UFC on Fox 4: Shogun vs. Vera

THE_LOCKSMITH · 07-30-12, 06:24 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

Winner gets title shot confirmed
thank you Dana. Hopefully jones wins

don't see how they can give Vera a shot if he pulls this out somehow, guy has lost 4 straight (didn't beat Marshall)

Kaladarus · 07-30-12, 06:38 PM

Marketing Vera after he got destroyed by Jones in the first round and was temporarily kicked out of the UFC about a year ago sounds like fun. Dana must have a lot of money on Shogun here.

THE_LOCKSMITH · 07-30-12, 08:04 PM

money coming in on Johnson

Crassus · 07-30-12, 08:20 PM

Originally posted by Kaladarus

Marketing Vera after he got destroyed by Jones in the first round and was temporarily kicked out of the UFC about a year ago sounds like fun. Dana must have a lot of money on Shogun here.

Maybe he's betting on a draw and messin with the odds. A draw means neither is No. 1 contender.

Hannibal · 07-30-12, 09:55 PM

Originally posted by THE_LOCKSMITH

money coming in on Johnson

Johnson an easy play here..
he looked very sharp on maguire, both on the feet and threatening subs on the ground.

No way he should be that big a dog. Swick was never that good.... the UFC has passed him by

gabe · 07-30-12, 09:59 PM

Originally posted by Hannibal

Johnson an easy play here..
he looked very sharp on maguire, both on the feet and threatening subs on the ground.

No way he should be that big a dog. Swick was never that good.... the UFC has passed him by

looked sharp? you mean the rookie mistake he made when he got submitted?

Educ8d Degener8 · 07-30-12, 10:04 PM

If Vera somehow pulls off the upset, Dana will just go back on his word. He's done it to guys promised shitle tots in the past.

Dillonious Monk · 07-30-12, 10:04 PM

I think Swick will take that fight...wouldn't bet it, though. I'll just wait this one out and see how he does in his first fight back from injury.

dww123 · 07-30-12, 10:09 PM

Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8

If Vera somehow pulls off the upset, Dana will just go back on his word. He's done it to guys promised shitle tots in the past.

I think he'll go back on his word regardless of who wins. He's trying to build interest in the fight. Nothing more.

Educ8d Degener8 · 07-30-12, 10:13 PM

Originally posted by dww123

I think he'll go back on his word regardless of who wins. He's trying to build interest in the fight. Nothing more.

Yeah, I can see that as well. Unless they are trying to buy time to get Gustafsson and/or Glover a couple more W's to build their profiles...

Hannibal · 07-30-12, 10:15 PM

Originally posted by gabe

looked sharp? you mean the rookie mistake he made when he got submitted?

Maguire was expected to submit him..i'm surprised it took that long

gabe · 07-30-12, 11:10 PM

Originally posted by Hannibal

Maguire was expected to submit him..i'm surprised it took that long

nothing was expected in that fight. you're wrong about that, and you're wrong about DJ looking sharp in that fight.

Hannibal · 07-30-12, 11:25 PM

Do you even know what fight you are watching??
Everyone and their grandmother was on Maguire here. Everyone expected jm to get him down easily and own him on the ground.

There were moments in that fight where Maguire was in danger of being submitted. He was getting the shit kicked out of his legs as well. I'm sure everyone that had money on him was shitting.

But you didnt bet this fight im sure... because you didnt expect anything, right?
So basically you're saying... "I don't know shit"...rough translation
Then why are you even commenting about this fight?

gabe · 07-31-12, 12:06 AM

Originally posted by Hannibal

Do you even know what fight you are watching??
Everyone and their grandmother was on Maguire here. Everyone expected jm to get him down easily and own him on the ground.

There were moments in that fight where Maguire was in danger of being submitted. He was getting the shit kicked out of his legs as well. I'm sure everyone that had money on him was shitting.

But you didnt bet this fight im sure... because you didnt expect anything, right?
So basically you're saying... "I don't know shit"...rough translation
Then why are you even commenting about this fight?

Huh? I had a big play on Maguire in that fight. I don't remember you saying you expected Maguire to win that fight by submission. Please link me to the post which you said that. That was supposed to be a close fight, as the lines suggested, so it's ridiculous to say that everybody expected Maguire to submit him. If anything, people expected Maguire to win a decision.

