Am I playing myself, when it comes to sports betting?

[bobbydrake]

Is sports betting just for entertainment purposes or can you really win long term? I'm not trying to offend anyone. I just want a true answer.

I've had my fair share of touts, systems, the guy who thinks he knows it all at the sportsbook, sports gambling books, and other forums like this. They all haven't worked out for me and I don't think they ever will.

Do any one of you in this forum make a living through sports betting?** If so, are you your own handicapper or do you pay for a service? Do you use a software program that gives you winning probablities? Do you fluctuate your units or do you just flat bet?

Any Bashers or Supporters that would like to comment, prove me wrong, make fun of me, or direct me to the right direction.

**Your only form of income is through sports betting.

[xyz]

Start by studying the topics proposed by the think tank FAQ: http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...-tank-faq.html

After understanding that material, you should have an answer to your own question.

[bobbydrake]

Will do...

Thanks

[Justin7]

Thanks

You can make money from betting sports. For the last 5 years, sports hasn't been my only income, but it has surpassed all other income streams combined.

It's not easy. You have to work your ass off and be disciplined. If you have the skills to succeed at this, you can succeed at 100 other things - many of which are less stressful.

[Madetowin]

Less stressful what's the fun in that ? If I don't contemplate suicide every game I'm disappointed

[bobbydrake]

As a value investor in stocks, I understand that value and price is very valuable in your quest to beat the market. With that being said, the sportsbook is no different.

These past couple weeks I've been reading a lot of JR Miller and Bob McCune. They booth backup my idea of Value Betting in the sportsbook. Developing your own lines and comparing it to the opening and closing spreads. Any other book or author recommendations?

[durito]

Yea, take everything you read by JR Miller and forget it.

[smitch124]

What about Bob McCune, Durito?

[durito]

Never heard of em.

[TLD]

Bobby, it’s definitely possible to make a living sportsbetting.

I’ve had little other income for about a decade, and believe me, I’m nothing special at this. There are a lot of people who are much sharper in various respects, and/or who are willing to go maybe farther into (if not beyond) certain ethical gray areas than I am. I’ve made a fairly frugal living at it as a mostly part time thing.

I do think it’s substantially harder now. There is far, far less “easy money” out there now than in the past, largely because the legal climate in the U.S. has severely damaged the customer base of a lot of books, and that shrinking pie has had severe direct and indirect consequences that would be too lengthy to try to list and explain here.

So the climate is a lot worse for making a living at this. If I keep constant my current skill and knowledge level, and the amount of time I devote to this, I make substantially less money than a couple years ago. I would have to really commit to this as a full time job and get a lot better at it if I wanted to make that ground back up. And frankly I’m burnt out on this and disgusted by what’s happened with the industry the last couple years, and thus am not willing to do that. So I’m pretty much out of it for now. I may or may not resume at some point in the future. For now I’m focused more on other things I might want to do with my life.

But there are people who made what adjustments they needed to make, and who still make a living at this. I know quite a few personally, so I’m not just basing it on what posters say in the forums.

I don’t know that I would recommend sportsbetting as a way to make a living to you in this climate, but it’s not impossible by any means.

As far as specifics, there are some things I could say, but it’s mostly stuff I and (mostly) others have posted many times here and elsewhere, and I don’t really have the energy to try to go into it all now or look up a lot of links. I do feel for anyone trying to use the forums for information though, because so many of the things posted (often with the most insistence and confidence) are just dead wrong, along with the stuff that’s very helpful. Unfortunately it’s very hard for someone who’s not already reasonably sharp at this stuff to be able to separate one from the other. All I can say is to read everything with a critical eye, think through for yourself what’s being said, and test it where applicable.

For example, when someone proclaims “Teasers are for suckers,” examine his reasoning for making this claim, and compare it to the reasoning offered by those chiming in to disagree. If no reasoning is offered in the first place—which is routine, since most people who believe things like this do so for no deeper reason than they heard it “somewhere”—then you know to ignore it.

[bobbydrake]

Yea, take everything you read by JR Miller and forget it.

Please explain? ex. He doesn't make sense, you got burned by his picks, his books cost too much, you met him and found out he's a jerk, etc...

[TLD]

Miller writes some things that are just incorrect. One example I’m aware of is his insistence on flat betting. His argument for his position is logically fatally flawed. This was explained in detail on various boards in the past, and he and his followers stuck to their guns. This indicated to me that either he is unable to follow a chain of reasoning of intermediate level complexity, or that he saw that he was wrong and preferred to continue disseminating false claims rather than admitting so. So whether it was an intellect problem or an honesty problem, clearly he wasn’t someone to put one’s trust in.

