UFC on FOX 5: Henderson vs. Diaz (Dec 08)

**Beelzebubzy** · 12-07-12, 09:30 PM

I am on Phan here as soon as he hits +250

Not a big Siver fan, but I think Phan can close teh distance and land body shots. Siver doesnt throw a high quantity of strikes and Phan does and is pretty accurate. I think Phan can steal rounds

**NunyaBidness** · 12-07-12, 09:32 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

I am on Phan here as soon as he hits +250

Not a big Siver fan, but I think Phan can close teh distance and land body shots. Siver doesnt throw a high quantity of strikes and Phan does and is pretty accurate. I think Phan can steal rounds

Not if Leonard Garcia steals them first.

**zoo youk** · 12-07-12, 09:47 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

I am on Phan here as soon as he hits +250

Not a big Siver fan, but I think Phan can close teh distance and land body shots. Siver doesnt throw a high quantity of strikes and Phan does and is pretty accurate. I think Phan can steal rounds

point is Siver should be able to eat them shots without a single problem and take him to the ground right away

**Beelzebubzy** · 12-07-12, 09:48 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Not if Leonard Garcia steals them first.

Garcia 2.5 point handicap is the play for the card

Also I have a Max Bet if Cecil Peoples refs, All in on Machida

**Beelzebubzy** · 12-07-12, 09:49 PM

Originally posted by zoo youk

point is Siver should be able to eat them shots without a single problem and take him to the ground right away

I think sivers gameplan is to use kicks and keep this at a distance, Phan is overrated BJJ black Belt

**PunisherIND** · 12-07-12, 09:50 PM

henry martinez missed weight by 3 lbs.

going to make a small play on crunkshack @ -145

**Beelzebubzy** · 12-07-12, 09:51 PM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

henry martinez missed weight by 3 lbs.

going to make a small play on crunkshack @ -145

chasing the scale?

I wanna find a stat that shows the WL record of fighters that miss weight

**zoo youk** · 12-07-12, 09:55 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

I think sivers gameplan is to use kicks and keep this at a distance, Phan is overrated BJJ black Belt

if that is game plan i would jump all over Phan but you'd have to me an absolute moron to be a dude of Sivers stature and do that.

**Beelzebubzy** · 12-07-12, 09:57 PM

Originally posted by zoo youk

if that is game plan i would jump all over Phan but you'd have to me an absolute moron to be a dude of Sivers stature and do that.

outstruck by Pearson and Fisher. I like +250 that Phan can do it.

But I could be wrong and I will be wrong again. That I can guarantee

**gabe** · 12-07-12, 10:09 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

I am on Phan here as soon as he hits +250

Not a big Siver fan, but I think Phan can close teh distance and land body shots. Siver doesnt throw a high quantity of strikes and Phan does and is pretty accurate. I think Phan can steal rounds

Money been coming in on Phan...

**PunisherIND** · 12-07-12, 10:16 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

chasing the scale?

I wanna find a stat that shows the WL record of fighters that miss weight

would be good to know. would also be good to know W-L records depending on how much they missed weight by.

**Sacrelicious** · 12-07-12, 10:23 PM

Anyone else notice that during the weigh ins BJ Penn looked...well...... exactally the same as always?

So much for that whole "getting in better shape" thing.

**eligibletackle** · 12-07-12, 11:04 PM

I usually like(d) Siver but still can't get over how Pearson schooled him. I don't think I've bet on Siver since b/c it looked like the book on how to beat him got written and broadcasted. Phan might have more exploitable holes in his game than Siver but he seems like a cerebral fighter w/ a striking accumen good enough to replicate Pearson's performance of feints to keep the counterstriker off balance

**Crassus** · 12-07-12, 11:19 PM

Originally posted by Sacrelicious

Anyone else notice that during the weigh ins BJ Penn looked...well...... exactally the same as always?

So much for that whole "getting in better shape" thing.

His BF % looked to be much lower than usual in my opinion

**Mercersux** · 12-07-12, 11:25 PM

Originally posted by Crassus

His BF % looked to be much lower than usual in my opinion

agreed. Came in looking respectable. I've seen him look much worse on weigh ins so this is good for him. He also doesn't have the type of build where he'd look more cut up than he was today. Never has had a very muscular build.

