Simple MLB system

[nash13]

Does baseball have the most volatile totals of the 4 major sports?

I am not sure, but due to the fact that we are seeing a development in increasing runs per season

4.82	season = 2004
4.59	season = 2005
4.84	season = 2006
4.80	season = 2007
4.65	season = 2008
4.61	season = 2009
4.37	season = 2010
4.29	season = 2011
4.31	season = 2012
4.16	season = 2013
4.06	season = 2014
4.25	season = 2015
4.47	season = 2016
4.64	season = 2017
-	season = 2018

i guess after rule changes scoring dropped a lot and now everyone is adapting to these.

[bozeman]

If the total line in the current game is lower by 0.5 or 1 than the previous one take the UNDER.
2861-2412
with 260 Units Profit in the last 4 years.
if you know any filters to redefine let me know.

oh jesus - another so called system - with no reason behind it. when do people stop believing this is a long run money? did u track another 4 years before that? What about another 4 years prior?

[bozeman]

guys dont get me wrong but fading brandon lang gives a better return than this hypothetical bookie knowledge gig. Or subscribing for pimikes baseball.

[nash13]

oh jesus - another so called system - with no reason behind it. when do people stop believing this is a long run money? did u track another 4 years before that? What about another 4 years prior?

497	235-241-21 (0.26, 49.4%)	8.7	-$3,010	-$1,750	season = 2004
506	224-249-33 (0.19, 47.4%)	8.6	-$4,400	-$245	season = 2005
520	248-252-20 (0.33, 49.6%)	8.8	-$2,760	-$2,325	season = 2006
558	259-268-31 (0.48, 49.1%)	8.8	-$4,500	-$1,885	season = 2007
585	271-292-22 (0.40, 48.1%)	8.5	-$4,675	-$890	season = 2008
566	247-295-24 (0.17, 45.6%)	8.5	-$7,600	+$2,560	season = 2009
530	228-273-29 (0.28, 45.5%)	8.1	-$7,115	+$2,150	season = 2010
535	252-251-32 (0.19, 50.1%)	7.8	-$2,385	-$2,640	season = 2011
560	249-287-24 (0.38, 46.5%)	7.8	-$6,440	+$1,380	season = 2012
569	228-316-25 (0.01, 41.9%)	7.6	-$12,030	+$6,760	season = 2013
541	221-287-33 (0.01, 43.5%)	7.4	-$9,380	+$4,720	season = 2014
546	241-275-30 (0.26, 46.7%)	7.4	-$6,571	+$1,400	season = 2015
548	241-286-21 (0.09, 45.7%)	8.0	-$7,348	+$2,290	season = 2016
572	237-306-29 (0.00, 43.6%)	8.6	-$9,562	+$5,762	season = 2017

8 out of last 9 seasons profit, yes i know this may be backfitting but 9 years running and 8 with profit is something you can not ignore. no one is telling you to bet it blindly, but if there is an abnormality in the odds why not try to benefit?

[nash13]

1st week 13-7 right now up 5 units.

Angels /Indians Under 7 (2U) Won
Astros/Orioles Under 8.5 (2U) Won
Athletics/Rangers Under 8.5 (2U)
Brewers/Cardinals Under 9 (2U)
Giants/Mariners Under 7.5 (2U) Lost

were today's selections.

[A4K]

[nash13]

Angels /Indians Under 7 (2U) Won
Astros/Orioles Under 8.5 (2U) Won
Athletics/Rangers Under 8.5 (2U) Won
Brewers/Cardinals Under 9 (2U) Won
Giants/Mariners Under 7.5 (2U) Lost

17-8
+ 9 units STD

[nash13]

Apr 05, 2018

box

Thu

home

Cardinals

Adam Wainwright - R

Diamondbacks

Robbie Ray - L

-115

8.0

Apr 05, 2018

box

Thu

home

Nationals

Stephen Strasburg - R

Mets

Jacob deGrom - R

-147

7.0

Apr 05, 2018

box

Thu

home

Twins

Kyle Gibson - R

Mariners

James Paxton - L

100

8.0

each 1 unit

[nash13]

2-1 yesterday
19-9 YTD
+10 Units

[5918mike]

Sounds interesting, following.

[nash13]

only downside to this is the killersports database itself. got to check twice if the lines are accurate. best thing to do:
get lines from yesterday and check manually with the common bookies.

[A4K]

any plays 2day?