That’s not to say you can’t learn anything from him. I believe the first time I ever came across the notion of “key numbers” (i.e., that certain spreads and totals land more often than others—such as the ‘3’ and ‘7’ in football—and that one needs to take this into account in one’s handicapping) was in something I read by Miller a long time ago. And certainly that’s a very important concept for a beginning sportsbettor to appreciate.

But whatever you can learn from him can be found numerous other places, including places where it isn’t accompanied by a lot of fallacious claims that will screw you up, or by the usual tout bullshit salesman stuff. So I wouldn’t recommend his material.

[bobbydrake]

Thanks Justin7 and TLD for your enlightenment.

Justin7 - keep up the good work bro. keep those videos coming. I visited the gamblers shop this past saturday and found out its closed on the weekends. They probably had the store hours on their website, but i was so determined to go there and thinking its 24/7 las vegas, I didn't think they would be closed on weekends.

TLD - I am very much aware of the bullshit out there and personally got burnt many of times. But I come back everytime with a sense of belief that, with mathematics and probability on my side, the sportsbook can be beaten. Its the BLUE COLLAR STOCK MARKET. I don't care what anyone says but mathematically speaking sports betting, with blackjack and poker, is the only profitable game in the casino for the astute gambler.
Thanks again for your synopsis of the current gambling world. Finding people like you and justin7 is a blessing to me. Filtering these forums for quality people is like finding a diamond in the rough. But I'll keep on trying cause i know for sure that like atracts like.

peace out

[Peep]

Its the BLUE COLLAR STOCK MARKET.

It may be a lot of things, but I would say it is definitely not that.

It is a zero sum game. You win, the bookie loses. You lose, the bookie wins. There is no value being created here as can take place with the buying and selling of stocks.

As to who wins, it is the same as with poker, best hand wins. In sportsbetting, best number wins. The bookie has very good numbers. But that doesn't mean you can't have better numbers in certain areas. These would be the areas to bet in.

[TLD]

Thanks Bobby. There are definitely posters here and on the other boards that one can learn from.

Just a few that happen to come to mind (this is not even close to an exhaustive list, and I mean no disrespect to the many other quality posters) are Ganchrow, Justin7, donjuan, Durito, TomCowley, and Mudcat. I think if one were to do something as simple as doing a search for posts by these posters and just reading at random for awhile, one could pick up quite a bit about handicapping, math, betting strategies, the books, etc.

In general you’ll find there’s a very strong correlation between the quality of the poster and not posting picks. It’s not absolute, but the overwhelming majority of the people from whose posts you can learn the most rarely or never post picks. It’s a whole different mindset.

[cobra_king]

TLD you are shorting yourself. Along with the above posters you mentioned and a few others, your posts are always a must read for these eyes. Most underrated poster on this forum.

[TLD]

Thank you Cobra.

[bobbydrake]

It may be a lot of things, but I would say it is definitely not that.

It is a zero sum game. You win, the bookie loses. You lose, the bookie wins. There is no value being created here as can take place with the buying and selling of stocks.

As to who wins, it is the same as with poker, best hand wins. In sportsbetting, best number wins. The bookie has very good numbers. But that doesn't mean you can't have better numbers in certain areas. These would be the areas to bet in.

I'm confused. Or maybe I didn't explain myself thoroughly. I was going to let this go, but lets help each other out. I admire your bravery.

I see a slight contradiction in your statement. You say "there is no value being created" then you create value by saying "But that doesn't mean you can't have better numbers in certain areas. These would be the areas to bet in." Wouldn't those areas be worth betting on. Worth equalls value, am I not wrong?

As simple as I can be... We all should know that the soul purpose of the line created by the oddsmakers is to best represent public opinion. Handicappers on the other hand create their own lines to see if there is a discrepancy on the oddsmakers behalf. Value is created by the difference of the oddsmakers line and the hadicappers line. Wider the difference, the bigger the Value.

Just like value investing in the stock market. After thorough research of a publicly traded corporation, the value investor ascertains his own price of the business. If the current stock price on the market has a large enough margin of safety compared to the value investor's price of the stock, its a buy. Value is created by the difference of the current stock price and the value investor's stock price. Wider the difference, the bigger the Value.

Hope that explains my "BLUE COLLAR STOCK MARKET."

[G's pks]

Quote from BobbyDrakeAs simple as I can be... We all should know that the soul purpose of the line created by the oddsmakers is to best represent public opinion





I completely disagree! Lines are not created based on public opinion!!!! Lines are created to even out the games and generate betting on both sides. The line once made is moved by public opinion.

Perfect example we had almost everyone screaming the Cards would win the superbowl outright... My capping gave me a score of 30-24 Pit... I ended up winning on Pit ML, those won took the points with the cards won... The lines are statistically based, along with injuries and home field factored in.

[Peep]

There is no value being created refers to the stock market, where, if a company uses the money it raises selling stock wisely, the company becomes worth more, the stock goes up, everyone benefits.

