Arbitrage/Surebet is waste of money if you're betting the other side at Pinnacle..

**chachi** · 09-26-12, 09:15 AM

Originally posted by Sawyer

6-7 in a row can happen one day bu it's meaningless. You must look over long haul. Even losing 6 in a row didn't happen yet but even if it happens, as I said you must look over long haul. Don't think on short term.

But a few I know in the arbing game would lose 3/4 of their bankroll on 7 losses in a row as they're always arbing max poss stakes ...

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 09-26-12, 09:23 AM

Originally posted by chachi

But a few I know in the arbing game would lose 3/4 of their bankroll on 7 losses in a row as they're always arbing max poss stakes ...

Yep.

The problem here is that the EV being talked about will typically be pretty small. Say 4%, half-Kelly, you're supposed to stake 2% a pop ..... and most will do 10% and go bankrupt in no time.

**hutennis** · 09-26-12, 10:03 AM

Originally posted by HeeeHAWWWW

Yep.

The problem here is that the EV being talked about will typically be pretty small. Say 4%, half-Kelly, you're supposed to stake 2% a pop ..... and most will do 10% and go bankrupt in no time.

This is precisely what OP either doe's not want to or is unable to understand.

**Avskum** · 09-26-12, 11:00 AM

Well that is what should be descussed in this thread, will you save money on following BRM and skipp pinnacle to save money on the juice you pay to pinnacle for your -ev bet? Or do you make more money on betting max stakes and have the risk of losing due to voied bets and paying juice to pinnacle ?
This question is depended on the size of BR so have that in mind while answering .

**hutennis** · 09-26-12, 11:33 AM

Originally posted by Avskum

Well that is what should be descussed in this thread, will you save money on following BRM and skipp pinnacle to save money on the juice you pay to pinnacle for your -ev bet? Or do you make more money on betting max stakes and have the risk of losing due to voied bets and paying juice to pinnacle ?
This question is depended on the size of BR so have that in mind while answering .

There is nothing more to answer.
It is already been answered in this thread with calculations made with size of BR in mind and under assumption that risk of canceling is not an issue.

**mr.ed** · 09-26-12, 12:53 PM

Taking arbitrage only useful when you are unable to determine which side has the value.

A large majority of the time value will be on non-pinnacle side, so long term you will be much better off playing the other side only when arbitrage opportunities arise.

**u21c3f6** · 09-26-12, 02:37 PM

Originally posted by mr.ed

Taking arbitrage only useful when you are unable to determine which side has the value. ...

This is absolutely incorrect. One needs an understanding of EG to understand why even if you did know the +EV side that you are (almost always) still better off taking the arbitrage.

Joe.

**Sawyer** · 09-26-12, 02:54 PM

Originally posted by chachi

But a few I know in the arbing game would lose 3/4 of their bankroll on 7 losses in a row as they're always arbing max poss stakes ...

Pardon me but you won't lose anything if you're making arbitrage. It's a win-win situation.

Originally posted by mr.ed

A large majority of the time value will be on non-pinnacle side, so long term you will be much better off playing the other side only when arbitrage opportunities arise.

**mr.ed** · 09-26-12, 07:31 PM

I suppose if your primary goal is to not lose your bankroll, you can't go wrong taking arbitrage as you are removing risk from the equation and your account will slowly rise. On the other hand, if you are in it for the long term and are looking to maximize profits, throwing money consistently at the bad side is safe, but will result in a serious drag on your profits.

Nearly impossible to lose your bankroll if you are adept at recognizing positive expectation plays and wagering accordingly. Only one with absolutely no money management skills could manage to lose it all by wagering on positive expectation plays.

**chachi** · 09-27-12, 12:53 AM

Originally posted by Sawyer

Pardon me but you won't lose anything if you're making arbitrage. It's a win-win situation.

Was referring to the 'do not hedge the arb' commentary not doing it matched off

**Jubeibeats** · 10-01-12, 11:37 AM

Originally posted by sayhey69

since were stuck in the world of hypotheticals ill throw this one out. suppose we have a 100k roll. pinny is at -164/+140 and the book A is at -120/-110. limit is 500 and the line will move to -180/+120 after we bet it once at book A. how do we maximize ev? and how do you recommend betting this situation?

The bet is the better play in a theoretical world.

But we live in the real world, where risk of ruin is a very real factor, and no matter how you look at it, there is a risk of going broke with the bet.

Its all a matter of personal choice, you can make arguments either way for and against the bet or the scalp, but it comes down to what personal choice you make.

Lots of factors to think about, like what event is the bet on, how sure you are Pinnacle are the authority on that event? If your talking about US Sports(main 4) then your hypothetical is not going to happen. loads of other things to consider, at what time is the bet available, early market, late market.

I believe a lot in creating an environment for yourself where you feel comfortable, someone with a bit of go in them could go for the bet, the more conservative go for the scalp.

Personally I wouldnt place a bet I had not done some actual work on, but I have my style, make a line and bet the openers. I dont bet anywhere close to big enough to worry about limits or anything like that.

At the limits you state, and assuming Pinnacle line is really the true line, then you get 20 Bucks more(approx) by taking the bet over the scalp, but you also get a little bit of risk with that option which is totally eliminated by the scalp, no risk at all with that.

