watch out for timmy.
-
Comment -
Andrelton Simmons could be a steal at shortstop.Comment -
thinking if heyward stays healthy ,hes good for some excellent powerComment -
Joey Votto, Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, David Ortiz, and Jimmy Rollins will make a guest voice appearance on The Cleveland Show Sunday night at 8:30 pm est on Fox.
Cleveland pursues his life-long dream of becoming a Major League Baseball scout.Comment -
Michael Kirkman- TEX- RP- Kirkman is finally going to assume the prominent role in the Texas bullpen that he was expected to last spring. A diagnosis of skin cancer and subsequent treatments threw that plan off. Although a lefty, Kirkman is more than a LOOGY. In both of his relatively brief major league stints he has held righthanded hitters to a lower average than lefties. In leagues that value holds, expect Kirkman to have some value as a setup man for closer Joe Nathan.
Craig Gentry- TEX- OF- The centerfield battle in Texas between Gentry and Leonys Martin may end up as a draw. Although Gentry is hitting .333 in the spring, Martin is hitting .394. Last season Gentry batted .343 against southpaws. The possibility of a platoon was a strong one coming into spring training. With neither candidate taking a significant one over the other yet it is becoming more likely as spring training continues.
Nick Markakis- BAL- OF- The news is a little less positive on Markakis herniated disk, but the Orioles are being optimistic. After seeing a spine specialist following his MRI Markakis was told he needs 2-3 weeks of rest and medication to get the inflammation and pain down. He is a week into the rest part so Opening Day isn't out of the question but is more in doubt. Markakis was also told it could be 8-12 weeks before his symptoms are completely gone so even if he does return to play at the start of the season he might not be at 100%.
Brian Matusz- BAL- P- Matusz is being looked at as a fifth starter for the Orioles. He certainly didn't hurt his cause yesterday as he threw 4 no-hit innings, striking out 7. Last season Matusz ended up in the bullpen where he was far more effective in his 13.1 IP of relief work than he was in 84.2 IP as a starter. A lot of that could be attributed to a .167 BABIP in a small sample size of relief IP but he also had a higher velocity on his fastball. Manager Buck Showalter isn't sure yet what role the lefty will have but he is looking like a lock for a roster spot in Baltimore this year.
Yovani Gallardo- MIL- P- Gallardo has become the ace of the staff almost by default. With the departures of Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, Gallardo is the closest thing Milwaukee has to an elite pitcher. In the strikeout category he certainly has that status. An average of a strikeout per inning is a given and Gallardo will probably pitch more than 200 innings. With the strikeouts can come some wildness, however, which will inflate his WHIP. A tendency to give up the long ball will do the same to his ERA. A projected ERA of 3.68 and WHIP of 1.27 is not bad enough to outweigh the boost in Ks he gives.
Hunter Morris- MIL- 1B- Morris is officially out of the 1B derby in Milwaukee. He was sent to AAA Nashville yesterday to get some time at that level instead of skipping from AA straight to the majors. If Morris had gotten off to a better start than his 3-for-25 in Cactus League play he might have made the leap. The Brewers aren't going to rush their 2012 Minor League Player of the Year before they feel he is ready, however. He still figures into their future plans.
Zack Greinke- LAN- P- Greinke will receive a Platelet Rich Plasma injection in his inflamed elbow along with anti-inflammatories. Chad Billingsley has a similar treatment last year when he had a partially torn elbow ligament and didn't need Tommy John surgery. Keep a close watch on Greinke. Billingsley was also diagnosed with elbow inflammation at first and his ligament tear wasn't discovered until the inflammation went down. It is possible that he could start throwing tomorrow and if he does it is a better sign that he isn't following the same path as Billingsley.
Andy Pettitte- NYY- P- After throwing two simulated games Pettitte made his first appearance in a real fake game, tossing 3 IP against the Phillies. He allowed a run on 4 hits and 3 walks while striking out 3. Pettitte's command wasn't superb, throwing 36 of 58 pitches for strikes but there wasn't anything that raised true concern. Pettitte pitched well last season in an injury curtailed comeback campaign. His K/9 of 8.24 was his best since 2004 and his FIP of 3.48 indicated there is still something left in his tank.
Derek Jeter- NYA- SS- Jeter played in the field for the first time this spring and fielded a routine grounder. That is progress as he comes back from a broken ankle. Jeter should be playing in consecutive games before too long and is on track to be fully ready by Opening Day.
Andrew Taylor- LAA- RP- Taylor was diagnosed with a slight labrum tear. It won't require surgery but he will be shut down to let it heal and won't challenge for a LOOGY role with the Angels. After walking 71 batters in 112 IP at AA in 2011 he seemed to get his control in place with a return trip to that level last year. Taylor gave up 14 BBs in 41 IP with Arkansas before getting promoted to AAA. The control demons resurfaced as he walked 11 in 18 IP with Salt Lake and then 4 in 2 IP with the Angels in 3 appearances as a September callup. Taylor had walked 3 in 1.2 IP this spring so his odds of making the team were already long before the injury.
Kris Medlen- ATL- P- Medlen left yesterday's game after being hit by a liner for the second time. In the 4th he took one off his foot and in the 5th off his arm. He was sore afterwards but said that he should still be making his next start. Medlen will be in the rotation full time this season and is looking to repeat an impressive comeback year after missing 2011 due to Tommy John surgery. Medlen's numbers are hard to project but Fantistics looks for him to post 13 wins, a 3.44 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 7.93 K/9.