Value has been created.

In sports gambling, there is no chance of more money being in the pot than that you and the person you are betting against (in this case the book) putting in. One of you benefits, the other loses.

Who ever has the best number ultimately wins. You may see value in a line. A book may see value in enticing you to bet that way. Things that make you go humm.....

[Heartman2]

Bobby, I was a BANKROLL professional gambler for 35 months. No other source of income,with 2 minor exceptions, I lived completely off my bankroll.

In my opinion,the absolute best advice that anyone can give you is this. Pick one sport and live it, drink it, eat it, breathe it. To get to the top takes a major time commitment that most are unwilling or unable to make. It's only thru hard core research and specialization that you can become the best of the best.

TLD, anyone who talks sh!t without posting picks is FULL OF SH!T, 99% of the time. Don't tell me how good you are, show me how good you are. The best of the best can post winning picks!!!

[TLD]

Quote from BobbyDrakeAs simple as I can be... We all should know that the soul purpose of the line created by the oddsmakers is to best represent public opinion





I completely disagree! Lines are not created based on public opinion!!!! Lines are created to even out the games and generate betting on both sides. The line once made is moved by public opinion.

Perfect example we had almost everyone screaming the Cards would win the superbowl outright... My capping gave me a score of 30-24 Pit... I ended up winning on Pit ML, those won took the points with the cards won... The lines are statistically based, along with injuries and home field factored in.

I'm not sure what the "complete" disagreement with the multiple exclamation marks is between the suggestion that lines are created by "public opinion" and the suggestion that lines are created "to even out the game and generate betting on both sides." The latter sounds like the books are attempting to base their lines on how they think their customers will bet this game, which is pretty darn close to "public opinion." So it sounds like more of an agreement than a disagreement.

Until the next paragraph where instead of trying "to even out the game and generate betting on both sides" it turns out "the lines are statistically based, along with injuries and home field factored in," which sounds like the books are trying to project the outcome of the games themselves as best they can, rather than aiming for what will generate a certain betting balance from their customers.

So I can't make sense of it. (But then I can't make sense of the notion that "almost everyone [was] screaming the Cards would win the superbowl outright" either, since the Cardinals in fact were a significant underdog in that game.)

Anyway, aside from this particular post, the question itself is an interesting one: Is the goal of the books in setting and moving their lines to bring in balanced action on both sides so that they can just collect the vig?

Which is a different question, by the way, from do they actually succeed in achieving such balanced action? The answer to that is mostly not, or at least not nearly as much as most people probably think.

But as to the first question of whether it's their goal, many treat it as a truism that it is, but you'll also sometimes see this labeled as one of the biggest myths about sportsbetting.

I'd say the truth is probably somewhere in between. I think it's probably true as a rule of thumb, but that there are occasions when a book will aim instead for a certain degree of imbalance in one direction because it's own projection of the game's outcome differs from what would bring in equal money on both sides.

This depends on the book, the sport, the specific game, etc., but where this phenomenon is talked about the most is in connection with Pinnacle. Pinnacle is known to trust it's own prognostications enough to put up "opinionated" lines in order to get action that is out of balance in the direction it wants. For instance, if they crunch their numbers and determine there is a 50% chance 39 or more points will be scored in a certain game and a 50% chance 38 or fewer points will be scored, and yet the consensus line is 35, they might put up 35.5, knowing that that way they'll get more money coming in on Under 35.5 than Over 35.5, when in fact (in their opinion) the game has a significantly greater chance of landing Over 35.5.

So I think in setting and moving the lines, books are looking both at Where do we think this game will land, and Where do we think our customers will think this game will land so we can get equal action. I'd say most books most of the time are more focused on the latter, so I think it's an overstatement to label as "myth" the common notion that books seek balanced action. But they both enter into it.

[TLD]

TLD, anyone who talks sh!t without posting picks is FULL OF SH!T, 99% of the time. Don't tell me how good you are, show me how good you are. The best of the best can post winning picks!!!

As I say, a completely different mindset.

There are people in the forums who are focused on better understanding such things as line shopping, Kelly bet sizing, maximizing the advantages of bonuses, identifying what brings heat from books, knowing how to use past results without falling prey to data mining, the legalities of sportsbetting, the pros and cons of different money transfer methods, the value of half points, which books are showing warning signs of being in trouble, and so on and so forth, and who are at least somewhat willing to share what they know in these areas. These people--some examples of which I noted in an earlier post--rarely if ever post picks.

There are other people in the forums who are focused on proving how "good" they are, trash talking with each other, establishing who is and isn't qualified to "talk shit" about whom, and so on. These people tend to post picks, and to pay attention to others who post picks, and to mostly talk back and forth about these picks.

