Am I playing myself, when it comes to sports betting?

[Justin7]

As I see it, there is forum where players who like to can post their picks. It is called "picks".

I see this forum as being more for analysis, betting techiques and handicapping by numbers.

I was VERY disappointed however when a thread that was posted here about can you show a flat profit betting college hoops with buying three points to -170 was moved.

It lead to interesting discussions both at EOG and OGD, and I would have like to see the posters here take a look at it. It looked as if the buy was a solid value in most situations.

Never got discussed here though.

I don't recall that thread. If you give me a link, I'll put it in this forum as well.

[Peep]

Sure. It was kind of a dumb title, came from EOG. The title didn't reflect the content. Here is the link that the original post refered to. I don't remember who made it.

http://forums.eog.com/online-sportsbooks-and-gambling-discussion/anybody-familiar-with-cbb-betting-203584.html

[durito]

It's a wonder BetFirstClass is still in business.

You won't find many places that let you buy 3pts in basketball for 60 cents. The sportsbook.com group does, though they just changed some rules about it on their friday -105/-105 offerings.

I was playing with a local that let me, but he booted me.

It's not a blind edge, but at many numbers the 3pts at -170 is better than not buying. You can get the basic idea with the half pt calculator though I wouldn't count on it.

FWIW Greek charges 110 cents for 3 pts and Pinny charges about 75

[G's pks]

TLD and durito are two of the sharpest posters on this or any forum, If you fail to see that, it just reflects poorly on you.

Really??? How sharp would you consider a guy that sits here throwing insults?? I checked Dorito's post it is very common for him to be insulting people continuously... Not the way intelligent people I know talk, sorry...

But thats ok, I just finished 2-0, for the night. Also I am in a nice 8-2 run. Oh and all my picks are posted in my threads... Done here...

But good luck to TLD, Dorito, and you LT Profits no hard feelings. To busy winning to sit here arguing..

[durito]

Really??? How sharp would you consider a guy that sits here throwing insults?? I checked Dorito's post it is very common for him to be insulting people continuously... Not the way intelligent people I know talk, sorry...

But thats ok, I just finished 2-0, for the night. Also I am in a nice 8-2 run. Oh and all my picks are posted in my threads... Done here...

But good luck to TLD, Dorito, and you LT Profits no hard feelings. To busy winning to sit here arguing..

What kind of post do you prefer:

You won't find many places that let you buy 3pts in basketball for 60 cents. The sportsbook.com group does, though they just changed some rules about it on their friday -105/-105 offerings.

I was playing with a local that let me, but he booted me.

It's not a blind edge, but at many numbers the 3pts at -170 is better than not buying. You can get the basic idea with the half pt calculator though I wouldn't count on it.

FWIW Greek charges 110 cents for 3 pts and Pinny charges about 75

or

5***** Arkansas -2
3### Kansas Tech +5.6

[TLD]

Bingo.

[Heartman2]

Durito, the guy asked a question about going pro and I gave him the best answer he'll ever get, in my opinion.

I would prefer a poster who has documented picks over a poster who never posts a pick, without hesitation. The gambling world is full of con artists, bullsh!tters and "know it all" genious types.

SBR should change the title of this forum to THE MATHMATICS OF GAMBLING. In my opinion, most of the posts I've seen here have very little to do with handicapping sports.

In my opinion, the hard core research specialists are better handicappers than the hard core math guys, by far!!!

[Dazzez]

I would prefer a poster who has documented picks over a poster who never posts a pick, without hesitation. The gambling world is full of con artists, bullsh!tters and "know it all" genious types.

SBR should change the title of this forum to THE MATHMATICS OF GAMBLING. In my opinion, most of the posts I've seen here have very little to do with handicapping sports.

If this forum were called the Handicapper Pull Shit Out of Your Ass and Smear it on Your Face Tank not and the Handicapper Think Tank, then I would agree with you.

[G's pks]

I really liked your post and wanted to thank you for the post that anyone who actually gambles would appreciate. This is the type of answer that has value, a hands on one, thank you. And for those throwing insults saying oh you should go in players chat... I will go there, here where ever I want! Handicapping forum should actually involve those involved in gambling willing to talk about...actual bets!

Here is a guy giving fantastic advice and straight to the point, not 10 paragraphs long. Good work.... And to the guys that think no one can post in here but them... Later boys!

Durito, the guy asked a question about going pro and I gave him the best answer he'll ever get, in my opinion.

I would prefer a poster who has documented picks over a poster who never posts a pick, without hesitation. The gambling world is full of con artists, bullsh!tters and "know it all" genious types.

SBR should change the title of this forum to THE MATHMATICS OF GAMBLING. In my opinion, most of the posts I've seen here have very little to do with handicapping sports.