Risk - Reward, and that is a very personal choice to make, to make blanket statements is not wise, horses for courses, and comfort for that bettor.

The question is how much value is the removal of risk worth to you as an individual?

**sayhey69** · 10-01-12, 04:16 PM

but its impossible to go broke betting full kelly

**Jubeibeats** · 10-01-12, 09:15 PM

Fair enough, but you can still basically render your BR small and useless with a bad run. There is still an inherent risk to the bet where as the Scalp has no risk, wont ever have any risk ever, whereas that Pinnacle odds bet, will eventually come to an end.

You are all going to end up with a bunch of books cloning pinnacles numbers all the time, and those differences will disapear, just like every other market driven method, the market will eventually correct for it.

**sayhey69** · 10-01-12, 09:44 PM

Originally posted by Jubeibeats

Fair enough, but you can still basically render your BR small and useless with a bad run. There is still an inherent risk to the bet where as the Scalp has no risk, wont ever have any risk ever, whereas that Pinnacle odds bet, will eventually come to an end.

no idea what the bolded means

You are all going to end up with a bunch of books cloning pinnacles numbers all the time, and those differences will disapear, just like every other market driven method, the market will eventually correct for it.

that wont happen if you are hedging the other side?

**tto827** · 10-02-12, 02:05 AM

I am new to sports betting for profit/value vs. thinking I know more than the people who set the lines and just doing it for fun, so be warned this may come across as dumb.

Anyhow, my view on the topic.

As others have stated you have to consider all books as one, and realize a net profit, not a net loss and a net gain for each book separately.

Given a small sample size, it is highly likely that you win at one more than the other. But calculating a true rate of return on a single bet is close to impossible, what you say is 85% likely, my research may show 82% and that can turn the EV from net +5% to a -5% net. Unless your research is great and you have found a way to "beat the system" you will lose in the long run taking only one side. You are hedging the bet to guarantee a win, yes it is smaller but it is a win none the less.

There are times that taking the other side is a mistake to create an arbitrage bet, if there is reason that the odds have swung in your favor then it may be against your best interest to hedge your bet.
For example, lets say you get team A at 5-1 in the final four to win it all (hypothetically they have a 25% chance here). If team A and B advance to the final and Both teams are now -110, you theoretically have an even money shot (50/50) at 5-1 odds, so throwing those favorable odds away is not the best financial decision.

Sorry that got wordy but wanted to get a point across, there are times that hedging (sorry if that's the wrong term but that's what I call an arbitrage bet) is the wrong decision from an EV standpoint, but on a single game where the odds are likely not too much in your favor, you would be more likely to see a net gain by hedging your bet.

**Jubeibeats** · 10-02-12, 07:01 AM

Originally posted by sayhey69

no idea what the bolded means

that wont happen if you are hedging the other side?

The bold bit was just my terrible english, I meant the Bet that was talked about, sans scalp with Pinnacle.

On your 2nd point, yes probably will, the scalpers have been making sure of that for years already, and now everyman and his wife is blindly playing line differences, so it will probably happen a bit quicker.

Forget my drivel about that though, the original problem comes down to risk reward and how much it is worth to you, whether you scalp or play comes down to that decision. Was just making the point that some people work better under different circumstances, like not having to sweat plays that you didnt do your own work on.

There is a lot of assuming being done about pinnacle, which I am not disputing, but I would like to see some real hard evidence of plays, with line data, when the bet was placed, what sports etc etc. Never ever seen anyone produce some sort of breakdown like that, I just see people saying that pinnacle line is the word! There is some risk attached to that.

That scalp, no risk ever.

Each have their merits, each are +EV. The scalp is certain as certain can be, the bet has some uncertainty attached to it, whatever level that is.

**sayhey69** · 10-02-12, 01:03 PM

Originally posted by Jubeibeats

Forget my drivel about that though, the original problem comes down to risk reward and how much it is worth to you, whether you scalp or play comes down to that decision. Was just making the point that some people work better under different circumstances, like not having to sweat plays that you didnt do your own work on.

sorry i thought we were concerned with maximizing profits. once you bring in utility everything else goes out the window. i have a friend who maximizes his utility by betting his entire roll, another one that maximizes his utility by not betting at all and infinitely many that do every option in between. can they all be right? should i give a shit about their choices when my only goal is to maximize profit/br growth?

There is a lot of assuming being done about pinnacle, which I am not disputing, but I would like to see some real hard evidence of plays, with line data, when the bet was placed, what sports etc etc. Never ever seen anyone produce some sort of breakdown like that, I just see people saying that pinnacle line is the word! There is some risk attached to that.

That scalp, no risk ever.

Each have their merits, each are +EV. The scalp is certain as certain can be, the bet has some uncertainty attached to it, whatever level that is.

bolded is false as has already been covered in this thread. and one option is more +ev

**Inspirited** · 10-02-12, 03:47 PM

I'm guessing he is assuming no risk of cancellation.

**Sawyer** · 10-02-12, 04:56 PM

Definetely. You must be sure your wagers won't be cancelled so stay away from obivious error/loose lines. Even Pinnacle (the most reliable bookmaker on earth) can void a bet if line/odd is wrong. Any surebet up to %5-6 is okay though..but if you spot a %20-30 crazy surebet, then you better be careful, it may be a loose line.

