youk is in for a career year
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Mark Reynolds is our present day Dave Kingman.
He'll either hit a home run or strike out.Comment -
Angels Health Update #1:
Tommy HansonTightness in his right triceps forced him to leave before the start of the 4th inning in Wednesday's spring training game. Please excuse me when I'm not too encouraged by this, even after Tommy Hanson says he's "One-hundred percent" fine, will be ready for his next scheduled start, and sees no reason why he shouldn't be good to go for his regular season opener. Hanson's high-effort delivery and struggles with health have been well documented. His K/BB ratio was just barely above the 2/1 threshold for league average starting pitchers in 2012, his 4.48 ERA and 4.24 xFIP were career worst's, and his 1.5 MPH decline in avg. fastball velocity from 2011 to 2012 had already raised some red-flags.
Angels Health Update #2: The Great Albert Pujols
Albert Pujols' Health: Sticking with our health theme today, let's look at the great Albert Pujols, who has seen his BB% decline by 8.6%, his K% increase by 2.2%, and his ISO decrease by 100 points since 2009. So even before his slow recovery from off-season knee surgery in his right-knee and his recent bout with plantar fasciitis in his left foot, I was already a bit bearish on him for 2013. There are some legitimate concerns in Angels' camp that he won't be ready for the start of the season, and even if he is, that he won't be close to 100% by then. The good news is this is Albert Pujols, who established such an insanely high baseline that his numbers are still elite despite declining skills. The bad news is that you still have to spend a first round pick to get him, something that I strongly advise against.
Pirates Back-End-Of-The-Rotation Update
For now, it looks as though the primary competition for the Pirates' fifth starter is between Jeff Locke and Kyle McPherson. McPherson got rocked during Wednesday's start against the Braves, giving up 10 hits and 8 ERs in 4 2/3 innings of work brining his spring ERA to 8.31 vs. Jeff Locke's 3.12. While Locke's minor league track record and solid K/BB rate suggest he could be a sneaky add in extremely deep leagues, all of this to me suggests that Gerrit Cole will be up sooner rather than later. The top prospect, who was recently one of six cut from the roster, posted solid spring numbers against quality opponents (according to Baseball Reference, 9.2 on a scale from 1-10, so it wasn't just against fellow-minor leaguers). He could be this year's Matt Harvey.
Pirates Back-End-Of-The-Pen Update
Jason Grilli is coming off of a stellar 2012, where he boasted an insane 36.9% K rate (25% is solid for a closer). This was driven in part by his 1.2 MPH gain in avg. fastball velocity, which is extremely rare for a 36 year old reliever. There's no doubt he has the closer job, and nothing in his spring performance screams caution. However, I advise all Grilli owners to handcuff with Mark Melancon, who finished the final month and a half of 2012 with a .90 ERA, and a 13/1 KK/BB ratio. He looks sharper that Grilli so far in spring training and is carrying over the confidence he regained towards the end of last year. Grilli has a relatively long leash, but Melancon has closing experience and I wouldn't be surprised to see him gain fantasy relevance in 2013.
Around The League
Andrelton Simmons (SS-ATL): My love for The Dre has been well documented this spring. Fresh off of his stellar performance in the WBC where he went 10 for 30 with 2 HRs, 6 RBI, and 10 R's, The Dre hit two more bombs yesterday. I was bullish on him heading into the season after his impressive 2012 debut. With the leadoff spot his for the taking, I think we're going to see the speed he flashed in the minor leagues. Combine this with his burgeoning power, I could see upwards of 10 HRs, 20 SBs, and 90+ runs. He could be the steal of your draft.
Hanley Ramirez (3B/SS-LAD). HanRam's declining skills during the past three years have made me hesitant to take him early in drafts. He's seen a 1.3% decline in BB% and 4.3% rise in his K% since 2009, while his OPS+ has dropped 36 points to 112 (100 is league average). Now, word out of Dodgers camp is Hanley may miss the first two months of the season after injuring his right thumb during the WBC championship game. MRI results are expected later today, so keep an eye on the situation. While he could only miss a few weeks, the Dodgers appear pessimistic and are expecting to be without him until June. Draft accordingly.
Zack Greinke (SP-LAD): Another potential early round pick in drafts, Greinke has given fantasy owners a scare with talk of elbow inflammation. However, Greinke reportedly pitched a pain-free four-inning minor league start on Wednesday (43 pitches) and is optimistic he could still be ready for opening day. The last time he was in the NL, Greinke posted a stellar 28.1% K rate to go along with a 2.56 xFIP. If this was just a spring-training scare and nothing more, which all indications suggest is the case, moving Greinke back up your boards is justified.
David Wright (3B-NYM): Wright is still on the mend after straining the left-side of his rib-cage and isn't close to returning to the lineup, according to manager Terry Collins. It now appears the best-case scenario for Wright is opening day, and if history is any indication, such injuries tend to take around a month to heal. I'd draft expecting Wright to miss the first 2-3 weeks. However, coming off a rebound 2012 where had boasted an OPS+ of 143 (his highest since 2008) and after hitting .438 in the WBC, I wouldn't knock him down your board too far.
Erasmo Ramirez (SP-SEA): All indications from Mariners camp is that the 22-year old is going to earn a spot at the back-end of the mariners rotation. His most recent outing of 6 innings, 8 hits, 2 ERs, 5 Ks, and 0 BBs added on to an impressive spring where he has only walked 2 batters in 12+ innings of work against quality opponents (8.6 according to Baseball Reference). Ramirez had a 22% k rate and a 4.3% BB rate as a starter last year with a .98 whip and a 3.52 xFIP. He's a sneak play this year late in drafts.
Wade Davis (SP-KC): Davis pitched 4+ innings yesterday in his return to the mound from shoulder soreness that crept up during the first week of March. He gave up 2 hits, 1 ER, 4 BBs, and 2 K's and reported no issues with the shoulder. While I was bullish on Davis going into the season, projecting him to carrying over some of the gains he showed in the bullpen last year (most notably, the 30.6% K% and 93.7 MPH avg. fastball!), moving from the pen to the rotation can be a tricky proposition. I still like Davis to build from last year and to improve upon his last year as a starter, but I'm watching the transition closely.
Jackie Bradley (OF-BOS): With David Ortiz on the shelf, the Red Sox are considered leaving Bradley on the opening day roster. He's hitting a robust .439 this spring, backed by 8 BB's to 5 K's in 51 plate appearances (opponent quality score of 8.1, as per Baseball Reference). Bradley broke out last year, reaching AA and posting a triple slash line of .315/.430/.482 with 9 HR's and 24 SBs in 128 games. He's the real deal and could prove to be a gem for deep-leaguers.
Stephen Drew (SS-BOS): Drew hasn't played in two weeks and is off to see a concussion specialist. While he's seen an improvement in his symptoms, there appear to be some lingering effects, and manager John Farrell indicated that Drew is likely to open the season on the DL. Drew posted his fourth consecutive season with a below league average OPS (OPS+ of 97) after his breakout 2010 (OPS+ 113). Those drafters waiting on SS to draft Drew late should adjust accordingly. And deep leaguers may want to look at Jose Iglesias, who is expected to fill in until Drew returns.
Chad Billingsley (SP-LAD): Billingsley had a pain-free bullpen season after testing his bruised right finger that he injured during bunting drills last year. All systems appear to be a go and he will pitch in a minor league game on Saturday. Billingsley made some sneaky gains last year, decreasing his BB% by 3% and increasing his K% by 2%, and his xFIP of 3.84 suggests that his year wasn't a fluke.