In my time in the forums, I have learned far, far more in becoming a winning sportsbettor from people in the first group, and I stand by my suggestion to Bobby that someone looking to "go pro" at this would be well served by reading those folks' posts. If your experience has been different, then that's fine.

[G's pks]

TLD when was the last time you put your neck on the line and posted a pick? Very long winded for someone who does not even post a pick once in a while!

As far as my explanation to your comments... hopefully others get it....you are to busy wiith your own opinion....

[G's pks]

Hard to respect someone who never even posts a pick but is so long winded.... I will agree with you...

Bobby, I was a BANKROLL professional gambler for 35 months. No other source of income,with 2 minor exceptions, I lived completely off my bankroll.

In my opinion,the absolute best advice that anyone can give you is this. Pick one sport and live it, drink it, eat it, breathe it. To get to the top takes a major time commitment that most are unwilling or unable to make. It's only thru hard core research and specialization that you can become the best of the best.

TLD, anyone who talks sh!t without posting picks is FULL OF SH!T, 99% of the time. Don't tell me how good you are, show me how good you are. The best of the best can post winning picks!!!

[Peep]

Gee, WOW skrunner.

Think you will deleted though when a mod finds you. You sound suspeciously like a tout. Should have kept this information to yourself lol.

[bobbydrake]

Thanks TLD for your clarification. Its hard for me to express my thoughts into words, while knowing my audience and their knowledge of the subject. Sometimes I think everyone knows what I know. I'm still new at this and I'll difinitely get better over time.

peace

[durito]

TLD when was the last time you put your neck on the line and posted a pick? Very long winded for someone who does not even post a pick once in a while!

As far as my explanation to your comments... hopefully others get it....you are to busy wiith your own opinion....

TLD's posts contain the highest signal to noise ratio of anyone on the forum. Search through the old ones and you'll learn plenty that will help you win.

Or don't. I think this part of the forum is probably more your speed:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/

[durito]

Bobby, I was a BANKROLL professional gambler for 35 months. No other source of income,with 2 minor exceptions, I lived completely off my bankroll.

In my opinion,the absolute best advice that anyone can give you is this. Pick one sport and live it, drink it, eat it, breathe it. To get to the top takes a major time commitment that most are unwilling or unable to make. It's only thru hard core research and specialization that you can become the best of the best.

TLD, anyone who talks sh!t without posting picks is FULL OF SH!T, 99% of the time. Don't tell me how good you are, show me how good you are. The best of the best can post winning picks!!!

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/

[TLD]

Hard to respect someone who never even posts a pick but is so long winded

When I decide to seek your respect, I promise I will post many picks. I may at that time work on the "long winded" thing too.

[u21c3f6]

Is sports betting just for entertainment purposes or can you really win long term? I'm not trying to offend anyone. I just want a true answer.

It can be both.

Do any one of you in this forum make a living through sports betting?** If so, are you your own handicapper or do you pay for a service? Do you use a software program that gives you winning probablities? Do you fluctuate your units or do you just flat bet?

I do not make my "living" through sports betting but I do make a significant amount of money from sports betting. I am my own "handicapper" and have never used a service. It is more of a hobby for me. I use MS Access to to enter data to find "edges" and I use MS Excel to calculate the wagers. I use a Kelly style % wagering.

Any Bashers or Supporters that would like to comment, prove me wrong, make fun of me, or direct me to the right direction.

The right direction is "simply" finding an "edge" that makes your wagers have a positive expectation. There are many different ways to approach finding an "edge" so there is no one "right" direction IMO.

Joe.

[G's pks]

When I decide to seek your respect, I promise I will post many picks. I may at that time work on the "long winded" thing too.

You better just start with one...

[G's pks]

TLD's posts contain the highest signal to noise ratio of anyone on the forum. Search through the old ones and you'll learn plenty that will help you win.

Or don't. I think this part of the forum is probably more your speed:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/

Like i need to listen to you.. Guess you are a genius... Just checked about 5-10 of your posts... Calling everyone an idiot and questioning their IQ... OK Sponge Bob...

[LT Profits]

Like i need to listen to you.. Guess you are a genius... Just checked about 5-10 of your posts... Calling everyone an idiot and questioning their IQ... OK Sponge Bob...

TLD and durito are two of the sharpest posters on this or any forum, If you fail to see that, it just reflects poorly on you.

[Peep]

As I see it, there is forum where players who like to can post their picks. It is called "picks".

I see this forum as being more for analysis, betting techiques and handicapping by numbers.

I was VERY disappointed however when a thread that was posted here about can you show a flat profit betting college hoops with buying three points to -170 was moved.

It lead to interesting discussions both at EOG and OGD, and I would have like to see the posters here take a look at it. It looked as if the buy was a solid value in most situations.

Never got discussed here though.