**GunShard** · 12-08-12, 12:24 AM

Great fight card.

**gabe** · 12-08-12, 12:44 AM

Originally posted by GunShard

Great fight card.

Thanks, bro. Did my best.

**MMAbetMASTA** · 12-08-12, 01:52 AM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

I am on Phan here as soon as he hits +250

Not a big Siver fan, but I think Phan can close teh distance and land body shots. Siver doesnt throw a high quantity of strikes and Phan does and is pretty accurate. I think Phan can steal rounds

I hope you're wrong, or else I'm in for a losing night no matter what... phan might throw more and he is pretty accurate, I def agree.. but he gets tagged a lot, which he doesn't respond well too when facing an opponent with legit striking power. While he rightly beat leonard twice and miller, he got tagged good in both fights and I think siver is 10x the striker of both those men.. Phan could very well throw and possibly land more, but I think its siver's strikes that will do the most damage and look the more impressive. You guys are making me scared tho, I thought everyone would be on siver here!

**MMAbetMASTA** · 12-08-12, 01:59 AM

Originally posted by Sacrelicious

Anyone else notice that during the weigh ins BJ Penn looked...well...... exactally the same as always?

So much for that whole "getting in better shape" thing.

the whole bj is back or the new bj thing has truly been repetitive... Its annoying to be honest. I'll eat my words and feel shameful if I'm wrong, but heard all this before, think he's getting smashed bad tomorrow night

**MMAbetMASTA** · 12-08-12, 02:00 AM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

henry martinez missed weight by 3 lbs.

going to make a small play on crunkshack @ -145

word!

waiting to do the same, he's been at -165 on my book all day... Hoping he gets down to 150 range and taking it for a half line.

**Educ8d Degener8** · 12-08-12, 02:15 AM

Originally posted by Crassus

His BF % looked to be much lower than usual in my opinion

How was his rooster?

**Sacrelicious** · 12-08-12, 02:39 AM

Originally posted by MMAbetMASTA

the whole bj is back or the new bj thing has truly been repetitive... Its annoying to be honest. I'll eat my words and feel shameful if I'm wrong, but heard all this before, think he's getting smashed bad tomorrow night

He is. Its hard to be a new anything after your a dozen years into your career. Rory looked absolutely huge, its going to be ridiculous tomorrow when Rory is probably around 190.

**KDog13** · 12-08-12, 03:07 AM

Avid MMA fan, can't wait for this card to start!

Too bad I wasn't here for the Macau card, I hit every fight. This card though is a tough one, lot of good fights. I'll be sure to post my picks, I got a few upsets I'm liking to that I'll share. I'll also be sure to post why I'm picking who, so I come off like I actually know something to you guys. This is my religion lol.

**Vaughany** · 12-08-12, 04:09 AM

Originally posted by MMAbetMASTA

I hope you're wrong, or else I'm in for a losing night no matter what... phan might throw more and he is pretty accurate, I def agree.. but he gets tagged a lot, which he doesn't respond well too when facing an opponent with legit striking power. While he rightly beat leonard twice and miller, he got tagged good in both fights and I think siver is 10x the striker of both those men.. Phan could very well throw and possibly land more, but I think its siver's strikes that will do the most damage and look the more impressive. You guys are making me scared tho, I thought everyone would be on siver here!

yep, Cole Miller is one of the most over-rated fighters in UFC IMO and has very limited stand-up, and obviously I dont need to say anything about Leonard Garcia. I thought Diego Nunes was gonna steal a decision against Siver because of high volume flashy style but that didnt work out too well! Phan's body shots are my only concern really

**Vaughany** · 12-08-12, 04:12 AM

.....

**Sacrelicious** · 12-08-12, 04:27 AM

"get the penetrate outta my face"

**JamesKim** · 12-08-12, 05:23 AM

Man I want Rory to get his ass beat so bad.

Anyways. I bet on Phan, Siver is overrated and Phan is quite underrated. I think the fight is pretty even, so I went with the better odds.