[flyingcarbs]

497	235-241-21 (0.26, 49.4%)	8.7	-$3,010	-$1,750	season = 2004
506	224-249-33 (0.19, 47.4%)	8.6	-$4,400	-$245	season = 2005
520	248-252-20 (0.33, 49.6%)	8.8	-$2,760	-$2,325	season = 2006
558	259-268-31 (0.48, 49.1%)	8.8	-$4,500	-$1,885	season = 2007
585	271-292-22 (0.40, 48.1%)	8.5	-$4,675	-$890	season = 2008
566	247-295-24 (0.17, 45.6%)	8.5	-$7,600	+$2,560	season = 2009
530	228-273-29 (0.28, 45.5%)	8.1	-$7,115	+$2,150	season = 2010
535	252-251-32 (0.19, 50.1%)	7.8	-$2,385	-$2,640	season = 2011
560	249-287-24 (0.38, 46.5%)	7.8	-$6,440	+$1,380	season = 2012
569	228-316-25 (0.01, 41.9%)	7.6	-$12,030	+$6,760	season = 2013
541	221-287-33 (0.01, 43.5%)	7.4	-$9,380	+$4,720	season = 2014
546	241-275-30 (0.26, 46.7%)	7.4	-$6,571	+$1,400	season = 2015
548	241-286-21 (0.09, 45.7%)	8.0	-$7,348	+$2,290	season = 2016
572	237-306-29 (0.00, 43.6%)	8.6	-$9,562	+$5,762	season = 2017

8 out of last 9 seasons profit, yes i know this may be backfitting but 9 years running and 8 with profit is something you can not ignore. no one is telling you to bet it blindly, but if there is an abnormality in the odds why not try to benefit?

I know people will trash on your system, however this is the ideal way to gamble IMO. You see a trend and you JUMP on it, dont play against it, play with it. If the trend ends, go find another, and continue tracking this until another trend starts. That being said, are you also tracking average total lines? Are the total lines this year higher than last?

[danshan11]

what is the rationale of why its +EV?

[danshan11]

the system is really good on Fridays LOL but sucks in April, whenever you create these without a good why it works always check month day season to see how it looks and quickly you usually can see the flaw with these sdql rules
A does it make sense, why does it work, why does it beat the market
B can it change , make sure it cant change based on tomorrows results
C verify it can be bet because SDQL is always putting up bad lines and bad totals

[Bsims]

If different opponents from previous games, does total have to be below both previous totals?

nash13, your answer was only 1 is needed. What if the other team's total is higher than their previous game?

I too am skeptical about this system. It looks to me that you have not considered the odds in computing your net. This could be a significant factor.

However, I am now in a position to try this system on the past 8 seasons of data. I may have some more questions as I write the code.

[nash13]

it is something worth trying, not with huge money or anything, just something to consider.
i am aware that these kind of "systems" have their flaws, but i only follow one rule, the bookies will not try to predict winners or anything, they just want money earned vi vig no matter what. so you are not playing or beating the bookies, you are beating the market rules.

[nash13]

Today:
Brewers/Cubs U 8.5 (2U)
Royals/Indians U 7.5 (1U)
Pirates/Reds U 7.5 (2U)

[ScorpionSnow]

Following

[Slipknot26]

You'll get a bashing chasing but it works
NHL Chase I had this year ended at +330 units
Sure it's not for the ones who stress over a bet on a G4 for 1k or 2K to win $100 but it worked and you have to trust it .
Gambling isn't based off a Straight Up wager yet 98% don't think outside the box .
Best of luck to you

[Slipknot26]

Before anyone calls BS , starting tracking in here but also use Google sheets , so said anyone wanted to tail , send me email , get access to sheet .
Got 4 people , but people bet too much to chase , they don't understand if you have 6 open , 4 G4 , you better bet small , it can get expensive in a hurry .

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1I_dLmzp647rFp3ogeqXZL0LYMsNHGI-CMHY05w4mIr8/edit?usp=drivesdk

[aljack]

You'll get a bashing chasing but it works
NHL Chase I had this year ended at +330 units
Sure it's not for the ones who stress over a bet on a G4 for 1k or 2K to win $100 but it worked and you have to trust it .
Gambling isn't based off a Straight Up wager yet 98% don't think outside the box .
Best of luck to you

What is your system for the NHL chase ??

If you're telling me betting 1k to win $100 is a good move to make on a regular basis. You will be out of money fast. There is no possible way you can make money with that reasoning. Positive EV plays consistently, or nothing. What is the point in gambling if you are risking so much to win so little. The point is to be even keel and wager to win 90% or 110% of your wager. Anything with less than a 75% pay out is not worth playing.