Pablo Sandoval (3B-SF): The Kung Fu Panda is out with a sore right elbow, and tests confirm that it's nerve inflammation. This is on top of a bone spur in the elbow as well. As of today, there is no timetable for his return. The Panda is such a risk/reward type player, and his injury history and performance inconsistencies (OPS+ of 144, 99, 155, and 124 and games played of 153, 152, 117, 108 the past four seasons) are leading me to stay away unless he falls significantly in drafts.
Aroldis Chapman (P-CIN) News out of Cincy is that Chapman is moving back to the bullpen, and will be the team's closer. Broxton takes a big hit as he'll now be the setup guy there.
Trevor Bauer P-CLE Bauer had a sub par spring and the Indians feel that he'll need to work out the kinks before his MLB ready.
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Mike Fiers- P- MIL- Fiers lack of stuff has caused him to be underestimated by many scouts. However, he has consistently struck out more than a batter per inning in his pro career despite the lack of a dominant fastball. Fiers continued this trend last season with his first extended stretch of big league ball even during a late season swoon (7.09 ERA in the last month of the season with an 11.14 K/9 over the same stretch.) That poor finish was due In large part to bad luck (.403 BABIP) and an inordinate number of balls leaving the yard (2.03 HR/9.) Fiers can provide some value above what you'd expect from a back of the rotation starter.
OF Desmond Jennings Entering prime years....we could see a breakout in SBs as he was 31 for 33 last season.Marco Estrada- P- MIL- With the Brewers' rotation all but set, Estrada was trotted out for 2 IP on short rest yesterday. This sets him up to take the second spot in the rotation. Estrada posted a K/9 of 9.30 in 2012, his first season of extended starting in the big leagues. Fantistics' projects Estrada for 180 Ks, a 3.79 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, a solid follow up to his 2012 campaign.
Wei-Yin Chen- P- BAL- Chen worked on building strength during the offseason in an attempt to pitch 200 innings in 2013 and avoid the fade that happened towards the end of 2012. Even with a declining K/9 rate of 6.06 in the final month of the season, Chen posted a stronger K/9 in the second half of the year than the first half. His FB% of 42.1% hurt him, particularly at home where he had a 12.6% HR/FB ratio. Still, as a source of a decent amount of strikeouts and a durable pitcher, Chen projects as a good pick, for likely little cost.
Chris Davis- 1B- BAL- Despite Conor Jackson posting a .378 Grapefruit League average it looks like Davis will be the starting first baseman for the Orioles. Davis played more games at DH and OF than at 1B last year. Expect some regression from his .270 average and 33 homers in 139 games last year, given his .335 BABIP and 25.2% HR/FB ratio. Still , with a projected 28 homers, Davis offers some value from a power position.
Derek Lowe- P- TEX- Non-roster invitee Lowe is getting closer to winning a job with the Rangers. Even though manager Ron Washington denies it, Lowe's performance could warrant consideration for him in the Texas rotation in the unfilled fifth spot. He is unscored upon in 5 IP this spring, including 3 IP last night. The Rangers don't need a fifth starter until April 9th, so if they decide to go Lowe's way he could get an extra start in extended spring training to get him stretched out. Lowe experienced bad luck the past two years, with BABIP marks of .327 and .326. His FIPs of 3.70 and 4.37 are better than his ERAs of 5.05 and 5.11. Given a less extreme amount of luck and his usual GB% of around 60%, Lowe could be a sleeper with the Rangers if he sticks in the rotation.
Ian Kinsler- 2B- TEX- Kinsler went 3-for-3 with a homer, his first of the season, last night. It boosted his Cactus League average above the Mendoza line, to .214. Kinsler has had subpar seasons the past two, as far as average goes and in homers last year. Fantistics projects him to bounce back to a .274 average and a return to the 20/20 club. Since he is staying at 2B those numbers will be more valuable than if he had made a shift to 1B to accommodate Jurickson Profar.
Chase Headley- 3B- SD- Headley broke the tip of his left thumb in a slide into second base on Sunday. He will miss the first two weeks of the regular season. Headley finishes spring training with a .448 average, a good sign for when he returns. The likely replacement at third base for the Padres will be either Logan Forsythe or Jedd Gyorko.
Jonny Gomes- OF- BOS- With David Ortiz almost certainly starting the season on the DL, someone will have to DH for the Red Sox. Experience in that slot is important to manager John Farrell. Gomes leads the cast of possible replacements with 322 career games as a DH. Last season he hit southpaws at a .299 clip, thanks to a .400 BABIP against them. Gomes' homer rate didn't show as heavy a platoon split, with 11 homers in 196 PAs versus lefthanders and 7 long balls in 137 PAs against righthanders.
Ted Lilly- P- LAN- Lilly is officially out of the running for a rotation spot to start the season. A return from shoulder surgery was slowed by illness this spring. Lilly will continue to get some innings with the minor leaguers as he continues to rebuild his strength but his chances to come out of the logjam of starters and get a spot with the Dodgers to begin the season are gone.
Daisuke Matsuzaka- P- CLE- Dice-K wasn't able to successfully battle his way into the Cleveland rotation, but he will stay with the organization at AAA. The Indians are hoping he provides depth in the event of injury to one of their other starters, but given the track record of his career, you shouldn't hope for anything similar. Even his sophomore season of 2008, when he won 18 games and posted a 2.90 ERA had a boost from a .258 BABIP and showed a FIP of 4.03, more in line with the rest of his performances.
Matt Garza- P -CHN- The projections for Garza's return keep getting worse. Manager Dale Sveum says that the target date for Garza's return is May7th but he could be pushed back to the middle of May. He hasn't thrown from a mound since straining his lat last month and hasn't tossed more than 75 feet since then. Garza won't throw from a mound until he gets to the point where he can play catch from 120-150 feet.
Ervin Santana- P- KC- Yesterday Santana looked like the Mr. Hyde part of his 2012 Jekyll and Hyde season. In 4 IP he gave up 6 runs on 10 hits and a walk. Last season Santana looked like he might have turned around a hideous start, posting monthly ERAs of 3.58 and 3.68 in the final two months of the year. However, his FIPs in those months were 5.54 and 5.31 respectively, as he enjoyed BABIPs below .200 in each. Don't expect consistency from him in Kansas City.
Joey Votto- 1B- CIN- Votto has spent this spring clearing away doubts as to whether his power will return after his injury-effected 2012. After 28 Cactus League ABs Votto has two homers and is hitting .393. He will be an offensive powerhouse this season.
Tyler Skaggs- P- ARI- Skaggs won't be bringing his top prospect status to Arizona in the short term. He was sent to the minor league camp yesterday, ending his bid to nail down the fifth spot in the rotation. Skaggs walked 8 in 9 Cactus League IP and will work on getting command of his pitches in the minors before his inevitable return to the big club.
Grant Balfour- RP- OAK- Balfour threw 17 pitches in a minor league game yesterday, recording a strikeout. It was his first game action since undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery a month ago. Balfour is expected to pitch in a Cactus League game tomorrow and get a total of 5 appearances in before the regular season starts. That should keep him on track to have his closer role when the games start to count.