In my opinion, the hard core research specialists are better handicappers than the hard core math guys, by far!!!

[Heartman2]

Sounds like something a junior high school kid would post Dazzez! How old are you? 12 maybe 13?

[durito]

In my opinion, the hard core research specialists are better handicappers than the hard core math guys, by far!!!

Great. But I have no interest in handicapping. I do this to make money. And there is no doubt the math guys make a lot more money than the "handicappers".

[Heartman2]

Wrong again durito!!! The specialist makes more money, has a higher return on investment, doesn't need to bonus whore, doesn't need 30+ books, and they can post winning picks on a forum. The math guys can't hold the specialists jock strap!!!

[durito]

How many books does the "specialist" need?

[Heartman2]

Bobby, if you have 30 to 50 hours a week to handicap, hard core research and specialization is the way to go. I'm sure that some of these math guys win, but most of them are FULL OF SHIT!!!

[xyz]

Math or handicapping, it really doesn't matter how you do it. The end goal is to make as much money as possible spending as little effort as possible. If you are making money at this, congrats For me, handicapping is too much work. I can make more money in the same amount of time doing other things. I prefer automating the process. Most of time, I have no idea about the team or player that I am betting on. Especially NCAA, I am learning about new college names every day

[Heartman2]

Less than the math guy needs, durito.

[bobbydrake]

What's the difference between "hard core research specialists" and "math guys"?

[durito]

Less than the math guy needs, durito.

Why?


No matter how you approach it, getting the best number is always going to make you more money.

[Heartman2]

When I was a Bankroll pro at Nascar, I only needed 8 books to make a living. I could have made a living betting 1 book only, but I wouldn't have made as much money.

[durito]

When I was a Bankroll pro at Nascar, I only needed 8 books to make a living. I could have made a living betting 1 book only, but I wouldn't have made as much money.

So, in other words, exactly what I just said.

[u21c3f6]

Math or handicapping, it really doesn't matter how you do it. The end goal is to make as much money as possible spending as little effort as possible. If you are making money at this, congrats For me, handicapping is too much work. I can make more money in the same amount of time doing other things. I prefer automating the process. Most of time, I have no idea about the team or player that I am betting on. Especially NCAA, I am learning about new college names every day

Agreed.

I do extremely well betting on NCAA BB using "math" only. If the name of the City or State is not in the team's name, I don't even know where they are playing. I can't tell you the name of a coach or the best players, yet I make a consistent profit relying on "math" only.

The fact that I can make a profit using math does not mean that someone else cannot make a profit using a different approach. The trick is to find an edge that will make your wagers have a positive expectation. Is one way "better" than another? Not IMO. You have to find what works for you.

Joe.

[Heartman2]

Bobby,the hard core research gambler says that if you do the work, then you have a good chance to predict the outcome of a sporting event. Your best bet is to cover every handicapping angle possible, know as much about the teams and or players and take all this information into account before placing a wager.

The math guy says it's all about the number you get. The number is the most important factor involved in placing a wager.

The research guy tries to get the best number but he doesn't make that the most important factor in placing a wager. Information is king!!!

[durito]

Since you are the only "hard core research" guy I've ever come across, I'll just take your word for it.

But, I'd wonder if research plus a little math might make you a whole bunch more money.

[Heartman2]

I will say that I think the research gambler has a higher return on investment, but has to work harder than the math guy.

The math guy has a higher return on labor. Still has to work hard, but not at the level of the research gambler, to win.

These are all generalities and there is cross-over between the 2 betting philosophies

[LT Profits]

Guys, guys.

There is no "better" method here, as long as you consistently beat the closing line (which I feel is REALLY the most important thing in betting), it really does not matter what means you used to make your plays.

Now is it best to get the best number? Obviously yes.

BUT even if you don't get a number at it's peak point, you will still make a profit as long as you can beat the closing number regularly.

[Heartman2]

Sure, the research guy needs to use math to maximize his profit. No one has to take my word for it though. I have over 1500 posted picks that speak for themselves.

[u21c3f6]

Bobby,the hard core research gambler says that if you do the work, then you have a good chance to predict the outcome of a sporting event. Your best bet is to cover every handicapping angle possible, know as much about the teams and or players and take all this information into account before placing a wager.

The math guy says it's all about the number you get. The number is the most important factor involved in placing a wager.

The research guy tries to get the best number but he doesn't make that the most important factor in placing a wager. Information is king!!!

Let's discuss. Unfortunately this will be long but I hope it will be worth it.