As long as you work with a reliable bookie (some books are very very weird, they can cancel your wagers, close your account etc) and stay away from obivious error/loose lines, you won't have any problem.

Many books don't tolerate arbitrage players but there's some "secret" ways to camouflage your action..Shhhhhh!

Another option is,

You can create "freebets" when making arbitrage.

Let's say Hereford Gangbangers are 2,07 in x bookie. York Masturbators are 2,00 at Pinnacle. You bet 1000$ on York Masturbators and 1000$ on Hereford Gangbangers. If your bet at pinnacle wins, you lose nothing. You win nothing either..if Hereford Gangbangers win, you make 70$ profit. You would win 34.40$ no matter which side wins by hedging both sides. The choice is up to you.

Have fun with arbitrage

**stevex** · 10-02-12, 05:13 PM

Not possible in the U.S. any more...

**Jubeibeats** · 10-02-12, 06:56 PM

Originally posted by Inspirited

I'm guessing he is assuming no risk of cancellation.

Of course I am, I do my work and due dilligence, so I only bet and play with books that I know wont pull that on me. I know what a bad line is and what an off line is, and play accordingly, never had a play cancelled on a scalp, ever.

**Jubeibeats** · 10-02-12, 07:00 PM

Originally posted by sayhey69

sorry i thought we were concerned with maximizing profits. once you bring in utility everything else goes out the window. i have a friend who maximizes his utility by betting his entire roll, another one that maximizes his utility by not betting at all and infinitely many that do every option in between. can they all be right? should i give a shit about their choices when my only goal is to maximize profit/br growth?

bolded is false as has already been covered in this thread. and one option is more +ev

Okay, tell me what the +EV is on both of them. Tell me how you can be 100% certain the Pinnacle line is the exact true line? You cannot tell me what the +EV is on that bet. Who is to say that bet is really +/-152. Thats why a little utility comes in.

**sayhey69** · 10-02-12, 08:36 PM

no one ever said the fair line is +/-152

**Jubeibeats** · 10-02-12, 10:07 PM

So then how can you tell how much EV you have?

Your correct no-one did say it, I took it that this was what the thread was about, using the pinnacle line as your guide to place bets. I picked the mid point of their line to be the fairest true line.

How are we finding out what the + EV is? What is your view on the fair line? Care to give a value?

**hutennis** · 10-02-12, 10:47 PM

Originally posted by Jubeibeats

So then how can you tell how much EV you have?

Your correct no-one did say it, I took it that this was what the thread was about, using the pinnacle line as your guide to place bets. I picked the mid point of their line to be the fairest true line.

How are we finding out what the + EV is? What is your view on the fair line? Care to give a value?

Not that it is a point, but 152 would not be a fairest true line.
149 would be.

As to the point, again, with an assumption that there is no risk of cancellation and pinny is a benchmark (reasonable), it all comes down to a very simple arithmetic. I gave an example of it in a beginning of this thread and it is the way to approach the problem.

Maximum single bet size is calculated using BR figure and whatever fraction of Kelly you are comfortable with and then EV dollars of that bet
are compared to EV dollars of full size arbitrage. Whichever method yields more $$ is the one to use.
Really simple, is not it?

**sayhey69** · 10-03-12, 12:35 AM

theres no reason the fair line is the midpoint. in the example the pinny line is at -164/+140. so the fair line would be between +/- 140-164 assuming pinny is efficient. which is a good assumption in a major market.

**Sawyer** · 10-10-12, 04:48 AM

Another Example

Got Niculescu-Ivanovic U19½ Games at -110 in a local and Over 19½ is +149 at Pinnacle. It's a %8.09 surebet. Under 19½ is -184 at Pinnacle. No need to be a rocket scientist to understand you will make profit no matter over long haul if you pick a -184 pinnacle line at -110.

**u21c3f6** · 10-10-12, 05:34 AM

Originally posted by Sawyer

Another Example

Got Niculescu-Ivanovic U19½ Games at -110 in a local and Over 19½ is +149 at Pinnacle. It's a %8.09 surebet. Under 19½ is -184 at Pinnacle. No need to be a rocket scientist to understand you will make profit no matter over long haul if you pick a -184 pinnacle line at -110.

Will you be wagering the limit at your local @-110?

Joe.

**Sawyer** · 01-04-13, 10:43 AM

This thread was old but results keep justifying me.

