what the DB says)
+21.8 units

[nash13]

195-196 (-0.09, 49.9%)	avg line: -113.6 / -113.7	on / against: -$1,868 / -$1,198	ROI: -3.7% / -2.4%
155-219-17 (0.18, 41.4%)	avg total: 8.1	over / under: -$8,093 / +$5,234	ROI: -18.8% / +12.1%

219-155 +52 Units in the DB, i could not track the validity of the data. if anyone has changing lines data from other resources, i would be glad to cross check.

[Barrakuda]

I showed you that the data is completely corrupt. The fact that you still using it is puzzling at best.

[Bsims]

No system is better than the data fed in (GIGO-garbage in garbage out). I spend a lot of effort trying to build past history files for back testing purposes. I have offered to share some of this data. I would suggest you back test with the 2017 data file that I provided a link to in my blog post on May 9th. Here is the link.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WWOoysxAZniZgog5UuZ5at8vJsM_73C4/view?usp=sharing

[The_Extremist]

I think you're better of taking the total difference off and by just sticking to betting the same series to maximize profit..just go with

p:total>total and SG>1 and season=2018 and A

if you look at previous years

(1>=p:total -total>=.5),(p:total>total) and SG >1 and season>2009 and A

its much for profitable. I even played with the difference being as high as 2.5 and still it was limiting the profits. I also tried to limit the total between 10.5>total>7.5 which has been great for this year but then it killed the previous years. The reason why I think not using the total difference works is because the run productions have increased and so have the totals so you can't compare 1 year to the next. That's why just saying previous total is less than current total works better.

so just look for games where the total is lower than the previous days total and playing the same opponent after game 1. So only bet games 2,3 and 4

[nash13]

I think you're better of taking the total difference off and by just sticking to betting the same series to maximize profit..just go with

p:total>total and SG>1 and season=2018 and A

if you look at previous years

(1>=p:total -total>=.5),(p:total>total) and SG >1 and season>2009 and A

its much for profitable. I even played with the difference being as high as 2.5 and still it was limiting the profits. I also tried to limit the total between 10.5>total>7.5 which has been great for this year but then it killed the previous years. The reason why I think not using the total difference works is because the run productions have increased and so have the totals so you can't compare 1 year to the next. That's why just saying previous total is less than current total works better.

so just look for games where the total is lower than the previous days total and playing the same opponent after game 1. So only bet games 2,3 and 4

332-341 (-0.11, 49.3%) avg line: -105.8 / -108.3 on / against: -$2,346 / -$843 ROI: -2.7% / -1.0% 335-338 (-0.08, 49.8%) avg line: -112.1 / -112.5 on / against: -$3,048 / -$2,133 ROI: -3.5% / -2.5% 259-380-34 (-0.18, 40.5%) avg total: 8.2 over / under: -$15,387 / +$10,191 ROI: -20.7% / +13.8%

this is the record for this season, i wish the people from killersports would show their data resources. so i could check if the data is valid or not. the lines you may take are heavily depending on the bookie.

[tsty]

Have you ever asked yourself why? It could just be variance..

[tsty]

Dont bet it on Mondays !! LOL, you guys are not serious with this thing are you, you got to be kidding me, there is zero logic behind it.

this is like saying the roulette wheel will be black because last time it was red.

there is zero connection between the two games

this is how all "system" bettors think lol

they find outliers in past results and think it's magic

It's like those idiots who bet on a team to after they lose 3 in a row

"this team never loses 3 games in a row" "look at past results hurr durr"

What's funny is that if you followed that logic then you should be betting everything you have on that next match since it has never happened before..

[nash13]

You have to make a difference between what teams are doing and what the market is doing.
If you bet on games depending on teams performance in the past, then you are looking for variance, but if you look at the other side of the medal, the market movement, you may find value.

[danshan11]

You have to make a difference between what teams are doing and what the market is doing.
If you bet on games depending on teams performance in the past, then you are looking for variance, but if you look at the other side of the medal, the market movement, you may find value.

give me a scenario where this "system" shows an edge?

[keel44]

This system has worked the past 9 years because the bulpen has not been accurately accounted for while the use of the bulpen and the effectiveness has increased.

The totals are primarily based on starting pitchers. When the total drops in the next game means that the starting pitchers are better than the previous game and you couple that with a specialized bulpen, your going to get more unders.

As for the previous game being a higher total, it is because the starters are NOT as good, which causes midde relief pitchers to be used and they are trash. So the drop in the total is not being dropped enough because the books are under-valueing the best of the bulpen especialy with the increase in strikeouts.

[danshan11]

This system has worked the past 9 years because the bulpen has not been accurately accounted for while the use of the bulpen and the effectiveness has increased.

The totals are primarily based on starting pitchers. When the total drops in the next game means that the starting pitchers are better than the previous game and you couple that with a specialized bulpen, your going to get more unders.

As for the previous game being a higher total, it is because the starters are NOT as good, which causes midde relief pitchers to be used and they are trash. So the drop in the total is not being dropped enough because the books are under-valueing the best of the bulpen especialy with the increase in strikeouts.

so you are saying that the first game is changing the probabilities of the next game?

[keel44]

It could very easily. People are people. Wouldn't you want to bounce back if you struggled or maybe you gain some confidence. If you think about it, there are multiple motivations going on all the time. You can't quantify it, but I was just speculating as what is causing the success of this system.