I was introduced to Jai Alai over 2 decades ago. I enjoyed watching the game and since I also like to "gamble", I tried to find a way to make a profit betting on Jai Alai. There are singles and doubles games and I started by keeping additional stats that were not readily available in the program. There were stats of how often a player finished first, second or third in the program but the program did not break that down by post position or whether it was in a singles or a doubles game. I also kept track of the results of doubles teams by post position in the hope of finding an edge. Long story short, I couldn't find an edge with my additional statistics. Even though the data that I had was not published, it was obvious that the betting crowd was sufficiently aware of the better players and doubles combinations to keep the returns on wagers in the negative expectation area.

After that did not work, I approached it differently. Instead of looking at the players, I looked at the return based on post position only. (For those unfamiliar with Jai Alai, the game is played in a certain order which allows certain post positions to win, place or show more often than others and also has an impact on quinella, exacta and trifecta combinations). When I looked at straight bets, quinellas and exactas, still no edge as again the betting public was sufficiently aware of the statistics to keep the returns in the negative expectation area. However, the trifecta was different.

There are 336 trifecta combinations in a Jai Alai game (8*7*6). When I compared the returns on the different combinations to the expected returns, a pattern emerged. There were 10 combinations that were consistently underbet by the public and I could see why. Because of the way the game is played, the public tended to make their trifecta wagers with numbers that did not touch which is usually a good strategy. But what I found out was that there were some combinations that while having touching numbers, won more frequently than the public's expectation and showed a positive return.

I spent many years taking thousands of dollars out of the Jai Alai trifecta pools. Unfortunately, the popularity of Jai Alai dwindled many years ago and the trifecta pools are anemic. They are so anemic that due to the pari-mutuel system (25% take), wagering on the "good" combinations reduces the return on the winners to break even or less. It was good while it lasted. Money can still be won in the twin-tri pools (which I have won) but frankly it is too much time and effort because you have to be physically there so I don't bother.

If I could have found an edge by "handicapping" the players, I would have bet it. But because I found an edge using "math", I bet that. It is this same methodolgy that I use to find edges in anything that I wager on and I wager on just about everything!!!

Joe.

[TLD]

I’ll reiterate, since things have gotten far afield:

The overwhelming majority of things I’ve learned in the forums that have helped me to make money at sportsbetting have come from posters who rarely if ever post picks.

That’s all. Just reporting a fact about my personal experience, and suggesting that a newcomer interested in furthering his education in this area might be well served to research in the archives posts by some individuals I happened to mention as examples of such posters.

I’ve yet to see anything in this or related threads that would cause me to second guess what I said.

[reno cool]

Let's discuss. Unfortunately this will be long but I hope it will be worth it.

I was introduced to Jai Alai over 2 decades ago. I enjoyed watching the game and since I also like to "gamble", I tried to find a way to make a profit betting on Jai Alai. There are singles and doubles games and I started by keeping additional stats that were not readily available in the program. There were stats of how often a player finished first, second or third in the program but the program did not break that down by post position or whether it was in a singles or a doubles game. I also kept track of the results of doubles teams by post position in the hope of finding an edge. Long story short, I couldn't find an edge with my additional statistics. Even though the data that I had was not published, it was obvious that the betting crowd was sufficiently aware of the better players and doubles combinations to keep the returns on wagers in the negative expectation area.

After that did not work, I approached it differently. Instead of looking at the players, I looked at the return based on post position only. (For those unfamiliar with Jai Alai, the game is played in a certain order which allows certain post positions to win, place or show more often than others and also has an impact on quinella, exacta and trifecta combinations). When I looked at straight bets, quinellas and exactas, still no edge as again the betting public was sufficiently aware of the statistics to keep the returns in the negative expectation area. However, the trifecta was different.

There are 336 trifecta combinations in a Jai Alai game (8*7*6). When I compared the returns on the different combinations to the expected returns, a pattern emerged. There were 10 combinations that were consistently underbet by the public and I could see why. Because of the way the game is played, the public tended to make their trifecta wagers with numbers that did not touch which is usually a good strategy. But what I found out was that there were some combinations that while having touching numbers, won more frequently than the public's expectation and showed a positive return.

I spent many years taking thousands of dollars out of the Jai Alai trifecta pools. Unfortunately, the popularity of Jai Alai dwindled many years ago and the trifecta pools are anemic. They are so anemic that due to the pari-mutuel system (25% take), wagering on the "good" combinations reduces the return on the winners to break even or less. It was good while it lasted. Money can still be won in the twin-tri pools (which I have won) but frankly it is too much time and effort because you have to be physically there so I don't bother.

If I could have found an edge by "handicapping" the players, I would have bet it. But because I found an edge using "math", I bet that. It is this same methodolgy that I use to find edges in anything that I wager on and I wager on just about everything!!!

Joe.

great story man. I particularly enjoyed it since I started my gambling career betting greyhounds and spend many hours doing similar things you describe.
I want to say that I don't see that a research specialist and a math guy are polar opposites. The best player does both.