Starlin Castro- CHN- SS- Castro saw his first game action since February 27th, testing his tight hamstring. He walked and singled at the plate as well as fielding all three outs in the 2nd inning against the Rockies. Castro was extremely durable last year, playing in all 162 games and is looking to repeat that. With a projected average of .292 this year and 18 projected homers Castro's ability to play every day increases his value.
Brennan Boesch- DET- OF- Boesch was given his unconditional release by the Tigers yesterday. With the signing of Torii Hunter and the emergence of Andy Dirks, there wasn't room for Boesch any more. Expect him to be picked up soon and get a chance at a more prominent role. Houston and the Yankees are leading contenders to take a look at him.
Randall Delgado- ARI- P- Delgado threw 4 shutout IP against the Brewers yesterday as he makes a bid for the 5th rotation spot with the D-backs. He came over from Atlanta in the Justin Upton trade and needs to show improvement in his control. Delgado had a 4.12 BB/9 in 17 games as a starter in Atlanta last year before posting a 4.26 in 8 starts after being sent to AAA. So far this spring he has only walked 1 in 7 IP.Chris Perez- CLE- RP- Perez played catch again yesterday. His shoulder strain is still limiting him but the Indians are holding out some hope that he could be back for Opening Day.
Stephen Strasburg- WAS- P- In a move nowhere near as surprising as the election of an Argentinian Pope, manager Davey Johnson named Strasburg as the Nationals' Opening Day starter. Unlike last season an early start to the season won't mean an early end due to an innings limit. Strasburg is at full strength and shooting for 200 IP of elite production beginning with Game 1.
Comment -
P Johnny Cueto Breakout season in '12 with 19 Wins/2.82 ERA/1.17 WHIP...but can he repeat? We think the odds are stacked against him: His ERA was 38 points less than expected, his Strand rate of .78 is considered high for a pitcher with a .78 Strand Rate, and he had 3 more wins than deserved. Still a stud at only 27...but a statistical backtrack expected.
P Jon Lester Seems to have lost mastery over hitters, as evidenced by rise in K Zone contact rate (from 86% in 2010 to 91% in 2012). Still l he was shorted 3 Wins by lack of team support. Xera says ERA was off by 36 points, BABIP was a career unlucky high (.310) and the 67% strand rate didn't help. Some bounce back expected.
P Jon Niese How special was Niese's 2012 season, consider that he never posted a WHIP as good as his 1.17 (closest was 1.28), nor held the opponent to a higher Runners Stranded Rate 77% during his 4 year minor league career. Aiding him as a lucky BABIP (270), so we're going to see some regression, although the Wins column could improve with some additional team support.
P Jordan Zimmermann Excellent command (1.98 BB/9) , with domination verses LHP (354 SLG). Continues to benefit from lower than typical HR/FB rate of 9%, but ERA was understated by 47 points last year. Has top 20 potential.
P Josh Beckett His fastball has lost 3 MPH since 2009.
P Josh Johnson Johnson lost a tick on his fastball last season, and the 2 MPH he's lost since his peak in 2009, was a significant reason he struggled in 2012. However at 93 MPH Johnson, still has enough fastball to be effective, and he did just that in the 2nd H posting a 1.18 WHIP. Unfortunately he didn't get much support. Consider that he finished with 22 Quality Starts, yet only registered 8 Wins...possibly being shorted as many as 7 victories. Buy low.
P Justin Masterson Unlucky BABIP (303) hurt Masterson...as his high GB/FB rate failed him in 2012. It seems that the worst came with men on base as evidenced by his .66 Strand Rate. He'll be better in '13, but with low K/I guys...the risk is higher.
P Justin Verlander Continues to dominate with a rubber arm. Once again logged in an impressive 238 innings with his 4:1 K/BB rate. Once again a top 3 pitching selection.
P Kevin Correia Poor K/I rate, keeps him at BABIP (GB pitcher), which was a lucky last season, expect his overall numbers to back off and not build on the 8 2H victories.
P Kris Medlen Don't buy into the 1.57 ERA, as his 85% strand rate is not sustainable on a .87 K/I. What is impressive is his 53% GB rate and pinpoint control 1.5 BB/9...This former top prospect has arrived.
P Kyle Drabek Very hittable when in K zone (90%), couple his with a Low K rate and high BB%...and we don't see any breakout coming in 2013.Comment -
Cueto very lucky season
Lester you have to wonder if he'll ever return to formComment -
As a Blue Jays fan I like the news on Johnson in post #113. As for Drabek, at least the Blue Jays are not counting on him in the rotation this season.Comment -
medlin had very good year for the braves. One of the longest streaks for winning games. Don't see any bad things about this rightyComment -
Whats the consensus about Cashner? Fastball touching high 90s and has a decent shot to avoid the dl. If hes still available is he must add territory?Comment -
Ronnier Mustelier 3B (NYY)- There are going to be 200 ABs up for grabs, in all likelihood, for players that wouldn't otherwise have received them for the Yankees this spring before Granderson and Teixeira return. The obvious options are guys like Juan Rivera and Matt Diaz, while the early sleeper was toolsy youngster Melky Mesa. An intriguing option that hasn't been discussed as much is Cuban defector Ronnier Mustelier. Mustelier was not a "loud" signing back in 2011, inking for only $50K, but he's done nothing but hit since coming into the Yankee organization, putting up a 324/378/497 line across four levels over a season-plus. He's played some LF and some 3B over the past two years, the two areas of need right now if Youkilis is going to move across the diamond, and at age 28 I don't think much more seasoning is necessary. With the positive hitting impact of playing in that park, Mustelier could clearly provide value as a 3B/LF with 15 HR pop and 10 SB speed if he can get the playing time, so keep a close eye on this situation over the next few weeks.