December 2012

Non-Pinnacle Side

RISK	P/L
500 €	475 €
2.600 €	2.470 €
600 €	480 €
200 €	-200 €
600 €	-600 €
130 €	136,50 €
1.013,36 €	304 €
198,36 €	-198,36 €
207 €	-207 €
215 €	-215 €
260 €	382,20 €
500 €	-500 €
900 €	828 €
200 €	-200 €
600 €	-600 €
250 €	262,50 €
1.293 €	-1.293 €
500 €	-500 €
257,18 €	-257,18 €
231,46 €	162 €
290 €	500,83 €
1.200 €	916,80 €
100 €	52,10 €
2.200 €	688,60 €
601 €	181,00 €
901,30 €	-901,30 €
713,74 €	249,81 €
961 €	-961 €
1.200 €	1.320 €
318 €	-318 €
500 €	460 €

2.000 €	-2.000 €
342,76 €	428,45 €
368,54 €	-368,64 €
1.013,70 €	-1.013,70 €
1.500 €	-1.500 €
318 €	283 €
250 €	227,50 €


477 €	434 €
380 €	460 €
349 €	314,10 €
1.000 €	984,50 €
850 €	357 €
150 €	136,50 €
620 €	-620 €

900 €	-900 €
908,50 €	0
2.243,00 €	-2.243 €
1.000 €	250 €

265 €	-265 €
561,55 €	140,39 €
912,75 €	-912,75 €
1.900 €	-1.900 €
250 €	227,50 €
240 €	-240 €
380 €	346 €
50 €	47 €
470 €	-470 €
271 €	257 €

900 €	-900 €
960 €	-960 €
208 €	443,25 €
205 €	436,85 €
250 €	250 €
640 €	160 €
300 €	282 €
358 €	497,62 €
718 €	574,40 €
660 €	165 €
1.296,30 €	777,78 €
450 €	270 €
1.300 €	1.950 €
720 €	720
2.033 €	-2.033 €
210 €	321,30 €
200 €	300 €
740 €	496 €
1.500 €	-1.500 €
1.300 €	949 €
600 €	-600 €
1.250 €	1.000 €
980 €	117,60 €
201 €	182,91 €
500 €	150
1.098 €	878,40 €
300 €	-300 €
1.250 €	1.125 €
650 €	227,50 €
800 €	291,20 €
1.500 €	-1.500 €
750 €	262,50 €
1.250 €	500
1.000 €	-1.000 €
X	X
1.100 €	900 €
380 €	-380 €
268 €	-268 €
940 €	347,80 €
1.288 €	644 €
1.000 €	-1.000 €
2.000 €	800 €
510 €	255 €
2.800 €	-2.800 €
342 €	-342 €
600 €	545,40 €
440 €	400 €
170 €	-170 €
400 €	363,60 €

1.250 €	712,50 €
647,40 €	401,40 €
647,40 €	401,40 €
401,40 €	602,10 €

400 €	363,60 €
800 €	727,20 €
500 €	454,50 €
750 €	681,75 €
240 €	-240 €
700 €	537 €
301,60 €	250,38 €
1.766,48 €	-1.766,48 €
702 €	245,70 €

1.060 €	710,20 €
690 €	-690 €
880 €	-880 €
860,58 €	-860,58 €
920 €	837,20 €
597,33 €	-597,33 €

1.297 €	1.167,30 €
729 €	-729 €
750 €	-750 €
750,75 €	397,90 €
2.000 €	200 €
420 €	381,80 €
1.250 €	-1.250 €
85 €	77,26 €
622 €	-622 €
300,00 €	-300,00 €
408,38 €	89,84 €
1.500 €	0
1.000 €	1.450 €
497 €	149,10 €
206 €	-206 €
219 €	-219 €
214,30 €	-214,30 €
1.842,33 €	1.473,86 €
1.008 €	-1.008 €

1.029 €	-1.029 €

1.100 €	-1.100 €

960 €	872,64 €
1.072,16 €	375,25 €
427,35 €	149,57 €

900 €	-900 €
800 €	-800 €
1.500 €	1.380 €
1.136,75 €	329,65 €
2.266,41 €	2.085 €
500 €	300 €
244 €	-244 €
490 €	441 €
549 €	-549 €
1.752,00 €	-1.752 €
150 €	0
721 €	-721 €

150 €	127,50 €
3.021,36 €	2.266 €
401 €	-401 €

2.564,10 €	1.846,15 €
2.350,43 €	1.692,31 €
234 €	-234 €
228 €	-228 €
1.500 €	1.800 €
448,54 €	-448,54 €
1.405,44 €	-1.405,44 €
447,20 €	-447,20 €
449,55 €	323,70 €
851,80 €	-851,80 €




1.873,14 €	1.498,51 €
2.638,30 €	791,50 €

260 €	234 €
840 €	763,56 €
894,76 €	850 €
341,47 €	307,32 €
400 €	348 €
840 €	-840 €
648,80 €	584 €
1.742,55 €	1.655,42 €
1.000 €	1.000 €
1.000 €	1.000 €


480 €	432 €
886 €	-886 €
720,34 €	972,46 €
215,00 €	322,00 €
285 €	-285 €
250 €	227,50 €
500 €	-500 €
600 €	-600 €
1.267,43 €	-1.267,43 €
1.606 €	1.477,52 €
485 €	-485 €

717,30 €	394,51 €
717,30 €	394,51 €
738,40 €	406,12 €
759,50 €	417,72 €
371,30 €	-371,30 €
6.114 €	611,40 €
801,70 €	240,51 €
2.532,00 €	759,60 €
1.461,00 €	1.461 €
1.351,35 €	-1.351,35 €
1.689 €	1.689 €
760 €	760 €
3.300 €	-3.300 €
1.520 €	-1.520 €
701 €	981,40 €
705,42 €	-705,42 €
6.334,46 €	4.244 €
1.773,65 €	1.596,28 €
1.731,42 €	-1.731,42 €
1.773,65 €	-1.773,65 €
154,70 €	-154,70 €
647,80 €	-647,80 €

