Arbitrage/Surebet is waste of money if you're betting the other side at Pinnacle..

[ace7550]

Is there a particular sport that happens more often with arbitrage?

It happens every day in MLB for me. Not big differences but enough to hedge and have a decent return. I see +180/-175 or similar fairly often.

[ace7550]

Ok my 5 cents here... Hm..

first of all i have been using a similar strategy before i found a better one and it works better than most of the crap posted at this forum

Please enlighten us...

[Slanina]

It happens every day in MLB for me. Not big differences but enough to hedge and have a decent return. I see +180/-175 or similar fairly often.

What books do you have accounts with?

[ace7550]

If you go to SBR and look at all the books with a better than C rating that accept US players I probably have an account with them. My favorites are youwager, gtbets, heritage/wagerweb (These are the same company), and bookmaker/dsi/justbet (also the same company). Looselines also has good lines.

[ace7550]

915
916

4:07p

CWS - Quintana (L)

TOR - Estrada (R)

+115
-135

+120
-130

+115
-125

+131
-141

+122
-132

+115
-125

+119
-128

+121
-131

+124
-134

+120
-130

+120
-130

That's what I'm talking about. The +131 is GT

[Slanina]

Nice one. I'll have to take a more serious look into it. Having 6-7 books is a slight deterrent. Only have 5D and Heritage as of now.

[ace7550]

btc has made things a lot easier. If you use btc it's very easy to transfer funds to books or out of books. Any good book can take a deposit or issue a withdrawal within a few hours.

[Slanina]

btc has made things a lot easier. If you use btc it's very easy to transfer funds to books or out of books. Any good book can take a deposit or issue a withdrawal within a few hours.

Are SBR odds delayed at all? It's not so much having several books, it's capital needed to fund so many at once. $400 per book even get me in the parking lot?

[joey86bu]

Good strategy I used to do the same thing. Try adding Intertops on your book list as they also move slow.
Ya Sawyers idea is golden tbh.
Go on any arbing site and players will tell you long term where their profits come from and it isn't pinnacle.
Look for 5% value over the pinny line and maybe some other things and you should be good if ya ever wanna do value bets and not arbing.

[Maximo]

I read stupid things before but this tops all of them. just wasted 3 mins on here

[Snoman]

I read stupid things before but this tops all of them. just wasted 3 mins on here

Amen, it's killing me how this is even an argument somehow lmfao

[ace7550]

Are SBR odds delayed at all? It's not so much having several books, it's capital needed to fund so many at once. $400 per book even get me in the parking lot?

Yes SBR odds are definitely delayed sometimes. Sometimes you need to be quick to catch a good opportunity. When I am watching the lines I have all my sites open and logged in so that I can make a bet as quickly as possible. Oftentimes I watch the fast books lines move, make a bet on a slow book, wait a couple minutes, and then hedge. Sometimes you don't have to wait and there is a good hedge just sitting there.
If you can do $500 a book that's a good start. And take advantage of the bonuses the sites offer. If you are going to grind out a profit you might as well take advantage of anything free the books are offering.
Good luck Slanina. Let me know if I can help with anything else.

[Slanina]

Yes SBR odds are definitely delayed sometimes. Sometimes you need to be quick to catch a good opportunity. When I am watching the lines I have all my sites open and logged in so that I can make a bet as quickly as possible. Oftentimes I watch the fast books lines move, make a bet on a slow book, wait a couple minutes, and then hedge. Sometimes you don't have to wait and there is a good hedge just sitting there.
If you can do $500 a book that's a good start. And take advantage of the bonuses the sites offer. If you are going to grind out a profit you might as well take advantage of anything free the books are offering.
Good luck Slanina. Let me know if I can help with anything else.

Appreciate the info. I'll have to look more into this as I'm intrigued now. And with your experience, assuming you could start over today, what would be your first 5 books to start with? Currently only setup with 5D and Heritage.