Derrek Lee 1B (N/A) - Yet another interesting option for the Yankees in the "injury replacement" category is Derrek Lee, who sat last year out after showing his worst BB and K rates in a decade back in 2011. Lee is 37 now, but would provide a nice RH alternative to Travis Hafner even after Teixeira returns, and he has the sort of clubhouse presence the Yankees like. I wouldn't expect much out of him except a few homers, so his value is still likely relegated to the deepest of formats this spring.
Jose Quintana and Hector Santiago SP (CWS) - Jose Quintana and Hector Santiago are battling for the 5th starter's slot in Chicago, with Quintana getting the edge right now based on his early-season performance in 2012. Quintana tossed 57 innings with a 2.04 ERA in the first half filling in for the injured John Danks, but his ERA worsened in every month, ballooning ultimately over 5.00 for the second half in total, and even so his BABIP was still rather fortunate for the entire year. Hector Santiago was also fortunate with his average on balls hit into play, but in his four starts down the stretch he allowed just 4 runs over 19 1/3 innings, striking out 26. His stuff and upside are greater than Quintana's, but without the opportunity he merely merits watching for the time being. Quintana is a back-end option in deeper leagues for me, as his ERA is likely to rise from last year and his K rate is middling.
Adam Dunn 1B/DH (CWS) - Dunn had a solid bounceback year, at least in terms of power, in 2012 with 41 homers and 96 RBIs. Despite the 2nd-best LD rate of his career he suffered through his 3rd-lowest BABIP, hampering his AVG to the point where it became a lead weight instead of a minor nuisance. I do expect some rebound there, but likely only into the .225-.235 range, so really Dunn remains simply a cheap power grab in the later rounds despite 8 seasons in 9 with at least 38 homers. The likelihood of a sub-.200 average is just too high, but with the right strategy Dunn could be a nice fit.
Michael Saunders OF (SEA) - Saunders was a fairly useful player last year in his first full season, and as a 26 year old in an improved offense here in 2013, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him have a chance at a 25/25 season where he provides value in the four categories outside of AVG. The K's are a big enough concern that I would imagine a return to his minor league AVG (.277) is out of the question, but there may be a bit of BABIP-related upside here as well....perhaps enough to get up near .260. Saunders could be very valuable regardless, but getting close to the norm in AVG would help tremendously. I'm bullish here.
Erasmo Ramirez SP (SEA) - Ramirez is a nice sleeper in AL-only and deeper mixed leagues this season, as he appears to have a better than average chance of starting the season in the rotation, is part of an improved club in one of the best pitching parks in baseball, and he has solid stuff and very good control. Ramirez is a 22 year old from Nicaragua with only three pro seasons under his belt, but he was already pitching in AAA toward the end of his second pro season, so he's shown some solid success moving through the chain. The K rates aren't stellar, and he had some very favorable luck with BABIP at the big league level last year, but there's definitely the chance of some solid WHIP and W numbers here for the back end of a rotation.
Zack Greinke SP (LAD) - My enthusiasm for Greinke this year has gone from "ridiculous" to "significant" after the news that Greinke's elbow is still bothering him 10 days after the first bit of discomfort, but with all tests showing no structural problems and with Greinke himself stating that he's dealt with this often and never missed a start, I'm left simply salivating over the move from LA to, well, LA. It may just be crosstown, but the move to the pitchers league is always significant.....even with Houston in the AL. Greinke has excellent control, still solid stuff, and the Dodgers are definitely a pennant contender. Greinke should be a clear #1 this season.
Scott Kazmir SP (CLE) - I believe it has gone: pity, surprise, confusion, and careful consideration thus far on the emotional spectrum regarding Scott Kazmir this spring. Kazmir has been a complete mess since 2010, failing even to post a sub-5.00 ERA in the Atlantic League (independent ball) last season over 13 starts, so to see him in camp for the Indians, well, it was a cute little story. Fast forward three outings (plus one B-squad game), and now there's just a hint of reality to it. Kazmir has given up five hits and a walk over eight scoreless innings in A-squad games, striking out eight. Yes, it's spring training, but his velocity already looks better than it has in five years, back when he was posting mid-3.00 ERA's and striking out more than a batter per inning. It's too early to get really excited just yet, but his chances of making the rotation have gone from virtually zero to, in my estimation, better than 50% in just three weeks. As a late-round flier in deep leagues, there are worse lottery tickets around.
Brian Roberts 2B (BAL) - Roberts has opened up the spring 8-20 with 2 doubles and a homer, and really my only question now is whether or not he'll still have the speed that made him one of the better 2B in the league four years ago. If he can steal swipe 20 bags and hit for a decent average, he's certainly worth a draft pick this spring, and I do expect that he will be able to approach that level of play from what I've seen thus far.