886,82 €	798,14 €
929 €	696,75 €
253,40 €	233,12 €
253,40 €	-235,40 €
633,44 €	202,70 €
2.128,40 €	1.553,73 €
591,21 €	431,58 €
4.096,28 €	-4.096,28 €
2.000 €	-2.000 €
1.816 €	1.543,60 €
1.068,41 €	908,15 €
1.773,64 €	1.596,28 €
1.976,56 €	1.877,73 €
212,84 €	478,90 €
205 €	461,25 €
190 €	304 €
196 €	313,60 €
210 €	472,50 €
193 €	308,80 €
452 €	393,24 €
548 €	400 €
539 €	393,47 €
610,50 €	488,40 €
550 €	440 €
425,60 €	-425,60 €
864,32 €	864,32 €
989 €	247,25 €
1.351,35 €	-1.351,35 €
371,73 €	464,66 €
447,25 €	-447,25 €
1.885,23 €	1.489,33 €
1.417,72 €	-1.417,72 €
920 €	239,20 €
220,67 €	-220,67 €

370,30 €	925,75 €
917 €	-917 €
1.730 €	467,10 €
1.601,35 €	1.249 €
2.010 €	985 €
708 €	-708 €

2.124,15 €	1.763 €
968 €	774,40 €
1.094,30 €	875,44 €

2.458 €	-2.458 €
840 €	2.478 €

1.055 €	379,80 €
1.071,73 €	-1.071,73 €
353,58 €	1.113,80 €
5.165 €	-5.165 €
300 €	231 €
431,84 €	-431,84 €
855,20 €	-855,20 €
438,20 €	407,52 €
230 €	202,40 €
120 €	105,60 €

592,72 €	237 €
230,31 €	-230,31 €
431,83 €	414,55 €
863,67 €	829,12 €
1.692,80 €	677,12 €
613,46 €	233,11 €
1.632,10 €	1.583,14 €
1.990 €	-1.990 €
1.312,44 €	-1.312,44 €
849,28 €	815,30 €
2.368,67 €	686,91 €
942,40 €	414,65 €
264 €	224,40 €
257 €	218,45 €
250 €	225 €
250 €	-250 €
158 €	143,78 €
855,20 €	-855,20 €
889 €	-889 €
X	X
1.300,00 €	1.248 €
438 €	407,34 €
1.311,33 €	1.193,31 €
1.732,23 €	1.593,65 €
440 €	404,80 €
641 €	205,12 €
1.284,68 €	423,94 €

850,25 €	425,12 €
622 €	435,40 €
622 €	435,40 €
1.274,50 €	892,15 €
850 €	-850 €

1.282 €	423,06 €
1.020 €	700,74 €
1.700 €	1.615 €
1.659 €	1.576 €
657 €	-657 €
673 €	673 €
42 €	44,26 €
1.086 €	999,12 €
1.709 €	-1.709 €

1.755,50 €	1.457 €
1.701 €	-1.701 €
677 €	-677 €
592,20 €	-592,20 €
16,92 €	-16,92 €
169,50 €	169,50 €
211,86 €	169,49 €
1.949,00 €	-1.949 €
428 €	419,44 €
627,11 €	-627,11 €
646,18 €	200,32 €
423,73 €	-423,73 €
430 €	-430 €

440,68 €	405,42 €
444,91 €	-444,91 €
1.000 €	-1.000 €
860,17 €	266,65 €
995,76 €	916,10 €

445,00 €	133,50 €
600,84	246,34 €
423,73 €	360,17
312,71 €	250,16 €
1.720 €	1.427,60 €
1.881,35 €	-1.881,35 €
1.262,71 €	-1.262,71 €
1.440,67 €	1.872,87 €

Total Profit: 30,768€

Pinnacle Side

c	457,74 €	-457,74 €
2,09	2.426 €	-2.426 €
2,34	462,00 €	-462 €
1,98	227,30 €	227,30 €
2,38	454 €	626,52 €
2,04	130,00 €	-130 €
4,85	271,62 €	-271,62 €
1,862	266,32 €	229,56 €
1,8	287,36 €	229,88 €
1,751	307 €	230,55 €
1,75	367 €	-367 €
2,23	431 €	-431 €
2,2	786 €	-786 €
2,21	174 €	210,54 €
2,13	535,21 €	604,79 €
2,07	248 €	-248 €
2,074	1.034,50 €	-1.034,50 €
2,02	483 €	492,66
2,16	231 €	268 €
2,56	153,70 €	-153,70 €
1,61	438,85 €	-438,85 €
2,5	847,20 €	-847,20 €
X	X	X
7,45	506 €	-506 €
19,29	181 €	-181 €
5,52	210 €	949,20 €
4,11	234,44 €	-234,44 €
4,18	311 €	989 €
2,05	1.230 €	-1.230 €
2,21	269 €	325,50 €
2,2	436,36 €	-436,36 €

2,48	1.404 €	2.078 €
1,917	402,30 €	-402,30 €
1,847	450 €	381,15 €
2,68	624 €	1.048,32 €
2,68	933 €	1.567,44 €
2,25	267,00 €	-267 €
2,15	222 €	0 €