Jason Grilli- RP- PIT- Grilli pitched a perfect inning in his first game action since the World Baseball Classic. He seems set to perform in the closer role. Fantistics' projections have him picking up 34 saves this season which will give him decent value.
OF Dexter Fowler Elevated BHIP (.331) inflated his BA by 30-40 points last season. Has the potential to be that 20/20 guy, and is slowly but surely starting to lift the ball (1.17 GB/FB rate). Improved verses LHP last year, and might be ready for everyday job.
OF Domonic Brown Brown has yet to blossom into the star billing that he was tagged with as a prospect. We do see improvement in his contact rate, which rose to 81% in 187 Abs last season. Additionally his 9.6 XBH% offers promise for the future. However for now, he'll have to prove himself as more than a platoon hitter (.340 SLG LHP) before he gets an everyday gig. : He's had an excellent spring thus far.
OF Drew Stubbs 30% K rate and 72% contact rate stifled his BA...which was doubled down with some bad luck on balls in play verses his career norms. We also saw a significant drop in his XBH%, leaving just his SBs to clamor over. He'll need to reinvent himself this season or face a reduced role.
OF Eric Young Designated as a Utility player, in his 3+ seasons Young has yet to amass more than 200 Abs in any season, but he did hit .316 in his 174 Abs last season. (Albeit his Singles % was very lucky (.323)). Young has 60-70 steal upside as an everyday player, but that's not going to happen unless at least 2 starting OFers go down in the preseason (Tyler Colvin is also ahead of him as the #4 OFer).
OF Franklin Gutierrez A torn pectoral cost him most of 2012. He returned with some decent power verses LHP, but remains a liability verses RHP (4 YR AVG - <.300 SLG). Can't project a breakout until he shows he can hit the majority of pitchers in the league.
OF Gerardo Parra Has ability to be a 15 HR/25 SB guy...but Dbacks continue to designate him as their 4th Offer...limiting his playing time.
OF Giancarlo Stanton May be the most fearsome hitter in baseball with an average 107 bat speed swing on his HRs last season and 417 ft average distance....good reason why 27% of his fly balls went for HRs last year. His 68% contact rate does leave his average at risk however.
OF Hunter Pence Contact rate and batting average took a big hit last season (78% to 72%) as his K% rose from 17 to 21%. 2nd half was a disaster 8HRs/.219 BA. HR/FB rate to take hit in Pac Bell.
OF Ichiro Suzuki Can still steal 30-35 with a full time gig.Comment -
Jeff Karstens will start the season on the DL with a shoulder injury.
I also expect Gerrit Cole to crack the rotation sooner rather than later for my beloved Buccos...Comment -
Minnesota Twins : Justin Morneau - 1BMorneau is having and interesting Spring Training. He is peppering the ball out there, slugging .548 and driving in 11 runs in 42 at-bats, but with just one walk in that span, his OBP sits at just a .279, far below the acceptable norm, especially for a first baseman. In a large ballpark like Target Field, the baseball Gods aren't very forgiving to hitters, so you need to earn your walks while you can. He has been healthy and he has looked to be somewhat close to the guy who won MVP in 2006, but he hasn't played a full season in four years, so the safest bet is to assume he'll miss about 20 or 25 games over the course.
So assuming his strength is at about 90 percent of what it used to be and factoring a 25 game absence for whatever injury he may sustain, here are his projections: .274 BA, 63 runs, 20 HR, 71 RBI, 1 SB in 480 ABs.A respectable stat-line for a respectable, blue-collar player who knows what it takes to put together a successful season. Injuries will be the only true bump in the road for this former All-Star and he should be a nice addition to a fantasy team when healthy.
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What about the Bradley kid for Boston?Comment -
#17
TOP HITTING PROSPECTS
1 Billy Hamilton CIN SS A Appears to be set to open AAA in CF. Should be up by July.
2 Jurickson Profar TEX SS A Hitting just .205, so probably opens in AAA. Won't be there long though.
3 Wil Myers TB OF A Will open in AAA after striking out 10 times in 35 ab. Still love the upside of course.
4 Oscar Taveras STL OF A Solid spring, but will open in AAA and await an injury.
5 Travis d'Arnaud NYM C A .355 with no homers this spring. Will open in AAA and see big league time at some point this year.
7 Christian Yelich MIA OF A- .364 with 5 HR this spring, so his time table may accelerate this year.
8 Mike Zunino SEA C A- Will open in AAA after a 5-for-22 spring. He's the future at catcher.
9 Anthony Rendon WAS 3B A- Will open in AAA a the team is still searching for his LT position in the field.
10 Nick Castellanos DET OF A- Probably winds up as a corner OF. Should see Detroit later this summer.
11 Xander Bogaerts BOS SS A- Still viewed as a shortstop. Bat could get him to the big leagues later this summer.
12 Yasiel Puig LAD OF A- Overreaction? I saw Puig play 4 games live this spring and I was in awe of his natural ability.
13 Jorge Soler CHC OF A- May need another year or two in the minors, but ceiling is high.
17 Jackie Bradley BOS OF B+ Not sure he breaks camp with the club, but he may very well do so with his solid spring.
19 Mike Olt TEX 3B B+ Probably shifts to 1B or OF and comes up around June.
22 Nolan Arenado COL 3B B+ No BB in 40 ab, but hitting .325 with 4 HR and may be close to winning the starting 3B job.
24 Jonathan Singleton HOU 1B B+ Smoking weed gets him a 50-game suspension. Will open in AAA once he returns.
25 Delino DeShields HOU 2B B+ If you can't get Billy Hamilton in your league, here's a pretty good plan B. 101 SB last year.
27 Mason Williams NYY OF B+ Labrum surgery in August and not sure whether his 2013 season will be delayed as a result.
29 Aaron Hicks MIN OF B+ .302 with 4 HR and 3 SB and will be the team's CF this year. Expect some struggles.
30 George Springer HOU OF B+ 4-for-12 with 2 HR this spring. Always helps to make a good first impression.
32 Jedd Gyroko SD 2B B+ Looks like he's the second baseman. Probably hits 6th.
35 Yasmani Grandal SD C B+ 50-game PED suspension obviously hurts, so we may not see him in SD until Jul/Aug.
36 Michael Choice OAK OF B+ Slowed down after a hot start to his spring, but made an impression on the manager.
37 Hak-Ju Lee TB SS B+ Just .176 this spring as questions about his offensive upside persist.
40 Adam Eaton ARI OF B Injury is a tough break, as he was set to compete for NL ROY.
41 Jonathan Schoop BAL SS B 4-for-6 this spring, so he could potentially be a SS or 2B option for BAL later this year.
42 Nick Franklin SEA SS B Will open in AAA. Went on a crazy 6,500 cal/day diet to add bulk. Hopefully he can still stick at SS.