Hunter Morris 1B (MIL) - We're getting into mid-March and we still have little idea who will be playing 1B for Milwaukee on Opening Day. Hunter Morris is as good a guess as any at this point, and he's been drafted in a couple of my leagues already in anticipation that he'll win the job. An interesting tidbit on Morris is that his big breakout last year at AA came playing for his hometown team, the AA Huntsville Stars. Huntsville plays in a rather poor hitting environment, but Morris played much better at home than he did on the road last season, which makes me wonder if he is going to deal with anyplace else quite as well. Morris has power and is still just 24, but enough contact-related issues and the aforementioned interesting splits would give me pause in drafting him this year.
Brad Peacock SP (HOU) - Peacock was one of the players that came over in the Lowrie deal, and with a wide open bottom two slots in the Houston rotation, some sleeper potential is in effect here. Peacock was pretty atrocious in AAA last season, but the PCL's run scoring environment is immense. If Houston were still in the NL Central I'd be more excited about Peacock's prospects, as his K rates in the minors have been fantastic the past three years, but pitching in the AL might be a bit beyond his abilities at present. Still, as a reserve selection, a pitcher with consistent K rates over 9.00/9 in the minors merits a look.
Kevin Slowey SP (MIA) - Sticking with the "sleeping 5th starter" theme, the Marlins have wide open competition for many spots on their roster...it's almost like Major League 4 down there. Kevin Slowey has always had solid control but high flyball rates, so pitching down in Miami could provide him an environment conducive to success, although wins will definitely be tough to come by. For a late game option in deeper leagues as a starter, though, favorable WHIP and ERA hurlers are tough to come by, so he's someone to look at for your end-game draft scenarios.
Matt Carpenter 1B/2B/3B (STL) - There is still no clear favorite to open the season as the Cardinal 2B, as all three of Dan Descalso, Matt Carpenter, and Kolten Wongare playing well when given the chance. I like Carpenter's chances of getting the most playing time in the first half of the year, while Wong is likely to push him to the bench by season's end. Carpenter could give you a solid AVG and a half dozen homers or so in the first half, making him a reasonable late-round choice in deeper mixed leagues and certainly in NL-only formats, while Wong is an excellent reserve option in all formats and should be a mid-tier option at worst for 2014.
Chris Nelson 3B (COL) - I guy I've been targeting late in my deeper mixed leagues is Chris Nelson, as the one-time top prospect broke out a little bit last year with Colorado and is the favorite to come out of camp as the starter at 3B. Nelson offers a little bit of production across the board, and with the added benefit of playing in Colorado combined with his age-27 status, I think it's possible that there's some decent upside here...perhaps along the lines of .280 with 15 HR.
Casey Janssen RP (TOR) - Janssen is progressing well enough from an offseason shoulder injury that he may very well be ready to close games again by Opening Day, and with the Blue Jays looking vastly improved, he could be one of the more valuable closers in the game after a stellar improvement in both BB and K rate in 2012. Sergio Santos is a reasonable handcuff here, but Janssen could be extremely valuable in 2013.
Comment -
Projected Rotation (and guys on DL who will start at some point)1 Edinson Volquez SP SD 167 9 10 4.10 1.41 158 88 $-1 2 Clayton Richard SP SD 189 10 12 4.14 1.31 108 52 $-2 3 Jason Marquis SP SD 148 7 10 4.44 1.41 95 50 $-9 4 Eric Stults SP SD 133 6 8 4.26 1.35 84 46 $-6 5 Freddy Garcia SP SD 81 5 5 4.11 1.32 58 25 $-4 6 Andrew Cashner SP SD 95 6 5 3.60 1.31 93 41 $1 Comment -
2B Aaron Hill Amazing 12.3 XBH% last season with equal splits against both LHP and RHP. Absolutely loved hitting in Chase field as his slug was 88 points higher there. A regression is likely although there are no glaring indicators that say otherwise (other than BA - Singles rate was higher than his 3 year average). His recognition of pitches was the main difference between what we saw in 2012 verses his disaster years of '10-'11.
2B Ben Zobrist Continues to maintain an excellent 12% XBH rate. All indicators were in line last season with historical norms, but entering his 32nd season so we might start seeing an age related decline. SB especially at risk as his CS% is on the incline. RBI% was off, rebound expected there.
2B Brandon Phillips Phillips K% increased substantially in '12, yet his production was marginally impacted. There was a slight drop in his doubles production, but his course is still fairly stable.
2B Chase d'Arnaud D’Arnaud’s future with the Prates is probably that of a utility infielder, and there are legitimate doubts that he can produce enough power to get you level at third base, even as decimated as the position is this year. He makes up for that a little with a bit of a speed game that will likely produce a nice SB contribution.
2B Chase Utley Encouraging to see that he played in 79 games (288 Abs) last season, and 9.3 XBH% was in line with rate over the last 3 years. Still has upside, but no longer a dominant player.