2,15	424 €	-424 €
1,917	445 €	-445 €
2,14	311 €	-311 €
2,18	910 €	-910 €
5,64-12,12	312 €	-312 €
2,13	134,50 €	-134,50 €
4,25-6,51	416,37 €	651,20 €

2,12	811 €	908,32 €
3,73	353,20 €	0
3,25	1.033,40 €	2.325,15 €
5,5	227,27 €	-227,27 €

2,15	230,13 €	264,65 €
5,98	117,40 €	-117,40 €
3,11	441 €	930,51 €
3,21	890 €	1.967 €
2,14	223,13 €	-223,13 €
2,18	210,27 €	248,12 €
2,2	330 €	-330 €
1,961	50 €	-50 €
2,13	421,50 €	476,30 €
2,08	248,43 €	-248,43 €

3,17	436 €	946,12 €
4,95 & 7,79	491,60 €	1002,02
1,555	414,65 €	-414,65 €
1,555	417,62	-417,62 €
2,24	223 €	-223 €
6,41	125 €	-125
2,07	281,15	-281,15 €
1,757	487 €	-487 €
2,32	557 €	-557 €
5,5	150 €	-150
2,9	721 €	-721 €
2,99	241 €	-241 €
1,763	1.844 €	-1.844 €
2,17	664 €	-664 €
3,74	761 €	2.085,14 €
1,77	300 €	-300 €
1,884	263 €	-263 €
2,61	473,50 €	-473,50 €
1,84	1.875 €	1.575 €
2,51	896 €	-896 €
4,61	169,20 €	610,81 €
2,43	926 €	-926 €
9,93	110,53 €	-110,53 €
2,13	180 €	-180 €
6,57	99 €	-99
2,43	813 €	-813 €
2,29	250,21 €	322,77 €
2,24	1.060 €	-1.060 €
4,36	201,26 €	-201,26 €
4,36	250 €	-250 €
1,98	1.591 €	1.559 €
11,60 & 6,30	248,35 €	-248,35 €
3,65	479,45 €	-479,45 €
2,15	773,70 €	890 €
2,11	116 €	128,76 €
2,33	858,28 €	-858,28 €
2,18	333 €	393 €
2,2	231,50 €	278 €
4,05	318 €	-318 €
3,2	604 €	-604 €
2,12	905,66 €	1.014,34 €
3,77	743 €	-743 €
3,05	250,80 €	-250,80 €
1,869	3.221,00 €	2.799 €
1,699	553,56 €	387 €
2,12-2,17	537 €	-537 €
2,19	384 €	-384 €
2,16	150 €	174 €
2,11	362 €	-362 €

8,12-4,60	668,31 €	-668,31 €
2,75	381,40 €	-381,40 €
2,8	347,56 €	-347,56 €
3,27	307 €	-307 €
3,75	267,60 €	-267,60 €
2,14	357 €	-357 €
2,1	727,23 €	800 €
2,15	444 €	-444 €
2,11	678,55 €	-678,55 €
2,1	228,57 €	251,43 €
2,41-2,47	492 €	-492 €
2,34	231,40 €	-231,40 €
3,92	613 €	1.790 €
4,22	224,60 €	-224,60 €

2,44	725,50 €	-725,50 €
1,98	766 €	750,68 €
5,16	229 €	952,64 €
5,12	225,31 €	928,28 €
2,14	821,12 €	-821,12 €
5,42	137,76 €	608,90 €

2,06	1.196,55 €	-1.196,55 €
2,12	660 €	739,20 €
2,13	676 €	763,90 €
3,03	379 €	-379 €
11,75	187,23 €	-187,23 €
2,13	376,42 €	-376,42 €
2,13	1.120,30 €	1.266 €
2,11	77 €	-77 €
2,63	425 €	692,75 €
2,52	214,50 €	326 €
6,62	75,25 €	-75,25 €
6,16 & 15,55	448,75 €	0
1,746	1.404 €	-1.404 €
4,99	129,00 €	-129 €
2,01	229 €	231,30 €
1,87	263,50 €	229,24 €
1,418	544 €	227,40 €
2,47	1.343 €	-1.343 €
11,55	123 €	1.297,65 €
5,52	259,30 €	-259,30 €
11,53	126,83 €	1.335,52 €
5,52	264,70 €	-264,70 €
10,99	142,12 €	1.420 €
5,44	287,13	-287,13 €
2,16	848,44 €	-848,44 €
4,34	333,50 €	-333,50 €
4,29	134,50 €	-134,50 €

2,18	788,11 €	930 €
2,05	765 €	803,25 €
2,2	1.309 €	-1.309 €
6,4 & 18,1	310,00 €	-310 €
2,52	1.727 €	-1.727 €
2,87	278,75 €	-278,75 €
2,08	230 €	248,4
2,16	431 €	0
2,49	375 €	558,75 €
2,2	1553	1.863,60 €
1,729	212,55 €	0
2,13	677 €	765 €