[Bsims]

I've completed my analysis of this system using 8 seasons of data. I think there are a couple of lessons here.

Description	Won	Lost	W-L	Bet	Net	Ret/$
All games	4,061	4,022	39	$890,098	-$33,914	$0.962
Same Opponents	2,210	2,132	78	$477,481	-$11,977	$0.975
Different Opponents	1,851	1,890	-39	412,617	-21,937	$0.947

The system produced 39 more wins than losses over 8,083 games. But when $100 is laid on each game, there was a net loss of $33,914. The return was $0.962 per dollar wagered. You must measure the value of a system by the return per dollar wagered.

However when you limit the wagers to games with the same opponents as the prior game, the results improve but are still negative.

I decided to focus on these games and look at the results by how much lower today's total is than the prior game. Here are the results.

Description	Won	Lost	W-L	Bet	Net	Ret/$
Total 0.5 less than prior	1,263	1,168	95	$267,161	-$1,116	$0.996
Total 1.0 less than prior	610	607	3	$134,002	-$5,598	$0.958
Total 1.5 less than prior	213	246	-33	$50,350	-$5,455	$0.892
Total 2.0 less than prior	88	72	16	$17,730	$882	$1.050
More than 2.0	36	39	-3	$8,238	-$690	$0.916

This resulted in nothing of interest. Finally I looked at the results by year .

Description	Won	Lost	W-L	Bet	Net	Ret/$
Year 2010	303	293	10	$65,600	-$1,705	$0.974
Year 2011	275	277	-2	$60,480	-$2,740	$0.955
Year 2012	269	251	18	$57,495	-$615	$0.989
Year 2013	290	236	54	$57,680	$3,325	$1.058
Year 2014	285	252	33	$59,149	$1,082	$1.018
Year 2015	246	277	-31	$57,659	-$5,928	$0.897
Year 2016	263	275	-12	$59,170	-$3,764	$0.936
Year 2017	279	271	8	$60,248	-$1,632	$0.973

Here is a very interesting lesson. Two of the eight years actually show a profit, 2013 and 2014. Imagine the poor soul who thought he had found this system in early 2013. He makes good money for two years then decides to put some serious money in for 2015, only to lose his ass.

The final lesson is this. If there isn't any logic behind a system, it's probably worthless.

I back tested this system a couple of months ago using real lines and bets. It is not a winning system.

[danshan11]

the key to what you said is quantifying. You got to be able to quantify something to adjust for it and bet for it if you cannot you are gambling not playing with an edge.

[danshan11]

why does the system not work on Mondays?

[keel44]

the key to what you said is quantifying. You got to be able to quantify something to adjust for it and bet for it if you cannot you are gambling not playing with an edge.

Agree totally. To find value in a line you must be able to pick out erroneous assumptions made by the public in accordance with the betting lines made available.

[juicername]

why does the system not work on Mondays?

Since Monday's are "always" the first game of a series that day won't generate any plays.

[danshan11]

well on the SDQL in this thread if you add MOndays the system is a failure, why? you want met to tell you why its called long variance, even if it has 20000 plays it is just an anomoly. each game is independent of each other and if last games total was 9 that has nothing to do with what will happen in this game, nothing. You need to go use a simulator and put in 2000 games you will see about 8 or 9 out 10 times one side or the other will be very profitable over 2000 games but in reality there is no edge.

[nash13]

i think people have to make a difference between market situations and sports related situations to bet. if you can predict the market, you are a good analyst, if you can predict the sport, you are a different type of bettor.
the change in lines may have different reasons, not everything is sports related.

[nash13]

i can not emphasize it any more as i did before, this is purley based on killersports data, if their data is corrupt it is not my fault.

[nash13]

as of right now the data is showing 130 units profits for 2018.

[danshan11]

what is the search for this data , share the sdql or the link if you would

[Biff41]

what is the rationale of why its +EV?

Just to throw this out, the main reason over under would change is when teams are putting in top pichers or scrub pitchers. If someone like Kershw is starting against a quality opponent the sharpies will perceive a low scoring game whether it happens or not. See Keel 44 comments.

[Slipknot26]

NHL chase system update , I know this was MLB but NHL has been the most profit wise so far each year .
This year is doing very well , so far .
2018 - ( 222-6 / +330 )
2019 - ( 97-0 / +334 )

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1D6qkIgajh2-783o0UKsIJt2qowM48IswkLHnGzLp5m0/edit?usp=drivesdk

[oilcountry99]

NHL chase system update , I know this was MLB but NHL has been the most profit wise so far each year .
This year is doing very well , so far .
2018 - ( 222-6 / +330 )
2019 - ( 97-0 / +334 )

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...t?usp=drivesdk

Slip, can you give a brief synopsis of what your system is...thanks and continued success to you!

[Slipknot26]

Top teir team - 4 consecutive home games vs specific teams
Bottom teir teams - 4 consecutive away games vs specific teams
Unit - Based off each individual chase probability .
Example :
Tampa 4 @ home vs. Preds , Jets , Bruins then Leafs . A lower unit play
Tampa 4 @ home vs. Sens , Wings , Rangers , Kings . A higher unit play .
Some of the teams won't lose 9 games at home all year , hard pressed seeing them losing 4 straight or some teams winning 4 straight on the road .
Thank you , hopefully I can continue to win , goal was +500 units this year .