44 Kolten Wong STL 2B B .269 while showing good pop this spring. Could be the team's 2B later this summer.
46 Gary Brown SF OF B Just .219 this spring and has a lot to prove this year in AAA.
48 Brett Jackson CHC OF B Starting to wonder whether he'll be able to overcome the strikeouts.Comment -
Thanks Nash. Looks like he may start season in Boston.Comment -
In my opinion, Jackie Bradley, Jr. has a very bright future ahead of him...Comment -
Roy Halladay, RHP PHI For fantasy owners who drafted Halladay expecting a bounce-back season, the right-hander's spring results have been disheartening to say the least. In 12 Grapefruit League innings, Halladay has allowed 13 hits, seven walks and nine earned runs. His fastball sat at 87-89 mph last Saturday in a minor league start, but he couldn't command it and had 11 of 18 batters reach base against him. Ben Revere, OF PHI Revere's high-contact rate (92.6 percent in 2012) and speed make him a strong No. 2 hitter, but Jayson Stark of ESPN told Mike Missanelli on 97.5 The Fanatic in Philadelphia that Phillies manager Charlie Manuel is planning on hitting Revere eighth. Manuel's reasoning is that Revere can get on base, steal second and have the pitcher bunt him over to third. However, there are more cons than pros for fantasy owners if Revere bats in the eight-hole. He'll have to show more plate discipline, as he won't see nearly as many pitches in the zone as he does as the No. 2 hitter. He'll score fewer runs with the pitcher batting behind him. And he won't get many green lights if he reaches base with two outs because if he gets thrown out, the lineup won't turn over and the pitcher will have to lead off the next inning.Chase Utley, 2B PHI Utley finally has discovered his stroke after a slow start to Grapefruit League play. Over his last 11 games, Utley has 12 hits in 39 at-bats with four homers, two doubles and a 4/4 K/BB. He has raised his spring average from .167 to .270 in that span. Utley hit .256 last season, but that was due in part to a .261 BABIP and a .215 average against left-handers. Utley also hit .187 against lefties in 2011, but prior to that season had always hit them pretty well and actually owns a career average of .270 against them.
Atlanta Braves
Paul Maholm, LHP ATL Maholm walked six batters and allowed five earned over his first 8.1 innings this spring, but he has been impressive since then with an unblemished ERA and a 14/4 K/BB across 17 innings. Maholm had a 4.00 FIP against a 3.67 ERA last season, and he'll have to repeat his 75.7 percent strand rate to come close to that ERA again. Dipping below 70 percent like he did in 2007, 2009 and 2010 would be disastrous for his ERA.
Jonny Venters, LHP ATL Venters was the rare setup man with fantasy value over his first two big league seasons when he threw 171 innings and had a 1.89 ERA and 189 strikeouts. However, he appears to have been overworked. The lefty reliever allowed seven earned runs in 12.1 innings in September 2011 and then dealt with arm injuries last season and finished with just 58.2 innings and a 1.52 WHIP. Now, he has a left elbow sprain and will likely start the season on the DL.
Player Projections Decreasing Value:Around the league
Jonny Venters, Bruce Rondon, Nolan Arenado
Adam Wainwright, RHP STL Cashing in on a five-year, $97.5 million contract Wednesday was Wainwright, who will be entering into his second full season since undergoing Tommy John surgery. In his first season back, the right-hander had a 3.94 ERA, but his FIP was 3.10; the difference of 0.85 was the third-best in all of baseball. Wainwright had a .315 BABIP and a strand rate that was 7.4 percentage points below his career average. Otherwise, his K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 were all in line with his career averages.
Shaun Marcum, RHP NYN Marcum has been suffering from discomfort in his shoulder and neck and has been expected to start the season on the disabled list, but the Mets have a plan in place for the righty to avoid the DL. He will stay back in Florida and throw a minor league game before returning to start the fifth or sixth game of the season. However, the team might just be delaying the inevitable. Marcum unfortunately has dealt with right elbow and shoulder issues in each of the last two springs and threw just 124 innings in 2012, so another DL stint or two seems likely. With a career ERA of 3.76 and a strand rate of 76.3 percent, Marcum is worth owning in all leagues, but don't pay too much for him.
Bryce Harper, OF WAS Harper's inflamed left thumb is the only thing that can slow him down. Harper has reached base in 10 consecutive plate appearances and owns a .476 average in 63 at-bats this spring. The 20-year-old has three homers and nine extra-base hits overall and is slugging .730. He also has swiped five bases. The Nationals outfielder has legitimate potential to finish with 30 homers, 30 steals, 100 RBIs and 100 runs this season. He's also a lock to improve on his 20.1 percent strikeout rate, which will increase his batting average. In his final 141 plate appearances last season, Harper hit .341 with 10 homers and just 26 strikeouts, an 18.4 percent strikeout rate.
Ricky Romero, LHP TOR After walking 10 batters and allowing 17 hits in 13 innings this spring, Romero was demoted to High-A Dunedin to work out his issues. Those issues started last season, when his walk rate skyrocketed from 3.20 BB/9 to 5.22 BB/9 and his K/9 slipped from 7.12 to 6.17. Romero had a 2.92 ERA just two seasons ago, but that was due to a .242 BABIP and a 79.2 percent strand rate. He had a 4.20 FIP that season.
J.A. Happ, LHP TOR Happ will assume the fifth spot in Toronto's rotation and has some upside after posting an 8.92 K/9 (7.71 K/9 in 2011) and a 3.48 BB/9 (4.78 BB/9 in 2011). Happ had some bad luck with a .315 BABIP (career .286 BABIP) and a strand rate that was 3.5 percentage points below his career number. Happ's FIP was 4.01, and he actually struck out 10.26 batters per nine innings in 40.1 frames after joining Toronto from the Houston Astros.
Chris Perez, RHP CLE Perez missed most of spring training with a shoulder injury but returned Tuesday to throw a scoreless frame and appears set to start the season on time. That means Vinnie Pestano will have to wait a little longer to close for Cleveland. Pestano is actually the more valuable reliever for the Indians, as he threw 70 innings and struck out 76 last season to Perez' 57.2 and 59. Batters put the ball in play against Perez 26 percent of the time, compared to 24 percent against Pestano, and Perez had a swing-and-miss percentage of 15, lower than Pestano's 19 percent. But saves are what fantasy owners care about, and Perez had 39 of those to Pestano's two.
Erasmo Ramirez, RHP SEA Ramirez will begin the season in the minors despite pitching to a 3.86 ERA and 10/2 K/BB in 14 innings this spring compared to Blake Beavan's 6.52. Beavan hasn't walked a batter this spring, but he has allowed 29 hits and five homers in 19.2 innings. That is similar to what he has done in his two-year career. In 249.1 big league innings, Beavan has walked just 39 batters, but he has allowed 274 hits, 36 homers and struck out 109 while posting a 4.37 ERA and 4.70 FIP. Ramirez is just 22 years old and had a 3.36 ERA and 48/12 K/BB in 59 innings last season in addition to going 6-3 with a 3.72 ERA and 58/18 K/BB at Triple-A. Don't be surprised if he is up with Seattle before May.
Jeremy Hellickson, RHP TB Hellickson is an interesting case, as sabermetrics don't agree with his success at all. He has been last in baseball in ERA minus FIP in each of the last two seasons with -1.50 in 2012 and -1.49 in 2011. In 402.1 major league innings, he has posted mediocre strikeout and walk rates (6.13 K/9, 3.11 BB/9) and a BABIP of .244. The biggest reasons Hellickson has had success - and with a 3.06 career ERA, he has been highly successful - is his dominance with men on base. His strand rate of 82.7 percent led baseball last season, and before you go predicting regression in 2013, check out his strand rate in 2011: 82 percent, second in baseball. He was at 80 percent in limited action in 2010, 79.7 percent at Triple-A in 2010, and above 80 percent in 152 Double-A innings.