You're outta yer mind, friend. XO

eligibletackle · 07-31-12, 03:59 AM

Swick is too much of a question mark - why bother arguing if Johnson is making amateur level mistakes, you got a guy coming off a 2+yr layoff who was last seen getting clubbed by paolo thiago, what was least expected in terms of how the standup portoin of their fight would happened. I think Swick is overpriced and Johnson is overrated, but if I lean, it's to Johnson, and if you were to argue about a rookie mistake, it's the exact one GSP made - so let's not think less of a guys grappling ability b/c they got subbed as a counter for being overly aggressive in their own submission game.

I'm really trying to figure out how the F Machida/Bader goes down. I don't think I'll know but saw Machida by Dec (+205) and thought it wasn't half bad at all.

AdamB · 07-31-12, 04:12 AM

I agree with Machida by decision, but just spotted a nice line on PaddyPower - Machida by KO or Decision -225. Thoughts on those odds? I am looking at hitting that line with a smaller play on Machida by decision.

Joe_Shabadoo · 07-31-12, 04:59 AM

I'm liking the small chalk at -125 for the fight going the distance, just in case Bader can pull off some LNP.

Oblivian · 07-31-12, 08:29 AM

Even disregarding Swick's long layoff, I'm not sure he should be favored that high. When you factor in his layoff, I can't fathom someone playing him. I'm interested to see where the line settles.

BIGDAY · 07-31-12, 08:48 AM

Going to a freeking wedding this Saturday.

Reception Bar better have the TV on FOX!

Beelzebubzy · 07-31-12, 08:49 AM

Played Johnson small at +200
this is a tailor made opponent for swick - stand up guy with no ko power and sub par wrestling
i am picking dj because of the layoff

gabe · 07-31-12, 11:58 AM

He flash KO'd Harvison, so I wouldn't say he has NO power

TheCalculator · 07-31-12, 12:02 PM

Not to mention Swick has a INCURABLE medical condition that affected his training for years to the point where he stopped fighting. I'm sure he's learned to live with it and train with it. However -- if it takes away 10% of his power, cardio and conditioning... that could be the difference between winning and losing.

gabe · 07-31-12, 01:23 PM

I would love to fade Mike Swick, but I don't think Harvison is the guy to count on to beat him. I mean, he was dominated by Amir Sadollah...

The Fobfather · 07-31-12, 01:41 PM

Rest of the odds just released on Sportsbook.


<a href="http://www.bestfightodds.com" target="_blank"><img src="http://www.bestfightodds.com/events/546.png" alt="BestFightOdds.com" style="width: 216px; border: 0;" /></a>

The Fobfather · 07-31-12, 01:42 PM

So far, liking Omigawa at +120.

Crassus · 07-31-12, 01:46 PM

Davis at anything less than -1000 is a steal in my opinion.

The Fobfather · 07-31-12, 01:55 PM

Originally posted by Crassus

Davis at anything less than -1000 is a steal in my opinion.

Crassus any links to Prado's fights?

Crassus · 07-31-12, 02:08 PM

Originally posted by The Fobfather

Crassus any links to Prado's fights?

Against the impressive 3-3 (1-2 at that time) wellington guilherme second most recent fight

he one guy he fought that had a winning record

most recent fight against the highly touted 0-1 Aldo Sultao.

Guy's promising but Phil Davis is world class.

Mercersux · 07-31-12, 02:35 PM

Damn, was hoping Grispi might come in as a dog. Think he starts to get back his old form come this fight. I dunno for some reason i just think Brandon Vera pulls the upset in the ME. I know im crazy but just a hunch. Now actually betting on that hunch is another story but i just may. I say at the least either Vera or Bader wins.

DocPolish · 07-31-12, 02:40 PM

I am with you, part of me thinks at least one of them (Bader/Vera) will find a way to win. Whether it's worth putting money on that is another story.

Vaughany · 07-31-12, 05:21 PM

Link Not Working - Removed-)

Vaughany · 07-31-12, 05:23 PM

Originally posted by Mercersux

Damn, was hoping Grispi might come in as a dog. Think he starts to get back his old form come this fight. I dunno for some reason i just think Brandon Vera pulls the upset in the ME. I know im crazy but just a hunch. Now actually betting on that hunch is another story but i just may. I say at the least either Vera or Bader wins.

Grispi should be slight dog IMO, will be annoyed if Yahya's odds go down to Evens or something by time odds are released on European sportsbook or youwin

Vaughany · 07-31-12, 05:24 PM

Mercersux · 07-31-12, 05:35 PM

Thanks for posting that man. Love watching them but always forget to look up to see when new ones are posted. props !

Beelzebubzy · 07-31-12, 08:47 PM

2 Yahya at +150 courtesy of our pals at Betonline

Line should be closer like -150 +120
Grispi obviously now and always will have a size advantage, but cardio and poor striking give me confidence in Rani