No bashing. Just truth.

[aljack]

2-1 yesterday
19-9 YTD
+10 Units

I tracked this week and got no where near these kinds of numbers.

On one week of baseball I got:

38.89%

7

11

-4.09

Where are you getting 19-9, +10u ??

Post your plays daily so we can see and track ourselves because what I am seeing - based on the way you've explained this. This system has no value right now. I will continue tracking.

What plays are you on for Saturday ??

[nash13]

I tracked this week and got no where near these kinds of numbers.

On one week of baseball I got:

38.89%

7

11

-4.09

Where are you getting 19-9, +10u ??

Post your plays daily so we can see and track ourselves because what I am seeing - based on the way you've explained this. This system has no value right now. I will continue tracking.

What plays are you on for Saturday ??

26-24 (0.02, 52.0%) avg line: -105.9 / -106.4 on / against: +$110 / -$296 ROI: +1.8% / -4.7% 26-24 (0.08, 52.0%) avg line: -111.2 / -108.9 on / against: -$88 / -$473 ROI: -1.4% / -7.6% 22-28-0 (0.70, 44.0%) avg total: 8.2 over / under: -$850 / +$529 ROI: -15.1% / +9.8% problem here is: some games pop up later when the database is updated. So 28-22 inculdes double games in SG > 2 14-6 (2.30, 70.0%) avg line: -115.3 / 103.1 on / against: +$989 / -$1,064 ROI: +37.6% / -43.9% 13-7 (2.15, 65.0%) avg line: 105.8 / -125.7 on / against: +$740 / -$983 ROI: +31.8% / -36.8% 10-10-0 (1.45, 50.0%) avg total: 8.2 over / under: -$75 / -$28 ROI: -3.3% / -1.3% without double picks. 6-4 (0.10, 60.0%) avg line: -104.9 / -108.1 on / against: +$185 / -$221 ROI: +15.2% / -17.7% 6-4 (0.40, 60.0%) avg line: -116.0 / -104.5 on / against: +$155 / -$230 ROI: +11.7% / -18.5% 2-8-0 (-2.30, 20.0%) avg total: 8.2 over / under: -$700 / +$585 ROI: -62.2% / +54.4% so i took the games that popped up in the morning, if nd how the db is updated and when is a mystery. you can do it manually. so overall with retrospective analysis: 18-12 +5.6 Units. but for example 2 days ago, Nationals/Mets game was not included in the morning. So it is important to do it manually and take Killersports as reference to cross check.

[nash13]

mainly this is a theoretical thing to discuss anyway: do you wait for closing lines? do you take a bet ones the line drops and what to do when it switches back up.
example: line yesterday was 9.0 now it is 8.5 but closing line will switch back to 9.0
the db may show a no bet, but circumstances at the time of your bet may follow the rules stated above.
so i can only state that this is a test, no guarantee given.

i asked several times but kilelrsports guys don't want to share their resources for lines/odds anyway, so we/you should always be cautious with following trends based on their DB anyway.

[Gaze73]

Anything with less than a 75% pay out is not worth playing.

No bashing. Just truth.

You couldn't be more wrong. Risk 200 to win 100 is perfectly reasonable if the team has 70% chance to win, that's 10 bucks profit per pick long term. Even risk 1000 to win 100 is reasonable if a team has 95% chance to win. It's just harder to find that edge at lower odds.

[JKEGS81]

nice work

[Bsims]

I've completed my analysis of this system using 8 seasons of data. I think there are a couple of lessons here.

Description	Won	Lost	W-L	Bet	Net	Ret/$
All games	4,061	4,022	39	$890,098	-$33,914	$0.962
Same Opponents	2,210	2,132	78	$477,481	-$11,977	$0.975
Different Opponents	1,851	1,890	-39	412,617	-21,937	$0.947

The system produced 39 more wins than losses over 8,083 games. But when $100 is laid on each game, there was a net loss of $33,914. The return was $0.962 per dollar wagered. You must measure the value of a system by the return per dollar wagered.

However when you limit the wagers to games with the same opponents as the prior game, the results improve but are still negative.

I decided to focus on these games and look at the results by how much lower today's total is than the prior game. Here are the results.