[tsty]

Is there any point to arbitrage unless your betting like 10k+ on each game?

seems very low profits and are you guys not scared that a bookie might deny ur action leaving with u only one bet at certain times?

[ace7550]

Is there any point to arbitrage unless your betting like 10k+ on each game?

seems very low profits and are you guys not scared that a bookie might deny ur action leaving with u only one bet at certain times?

It is very rare for them to cancel a bet unless it is a bad line. It is pretty easy to tell the difference between a bad line and an arbitrage opportunity if you have been doing this for more than a month. +160/-154 = good arbitrage oppurtunity. +160/+120 = bad line.
I find that it is important to take full advantage of sign up bonuses and reload bonuses to make this system worth it. My typical wager is between $250 and $1000.
Yes, it's a grind. But if you have a job where you are in front of a computer a lot anyways then it makes sense.

[ace7550]

Appreciate the info. I'll have to look more into this as I'm intrigued now. And with your experience, assuming you could start over today, what would be your first 5 books to start with? Currently only setup with 5D and Heritage.

5D and heritage are good. Deposit at GTbets and take advantage of their 100% bonus. Youwager also has great lines and usually a good first deposit bonus. You could use Bovada or sportsbetting as your fifth book. If you do this for more than a year you will end up depositing at just about every reputable book out there.
Do you know about the freeplay trick to make your freeplay worth more than 50% of cash? If not I can explain. It will significantly increase your profits from freeplay bonuses.
By the way, if you are going to be making deposits maybe use me as a reference so i can get some free referral cash?

[Slanina]

5D and heritage are good. Deposit at GTbets and take advantage of their 100% bonus. Youwager also has great lines and usually a good first deposit bonus. You could use Bovada or sportsbetting as your fifth book. If you do this for more than a year you will end up depositing at just about every reputable book out there.
Do you know about the freeplay trick to make your freeplay worth more than 50% of cash? If not I can explain. It will significantly increase your profits from freeplay bonuses.
By the way, if you are going to be making deposits maybe use me as a reference so i can get some free referral cash?

I have an account with Bovada back from my Bodog poker days. But I don't have one with GTbets. So I can use you as a referral when the time comes. Are you using any other service/site for line updates?

[ace7550]

I have an account with Bovada back from my Bodog poker days. But I don't have one with GTbets. So I can use you as a referral when the time comes. Are you using any other service/site for line updates?

I'm not. I just haven't found one any better than SBR. And it's very convenient that SBR lets you choose the order in which you see the books' lines. SBR is not always correct though. They are actually off a little quite often. And sometimes they are a minute or two late on their updates. I'm currently looking into having a programmer build me a program that updates the lines quicker and more accurately for me. Arbitrage is a hell of a lot easier when you can look at a number of books' lines all in accurate real time.
Do you use any other sites for line updates?

[getlucky2win]

Lol

[abetandy]

The argument is about theory vs. Reality. Reality wins.

[abetandy]

ace7550 I wanted to send a screen shot but have no way to do so or PM you until I get 40 posts. Stay tuned - 38 more posts to go lol.

[Alfa1234]

The argument is sound and 100% correct. Pinnacle and betfair are so called sharps. They set the market and in a big enough market have the most efficient price (or odd). That means, if Pinnacle gives an odd of "2" for something there is a 50% chance of that event happening minus their juice (for major markets lets say the juice is 2%). That would mean the chance of that odd winning is about 49%.

This is a constant for every odd on their lines, the same goes for a fully formed market on Betfair.

Now if you were to bet, consistently, on an odd that is higher than the Pinnacle or Betfair odd every time (this is what arbitrage players do, they bet on an odd at a softbook and counter it with Pinnacle or Betfair) you would effectively be betting on a odd that is a "better" odd than the efficient market price...giving you an edge over the long term. If you were to find, at a book an odd of 2.2 and the Pinnacle odd for that same market was 2 and you would bet that consistantly every time you'd be getting a payout of 60% for something that has only a 49% chance of happening. That gives you an edge. Do it hundreds of times and you will win money.