2B Cord Phelps Cord won’t be a huge source of power but he’ll be a bigger contributor in sabermetric leagues. Contact has become an issue this year, but his 26.1% K rate is such an outlier that you have to have to feel things will get better in that column, although that rate hasn’t cooled off as the spring has gone along and the jump to the majors is probably not going to help him reign that rate in much. Cord stole 17 bases in A+ in 2009 but there’s been no sighting of that level of speed since, and Phelps is unlikely to be a big help there. That leaves us with a player without much to contribute on either the power or speed side of the ledger. Prospect Grade C-
2B Dan Uggla Declining Contact rate (70%) and .72 GB/FB rate, almost assure that he'll continue to have difficulty hitting above .240. Power and XBH numbers are on the decline as he approaches 33....but HRs should tick up in 2013 as his 11.3 FB/HR rate is significantly below his historical norm of ~17%.
2B Daniel Descalso Below average contact rate for hitter without pop (81%), makes him questionable to hit 250 in majors. When you couple that with no speed, there is little fantasy upside here.
2B Daniel Murphy Excellent Contact rate (88%) and 2.0 GB/FB rate makes Murphy a legit .300 hitter year in and year out. However there isn't much else from fantasy purposes, 10 SBs / 5 HRs / 60 RBIs / 60 Runs is what we can expect.
2B Danny Espinosa Solid batted ball speed of 105, HR distance of 407 makes his 12.6 HR/FB rate understated. Poor contact rate (71%) led to poor BA (.247), but a return to the 260-270 range is more likely. Potential for 20 HR / 20+ SB are a nice commodity for MI.
2B Darwin Barney Not much going on in typical 5x5 formats, as he really doesn't contribute to any of the 5 major categories. Balls it into Play Success was unlucky, so we should see an uptick in his BA.
2B Dustin Ackley We saw a significant drop in his XBH rate (5.9) and his BA flipped downward to a measly .226. We know that he was unlucky on Balls hit into play, but how much of that bone spur (removed in off season) was to blame for the power outage? Don't pay up for power as it's still in development.
2B Dustin Pedroia Awful first half was masked by strong 2H (10/34/.319/16 SB). Still within his prime, and expected to post increase with better lineup around him in '13
2B Emilio Bonifacio Emilo was on a stolen base tear 30 for 33 in 64 games before a thumb and knee injury sidetracked his '12 campaign. Solid Contact Rates (82%). If healthy, he's of prime age (27) to continue his resurgence.
2B Freddy Galvis Gravis squares up the ball in BP and sprays line drives but that had not translated to the plate until he posted a 25.7% LD in 121 AAA ABs last year. That led to a .350 BHIP which in turn led to a .298 BA
2B Wong,K. Good Contact prospect, with gap power. Stole 21 bases last season but was caught 11 times...not a very good ratio. Can hit .300 in majors, Daniel Descalso will have to produce in order to keep Wong down.
2B Gyorko, Jedd Showed a ton of offensive potential last year between AA/AAA with a +500 SLG. Although he had 30 HRs in under 500 Abs, I'm not sure how sustainable that rate is considering he only had 28 other extra base hits. Without the benefit of the splits, I'm going to assume that his HR/FB ratio was elevated. Still there is a lot to get excited about here with the potential of Gyorko coming up as a second baseman (he's moved from 3rd because of the Headley blockade)...He's battling for the starting job this spring and there's a good chance that he may win the job outright.
Comment -
I always liked Brian Roberts. I hope that he has a good comeback season.
I know if hes around in the late rounds, I will probably will pick him up.
Comment -
There's definitely a lot of good, young talent at second base this year.Comment -
josh hamilton should have a great seasonComment -
1B Mark Reynolds Poor Contact Rate (67%) and upper cut (.87 GB/FB%), topped out his BA in the 220-230 range. 1st half was forgettable, 2nd half was more indicative of his skill set (17/47/.229). Expect 30+ HRs decent some RBIs and Rs (thanks to high BB rate), but pain in terms of BA.
1B Matt Adams The 24-year-old, 6-3/230 left-handed hitter was hitting .340/.375/.603 in AAA at the time of his call up last season. He had maintained a very solid 17.8% K rate with the level jump, the latest in a string of sub-18% K rates that threads through his pro career. His contact skills are what attracts your attention, after of course, you see his .266 AA ISO from ‘11 and his .262 AAA ISO this year. Will likely start the season in AAA again, but may be up by mid season.
1B Matt Carpenter Matt may end up being a positive in AVG and OBP and that will help keep him in the lineup. He’ll show some pop but it will probably be less than you’d like over the long haul.
1B Mitch Moreland Played through an injury plagued season, and his power numbers were impressive (10.1 XBH% / .46 PW%). Still not getting full opportunity verses LHP despite improving in that area (.457 SLG). Has upward ability vs our 2013 projection.
1B Paul Goldschmidt Goldschmidt raked up an elite 12.7 XBH% with a .49 PW rate in 2012. At only 25, the kid looks rock solid. He has a penchant to square up the baseball (24% line drive rate), which makes up for his subpar 77% contact rate. His 14% HR/FB rate from a season ago is justified by his HR distance (408) /batted ball rate (104). Draws a decent amount of walks which should prop up his RS% this season. Lots to like from this 25 YO.
1B Paul Konerko We saw a significant decline in production from Konerko in the 2nd H (.427 SLG/.693 OPS). At 37, an age related decline is normal, but lets consider that the decline was partially related to a concussion and bone spur in his wrist.
1B Prince Fielder We project an uptick in HRs in 2013, as his FB/HR rate was less than typical last season. On the flip side his BA was elevated thanks to a lucky balls in play percentage (270 BHIP), which should knock 15 off his projected 2013. Amazing 1.01 EYE intact as is his elite 11% XBH rate and .53 RW%.