Description	Won	Lost	W-L	Bet	Net	Ret/$
Total 0.5 less than prior	1,263	1,168	95	$267,161	-$1,116	$0.996
Total 1.0 less than prior	610	607	3	$134,002	-$5,598	$0.958
Total 1.5 less than prior	213	246	-33	$50,350	-$5,455	$0.892
Total 2.0 less than prior	88	72	16	$17,730	$882	$1.050
More than 2.0	36	39	-3	$8,238	-$690	$0.916

This resulted in nothing of interest. Finally I looked at the results by year .

Description	Won	Lost	W-L	Bet	Net	Ret/$
Year 2010	303	293	10	$65,600	-$1,705	$0.974
Year 2011	275	277	-2	$60,480	-$2,740	$0.955
Year 2012	269	251	18	$57,495	-$615	$0.989
Year 2013	290	236	54	$57,680	$3,325	$1.058
Year 2014	285	252	33	$59,149	$1,082	$1.018
Year 2015	246	277	-31	$57,659	-$5,928	$0.897
Year 2016	263	275	-12	$59,170	-$3,764	$0.936
Year 2017	279	271	8	$60,248	-$1,632	$0.973

Here is a very interesting lesson. Two of the eight years actually show a profit, 2013 and 2014. Imagine the poor soul who thought he had found this system in early 2013. He makes good money for two years then decides to put some serious money in for 2015, only to lose his ass.

The final lesson is this. If there isn't any logic behind a system, it's probably worthless.

[flyingcarbs]

I've completed my analysis of this system using 8 seasons of data. I think there are a couple of lessons here.

Description	Won	Lost	W-L	Bet	Net	Ret/$
All games	4,061	4,022	39	$890,098	-$33,914	$0.962
Same Opponents	2,210	2,132	78	$477,481	-$11,977	$0.975
Different Opponents	1,851	1,890	-39	412,617	-21,937	$0.947

The system produced 39 more wins than losses over 8,083 games. But when $100 is laid on each game, there was a net loss of $33,914. The return was $0.962 per dollar wagered. You must measure the value of a system by the return per dollar wagered.

However when you limit the wagers to games with the same opponents as the prior game, the results improve but are still negative.

I decided to focus on these games and look at the results by how much lower today's total is than the prior game. Here are the results.

Description	Won	Lost	W-L	Bet	Net	Ret/$
Total 0.5 less than prior	1,263	1,168	95	$267,161	-$1,116	$0.996
Total 1.0 less than prior	610	607	3	$134,002	-$5,598	$0.958
Total 1.5 less than prior	213	246	-33	$50,350	-$5,455	$0.892
Total 2.0 less than prior	88	72	16	$17,730	$882	$1.050
More than 2.0	36	39	-3	$8,238	-$690	$0.916

This resulted in nothing of interest. Finally I looked at the results by year .

Description	Won	Lost	W-L	Bet	Net	Ret/$
Year 2010	303	293	10	$65,600	-$1,705	$0.974
Year 2011	275	277	-2	$60,480	-$2,740	$0.955
Year 2012	269	251	18	$57,495	-$615	$0.989
Year 2013	290	236	54	$57,680	$3,325	$1.058
Year 2014	285	252	33	$59,149	$1,082	$1.018
Year 2015	246	277	-31	$57,659	-$5,928	$0.897
Year 2016	263	275	-12	$59,170	-$3,764	$0.936
Year 2017	279	271	8	$60,248	-$1,632	$0.973

Here is a very interesting lesson. Two of the eight years actually show a profit, 2013 and 2014. Imagine the poor soul who thought he had found this system in early 2013. He makes good money for two years then decides to put some serious money in for 2015, only to lose his ass.

The final lesson is this. If there isn't any logic behind a system, it's probably worthless.

Solid number crunching Bsims. It's rare to see useful posts on this site nowadays!

[nash13]

I've completed my analysis of this system using 8 seasons of data. I think there are a couple of lessons here.

Description	Won	Lost	W-L	Bet	Net	Ret/$
All games	4,061	4,022	39	$890,098	-$33,914	$0.962
Same Opponents	2,210	2,132	78	$477,481	-$11,977	$0.975
Different Opponents	1,851	1,890	-39	412,617	-21,937	$0.947

The system produced 39 more wins than losses over 8,083 games. But when $100 is laid on each game, there was a net loss of $33,914. The return was $0.962 per dollar wagered. You must measure the value of a system by the return per dollar wagered.

However when you limit the wagers to games with the same opponents as the prior game, the results improve but are still negative.

I decided to focus on these games and look at the results by how much lower today's total is than the prior game. Here are the results.