[Justin7]

Bobby, if you have 30 to 50 hours a week to handicap, hard core research and specialization is the way to go. I'm sure that some of these math guys win, but most of them are FULL OF SHIT!!!

You can get a high return on risk, but the market size is small. How do you bet 10k on Div II football? You can't.

If I can hold 8% on a small sport, or 2% on a large sport with (relatively) infinite liquidity, I'll bet the small sport as long as the time doesn't keep me from bigger fish.

[DukeJohn]

Is sports betting just for entertainment purposes or can you really win long term? I'm not trying to offend anyone. I just want a true answer.

I've had my fair share of touts, systems, the guy who thinks he knows it all at the sportsbook, sports gambling books, and other forums like this. They all haven't worked out for me and I don't think they ever will.

Do any one of you in this forum make a living through sports betting?** If so, are you your own handicapper or do you pay for a service? Do you use a software program that gives you winning probablities? Do you fluctuate your units or do you just flat bet?

Any Bashers or Supporters that would like to comment, prove me wrong, make fun of me, or direct me to the right direction.

**Your only form of income is through sports betting.

Currently Sports Betting is my sole means of income. It pays my bills and gives me a little extra to grow my bankroll, but it was a long a hard road to get here... I tried the touts, lost a lot of money almost gave up... It was actually on this forum where everything came together, but it took many, many sleepless nights and 24 hour study sessions...

Now here is my two cents why you won't find that special formula for success exactly spelled out for you, because if a person has discovered an easy path to profitability they would most likely keep it to themselves, as it would be worth millions, furthermore, if it was a formula type pick soon bookmakers would adjust to compensate if it was public knowledge. However, you may find someone on a hot streak now and then.

As for what I do, I go against logic. I feel trying to get a hold of randomness in a mathematically sense can not happen and that the sports betting world is ruled by chaos to a certain degree. It is trying to understand, as well as can be, this unknown that put me on my road to success in this industry. I will say this, Money Management is the foundation, without it, everything crumbles... Now don't get me wrong I use math to acquire my picks and of course set up my money management, but I will not ever really post my picks. Occasionally I will be cheering on a team in the forums which lets one know I chose that team, but other than that I do not post..

So, perhaps this didn't give you a perfect insight as to what to do, but this is a road of self discovery and only a few make it through. Even myself, although on the right path the last couple of years, could end up milling with the masses once again... Time will tell... but for now, I shall praise life and be happy that the world is beautiful... for now...

Good Luck and I wish you success...

[bobbydrake]

Thanks to all for your inputs. There are a few diamonds in this thread and I hope I'll learn from all of you in the future. I was hoping to hear from Granchrow and his views about my dilema, but i guess he's a very busy man. When TLD suggested a few names of posters that I could learn from, Granchrow stood out the most. That dude is sick. Is he related to the guy in the movie entitled, "The Beautiful Mind?" I'm not insinuating the possibility of Granchrow possessing "invisible friends", but if you're taking something that makes you use more than 10% of your brain... I want some!

[HedgeHog]

Obviously the OP's question has been answered. Yes, some people make money consistently from betting...and there is certainly more than one formula for success. Key, however, is money management and discipline. Multiple outlets helps tremendously too.

Also, contrary to popular belief, teasers, pleasers, ifs and pars often offer better opportunities than straights.

[lukeouk]

I can definitely see the distinction between career winners and professionals. This is very evident in the world of online poker where a "professional" can make a steady income by playing several diligent games each day; in general this type of player will possess a high level of mathematical ability and use a sensible bankroll management scheme.

It is possible (and occurs annoyingly often) that a relatively reckless and usually mathematically ignorant player can become a "career winner" - in this context it would usually be made possible through a single (or rarely several) large tournament wins.

Clearly there are diligent and mathematically sound players taking part in the large tournaments and some, more reckless, players taking part in the smaller size games.

As a professional you would hope to benefit from the aggregate effect of these more careless players but that doesn't mean you should be completely shocked when ".:ALL IN ALBERT:." overtakes your modest family car in his shiny, red Ferrari

[DukeJohn]

Duke, posting a winning record without posting picks is bullshit, in my opinion, and you should be criticized for doing that. So, we're supposed to take your word for it that those numbers are accurate?

I should have been more clear. Not that it really matters, but you will find a lot of my plays on these boards, but I do not start my own threads as such, usually I will say I am with you on this or that, BOL, type thing. Although my NBA season has been over since January, not sure how much I posted during this last season, was really busy, but 2007 NBA and maybe 2008 MLB I posted quite a few. However, whether a person posts or not I for one would like to see say, Justin's record; don't really care what his picks are, just to compare. I used to love to log on and see how Diogee or Chuteboxe was doing, however since I logged back into SBR I see Diogee is gone mostly...

Anyway...

BOL