1B Ryan Howard Howard came back nicely in the 2nd half with a 14 HR/56 RBI line, but his BA of .219 was less than desirable. There'll be a bounce back as his power indicators are still in line.
1B Travis Ishikawa Travis posted an excellent 11.2 XBH% in 2012, but it didn't generate much production. Could see regular playing time as his .333 OBP is worthy.
1B Yonder Alonso Sure the HR totals weren't as impressive as we expected, but his 39 doubles are. A few things to consider: he's playing in Petco and he's still young. The doubles will translate into HRs ...but that might not come in 2013. Although the fences are moving in at Petco, a 18-22 HR season will likely be the ceiling in 2013.
1B Adam Dunn Nice Comeback season in 2012, but slipped a bit in the 2nd half (.419 SLG/9.7 XBH%). Don't pay for 41/96 in 2013
1B Luke Scott Back issues are a on going concern for a Jekyll and Hyde hitter who alternates splits against LHP/RHP. BA is at constant risk with 75% contact rate and 1.08 GB/FB ratio. Can easily hit 20-25, if healthy with less than 500 Abs.
1B Singleton,J. Promising prospect with 21% ISO last year in AA, but tested positive for PEDs and will miss first 50 games of season, making him a risk to be up by mid season...may be September callup guy.
Comment -
I'm convinced Howard will have a 30+ 90+ type power numbers this season.
He's been widely available in the middle rounds of most drafts so far this spring.
So, if you don't draft an elite first baseman like Pujols early, you can get Howard later, of if you do have an elite at first base, grab Howard as a utility player, or draft him late, watch him have a good spring and trade him for value in late May or June.Comment -
Dodgers fifth starter battle
Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang have each allowed six runs in five innings, Chad Billingsley six in 7.2 innings, and Ted Lilly has pitched just two innings. At this point Billingsley remains the favorite as long as his troublesome right elbow holds up. He was on track for a career-best 2.7 BB/9 last year, and before getting hurt, Billingsley had increased his K/9 rate year over year from 7.3 to 7.7 and his velocity remained steady with a 91.5 mph average fastball. That said, how often do you hear Tommy John surgery rumors about a guy and then see those rumors never come to fruition? The term "ticking time bomb" certainly applies here, but if you can get him at a significant discount, I'd probably take the plunge.
Dbacks #5 starter
The early spring games have yet to results in a front-runner among competitors Tyler Skaggs, Randall Delgado, and Pat Corbin. Skaggs and Delgado have combined to allow 10 runs in just 5.1 innings while Corbin has fanned nine in just six innings, but his ERA sits at 6.0. Looking beyond the numbers however, Skaggs is easily the guy with the most upside, and his three shutout innings against Team Mexico Tuesday aren't reflected in his spring stats and are likely a direct results of some extra bullpen work this week. Skaggs failed to impress in six MLB starts last year (5.83 ERA, 6.4 K/9, 4.0 BB/9), but his upside remains high.
Who's on short for Arizona?
It sure appears to be Cliff Pennington at this point. After Kevin Towers went out and procured more than his share of no-hit shortstops this winter (Didi Gregorius being the other), the favorite immediately became Pennington after he was given a two-year $5 million deal. Pennington is working on shortening his swing this spring, and so far the results are encouraging - 7-for-18. He's even homered and stolen as couple of bases. Given Pennington is a career .249 hitter in over 2000 PA's to go with an 81.4 AB/HR rate, it's hard to be optimistic, but he'll steal a few bases. Even if he struggled to hit .260, Pennington may have some short-term NL-only value early in the year.
What role could Kyle Blanks play in San Diego this year?
Kyle Blanks has been the runaway star of Padres' camp so far this year, starting off 12-for-28 (2 HR, 6 XBH) with a 5:6 K:BB in the early going. Blanks has always struggled with left-handers and with staying healthy, but his 10.2 BB% is solid and he can hit the ball a long way. The other big issue is his inability to make regular contact (ugly career 64% contact rate), but he's still just 26 and as a guy who once hit .325/.404/.514 as a 21 year-old in AA, Blanks shouldn't be written off in deeper formats. The big question: where will he play? Triple-A Tuscon is certainly an option, but if Blanks continues to hit, he could see some time at first base and the outfield corners. The big issue there however is that the Padres already have left-handed hitting regulars there, so a trade is probably the best scenario for Blanks' fantasy owners. Carlos Quentin is always good for an injury or two, but until someone goes down, Blanks will likely find himself in Triple-A regardless of how he does this spring.
Update on the San Diego 2B job
Logan Forsythe is dealing with a case of plantar fasciitis, giving top prospect Jedd Gyroko a very early leg up on the starting job. Gyorko has cooled off since a hot start, but he still has three homers for a team that is going to struggling to find power outside of Chase Headley. Gyorko is 7-for-30 with a 7:2 K:BB, but six of those hits have gone for extra bases. Forsythe is 5-for-20 with a pair of triples, so this battle is still very much on. Forsythe hit .273/.343/.390 with six homers in 350 at-bats for the Padres last year. He's never hit for much power, but Forsythe could profile as a solid #2 hitter given he makes good contact and has as decent batting eye. I still wouldn't way him outside of the deepest of league. Gyorko is the guy you want here, but obviously only if he wins the job.