Description	Won	Lost	W-L	Bet	Net	Ret/$
Total 0.5 less than prior	1,263	1,168	95	$267,161	-$1,116	$0.996
Total 1.0 less than prior	610	607	3	$134,002	-$5,598	$0.958
Total 1.5 less than prior	213	246	-33	$50,350	-$5,455	$0.892
Total 2.0 less than prior	88	72	16	$17,730	$882	$1.050
More than 2.0	36	39	-3	$8,238	-$690	$0.916

This resulted in nothing of interest. Finally I looked at the results by year .

Description	Won	Lost	W-L	Bet	Net	Ret/$
Year 2010	303	293	10	$65,600	-$1,705	$0.974
Year 2011	275	277	-2	$60,480	-$2,740	$0.955
Year 2012	269	251	18	$57,495	-$615	$0.989
Year 2013	290	236	54	$57,680	$3,325	$1.058
Year 2014	285	252	33	$59,149	$1,082	$1.018
Year 2015	246	277	-31	$57,659	-$5,928	$0.897
Year 2016	263	275	-12	$59,170	-$3,764	$0.936
Year 2017	279	271	8	$60,248	-$1,632	$0.973

Here is a very interesting lesson. Two of the eight years actually show a profit, 2013 and 2014. Imagine the poor soul who thought he had found this system in early 2013. He makes good money for two years then decides to put some serious money in for 2015, only to lose his ass.

The final lesson is this. If there isn't any logic behind a system, it's probably worthless.

awesome work. this leads me to ask two questions. why is the killersports db showing profit? what are your numbers based on? closing odds? thanks for helping out

[Bsims]

awesome work. this leads me to ask two questions. why is the killersports db showing profit? what are your numbers based on? closing odds? thanks for helping out

I don't know anything about killersports. Is it possible that the results from them are only counting wins minus losses in their units. If they aren't including the odds, hence vig, their results will be seriously skewed.

The data I'm using is a file generated from the closing line in the SBR archives download. They do have opening lines, but I've never done any analysis with them.

I'm working on a project to generate another file which will consider closing lines from several sources. I'll then take the median of these and produce a file that I will be more comfortable with. I'm starting a blog with my analysis projects and will have this and other files available for anyone to download.

[Barrakuda]

If the total line in the current game is lower by 0.5 or 1 than the previous one take the UNDER.
2861-2412
with 260 Units Profit in the last 4 years.
if you know any filters to redefine let me know.

I'm unable to replicate this using Betlabs.

You can only check for specific totals, but for example, if two teams each had a previous total of 9 and the current total was 8-8.5, the Under went 185-194 (-4.1%) since 2014. For previous totals of 8.5 dropping to 7.5-8. it's 207-224 (-6%). For previous totals of 9.5 dropping to 8.5-9, it's 80-60 (+10.8%). For previous totals of 10 dropping to 9-9.5, it's 38-44 (-9.7%).

Either Betlabs' data is very corrupt, or there is nothing to see here.

[BestBoyMike]

Bsims - The final lesson is this. If there isn't any logic behind a system, it's probably worthless.

[BestBoyMike]

I don't know anything about killersports. Is it possible that the results from them are only counting wins minus losses in their units. If they aren't including the odds, hence vig, their results will be seriously skewed.

The data I'm using is a file generated from the closing line in the SBR archives download. They do have opening lines, but I've never done any analysis with them.

I'm working on a project to generate another file which will consider closing lines from several sources. I'll then take the median of these and produce a file that I will be more comfortable with. I'm starting a blog with my analysis projects and will have this and other files available for anyone to download.

I would love to see what you come up with on your projects! Please let us know where your Blog is and where we can download files when the time comes. Thanks

[nash13]

Apr 07, 2018	box	Sat	home	Angels	JC Ramirez - R	Athletics	Andrew Triggs - R	3-7	-4	L	2.0	O	7-7	0-0	0-4	-105	8.0	9
Apr 07, 2018	box	Sat	home	Astros	Gerrit Cole - R	Padres	Bryan Mitchell - R	1-0	1	W	-7.0	U	6-6	0-1	1-0	-270	8.0	10+
Apr 07, 2018	box	Sat	home	Phillies	Vince Velasquez - R	Marlins	Dillon Peters - L	20-1	19	W	13.0	O	20-5	1-0	19-1	-165	8.0	9
Apr 07, 2018	box	Sat	home	White Sox	Lucas Giolito - R	Tigers	Michael Fulmer - R	1-6	-5	L	-1.0	U	8-6	0-1	0-5	-110	8.0	9

yesterday went 2-2