It's like a coin toss. If someone would give you a payout of 55% for "heads" and you would bet that every time...in the end you would always win as the actual chance of it happening is only 50%. This is a fact. As long as the payout you can get is higher than the actual chance % of the event happening, you'll win long term.

It's a fact, there is data about this and people have been doing it for a long time. Just don't do it in small or unformed markets as the Pinny or Betfair price is not efficient there and won't reflect the real odds of something happening.

[Alfa1234]

Also: this is the reason soft books ban or limit arbitrage players. They know the player has an edge on them and will win long term because he is getting a better price than the actual market price every time, and he will beat them long term.

[stevex]

I'm not. I just haven't found one any better than SBR. And it's very convenient that SBR lets you choose the order in which you see the books' lines. SBR is not always correct though. They are actually off a little quite often. And sometimes they are a minute or two late on their updates. I'm currently looking into having a programmer build me a program that updates the lines quicker and more accurately for me. Arbitrage is a hell of a lot easier when you can look at a number of books' lines all in accurate real time.
Do you use any other sites for line updates?

I'm going to assume that baseball is really the only sport you can do this in. At least with enough frequency to make it worth your while.

[MikeyPicks1]

The title of this thread is so true. I can't tell you how many times I lose, even when Pinny eventually moves in the direction I'm betting. It's borderline spooky.

[MikeyPicks1]

And I might add, when I say spooky, we can throw in conspiracy with that. On a very deep level are they shifting markets to get arbers onto a specific side? Let's just think of this, are "they" moving on air in order to force the arbs?

[Sawyer]

4 years passed since I opened the thread.
Do you know..everyday I see how true it is..

[DeathAdder]

4 years passed since I opened the thread.
Do you know..everyday I see how true it is..

Well it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out Pinnacle has the sharpest lines. So obviously you'll make money betting off lines at slow moving bookmakers until they ban your ass. Not gonna give you credit for something that's been widely known since the begging of online sportsbetting

[MikeyPicks1]

Well, I will give him credit since he's one of the few posts that can be found on the subject. And since this thing has been around so long one might figure more people would have been discussing it. Thumbs up to Sawyer.

[KVB]

And I might add, when I say spooky, we can throw in conspiracy with that. On a very deep level are they shifting markets to get arbers onto a specific side? Let's just think of this, are "they" moving on air in order to force the arbs?

There are many groups that the market tries to "force to play" using line movement. This is the name of the game. The markets lead bettors into plays all the time.

This is just another area in sports betting where patience as a virtue can be applied for profit.

Understanding why the market opens where it does, and why it moves to where it moves will go a long way toward earning long term profits.

[trump4prez]

The argument is sound and 100% correct. Pinnacle and betfair are so called sharps. They set the market and in a big enough market have the most efficient price (or odd). That means, if Pinnacle gives an odd of "2" for something there is a 50% chance of that event happening minus their juice (for major markets lets say the juice is 2%). That would mean the chance of that odd winning is about 49%.

This is a constant for every odd on their lines, the same goes for a fully formed market on Betfair.

Now if you were to bet, consistently, on an odd that is higher than the Pinnacle or Betfair odd every time (this is what arbitrage players do, they bet on an odd at a softbook and counter it with Pinnacle or Betfair) you would effectively be betting on a odd that is a "better" odd than the efficient market price...giving you an edge over the long term. If you were to find, at a book an odd of 2.2 and the Pinnacle odd for that same market was 2 and you would bet that consistantly every time you'd be getting a payout of 60% for something that has only a 49% chance of happening. That gives you an edge. Do it hundreds of times and you will win money.

It's like a coin toss. If someone would give you a payout of 55% for "heads" and you would bet that every time...in the end you would always win as the actual chance of it happening is only 50%. This is a fact. As long as the payout you can get is higher than the actual chance % of the event happening, you'll win long term.