Jacoby Ellsbury, OF BOS While Ellsbury didn't end up requiring an MRI on his injured right heel, the injury should serve as a reminder that he has missed significant time in two of the last three seasons. In 74 games last year, he didn't display the same type of power that he did in 2011 despite having a similar flyball rate. He had a HR/FB of 4.7 percent, which was 12 percentage points lower than 2011. The shoulder injury he suffered in April likely sapped his power somewhat, but Ellsbury had a 4.6 percent HR/FB in 624 at-bats in 2009 and a 7.0 HR/FB in 554 at-bats in 2008. Right now, his 16.7 percent HR/FB in 2011 is the outlier.
Vance Worley, RHP MIN The sorry state of the Twins' pitching staff means that Worley will take the ball on Opening Day. At first glance, he doesn't appear to have much fantasy relevance after posting a 4.20 ERA and 1.51 WHIP last season for the Phillies, but keep in mind he opted to pitch with a bone chip in his right elbow instead of having surgery. He actually owned a 2.92 ERA and 66/25 K/BB over his first 12 starts (74 IP), but he recorded a 5.80 ERA and had a .401 BABIP over his final 11 (59 IP). Worley had a FIP of 3.85, and he will move to pitcher-friendly Target Field this season after putting up a 5.20 ERA at Citizens Bank Park in 2012.
P Yovani Gallardo Gallardo rebounded from a poor 1st half with a 10 Win/3.24 ERA/1.22 WHIP 2nd half. Streaky pitcher, but remains a top 30.
P Yu Darvish Posted solid K/I numbers (1.19), yet his Strand rate (.70) could stand for improvement in 2013...expect his ERA to drop because of it. Wins were inflated by 4 thanks to lots of team run support.
P Zach McAllister McAllister has a decent skill set .88K/I, 2.7 BB/9 rate, and 92 MPH fastball...there's enough there for him to carve out a MLB career...and maybe a backup role in deeper fantasy leagues. HR rate of 12% hurts his outings...and he'll have to figure that out before he steps up.
P Zack Greinke Continues to be a solid top10, once again with 20 quality starts in 2012. Move to LA will lower his FB/HR rates back to the range they were in KC, which will in turn lower his ERA to possibly the low 3's. Late Spring Update: It looks like Greinke will open the season on the DL as his elbow inflammation is a concern. 3/21 Update: Greinke may pitch as early as April 5th. Reports are that there is nothing structurally wrong with the elbow, but it remains a concern.
P Erik Bedard Bedard was simply awful last season, so much so that the Pirates released him in August. His fastball speed has lost 4 MPH over his career.
P Fernandez, Jose Excellent looking prospect who averaged a .92 WHIP/1.76 ERA with 10+ k/9 last season in Single A and A+ still only 20 Years old, but he's a keeper in all aspects. Averages about 93 on the fastball, but it's his control that makes the package complete. He also has a plus changeup. Currently a top 5 MLB pitching prospect, that could see action in the bigs in 2013...but he's more likely earmarked for 2014.
P Taillon, Jameson 2nd overall selection in 2010 draft. The 6-6/225 Taillon averages mid 90's on his fastball, but he's still not ready for the bigs as evidenced by his sub par 70% strand rate over his 2011 and 2012 low minors experience. Has all the tools to make it happen in 2013, but he'll likely have to prove himself first in AA/AAA. Has the ability to be a 1.20 WHIP/low 3s ERA guy down the road. Top 5 pitching prospect.
P Cole, Gerrit The #1 overall pick in 2011 is a 6-4/220 pound right-hander who is built to be a power pitcher. His legs and torso are strong and well-developed. Cole throws a 4-seam that tickles 100, when cruising in the mid-nineties his fastball has outstanding life. He throws a hard-biting slider that changes lanes and drops. His stat line doesn’t show it yet because batters haven’t asked for it yet but his control and command is raw. He still tends to overthrow and lose the zone. Type A+ prospect that will likely make it to the show early in 2013.
P Wheeler, Zack Wheeler throws a mix of fastballs (tops out around 95) and can add or subtract velocity to keep hitters off balance. Considered by us to be a top 10 pitching prospect. Went 12W-8L with a 1.17 WHIP/3.26 ERA with 148 K's in 149 innings between AA/AA last season. What's concerning is his control issues. Last season he averaged over 3.5+ walks/9...which is something he'll need to show improvement with if he wants to be part of the rotation come June. Lots to like here, could develop into a #2/#3 as early as 2014.
P Paxton, James Paxton has an outstanding +1:1 K/Inning ratio, however his 4.5 BB/9 ratio almost assures that he'll have to spend time in AA/AAA working on his command. Not really going to contribute to the averages categories once he's called up, he's one of those guys that's going to be a work in progress.
P Hultzen, Danny Still a top 20 pitching prospect, despite calling apart in AAA last season (7.95 BB/9 rate in 48 AAA innings). Offers promising 1:1 K/I ratio with considerably less than 1:1 Hit/Inning ratios. Not expected to make rotation out of camp but could be up by mid season if he can dominate like he did in first part of his AA season last year.
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Dan uggla is going to surprise lot of players in the nl eastComment -
Through 55 at-bats as of Monday, Puig leading the league in hitting at .527/.509/.855. He's shown contact ability, power, speed, and athleticism that has been compared to the great Bo Jackson. I got to see Puig play live last week, and in the final game, all he did was hit a booming homer to left, notch a couple singles, a stolen base, and then a triple to the deepest part of the ballpark. With Carl Crawford healthy, Puig doesn't have a spot in the outfield, but at some point, look for him to force the issue. The Dodgers could deal a guy like Ethier, or even think outside the box and try Puig at third base. If that sounds far-fetched, Puig recently said he's even be comfortable playing shortstop for the time being. Puig has yet to draw a walk this spring, but again, a .509 OBP. I also saw Puig work pitches for double-digit pitch counts recently, so I'm not worried about any plate discipline issues. The Dodgers are reportedly looking to find a spot for Puig on the Opening Day roster, but look for him to open in the minors and force the issue at some point this season.
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Major League Baseball has finally started back up again!
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Chicago Cubs:Carlos Marmol's rough spring:Prior to Tuesday's disastrous outing (0 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 1 BB); Carlos Marmol was motoring along through spring training with a 1.86 ERA that on the surface showed little reason for concern. As you can probably tell by my clever use of "on the surface", the peripheral statistics in Marmol's small spring sample size (even before the eruption) weren't so appealing. Marmol had walked 7 and struck out just 4 in those 9 2/3 innings as he did his usual tight-rope routine while keeping runs off the board. The poor command is nothing new to fantasy owners as Marmol has walked 15.5% of the batters he's faced in his career, but the lack of strikeouts is continuing a worrisome trend. Marmol's K% remains above the league average but over the last three years it's gone from 41.6% to 30.3% to 29.2%. Now there is a bit of "start-point" bias in that sample as the previous three years Marmol's K% was 33.7%, 32.8%, and 27.8%, but some other indicators suggest Marmol's recent decline in K% is likely to continue.In 2012, Marmol's swinging strike % fell to 9.1% after spending five consecutive years above 10% and averaging well over 11%. In addition Marmol's contact rates inside the strike zone spiked to a career high 74.2% (average 71.2%). The underlying indicators support the drop in Marmol's K% and the inability to generate whiffs in the strike zone has forced Marmol to try and get hitters to chase more. His Zone % (% of pitches inside the strike zone) was a career low 43.6% (average 47.8%) and unfortunately for Marmol hitters weren't budging (career low 22% chase rate). As a result we've got a pitcher whose deteriorating ability to miss bats is now feeding into an increasing propensity to walk batters and work from behind. The last two seasons Marmol has allowed line drive rates well above his career average and his HR/FB Rates have started to normalize. This makes sense. Marmol is working from behind more, with weaker stuff, and thus hitters are squaring him up better as they're able to sit on "their" pitch.Now Marmol is an interesting position with the Cubs, who have come out in support of their closer. He's in the final year of his contract and the Cubs are in a rebuilding mode. They'd like to build up his trade value by keeping the shiny "closer's" tag on him and recoup some value on him before the wheels fall off. As a result, you'll see Marmol get a very long leash early in the season. Ultimately though one of two things will happen, either 1) Marmol pitches well enough to get traded or 2) Marmol destroys his value and the Cubs are forced to absorb the sunk cost, moving their newly-signed Japanese reliever Kyuji Fukijawa into the role. Based on the skill deterioration, the second scenario seems more likely than the first, but what fantasy owners should note is both scenarios likely result in Marmol not getting saves in the 2nd half of the season. Now there are certainly some scenarios in between but I think these two present the most likely and it's the reason I've been saying all preseason I think Kyuji Fujikawa ends up leading the Cubs in saves by year's end.