Domonic Brown (OF-PHI) - Perhaps we're finally seeing the Domonic Brown that made him one of the top prospects in the game. Brown leads the league in hits so far this spring with 16, and his .432/.523/.700 slash line is eye-popping. Two of those hits were off a fairly tough lefty, David Price, so he's hitting everyone from soon-to-be grocery baggers to AL Cy Young winners. He's homered three times and his K:BB is a solid 5:6. Brown is just a .235/.316/.396 career hitter, but at age 25, this could be the year he takes a big step forward.
Zach McAllister (P-CLE) - McAllister tossed four scoreless innings Sunday and was immediately informed that he had won a spot in the Cleveland rotation. He's fanned 11 in seven innings and should open as the team's fourth starter. McAllister posted a 4.24 ERA in 22 starts for Cleveland last year and his peripherals supported perhaps an even lower ERA - 7.9 K/9, 2.7 BB/9. McAllister has always exhibited very good control, posting a 1.8 BB/9 in his last full minor league season. He's never been a big strikeout guy, but with a fastball averaging a tick over 92 mph last year, his stuff supports last year's K rate. If McAllister can do a better job keeping the ball on the ground this year (1.4 HR/9), it's not a stretch to think he can be the team's top starter.
Roberto Hernandez (a.k.a. Fausto Carmona P-TB) - Hernandez is looking more and more like a favorite over Jeff Niemann for the team's fifth starter job according to the Rays' beat writer Marc Topkin. It's a curious comment given Niemann had allowed just two runs on no walks with six strikeouts in 8.1 innings entering Sunday's action. Hernandez has a 4:4 K:BB with two runs allowed through six. Perhaps the thought here is that the Rays would like to dump Niemann's salary and make a path clearer for Chris Archer. Hernandez's last full season came in 2011 in which he posted a 5.25 ERA and 5.2 K/9 for the Indians, so pitching in the AL East (even against a depleted Yankees lineup) probably isn't going to lead to good results.
Rick Porcello (SP-Det) - Porcello is batting with Drew Smyly to be the team's fifth starter, a battle that if Porcello loses, could result in a trade. He's made a pretty good case so far with a 2.08 ERA in 13 innings with a league-leading 14 strikeouts and zero walks. There's even been some speculation that the Tigers could use Porcello as a closer given the struggles of Bruce Rondon, but that's probably unlikely at this point. Impressively, Porcello had 120 big league starts under his belt before turning 24 in December, but he's yet to take that expected step forward. There were encouraging signs last year, as Porcello's average fastball was a career-best 92 mph and he bumped his K/9 up to 5.5 from 5.1 in 2011. Porcello's GB/FB rate also trended up from 1.7 to 2.2, and at age 24, further progress wouldn't surprise.
Donnie Joseph (RP-KC) - This of course is digging deep, but the 25 year-old left-handed Joseph is a guy to watch for as a potential source of saves at some point this year. Joseph has pitched five innings this spring, allowing a run on two hits with a 10:0 K:BB. In case you think that's flukish, here are a few of his K/9 rates in recent minor league stops: 13.5, 15.7, 14.4, 10.2, 13.8. Joseph has some experience as a minor league closer, and though he'd have to leapfrog guys like Greg Holland and Aaron Crow, keep an eye on his usage early in the year.
Dee Gordon (SS-LAD) - Gordon is 4-for-14 with six walks, a .500 OBP, and five stolen bases so far this spring. With Hanley Ramirez guaranteed one spot on the left side of the infield, Gordon is essentially battling Luis Cruz for a starting spot. By all accounts though, Gordon is expected to open the season in Triple-A to gain strength and work on his pitch recognition. Gordon is one of those guys who can steal 40 bases in his sleep, but if he wants a regular gig, he's going to have to do better than a 0.32 EYE and 6.1% BB% as a leadoff guy given his utter lack of power. Perhaps the Dodgers try and convert him to 2B in Albuquerque, as there's no clear long-term successor to Mark Ellis (unless you want to discuss impending free agent Robinson Cano).
David Phelps (SP-NYY) - Phelps is doing all he can to win a starting spot, perhaps at the expense of Ivan Nova. Phelps tossed five scoreless innings and now has a 0.64 ERA in 14 innings. His 6:3 K:BB isn't that impressive, but Phelps did have a 3.34 ERAW and 8.7 K/9 for the Yankees last year, so we know he can miss bats. Nova has pitched well this spring too, so the most likely scenario has Phelps opening in the bullpen. He's a sleeper worth watching.
Dan Haren (SP-WAS) - Haren appears healthy this spring after signing a one-year $13 million deal in the offseason. Haren has allowed four runs in nine innings with a 7:1 K:BB and appears on track to be the team's #4 starter in a stacked Nationals' rotation. Back and hip injuries are likely to blame for Haren's career-worst 88.5 mph average fastball last year, but he's been throwing harder this spring already, touching as high as 93-94 while perhaps averaging in the 90.5 mph range. Expect a healthy Haren to do a far better job keeping the ball down in the zone this year, and with that we can expect last year's career-worst 1.4 HR/9 to trend down significantly.