It's a fact, there is data about this and people have been doing it for a long time. Just don't do it in small or unformed markets as the Pinny or Betfair price is not efficient there and won't reflect the real odds of something happening.

But what you forget to mention is that there are only very few books that will keep you long term if you are making profit. Pinnacle, bookmaker, sbobet when it comes to book and exchanges like betfair. All other books like bet365 and all the other square books where you can find soft lines will kick you out when you win consistently--there limits aren't great either to make significant scalp. Eventually you will be left with bookmaker, pinnacle, sbo and betfair and with today's super fast line updates its not easy to scalp profit. Even if you manage to scalp profit, all you need to do is make one mistake or lose out on a possible wager to give back all the little scalp you accumulated in the past 15 or 20 events.

[ozpak]

Arbitrage/Surebet is waste of money if you're betting the other side at pinnacle..

Why?

Because the side you bet on Pinnacle will usually lose and your Pinnacle bankroll will decrease slowly.

Let's say odds are like this at Pinnacle,

Jack to win -164
Mike to win +140

You find "Jack to win" bet at -120 in another bookie.

Now, you can bet both sides and make a surebet (arbitrage) and guarantee the profit with zero risk. However, this is waste of money, why?

Because, the value bet is on other bookie. The bet you placed at Pinnacle is not a value bet. Time to time, you will have winning streaks in Pinnacle but over the long haul, you will lose more often and bets you lost at Pinnacle will drain your bankroll slowly..

At the end of the month,

You will have a situation like this:

Oh, very nice I made 5k net profit this month.

Total Money Won from other books: +15k
Total Money Lost (and deposited) at Pinnacle: -10k

Let me ask you. What if you didn't placed any wager at Pinnacle in order to cover other side?

You would be +15,000 up.

BECAUSE PINNACLE LINES ARE SHARPER!

Been there done that. I totally disagree based on my experience of betting volume of more than $1.2 million dollars in last 10 months. I was heavily arbing upto $15k per arb for 1% or 1.5% return on each arb. There were times when I consistently lose on Pinnacle but win on softbooks and my all bank role ended up in soft books. There were also times when my all bank role ended in Pinnacle and I lose all bets on softbooks. If I had followed valuebetting, I would have been bankrupt many times.

So value bet is just a myth. If it's hold true, all value bettors would be multi-millionaire by now if not multi billionaire. But all I see on different forums the people who promote value bets are staking $10-100 per bet. If somebody is staking only $10 or maximum $100 per hand, I will not bother to listen his words as he is just a newbie or small time punter who will lose everything while doing value betting. Unless you are value betting of minimum $1000 per bet, I will take what you are saying as joke.

If valuebetting theory holds true, sophisticated firms with high tech technology, large amount of previous data, and sharp minds would be cashing in. But research shows that's not the case. Some small time student living in dorm, staking $2 per hand for 100 bets and publishing his results are not worthy to believe.

OP claims to be doing this value betting from last 4 years. I challenged him to show his returns and show by how much percentage his bank balance has increased. 90% chances are his bank balance decreased many folds doing value betting in last 4 years.

Value betting is just another form of a strategy which will eventually burst. You just need 10-15 losing games in a row and voila........... your value betting strategy bursts. To give you an example, Steve is a blogger from Australia who boosted he never had losing year in 1st 5 years doing value betting. What happened in 6th year???? He lose quite a lot came back where he started. His blog URL is

http://www.daily25.com/july-august-2016-monthly-review-61530-00/

So you really want to do value betting for 1 year, 2 year or 3 years with success but then eventually you will go burst and lose everything what you made in last few years???? I leave this question for you to decide that you really want to waste your life doing value betting and then losing all fortune suddenly??

I know many people will disagree from this post but I challenged them to show me their returns and show me how they are travelling in private jets, driving Ferraris and having a harem full of different nationalities.