A Contrarian Take on Anthony Rizzo:As a Cubs fan AND fellow Marjory Stoneman Douglas alum (Go Eagles!), you'd think I'd be all aboard the breakout train as my biases overwhelm my analysis. Sadly for me (not so much for you), my highly analytical brain prevents me in most cases (Mike Trout excluded) from romanticizing a player and instead focuses me on their peripherals. In Rizzo's case there is obviously a lot to like. He's a big power hitting 1B who posted elite LD Rates last season (24.4%) and plays in a home park that inflates left-handed power. He's also revered within the Cubs organization which locks in his playing time and heck he's even beat cancer!There are, however, some warning signs in Rizzo's profile that he'll need to overcome in order to take another step forward. If you dig in on Rizzo's plate discipline you'll notice an alarming 38.5% chase rate (% of pitches outside the strike zone which Rizzo swung at). The league average is around 30-31%, so Rizzo is offering at far more difficult pitches to hit than the average hitter. Last year, this didn't result in an extended K Rate as he struck out in just 16.8% of his PA's, but the year before a brief stint with the Padres a poor approach led to a 30+% K% and most of Rizzo's minor league seasons he held a 20+% K%. Certainly players grow and they improve, but Rizzo's swinging strike rate of 9.6% was also above the league average last year of 9.1%. Perhaps too simple of an assumption but the fact that Rizzo had above average chase rates and swinging strike rates make me think his below average K Rate (16.8% vs. average of 19.8%) is a bit shaky.In addition, pitchers seemed to adapt to Rizzo as the season went on. They offered him fewer pitches in the strike zone and allowed him to restrict some of his power by making him hit "pitcher's pitches". A look at Rizzo's ISO by month last year: June - .333, July - .237, August - .090, September - .193; tells a bit of the tale. The below average plate discipline coupled with a slowing production pace as the season wore on have me concerned Rizzo's 2012 production may have been a bit over-stated and the significant jump forward that we're all hoping for might come from a lower base-line. My other concerns around Rizzo revolve around his issues with LHP. Rizzo posted an ugly .208/.243/.356 line against LHP last year and if he's really going to put a monstrous season together he can't be utterly useless in 30% of his plate appearances.On the positive side for Rizzo he IS just 23 years old and won't turn 24 until August. He has shown the ability to make adjustments at the big league level after his horrific debut in 2011 and by all accounts he's a very hard worker. Those betting on Rizzo to put together a gigantic breakout season aren't doing so haphazardly, there are reasons to be excited about the youngster, but in some cases it feels like an "expected linear development" for a young player. This is something I caution fantasy owners about all the time. Young players don't all progress in a linear fashion and they don't all develop in the same way. Rizzo could continue to show improvements and fulfill those expecting a breakout, but I believe this is a situation where they're "betting on the come" as opposed to valuing the player as his performance currently suggests.
Florida Marlins:Update on Logan Morrison:Quiet and Logan Morrison don't usually go together in the same sentence but that's largely what it's been this spring with the young Marlins 1B. Morrison has experienced some delays in his surgically repaired knee and what was assumed to be a mid-April return is starting to drift further into the year. Morrison still hasn't begun on-field activities, the least of which includes running, and as a result his time-table is starting to look more like mid-May. We're still very high on Morrison's skills which outside of twitter include an exceptional 11% career BB Rate and .192 ISO. He's yet to put all the skills together in the same season while also staying healthy, which is the reason he's a draft-day bargain. With the question marks surrounding his health leaking into the second month of the season, he should only be considered for formats with deep benches or DL slots available to stash. Once healthy we think Morrison has the chops to put up per game averages amongst the top 10-15 1B, but the opportunity cost of tying up a roster spot in the first 6-7 weeks of the season is a meaningful early in the year when trying to identify breakout candidates. Make sure you understand your league settings well before taking the risk.
Marlins agree to terms with Miguel Olivo, impact to Rob Brantly?
With major league cuts being made this week you'll see some movement on the periphery that affects fantasy owners and one such move could be on the horizon in Miami. On Thursday morning the Reds released Miguel Olivo, paving the way for Devin Mesoraco to earn the backup catcher's role, but also potentially paving the way for Olivo to join up with the Marlins. According to reports, Miguel Olivo asked for his release and was granted and just hours after the news broke sources began tying his name to Miami where the current catcher competition includes Rob Brantly and Kyle Skipworth. Brantly is an offense first catcher who has some work to do with his receiving skills but hit an impressive .290/.372/.460 last year in 113 PA's with the Marlins. Digging deeper on Brantly's first turn through the majors you'll notice he did almost all of his damage against RHP (.313/.396/.513) while he struggled against southpaws to the tune of .200/273/.250. Olivo, a career .270/.303/.477 hitter vs. LHP, would make for an ideal platoon partner and provide some more experience for the Marlins who are very young at the catcher position. Olivo himself isn't a particularly adept receiver and with the Marlins in rebuilding mode he poses no threat to Brantly's status as the starting catcher, but he likely would cut into AB's vs. LHP. If you're a Brantly owner, oddly, I think this is a good thing. The Marlins would be more inclined to schedule Brantly's maintenance days around a LHP, allowing Brantly to stay fresh but also get maximum value out of his bat. His short-term performance last season at the major leagues seems exceptionally over-stated as he was hitting .298/.340/.412 across AA and AAA last year while flashing a BB Rate and ISO about half of what he put up at the big league level. Brantly is an interesting young catching option in deep formats, but I remain higher on players like Wilson Ramos and Yasmani Grandal (including the suspension) as a 2nd catcher option than I am on someone with Brantly's limited offensive track record.