Peter Bourjos (OF-LAA) - It's hard to know exactly what to make of Bourjos offensively. With 49 XBH and 22 steals, his 2011 rookie season offered plenty of potential. Last year in 195 at-bats, Bourjos hit just .220. His 0.25 career EYE speaks to the main concern, as Bourjos has the speed to steal 30-40 bases and hit double-digit home runs, but he's not going to have much in the way of fantasy value hitting at the bottom of the lineup. Showing progress in his plate discipline could bump Bourjos to at or near the top of the lineup, and considering the big bats that would follow, Bourjos' value would jump significantly. So far this spring Bourjos is batting .333 (three triples) with an 8:3 K:BB, so he's off to a solid start. Bourjos could possibly lose time to Vernon Wells if he gets off to a slow start.
Yasiel Puig (OF-LAD) - The Dodgers have to like what they are seeing from their $42 million investment so far this spring, as Puig is 12-for-28 with three doubles and a home run. It's hard to fault a .429 average, but we would like to see better than an 8:0 K:BB. Puig has looked very athletic running the bases and playing the field, and there is certainly some thunder in his bat. You certainly have to question that trade with Boston, as not dealing for a $100MM+ Crawford would have allowed LA to slot Puig in the outfield. They could have then signed Josh Hamilton and had him or Andre Ethier play first base. Water under the bridge, but at this point if the Dodgers want to clear a spot for Puig this year or next, the most likely scenario is an Ethier trade. Puig logged just 82 minor league at-bats after signing last year, but the results were impressive - five homers and a 1.076 OPS. He's one to watch.
Comment -
if kemp can stay healthy,hes a monsterComment -
3B Adrian Beltre Beltre had a career year (36 HR/103 RBI) at 33, despite a drop in his XBH% (13.3 to 11.8). I don't see him exceeding his production in 2013 now that Hamilton is out of the lineup.
3B Alberto Callaspo Not a power guy despite his position (3B), more of a contact hitter (90% contact rate). BHIP (.231) was unlucky last season which cost him 15-20 in BA. His 1.2 GB/FB ratio keeps him from being a perennial .300 hitter. Will score runs and bat runs in, if he can maintain an everyday job.
3B Alex Liddi Has monster power potential, but contact rate is abysmal (67%) as evidenced by his .250ish (AAA BA). Needs more seasoning before he's given another shot.
3B Aramis Ramirez Monster 2nd half (18/60/.333), but 14% XBH with decline in LD% (23 to 19) indicates that there was some luck involved. Still a decent option, but I'm not paying for 2012.
3B Brett Lawrie After posting 9 HRs in 150 Abs in '11, Lawrie only finished with 11 in almost 500 Abs. His 14% XBH rate dwindled down to a meager 8% in '12. Lawie has excellent contact rate (83%) but high GB/FB ratio (1.6) prevents him from emerging into a big HR guy in 2013. BA will rise as will his RBI rates.
3B Chase Headley Chase had good HR distance on his HRs last season (397), but his 21% FB/HR ratio is just not sustainable despite a 102 bat speed...especially in PETCO. His 2nd half line of 23/77/.300 was one of the best in all of baseball last season, but as mentioned, it will be a very difficult feat to repeat even with the fences coming in.
3B Chris Johnson Performed well enough in 2nd half to win a starting role (9/42/.282), but with Eric Chavez penciled in as a starter, he'll have to continue to show improvement in his foundation indicators (.23 EYE).
3B Chris Nelson Could see regular playing time this season after showing ability to hit both RHP/LHP in his first semi regular season. His BA is more of an illusion however as his .311 Singles rate elevated his BA by 20-30 points. Subpar contact rate (78%) likely keeps him in the 270 range. Power is legit as a 15-20 HR guy...but will have to get off to strong start to keep himself as a regular.
3B David Freese Freeze's 20% HR/FB rate was inflated based on career norms and distance/batted ball speed indicators...but that only accounted for an extra 3-4 last season. Continues to defy Balls it into Play Success indicators as he has consistently posted an inflated Singles % (.303) and continues to maintain a .300 average.
3B David Wright As expected with the new Citi dimensions, Wright's XBH% returned to a elite level 11% in '12. Unfortunately there wasn't enough conversion on those XBH as evidenced by the 21 HRs. His 12.2 FB/HR rate is still well below his historical norms of 15-16%. Additionally his BA of .306 was partially fueled by a lucky BHIP (.281). His contact rate of 82% does make him a potential 300 hitter, but with a 1.20 GB/FB ratio, his mean should be closer to .285-.290. Additionally his RS% of only .35 is directly attributable to the lack of offense behind him in the batting order, and he won't get much help there in 2013 either.
Comment -
I think Ross Detweiller has insane value since you can draft him in the last round in most draft settings.Comment -
what do you guys think about lester/lackey/the sox pitchers in general? lester is having a great spring i was watching him throw against tampa the other day, his breaking ball looked deadly...lackey could be a late round steal as well...not sure his current ADP but he is finally healthy and hitting 91-92mph on his fastball againComment -
The players you don't have to worry about are the dodgers. They will continue to be horrible.Comment -
Just heard that Chase Headley broke his thumb. Paper said 2 weeks.
I Wonder if this could be a nagging thing...
Comment -
I enjoyed the little update on Donnie Joseph. I was disappointed the Reds traded him, but glad to see him pitching well.Comment -
Lots to read but useful notes thanksComment