[tsty]

steve is not a winning better thou

just because he makes money doesn't mean he is a winner

anyone can get a hot streak

he uses tips..

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Been there done that. I totally disagree based on my experience of betting volume of more than $1.2 million dollars in last 10 months. I was heavily arbing upto $15k per arb for 1% or 1.5% return on each arb. There were times when I consistently lose on Pinnacle but win on softbooks and my all bank role ended up in soft books. There were also times when my all bank role ended in Pinnacle and I lose all bets on softbooks. If I had followed valuebetting, I would have been bankrupt many times.

Only if over-staking. This is where most value players go wrong, they drastically over-estimate their edge, whether out of overconfidence or poorly done/overfitted backtests. As Mr Kelly so famously proved: stake more than double the optimal, and you lose money longterm even with value bets.

I've been there too though back when I was arbing - certainly you can end up with uncomfortable amounts in soft books. Once I had over $50k in a book that got into financial trouble, not pleasant at all ......

If valuebetting theory holds true, sophisticated firms with high tech technology, large amount of previous data, and sharp minds would be cashing in.

Those do exist, largely in soccer betting. My impression is most are drawn into the finance world though (that's my background).


As a general response to your post though: most who attempt value betting fail. One of the well-known gambling books said something relevant, paraphrasing: those who have the aptitude to succeed at gambling tend not to be involved in it. That's both in terms in psychology, addiction and objectivity, and the understanding of relevant areas of statistics (and to stay competitive, current developments in machine learning).

[Alfa1234]

Been there done that. I totally disagree based on my experience of betting volume of more than $1.2 million dollars in last 10 months. I was heavily arbing upto $15k per arb for 1% or 1.5% return on each arb. There were times when I consistently lose on Pinnacle but win on softbooks and my all bank role ended up in soft books. There were also times when my all bank role ended in Pinnacle and I lose all bets on softbooks. If I had followed valuebetting, I would have been bankrupt many times.

So value bet is just a myth. If it's hold true, all value bettors would be multi-millionaire by now if not multi billionaire. But all I see on different forums the people who promote value bets are staking $10-100 per bet. If somebody is staking only $10 or maximum $100 per hand, I will not bother to listen his words as he is just a newbie or small time punter who will lose everything while doing value betting. Unless you are value betting of minimum $1000 per bet, I will take what you are saying as joke.

If valuebetting theory holds true, sophisticated firms with high tech technology, large amount of previous data, and sharp minds would be cashing in. But research shows that's not the case. Some small time student living in dorm, staking $2 per hand for 100 bets and publishing his results are not worthy to believe.

OP claims to be doing this value betting from last 4 years. I challenged him to show his returns and show by how much percentage his bank balance has increased. 90% chances are his bank balance decreased many folds doing value betting in last 4 years.

Value betting is just another form of a strategy which will eventually burst. You just need 10-15 losing games in a row and voila........... your value betting strategy bursts. To give you an example, Steve is a blogger from Australia who boosted he never had losing year in 1st 5 years doing value betting. What happened in 6th year???? He lose quite a lot came back where he started. His blog URL is

http://www.daily25.com/july-august-2016-monthly-review-61530-00/

So you really want to do value betting for 1 year, 2 year or 3 years with success but then eventually you will go burst and lose everything what you made in last few years???? I leave this question for you to decide that you really want to waste your life doing value betting and then losing all fortune suddenly??

I know many people will disagree from this post but I challenged them to show me their returns and show me how they are travelling in private jets, driving Ferraris and having a harem full of different nationalities.

Oh wauw, 10 whole months of experience gave you an insight in this industry? 1.2million turnover? Wauw...120k/month at 15k/arb... That sure makes you an expert.

What makes you think your stats are anywhere near relevant or represent anything near true results over a longer period with so few bets placed??

Come back after you've done 20k + bets and see what percentage of your money ended up in Pinnacle and what percentage ended up in softs. You'll change your mind.