Colorado Rockies:Chris Nelson named the opening day 3B, Nolan Arenado will start in AAA:There was some buzz two weeks back about the Rockies considering breaking camp with Nolen Arenado as their starting 3B but I cautioned our subscribers that it seemed inconsistent with their handling of the young 3B last year. Arenado's piping hot start in spring inevitably slowed and as it did the conversation around him starting with the big league club. Through Wednesday's action he was hitting .288/.288/.596 showing great pop, but inadequate plate discipline with a 0:8 BB:K Ratio. Arenado showed strong contact rates and adequate power in AA last year as he hit .285/.337/.428 but that line didn't exactly suggest he was major league ready. Arenado will start at AAA and be given the opportunity if he pushes the Rockies hand, but don't expect to see him before May at the earliest and more likely the summer.Chris Nelson is the big beneficiary for fantasy purposes as he solidifies the opening day role. Nelson is a career .284/.327/.427 hitter at the big league level. He's experienced a BABIP boost (.343 average) thanks to a career 23.5% LD Rate and the big gaps in Coors Field that allows him to post a solid batting average despite unappealing contact rates (79.7% Contact Rate, 20.7% K%). Nelson, like his counterpart Jordan Pacheco, doesn't have much HR power or speed, so his fantasy appeal is largely tied to position flexibility, batting average, and the supporting lineup around him. With Nelson likely to hit 8th to start the season and potentially compete for AB's with Pacheco, he's nothing more than a deep league option, but his value does get a slight boost with the confirmation he has early season playing time. I wouldn't get too overwhelmed by the .301/.352/.458 line he posted in 377 PA's last season as a .374 BABIP and unusual (for him) 13.6% HR/FB Rate inflated those numbers quite a bit. I think his career line (noted above) is a fair expectation for his production going forward.
Additional Notes Around the League:Bruce Rondon (RP - DET): The Tigers optioned Bruce Rondon down to AAA on Thursday clearing the way for a bullpen by committee approach to the closer's role which Jim Leyland has hinted at this spring. Rondon has a big time fastball but it doesn't have a lot of movement and without advanced secondary pitches, he showed this spring he simply wasn't ready for big league action (9 BB's, 26 base-runners in 12 1/3 IP). While Rondon continues his development on the farm, fantasy owners are left trying to figure out who will be the primary source of saves in Detroit. The bullpen has two primary options and one sleeper option. Phil Coke was thrust into the closer's role in the postseason and with Drew Smyly (another lefty) in the pen, Leyland could look in that direction again. Joaquin Benoit (10.65 K/9, 2.79 BB/9) probably has the best skills of the group, but has durability concerns and the Tigers are rightfully cautious with him. Leyland has specifically said in the past that Benoit's workload would be monitored and was one of the reasons they wouldn't consider him a full-time closer. The sleeper option is Al Albuquerque who aside from a really cool name has exceptional strikeout rates (12.15 K/9 last season) but often struggles with command (5.40 BB/9). The whole situation appears likely to be headed the way of the committee with Benoit and Coke likely sharing the majority of matchup-based save opportunities. In committee situations it's important to understand your league settings in order to know the best way to approach them. Players with daily lineup transactions can afford to roster many middle relievers and shuffle starters in and out based on probable pitchers. In those instances there is no downside to holding members of a committee. Similarly in very deep leagues (15 team mixed and beyond, NL or AL Only) where middle relievers are used there is little opportunity cost to owning a piece of a committee. In those formats I think Benoit and Coke are strong pickup candidates and since Benoit has slightly better skills and is RH I'd lean to him as the top pick-up. In 10 and 12-team leagues with weekly lineup settings committees can be a real drag on your staff. In those cases middle relievers typically aren't used to boost ratios because the replacement level of the SP's on the wire is strong. Subsequently activating a reliever who is sharing save opportunities can leave you trailing in counting categories while making up little ground in saves or ratios. In 10 and 12 team mixed leagues with weekly settings I don't mind rostering committee options on your bench, but be careful deploying them without a full-time role.
Shelby Miller (SP - STL): We have no shortage of writers on are staff that are big fans of Shelby Miller, but I feel the need to get my two cents in since I think I've now landed him in every draft I've participated in. Miller is a high level pitching prospect who debuted out of the Cardinals bullpen in September and posted a 29.6% K% and 7.4% BB% in 13 2/3 innings. This spring he's posted a 3.94 ERA and 1.38 WHIP along with a solid 13:5 K:BB Ratio in 16 spring innings. The performance wasn't overwhelming but it was enough to earn the 5th spot in the Cardinals rotation. Last year at AAA, Miller posted a 4.74 ERA at AAA with the usual good peripherals (10.54 K/9, 3.29 BB/9) but it was really a tale of two halves. Miller had lost a bunch of weight in preparation for big league camp in 2012 and he struggled with consistency in his delivery in the first part of the season. As he worked his way back up to his usual weight the results started to come. He posted a 2.88 ERA with 70 K's and just 7 BB's in his last 59 1/3 IP. The improvement in command in the 2nd half would be a true difference maker at the big league level. In Miller's minor league career he posted a 3.2 BB/9 mark that would translate closer to 3.5 or 3.6 at the major league level. At those levels, Miller would be a negative WHIP contributor and a bit of an ERA risk, but one that his exceptional K Rates would warrant taking a chance on. The range of outcomes remains large for young pitching prospects, but Miller's potential for a 9+ K/9 and good W potential with a strong Cardinals team is one that has me gambling on him. In a recent 15-team NFBC draft, I took Shelby as my 4th SP (Kershaw, Darvish, Fister top 3). In 10 and 12 team leagues I've been stashing him as my 6th or 7th SP and hoping to capitalize on that great K Rate. If Miller maintains the command growth he saw in the 2nd half of last season he has the upside of a #2 starter in fantasy this year (long-term potential #1) with the downside of an Edinson Volquez type if he can't consistently pound the zone.
Stephen Drew (SS - BOS): The Red Sox have elected to use the 7-day DL as Stephen Drew continues to battle concussion symptoms. A noted health risk, Drew will once again miss time to start the season. He's an interesting late round flier once again depending on league type (DL slots, daily lineup transactions ideal for Drew). Boston is an obvious hitters haven and Drew is willing to use the whole field making the green monster a nice target to flick balls off of for the left-handed power-hitting SS. Drew showed some intriguing peripherals last year despite a horrific .223/.309/.348 line. He walked in 11.3% of his plate appearances and only chased 19.7% of pitches outside the strike zone. He also posted a low 7.5% swinging strike %, but endured a big jump in his K% (23.2%, career 17.7%) because of his, perhaps, excessively patient approach that led to many deep counts. When Drew did make contact a monstrous 27.6% LD Rate suggests he was squaring the ball up well, but the resulting .275 BABIP really suppressed his batting average. It's exceptionally unlikely Drew stays healthy enough to be a traditional mixed league contributor during the season, but for those with DL slots where the risk is simply moving him onto the DL and adding another player, I think he's an intriguing late-round gamble. Drew represents another player where it's important to understand your league settings to potentially unlock some added value.
Sergio Santos (RP - TOR): Santos surrendered 4 runs in his inning of work on Thursday against the Phillies, marking the 2nd blow-up he's had of the spring. Santos has now allowed 7 ER's in his 7 innings this spring while being victimized by two long-balls. The stuff has been there for Santos (8 K's in 7 IP) but his command has been wobbly (3 BB's) and his fly-ball propensities have cost him a shot at the closer's role while Casey Janssen has rehabbed himself back. With the Blue Jays pen deeper than it has been in years past and Santos having battled some arm issues early in the spring he may need to work his way back into the primary setup role.