2,14	130 €	-130 €
2,5	2.115 €	-2.115 €
1,657	581 €	381,72 €

2,52	1.750 €	-1.750 €
2,51	1.611 €	-1.611 €
2,1	228 €	250,80 €
2,05	228 €	239,40 €
1,934	1.706,30 €	-1.706,30 €
3,01	228 €	458,28 €
2,02	1.426,32 €	1.454,84 €
2,26	386 €	486,36 €
2,31	334,72 €	-334,72 €
2,2	755 €	906 €




2,36	1.428,66 €	-1.428,66 €
6,72	510,38 €	-510,38 €
16,03	214 €	-214 €
2,15	228 €	-228
2,12	756,40 €	-756,40 €
2,2	793 €	-793 €
2,2	295 €	-295 €
2,21	338,46 €	0
2,12	760 €	851,20 €
2,15	573,35 €	-573,35 €
2,27	1.497 €	-1.497 €
2,24	848 €	-848 €
2,2	864 €	-864 €
2,17	100 €	-100 €

2,17	420,27 €	-420,27 €
X	X	X
X	X	X
1,73	310 €	-310 €
2,16-2,20	252 €	293,36 €
2,1	226,41 €	-226,41 €
2,16	442 €	512,72 €
2,17	528 €	617,76 €
2,11-2,07	1.203,57 €	1.331,70 €
2,18	1.415 €	-1.415 €
2,25	421 €	526,25 €

2,92	377,85 €	-377,85 €
2,94	377,85	-377,85 €
3,16	377,85	-377,85 €
3,03	377,85 €	-377,85 €
2,71	226 €	386,46 €
13,5	498 €	-498 €
4,61	226,70 €	-226,70 €
5,08	648 €	-648 €
2,21	1.322,00 €	-1.322 €
2	1.385,13 €	1.385,13 €
2,18	1.550 €	-1.550 €
2,18	697 €	-697 €
2,85	1.933 €	3.576 €
2,09	1.477 €	1.610 €
1,775	948 €	-948 €
2,93	378 €	729,54 €
2,82	3.751 €	-3.751 €
2,26	1.491 €	-1.491 €
2,16	1.563 €	1.813,08 €
2,28	1.478 €	1.891,84 €
2,21	133 €	160,93 €
2,25	561,42 €	701,77 €

2,19	770 €	-770 €
2,43	669 €	-669 €
2,16	225,22 €	-225,22 €
2,16	225,22 €	261,25 €
4,22	198 €	-198 €
2,43	1.516 €	-1.516 €
2,43	421 €	-421 €
2,25	3.370 €	4.212,50 €
2,09	1923,2	2.096,29 €
2,35	1.430 €	-1.430 €
2,25	878,50 €	-878,50 €
2,2	1.532 €	-1.532 €
2,14	1.801 €	-1.801 €
1,49	464,24 €	-464,24 €
1,518	439 €	-439 €
1,854	266 €	-266 €
1,806	282 €	-282 €
1,497	457 €	-457 €
1,826	275 €	-275 €
2,23	379 €	-379 €
2,5	379 €	-379 €
2,46	379 €	-379 €
2,39	460 €	-460 €
X	X	X
X	X	X
2,15	804 €	924,60 €
6,8	182 €	-182 €
1,84	1.748 €	1.468,32 €
X	X	X
X	X	X
X	X	X
X	X	X
X	X	X
X	X	X

X	X	X
X	X	X
5,26	417,70 €	-417,70 €
2,53	1.127,00 €	-1.127 €
3,05	981 €	-981 €
2,09	718 €	782,62 €

2,31	1.685 €	-1.685 €
2,43	717 €	-717 €
2,41	817,30 €	-817,30 €

X	X	X
X	X	X

4,05	354,30 €	-354,30 €
X	X	X
X	X	X
4,6	1.493 €	5.375 €
2,34	227 €	-227 €
2,2	400 €	480 €
2,2	755 €	906 €
2,2	384,40 €	-384,40 €
2,17	200 €	-200 €
2,53	89,16 €	-89,16 €

X	X	X
X	X	X
2,14	395,50 €	-395,50 €
2,15	791 €	-791 €
3,85	615 €	-615 €
3,98	212,70 €	-212,70 €
2,18	1.475 €	-1.475 €
2,17	1.743 €	2.039,31 €
2,18	1.162 €	1.371,16 €
2,15	774,22 €	-774,22 €
6,02	508 €	-508 €
3,59	378 €	-378 €
2,16	226 €	-226 €
2,2	222 €	-222,00 €
2,09	226,86 €	-226,86 €
2,13	223 €	252 €
2,16	140 €	-140 €
2,1	806,33 €	886,96 €
4	424,50 €	1.273,50 €
4,76	357 €	-357 €
2,15	1.185 €	-1.185 €
2,18	388 €	-388 €
2,26	1.108,24 €	-1.108,24 €
2,2	1.512 €	-1.512 €
2,2	384 €	-384 €
4,48	189 €	-189 €
4,48	381,38 €	-381,38 €

3,38	377,32 €	-377,32 €
2,8	378 €	-378 €
2,8	378 €	-378 €
X	X	X
X	X	X

4,51	378 €	-378 €
2,66	647 €	-647 €
2,05	1512	-1.512 €
2,03	1700	-1.700 €
X	X	X
X	X	X
2,25	34,28 €	-34,28 €
2,25	927 €	-927 €
2,19	1.512,40 €	1.799,75 €