BJ should win the 1st round pretty handily, and he seems to be in slightly better shape than usual so I think he may win the 2nd. The odds are good for Penn so I chose him. I think he can win the 1st round convincingly, edge out the 2nd and survive the 3rd for the UD. Either that or he finishes Rory in the 1st.

Gus should dominate Shogun. Not just due to skill, but I think the style of Gus should match up really well for him. I bet on Gus to win by UD at +110, which I thought was really good odds. I doubt he's finishing Shogun, that beating he took from Jones is probably one of the worst beatdowns we've seen in MMA, but he managed to survive for a while. The fight is only 3 rounds and I can't see Gus doing the same type of damage. I also straight bet on Shogun for the hedge, it's really hard not to hedge this fight when Shogun will be dangerous for all 3 rounds.

I bet pretty big on Nate. I really think he will not just win this fight, but win in a very dominating and convincing fashion. Benson isn't big or strong enough to push Nate around, and Nate will tee off on him. I was tempted to bet by finish, but Benson is very durable. Both the Diaz brothers are also taller than what they are stated, we're going to see Benson get dwarfed at fight time. It was pretty apparent at the weigh in as well. Condit and Nick Diaz were the same height, with Nick being slightly taller during face off. Condit dwarfed GSP. Nate is just as tall or slightly taller than Nick. So basically Nate is going to be around 5-6 inches taller than Benson with a 76 inch reach. Also, the narrow boxing stance that Nate uses with his shoulder turned, as well as the fact that he likes to lean forward will likely mean that he will be able to match the kicking distance of Benson with his punches. I think Benson will get bullied around the cage, just as Diaz bullied Cerrone around.

I bet on Brown, not because of some profound insight, but because everyone seems to be going with him.

**Crassus** · 12-08-12, 08:59 AM

Originally posted by Sacrelicious

"get the penetrate outta my face"

Rory had a rough cut. Looks huge.

**Beelzebubzy** · 12-08-12, 09:05 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

yep, Cole Miller is one of the most over-rated fighters in UFC IMO and has very limited stand-up, and obviously I dont need to say anything about Leonard Garcia. I thought Diego Nunes was gonna steal a decision against Siver because of high volume flashy style but that didnt work out too well! Phan's body shots are my only concern really

I agree. I just dont see a great path of victory for Siver. Phans chin is great and all of sivers wins have been a decsion except over Winner as of late. NEvertheless, if this goes to a decision, I am hoping that the judges could screw up. And as V stated, I think the body shots can hurt Siver who is older (33) for a smaller wieght, and teh speed advantage goes to Phan easily.

Best of luck Butter tooth.

Love,
Ignorant American

**Sacrelicious** · 12-08-12, 09:56 AM

Originally posted by Crassus

Rory had a rough cut. Looks huge.

He looks massive. I dont see him being at welterweight for too long, not only because GSP is at the top but also because he could make a go of middleweight with his frame in a few years once he grows into it. He has also talked about moving up in a few years.

**Thor4140** · 12-08-12, 10:50 AM

Originally posted by zoo youk

i would double up on Siver. never been so confident in a bet.

i don't know man. You are taking a guy at high odds who is overrated fighting another guy who is overrated. If the odds were even i take Siver just for the strength angle but i think Nams boxin is technically better and could possibly be the difference so it is a risky bet. Siver kicks and strength could be the end of Nam tonight. Just a hard fight to pick in my opinion and taking these high odds is way to risky for my blood.

**Thor4140** · 12-08-12, 10:56 AM

Any of you guys have a favorite fighter who's opinion u like to hear?
Florian seems to say a lot of what i see. Sonnen could be the Brandon Lang of fight betting in my opinion.

**PunisherIND** · 12-08-12, 11:17 AM

Originally posted by Thor4140

Any of you guys have a favorite fighter who's opinion u like to hear?
Florian seems to say a lot of what i see. Sonnen could be the Brandon Lang of fight betting in my opinion.

i think danny downes is pretty accurate. but by and large, i take their opinions with a grain of salt as i believe they are all biased towards other fighters that they train with.

**PunisherIND** · 12-08-12, 11:58 AM

Bubz, phan is +255 on 5d reduced

**gabe** · 12-08-12, 01:11 PM

What are reduced lines?