Rick Porcello (SP - DET): The big news broke earlier in the week that Rick Porcello had bested Drew Smyly in the competition for the Tigers 5th starter slot. Porcello battled trade rumors all spring training but has put together one of the more impressive springs. Porcello has posted a 3.00 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in 24 innings but most impressively has compiled a 21:0 K:BB Ratio. Having been burnt by spring training stars in the past (2012 Francisco Liriano I'm looking at you), I tend to de-emphasize spring training performances unless there are mechanical changes to take note of. With Porcello, there actually are some rather notable ones to focus in on. Porcello has reportedly scrapped his slider and started to throw his curve-ball as his primary breaking pitch. This was actually his primary breaking ball out of high school and along with Porcello's big velocity one of the reasons he was a highly coveted amateur. Looking back at Porcello's usage patterns at the big league level, it's clear the pitch took a back-seat. For his career Porcello has thrown fastballs ~70% of the time with his slider being used ~15%, change-up ~ 11% and his curveball just 4%. In terms of effectiveness his FB has been considered a modestly above average pitch while his change-up and curve-ball have both been modestly below average and his slider has been a complete disaster (-23.2 runs below replacement), with much of that disaster coming last year. Porcello still has a ways to go before he's mixed league relevant as his career 1.42 WHIP paired with an underwhelming 5.00 K/9 make him a starter that does more damage to your ratios than helps your K's and W's. That being said, I have some optimism around the improvements this spring. If Porcello's spring K Rate (7.89 K/9) is hinting at any meaningful improvement in the K Rate, the rest of the arsenal could come. The upside remains modest (think Trevor Cahill type), but the 24 year old has the stuff and the prospect pedigree to take a step forward. He's only worth considering in deep mixed leagues or AL Only formats at this point, but I think Porcello gets his K/9 over 6.0 this year and I think the LD's come down as well making him more of a 3.70 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 6.0 K/9 starter that is palatable in deep leagues. He's one of the few guys whose spring training performance is one I'm buying into.
Dan Uggla (2B - ATL): I've noted mechanical adjustments are one thing I look for in spring, another thing is players who appear to be on the verge of falling off a cliff. Dan Uggla represents one of those cases as his 2012 performance revealed plenty to be concerned about. Uggla still walked at a great clip (nearly 15%) thanks to a strong understanding of the strike zone, but a significant deterioration in his contact rates (70% in 2012, career 72.7% overall) specifically inside the strike zone (77.7% in 2012, 80.8% career) led to a huge expansion of his K Rate from a career 23.2% to 26.7% last year. The deteriorating contact rates, specifically in the strike zone, suggest slowing bat speed and it was backed up by Uggla's drop in his ISO to a career worst .164. This spring hasn't provided much reason for optimism as Uggla has hit .200/.268/.280 with a whopping 25 K's in 75 AB's. We have Uggla pretty far down in our rankings already, but I've considered him pretty much undraft-able in the leagues I've been participating this year. Uggla's profile was always one that figured to age poorly (highly bat speed dependent) and it appears we may have reached that point with Uggla.
Tyson Ross (SP - SD): Reports are surfacing out of San Diego that the Padres are inclined to choose Tyson Ross over Andrew Cashner for the 5th spot in their rotation. This is a bit of a surprise and a disappointing one to fantasy owners as Cashner is the player that holds all the upside. Ross has been OK this spring (2.57 ERA, 1.29 WHIP - 8.14 K/9, 4.29 BB/9), but his career xFIP of 4.42 suggest there isn't much special to him. Pitching in PETCO (even with the fences moved in) could help Ross' strikeouts play up and perhaps keep the ERA down, but his career 10.7% BB Rate suggests WHIP is going to be a problem. The real fantasy impact here is the downgrade in value for Cashner who will shift back to a bullpen role. Cashner has a career 3.71 xFIP with an intriguing combination of strikeout skills (22.8% K%) and GB Rate (51+%) that we look for in potential breakout pitchers. It appears Cashner won't get the immediate chance in the rotation.
Johan Santana (SP - NYM): In a late afternoon press conference the Mets revealed Johan Santana likely has re-torn the shoulder capsule and will face season-ending surgery. Santana had already faced a long potential rehab recovery before knowing the extent of the injury but this will likely knock him out for good. He can be removed from all draft boards and watch lists for the 2013 season and odds are we've likely seen the last of Johan Santana as a viable fantasy option. One of the truly elite fantasy starting pitchers in his prime, the Mets have gotten just 9.6 wins above replacement in their four years with Santana. For comparison's sake from 2004-2006 Santana averaged 7.4 wins above replacement per year.
Alex Gordon (OF - KC): Gordon stayed red-hot this spring by launching his 7th HR of the spring and raising his batting line to .431/.488/.778 in 72 AB's. The power surge is nice to see for fantasy owners since it took Gordon 642 AB's to hit 14 HR's last year and the lack of HR's really sapped a lot of Gordon's fantasy value. The interesting thing about Gordon's 2012 season is he made a lot of individual improvements but his production translated into a big drop-off in fantasy value simply because he didn't accrue HR's and SB's. Gordon improved his BB Rate and his K Rate while lowering his swinging strike rate and improving his already very strong line drive rates (25% last year, career 21.7%). Most of Gordon's profile looks right in line with his 2012 performance with the exception of his HR/FB Rate. Gordon's HR/FB Rate the previous three years ranged from 11.3%-12.6% but last year dropped to 8.5%. While Gordon is unlikely to challenge the 20 SB threshold again, a return to the 20+ HR season with 100+ Runs and 75+ RBI's seems very likely. Gordon seems like a tremendous bet to finish the season as a Top 25 OF again.
Domonic Brown (OF - PHI): Domonic Brown has always had the talent and in his brief major league opportunities he's flashed above average skills (19.7% LD Rate, 10.4% BB Rate, .152 ISO), but the Phillies haven't had the same faith in Brown that most of us in the fantasy industry have displayed. This spring it appears that Brown has made it difficult for them to ignore him as he's hit .376/.430/.671 in 85 AB's. As I've noted repeatedly in the blurbs today, spring training stats alone don't impact my evaluation but when they come with a mechanical change I take notice. With Brown a small change that the Phillies new hitting coach Wally Joyner suggested with Brown's hands appear to have made a meaningful difference. Brown's confidence is back and he's consistently driving the ball to all fields this spring, something he did to earn top prospect status working his way through the minors. With Brown's playing time secure through the first month of the season (no Delmon Young), it appears he's finally ready to assume the big role we expected a few years back when he made his debut. Sometimes all it takes is a small adjustment for a player to realize his potential and I think we're seeing that take place with Brown this spring.
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Don't forget about the royals staff.Comment -
Well, Justin Maxwell sure is off to a hot start!Comment -
March 7th post 2
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Wonder if wainwright can regain form pre-injuryComment -
Looking for a potential 30 hr guy.
Chris Carter or Brandon Moss?Comment -
I think a lot of people think Carlos Marmol losses his closing role.
A Lot of Fuikawa pick ups....
Sucks that Ludwick got hurt (shoulder) out 3 months. Surgery on Wednesday to repair damage in the labrum in his right shoulder.
Reds not in a hurry to call up Billy. Instead they are bringing up Derrick Robinson.Comment -
I've always thought that Marmol had electric stuff and had the potential to be one of the league's top closers.
Unfortunately, he can be a head case at times and let his emotions take over.Comment -
Marmol almost gave your boys the game today ss.Comment -
josh johnson should have great startsComment -
Jackie Bradley Jr going to be a great bench guy IMO. The sox are a different type of team this year than they have been in a long timeComment