2,22	1.510 €	-1.510 €
1,781	1.882,20 €	1.470 €
1,9	837 €	753,30 €
1,847	605 €	512,43 €
1,73	211,50 €	154,40 €
2,48	136,70 €	-136,70 €
2,54	150,13 €	-150,13 €
4,65	545 €	1.989 €
2,21	383 €	-383 €
4,1	206,50 €	640,15 €
4,65	182 €	-182 €
4,1	141,60 €	439 €
2,11	401,46 €	445,62 €

2,33	363,13 €	-363,13 €
4,2	145	464 €
2,2	863,63 €	1.036,35 €
5,17	218 €	-218 €
2,2	869 €	-869 €

5,08	113,85 €	-113,85 €
3,8	223 €	-223 €
2,25	384,40 €	-384,40 €
2,41	233,55 €	-233,55 €
2,32	1.356,72 €	-1.356,72 €
2,3	1.497 €	1.946 €
2,29	1.009 €	1.301,61 €
1,892	1.751,34 €	-1.751,34 €

Total Profit: -17218€

30,768 - 17218 = 13550€

+13550€ Net Profit if you covered all your surebets at Pinnacle. +30,768€ Profit if you don't cover your arbitrage action at Pinnacle side.

**u21c3f6** · 01-04-13, 11:11 PM

Sawyer, Were all of your non-Pinnacle wagers at the max allowed? If not, then your strategy is not optimal. You would actually have more profit by hedging at least some if not all of your bankroll if limits allowed (assuming you would get paid and not cancelled).

Your example is saying that you would wager the same amount on a wager that could lose as you would on a sure thing. I would like to think that everyone would agree that this does not make any sense.

I don't have any problem if you only want to wager on one side, but your presentation is misleading and your premise is incorrect.

Joe.

**Miz** · 01-05-13, 12:06 AM

When you spot off market numbers elsewhere, your numbers seem to indicate (and it is reasonable to think) that the +EV side is the off number rather than pinnacle line, making your pinny bet more likely to be the -EV bet of the two bets you place. But I think the trend you've seen with having to balance out your accounts, as well as the numbers you posted suggest that you may consider simply picking off the off-market numbers alone going forward? Do you plan to change your approach at all?

I also understand the risk free preference of some people, and their goals of minimizing risk, versus maximizing growth. I personally don't arb, but use models to identify +EV plays.

**pellumb341** · 01-05-13, 07:58 AM

Sawyer , GL in your arber life and enjoy it as long as it is possible

I am an (ex?!) arber , i understand everything you say and you are 100% correct.I don't know why people posting in this thread find it difficult to understand / believe it.Maybe the reason is that they have never arbed and have zero experience.

I have arbed with online world wide bookies and the conclusion is the same : Long term balance in ASIANS bookies is negative , and Long term balance in EUROPEANS bookies is pozitive.

**pellumb341** · 01-05-13, 08:08 AM

Like you have said ,long term balance at Pinnacle is and will be forever negative.

So, if you don't mind , i would give you an advice : Wager at Pinnacle the amount that break you even (hope i have said it correctly)

EXAMPLE

Over 2.5 @ 2.10 ( local )
Under 2.5 @ 2.00 (pinnacle)

Put 1 unit at your local ---> 1 * 2.10 = 2.1 units
Put 1 unit at pinnacle ----> 1 * 2.00 = 2 units

Outcome: over 2.5 ---> +0.1 profit
under 2.5 ----> break even

So this strategy reduces your losses at Pinnacle.

**u21c3f6** · 01-05-13, 09:45 AM

I am having difficulty trying to write a response that doesn't appear insulting. The reading comprehension of some posters is incredibly weak. In addition, trying to explain this is like trying to teach someone algebra and then realize that they don't really understand multiplicaton and division and you are not even sure if they understand addition and subtraction.

Which do you prefer:

A) One bank account that goes from $100 to $150 in one month or

B) Two bank accounts, one which goes from $100 to $200 and the other goes from $100 to $75 in one month?

Joe.

Edit: Please note that the starting balances are not to be considered, the point is that A produces a $50 profit whereas B produces a $75 profit even though the second account goes negative. Sawyer's example is not valid because anyone that knows how to hedge and/or arb would not do it the way he is describing.

Joe.

**pellumb341** · 01-05-13, 01:52 PM

A) One bank account that goes from $100 to $150 in one month or

B) Two bank accounts, one which goes from $100 to $200 and the other goes from $100 to $75 in one month?

Joe.

Edit: Please note that the starting balances are not to be considered, the point is that A produces a $50 profit whereas B produces a $75 profit even though the second account goes negative. Sawyer's example is not valid because anyone that knows how to hedge and/or arb would not do it the way he is describing.

Joe.

Mate , you are wrong. A produces more than B and that is all Sawyer wants to mean in this thread.I guarantee this based on my own experience.

B) Two bank accounts, one which goes from $100 to $200 and the other goes from $100 to $75 in one month?

BOLD part is your mistake , and i will correct it.
It goes from $100 to 25$ ,so B will produce $25 profit ,which is lower than A = $50